politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the first time since GE2017 Corbyn has slipped behind TMay in the leader ratings – can he recover?
The chart shows the trend in TMay’s net favourability lead over Corbyn since she called the election jut over a year ago. The figures are calculated by taking the PM’s net rating and subtracting Mr. Corbyn’s net figure.
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For now he’s making a bang up job of effing up all on his own.
CON maj nailed on?
The Tory brand will never recover from the damage done by Brexit.
She'll deliver a Goldilocks Brexit, the unrealistic hopes and fears over it will not be realised - and these ratings should move markedly in her favour again as the nation gives a sigh of relief and gets on with stuff.
JCWNBPM.
So being a soft southerner is genetic:
'During the Iron Age or Roman Period, the DNA of people in the south-east diverged somewhat from that of populations in the rest of the Britain.'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-43712587
Other than that moan a very interesting chart. The swing from 29th May (+9) to 11th June (-32) is particularly marked and I cannot recall such volatility in these type of scores before. Message number one: if you are expecting the British people to elect you their PM you really had better go and speak to them.
Events are conspiring to aid Mrs May at the moment. Will that continue?
Having said that, no party has a right to exist as a force, which the liberals learnt in the early decades of the last century. But that applies to Labour as much as the Conservatives.
I'm not convinced that the local elections will go well for Labour, and that will give his internal opponents a chance for another round of bashing, but his personal popularity in the party and the absence of credible opponents will seem him through. There are still a lot more people who positively like him than TM, though she's getting more respect now from her critics. In the longer term to 2022, sheer Government weariness and a hangover as the results of a Goldilocks Brexit filter through will erode the Tory ratings. Anyone who predicts the outcome with any confidence is brave.
Wish the weather would be nice for just a day or two. Got to wander into town at some point and it'd be better if it weren't either raining or looking like it might at any second.
On-topic: he probably will. The Cult will never desert him, and once we're onto other matters (especially leaving the EU, where May has to deliver a reality and Corbyn can be a blank canvas for anyone to paint their preferred picture upon) it'll be better for him.
Goldilocks was very tired by this time, so she went upstairs to the bedroom. She lay down in the first bed, but it was too hard. Then she lay in the second bed, but it was too soft. Then she lay down in the third bed and it was just right.
http://www.dltk-teach.com/rhymes/goldilocks_story.htm
Your description might prove more accurate.
Wasn't quite clear whether she is going to get these problems when we leave the EU or after the transition period?
Author Christopher Booker characterises this as the "dialectical three", where "the first is wrong in one way, the second in another or opposite way, and only the third, in the middle, is just right." Booker continues "This idea that the way forward lies in finding an exact middle path between opposites is of extraordinary importance in storytelling".
It is also incredibly personal to me, given that I have a small business in the antiques industry. We're talking about small business, right?
On the points in the article, it assumes that we won't replicate the frictionless trade in goods that we currently have with the EU.
It doesn't account for currency fluctuations caused by leaving the EU that might help a small export business.
And, As I obviously have to spell this out, it doesn't appreciate that at the drop of a hat the EU can pass laws that could kill of their business with little democratic repercussion, and, since QMV, no veto representation from nation state governments.
As with what would be expected from a blog that has 'the48' in the title, it accentuates the negatives at all turns.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/10/tony-blairs-son-has-links-to-possible-new-british-centrist-party
Worth keeping an eye on the Shanghai weather forecast. Rain is slightly more probable than not (60%ish). If that rises, Williams or Sauber could easily 'win' FP1 as the only chaps to participate. Tiny stakes only, but I've backed them each way (fifth the odds for top 3). Stroll/Ericsson are 501, or 651 with boost, with Leclerc and Sirotkin 751, or 1001 with boost. Worth it, for very small stakes, I think.
[Ericsson was third in third practice in Oz. Not sure what the odds were, but it would've been long].
*Like Amazon.
Its possible, of course, that the nature of the financial crash was such that we are just having a pretty shitty cycle (trying to offset serious deflationary pressures) and things will take their normal course. But in my view none of the cyclical warning bells are ringing at all. Things can still go wrong, a trade war between China and the US being the most obvious current example, but I think we might stagger along like this for a considerable time.
It appears that Russia is far more worried than it demonstrates and has no wish to cross swords with Israel.
These are seriously dangerous times
Disturbing fact of the day: if you borrow $1,000 to buy a new iPhone, it adds more to UK GDP than to the US, China and Taiwan combined.
I'm sure a couple of economists will opine on the importance of near-zero interest rates for a decade in keeping recession at bay.
And give us the obligatory three opinions.....
However, you are absolutely right that in year nine you probably should be poking your ahead into surplus land, and by year 10, it should be a good 1-2% of GDP.
We should aim to have government debt-to-GDP stable at 55-60% through the cycle. So, at the end of the end of a period of economic expansion, it should probably be 50%, and at the depths of the subsequent recession, perhaps 65%.
Sadly, there are few votes in genuine prudence.
Personal bankruptcy rose but not wildly and repossessions were modest. Banks were strongly encouraged to keep lending despite Basle II and III. So we have kept borrowing and consuming. We have been able to do this because interest rates have not recovered but borrowing is ultimately bringing forward future consumption to today and when that future comes we may find demand hard to maintain.
1. The savings rate is depressed, which typically happens only late in the economic cycle.
2. There is near to full employment, which typically happens only late in the economic cycle.
3. There is a large current account deficit, which, oh scratch that, is a permanent feature of the British economy post about 2000.
There are plenty of crazy investments going on: in London housing and in venture capital. What there is not is any sign of wage pressures, which may be the result of EU immigration, or globalisation, or the fact we're not running near capacity.
I'm cautious. But maybe I worry too much.
Admittedly in the time of the Pitts and Grenvilles party labels were very loose - both described themselves as Whigs although they led Tory ministries - and the Chamberlains all started as Liberals.
The Cecil family they can have!
Interesting.
And with that, it's time for bed.
That's your reason.
I note Mercedes admit they got outsmarted by Ferrari again:
https://www.racefans.net/2018/04/10/mercedes-admit-they-were-too-slow-to-respond-to-vettel-threat/
They really need to employ a decent race strategist... I'm open to offers.
Sadly, governments see more votes in spending money than they do in paying down debt, hence debt is now 87% of GDP.
That was what happened in 1992 when Major lost just 0.3% of the 1987 Tory voteshare as the voters were unwilling to give Kinnock the keys to Downing Street
Tactical voting seems to have played a part - on an UNS he would have had a majority of 77 and think how different things might have been then.
But May does not have a three figure majority to play with. Indeed, she has no majority to play with.
But actually when you knock off the QE amounts which we owe ourselves - then we are basically at your range anyway.
And in any case - borrowing to invest when rates are low is prudent.
It was in four months.
Look at the graph, which is what I am talking about.
Yes, May just about clung on. She was expected to win over 400 seats including places like Bolsover and West Bromwich West. That simply didn't happen and the campaign, which drove floating voters to Corbyn, seems to have been a big problem.
Theresa May can win a majority by delivering Brexit, turning up to debates and TV programmes and by campaigning with a manifesto that has some positive aspects. It’s not rocket science.
Don't have a car loan, have an aged diesel (and an aged petrol actually as well). Does anyone with more knowledge than me have any explanation as to why these are a potential problem?
Mr. B, actually, I think Mercedes had the smarter strategy generally but they really should've told Bottas to go hell for leather. Vettel would not have lasted another lap (very impressive drive from him).
Her biggest mistake, the dementia tax, has also been scrapped
My prediction, FWIW, is that the next financial scandals will be in the wealth management sector: lots of growth, clients from dodgy countries or with interesting backgrounds, tick the box due diligence, possibly misaligned incentives, especially to increase net new money and leverage, client advisors too close to their clients, a poor or complacent culture and a push to sell complex products.
Plus the political background is changing. See Russia, for instance.
It has a whiff to me of what it was like in other financial sectors before they went splat.
You heard it here first.......
She also lost Kensington and Canterbury - even Balfour held Canterbury although (buffs nails) one rather brilliant poster here suggested it might be vulnerable to Labour given its profile.
That is not the sign of a successful strategy.
Canterbury was lost because of tuition fees levels and interest rates compared to Corbyn's promise to scrap them which was more Osborne's fault than May's, the Tories won Mansfield and Copeland because of Brexit but lost Kensington because of Brexit
There is a bleak assessment of Tories in this week's Spectator. The article is mainly about London, where changing demographics and attitudes mean the party is close to full panic over prospects this spring.
But it also discusses wider issues e.g. ageing membership, reluctance to canvas in the way that young Corbynites do, split between urban views and the Shire Tories represented by May.
With business comes risk - but 'authorities can be idiots about stuff' is very frustrating. I've been liaising with various MPs and MEPs, as have our various trade associations.
Some fools on the INTA/IMCO ctte want to make the threshold for cultural goods for import purposes 100 years! They don't have a clue how such goods circulate, and have circulated, freely, for centuries.
That VAT on digital goods nonsense is barmy; bureaucracies never properly understand the cost of bureaucracy on business.
Funnily enough I think she’d be better at TV debates rather than audience Q&As or interviews, where she tends to give stock answers.
She isn’t actually that bad at the cut & thrust of PMQs. Probably because she can largely anticipate what’s coming.
When I bought my (marvellous) nearly new Jag I was given £1000 off the price to take out a £10,000 loan from Jaguar. In 6 months, during which it will accrue just under £500 of interest, I can pay off the full loan without penalty. It may have incentivised me to buy my car but it is the economics of the mad house.
I think May could have won 340-350 seats with a good campaign on 43-44% of the vote. I don't believe, in hindsight of course, her chances were much higher than that.
There are a number of seats in the midlands and north she should have been able to win, and a few others, like Portsmouth South, Stockton South and High Peak, that she shouldn't have really lost.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/04/10/brexit-and-british-exceptionalism-the-impossible-challenge-for-remainers/#comment-36040
Families are left terrified as brawl breaks out in stands at the Man City-Liverpool match when a Reds fan among the home fans celebrates his team scoring
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5601081/Liverpool-fans-attacked-Etihad-celebrating-goal-sat-Manchester-City-end.html
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/983959778903937024