politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s wors
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s worst night of local elections since TMay became PM
Farnworth on Bolton (Lab defence) Result: Con 153 (6% -3% on last time), Lab 969 (38% -10% on last time), Lib Dem 23 (1% -2% on last time), UKIP 169 (7% -29% on last time), Green 18 (1% -3% on last time), Residents 1,204 (47%, no candidate last time) Residents GAIN from Labour with a majority of 235 (9%) on a notional swing of 28.5% from Lab to Residents (9.5% from UKIP to Lab)
Comments
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first?0
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According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.0
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Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
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41 votes for Bus-Pass Elvis Party in Wollaton.0
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Losing 5 out of 5 is very poor. But, it is against the run of play since the start of the year (prior to yesterday, the Conservatives had won 27 out of 52).Theuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils0 -
So let's ignore the 5 Tory losses and focus on the single Labour loss. Very good.Sean_F said:According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.
What about that swing in Medway?0 -
That surprises me. I'd have expected an easy Conservative hold. I'm not surprised by the loss in Nottingham, but I'd have expected the Conservatives to win 4.SandyRentool said:
So let's ignore the 5 Tory losses and focus on the single Labour loss. Very good.Sean_F said:According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.
What about that swing in Medway?0 -
That's a desperately poor set of results for the Conservatives all round.0
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They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.0
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Small number of votersTheuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
NIMBYs
not enough media coverage of Jeremy Corbyn's facebook profile
Independents who are Tory really
Any more for any more?0 -
It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.DavidL said:They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.
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Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.Theuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils0 -
If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.
(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)0 -
Farnworth and Kearsley First in Bolton0
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Tories are away skiing.tpfkar said:
Small number of votersTheuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils
NIMBYs
not enough media coverage of Jeremy Corbyn's facebook profile
Independents who are Tory really
Any more for any more?0 -
Nottingham close to being a one party city.Sean_F said:
That surprises me. I'd have expected an easy Conservative hold. I'm not surprised by the loss in Nottingham, but I'd have expected the Conservatives to win 4.SandyRentool said:
So let's ignore the 5 Tory losses and focus on the single Labour loss. Very good.Sean_F said:According to Andrew Teale, Labour are in complete disarray on Bolton Council, and this result (and a loss to the Tories a couple of weeks ago) confirms it.
What about that swing in Medway?
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Personation.0
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Or a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the alternative at national level that does not apply locally. If I was a Tory Councillor up in May I wouldn't be too thrilled by this.AlastairMeeks said:
It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.DavidL said:They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.
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A terrrrriibbble night for the Conservatives....
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I think it is fair to say at the moment very few people are enthusiastic about any sort of politics.AlastairMeeks said:
It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.DavidL said:They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.
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I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".Ishmael_Z said:
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.Theuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils0 -
It depends whether last night marks the start of a trend against the Conservatives, or whether this year's results as a whole are more representative.DavidL said:
Or a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the alternative at national level that does not apply locally. If I was a Tory Councillor up in May I wouldn't be too thrilled by this.AlastairMeeks said:
It suggests a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Team Conservatives, whatever the opinion poll headline results might be suggesting.DavidL said:They're doomed, they're doomed, they're....on 43%.
So far this year, the Conservatives have won 28 out of 60 (not 27 as stated earlier) a net loss of three.0 -
Um, yes, that was why I said it.logical_song said:
I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".Ishmael_Z said:
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.Theuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils0 -
OT - Clever tactic by HMG re Brexit repatriated powers and the devolved administrations:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43343716
It's not 25 powers out of 111 at issue, but 24 out of 155 - not sure that will fool many people in Scotland.
The expected big items are there - farming support, GMO regulation, animal health/welfare, fisheries powers not already exercised, competition law etc.0 -
*Vince Cable goes home to preparelogical_song said:
I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".Ishmael_Z said:
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.Theuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councilsa cup of cocoafor government. *0 -
Comes under the heading of 'the bleeding obvious'.Ishmael_Z said:
Um, yes, that was why I said it.logical_song said:
I think you're fairly safe saying the swing is "unlikely to be replicated on a national level" but then it was a "swing of 36% from Con to Lib Dem".Ishmael_Z said:
Typical mid term result. Northchurch on Dacorum swing unlikely to be replicated on a national level, anyway.Theuniondivvie said:Sweepstake on top responses?
Local circumstances
Weather
Voter fatigue
Bloody Kippers going Lab
Who cares about parish councils0 -
The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]0 -
I don't normally go in for selective quoting of figures, but doesn't today's news show the trade deficit widening?DavidL said:If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.
(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/972048961098993664
(correction - wrong tweet)0 -
Wasn't he the one who wanted to set up an organic community cafe called Viv Las Vegans?rottenborough said:41 votes for Bus-Pass Elvis Party in Wollaton.
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It widened in January but there was a downward revisal of the whole of 2017. It was discussed on the previous thread.FF43 said:
I don't normally go in for selective quoting of figures, but doesn't today's news show the trade deficit widening?DavidL said:If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.
(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/972048961098993664
(correction - wrong tweet)0 -
https://twitter.com/TheCGA/status/972101059983413248
"February, 1948
THE straw poll-so called one supposes because a straw shows the way the wind blows-has become a feature with most newspapers. One is informed which is the favourite film for the year, the popularity status of the respective political parties, details of domestic budgets and all that sort of thing. One such questioning put to the public by the Daily Express tried to find the priority job for the Government in 1948. Among the nine items listed, food came first, followed by housing, economic finance, exports, foreign relations, taxation, fuel, Empire development . . . and the ninth? Well if you must know, it was agriculture and it polled exactly 1 per cent! Food led the list at 41 per cent, with housing as its nearest rival, 29 per cent. Empire co-operation was twin sister to Cinderella agriculture with 1 per cent.
What are people thinking about? If food polls 41 per cent, why should Empire development and agriculture be rated so low as 1 per cent? Do they really think that the Argentinos, the Danes and the Dutch are fairy godmothers? Ridiculous!
The people are ignorant but it is not their fault entirely, because so much spoon-feeding goes on nowadays, especially in the form of propaganda, that the art of thinking things out for oneself becomes more and more difficult. I am going to tilt at Goliath and blame the N.F.U. for the lack of public interest in agriculture. The N.F.U. allocates a large portion of its not inconsiderable funds, for publicity purposes, and if the officials of that organization would only interpret publicity as "city public" and enlighten the masses about the importance of British agriculture, the result would be beneficial to both farmers and townsfolk. The latter probably think that the N.F.U. is an organization something like the N.U.R. so, in any case, it is just as well to let them know that the Farmers' Union is almost the only union that has not achieved greatness by advocating a strike policy on every possible occasion, for if farmers did strike, the townsfolk would starve."0 -
What a difference a year makes.
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Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other0
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I think the deficit has widened across the second half of 2017, according to the ONS table. But fair enough.DavidL said:
It widened in January but there was a downward revisal of the whole of 2017. It was discussed on the previous thread.FF43 said:
I don't normally go in for selective quoting of figures, but doesn't today's news show the trade deficit widening?DavidL said:If they'd only known that our trade deficit for 2017 was going to be revised down so markedly today I am sure it would all have been different.
(How's that for one not on the lists below?) :-)
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/972048961098993664
(correction - wrong tweet)0 -
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket0 -
In the 2014 Locals, the Tories lost over 200 councillors but went on to get a parliamentary majority in 2015.0
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The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...0 -
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
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Ed Miliband only won those elections by 2% though, Blair and Cameron won their final local elections as leader by over 10%Sunil_Prasannan said:In the 2014 Locals, the Tories lost over 200 councillors but went on to get a parliamentary majority in 2015.
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Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
HYUFD said:
Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The problem for you Tories is that, if you polarise the country between "them" and "us", and the "us" cotton on to what you are trying to do, then there could very well a massive concentration of the anti-Tory vote, in favour of whoever seems best place to defeat the Tory candidate. This is what we have seen in the local elections this week.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
This is not necessarily in favour of the Labour candidate, so the traditional Corbyn-Labour scare tactics will not work for the Tories next time. At least, I hope not.0 -
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, which would be its highest voteshare since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...0 -
OMG. That is incredible.Theuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...0 -
The former Labour councillor in Harlow ...... the one who resigned and caused the by-election ..... has rtather thrown his toys out of the pram on Tv.
Not the Labour Party he joined etc.
Pro Tory BBC East of England political reporter seems to be making a bit of a meal of it.0 -
A poll last year showed Labour would get a 2% lower voteshare against the Tories under Cooper or Umunna than under Corbyn, only Khan got a higher Labour voteshare than Corbyn but by just 1%Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-50 -
Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awardsTheuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshareHHemmelig said:
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
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Everybody knows it's Kier Hardy.DavidL said:
OMG. That is incredible.Theuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
"The flounder of the Labour Party"TheScreamingEagles said:
Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awardsTheuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
Or the Keir & Hardy awards....TheScreamingEagles said:
Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awardsTheuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always
0 -
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/972110450660954113TheScreamingEagles said:
Could have been worse, they could have called it the Keir Starmer awardsTheuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
There will likely be an anti Tory and anti Labour vote next time but the fact the minor parties were so squeezed at the general election means there is little more room for tactical votingPClipp said:HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The problem for you Tories is that, if you polarise the country between "them" and "us", and the "us" cotton on to what you are trying to do, then there could very well a massive concentration of the anti-Tory vote, in favour of whoever seems best place to defeat the Tory candidate. This is what we have seen in the local elections this week.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
This is not necessarily in favour of the Labour candidate, so the traditional Corbyn-Labour scare tactics will not work for the Tories next time. At least, I hope not.0 -
Quite funny.DavidL said:
OMG. That is incredible.Theuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always
https://twitter.com/PeterGrantMP/status/9721029561191915530 -
Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general electionHHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...0 -
eukation, eukation, eukation...Theuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
(i) Those are arch-blairites, toxic to many on the left.HYUFD said:
A poll last year showed Labour would get a 2% lower voteshare against the Tories under Cooper or Umunna than under Corbyn, only Khan got a higher Labour voteshare than Corbyn but by just 1%Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
(ii) May 2017? Not much happened since then, I suppose *eyeroll*0 -
Oliver's socialist brother.Ishmael_Z said:
Everybody knows it's Kier Hardy.DavidL said:
OMG. That is incredible.Theuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always0 -
Nevertheless it has been a steep decline for the Tories in Nottingham South, where they now down to their last 2 councillors...hard to believe now that in the first few hours of the GE2015 results coverage, the BBC were projecting it as a Con gain.HYUFD said:
Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshareHHemmelig said:
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
0 -
Another Labour loss with a disproportionate swing in a usually favourable part of Bolton - there was one of those a few weeks back - something very rum in that nexk of the woods.0
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i) When was Cooper a Blairite? Even Umunna opposed the Iraq WarAnorak said:
(i) Those are arch-blairites, toxic to many on the left.HYUFD said:
A poll last year showed Labour would get a 2% lower voteshare against the Tories under Cooper or Umunna than under Corbyn, only Khan got a higher Labour voteshare than Corbyn but by just 1%Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
(ii) May 2017? Not much happened since then, I suppose *eyeroll*
ii) Irrelevant as the relative difference would still likely be the same between the other 3 and Corbyn0 -
Correct, I was merely correcting your statement that today's poll is "Labour's highest rating since 1997". Actually I think they may have polled above today's level at the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003 and perhaps at the beginning of the 2005 election campaign when they had one or two poll ratings in the low 40s. Certainly in many polls just ahead of the 2001 election Labour were above 42%.HYUFD said:
Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general electionHHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...0 -
Same in almost all big citiesHHemmelig said:
Nevertheless it has been a steep decline for the Tories in Nottingham South, where they now down to their last 2 councillors...hard to believe now that in the first few hours of the GE2015 results coverage, the BBC were projecting it as a Con gain.HYUFD said:
Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshareHHemmelig said:
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
0 -
I changed it to 'would be its highest voteshare since 1997' so should have been clearer, apologies.HHemmelig said:
Correct, I was merely correcting your statement that today's poll is "Labour's highest rating since 1997". Actually I think they may have polled above today's level at the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003 and perhaps at the beginning of the 2005 election campaign when they had one or two poll ratings in the low 40s. Certainly in many polls just ahead of the 2001 election Labour were above 42%.HYUFD said:
Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general electionHHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
0 -
0
-
Umunna defeated Steve Reed (now MP for Croydon North) for the nomination in Streatham by posing as a left wing challenger to a well known Blairite. Then morphed into a particularly slimy Blairite himself. Hardly a surprise he is hated by the left and it's likely he'll be in serious trouble for reselection if boundary changes significantly alter his seat.HYUFD said:
i) When was Cooper a Blairite? Even Umunna opposed the Iraq War
ii) Irrelevant as the relative difference would still likely be the same between the other 3 and Corbyn
Cooper is an empty vessel with a permanently miserable/outraged face....not the best demeanour for winning elections.
0 -
Labour routinely polled in the mid-40s under Miliband after the Omnishambles budget, and was up there under Corbyn after the 2017 election, including a 44% with Mori last September. They also peaked at two polls with 44% just before Brown didn't call the election in 2007.HHemmelig said:
Correct, I was merely correcting your statement that today's poll is "Labour's highest rating since 1997". Actually I think they may have polled above today's level at the beginning of the Iraq war in 2003 and perhaps at the beginning of the 2005 election campaign when they had one or two poll ratings in the low 40s. Certainly in many polls just ahead of the 2001 election Labour were above 42%.HYUFD said:
Yet it only got 40% at the 2001 general electionHHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...0 -
Keir Hardy was Jeremy Hardy's long lost ancestor.Theuniondivvie said:
Quite funny.DavidL said:
OMG. That is incredible.Theuniondivvie said:Good old SLab, they never* let you down.
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/972085375916298240
*always
https://twitter.com/PeterGrantMP/status/9721029561191915530 -
-
All the above comments are true. The background is that Nottingham Labour has had remarkable campaigning expertise for some time, long before Corbyn arrived, and the potential middle-class left-of-centre vote has been persuaded quite a while back - that's why there are very few non-Labour councillors left in the city. I think at this stage Labour can only really hope to maintain its position there, not pile up lots more.HHemmelig said:
Nevertheless it has been a steep decline for the Tories in Nottingham South, where they now down to their last 2 councillors...hard to believe now that in the first few hours of the GE2015 results coverage, the BBC were projecting it as a Con gain.HYUFD said:
Yes in terms of raw Tory voteshareHHemmelig said:
The Nottingham result was far better than expected for the Tories....Wollaton is a wealthy liberal Remainy kind of area next to the university, the kind of place where you might have expected a Canterbury or Kensington swing to Labour. Ironically it is the former ward of John Hayes MP who couldn't have been a very good match with its liberal brand of Toryism.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
0 -
Yes I forgot that short lived Brown bounce.david_herdson said:
Labour routinely polled in the mid-40s under Miliband after the Omnishambles budget, and was up there under Corbyn after the 2017 election, including a 44% with Mori last September. They also peaked at two polls with 44% just before Brown didn't call the election in 2007.
Did anyone see QT last night? I imagine that mouthy idiot Pidcock did wonders for the Tory poll share. It's no mean feat for a panellist to be so bad as to make me warm to Liam Fox. The explanation for the Tories being at 40%+ in the polls in a nutshell.
0 -
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:HHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.0 -
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
0 -
Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.Sean_F said:
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
This is an interesting thread on spotting bots on twitter:
https://twitter.com/edmarno/status/9720957348866662400 -
Who's going to argue, now that he is bringing world peace to us all.Sean_F said:
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
Or Ann Coulter.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.Sean_F said:
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.david_herdson said:
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:HHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.0 -
He needs a proven ratings winner: Judge Judy.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.Sean_F said:
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
Yeh, that Blair, he was useless.Sean_F said:
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.david_herdson said:
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:HHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.0 -
Only if you Tories are so stupid as go for a plebiscite in favour of creating a May Dictatorship again.HYUFD said:
There will likely be an anti Tory and anti Labour vote next time but the fact the minor parties were so squeezed at the general election means there is little more room for tactical votingPClipp said:HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
The problem for you Tories is that, if you polarise the country between "them" and "us", and the "us" cotton on to what you are trying to do, then there could very well a massive concentration of the anti-Tory vote, in favour of whoever seems best place to defeat the Tory candidate. This is what we have seen in the local elections this week.HYUFD said:Though in the 2 Labour gains it was mainly the UKIP and Green votes going to Labour that was key, the Tory voteshare was up 8% in one and down just 3% in the other
This is not necessarily in favour of the Labour candidate, so the traditional Corbyn-Labour scare tactics will not work for the Tories next time. At least, I hope not.0 -
or Melania.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.Sean_F said:
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/972102966881726465
Or Ivanka.
Or himself.0 -
rottenborough said:
Yeh, that Blair, he was useless.Sean_F said:
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.david_herdson said:
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:HHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.
Brilliant electioneer. Terrible PM.
Though not as terrible as Brown.
0 -
I reckon it's between Ivanka and Melania.Sean_F said:
Or Ann Coulter.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.Sean_F said:
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
Glenn Beck would be awesome.Sean_F said:
Or Ann Coulter.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trump's going to nominate Roy Moore.Sean_F said:
What a fight over the nomination that will be. This is when Trump will nominate Sarah Palin to SCOTUS.TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
F1: just two hours and a few minutes to go, and that's it until the first race weekend, in a fortnight.0 -
Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.
‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;
At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.0 -
Shocking wasn't she. Huffing and puffing all over the place.HHemmelig said:
Yes I forgot that short lived Brown bounce.david_herdson said:
Labour routinely polled in the mid-40s under Miliband after the Omnishambles budget, and was up there under Corbyn after the 2017 election, including a 44% with Mori last September. They also peaked at two polls with 44% just before Brown didn't call the election in 2007.
Did anyone see QT last night? I imagine that mouthy idiot Pidcock did wonders for the Tory poll share. It's no mean feat for a panellist to be so bad as to make me warm to Liam Fox. The explanation for the Tories being at 40%+ in the polls in a nutshell.
I mentioned it during the programme last night - if she is the best hope for the next generation of Corbynites, we're not going to have Corbynite dominance of the Labour party for much longer....0 -
OldKingCole said:
Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.
‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;
At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.
We didn't have a 'load' of opt-outs, that was the problem!
0 -
Replacement before the mid terms?TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
Yet the polls indicate that the Tory share is higher than it has been, in government, for aggges.OldKingCole said:Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.
‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;
At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.0 -
The Euro? Personally, when I join a club I observe the rules.MarkHopkins said:OldKingCole said:Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.
‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;
At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.
We didn't have a 'load' of opt-outs, that was the problem!0 -
When we joined the club that wasn't a ruleOldKingCole said:
The Euro? Personally, when I join a club I observe the rules.MarkHopkins said:OldKingCole said:Apols if this has been posted earlier, but Robert Peston is complainig that the Luxemburg has summed up the British Brexit position better than he ever could.
‘They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out and want a load of opt-ins.’;
At the (non-political) discussion group I go to someone commented, to agreement, yesterday that we’re proud to be British but ashamed of our present Government.
We didn't have a 'load' of opt-outs, that was the problem!0 -
Paddy A as LotO. Could have been fun!Sean_F said:
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.david_herdson said:
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:HHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.0 -
As it's Friday afternoon, I wonder which 12 Tories. Who would the Tory leader have been?OldKingCole said:
Paddy A as LotO. Could have been fun!Sean_F said:
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.david_herdson said:
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:HHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.0 -
Don't think this is true: I think the GOP Senator is worried he's gonna lose to a Dem and wants to make voters think a Supreme Court seat is in the running.Charles said:
Replacement before the mid terms?TheScreamingEagles said:Bugger, he's a briliant judge.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/9721029668817264650 -
How many complaints would the LibDems have made about the unfairness of FPTP?OldKingCole said:
Paddy A as LotO. Could have been fun!Sean_F said:
According to Electoral Calculus, that would have produced 603 Labour MPs, 18 Lib Dems, 12 Conservatives.david_herdson said:
Labour's peak poll result was with Gallup, in November 1997:HHemmelig said:
Labour's poll share was far higher than 42% through most of the 1997-2001 parliament.HYUFD said:
Or you could look at the latest polling today putting Labour on 42%, it's highest rating since 1997 and a total any centre left party in Europe losing votes to anti immigration and anti globalisation parties at present would give their eye teeth for.Anorak said:
The 'confirmation bias' was meant to indicate it was an opinion, not a fact.HYUFD said:
Evidence? Recent German, Italian, Dutch and US elections suggest otherwise.Anorak said:The Tory's defy gravity in national polling by keeping leaver and anyone-but-Corbyn voters. Local voters can think differently. Shows that if Labour had a moderate leader, they'd be 10 points ahead, easily.
[there may be some confirmation bias in the above]
Even in France Macron did not run on the Socialist Party ticket
But I suppose you could view the fact that a Labour Party led by an antisemitic, anti-western trot with links to terrorist organisations and vicious authoritarian regimes, who has threatened the free press and our financial system, who has shown a complete absence of understanding how the economy works, has surrounded himself with proven liars and incompetents, and has directly accused our forces of murdering children in Yemen, is still level pegging in the polls as *evidence*, if you like...
Lab 63
Con 23
LD 11.0
