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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why we should look closely at the precise wording of second re

VERSION ONE:Once the negotiations between Britain and the European Union over a Brexit deal have been completed, do you think there should or should not be a public vote on whether Britain accepts the deal or remains in the EU after all?
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Doesn't this just show the UK electorate's (probably increasing) distaste for actually voting?
And in more interesting news, that bit of paint over on the north wall is drying.
Edit - bugger, didn't even get bronze.
https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/983287241157079040
The whole report is worth a read. My main takeaway on the Irish Border question is that people still cling to the myth that the UK will have an independent trade policy pre or post Brexit. If it's not going to happen, it's not worth trading off for.
The problem with Brexit polling generally, and indeed with the referendum itself, is that there is no evaluation of costs for each option. If you ask the question, "Would you prefer you and your family potentially to lose their jobs, or would you prefer a soft Irish border", you would probably get a different answer. It would be seen as a leading question of course.
The Public: How?
Remainers: .....er, a vote...
The Public:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3PKE8uTSp8
However, given the first referendum result was to leave, any second referendum can only be between different sorts of leave ie on the terms agreed in negotiations or on WTO terms.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nestle-kitkat/nestle-to-launch-ruby-chocolate-kitkat-in-europe-and-americas-idUSKBN1HH0YO?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5acc8fd704d30135440589a3&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
What does an independent trade policy look like?
What does a soft Irish border look like?
How can I evaluate the variables?
At least I could decide the Leave/Remain issue on emotions.
https://www.theredroar.com/2018/03/swp-links-and-foul-mouthed-twitter-tirades-derail-frontrunners-bid-for-top-labour-target-seat-of-pudsey/
If it's just Deal/No Deal, obviously they'd recommend the Deal.
What would a tertiary referendum be about? Best of three?
But it's all hypothetical: there won't be a second referendum.
The interesting question politically is not what would happen if one is granted; it's what will the fallout be when one isn't.
Not unless that number shifted to a great degree, and the overall figure was strongly pro-final say. And we're running out of time for that very rapidly.
Of course this is a classic PB anecdote and I don't doubt that many others could tell stories of fervent leavers who have now changed their mind. What I think is fairly clear is that there has been very little change in the overall position as found in both the referendum and the election where 43% voted for a party completely committed to delivering Brexit (even if they were seriously unclear as to how) and 41% to a party at least notionally committed to respecting the vote, even if many of the members were unhappy about it. 7% voted for a party wanting a second referendum. Its just not going to happen.
Remainers really need to accept this and focus on achieving as soft a Brexit as possible with continued regulatory alignment, a customs union that looks suspiciously like the Customs Union, priority for EU citizens in immigration, a FTA which looks very like Single Market membership, the UK opting in to various EU bodies and paying subscriptions for their maintenance etc. It seems to me that that is what May is offering but the devil will be in the detail and remainers should be engaged to tweak that deal rather than sitting on the sidelines in the huff. I don't think that there is any chance of us rejoining the EU in the next 20 years but if they get this sort of deal it really wouldn't be that difficult (apart from joining the Euro).
But then, MRDA doesn't it?
The public will of course get the final say at the next general election anyway when they can vote Labour, LD, UKIP etc if they oppose the final deal the government has agreed with the EU. What is clear from this poll is there is no appetite for a second EU referendum
Given that it'd be foolish to hold a referendum with no time to sort out the fallout should the people give the 'wrong' result, we're probably pretty close to the deadline for when a bill could reasonably be introduced to allow time for all the stages.
Leave aside that were such legislation going through, it'd make negotiations with the EU much harder.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
There isn't any other real reason to leave the EU, but as far as it goes it's a good one. "Suck it up losers" isn't policy, nor is it helpful in determining what actually replaces EU membership. Given Brexit will definitely damage the UK, damage limitation would seem to be the way to go.
I can’t see a second referendum unless the deal is appalingly one-sided in the EU’s favour, and the government either don’t think they can sell it or defeat an amendment forcing a plebiscite on the Noel Edmonds question.
Though it may well not be WTO terms either given May's commitment to a Canada style FTA with the EU
http://jackofkent.com/2018/04/what-is-the-scope-of-the-brexit-mandate-and-when-will-it-be-discharged/
The Times reports this morning that this kind of briefing is urgently needed. Of course the paper doesn’t quite put it like that but this is the inescapable conclusion to be drawn from Davis’s own remarks at a conference in London yesterday. According to our gallant bulldog, the question of Brexit and the Irish border is being complicated by the Irish government. You see:
“We had a change of government, south of the border, and with quite a strong influence from Sinn Féin, and that had an impact in terms of the approach”
This, an audience member pointed out helpfully, was not actually true. There has been no change of government, merely a change of Taoiseach. Undeterred by mere facts, Davis blustered on:
“Well you had a change of leader or a change in taoiseach. They’ve [Sinn Féin] been playing a strong political role which they haven’t done historically, that I hadn’t foreseen”
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/04/how-dare-david-davis-blame-sinn-fein-for-the-irish-border-mess/
If he can talk such arrant nonsense we can ignore the rest of his piece.
The Irish border issue is only an issue for the Irish govt - wish they would hurry up and decide if they will build their border or not. The Uk isn’t interested in building one whatever they decide.
There will be two intra-transitional deal manifestos outlining what Out will look like under Cons or Lab.
It will be very messy and likely irrelevant what Lab’s vision is if Jeremy still leads the party.
I believe the Away Goals rule applies both after 90 minutes and after extra time is that correct?
EG if after 90 minutes City win 4-1 (4-4 on aggregate) then Liverpool progress, there is no extra time.
If after 90 minutes City win 3-0 then it goes to extra time. If both teams score 1 each in extra time (4-4 AET on aggregate) then Liverpool progress.
Penalties only if tie still 3-3 on aggregate after extra time.
So essentially if Liverpool score at all tonight then there won't be penalties, and if they score in 90 minutes there won't be extra time. Is that correct?
LV is dithering - DD right to call him out.
It's been an object lesson in salami-slicing epic backsliding.
I have £2 on 5-1 and also on 6-1.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/07/why-the-plural-of-referendum-must-be-referendums/
There is a massive contradiction here, which is why Brexit isn't sensible at all.
The EU need to show there is no better deal than full membership. The UK need to achieve a meaningful repatriation of powers. In that there is a lot of wiggle room.
It still isn't sensible however.
Get the legislation going now, help deliver a crap deal from the EU then it’s much easier to sting Leave in the 2nd ref.
Also May is never going to agree to a second referendum. If she lost, she would have to resign like Cameron did. Parliament cannot force the executive to hold a referendum.
My view remains that there will be a deal "fudged brexit", which will go to parliament. While some of the hardcore brexiteers and remainers will moan, the deal will be comfortably approved and life will go on.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/983662868540346371
No chance.