politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term
With Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen due to appear in court at 1900 BST in New York there’s been some movement on the “Will Trump complete a full first term” betting on Betfair.
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First.
Trump is a reality TV show writ large. If the end comes, I reckon it'll come from a direction few, if any, are expecting.0 -
Exit, pursued by a bearJosiasJessop said:First.
Trump is a reality TV show writ large. If the end comes, I reckon it'll come from a direction few, if any, are expecting.0 -
steve hawkes - @steve_hawkes: Unbelievable - Amber Rudd says she'll be meeting Commonwealth High Commissioners this week to find out if any Windrush immigrants have been deported
It appears Home Office have no idea0 -
I do not think 1.35 is value at the moment.
I have, generally speaking, bet on his stubbornness to remain in post - and the lack of an obvious route to getting rid of him (like Corbyn in that respect). It's just that 35% for almost 3 years is not worth it. We could well be at 1.25-3 in a year's time which is an investment return, not a gambler's one.
If however things spike up again, I'll take another look at 1.5 or so.0 -
Alien abduction.JosiasJessop said:First.
Trump is a reality TV show writ large. If the end comes, I reckon it'll come from a direction few, if any, are expecting.0 -
Has Stormy Daniels been on the receiving end of the Russian Probe?
(Sorry)0 -
OK, I'm confused. Is the Windrush fiasco the dead cat to divert attention from the debate about the Syria bombings or is the debate about the Syria bombings the dead cat to divert attention from the Windrush fiasco?
Or are the government just generally crap?0 -
I think I have money on Trump staying in post with Ladbrokes, but their website seems to have intentionally changed (And not for the better) so you can't actually view long term bets properly there.TheWhiteRabbit said:I do not think 1.35 is value at the moment.
I have, generally speaking, bet on his stubbornness to remain in post - and the lack of an obvious route to getting rid of him (like Corbyn in that respect). It's just that 35% for almost 3 years is not worth it. We could well be at 1.25-3 in a year's time which is an investment return, not a gambler's one.
If however things spike up again, I'll take another look at 1.5 or so.0 -
I take it that I'd rather not know what the completion of "Michael Cohen's cigar bu.." is in the screenshot?0
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That would be a Cuban Probe, rather than a Russian Probe.Richard_Nabavi said:I take it that I'd rather not know what the completion of "Michael Cohen's cigar bu.." is in the screenshot?
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McVey sprinkling her special brand of fairy dust up north.
https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/9858873021645455360 -
I've been selling the earliest year in the Betfair exit market almost continually since he was elected - albeit in small size given the illiquidity of the market.
Given the near impossibility, absent death, of him going this year, seems the value play.0 -
If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?0
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Rudd speaking now.0
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Personal view: the recent shenanigans will not prise Trump from the White House, but they increase the chance of a serious challenger in the primaries.
It might be worth thinking about who that might be, and betting accordingly. I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality, or from the pro-business wing, who worry about the impact of tariffs and a potential trade war.0 -
Another female - Victoria Atkins maybeGIN1138 said:If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?
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Gavin Williamson to Home, Penny Morduant to Defence, Rory Stewart to DfIDBig_G_NorthWales said:
Another female - Victoria Atkins maybeGIN1138 said:If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?
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David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said0
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Boris to Home Office. Theresa May will muse that not many survive it to go on to become PM.0
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Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at allBig_G_NorthWales said:David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said
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Yes and no. I agree with the conclusion but the more likely premise is that a deal is made that Trump won't be ousted in return for agreeing not to run for a second term. Either way, there will be a new name on the ballot.rcs1000 said:Personal view: the recent shenanigans will not prise Trump from the White House, but they increase the chance of a serious challenger in the primaries.
It might be worth thinking about who that might be, and betting accordingly. I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality, or from the pro-business wing, who worry about the impact of tariffs and a potential trade war.0 -
Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at allBig_G_NorthWales said:David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said
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My money is on Judge Kimba Wood calling BS on most of Cohen's arguments.
I think she'll allow a fairly broad trawl through the documents - and the idea that Cohen should get to say which are or are not privileged is utterly ridiculous. But then again Cohen gives every indication of being a thug rather than an attorney.0 -
Wow, she really asked that? That's something the Home Office should know.MarqueeMark said:
Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of does - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at allBig_G_NorthWales said:David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said
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It is drawing anger and mockery. Not a good lookMarqueeMark said:
Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of does - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at allBig_G_NorthWales said:David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said
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Abbott has a wide open goal and cocks up requiring intervention from the speaker. She really is a liabilityBig_G_NorthWales said:
It is drawing anger and mockery. Not a good lookMarqueeMark said:
Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of does - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....Big_G_NorthWales said:
Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at allBig_G_NorthWales said:David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said
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Perhaps there have been no such deportations.0
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Are the Christian right unimpressed with Trump's "personal mortality" because he's unlikely emulate Noah's 950 years ?rcs1000 said:Personal view: the recent shenanigans will not prise Trump from the White House, but they increase the chance of a serious challenger in the primaries.
It might be worth thinking about who that might be, and betting accordingly. I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality, or from the pro-business wing, who worry about the impact of tariffs and a potential trade war.
JackW is not 950 ....
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Rudd's chances of survival hang in the balance. A few more bad cases being publicised on the news over the next couple of days could finish her off.0
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She was absent over Salisbury, in denial on police numbers over knife crime, and now this.tlg86 said:Rudd's chances of survival hang in the balance. A few more bad cases being publicised on the news over the next couple of days could finish her off.
She has looked drained for some time and I am not at all sure she will survive0 -
Amber next out of the Cabinet cut from 33s to 16s.
https://m.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/#!event_details?id=226271370
Edit: thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the hint earlier.0 -
Only if there are no casesAndyJS said:0 -
It's important for reasons of Morris Dancer's Wallet that Mordaunt replaces Rudd.
Edited extra bit: FPT:
F1: Red Bull are 17 on Betfair for the Constructors' title. I think that's too long.
Current standings are:
Mercedes 85
Ferrari 84
Red Bull 55
However, Red Bull had a double DNF two races ago (Ferrari has had one DNF). And Verstappen has screwed up at least once in every race.
Extra bit 2: I think if every car had finished, we'd have something like Ferrari 95, Red Bull 80, Mercedes 70.0 -
She would be a good choice on her way to leader, maybeMorris_Dancer said:It's important for reasons of Morris Dancer's Wallet that Mordaunt replaces Rudd.
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The government should have a list of people who've been deported, and the reasons why they were removed.0
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I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.
Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.0 -
They're not very keen on his reported sexual antics either.rcs1000 said:... I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality...
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Witnessing the end of her careerMarqueeMark said:I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.
Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.0 -
Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.MarqueeMark said:I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.
Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.0 -
Generally Theresa has tried to replace like with like when one of her Ministers has had to resign.rcs1000 said:
Dominic Raab?GIN1138 said:If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?
So if Rudd goes I'd expect her to be replaced by another woman. And someone from the REMAIN side of Con.
Which I think rules out Raab on both counts?
Now I've said that watch TM promote Rabb if Rudd quits.
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She would be gone if it had not been for SyriaBig_G_NorthWales said:
Witnessing the end of her careerMarqueeMark said:I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.
Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.0 -
What was that old axiom, leaders lead?Tissue_Price said:twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985897153619996676
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Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet? 0
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Dominic Győr, surely?rcs1000 said:
Dominic Raab?GIN1138 said:If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Győr0 -
Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.MarqueeMark said:I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.
Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
Corbyn's car crash attitudes must have had an effect of increasing support for TMTissue_Price said:0 -
I suppose what we don't know it's what's gone on behind the scenes. If Rudd's boss has been arguing that the government should stand firm on this issue - until today - then Rudd is probably safe.0
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Now backed into 6/1.Sandpit said:Amber next out of the Cabinet cut from 33s to 16s.
https://m.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/#!event_details?id=226271370
Edit: thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the hint earlier.0 -
About toGIN1138 said:Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet?
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Still waiting....on shortly.GIN1138 said:Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet?
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AgreedMarqueeMark said:
Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.MarqueeMark said:I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.
Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
#popcornBig_G_NorthWales said:
About toGIN1138 said:Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet?
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It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
So what your basically saying is that you wouldn't want to risk Amber driving you home after a party?MarqueeMark said:Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.
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Watch the labour benches behind Corbyn - could be very interestingGIN1138 said:0 -
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This story has been rumbling quietly in the background for a few weeks now. A case of too little, too late?Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
God knows I've taken the piss out of Lammy plenty of times on here, but he was excellent asking about Windrush: https://order-order.com/2018/04/16/rudd-attacks-home-office/0
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Actual car crash TV :O
https://twitter.com/RobertCoxwell/status/985885473489944576/video/10 -
It's a lay imho.Sandpit said:
Now backed into 6/1.Sandpit said:Amber next out of the Cabinet cut from 33s to 16s.
https://m.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/#!event_details?id=226271370
Edit: thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the hint earlier.0 -
Forget CA / Facebook,
China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/16/the-betting-edges-a-notch-away-from-trump-completing-his-first-term/#vanilla-comments
ZTE, Huawei, DJI, all been found up to some dodgy stuff.0 -
Well there certainly won't be any lack of evidence when it comes to the insurance claim...Sandpit said:Actual car crash TV :O
https://twitter.com/RobertCoxwell/status/985885473489944576/video/1 0 -
Possibly, but she has had one or two other things to worry about, what with a chemical weapon being used in an English town and all that.RobD said:
This story has been rumbling quietly in the background for a few weeks now. A case of too little, too late?Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.
As I mentioned earlier, the odd thing is that this story should have been rumbling for over a decade. I'd still like to know why it hasn't been a problem before - employers have been legally responsible for checking immigration status since 2006.0 -
Theresa up any minute now0
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MarqueeMark said:
Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.MarqueeMark said:I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.
Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.
When did it first become an issue?
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Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
May and Boris now in chamber.0
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It will be forgotten in a few weeks.MarqueeMark said:
Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...Richard_Nabavi said:
It will be forgotten in a few weeks.MarqueeMark said:
Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
White suit.
Smart move.0 -
Mr. Gin, to be fair, I suspect the impact will be less than the financial crisis.
But Rudd should resign. And be replaced by Mordaunt. It's the right* thing to do.
*for my finances.0 -
That's probably part of the problemRichard_Nabavi said:
It will be forgotten in a few weeks.MarqueeMark said:
Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically. 0 -
Not really. Long experience has taught me not to get over-excited over transient issues in politics, and especially not over Home Office cock-ups.GIN1138 said:
Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...Richard_Nabavi said:
It will be forgotten in a few weeks.MarqueeMark said:
Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.0 -
Wrong link?FrancisUrquhart said:Forget CA / Facebook,
China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/16/the-betting-edges-a-notch-away-from-trump-completing-his-first-term/#vanilla-comments
ZTE, Huawei, DJI, all been found up to some dodgy stuff.0 -
Is the trebuchet renovation fund a bit short of cash?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Gin, to be fair, I suspect the impact will be less than the financial crisis.
But Rudd should resign. And be replaced by Mordaunt. It's the right* thing to do.
*for my finances.0 -
I wonder what level of shouty rant Jezza will deploy this afternoon. 11?0
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'Foreign power with veto on our policy.'
Corbyn in real trouble over this0 -
What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the government's?0
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I don't know. If it does turn out people have been kicked out of the country "in error" that is pretty bad...Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really. Long experience has taught me not to get over-excited over transient issues in politics.GIN1138 said:
Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...Richard_Nabavi said:
It will be forgotten in a few weeks.MarqueeMark said:
Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.
*IF*0 -
Mr. D, not unlike the NHS, there can never be enough money for the nation's trebuchet needs.0
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Sorry, correct link.DecrepitJohnL said:
Wrong link?FrancisUrquhart said:Forget CA / Facebook,
China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/16/the-betting-edges-a-notch-away-from-trump-completing-his-first-term/#vanilla-comments
ZTE, Huawei, DJI, all been found up to some dodgy stuff.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-437849900 -
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Doubt it will make a difference. The opinion is moving behind TM with Corbyn being a big factor as he repulses a large part of our NationRichard_Nabavi said:What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?
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I think it is about Bercow and his desire to posture against the government more than anything elseRichard_Nabavi said:What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?
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Agreed. Mind you, the Home Office seems to take years to do anything.GIN1138 said:
I don't know. If it does turn out people have been kicked out of the country "in error" that is pretty bad...Richard_Nabavi said:
Not really. Long experience has taught me not to get over-excited over transient issues in politics.GIN1138 said:
Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...Richard_Nabavi said:
It will be forgotten in a few weeks.MarqueeMark said:
Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....Richard_Nabavi said:
It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.MarqueeMark said:Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.
She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.
*IF*0 -
Causing the thought "Bercow is a twat" to form in the minds of the three people in the country in whose minds it was not already present.Richard_Nabavi said:What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?
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For the veto, vote Labour.Big_G_NorthWales said:'Foreign power with veto on our policy.'
Corbyn in real trouble over this
Has a ring about it.0 -
Do we know when Parliament will be reporting on Bercow's alleged bullying of his staff?oxfordsimon said:
I think it is more about Bercow and his desire to posture against the government more than anything elseRichard_Nabavi said:What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?
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May appointed Rudd as Home Sec to make May look like a decent Home Sec. (Which she wasn't, but that was the plan)
Get rid of Rudd and give Esther the gig.0 -
Never?GIN1138 said:
Do we know when Parliament will be reporting on Bercow's alleged bullying of his staff?oxfordsimon said:
I think it is more about Bercow and his desire to posture against the government more than anything elseRichard_Nabavi said:What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?
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Shot down we are only acting at the behest of US.
She is really nailing this0
