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SystemSystem Posts: 12,680
edited April 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The demographics of Brexit – how things are projected to change

New research from @robfordmancs and @smthgsmthg: due to changes in the demographic make-up of the UK, all else being equal there will be a 52-48 majority for Remain by 2021 https://t.co/qmVb33TeoO pic.twitter.com/EUahMHuFKt

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    edited April 2018
    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    Primus inter pares
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    This will also help Bregret.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

    If I didn't know better, I'd say Farage was a Remain/Rejoin sleeper.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,242
    By 2021 the transition period will have ended, free movement will have been replaced by work permits and we will have left not only the EU but the single market and most likely the customs union too.

    Remainers then have the challenge of trying to reverse all of that, or at the very least get the UK back into the single market and customs union and if they are only projected to be on 52% that will be a big ask in the short term, especially as it will require them to support unfettered free movement
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,532
    I'd recommend The God That Failed by Sean Trende, to anyone who thinks that demographic change will bring them victory.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Primus inter pares

    More evidence of cheating!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    You couldn't make it up could you
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Practically the definition of complacency: "oh, I don't have to convince anyone. I just have to wait for people I disagree with to die".
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This will also help Bregret.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

    If I didn't know better, I'd say Farage was a Remain/Rejoin sleeper.

    He was awfully quick to concede on the referendum night wasn't he?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Practically the definition of complacency: "oh, I don't have to convince anyone. I just have to wait for people I disagree with to die".

    or die in the waiting
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Norway went the opposite direction on EU membership - from around even for/against to about 1:5 against.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    The other factor not dealt with in the chart is the mass naturalisation over the next few years of the 3 million or so EU citizens here, wanting to cement their status.

    I expect that by 2027 at least one major party will be running to rejoin, particularly as it is increasingly looking like BINO. We will want a say in writing the rules once more.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    All else being equal .......


    oh well forget that then
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
    Demographic changes will not overturn Brexit alone.

    If Brexit is a success we'll remain out of the EU, but if it turns into a disaster then we'll end up with a very close relationship with the EU which might include rejoining.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    Very interesting

    https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/982005748350595072
  • Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    "all else being equal" ?
    All else won't be equal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    rpjs said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This will also help Bregret.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

    If I didn't know better, I'd say Farage was a Remain/Rejoin sleeper.

    He was awfully quick to concede on the referendum night wasn't he?
    I'll be forever grateful for the early concession.

    It pushed the Leave price out to 15/1 ish
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Fat_Steve said:

    "all else being equal" ?
    All else won't be equal.

    Exactly

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This will also help Bregret.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

    If I didn't know better, I'd say Farage was a Remain/Rejoin sleeper.

    He spent as much time fighting Vote Leave during the EU referendum as he did making the case to Leave. If he’d pulled in the same direction, and acted with a bit of decorum, Leave would have won by a bigger margin.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
    Demographic changes will not overturn Brexit alone.

    If Brexit is a success we'll remain out of the EU, but if it turns into a disaster then we'll end up with a very close relationship with the EU which might include rejoining.
    Chances are it will be neither. The masses will shrug their shoulders and ask the politicians to stop talking about Brexit/EU matters for a very long time. I doubt any party looking to open up that policy area after Brexit will do well based on that policy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,242
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    The other factor not dealt with in the chart is the mass naturalisation over the next few years of the 3 million or so EU citizens here, wanting to cement their status.

    I expect that by 2027 at least one major party will be running to rejoin, particularly as it is increasingly looking like BINO. We will want a say in writing the rules once more.
    2027 will be 7 years after the transition period ended in 2020, meaning 7 years of no free movement ie exactly matching the 7 years of transition controls on free movement from the new accession nations from 2004 to 2011.

    If immigration is brought under control by then a Labour PM may then feel at least able to take the UK back into the single market and customs union even if not the full EU
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Agree on the points about not relying on demographic change.

    But three years isn’t very long.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
    Demographic changes will not overturn Brexit alone.

    If Brexit is a success we'll remain out of the EU, but if it turns into a disaster then we'll end up with a very close relationship with the EU which might include rejoining.
    Brexit will neither be universally recognised as a success or as a failure, because both teams will have very mobile goalposts.

    It will remain a focus of intergenerational division, which will manifest politically in other ways. It will make some parts of the country no go areas for Tories, long after the initial issue is history, rather like the Poll Tax was for a couple of decades in Scotland.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Danny565 said:

    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?

    Does anyone take even the slightest bit of notice of midterm polls anymore?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    The other factor not dealt with in the chart is the mass naturalisation over the next few years of the 3 million or so EU citizens here, wanting to cement their status.

    I expect that by 2027 at least one major party will be running to rejoin, particularly as it is increasingly looking like BINO. We will want a say in writing the rules once more.
    2027 will be 7 years after the transition period ended in 2020, meaning 7 years of no free movement ie exactly matching the 7 years of transition controls on free movement from the new accession nations from 2004 to 2011.

    If immigration is brought under control by then a Labour PM may then feel at least able to take the UK back into the single market and customs union even if not the full EU
    I suspect that the final deal will have a preferential work visa scheme for EU citizens that will differ little from FOM in practice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
    Britain must accept higher levels of immigration from India if it hopes to sign a free trade agreement after Brexit, a senior Indian diplomat has warned, as he predicted it could take up to a decade to secure the deal.

    YK Sinha, India’s High Commissioner to the UK, said "freer movement of people and professionals" had to form part of any future deal to ensure it was “mutually beneficial.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/23/britain-must-accept-immigrants-wants-free-trade-deal-warns-senior/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    The biggest opportunity/risk for overturning Brexit is if we have a major recession that coincides with Brexit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
    Britain must accept higher levels of immigration from India if it hopes to sign a free trade agreement after Brexit, a senior Indian diplomat has warned, as he predicted it could take up to a decade to secure the deal.

    YK Sinha, India’s High Commissioner to the UK, said "freer movement of people and professionals" had to form part of any future deal to ensure it was “mutually beneficial.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/23/britain-must-accept-immigrants-wants-free-trade-deal-warns-senior/
    I suspect that the EU27 will make it a condition too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
    Britain must accept higher levels of immigration from India if it hopes to sign a free trade agreement after Brexit, a senior Indian diplomat has warned, as he predicted it could take up to a decade to secure the deal.

    YK Sinha, India’s High Commissioner to the UK, said "freer movement of people and professionals" had to form part of any future deal to ensure it was “mutually beneficial.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/23/britain-must-accept-immigrants-wants-free-trade-deal-warns-senior/
    I meant on third party agreements. I highly doubt we'll sign a free trade deal with India at any time in the next 10 years, Brexit or rejoin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    Danny565 said:

    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?

    I'm hoping so.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    Danny565 said:

    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?

    Isn’t it a bit late now? Usually we get it by 10.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
    There was a Turkish trade representative that gave evidence to a Commons committee on this, where she explained some countries (Mexico IIRC and another one) simply refused to accept Turkish goods on the same conditions as EU ones although Turkey had to accept those countries' goods per the EU FTA). There is quite a lot of literature on Indian preferential trade agreements, eg with Japan, where they focus on GATS mode 4, "Presence of natural persons" in their PTAs. UK objections to this was one reason for the EU India FTA not proceeding. The UK and India compete on services. We are not going to open our market without getting something useful in return. The win for Japan was India's car market and their services industry is relatively underdeveloped.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    Speaking of polls....
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/981884627655774208
    Wonder if it’s related to opposition to his reforms.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Danny565 said:

    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?

    Isn’t it a bit late now? Usually we get it by 10.
    Sometimes they publish it The Times after midnight.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,755
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
    Britain must accept higher levels of immigration from India if it hopes to sign a free trade agreement after Brexit, a senior Indian diplomat has warned, as he predicted it could take up to a decade to secure the deal.

    YK Sinha, India’s High Commissioner to the UK, said "freer movement of people and professionals" had to form part of any future deal to ensure it was “mutually beneficial.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/23/britain-must-accept-immigrants-wants-free-trade-deal-warns-senior/
    I meant on third party agreements. I highly doubt we'll sign a free trade deal with India at any time in the next 10 years, Brexit or rejoin.
    Ah ok.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
    Demographic changes will not overturn Brexit alone.

    If Brexit is a success we'll remain out of the EU, but if it turns into a disaster then we'll end up with a very close relationship with the EU which might include rejoining.
    I agree with you.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    If 52% of the public opposed Brexit by 2021, would Leavers still support its imposition?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    Exactly what I said on the last thread.

    If the Remain camp are replying on demographics to get us back into the EU they are going to be sorely disappointed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    Exactly what I said on the last thread.

    If the Remain camp are replying on demographics to get us back into the EU they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Demographics are just a bonus. It’s the complete political bankruptcy and irrelevance of Brexit that doom it to the dustbin of history.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Fair to say George Osborne’s tweet congratulating himself on introducing a sugar tax over on Twitter isn’t exactly attracting universal praise in the comments.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,171
    Anazina said:

    If 52% of the public opposed Brexit by 2021, would Leavers still support its imposition?

    I think if that had been the case at the referendum I have little doubt we would have remained and the subject would be pretty well off the agenda today.

    However by 2021 the agenda will have moved on and a re-join movement will be needed to campaign to re-join
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,171
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Speaking of polls....
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/981884627655774208
    Wonder if it’s related to opposition to his reforms.

    You would think so
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Casino_Royale said:

    Fair to say George Osborne’s tweet congratulating himself on introducing a sugar tax over on Twitter isn’t exactly attracting universal praise in the comments.

    The sugar tax is a very wise move. If we tax booze and nicotine we should certainly tax sugar. I would legalise cannabis and tax the arse off that too.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited April 2018
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    1. We will stay in the Single Market but it will be called something like "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement" to make it sound more Leavey.


    The requirement to end free movement precludes the first [staying in the Single Market] though a Canada style FTA is likely
    I think we are unlikely to get to a Canadian FTA. It will take too long. The EU will insist on regulatory convergence - if we are doing that we might just as well get the benefits of the Single Market. Northern Ireland can't be solved otherwise. We will lose most car manufacturing. The issue, as you say, is freedom of movement. So something will be sorted out. It will be token.

    The telling thing. Some time ago ministers were saying, we must have a trade deal, we can't negotiate anything else until we do. Now they refuse to discuss the trade deal AT ALL. The reason, they know it's negative. Farmers, the Irish, Remainers, car manufacturers, banks will all be up in arms. They have to keep the status quo.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anazina said:

    If 52% of the public opposed Brexit by 2021, would Leavers still support its imposition?

    I think if that had been the case at the referendum I have little doubt we would have remained and the subject would be pretty well off the agenda today.

    However by 2021 the agenda will have moved on and a re-join movement will be needed to campaign to re-join
    Good to know but you haven’t answered the question I asked.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Rejoice

    http://www.cityam.com/283448/slowly-but-surely-brexit-starting-shape-up

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,389
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

    7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.
    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
    There was a Turkish trade representative that gave evidence to a Commons committee on this, where she explained some countries (Mexico IIRC and another one) simply refused to accept Turkish goods on the same conditions as EU ones although Turkey had to accept those countries' goods per the EU FTA). There is quite a lot of literature on Indian preferential trade agreements, eg with Japan, where they focus on GATS mode 4, "Presence of natural persons" in their PTAs. UK objections to this was one reason for the EU India FTA not proceeding. The UK and India compete on services. We are not going to open our market without getting something useful in return. The win for Japan was India's car market and their services industry is relatively underdeveloped.
    But Turkey is not a member of the EU Customs Union. It has *a* Customs Union with the EU. However, the Turke-EU Customs Unions is not recognised by the WTO, because it does not also cover agricultural products.

    If we were to remain a member of *the* EU Customs Union, we would be outsourcing our entire trading relationships with the rest of the world.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,171
    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anazina said:

    If 52% of the public opposed Brexit by 2021, would Leavers still support its imposition?

    I think if that had been the case at the referendum I have little doubt we would have remained and the subject would be pretty well off the agenda today.

    However by 2021 the agenda will have moved on and a re-join movement will be needed to campaign to re-join
    Good to know but you haven’t answered the question I asked.
    I tried my best
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    edited April 2018
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Danny565 said:

    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?

    Isn’t it a bit late now? Usually we get it by 10.
    There are these to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/981840117815037953?s=19

    I have enjoyed 2 of the 4 (possibly visited Lytham St Annes too, but only in vague memory). I have visited Milford on Sea a number of times for the walk out to Corfe Castle, but also had a delightful holiday at Arisaig, in Western Scotland, with glorious sunshine and views over to the isles.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Very interesting

    https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedNews/status/982005748350595072

    Only if it wasn't obvious ages ago what this guy's role was.

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    Quite TSE. Usual one dimensional rubbish that assumes that people don't change their opinions over time. Of course they do. Generally people become more small 'c' conservative and right wing with age. Not that these numpty academics can see that!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    Anazina said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Fair to say George Osborne’s tweet congratulating himself on introducing a sugar tax over on Twitter isn’t exactly attracting universal praise in the comments.

    The sugar tax is a very wise move. If we tax booze and nicotine we should certainly tax sugar. I would legalise cannabis and tax the arse off that too.
    I think the tax needs to be broader than fizzy drinks, and should apply to confectionary, cakes and buscuits too.

    Sugar is just too cheap. Any unpalatable foodstuff can be made saleable by the addition of one of Sugar, fat or salt, or a combination of these. Just look at any of the junk in our diet.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    FF43 said:

    There was a Turkish trade representative that gave evidence to a Commons committee on this, where she explained some countries (Mexico IIRC and another one) simply refused to accept Turkish goods on the same conditions as EU ones although Turkey had to accept those countries' goods per the EU FTA). There is quite a lot of literature on Indian preferential trade agreements, eg with Japan, where they focus on GATS mode 4, "Presence of natural persons" in their PTAs. UK objections to this was one reason for the EU India FTA not proceeding. The UK and India compete on services. We are not going to open our market without getting something useful in return. The win for Japan was India's car market and their services industry is relatively underdeveloped.

    The situation for the UK in transition is not the same as Turkey is currently in. Turkey has a customs union with the EU, it is not in "the" customs union. It is also the reason why Turkey is able to sin independent trade deals outside of the partnership it has with the EU.

    During he transition period we will still be in the customs union and in the single market. There is no danger of third countries declining our goods or services covered by existing EU trade deals. In fact the EU realised this and in order to ensure minimal disruption to post transition trade they have decided not to take any action against the UK when it begins negotiations with third countries either for a continuation or expansion of existing EU trade deals.

    As I said in the previous thread, your hopes and dreams may be that the UK stays in the EU or close enough to rejoin, but both sides (the UK and EU) have realised that this is not on the table.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,242
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    The other factor not dealt with in the chart is the mass naturalisation over the next few years of the 3 million or so EU citizens here, wanting to cement their status.

    I expect that by 2027 at least one major party will be running to rejoin, particularly as it is increasingly looking like BINO. We will want a say in writing the rules once more.
    2027 will be 7 years after the transition period ended in 2020, meaning 7 years of no free movement ie exactly matching the 7 years of transition controls on free movement from the new accession nations from 2004 to 2011.

    If immigration is brought under control by then a Labour PM may then feel at least able to take the UK back into the single market and customs union even if not the full EU
    I suspect that the final deal will have a preferential work visa scheme for EU citizens that will differ little from FOM in practice.
    Freedom of movement means precisely that, at least even a preferential work visa scheme would mean we would only allow in longer stayers if they had a specific skill we neded
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anazina said:

    If 52% of the public opposed Brexit by 2021, would Leavers still support its imposition?

    I think if that had been the case at the referendum I have little doubt we would have remained and the subject would be pretty well off the agenda today.

    However by 2021 the agenda will have moved on and a re-join movement will be needed to campaign to re-join
    Good to know but you haven’t answered the question I asked.
    I tried my best
    Yes and thank you for that. I merely wondered whether Leavers would still support leaving if 53% opposed such a solution on 31 Dec 2020. As you were the only one who even so much as tried to answer, I take my hat off to you.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    williamglenn said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    Exactly what I said on the last thread.

    If the Remain camp are replying on demographics to get us back into the EU they are going to be sorely disappointed.
    Demographics are just a bonus. It’s the complete political bankruptcy and irrelevance of Brexit that doom it to the dustbin of history.
    That sounds awfully similar to the Clinton campaign in 2016, "demographics are just a bonus". We all know how that ended.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    Foxy said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Danny565 said:

    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?

    Isn’t it a bit late now? Usually we get it by 10.
    There are these to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/981840117815037953?s=19

    I have enjoyed 2 of the 4 (possibly visited Lytham St Annes too, but only in vague memory). I have visited Milford on Sea a number of times for the walk out to Corfe Castle, but also had a delightful holiday at Arisaig, in Western Scotland, with glorious sunshine and views over to the isles.
    You are more well travelled than me on this one!
    I haven’t been to the seaside in years. Last time I went it was in Brighton.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    More questions for the UK government over Skripal:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/three-most-important-aspects-skripal-case-and-where-they-might-be-pointing

    When you're in a hole stop digging!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,242
    FF43 said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    My predictions for Brexit:

    1. We will stay in the Single Market but it will be called something like "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement" to make it sound more Leavey.


    The requirement to end free movement precludes the first [staying in the Single Market] though a Canada style FTA is likely
    I think we are unlikely to get to a Canadian FTA. It will take too long. The EU will insist on regulatory convergence - if we are doing that we might just as well get the benefits of the Single Market. Northern Ireland can't be solved otherwise. We will lose most car manufacturing. The issue, as you say, is freedom of movement. So something will be sorted out. It will be token.

    The telling thing. Some time ago ministers were saying, we must have a trade deal, we can't negotiate anything else until we do. Now they refuse to discuss the trade deal AT ALL. The reason, they know it's negative. Farmers, the Irish, Remainers, car manufacturers, banks will all be up in arms. They have to keep the status quo.
    The majority of Leavers voted Leave in large part to end free movement and Leave won a small majority because of that, that is non negotiable and by definition prevents staying in the single market
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Fat_Steve said:

    "all else being equal" ?
    All else won't be equal.

    All else is already not equal.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    The other factor not dealt with in the chart is the mass naturalisation over the next few years of the 3 million or so EU citizens here, wanting to cement their status.

    I expect that by 2027 at least one major party will be running to rejoin, particularly as it is increasingly looking like BINO. We will want a say in writing the rules once more.
    2027 will be 7 years after the transition period ended in 2020, meaning 7 years of no free movement ie exactly matching the 7 years of transition controls on free movement from the new accession nations from 2004 to 2011.

    If immigration is brought under control by then a Labour PM may then feel at least able to take the UK back into the single market and customs union even if not the full EU
    I suspect that the final deal will have a preferential work visa scheme for EU citizens that will differ little from FOM in practice.
    Freedom of movement means precisely that, at least even a preferential work visa scheme would mean we would only allow in longer stayers if they had a specific skill we neded
    As EU migrants have very high employment rates, around 80%, it is not likely to be much different in practice.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,947
    Too bad we'll never get to test this in a second referendum. :D
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    I have to say the bitterness levels from our die hard remainers seems to be higher than normal tonight. It pleases me to see them so destroyed by the fact we're leaving their pet project.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited April 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:



    If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.

    Partly correct. In a customs union we would be bound to accept third country goods on the same terms as the EU. The third country doesn't have to accept our goods on the same terms as they accept EU goods, although we can ask them to do and ask the EU to push for it on our behalf. This is exactly the situation we are in with the transition. FTAs can cover services. For example any India will insist any FTA will allow them to ship cheap IT personnel into the UK to provide IT services.
    Please provide evidence for this assertion. You make these big claims and then back it up with nothing.
    There was a Turkish trade representative that gave evidence to a Commons committee on this, where she explained some countries (Mexico IIRC and another one) simply refused to accept Turkish goods on the same conditions as EU ones although Turkey had to accept those countries' goods per the EU FTA). There is quite a lot of literature on Indian preferential trade agreements, eg with Japan, where they focus on GATS mode 4, "Presence of natural persons" in their PTAs. UK objections to this was one reason for the EU India FTA not proceeding. The UK and India compete on services. We are not going to open our market without getting something useful in return. The win for Japan was India's car market and their services industry is relatively underdeveloped.
    But Turkey is not a member of the EU Customs Union. It has *a* Customs Union with the EU. However, the Turke-EU Customs Unions is not recognised by the WTO, because it does not also cover agricultural products.

    If we were to remain a member of *the* EU Customs Union, we would be outsourcing our entire trading relationships with the rest of the world.
    Any customs union we have with the EU will be A customs union. The THE/A dichotomy confuses more than it informs (some people deliberately so). Customs unions have to cover "substantially all trade". The Turkish/EU CU doesn't include agriculture (to protect EU farmers, not Turkish ones, to be clear) on a grandfathered opt out. I expect the UK/EU Customs Union to include agriculture because that's an important aspect of the Irish border issue. Also being in the customs union is necessary to keep certain farmers in business - particularly hill farmers. Farmers are a powerful lobby.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,291
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anazina said:

    If 52% of the public opposed Brexit by 2021, would Leavers still support its imposition?

    I think if that had been the case at the referendum I have little doubt we would have remained and the subject would be pretty well off the agenda today.

    However by 2021 the agenda will have moved on and a re-join movement will be needed to campaign to re-join
    I could imagine one day in the future a Conservative Prime Minister leading the campaign to re-join the European Union.

    That is, if the Conservative Party is as pragmatic and non-ideological as its adherents claim and is prepared to always act in the national interest.

    I'm not saying it WILL happen and it may never happen but just as those who voted REMAIN are always being told by some to respect the result so those who voted LEAVE may one day have to face the possibility they might have been wrong.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    hunchman said:

    More questions for the UK government over Skripal:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/three-most-important-aspects-skripal-case-and-where-they-might-be-pointing

    When you're in a hole stop digging!

    How about you tell everyone what the author's hunch is, and then stand back and listen to the laughter. It's total crap.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Fair to say George Osborne’s tweet congratulating himself on introducing a sugar tax over on Twitter isn’t exactly attracting universal praise in the comments.

    The sugar tax is a very wise move. If we tax booze and nicotine we should certainly tax sugar. I would legalise cannabis and tax the arse off that too.
    I think the tax needs to be broader than fizzy drinks, and should apply to confectionary, cakes and buscuits too.

    Sugar is just too cheap. Any unpalatable foodstuff can be made saleable by the addition of one of Sugar, fat or salt, or a combination of these. Just look at any of the junk in our diet.
    Fat - at least natural fats - gets a bad press though. Fat doesn’t make you fat, sugar makes you fat. Fat doesn’t kill you, sugar kills you. If we ate more butter and much less sugar, we’d be a lot trimmer. Agree about sweets and cakes - tax them until the pips squeak.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,532
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
    Demographic changes will not overturn Brexit alone.

    If Brexit is a success we'll remain out of the EU, but if it turns into a disaster then we'll end up with a very close relationship with the EU which might include rejoining.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    Among 25-34 year olds in 1997, Labour led by 22%. 20 years on, the Tories led by 3% among the same voters, aged 45-54.

    Relying on demographic change to bring you victory is a sure way to defeat.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MaxPB said:

    I have to say the bitterness levels from our die hard remainers seems to be higher than normal tonight. It pleases me to see them so destroyed by the fact we're leaving their pet project.

    Oh well, never mind :-)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hilariously bonkers nonsense.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    The other factor not dealt with in the chart is the mass naturalisation over the next few years of the 3 million or so EU citizens here, wanting to cement their status.

    I expect that by 2027 at least one major party will be running to rejoin, particularly as it is increasingly looking like BINO. We will want a say in writing the rules once more.
    Much as I would prefer us to be members I highly doubt that. Psychologically it is difficult to admit having made a mistake and in such a situation the damage would have been done. Asking to rejoin would be humiliating.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Anazina said:

    Foxy said:

    Anazina said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Fair to say George Osborne’s tweet congratulating himself on introducing a sugar tax over on Twitter isn’t exactly attracting universal praise in the comments.

    The sugar tax is a very wise move. If we tax booze and nicotine we should certainly tax sugar. I would legalise cannabis and tax the arse off that too.
    I think the tax needs to be broader than fizzy drinks, and should apply to confectionary, cakes and buscuits too.

    Sugar is just too cheap. Any unpalatable foodstuff can be made saleable by the addition of one of Sugar, fat or salt, or a combination of these. Just look at any of the junk in our diet.
    Fat - at least natural fats - gets a bad press though. Fat doesn’t make you fat, sugar makes you fat. Fat doesn’t kill you, sugar kills you. If we ate more butter and much less sugar, we’d be a lot trimmer. Agree about sweets and cakes - tax them until the pips squeak.
    Also, processed foods. I’m stunned by how few youngsters even think about cooking.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Foxy said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Danny565 said:

    Are we expecting a YouGov poll tonight?

    Isn’t it a bit late now? Usually we get it by 10.
    There are these to look forward to:

    https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/981840117815037953?s=19

    I have enjoyed 2 of the 4 (possibly visited Lytham St Annes too, but only in vague memory). I have visited Milford on Sea a number of times for the walk out to Corfe Castle, but also had a delightful holiday at Arisaig, in Western Scotland, with glorious sunshine and views over to the isles.
    You are more well travelled than me on this one!
    I haven’t been to the seaside in years. Last time I went it was in Brighton.
    Skip the rest of Milford on Sea. It is bungalow retirement hell, and the beach is not up to much. The walk to Corfe Castle with it's Solent views is worth the trip.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    FF43 said:

    Any customs union we have with the EU will be A customs union. The THE/A dichotomy confuses more than it informs (some people deliberately so). Customs unions have to cover "substantially all trade". The Turkish/EU doesn't include agriculture (to protect EU farmers, not Turkish ones, to be clear) on a grandfathered opt out. I expect the UK/EU Customs Union to include agriculture because that's an important aspect of the Irish border issue. Also being in the customs union is necessary to keep certain farmers in business - particularly hill farmers. Farmers are a powerful lobby.

    I think you're the one who is confused. Genuinely. Both the EU and WTO recognise the difference between being in a customs union relationship or being inside a customs union. During the transition period we will be inside the customs union. It will be no different to today, hence farmers and fishermen protesting that they are stuck with the CAP and CFP for two more years when Gove had apparently promised a new system from April 2019.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited April 2018
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/982013817524715526?s=21

    Despite a future theoretical majority for remain.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
    Demographic changes will not overturn Brexit alone.

    If Brexit is a success we'll remain out of the EU, but if it turns into a disaster then we'll end up with a very close relationship with the EU which might include rejoining.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    Among 25-34 year olds in 1997, Labour led by 22%. 20 years on, the Tories led by 3% among the same voters, aged 45-54.

    Relying on demographic change to bring you victory is a sure way to defeat.
    I would generally agree, but the caveat is we are talking about three years not 20.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,171
    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anazina said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Anazina said:

    If 52% of the public opposed Brexit by 2021, would Leavers still support its imposition?

    I think if that had been the case at the referendum I have little doubt we would have remained and the subject would be pretty well off the agenda today.

    However by 2021 the agenda will have moved on and a re-join movement will be needed to campaign to re-join
    Good to know but you haven’t answered the question I asked.
    I tried my best
    Yes and thank you for that. I merely wondered whether Leavers would still support leaving if 53% opposed such a solution on 31 Dec 2020. As you were the only one who even so much as tried to answer, I take my hat off to you.
    My own opinion, and I did vote remain but believe we now must leave, is that by 29th March 2019 when we leave 53% wanting to reverse all the legislation and agreements with the EU, would not be sufficient to change Brexit. Indeed at present the many who want to remain need to consider changing to a re-join movement but of course that is unlikely to be quick.

    In many ways we are still in a very uncertain period and I am content to see how the final deal pans out

    However, I utterly reject the dreadful Farage and the hard right as much as I reject the hard left
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2018
    These great well known bastions of liberal democracy supported the Russian motion at the OPCW regarding the Skripal murder attempt:

    China, Azerbaijan, Sudan, Algeria, and Iran

    Top freedom of expression loving nations, every single one.

    Each one picked two different Kremlin produced theories why the UK did it....

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Primus inter pares

    More evidence of cheating!
    Absolutely not!

    Polls indicate that only 34% of PBers (although 60% of the night shift) thinks @TheScreamingEagles cheats on the first post issue
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,171
    hunchman said:

    More questions for the UK government over Skripal:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/three-most-important-aspects-skripal-case-and-where-they-might-be-pointing

    When you're in a hole stop digging!

    You are at one with Putin and the Russian Ambassador - maybe you watch too much Russia Today which is bestowing sainthood on Corbyn, Williamson and Farage as their useful puppets
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Any customs union we have with the EU will be A customs union. The THE/A dichotomy confuses more than it informs (some people deliberately so). Customs unions have to cover "substantially all trade". The Turkish/EU doesn't include agriculture (to protect EU farmers, not Turkish ones, to be clear) on a grandfathered opt out. I expect the UK/EU Customs Union to include agriculture because that's an important aspect of the Irish border issue. Also being in the customs union is necessary to keep certain farmers in business - particularly hill farmers. Farmers are a powerful lobby.

    I think you're the one who is confused. Genuinely. Both the EU and WTO recognise the difference between being in a customs union relationship or being inside a customs union. During the transition period we will be inside the customs union. It will be no different to today, hence farmers and fishermen protesting that they are stuck with the CAP and CFP for two more years when Gove had apparently promised a new system from April 2019.
    Think about how it is that during the transition we will not automatically continue to benefit from the EU's third-party trade deals and you will understand why FF43 is not confused.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    https://twitter.com/hollium/status/981994407665831936?s=21
    https://twitter.com/hollium/status/981996349217484800?s=21
    https://twitter.com/hollium/status/981999338963562496?s=21
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    MaxPB said:

    I have to say the bitterness levels from our die hard remainers seems to be higher than normal tonight. It pleases me to see them so destroyed by the fact we're leaving their pet project.

    That's a rather ugly mindset.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    25-30% of the country will hate it (and I don’t deny that is a problem) but most of the rest will come to a view on the merits of the final settlement, once it’s agreed.

    I’m not sure the polling will be informative, other than a public opinion temperature check on the state of play of the negotiations, until 2021.
    Demographic changes will not overturn Brexit alone.

    If Brexit is a success we'll remain out of the EU, but if it turns into a disaster then we'll end up with a very close relationship with the EU which might include rejoining.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting we could have a Remain majority by the time we Leave.

    But I've heard the same demographic arguments about why the Tories will never win a general election for the last 20 years.

    Among 25-34 year olds in 1997, Labour led by 22%. 20 years on, the Tories led by 3% among the same voters, aged 45-54.

    Relying on demographic change to bring you victory is a sure way to defeat.
    Do you expect the current generation of 25-34 year olds to have the same progression to home ownership, and safe employment as the generation of '97?

    If not, then why will their political views shift the same way?

    It is not universal or inevitable for youngsters to become more conservative as they age, indeed in the French elections the trend can be the other way.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Liverpool should be chucked out of the Champion's League after this. A total disgrace.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-5583597/Why-did-police-expose-Guardiolas-Man-City-players-baying-red-mob.html
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This will also help Bregret.

    https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/981947079315476481

    If I didn't know better, I'd say Farage was a Remain/Rejoin sleeper.

    He spent as much time fighting Vote Leave during the EU referendum as he did making the case to Leave. If he’d pulled in the same direction, and acted with a bit of decorum, Leave would have won by a bigger margin.
    Farage is just a right wing Corbyn. His alignment with Trump and Putin really shows his moral bankruptcy.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited April 2018
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Any customs union we have with the EU will be A customs union. The THE/A dichotomy confuses more than it informs (some people deliberately so). Customs unions have to cover "substantially all trade". The Turkish/EU doesn't include agriculture (to protect EU farmers, not Turkish ones, to be clear) on a grandfathered opt out. I expect the UK/EU Customs Union to include agriculture because that's an important aspect of the Irish border issue. Also being in the customs union is necessary to keep certain farmers in business - particularly hill farmers. Farmers are a powerful lobby.

    I think you're the one who is confused. Genuinely. Both the EU and WTO recognise the difference between being in a customs union relationship or being inside a customs union. During the transition period we will be inside the customs union. It will be no different to today, hence farmers and fishermen protesting that they are stuck with the CAP and CFP for two more years when Gove had apparently promised a new system from April 2019.
    No. They are just Regional Trade Agreements of particular types with precise definitions that are notified to the WTO. EU agreements in force or under development are listed here: http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicSearchByMemberResult.aspx?MemberCode=918&lang=1&redirect=1

    The two customs union agreements are the EU-Turkey one and the EC Treaty, which is a mixed agreement, combining both a Customs Union and an Economic Integration Agreement. At some point the EU and the UK will notify the WTO of their agreement which will be a Free Trade Agreement, a Customs Union or an Economic Integration Agreement, or a combination.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    hunchman said:

    More questions for the UK government over Skripal:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/three-most-important-aspects-skripal-case-and-where-they-might-be-pointing

    When you're in a hole stop digging!

    You are at one with Putin and the Russian Ambassador - maybe you watch too much Russia Today which is bestowing sainthood on Corbyn, Williamson and Farage as their useful puppets
    More playing the man and not the ball. @Steve_Garner and you have not answered any of the three points above. Lets see your arguments and substance, rather than resorting to cheap smears.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    Dirty sleazy Tories, and Labour, on the slide:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/982020165855571968?s=19
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,171
    MikeSmithson said:

    Liverpool should be chucked out of the Champion's League after this. A total disgrace.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-5583597/Why-did-police-expose-Guardiolas-Man-City-players-baying-red-mob.html

    There should be arrests - not surprised the City players were upset - just unacceptable behaviour
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    hunchman said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    hunchman said:

    More questions for the UK government over Skripal:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/three-most-important-aspects-skripal-case-and-where-they-might-be-pointing

    When you're in a hole stop digging!

    You are at one with Putin and the Russian Ambassador - maybe you watch too much Russia Today which is bestowing sainthood on Corbyn, Williamson and Farage as their useful puppets
    More playing the man and not the ball. @Steve_Garner and you have not answered any of the three points above. Lets see your arguments and substance, rather than resorting to cheap smears.
    - Yes, although so was Litvinenko for a while
    - The target is stable but unconscious, his innocent daughter is in a bad way but improving
    - In combination with other intelligence, yes

    All your chasing down rabbit holes to help the Russians is meaningless. It is clear Russia did it from their response afterwards.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    On the subject of Brexit and trade, I highly recommend watching Pascal Lamy's Select Committee evidence.

    https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8b00ce90-e83d-4f76-8c87-b0d2d2174af7
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,171
    hunchman said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    hunchman said:

    More questions for the UK government over Skripal:

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/three-most-important-aspects-skripal-case-and-where-they-might-be-pointing

    When you're in a hole stop digging!

    You are at one with Putin and the Russian Ambassador - maybe you watch too much Russia Today which is bestowing sainthood on Corbyn, Williamson and Farage as their useful puppets
    More playing the man and not the ball. @Steve_Garner and you have not answered any of the three points above. Lets see your arguments and substance, rather than resorting to cheap smears.
    Well as the Russian Ambassador admitted today he was pleased by the nieces recovery and as Russian TV have played a telephone call between the niece and her cousin in Russia on their TV stations today there is nothing to add
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,154
    and one for the Greens:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/982021268546441216?s=19
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Liverpool should be chucked out of the Champion's League after this. A total disgrace.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-5583597/Why-did-police-expose-Guardiolas-Man-City-players-baying-red-mob.html

    There should be arrests - not surprised the City players were upset - just unacceptable behaviour
    It was before the game too which would have clearly affected the psychological state of the City players during the game. Mental preparation is so important at that level. Liverpool should be kicked out.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,736
    MikeSmithson said:

    Liverpool should be chucked out of the Champion's League after this. A total disgrace.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-5583597/Why-did-police-expose-Guardiolas-Man-City-players-baying-red-mob.html

    What is it about Liverpool fans and big European nights.
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