politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day and Corbyn’s detachment on Brexit from the vast ma

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Quick way to assist leave in spades

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Quick way to assist leave in spades

Public opinion won't solve the Irish border question...

Recidivist said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

Why should leave need assistance?

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Recidivist said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

Why should leave need assistance?

There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative

Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Recidivist said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

Why should leave need assistance?

There is a co-ordinated action by those in the EU and some in the UK to stop Brexit.

Public opinion is important to support Brexit against the media and establishments narrative

Assume 70% support for Brexit. Where will the Irish customs border be? It doesn't become any easier to solve just because more people get behind Brexit.

It will be solved - we are leaving and if no deal, so be it.

Would you like to explain to the South Wales steelworkers and their families why their futures could be damaged by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels

If we leave with no deal the Irish border issue will clearly not have been solved!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

tlg86 said:

There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

Secondly:

He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

Benpointer said:

tlg86 said:

There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

Secondly:

He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades...

...Would you like to explain to the South Wales steelworkers and their families why their futures could be damaged by unelected Eurocrats in Brussels

tlg86 said:

Benpointer said:

tlg86 said:

There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

Secondly:

He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.

Perhaps, but the point is, when Labour says its manifesto is costed, what they mean is, they found someone who would say it was. As the head of the IFS, I'd suggest Johnson's opinion is worth listening to. And he thinks the Tories are going to have to get honest with the people in the not too distant future. Bottom line is, we're all going to have to pay more in tax in the future.

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Benpointer said:

MarqueeMark said:

Benpointer said:

MarqueeMark said:

You would think some people are surprised at finding that Corbyn is Brexit's bezzy mate. Muppets.

Theresa May is very fortunate in who she is facing. Jeremy's public face of yeah-but-no-but-yeah approach to Brexit has left Labour looking idiotic on the biggest political story since WW2.

Maybe she should call a general election while she's facing an idiotic opposition?

Let Labour tear itself apart over Brexit a bit more first, eh?

While the Tories of course are in complete harmony over Brexit?

MaxPB said:

I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tim hasn't lost his edge.

AndyJS said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tim hasn't lost his edge.

Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

AndyJS said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tim hasn't lost his edge.

Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?

welshowl said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

True. But chances are in this circumstance: outside the EU we would be seen as A list allies, so exempt. Inside: hmm you’re lumped in with the rest of them who don’t spend 2% supporting NATO and have a huge trade imbalance with the US ( yes that’s you Mercedes), so we’d like to exempt you but tough, we can’t sadly.

Meanwhile unelected EU commissioners, who we can’t fire, are plotting revenge against one of our biggest markets, who in other circumstances would have no problem with us.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales

Benpointer said:

ReggieCide said:

Benpointer said:

tlg86 said:

There's an interesting interview in the Guardian with Paul Johnson, the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies:

https://tinyurl.com/y8qks5xx

Two bits stood out to me. Firstly:

He says the government has done well to get the deficit under control, but thinks the pips are now starting to squeak. “If you look at the period up to 2013/14, spending came down without big political consequences or things falling apart. But, in a whole range of areas, that is no longer true. If you look at what’s happening in prisons it’s just disastrous. Local government until 2014 was coping fine. It really isn’t any more. Clearly, the health service is struggling in a way that, three or four years ago, it wasn’t. So it feels as if we’ve got to the crunch point. We’re really beginning to feel the cost.”

It's interesting to hear him talking about things other than the balance sheet. I certainly think he has a point about prisons and local government. I'm not so sure about health - but it doesn't help that the Left will always tell us it's in crisis when the Tories are in power.

Secondly:

He says both of the main political parties are living in a fantasy world. “On the one side you have a party saying you can have all the welfare state we’ve ever had and pay no more tax, which isn’t true. And on the other side, you’ve got them saying we can levy more tax and it’ll be somebody else who pays because it’ll come off companies and the rich, which also isn’t true. Labour’s election manifesto had an awful lot of overestimates about what you can get from companies and the very rich, and didn’t fully balance out. You can’t have European standards of welfare with American-style tax levels. You have to make a choice.”

There was a lot of scepticism on here about Labour's manifesto being costed. And Johnson confirms that the scepticism was well founded.

All Paul Johnson has 'confirmed' is that he too is sceptical of Labour's costings. He thinks they over-estimated what you can get from companies and the very rich, but that's just his estimate against theirs.

And who is more credible, less prejudiced?

No doubt the voters will decide at the next GE

Foxy said:

welshowl said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

True. But chances are in this circumstance: outside the EU we would be seen as A list allies, so exempt. Inside: hmm you’re lumped in with the rest of them who don’t spend 2% supporting NATO and have a huge trade imbalance with the US ( yes that’s you Mercedes), so we’d like to exempt you but tough, we can’t sadly.

Meanwhile unelected EU commissioners, who we can’t fire, are plotting revenge against one of our biggest markets, who in other circumstances would have no problem with us.

One of the positives about Corbyns Brexit policy is that it does not mean sucking up to bullies like Trump.

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales

You've fallen for Gavin Williamson's latest scheme to make a name for himself...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5770199/gavin-williamson-donald-trump-steel-tariff/

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.



Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales

williamglenn said:

welshowl said:

MaxPB said:

I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.

Why has the UK government agreed to no infrastructure and no checks and why are Brexiteers no up in arms about it?

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

AndyJS said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tim hasn't lost his edge.

Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?

Tim who?

Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

AndyJS said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tim hasn't lost his edge.

Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?

Tim who?

A former stalwart of PB.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption.

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.



Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales

FFS! The EU is not threatening UK steelworkers jobs! If there is any threat it comes from Trump!

Say we took the preferential 'offer' that Trump may or may not make. That would put us on the US side of a tariff border with the EU. We export 6% of our steel to the US but 13% to France, 12% to Germany, 9% to Ireland, 8% to the Netherlands and no doubt another sizeable chunk to the rest of the EU.

Leaving the single market is going to have a far worse impact on our steel exports than anything Trump is cooking up.

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption.

That's an awkward threshold. What's his criteria for "contribute to NATO"?

I don't know if you know this but a lot of UK defence planning is up in the air at the moment: the 2015 Spending Review expanded defence spending (yay) but the 2015 SDSR overcommitted (boo) so there was the 2017 National Security Capability Review (NSCR) which floated an absolute shitload of cuts/mergers (boo), so Gavin Williamson went postal (yay!) and the defence stuff is separated out into the 2018 Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) so might be preserved (yay) or might not (boo), nobody knows what's happening and stuff is still being sold off (so bye-bye HMS Ocean).


https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/555607/2015_Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review.pdf
https://rusi.org/publication/whitehall-reports/decision-time-national-security-capability-review-2017–2018
https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-modernising-defence-programme-‘get-programme’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/12/pm-warned-tory-revolt-horrific-defence-cuts/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review_2015

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

welshowl said:

MaxPB said:

I'm still stumped as to why people are making such a huge deal over the Irish border. Switzerland shares a border with three EU countries and it's not in the customs union. If it can be done in Switzerland it can be done on Ireland.

Quite. They ( including the Irish and especially Varadkar) are making a big deal because they want to. It’s not seamless now. You can’t by cigarettes in Newry retail and sell them in Dundalk, as it is.

It’s a stick to attempt to beat us with, to try and stop us diverging, which is the EU’s obvious worry.

Why has the UK government agreed to no infrastructure and no checks and why are Brexiteers no up in arms about it?

The leavers simply will not be drawn into blackmail

I wonder if that emotion could be harnessed by convincing them the EU is trying to kick us out...

viewcode said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

AndyJS said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tim hasn't lost his edge.

Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?

Tim who?

Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.

My only consolation is how many more years than me some of the old-timers have been here, and that my post-count remains under 10,000. (Though it isn't counting all those vanished comments from the Disqus Era. Nor the whatever-it-was-that-we-had-for-all-those-years-before-Disqus.)

My posts to this timesink date from about 2010/11. So Tim is a bit before my time. Could you in a sentence or two describe him and why the good folk of PB have such a reaction.

ReggieCide said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

J

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales

FFS! The EU is not threatening UK steelworkers jobs! If there is any threat it comes from Trump!

Say we took the preferential 'offer' that Trump may or may not make. That would put us on the US side of a tariff border with the EU. We export 6% of our steel to the US but 13% to France, 12% to Germany, 9% to Ireland, 8% to the Netherlands and no doubt another sizeable chunk to the rest of the EU.

Leaving the single market is going to have a far worse impact on our steel exports than anything Trump is cooking up.

oooh, very shouty

MaxPB said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

MyBurningEars said:

Benpointer said:

AndyJS said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tim hasn't lost his edge.

Is GOsbourneGenius Tim?

Tim who?

Shut up, you're making me feel old and feel guilty about how many years of my life I've wasted on this site. All in six letters and a punctuation mark? You utter bar steward.

Your welcome!

Ahhh, but you've been sucked into it too - I think of you as a recent (but very welcome) addition to the site, yet your post count, albeit Vanilla-only, has almost crossed over my own. In ten years' time, or in three more commenting systems (which I believe is the official era-measurer of PB), you'll be nursing the milestone of your 50,000th post and wondering just where all the time has gone!

Occasionally wiser heads than I suggest a sin tax on addictive products but I fear for OGH's bank balance if one's ever brought in...

I think if you added up all of Ben's previous personas it would be rather higher than two thousand posts.

MaxPB said:

John_M said:

I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?

ReggieCide said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption.

That's an awkward threshold. What's his criteria for "contribute to NATO"?

I don't know if you know this but a lot of UK defence planning is up in the air at the moment: the 2015 Spending Review expanded defence spending (yay) but the 2015 SDSR overcommitted (boo) so there was the 2017 National Security Capability Review (NSCR) which floated an absolute shitload of cuts/mergers (boo), so Gavin Williamson went postal (yay!) and the defence stuff is separated out into the 2018 Modernising Defence Programme (MDP) so might be preserved (yay) or might not (boo), nobody knows what's happening and stuff is still being sold off (so bye-bye HMS Ocean).


https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/555607/2015_Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review.pdf
https://rusi.org/publication/whitehall-reports/decision-time-national-security-capability-review-2017–2018
https://rusi.org/commentary/uk-modernising-defence-programme-‘get-programme’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/12/pm-warned-tory-revolt-horrific-defence-cuts/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Defence_and_Security_Review_2015

We've always spent a lot on the RAF

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Just heard the EU threaten the UK if Trump offers the UK a deal on steel tariffs due to our contributions to NATO.

Apparently there is some thought the UK will be exempt but the EU is intent on stopping our exemption and risking thousands of steel jobs, particularly in South Wales

Quick way to assist leave in spades

The US only gets 6% of UK steel exports, and what they get is all very high end. It's simply not economic to ship semi finished or hot rolled steel from South Wales to the US.

The limited steel exports we do have to the US are high end alloys, and it is not clear how broad Trump's definition of "steel" is.

ITV Wales featured the threat to the steel workers jobs with the Unions and workers expressing great concern.

The threat surely comes from Trump, not the EU?

Trump has stated Countries who are allies and contribute to NATO are eligible for exemption. The unelected in Brussels have told the UK the UK cannot be exempt if the EU is not.

Hence fury with the EU if this actually happens

Suspect the 'fury with the EU' is only amongst those who were always looking for reasons to be furious with the EU. Given we are currently in the single market, I cannot see how we could face different tariffs than other EU countries. The problem is of Trump's creation, not the EU's.

Try telling that to the steelworkers. It is the EU threatening the UK if Trump gives the UK exemption and that it is not going to argur well for the EU if it happens

As RCS points out downthread, it's a threat to 6% of our exports. Given those are generally high-end products they will in all probability continue unchecked despite any tariffs.

I know you love to fan the anti-EU fires BIG_G, but we're leaving anyway so what's the point in blaming the EU for this piece of Trump stuplidity?

The EU threatening the UK and steelworkers jobs is not acceptable to those of us living in Wales

ReggieCide said:

John_M said:

MaxPB said:

John_M said:

I agree. It's (from the UK perspective) a storm in a teacup. Our total steel exports to the US (of all types) amounts to £360m odd, which is ~0.3% of our total exports to the USA, and ~0.06% of our total exports.

What's more worrying is that it derails the free trade narrative that Fox keeps peddling (which is odd, given the UK's economy is service based, and extant FTAs don't generally address services in anything more than a rudimentary manner).

In terms of NI border, we should have assumed WTO and started digging ditches and building lorry parks 18 months ago. It may not be soluble, as it's clearly a political, rather than a logistical issue.

Switzerland manages without those, and it has borders with Germany, France, Italy and Austria. If it can be done in Switzerland, a nation which exports a lot more in terms of its GDP than Ireland or the UK, then it can be done at the Irish border.

As I said, I'm genuinely confused as to why this has turned into such a big deal. There will be no travel restrictions, which is people's biggest fear and the UK can unilaterally allow Irish citizens the right to resettle in the UK and vice versa, just as Ireland does now for anyone born in NI.

A customs border really isn't a big deal, definitely not as big a deal as is being made out at the moment. If a real border crossing was being suggested then I could understand the issues, but no one has suggested that Ireland will leave the CTA, have they?

The Swiss haven't had an insurgency in recent decades. I agree it's overblown - the GFA is being treated as if Moses had tottered down from the mount with it graven on tablets of stone.

However, for those of us who remember playing Chris Crawford's 'Balance of Power', minor issues can derail any political process.

If the EU are making it a red line (as they appear to be), then (given that technical solutions are unacceptable to Varadkar) May has to either roll over or tell them to fuck off.

can you roll over in a ditch?