politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid
At a dinner in Washington on Wednesday high profile Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, made what is being seen as the start of her bid to win the 2020 White House race.
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I'm just wondering how US politics could get more preposterous. The Democrats should roll with the tide and put up a suitably unsuitable candidate. I'm struggling to think of anyone unsuitable enough ...
Third like.... spoilt ballots in the EU referendum.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/trumps-tariffs-global-order-396508?lo=ap_b1
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/08/gillibrand-texas-democratic-primary-445454
7/1 doesn't seem too bad to me tbh for Warren.
She could be a unity candidate between Bernie and Hillary.
She's left wing enough to enthuse the base.
“The U.S. military requirements for steel and aluminum each only represent about three percent of U.S. production,” Mattis wrote in a memo. “Therefore, DoD does not believe that the findings in the reports impact the ability of DoD programs to acquire the steel or aluminum necessary to meet national defense requirements.”
Could I suggest Chris Murphy (Senator, Connecticut) or Gina Raimondo (Governor, Rhode Island)?
(Or Ralph Northam?)
He's won twice as Governor in a swing state, and has executive experience.
Why not?
I'll get my cape ...
On the wider news, Trump is trying a "Nixon in China"/"Reagan in Iceland" gambit, and deserves more credit than he's getting. Because he's not a detail man there's a risk that his aides will bog him down in traditional demands which get nowhere, which is arguably what happened in Iceland to Reagan when he nearly reached a nuclear reduction deal with Gorbachev which went way beyond what most advisers wanted. It's a risk, but the status quo was a bigger risk.
Are there particularly Bernie like, or at least Bernie lite candidates hanging around in the younger ranks?
A white septuagenarian female insider (because it's time for a female president) who has boundless arrogance, nil understanding of economic issues and zero empathy for swing voters didn't quite work last time. Let's try it again and see what happens.
I mean, what was so bad about last time? Oh, that's right, it gave us Donald Trump as President. Thanks guys, we appreciate that so much.
Warren will be 71 by the time of the next election, which would set another new record for the oldest-ever first-term president (though would potentially be up against Trump who, at 74, would be seeking to be the oldest person ever elected to the office). It really is time the next generation came through.
https://youtu.be/pqsa0c8lHv0
If he wins and goes to Congress he could become a national figure fairly quickly. The Democrats really need something different and a lot more authentic to take on Trump. And, in my opinion, Warren is just more of the same.
Sanders and Biden are too old and I don't think either will run, but endorsement may be important.
By contrast, I don't see any possibility at all that Kim will give up his nuclear programme (indeed, he's said as much). So why then does he want to engage in talks? There are only two rational explanations I can think of for now. One - in line with past N Korean actions - is that he can cut a deal that banks past gains and cuts sanctions without giving up anything of significance. He'll then later revert to carrying on testing and developing, which he'll claim is in response to some 'provocation', like S Korea having an army, or something. The other, is that he thinks he's already reached a state of equality and is happy to give up future development in return for recognition of the status quo. Neither should be satisfactory to the US.
He speaks well too. In a party crying out for new leadership he could rise fast but he has to win his Congressional seat which voted for Trump by something like 80% (and could you get a better indicator of the way to go than that?).
https://twitter.com/MrKenShabby/status/971862503155257344
I don't think Biden is going to pass up a chance to run against a candidate who completely negates the age question - and if he does, he'll likely win.
Yeah, the odds are short given the uncertainty and the time scale involved. For reasons of Morris Dancer's Wallet, it would be better if Harris or Gillibrand got it.
F1: final day of testing live feed is up here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/formula1/43288515
https://twitter.com/jamesmenendez/status/971825066005729280
He voted for Trump which is the big shock but it is an interesting interview (so far) focuses seem to be the more economic case and the left, talks a lot of things I like.
Although this is TYT which is Sanders like program so he could just be selling to his base. Regardless I haven't heard him say much I don't like... apart from maybe voting Trump he is impressive in what he says not just a good campaign video.
Titled A Pro-Trump Progressive Candidate?!
https://youtube.com/watch?v=rnRbiq1f0iQ
Edit: Towards the end he mentions he supported Sanders so maybe not just stuff for the benefit of TYT.
Last chance for Mercedes to indicate their real pace (though they might well resist the temptation).
in the mid-twelfth century a destrier (warhorse) could cost the equivalent of 4,500 sheep.
Turns out I'm one of the problems, no one has had as many pay reviews/increases as me in the last few years.
As an aside there's a great scope for manipulating the gender pay gap figures depending on the methodology you use.
Arithmetic mean, median, or modal salaries really can distort figures.
Yeah it has felt like the Democrat party is just there to advance social values for a while, Ojeda from the sounds of it is running the kind of Democrat campaign I have thought they should do for a while, hammer away on economics make everything else secondary and as reasonable as possible. Obviously I wouldn't be a trump voter myself but even that really works for his benefit in this regard.
Whoever mentioned the other one she does seem very on the hawkish side but I figure the Democrats usually have to be pretty hawkish to get anywhere. Saw an interview where she seemed to reasonably explain some Muslim criticism. Probably not my perfect choice but seems a decent prospect.
We kind of point out lower paid employees work circa 35 hours a week, whereas our top end employees can work up to 80 to 100 hours a week at times.
On the flip side I'm the reason why an ethnic minority employee gets paid more than a white British employee*
I'm sure Tommy Robinson will be out protesting against us soon.
*Small sample sizes really do distort things.
As Trump will be 74 when he seeks re election I doubt the fact Biden and Sanders are also in their 70s will have much impact. In fact challengers to a sitting President tend to be older experienced hands e.g. Romney, Kerry, Dole, Mondale, Reagan, McGovern, Goldwater etc rather than younger fresher figures likes Kennedy, Carter, Dukakis, W Bush, Obama etc who tend to challenge VPs and/or run after 8 years of the opposition party in the White House. Clinton of course only ran after 12 years of a Republican in the Oval Office
Or (more likely) will they pick someone from their comfort zone who wins huge majorities in California and the North east and loses everywhere else. Nate Silver reckons there’s a strong chance of Trump repeating his trick from 2016 of losing the popular vote but winning the EC
https://www.geek.com/tech/ai-beats-human-lawyers-at-their-own-game-1732154/
In fact the last candidate to beat a 1 term President after only 4 years of his party out of the Oval Office was Reagan in 1980 who was 69 and had narrowly lost the 1976 GOP primaries to Ford who then went on to lose narrowly Carter. On that basis Sanders might be the Democrats best bet given his narrow 2016 prinary loss to Hillary and her narrow general election loss to Trump
By contrast he tied with Warren and lost by 4% to Sanders and 9% to Biden
https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/democrats-lead-8-points-generic-house-ballot-nationally/
Of course there's plenty of time for things to change, but I'm not seeing the opportunity for a younger contender to establish themselves sufficiently to challenge Trump - and I think Warren or Sanders risk a second term for Trump.
Dems number 1 priority is to find a message/theme. What is it in a few words? We know what Trump's will be: "I'm making America great again, let me finish the job'.
From a distance, I see no sign that Dems have any idea what theirs will be.
Whilst there is a gender pay gap in our favour is that
1) We pay around 5% more than the average sector, and 8% more than the North West average
2) We have a generous holiday package, 28 days plus stats, and 1 day a year extra for every full year you've served (capped at 10)
3) Free creche and nursery services
4) Flexible working
5) Generous bonus packages
6) A range of discounts for the staff
7) Everyone is on above the living wage.
8) The lower paid staff get a £150 gift card each November.
Not much of a betting strategy at this stage. My latest gut thinking is it will be Biden, but no hard evidence for that really. Very early days.
IF Trump is the President when peace comes to Korea and the North's nuclear threat is removed, he will win re-election whatever the Democrats say or do.
It's an extraordinary move masterminded by the South Koreans who, after all, have everything to gain and everything to lose. I can't help but feel NK has been offered "something" to come to the table - a relaxation or indeed the ending of sanctions from both the US and China - or some kind of guarantee of support if there were a unilateral attack from the US.
If President Moon does pull this off, he'll deserve all the plaudits going - his role would be analogous to Carter getting Sadat and Begin together. As for Trump and Kim Jong-Un, both know a place in history awaits - Trump going to meet Jong-Un isn't quite Nixon going to Beijing but it's not far off it and I can only wonder if the relationship between Trump and President Xi has played a part in this as well.
I wish all parties well - a significant easing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula will help us all.
Interestingly, Irwin Sletzer says in this months Standpoint magazine that he thinks the Dems will try to impeach even if they don't gain the Senate.
'Trump was right' (on this)
The Democrats might not have the votes to convict but politically it might be helpful for them if the GOP vote to clear Trump.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/01/07/betting-on-the-year-of-trumps-impeachment/
The trick is to have comprehensive coverage written by people who know what they are talking about.
Last summer The Sunday Telegraph wrote on their front page about a stalking horse challenge to topple Mrs May and that many MPs were backing it.
Under the Tory rules since 1997 there's no longer an option of a stalking horse challenge, it is a simple vote of confidence.
There's a Mercedes F1 shop opened there.
You can buy merchandise, and for free you can also sit in an actual F1 car and drive it.*
*Well it is hooked up to a screen and you can drive it at several circuits by moving the steering wheel and the pedals.
It is fun.