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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited April 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

With Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen due to appear in court at 1900 BST in New York there’s been some movement on the “Will Trump complete a full first term” betting on Betfair.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,092
    edited April 2018
    First.

    Trump is a reality TV show writ large. If the end comes, I reckon it'll come from a direction few, if any, are expecting.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    JosiasJessop said:

    First.

    Trump is a reality TV show writ large. If the end comes, I reckon it'll come from a direction few, if any, are expecting.

    Exit, pursued by a bear
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    steve hawkes - @steve_hawkes: Unbelievable - Amber Rudd says she'll be meeting Commonwealth High Commissioners this week to find out if any Windrush immigrants have been deported
    It appears Home Office have no idea
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    I do not think 1.35 is value at the moment.

    I have, generally speaking, bet on his stubbornness to remain in post - and the lack of an obvious route to getting rid of him (like Corbyn in that respect). It's just that 35% for almost 3 years is not worth it. We could well be at 1.25-3 in a year's time which is an investment return, not a gambler's one.

    If however things spike up again, I'll take another look at 1.5 or so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    JosiasJessop said:

    First.

    Trump is a reality TV show writ large. If the end comes, I reckon it'll come from a direction few, if any, are expecting.

    Alien abduction.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    Has Stormy Daniels been on the receiving end of the Russian Probe?

    (Sorry)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    OK, I'm confused. Is the Windrush fiasco the dead cat to divert attention from the debate about the Syria bombings or is the debate about the Syria bombings the dead cat to divert attention from the Windrush fiasco?

    Or are the government just generally crap?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    I do not think 1.35 is value at the moment.

    I have, generally speaking, bet on his stubbornness to remain in post - and the lack of an obvious route to getting rid of him (like Corbyn in that respect). It's just that 35% for almost 3 years is not worth it. We could well be at 1.25-3 in a year's time which is an investment return, not a gambler's one.

    If however things spike up again, I'll take another look at 1.5 or so.

    I think I have money on Trump staying in post with Ladbrokes, but their website seems to have intentionally changed (And not for the better) so you can't actually view long term bets properly there.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    I take it that I'd rather not know what the completion of "Michael Cohen's cigar bu.." is in the screenshot?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I take it that I'd rather not know what the completion of "Michael Cohen's cigar bu.." is in the screenshot?

    That would be a Cuban Probe, rather than a Russian Probe.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,194
    edited April 2018
    McVey sprinkling her special brand of fairy dust up north.

    https://twitter.com/STVColin/status/985887302164545536
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    I've been selling the earliest year in the Betfair exit market almost continually since he was elected - albeit in small size given the illiquidity of the market.

    Given the near impossibility, absent death, of him going this year, seems the value play.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Rudd speaking now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    Personal view: the recent shenanigans will not prise Trump from the White House, but they increase the chance of a serious challenger in the primaries.

    It might be worth thinking about who that might be, and betting accordingly. I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality, or from the pro-business wing, who worry about the impact of tariffs and a potential trade war.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    edited April 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Another female - Victoria Atkins maybe
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Dominic Raab?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Another female - Victoria Atkins maybe
    Gavin Williamson to Home, Penny Morduant to Defence, Rory Stewart to DfID
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Boris to Home Office. Theresa May will muse that not many survive it to go on to become PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said

    Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at all
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    Personal view: the recent shenanigans will not prise Trump from the White House, but they increase the chance of a serious challenger in the primaries.

    It might be worth thinking about who that might be, and betting accordingly. I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality, or from the pro-business wing, who worry about the impact of tariffs and a potential trade war.

    Yes and no. I agree with the conclusion but the more likely premise is that a deal is made that Trump won't be ousted in return for agreeing not to run for a second term. Either way, there will be a new name on the ballot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    edited April 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said

    Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at all
    Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,172
    My money is on Judge Kimba Wood calling BS on most of Cohen's arguments.

    I think she'll allow a fairly broad trawl through the documents - and the idea that Cohen should get to say which are or are not privileged is utterly ridiculous. But then again Cohen gives every indication of being a thug rather than an attorney.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    MarqueeMark said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said

    Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at all
    Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of does - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....
    Wow, she really asked that? That's something the Home Office should know.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    MarqueeMark said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said

    Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at all
    Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of does - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....
    It is drawing anger and mockery. Not a good look
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    David Lammy very good and I agree with everything he has said

    Betting on Rudd first out must be interesting. She is not good on this at all
    Asking other MPs to tell her of any cases of deportation they know of does - that does not look like somebody on top of their brief....
    It is drawing anger and mockery. Not a good look
    Abbott has a wide open goal and cocks up requiring intervention from the speaker. She really is a liability
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,244
    Perhaps there have been no such deportations.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Personal view: the recent shenanigans will not prise Trump from the White House, but they increase the chance of a serious challenger in the primaries.

    It might be worth thinking about who that might be, and betting accordingly. I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality, or from the pro-business wing, who worry about the impact of tariffs and a potential trade war.

    Are the Christian right unimpressed with Trump's "personal mortality" because he's unlikely emulate Noah's 950 years ?

    JackW is not 950 .... :smile:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    Rudd's chances of survival hang in the balance. A few more bad cases being publicised on the news over the next couple of days could finish her off.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/985892440245788672
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    tlg86 said:

    Rudd's chances of survival hang in the balance. A few more bad cases being publicised on the news over the next couple of days could finish her off.

    She was absent over Salisbury, in denial on police numbers over knife crime, and now this.

    She has looked drained for some time and I am not at all sure she will survive
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    edited April 2018
    Amber next out of the Cabinet cut from 33s to 16s.
    https://m.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/#!event_details?id=226271370

    Edit: thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the hint earlier.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/985892440245788672

    Only if there are no cases
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Dominic Raab?
    He is good on civil liberties so that would be a pleasing move.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    edited April 2018
    It's important for reasons of Morris Dancer's Wallet that Mordaunt replaces Rudd.

    Edited extra bit: FPT:
    F1: Red Bull are 17 on Betfair for the Constructors' title. I think that's too long.

    Current standings are:
    Mercedes 85
    Ferrari 84
    Red Bull 55

    However, Red Bull had a double DNF two races ago (Ferrari has had one DNF). And Verstappen has screwed up at least once in every race.

    Extra bit 2: I think if every car had finished, we'd have something like Ferrari 95, Red Bull 80, Mercedes 70.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    edited April 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    It's important for reasons of Morris Dancer's Wallet that Mordaunt replaces Rudd.

    She would be a good choice on her way to leader, maybe
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The government should have a list of people who've been deported, and the reasons why they were removed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    AndyJS said:

    The government should have a list of people who've been deported, and the reasons why they were removed.

    You'd have thought that was the case.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.

    Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rcs1000 said:

    ... I could see challenges from the Christian right, who are unimpressed with his personal mortality...

    They're not very keen on his reported sexual antics either.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985897153619996676
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    MarqueeMark said:

    I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.

    Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.

    Witnessing the end of her career
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.

    Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.

    Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited April 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Dominic Raab?
    Generally Theresa has tried to replace like with like when one of her Ministers has had to resign.

    So if Rudd goes I'd expect her to be replaced by another woman. And someone from the REMAIN side of Con.

    Which I think rules out Raab on both counts? ;)

    Now I've said that watch TM promote Rabb if Rudd quits. :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    AndyJS said:

    The government should have a list of people who've been deported, and the reasons why they were removed.

    If the Home Office haven’t been able to give Amber a list of deportees this morning, she’s in real trouble.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.

    Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.

    Witnessing the end of her career
    She would be gone if it had not been for Syria
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Tissue_Price said:

    twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985897153619996676

    What was that old axiom, leaders lead? :p
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet? :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,934
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Dominic Raab?
    Dominic Győr, surely?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Győr
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    edited April 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.

    Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.

    Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.
    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/985897153619996676

    Corbyn's car crash attitudes must have had an effect of increasing support for TM
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    I suppose what we don't know it's what's gone on behind the scenes. If Rudd's boss has been arguing that the government should stand firm on this issue - until today - then Rudd is probably safe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    Sandpit said:

    Amber next out of the Cabinet cut from 33s to 16s.
    https://m.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/#!event_details?id=226271370

    Edit: thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the hint earlier.

    Now backed into 6/1.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    GIN1138 said:

    Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet? :D

    About to
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    GIN1138 said:

    Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet? :D

    Still waiting....on shortly.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.

    Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.

    Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.
    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.
    Agreed
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet? :D

    About to
    #popcorn :D
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited April 2018
    MarqueeMark said:

    Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    So what your basically saying is that you wouldn't want to risk Amber driving you home after a party? ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has the Theresa V Jezza show happened yet? :D

    About to
    #popcorn :D
    Watch the labour benches behind Corbyn - could be very interesting
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/985899148699422720
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    This story has been rumbling quietly in the background for a few weeks now. A case of too little, too late?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    God knows I've taken the piss out of Lammy plenty of times on here, but he was excellent asking about Windrush: https://order-order.com/2018/04/16/rudd-attacks-home-office/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    Actual car crash TV :O
    https://twitter.com/RobertCoxwell/status/985885473489944576/video/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,983
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Amber next out of the Cabinet cut from 33s to 16s.
    https://m.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/#!event_details?id=226271370

    Edit: thanks @TheScreamingEagles for the hint earlier.

    Now backed into 6/1.
    It's a lay imho.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,614
    edited April 2018
    Forget CA / Facebook,

    China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/16/the-betting-edges-a-notch-away-from-trump-completing-his-first-term/#vanilla-comments

    ZTE, Huawei, DJI, all been found up to some dodgy stuff.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Sandpit said:

    Actual car crash TV :O
    https://twitter.com/RobertCoxwell/status/985885473489944576/video/1

    Well there certainly won't be any lack of evidence when it comes to the insurance claim... :D
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    RobD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    This story has been rumbling quietly in the background for a few weeks now. A case of too little, too late?
    Possibly, but she has had one or two other things to worry about, what with a chemical weapon being used in an English town and all that.

    As I mentioned earlier, the odd thing is that this story should have been rumbling for over a decade. I'd still like to know why it hasn't been a problem before - employers have been legally responsible for checking immigration status since 2006.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Theresa up any minute now
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    I expect much, much better than this from Ministers of my Party. Embarrassed by the way it has played out.

    Seriously unimpressed by Rudd. She can forget any plans for a leadership bid.

    Why? She seems to have responded rapidly and without messing around.
    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    When did it first become an issue?

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,983
    May and Boris now in chamber.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....
    It will be forgotten in a few weeks.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....
    It will be forgotten in a few weeks.
    Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,983
    White suit.

    Smart move.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. Gin, to be fair, I suspect the impact will be less than the financial crisis.

    But Rudd should resign. And be replaced by Mordaunt. It's the right* thing to do.

    *for my finances.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Dominic Raab?
    Looks like it could be an anagram.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....
    It will be forgotten in a few weeks.
    That's probably part of the problem :p
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....
    It will be forgotten in a few weeks.
    Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...
    Not really. Long experience has taught me not to get over-excited over transient issues in politics, and especially not over Home Office cock-ups.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Forget CA / Facebook,

    China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/16/the-betting-edges-a-notch-away-from-trump-completing-his-first-term/#vanilla-comments

    ZTE, Huawei, DJI, all been found up to some dodgy stuff.

    Wrong link?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Gin, to be fair, I suspect the impact will be less than the financial crisis.

    But Rudd should resign. And be replaced by Mordaunt. It's the right* thing to do.

    *for my finances.

    Is the trebuchet renovation fund a bit short of cash?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,983
    I wonder what level of shouty rant Jezza will deploy this afternoon. 11?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    'Foreign power with veto on our policy.'

    Corbyn in real trouble over this
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2018
    What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the government's?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....
    It will be forgotten in a few weeks.
    Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...
    Not really. Long experience has taught me not to get over-excited over transient issues in politics.
    I don't know. If it does turn out people have been kicked out of the country "in error" that is pretty bad...

    *IF*
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,895
    Mr. D, not unlike the NHS, there can never be enough money for the nation's trebuchet needs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,614
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Forget CA / Facebook,

    China's ZTE 'poses risk to UK security'

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/16/the-betting-edges-a-notch-away-from-trump-completing-his-first-term/#vanilla-comments

    ZTE, Huawei, DJI, all been found up to some dodgy stuff.

    Wrong link?
    Sorry, correct link.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-43784990
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,898
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Dominic Raab?
    Looks like it could be an anagram.
    Arab mini-cod....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,983
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/985902212571451392
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?

    Doubt it will make a difference. The opinion is moving behind TM with Corbyn being a big factor as he repulses a large part of our Nation
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    edited April 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?

    I think it is about Bercow and his desire to posture against the government more than anything else
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Anybody with an ounce of political nous would know how bad this looks. This should just never, ever have got to this point.

    She could have come to the House weeks ago, saying she had been made aware of this problem and was acting to get ahead of it before it became a problem. She would have got credit. Instead, she looks inept, politically and practically.

    It looks bad because it is bad. However, Amber Rudd has apologised profusely for the errors of her department (which date back to the 1960s, because what we are now seeing is the result of sloppy bureaucracy over decades), and she's taking firm action to deal with it.
    Excuse me if I don't give her much credit for being a dollar short and a day late....
    It will be forgotten in a few weeks.
    Straying into Rogerdarmus territory there Rich...
    Not really. Long experience has taught me not to get over-excited over transient issues in politics.
    I don't know. If it does turn out people have been kicked out of the country "in error" that is pretty bad...

    *IF*
    Agreed. Mind you, the Home Office seems to take years to do anything.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?

    Causing the thought "Bercow is a twat" to form in the minds of the three people in the country in whose minds it was not already present.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,983
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    'Foreign power with veto on our policy.'

    Corbyn in real trouble over this

    For the veto, vote Labour.

    Has a ring about it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    oxfordsimon said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?

    I think it is more about Bercow and his desire to posture against the government more than anything else
    Do we know when Parliament will be reporting on Bercow's alleged bullying of his staff?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    GIN1138 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    What is the practical effect of John Bercow choosing Alison McGovern's motion on Syria rather than the governments?

    I think it is more about Bercow and his desire to posture against the government more than anything else
    Do we know when Parliament will be reporting on Bercow's alleged bullying of his staff?
    Never?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    May appointed Rudd as Home Sec to make May look like a decent Home Sec. (Which she wasn't, but that was the plan)

    Get rid of Rudd and give Esther the gig.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Amber Rudd has to resign who would we expect to replace her?

    Dominic Raab?
    Looks like it could be an anagram.
    Man planning to slip barmaid coin? (7,4)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,252
    Shot down we are only acting at the behest of US.

    She is really nailing this
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