williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.

We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.

We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.

Do we? Bless

https://order-order.com/2018/04/05/remainers-finally-realising-they-cant-stop-brexit/

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Ishmael_Z said:

I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

For a number of reasons that's the site I normally access the comments from anyway, so that hasn't helped.

Thanks @TSE for confirming it isn't anything at my end.

This is a family site, can we have no further discussions about your end.

Fair enough, Mr Eagles, I earned that rebuke.

Can I talk about my huge organ with its eight foot horn instead?

Absolutely, that is a PB tradition.

I knew if I tried hard enough I'd find something.

RoyalBlue said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Ishmael_Z said:

I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

For a number of reasons that's the site I normally access the comments from anyway, so that hasn't helped.

Thanks @TSE for confirming it isn't anything at my end.

This is a family site, can we have no further discussions about your end.

Fair enough, Mr Eagles, I earned that rebuke.

Can I talk about my huge organ with its eight foot horn instead?

It’s a pity your organ isn’t from Spain or Portugal. When a pipe is perpendicular to the case, it’s hard not to look.

There are British en chamade organs in Brecon Cathedral, Birmingham Symphony Hall and Usk Parish church.

Possibly others, but those are the ones I have played myself.

They give a superb climax.

JackW said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

Ishmael_Z said:

I am getting better results from http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com

For a number of reasons that's the site I normally access the comments from anyway, so that hasn't helped.

Thanks @TSE for confirming it isn't anything at my end.

This is a family site, can we have no further discussions about your end.

Fair enough, Mr Eagles, I earned that rebuke.

Can I talk about my huge organ with its eight foot horn instead?

Absolutely, that is a PB tradition.

I knew if I tried hard enough I'd find something.

Kindly stop examining the inside of your Y fronts !!

To misquote Lord Flasheart, 'the pants haven't been made that'll take my 8 foot horn on'...

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/981996396831236096

How many more council candidates have journalists got stories on, waiting to go after tomorrow’s deadline for nominations?

Sky News Breaking - @SkyNewsBreak: The Professional Darts Corporation says five-time world champion Eric Bristow has died at the age of 60 following a heart attack

My predictions for Brexit:

1. We will stay in the Single Market but it will be called something like "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement" to make it sound more Leavey.

2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

3. We retain the regulatory aspects of the Common Agricultural Policy. We will also retain common tariffs. We will apply an equivalent but slightly different subsidy regime. Scored as a retaking control win.

4. We will be out of the Common Fisheries Policy. In practice it may not make a huge difference except for a new and onerous tariff on processed fish. Control of our waters is seen as primal.

Notes: 1&2 are necessary but possibly not sufficient to maintain car production in the UK (cumulative rules of origin to third countries still a problem); 1, 2 & 3 necessary for the Irish Border issue AND lorries moving through Kent. 3 is necesssary to keep hill farms in business.

5. Blue passports - very important.

6. The UK WILL be a vassal state. More precisely we will move from being a member state to being a client state of the EU. We will accept rules on a do as you told basis.

7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

8. London will remain an important financial centre but no longer the only game in Europe. Financial services will move to the EU over time under any Brexit scenario.

9. Aviation agreements with the EU and with the rest of the World will be less favourable to the UK than now.

10. Odds and ends - arrest warrents, security arrangements etc - will be relatively amicable. Everyone reckons this is win/win.

11. The ECJ will have indirect effect over the entirety of the agreement. The EU won't do (almost) anything different to accommodate the UK .

12. The net cost to us will be no less than it is now. Money buys influence, which will be a commodity that we will feel short of.

13. The end result will be very mediocre, but we will accept it because the only viable alternative is full membership and no-one wants to open that can of worms. In any case we all be totally bored with Brexit and will want to put the thing to bed with the least disruption. Which means accepting the status quo. The EU will be reasonably content because this will demonstrate the benefit of membership and it keeps the UK close and doing what it's told.

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/981996396831236096

How many more council candidates have journalists got stories on, waiting to go after tomorrow’s deadline for nominations?

Probably a lot.

In how many cases will it make any actual difference?

Well we know the Labour leadership don't really give a toss

BigG

Yes, I was attacking his posts not him personally.

Alistair

Quite. Great analogy. 8 million people live here, time to clean up their air.

Inside Porton Down on BBC4 now.

FF43 said:

My predictions for Brexit:

1. We will stay in the Single Market but it will be called something like "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement" to make it sound more Leavey.

2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

3. We retain the regulatory aspects of the Common Agricultural Policy. We will also retain common tariffs. We will apply an equivalent but slightly different subsidy regime. Scored as a retaking control win.

4. We will be out of the Common Fisheries Policy. In practice it may not make a huge difference except for a new and onerous tariff on processed fish. Control of our waters is seen as primal.

Notes: 1&2 are necessary but possibly not sufficient to maintain car production in the UK (cumulative rules of origin to third countries still a problem); 1, 2 & 3 necessary for the Irish Border issue AND lorries moving through Kent. 3 is necesssary to keep hill farms in business.

5. Blue passports - very important.

6. The UK WILL be a vassal state. More precisely we will move from being a member state to being a client state of the EU. We will accept rules on a do as you told basis.

7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

8. London will remain an important financial centre but no longer the only game in Europe. Financial services will move to the EU over time under any Brexit scenario.

9. Aviation agreements with the EU and with the rest of the World will be less favourable to the UK than now.

10. Odds and ends - arrest warrents, security arrangements etc - will be relatively amicable. Everyone reckons this is win/win.

11. The ECJ will have indirect effect over the entirety of the agreement. The EU won't do (almost) anything different to accommodate the UK .

12. The net cost to us will be no less than it is now. Money buys influence, which will be a commodity that we will feel short of.

13. The end result will be very mediocre, but we will accept it because the only viable alternative is full membership and no-one wants to open that can of worms. In any case we all be totally bored with Brexit and will want to put the thing to bed with the least disruption. Which means accepting the status quo. The EU will be reasonably content because this will demonstrate the benefit of membership and it keeps the UK close and doing what it's told.

You mean to say these are your hopes and dreams.

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

It's also silly because it ignores what the engineers call hysteresis. Just because I voted Remain, and continue to think that Brexit is on balance a mistake, it doesn't follow that I would want to rejoin once we've left. In fact, I rather think that the whole referendum experience has been so divisive and unpleasant that the overwhelming sentiment will be 'let's not go there again', assuming of course that Brexit is not a complete and unambiguous economic disaster (such disaster looking increasingly unlikely).

Much more likely is that we settle into a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU which will include close cooperation in many fields, and de facto alignment with much of EU regulations.

In political terms I think it may be rather like views on gay marriage amongst Conservative voters; at the time of the change in the law it was hugely controversial and divisive, but once it had happened, and the world having not come to an end, its salience as an issue very rapidly dissipated.

You’re confusing the Conservative party with the country as a whole. If an increasing majority of the country as a whole thinks Brexit is a mistake, it will be unsustainable.

By 1979, voters were opposed to EU membership by 2:1.

We didn't vote to leave for another 37 years.

FF43 said:

My predictions for Brexit:

2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

JonathanD said:

DavidL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Someone else making a point I have made more than once:

https://twitter.com/ukandeu/status/981927902064324608?s=21

Its dumb, just as your points ion the same subject are dumb. For a start - as has been pointed out to you on countless occasions before - lack of a degree is generally equated with age. If you were 18 before 1973 then you lived at a time when only a tiny percentage of people went to university. Adding together the degree profile and the cohort profile is, to an overwhelming extent, simply double counting the same effect.

Take it up with them, not me.

My main emphasis is on the age of Leave voters. They are far older than Remain voters and in the absence of new recruits, Leave will soon be outnumbered. To gain new recruits, Leave will need to show charm and persuasion. That, of course, is a major problem for them.

That assumes that peoples views do not change as they age. It is the same mistake left wingers have been making for decades.

Much more significantly it assumes that those who had reservations about the disruption of leaving are enthusiastic about the disruption of rejoining. When the status quo is out those wanting to rejoin will have to make a positive case for rejoining. Good luck with that.

The National Trauma of Brexit means we won't rejoin anytime soon, however a country where a majority of the population believe leaving was a mistake will behave very differently than a country where a majority believe leaving was correct.

In most elections, the pro-EU party will win and we will gradually re-align with the EU in most areas, resume freedom of movement , etc, etc.

Post 1975, public opinion turned heavily against EU membership, up until the late 80's, when it began to fluctuate. Yet, the process of integration with the EU continued up till we decided not to join the Euro.

We continued to integrate with the EU right up until 2009.

We continue to integrate as we speak. You can't stop progress just because a few people decide they don't like it.

Well, unfortunately for you, a majority of people decided they didn't like it two years ago, and the policy of HMG is to disintegrate from the EU, and diverge, in a number of areas.

HMG to disintegrate? Quite possible, but unusual for a Leaver to admit it.

Very poor, even for you.

rcs1000 said:

FF43 said:

My predictions for Brexit:

2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

If we were to stay in the Customs Union, then we would share all the EU's current and future trade agreements. In other words, 7 doesn't make sense if 2.

Not true. We would have to grant the same access to third countries as the EU, but they wouldn't need to reciprocate.

FF43 said:

My predictions for Brexit:

1. We will stay in the Single Market but it will be called something like "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement" to make it sound more Leavey.

2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

3. We retain the regulatory aspects of the Common Agricultural Policy. We will also retain common tariffs. We will apply an equivalent but slightly different subsidy regime. Scored as a retaking control win.

4. We will be out of the Common Fisheries Policy. In practice it may not make a huge difference except for a new and onerous tariff on processed fish. Control of our waters is seen as primal.

Notes: 1&2 are necessary but possibly not sufficient to maintain car production in the UK (cumulative rules of origin to third countries still a problem); 1, 2 & 3 necessary for the Irish Border issue AND lorries moving through Kent. 3 is necesssary to keep hill farms in business.

5. Blue passports - very important.

6. The UK WILL be a vassal state. More precisely we will move from being a member state to being a client state of the EU. We will accept rules on a do as you told basis.

7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

8. London will remain an important financial centre but no longer the only game in Europe. Financial services will move to the EU over time under any Brexit scenario.

9. Aviation agreements with the EU and with the rest of the World will be less favourable to the UK than now.

10. Odds and ends - arrest warrents, security arrangements etc - will be relatively amicable. Everyone reckons this is win/win.

11. The ECJ will have indirect effect over the entirety of the agreement. The EU won't do (almost) anything different to accommodate the UK .

12. The net cost to us will be no less than it is now. Money buys influence, which will be a commodity that we will feel short of.

13. The end result will be very mediocre, but we will accept it because the only viable alternative is full membership and no-one wants to open that can of worms. In any case we all be totally bored with Brexit and will want to put the thing to bed with the least disruption. Which means accepting the status quo. The EU will be reasonably content because this will demonstrate the benefit of membership and it keeps the UK close and doing what it's told.

An awful lot of confirmation bias in that.

I don’t think even the Remainest member of the Cabinet is that pessimistic.

FF43 said:

My predictions for Brexit:

1. We will stay in the Single Market but it will be called something like "Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement" to make it sound more Leavey.

2. We will stay in the Customs Union. Name has to be retained because customs unions have particular meaning under WTO regulations.

3. We retain the regulatory aspects of the Common Agricultural Policy. We will also retain common tariffs. We will apply an equivalent but slightly different subsidy regime. Scored as a retaking control win.

4. We will be out of the Common Fisheries Policy.[...] Control of our waters is seen as primal.

Notes: 1&2 are necessary but possibly not sufficient to maintain car production in the UK (cumulative rules of origin to third countries still a problem); 1, 2 & 3 necessary for the Irish Border issue AND lorries moving through Kent. 3 is necesssary to keep hill farms in business.

5. Blue passports

6. The UK WILL be a vassal state. More precisely we will move from being a member state to being a client state of the EU. We will accept rules on a do as you told basis.

7. We don't know what to do about third country trade. We want third parties to give us at least as good access as we had in the EU but they won't all play ball but will see an opportunity to make it more difficult for us to export to them. A motivation behind Brexit was to have LESS free trade into the UK but third countries will want more. To a large extent our hands are tied by the EU.

8. London will remain an important financial centre but no longer the only game in Europe. Financial services will move to the EU over time under any Brexit scenario.

9. Aviation agreements with the EU and with the rest of the World will be less favourable to the UK than now.

10. Odds and ends - arrest warrents, security arrangements etc - will be relatively amicable. Everyone reckons this is win/win.

11. The ECJ will have indirect effect over the entirety of the agreement. The EU won't do (almost) anything different to accommodate the UK .

12. The net cost to us will be no less than it is now. Money buys influence, which will be a commodity that we will feel short of.

13. The end result will be very mediocre, but we will accept it because the only viable alternative is full membership and no-one wants to open that can of worms. In any case we all be totally bored with Brexit and will want to put the thing to bed with the least disruption. Which means accepting the status quo. The EU will be reasonably content because this will demonstrate the benefit of membership and it keeps the UK close and doing what it's told.

Forgot the important:

14. The UK and the EU will agree an immigration policy that will allow the UK to claim it's independent. The policy will be required to be objective, eg offer of work guarantees residence, treating all EU nationalities equally.

MaxPB said:

You mean to say these are your hopes and dreams.

Not at all. It's a nonsense, but we are where are. It's what I expect to happen.

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

You mean to say these are your hopes and dreams.

Not at all. It's a nonsense, but we are where are. It's what I expect to happen.

I’d be keen to read a similarly comprehensive forecast from the Leavers on here. It will be fascinating to see what they are expecting.