politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay
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There is a slight pejorative element to the word Jew, I believe.david_herdson said:
Why not drop the strict classical linguistic inheritance and go with Jewphobic?TOPPING said:
While Judophobia, more flowing imo than Judeophobia, would likely be misinterpretedCyclefree said:
Or even anti-Jew racism which is what I note OGH uses.Ishmael_Z said:
There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP0 -
Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.
It is possible we've passed "Peak Corbyn" and he'll never get back to where he was in Summer 2017 but it's equally possible Theresa (or any other Con leader) might see another collapse in favour of him in any subsequent election campaign.
Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will be taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.
I don't think Con can risk it.0 -
I remain happy with my 28-1 on Emily Thornberry,now 5-1 fav in next Lab leader market as a long-term hold.TSE's tip of Diane Abbott is 100-1 remains good value.0 -
The wider points, I think, are firstly that Brexit has no upside. Everything is about avoiding or mitigating the many downsides, as far as you can or are willing to do. I would say car manufacturers, for example, are facing broadly similar issues. They may well decide it's easier in the long run to keep their manufacturing in the EU, despite the dislocation costs.Richard_Nabavi said:
That was an interesting blog, and it's certainly true that for the business model of that company as it is currently organised, Brexit is a disaster. Having said that, there can't be many small companies so dependent on relatively low-value direct sales to the EU, so you can't extrapolate from this particular case to a wider conclusion on the impact of Brexit on 'business'. (Of course that's no consolation to this particular company).FF43 said:The other point she makes about the effect of leaving the EU on her business, apart from the direct costs of the additional red tape, is that there is no substitute for the European Union as a market. On its own the United Kingdom is too small a market; other developed countries (Australia etc) too fragmented; developing countries (China etc) too unreliable and difficult to deal with. Whereas the European Union market is coherent and easy to deal with.
However, Sean Fear is right that the business owners seem to be throwing the towel prematurely. They've already had nearly two years to think about how they might adapt, and seem to have done no thinking at all. No matter - they still have a full three years to plan for how they might adapt, the obvious answer being to sell through distributors or dealers rather than directly. Of course that means giving up a large chunk of gross margin, but against that they'd save a bunch on admin costs and transport. There's no sign in that blog that they're doing any planning or investigation of options like that.
Secondly, dealing with adversity is normal in business. You look for ways to keep the flag flying. Brexit is yet another anti-business policy. You deal with it. Unfortunately for the staff and the locality the obvious way of dealing with it for this particular firm is to move with the market and shift operations to stay in the EU.0 -
https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/984003184011218944FrancisUrquhart said:Five-hundred patients showed symptoms of chemical attack in Syria's Eastern Ghouta - World Health Organization
More Fake news....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/9840031301856501770 -
....Blame on both sides....CarlottaVance said:
twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/984003184011218944FrancisUrquhart said:Five-hundred patients showed symptoms of chemical attack in Syria's Eastern Ghouta - World Health Organization
More Fake news....
twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/9840031301856501770 -
Amusing, and many in both camps will hate this:
https://twitter.com/JamesDMorris/status/983999090932551680
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/9840030483380224020 -
You could only really do it in safe seats as an independent. In marginal areas you’d need to get a Jewish candidate from the closest rival party to stand.TGOHF said:
Hmm - wouldn't it simply split the opposition and let the Maomentum candidate have an easier ride ?Sandpit said:
I wonder if Jewish groups are going to stand candidates for election against some of the worst offenders - either on their own in safe seats, or with other parties in more marginal areas?FrancisUrquhart said:
Apparently all this antisemitism stuff is just dirty tricks...the cult just won't accept that there is a problem.rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP0 -
that looks suspiciously like a prediction?GIN1138 said:Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.
...
Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.
I don't think Con can risk it.0 -
Accepting that is itself embedding antisemitism.TOPPING said:
There is a slight pejorative element to the word Jew, I believe.david_herdson said:
Why not drop the strict classical linguistic inheritance and go with Jewphobic?TOPPING said:
While Judophobia, more flowing imo than Judeophobia, would likely be misinterpretedCyclefree said:
Or even anti-Jew racism which is what I note OGH uses.Ishmael_Z said:
There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP0 -
Being able to define what you are talking about with more rather than less accuracy is usually helpful. In this instance, calling Labour "racist" gives them the option of saying yebbut look how unracist we are about {list of every race except Jewish}.Sandpit said:
What’s wrong with just calling it racism?Ishmael_Z said:
There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP0 -
LOL! Well kind of but not really.david_herdson said:
that looks suspiciously like a prediction?GIN1138 said:Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.
...
Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.
I don't think Con can risk it.
I'm not saying Theresa WILL experience another another collapse like she did in Election 2017 if she goes up against Jezza at the next election... But given what happened last Summer it looks bloody risky doesn't it?
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Loach went on to claim that anti-Semitism among Labour voters had decreased since Corbyn became leader, “dropping from 22% to 14%”. And he told Labour members to watch the controversial Al-Jazeera series “The Lobby“, which exploited the Holocaust and defended Jackie Walker as a victim of an Israeli government backed conspiracy. Loach said:rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP
“It explains the role of the Israeli government in infiltrating and undermining the Labour left.”
https://order-order.com/2018/04/11/ken-loach-deselect-30-mps-attended-anti-semitism-protest/
It was the Jews / Israelis again....they really are very busy aren't they. Is there nothing they aren't responsible / involved in?0 -
Maybe. But it doesn't alter its usage as it currently stands.david_herdson said:
Accepting that is itself embedding antisemitism.TOPPING said:
There is a slight pejorative element to the word Jew, I believe.david_herdson said:
Why not drop the strict classical linguistic inheritance and go with Jewphobic?TOPPING said:
While Judophobia, more flowing imo than Judeophobia, would likely be misinterpretedCyclefree said:
Or even anti-Jew racism which is what I note OGH uses.Ishmael_Z said:
There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP0 -
David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
That's approaching tempting I think.
Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...0 -
I was at a fancy pants super-posho do last night and the vitriol displayed towards JRM was surprising (or perhaps not).rkrkrk said:David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
That's approaching tempting I think.
Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...0 -
So, over to the 30 he believes should be thrown out. What are they going to do?FrancisUrquhart said:
Loach went on to claim that anti-Semitism among Labour voters had decreased since Corbyn became leader, “dropping from 22% to 14%”. And he told Labour members to watch the controversial Al-Jazeera series “The Lobby“, which exploited the Holocaust and defended Jackie Walker as a victim of an Israeli government backed conspiracy. Loach said:rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP
“It explains the role of the Israeli government in infiltrating and undermining the Labour left.”
https://order-order.com/2018/04/11/ken-loach-deselect-30-mps-attended-anti-semitism-protest/
It was the Jews / Israelis again....they really are very busy aren't they. Is there nothing they aren't responsible / involved in?
Labour, 2018. It is beyond belief that only ten years ago this was the party of Blair and Brown.0 -
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David, on e) - in 2015 the leaflets were quality in both content and printing. In 2017, they were shoddy in both respects. There is nothing worse than pushing something akin to tissue paper through letterboxes....david_herdson said:
I'm only part way through Tim Shipman's "Fall Out" but it's clear that there were people shouting those things but that May was being hermetically sealed from them by Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill - who sealed May from anything they didn't agree with.MarqueeMark said:
The last election demonstrated that supposedly uber-smart political movers and shakers surrounding Mrs. May actually had the political acumen of the slugs in my garden.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we were 25% ahead at the last election then she soiled the bed.Pulpstar said:
"Now's not the time"
"Too close to an election"
"Not before brexit"
"We can't depose the lady who delivered Brexit"
"We have a lead over Labour, we can't risk upsetting the apple cart now"
"We're behind Labour, she's got us into this mess she'll get us out".
"We're too far behind, we can't change leader now"
"Brexit is going wrong, noone wants to take over now its a poisoned chalice"
"We're 5-10 points ahead, why rock the boat"
Where were the people in the Tory campaign standing up and shouting at the top of their lungs "You want to do the fuck WHAT?????" That incredulity should have covered:
a) holding the election at all
b) holding the election separate from the locals
c) the content of the manifesto
d) the debates
e) the election materials
f) a whole load of stuff I've probably forgotten but spiked my blood pressure forty points at the time.
On your points:
a) the election was the right call - a small majority left too many hostages to fortune and 2016-7 presented the best opportunity a PM could hope for.
b) I don't think this much mattered either way. The Tory campaign was brought down by the manifesto; if anything, the local elections (which were outstanding for the Tories) boosted morale. Had she not screwed everything up shortly after, the reality of the poll leads at the time would have caused serious worries and possibly infighting in other parties.
c) Yes - the manifesto was barely disclosed to anyone. Idiots. Why hire the best political consultants in the world and then not use them?
d) Agreed. You can't be strong and stable and then hide from scrutiny.
e) Not sure what you mean there, but i suspect it's largely duplicating other points?
f) Again, down to the excessive control in the centre meaning that (1) information wasn't properly disclosed and discussed among the Tory team (indeed, there wasn't much 'team'), and (2) there was no 'grid' to try to control the media agenda, leaving the door open to Labour.0 -
The Corbyn leadership is built upon the 3 pillars of an ethical foreign policy based on human rights,an end to austerity,which is a political choice and not an economic necessity,and the democratisation of politics.These pillars remain strong and Mr Corbyn has already shown guile and resilience in resisting the Chicken Coup of his neo-liberal militarists of his own side.
Whether you call it a love-bubble or a ring of steel that protects him,the bullets just bounce off this Jedi master.0 -
I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail0
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On the other hand, it’s clear that a lot of people within Labour don’t see antisemitism as a problem that needs addressing. By calling it out as racism, just as if it were against blacks or Asians, it might lead to a better understanding of the problem.Ishmael_Z said:
Being able to define what you are talking about with more rather than less accuracy is usually helpful. In this instance, calling Labour "racist" gives them the option of saying yebbut look how unracist we are about {list of every race except Jewish}.Sandpit said:
What’s wrong with just calling it racism?Ishmael_Z said:
There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP
Oh, and add Ken Loach to the list of people to need to be expelled from the Party, such comments need to be jumped on hard if the antisemitism problem is to be addressed.0 -
Another London stabbing...9am at Stratford International station in East London, next to Westfield shopping centre.0
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Why are antisemites the only racists without a phobia?0
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It's based on an ostrich foreign policy, selective rights for pressure groups, an end to the economy and the destruction of dissenters.volcanopete said:The Corbyn leadership is built upon the 3 pillars of an ethical foreign policy based on human rights,an end to austerity,which is a political choice and not an economic necessity,and the democratisation of politics.
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There are a lot of these "just about surviving" companies around. I used to part own one. You get through the storm by squeezing costs to the bone but you never know whether the next one will carry you away. There's a thought that these aren't useful companies anyway. If you don't have the scale and the profitability you deserve to swept in a Darwinian purge of the unfittest. But I don't think it works that way. The startup world is like this. You and I cannot actually set up another Google. The system picks the winners before anyone makes an investment and you and I are not in that system. What we can do is to create a company that we can hope to be a nice lifestyle earner. Apart from those that crash and burn there's a wide range of lifestyles that can be supported. The company in the blog is a manufacturing one in a sector where the UK is seen to be behind. If we want to see new manufacturing in the UK we need to encourage rather than decimate startups. Brexit is just bad.Ishmael_Z said:
The numbers for the business look all wrong; turnover of £800k is a very small business, and 10 employees plus 2 working owners (if I understand correctly) is a lot to be making a living off that turnover. If the concept is as well proven as it seems to be they should have expanded to the stage where they can afford to automate their systems, I would have thought. They also have time to reinvent themselves as sellers to the UK market only, in the expectation brexit will bugger up their competitors' UK sales as much as their EU ones.Richard_Nabavi said:That was an interesting blog, and it's certainly true that for the business model of that company as it is currently organised, Brexit is a disaster. Having said that, there can't be many small companies so dependent on relatively low-value direct sales to the EU, so you can't extrapolate from this particular case to a wider conclusion on the impact of Brexit on 'business'. (Of course that's no consolation to this particular company).
However, Sean Fear is right that the business owners seem to be throwing the towel prematurely. They've already had nearly two years to think about how they might adapt, and seem to have done no thinking at all. No matter - they still have a full three years to plan for how they might adapt, the obvious answer being to sell through distributors or dealers rather than directly. Of course that means giving up a large chunk of gross margin, but against that they'd save a bunch on admin costs and transport. There's no sign in that blog that they're doing any planning or investigation of options like that.0 -
Give him time. He's doing his absolute best on the matter. It's too early to say if he's failed or not.JonnyJimmy said:I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail
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Loach has only just joined after years fighting for another party iirc.Sandpit said:
On the other hand, it’s clear that a lot of people within Labour don’t see antisemitism as a problem that needs addressing. By calling it out as racism, just as if it were against blacks or Asians, it might lead to a better understanding of the problem.Ishmael_Z said:
Being able to define what you are talking about with more rather than less accuracy is usually helpful. In this instance, calling Labour "racist" gives them the option of saying yebbut look how unracist we are about {list of every race except Jewish}.Sandpit said:
What’s wrong with just calling it racism?Ishmael_Z said:
There's too many antis in "against anti-Semitism", you have to think it through to see which side he is on. Memo to British Council of Jews, if you read this: promote "judeophobia" as a word. "protest against judeophobia" has 10x the impact of "protest against anti-semitism".rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP
Oh, and add Ken Loach to the list of people to need to be expelled from the Party, such comments need to be jumped on hard if the antisemitism problem is to be addressed.0 -
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
True, he's more like a P G Wodehouse without the writing ability.JonnyJimmy said:I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail
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It's a full time job, secretly running the world from a cabal. But hey, someone's gotta do it.FrancisUrquhart said:
Loach went on to claim that anti-Semitism among Labour voters had decreased since Corbyn became leader, “dropping from 22% to 14%”. And he told Labour members to watch the controversial Al-Jazeera series “The Lobby“, which exploited the Holocaust and defended Jackie Walker as a victim of an Israeli government backed conspiracy. Loach said:rottenborough said:Ken Loach calls for MPs who protest against anti-semitism to be thrown out:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5602429/Ken-Loach-demands-Labour-MPs-demonstrated-against-anti-Semitism-kicked-party.html#ixzz5CLhw2dbP
“It explains the role of the Israeli government in infiltrating and undermining the Labour left.”
https://order-order.com/2018/04/11/ken-loach-deselect-30-mps-attended-anti-semitism-protest/
It was the Jews / Israelis again....they really are very busy aren't they. Is there nothing they aren't responsible / involved in?0 -
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Well yes, he doesn't like armies and uniforms nor dislike the gay, black and disabled enough for a perfect match. But looking like Jeremy Corbyn is almost as bad, in its own way.JonnyJimmy said:I think efforts to make Corbyn look like a Nazi are doomed to fail
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I thought when I saw the images that Gates was Jean Claude Juncker.logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/983987147546951680
I assumed either I was seeing things or the poll had been taken exclusively among members of the European Commission. Because there is no other way on God's green earth that Juncker could have topped any poll whatsoever.0 -
David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.Stark_Dawning said:
David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
59/1 seems value. It depends on Theresa May leaving sooner rather than later, I think. MPs would be looking for someone who will implement Brexit but is somewhat sane. Theresa May Mark II, basically.rkrkrk said:David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
That's approaching tempting I think.
Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...
The next Tory leader/PM market is a mystery to me, anyway.0 -
He did say he didn't want it.FF43 said:
59/1 seems value. It depends on Theresa May leaving sooner rather than later, I think. MPs would be looking for someone who will implement Brexit but is somewhat sane. Theresa May Mark II, basically.rkrkrk said:David Davis has gone out to 59/1 for next Tory leader on betfair.
That's approaching tempting I think.
Meanwhile JRM is still at 5.7/5.8...
The next Tory leader/PM market is a mystery to me, anyway.0 -
Asia: English Football, Man United etc etcStark_Dawning said:
David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
The Queen is the most admired Brit. They have put the men and women is separate lists.ydoethur said:
Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.Stark_Dawning said:
David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
I don't know: do they think the Jews stole it from them?JonnyJimmy said:Why are antisemites the only racists without a phobia?
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Is Pietersen still a Brit? Thought I read he’d gone back to being a Saffir?GarethoftheVale2 said:
The Queen is the most admired Brit. They have put the men and women is separate lists.ydoethur said:
Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.Stark_Dawning said:
David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
Labour's average poll rating over the last month has slipped below 40%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20180 -
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Yet most Englishmen remember him best for a petulant sending-off in the World Cup against the Argies.rottenborough said:
Asia: English Football, Man United etc etcStark_Dawning said:
David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/983987147546951680
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zWsEuczNj480 -
Beaten by Obama, Xi, Putin and Pope Francis, the Queen, Oprah and Hillaryrottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
Ah okay. Some of my faith in humanity has been restored.GarethoftheVale2 said:
The Queen is the most admired Brit. They have put the men and women is separate lists.ydoethur said:
Certainly it doesn't say much for the rest of us! Could have been worse though, could have been Kevin Pietersen.Stark_Dawning said:
David Beckham is the world's most admired Brit? Why? How?logical_song said:
And Putin beats the Dalai Lamarottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/9839871475469516800 -
Yet it was not a Theresa collapse, she still got 42% after all, so much as Corbyn uniting the left-wing and protest vote behind himGIN1138 said:
LOL! Well kind of but not really.david_herdson said:
that looks suspiciously like a prediction?GIN1138 said:Given what happened to Theresa's favourability lead from 20th April to 11th June I don't think anybody can predict what is going to happen in future.
...
Looking at Mike's graph the one thing we can say is the Tories will taking a HUGE risk if they dare go into another general election with Theresa leading them.
I don't think Con can risk it.
I'm not saying Theresa WILL experience another another collapse like she did in Election 2017 if she goes up against Jezza at the next election... But given what happened last Summer it looks bloody risky doesn't it?0 -
Jess Philips....not taking any prisoners.......
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/9840200516773273610 -
The Tories seem to have sured up their GE2017 voters to my mind. If they can get 13,636,684 voters out again or thereabouts it may well lead to a majority.AndyJS said:Labour's average poll rating over the last month has slipped below 40%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20180 -
I think she's suggesting such matters are Beyond our Ken?CarlottaVance said:Jess Philips....not taking any prisoners.......
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/9840200516773273610 -
Very funny tweet from her about people called Ken also. What is it with Kens and the left??CarlottaVance said:Jess Philips....not taking any prisoners.......
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/9840200516773273610 -
I wonder if Mr Corbyn will object......
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6000162/sas-isis-syria-matt-tonroe-special-forces-death/0 -
Indeed, the Tories need a swing of just 0.22% from Labour next time for an overall majorityPulpstar said:
The Tories seem to have sured up their GE2017 voters to my mind. If they can get 13,636,684 voters out again or thereabouts it may well lead to a majority.AndyJS said:Labour's average poll rating over the last month has slipped below 40%:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative0 -
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520
Grabs popcorn.
Trident will keep us safe though won't it
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The Yougov research on most admired people has a filter where you can look at the results by country. The 10 most admired men and women in the UK are:
David Attenborough 16.60% Queen Elizabeth II 19.60%
Barack Obama 12.30% Michelle Obama 10.30%
Stephen Hawking 9.20% Judi Dench 7.10%
Prince Harry 5.30% J K Rowling 6.40%
Jeremy Corbyn 4.90% Malala Yousafzai 5.70%
Bill Gates 4.60% Joanna Lumley 5.50%
Prince William 4.20% Angela Merkel 3.60%
Dalai Lama 4.10% Oprah Winfrey 3.30%
Prince Philip 3.10% Kate Middleton 3.20%
Jacob Rees Mogg 3.00% Nicola Sturgeon 2.50%
Theresa May is 11th most admired woman. Trump is actually 2nd most admired man in the US but obviously not loved much elsewhere.
There was some talk about Bojo the other day. He is less admired than both Trump and Farage in the UK.0 -
Russia was the only country in the world where Trump was more admired than Obama, not for long it seemsCarlottaVance said:Here we go......
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/04/11/worlds-most-admired-2018/0 -
My tip for Ed Balls as next Labour leader might not be a bad one then.AlastairMeeks said:Amusing, and many in both camps will hate this:
https://twitter.com/JamesDMorris/status/983999090932551680
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/9840030483380224020 -
Lots of us Labour loyalists like aspects of both.AlastairMeeks said:Amusing, and many in both camps will hate this:
https://twitter.com/JamesDMorris/status/983999090932551680
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/9840030483380224020 -
Gas Killing Animal? Just wondering - what sort of animal can "kill gas"? Does it cool it into a liquid?CarlottaVance said:Here we go......
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/9840226254407475200 -
That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.rottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/983987147546951680
But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.0 -
This is the closest the USA and Russia have come to attacking each other since the Cuban Missile Crisis.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520
Grabs popcorn.
Trident will keep us safe though won't it ?
0 -
I think what theMarqueeMark said:
Gas Killing Animal? Just wondering - what sort of animal can "kill gas"? Does it cool it into a liquid?CarlottaVance said:Here we go......
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984022625440747520stupid old foolesteemed President and Leader of the Free World was trying to say was that Assad is an animal who kills using gas.
It may however have just been a brainfart and he was really talking about a theory that some new species has evolved out there.0 -
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.0 -
I think the broader point is that Timothy/Hill felt the stratospheric poll leads that May had up until May 2017 vindicated their style and behaviour.david_herdson said:
I'm only part way through Tim Shipman's "Fall Out" but it's clear that there were people shouting those things but that May was being hermetically sealed from them by Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill - who sealed May from anything they didn't agree with.MarqueeMark said:
The last election demonstrated that supposedly uber-smart political movers and shakers surrounding Mrs. May actually had the political acumen of the slugs in my garden.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Because we were 25% ahead at the last election then she soiled the bed.Pulpstar said:
"Now's not the time"
"Too close to an election"
"Not before brexit"
"We can't depose the lady who delivered Brexit"
"We have a lead over Labour, we can't risk upsetting the apple cart now"
"We're behind Labour, she's got us into this mess she'll get us out".
"We're too far behind, we can't change leader now"
"Brexit is going wrong, noone wants to take over now its a poisoned chalice"
"We're 5-10 points ahead, why rock the boat"
Where were the people in the Tory campaign standing up and shouting at the top of their lungs "You want to do the fuck WHAT?????" That incredulity should have covered:
a) holding the election at all
b) holding the election separate from the locals
c) the content of the manifesto
d) the debates
e) the election materials
f) a whole load of stuff I've probably forgotten but spiked my blood pressure forty points at the time.
On your points:
a) the election was the right call - a small majority left too many hostages to fortune and 2016-7 presented the best opportunity a PM could hope for.
b) I don't think this much mattered either way. The Tory campaign was brought down by the manifesto; if anything, the local elections (which were outstanding for the Tories) boosted morale. Had she not screwed everything up shortly after, the reality of the poll leads at the time would have caused serious worries and possibly infighting in other parties.
c) Yes - the manifesto was barely disclosed to anyone. Idiots. Why hire the best political consultants in the world and then not use them?
d) Agreed. You can't be strong and stable and then hide from scrutiny.
e) Not sure what you mean there, but i suspect it's largely duplicating other points?
f) Again, down to the excessive control in the centre meaning that (1) information wasn't properly disclosed and discussed among the Tory team (indeed, there wasn't much 'team'), and (2) there was no 'grid' to try to control the media agenda, leaving the door open to Labour.
Once they’d fallen victim to the inevitable hubris, it was too late.0 -
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.
0 -
10% in 72 hours, that’s around the same as the pound dropped after the Brexit vote,CarlottaVance said:
Gas demand also down as Europe warms up for the summer, could be a serious crunch time for Putin and Russia - and a great illustration of why Northern Europe needs to get fracking yesterday.0 -
The Queen, the Obamas, the Pope, the Dalai Lama, the Gates, Angelina Jolie, Oprah, Madonna are the clear A-listers I think. The Queen and Jolie are appearing together in a nature film, apparently. I would have expected the Pope to rank higher.Casino_Royale said:
That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.rottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/983987147546951680
But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.0 -
Far right , Stalin far left .What is your point ?geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.0 -
This kind of labelling is always unhelpful and often misleading.Yorkcity said:
Far right , Stalin far left .What is your point ?geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.
0 -
I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?0
-
Mr Sandpit,
At the local rugby club, they ran out of LPG for a week and a half. Cold showers for the players. Wouldn't have happened if we'd started fracking. Greenies never burn so well.
0 -
Hitler was far right. The reason for the 'Socialist' part of the name is that the party's founder, Anton Drexler, was far left.geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.
However, it is also worth remembering that Mussolini did start on the left, although he moved right as a result of the Socialist opposition to Italian involvement in the First World War.0 -
Hardly misleading between 1933 and 45.geoffw said:
This kind of labelling is always unhelpful and often misleading.Yorkcity said:
Far right , Stalin far left .What is your point ?geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.0 -
Post on the PPRUNE aviation forum:
https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/607655-heavy-casualties-reported-algerian-il78-crash.html
" Il-76 payload = 17,500Kg. 300 pax + bags = 30,000kgs.
Plane crashed just after take-off.
Oops."0 -
Russian Billionaires turning into Russian Millionaires. The great Tragedy of Our Times.....Sandpit said:
10% in 72 hours, that’s around the same as the pound dropped after the Brexit vote,CarlottaVance said:
Gas demand also down as Europe warms up for the summer, could be a serious crunch time for Putin and Russia - and a great illustration of why Northern Europe needs to get fracking yesterday.0 -
It was reported (or claimed) that in the recent Israeli strike on Syria, five of the eight missiles fired were shot down by the presumably Russian-supplied Syrian defences. I couldn't say whether that is good, bad or indifferent (or even true).CarlottaVance said:Here we go......
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/9840226254407475200 -
Just as well I haven't ordered my holiday Forex yetSandpit said:
10% in 72 hours, that’s around the same as the pound dropped after the Brexit vote,CarlottaVance said:
Gas demand also down as Europe warms up for the summer, could be a serious crunch time for Putin and Russia - and a great illustration of why Northern Europe needs to get fracking yesterday. 0 -
This is a betting site. The best you'll get are odds.CopperSulphate said:I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
0 -
Does anyone else think these increasingly bizarre tweets are beginning to resemble Chapman's extraordinary nervous breakdown?CarlottaVance said:
While the soft pedalling would be welcomed in isolation, it just looks like unhinged flailing in the context.
Could we see a sudden shortening of odds on Mike Pence becoming Acting President?0 -
Putin is quite popular in Russia obviously, parts of southern Europe and I expect Iran etc and is also the type of strongman Africans likeCasino_Royale said:
That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.rottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/983987147546951680
But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.0 -
Obviously far-right. They did little to alter the existing class or economic structures but were obsessed by notions of nationality, power, strength, racial purity and so on.geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.
The fact that totalitarian states of far-left or far-right share some common features shouldn't obscure the fact that they don't share all features in common.0 -
Trump's "baws oot" approach is working with North Korea so far - who's to say this wont work in Syria ?0
-
Horseshoes. Are capitalists fascists?ydoethur said:
Hitler was far right. The reason for the 'Socialist' part of the name is that the party's founder, Anton Drexler, was far left.geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.
However, it is also worth remembering that Mussolini did start on the left, although he moved right as a result of the Socialist opposition to Italian involvement in the First World War.
0 -
FF43 said:
The Queen, the Obamas, the Pope, the Dalai Lama, the Gates, Angelina Jolie, Oprah, Madonna are the clear A-listers I think. The Queen and Jolie are appearing together in a nature film, apparently. I would have expected the Pope to rank higher.Casino_Royale said:
That seems ridiculously high to me for Obama.rottenborough said:Trump aint gonna like this:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/983987147546951680
But, perhaps we shouldn’t take any list too seriously that places Putin above the Dalai Lama.
The Dalai Lama as the 1st places religious leader followed by the Pope is not that surprising especially given the scandals the Catholic Church has had0 -
I am willing to bet up to £50 million that World War III will not break out in two weeks.DavidL said:
This is a betting site. The best you'll get are odds.CopperSulphate said:I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
If anyone wishes to take me up they will have to show they have £50 million to lose first.0 -
Yes. Happy to reassure you.CopperSulphate said:I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
0 -
That's Pascal's wager if ever I saw it.david_herdson said:
Yes. Happy to reassure you.CopperSulphate said:I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
0 -
Right wing and capitalist aren't synonymous. For example, capitalism is very let wing compared to feudalism.geoffw said:
Horseshoes. Are capitalists fascists?ydoethur said:
Hitler was far right. The reason for the 'Socialist' part of the name is that the party's founder, Anton Drexler, was far left.geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.
However, it is also worth remembering that Mussolini did start on the left, although he moved right as a result of the Socialist opposition to Italian involvement in the First World War.0 -
Totalitarian theorists like Hannah Arendt had the left and right extremes of politics almost meeting in a circular shape.geoffw said:
Do you think Nazis are far right or far left?NickPalmer said:
In the context of the Holocaust, it's reasonable to focus on Nazis. But to avoid it being only an oh-how-awful-it-must-have-been piece of history like the Irish potato famine, it should be put into context of the way that prejudice and nationalism can spiral out of control into massacres and genocide - and yes, that can apply to far right, far left and some in between as well. The Armenian genocide wasn't an especially right- or left-wing thing, it was just xenophobia gone mad.Cyclefree said:
The other issue may be that it is taught as something that is only done by nasty right-wing fascists and nazis. Thus the roots of left-wing anti-semitism: the Jew as banker, capitalist blood sucker and oppressor (similar of course to the complaints of the nazis) may not be obvious. This may explain why so many left-wingers seem both oblivious to the anti-semitic tropes they are spreading and their long history and roots within a certain strand of left-wing thought. They seem to think that anti-semitism is something which only right-wingers can be guilty of.
On History GCSEs: shocking.
So if one is of a particular religious or racial group, if doesn't really differ much if one is being persecuted by Adolf Hitler or Josef Stalin. One is still being persecuted.0 -
A good point was made earlier that given this crisis the Prime Minister should be able to have a frank conversation with the leader of the opposition to agree action but that is simply impossible with Corbyn
He is pro Russia, Iran and Hamas and anti the US, the West, NATO, Israel and Saudia all of whom are involved in possible military action.
Do we really think Corbyn is the answer0 -
Trump is actually making a shift which could appeal to swing voters, a majority of Americans supported the last strike on Assad after he killed civiliansydoethur said:
Does anyone else think these increasingly bizarre tweets are beginning to resemble Chapman's extraordinary nervous breakdown?CarlottaVance said:
While the soft pedalling would be welcomed in isolation, it just looks like unhinged flailing in the context.
Could we see a sudden shortening of odds on Mike Pence becoming Acting President?0 -
Do you? I mean, I know teachers have a pretty generous pension scheme but that is a lot of money.ydoethur said:
I am willing to bet up to £50 million that World War III will not break out in two weeks.DavidL said:
This is a betting site. The best you'll get are odds.CopperSulphate said:I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
If anyone wishes to take me up they will have to show they have £50 million to lose first.0 -
No ground troops of any scale will be going in.I can assure you of that.CopperSulphate said:I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
0 -
Yeah, it won't happen. It's in no-one's interests.CopperSulphate said:I've not been on here for a while, but can anyone reassure me that WW3 isn't going to start in Syria and we're not going to be nuked in the next week or so?
The US does not want to conquer Russia, and Russia does not want to conquer the US. The overall cause of this current situation is Russia wanting to exercise influence and control over the 'independent' states that surround it in rather an uncivilised manner.
I have a smidgen of sympathy with the Russian position given their history, but only a smidgen. And they might do better by trying honest means rather than their current ones. Yet that's all Putin knows.
Putin also has a certain amount of butthurt over 'losing' the Cold War, and wants Russia to be seen as a world power rather than the backwards pariah state he's turning it into. But again, poisoning people abroad is not necessarily the best way to be seen as a power.
A nuclear war would do nothing to further the cause of either side.0
