politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For all TMay’s travails she continues to have a clear lead ove
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For all TMay’s travails she continues to have a clear lead over Corbyn as “best PM”
Back in June, after Corbyn’s LAB got 4 seats closer to the Tory MP total than Gordon Brown’s party seven years earlier, there was a massive euphoria around the Labour leader. He could do no wrong and was reported to have said he expected to be PM by last Christmas. That, of course, didn’t happen and he then revised that to Christmas 2018.
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And maintaining a precarious lead over don't know.0 -
But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
Did the BES polling a few weeks ago not confirm that people thought Labour had the "best policies" at last year's election, and that the party leaders was the only aspect that put the Tories in front?0 -
I don't see anyone who could be worse. At the very least the next leader will bother to turn up to the TV debates.Danny565 said:But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
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Who precisely do you think would be better, and why, apart from Davidson (and perhaps Boris, who to be fair is a complete wildcard who could go either way).Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see anyone who could be worse. At the very least the next leader will bother to turn up to the TV debates.Danny565 said:But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.0 -
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A month old poll, or a typo?Scott_P said:0 -
Absolutely anyone who bothers to campaign, bothers to turn up to the debates, bothers to look like they want to speak to voters, bothers to look like they're even bothered ...Danny565 said:
Who precisely do you think would be better, and why, apart from Davidson (and perhaps Boris, who to be fair is a complete wildcard who could go either way).Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see anyone who could be worse. At the very least the next leader will bother to turn up to the TV debates.Danny565 said:But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
... anyone who does any of that will be better than May. Which is basically anyone.
Its not just as if skipping the debates was the only mistake. May's mistake was total and overwhelming hubris. What positive story did she have to tell in the manifesto?0 -
Typo.Mortimer said:
A month old poll, or a typo?Scott_P said:
'ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,030 adults aged 18+ on 2 to 4 March 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.' - Guardian liveblog.0 -
So "hangers-on refuse free tickets" then.Scott_P said:0 -
Change is Not Coming?Scott_P said:0 -
Ta!Rhubarb said:
Typo.Mortimer said:
A month old poll, or a typo?Scott_P said:
'ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,030 adults aged 18+ on 2 to 4 March 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.' - Guardian liveblog.
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Such as who specifically....?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely anyone who bothers to campaign, bothers to turn up to the debates, bothers to look like they want to speak to voters, bothers to look like they're even bothered ...Danny565 said:
Who precisely do you think would be better, and why, apart from Davidson (and perhaps Boris, who to be fair is a complete wildcard who could go either way).Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see anyone who could be worse. At the very least the next leader will bother to turn up to the TV debates.Danny565 said:But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
... anyone who does any of that will be better than May. Which is basically anyone.
This reminds me a lot of Labour between 2007 and 2015. When Gordon Brown was in, we heard that "anyone" would be better than him, until Ed Miliband showed that wasn't the case. Then during Miliband's time, we heard that "anyone" would be better than him, until the selection of "moderate" candidates in the 2015 contest showed that also wasn't the case. It's very easy to just rubbish the incumbent and think "anyone" would do better, but often rather harder to think of someone specifically.
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It's not now Labour need be worried about. It's a year's time. That's when oppositions that are going to win move ahead, at latest.0
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@rachelkennedy84: Defence Science and Technlogy Labs at Porton Down in Wiltshire confirm they're testing samples of the substance thought to have made #SergeiSkripal and daughter critically ill. Not confirmed what substance is #Salisbury0
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Good afternoon, everyone.
I'd call that small rather than clear, but there we are.0 -
For one's own sanity the words "Best PM" and "Jeremy Corbyn" should never be uttered together.BannedInParis said:
Its the same principle as never mentioning "Gordon Brown" and "economic genius" in the same sentence.
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I'm firmly of the opinion that May stays until an obvious successor emerges. At the moment, that person hasn't emerged.Danny565 said:
Such as who specifically....?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely anyone who bothers to campaign, bothers to turn up to the debates, bothers to look like they want to speak to voters, bothers to look like they're even bothered ...Danny565 said:
Who precisely do you think would be better, and why, apart from Davidson (and perhaps Boris, who to be fair is a complete wildcard who could go either way).Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see anyone who could be worse. At the very least the next leader will bother to turn up to the TV debates.Danny565 said:But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
... anyone who does any of that will be better than May. Which is basically anyone.
This reminds me a lot of Labour between 2007 and 2015. When Gordon Brown was in, we heard that "anyone" would be better than him, until Ed Miliband showed that wasn't the case. Then during Miliband's time, we heard that "anyone" would be better than him, until the selection of "moderate" candidates in the 2015 contest showed that also wasn't the case. It's very easy to just rubbish the incumbent and think "anyone" would do better, but often rather harder to think of someone specifically.0 -
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
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A 6% lead over Jeremy Corbyn, by far the most unqualified and inept politician put forward by any major party since I really can't remember when? Who were they canvassing, Labour MPs?0
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May doesn't like to be put on the spot when she needs to go beyond her usual script. Yesterday when she was answering questions about the Irish border there was a hint of the "nothing has changed" tetchiness.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).0 -
No, Corbyn would have got much worse ratings if they'd asked Labour MPs.DavidL said:A 6% lead over Jeremy Corbyn, by far the most unqualified and inept politician put forward by any major party since I really can't remember when? Who were they canvassing, Labour MPs?
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Danny565 said:
But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
Presumably her new approach will be to bake a better cake, eat it and still have it.0 -
F1: Tatiana Calderon named as Sauber's test driver this year. She's a Colombian... not sure if we've ever had a Colombian race driver before, though. Wouldn't be surprising.0
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And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).0 -
A year ago she had a 34% lead over Corbyn.
She really did shit the bed.
In the run up to the 2015 general election Dave had a 15% lead over Ed which is even more impressive when it wasn’t a binary choice question.0 -
The memories of Tory MPs won’t fade though.0
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The 1% Tory lead is down from a 16% lead in the ICM poll this week last year
(Interestingly though, the Tories are only down 1 point from the 44% they got this time last year - it's Labour massively up from 28% that's made the difference.)0 -
Mr. Eagles, absolutely. It was a masterclass in ****ing up a seemingly un****upable position. At least at Cannae the Romans were facing a military genius. May was defeated by her own ambush.0
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Juan Pablo Montoya. he won 7 GP, but was a little (ahem) tetchy with his teams. Like him more since he left F1 and went racing in the US than I did before.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Tatiana Calderon named as Sauber's test driver this year. She's a Colombian... not sure if we've ever had a Colombian race driver before, though. Wouldn't be surprising.
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Yes. At the last minute.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
If she had debated she would have been criticised for 'jumping when the LotO' said so.....not showing leadership by refusing to debate......doing what the man told her to and so on and so on......meanwhile she emerges from the BREXIT speeches ahead of Corbyn and his cunning stunt.....0 -
In the piece I’m doing for Sunday I compare Mrs May to Basil II except she blinded her own side.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, absolutely. It was a masterclass in ****ing up a seemingly un****upable position. At least at Cannae the Romans were facing a military genius. May was defeated by her own ambush.
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Jose Mourinho a pound shop Jeremy Corbyn ?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/2018/mar/06/jose-mourinho-joins-rt-as-world-cup-pundit0 -
And calling the election wasn't a cynical u-turn?oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).0 -
I've just seen a feature on TV about Theresa May:
"Pro Performance"
"New Style, New Swagger"
Impressive!
Ah, sorry no - my mistake. It wasn't Theresa May, it was an ad for TRESemme.0 -
Again poor tactics, Cameron initially said no but they continue to negotiate until they got to a format that was very low risk. Shame he wasn’t as crafty with the EU.CarlottaVance said:
Yes. At the last minute.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
If she had debated she would have been criticised for 'jumping when the LotO' said so.....not showing leadership by refusing to debate......doing what the man told her to and so on and so on......meanwhile she emerges from the BREXIT speeches ahead of Corbyn and his cunning stunt.....0 -
This is a pretty short wiki list. One of the three didn't get a licence in time, so never actually raced in anger.JosiasJessop said:
Juan Pablo Montoya. he won 7 GP, but was a little (ahem) tetchy with his teams. Like him more since he left F1 and went racing in the US than I did before.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Tatiana Calderon named as Sauber's test driver this year. She's a Colombian... not sure if we've ever had a Colombian race driver before, though. Wouldn't be surprising.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_One_drivers_from_Colombia0 -
I can only hope your day job is tolerable.SandyRentool said:I've just seen a feature on TV about Theresa May:
"Pro Performance"
"New Style, New Swagger"
Impressive!
Ah, sorry no - my mistake. It wasn't Theresa May, it was an ad for TRESemme.0 -
It was an attempt to use very favourable polling data as a way to deal with a difficult set of negotiations. Yes, it failed and failed badly. But if it weren't for the FTPA, it would just have been part of the cut and thrust of normal politics. Seeking a mandate, blah blah blahmidwinter said:
And calling the election wasn't a cynical u-turn?oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Any PM looking at that data would have been tempted to do the same thing - particularly when the road ahead was looking so difficult to navigate.
Was it cynical? maybe. Was it understandable under the circumstances? yes. Did it work? Obviously not.0 -
F1: was a hydraulic pressure for Vandoorne's latest stoppage.0
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Mr. Jessop, ah, I didn't know Montoya was from there. Bit of a blind spot
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The FTPA is a red herring.oxfordsimon said:
It was an attempt to use very favourable polling data as a way to deal with a difficult set of negotiations. Yes, it failed and failed badly. But if it weren't for the FTPA, it would just have been part of the cut and thrust of normal politics. Seeking a mandate, blah blah blahmidwinter said:
And calling the election wasn't a cynical u-turn?oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Any PM looking at that data would have been tempted to do the same thing - particularly when the road ahead was looking so difficult to navigate.
Was it cynical? maybe. Was it understandable under the circumstances? yes. Did it work? Obviously not.
Mrs May should remember what happened to the last mandateless PM who promised no snap election then ruined their reputation when they came close to calling a snap election.
I don’t think this has been shared on PB before but this is what one of Gordon Brown’s ministers wrote at the time.
https://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
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Lock him up!Scott_P said:0 -
Can’t image that our security services would be too enamoured with a whole bunch of VIPs going to Russia anyway. They’re going to have enough trouble with keeping all the fans safe.SandyRentool said:
So "hangers-on refuse free tickets" then.Scott_P said:0 -
That’s a few integration issues they’ve had now with the Renault. Hopefully just teething problems, the factory team and RB seem to be okay from a reliability standpoint.Morris_Dancer said:F1: was a hydraulic pressure for Vandoorne's latest stoppage.
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I mentioned her as the most promising female driver around last year. Got a couple of points finishes in GP3. Probably not really good enough for an F1 test drive, but has money and there’s a marketing upside of running a woman driver.Morris_Dancer said:F1: Tatiana Calderon named as Sauber's test driver this year. She's a Colombian... not sure if we've ever had a Colombian race driver before, though. Wouldn't be surprising.
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As long as the Tories don't lose their heads, her replacement willl come in after Brexit has been finalised and won't have as many Remainers holding a grudge against him or her. They can also have someone younger and more dynamic seeming vs Corbyn.Danny565 said:But May is apparently going to be ditched before the next election, in favour of someone who is either no better than her, or quite possibly even worse (unless they can get Ruth Davidson eligible somehow).
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Mr. Sandpit, Verstappen just stopped 10 minutes ago 0
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Trump could help him out even though "Donald Trump has fallen 222 places on the Forbes annual Rich List"TheScreamingEagles said:
Lock him up!Scott_P said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-433028640 -
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.0 -
LOL, spoke to soon!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, Verstappen just stopped 10 minutes ago
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So,
We seem to have an attempted assassination on British soil by the Russians, and are on the eve of a trade war with the Americans.
“I’m just going outside the EU. I may be some time.”0 -
What tosh! Of course she could have changed her schedule and attended. I suspect two things prevented her: 1. She's just no good at that thinking-on-your-feet sort of thing. 2. It sould have looked like she was dancing to Corbyn's tune.Sandpit said:
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.0 -
Those three 50s are worth a pint.Scott_P said:0 -
The preparation point is valid though.Benpointer said:
What tosh! Of course she could have changed her schedule and attended. I suspect two things prevented her: 1. She's just no good at that thinking-on-your-feet sort of thing. 2. It sould have looked like she was dancing to Corbyn's tune.Sandpit said:
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.0 -
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Guido spinning for Boris
https://order-order.com/2018/03/06/no-boris-didnt-say-england-might-pull-world-cup/0 -
Three 50/1s = 16/1. His re-election is about 2/1. So you're essentially taking around 5/1 that he goes during (most of) his second term, having been popular enough to be re-elected (possibly having already seen off impeachment?). It's probably fair enough, but not screaming value.Sandpit said:
Those three 50s are worth a pint.Scott_P said:0 -
@Andrew_Adonis: I have tabled amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill to stop repeal of 2011 European Union Act, which requires referendums on EU treaty changes. Lawyers think 2011 Act may require referendum on Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty, which is why HMG trying to repeal it without anyone noticing!0
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The debate was in Cambridge, and from memory the PM was in the West Country when Corbyn announced he would be there. She’d have needed a military helicopter to have made it, obviously hadn’t prepared for the debate, and as you say would have been seen as dancing to Corbyn’s tune. Those who protect her might have had something to say about it too.Benpointer said:
What tosh! Of course she could have changed her schedule and attended. I suspect two things prevented her: 1. She's just no good at that thinking-on-your-feet sort of thing. 2. It sould have looked like she was dancing to Corbyn's tune.Sandpit said:
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.0 -
MaybeSandpit said:
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.
But his recent u-turn was ineffective. If he had got it right and delivered something of substance, then he could have changed the dynamic. But in the end, he came out with an empty soundbite that no-one could really explain or understand.0 -
1. If she had just agreed to attend in the first place then she wouldn't have had a problem.Sandpit said:
The debate was in Cambridge, and from memory the PM was in the West Country when Corbyn announced he would be there. She’d have needed a military helicopter to have made it, obviously hadn’t prepared for the debate, and as you say would have been seen as dancing to Corbyn’s tune. Those who protect her might have had something to say about it too.Benpointer said:
What tosh! Of course she could have changed her schedule and attended. I suspect two things prevented her: 1. She's just no good at that thinking-on-your-feet sort of thing. 2. It sould have looked like she was dancing to Corbyn's tune.Sandpit said:
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.
2. If her team hadn't considered Jezza deciding to attend and then what to do they deserve to be sacked.
(2 may contain some irony)0 -
The man is utterly deluded.Scott_P said:@Andrew_Adonis: I have tabled amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill to stop repeal of 2011 European Union Act, which requires referendums on EU treaty changes. Lawyers think 2011 Act may require referendum on Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty, which is why HMG trying to repeal it without anyone noticing!
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And this is news in some obscure universe where Ellesmere Port hasn't had a history of immanent closure threats from GM, I suppose.Scott_P said:
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A bit insulting to the deluded.oxfordsimon said:
The man is utterly deluded.Scott_P said:@Andrew_Adonis: I have tabled amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill to stop repeal of 2011 European Union Act, which requires referendums on EU treaty changes. Lawyers think 2011 Act may require referendum on Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty, which is why HMG trying to repeal it without anyone noticing!
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Wait, isn't Parliament fully sovereign?oxfordsimon said:
The man is utterly deluded.Scott_P said:@Andrew_Adonis: I have tabled amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill to stop repeal of 2011 European Union Act, which requires referendums on EU treaty changes. Lawyers think 2011 Act may require referendum on Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty, which is why HMG trying to repeal it without anyone noticing!
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The Belgians get started on Selmeyrgate:
https://www.lecho.be/economie-politique/europe-general/L-affaire-Selmayr-affaiblit-la-Commission-europeenne/9988180
https://tinyurl.com/y9swszco0 -
I’ve played the markets on him leaving early quite well, and have a feeling that with his tax plans in effect he’ll have a good shot at re-election. There’s the risk of him resigning due to health or boredom, or getting primaried though. 16s are not massive value but probably still reasonable bets for beer money.Tissue_Price said:
Three 50/1s = 16/1. His re-election is about 2/1. So you're essentially taking around 5/1 that he goes during (most of) his second term, having been popular enough to be re-elected (possibly having already seen off impeachment?). It's probably fair enough, but not screaming value.Sandpit said:
Those three 50s are worth a pint.Scott_P said:0 -
Given his age by then, what would be the actuarial probability, I wonder.Tissue_Price said:
Three 50/1s = 16/1. His re-election is about 2/1. So you're essentially taking around 5/1 that he goes during (most of) his second term, having been popular enough to be re-elected (possibly having already seen off impeachment?). It's probably fair enough, but not screaming value.Sandpit said:
Those three 50s are worth a pint.Scott_P said:
EDIT: about 8% chance he's going to kark it in those three years, according to US Social Security life table.0 -
Not a good time to put an anti-Western activist as PM.Gardenwalker said:So,
We seem to have an attempted assassination on British soil by the Russians, and are on the eve of a trade war with the Americans.
“I’m just going outside the EU. I may be some time.”0 -
Yes it's a concern. He should realise the purpose of repealing the 2011 Act is so that our re-accession and adoption of the Euro can be done without a referendum.oxfordsimon said:
The man is utterly deluded.Scott_P said:@Andrew_Adonis: I have tabled amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill to stop repeal of 2011 European Union Act, which requires referendums on EU treaty changes. Lawyers think 2011 Act may require referendum on Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty, which is why HMG trying to repeal it without anyone noticing!
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I've said before he reminds me of James Chapman - remember him?oxfordsimon said:
The man is utterly deluded.Scott_P said:@Andrew_Adonis: I have tabled amendment to EU Withdrawal Bill to stop repeal of 2011 European Union Act, which requires referendums on EU treaty changes. Lawyers think 2011 Act may require referendum on Mrs May’s withdrawal treaty, which is why HMG trying to repeal it without anyone noticing!
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For the time being his position is safe. Our best hope is that Theresa May can hold it all together and make all the negative forces cancel each other out.Elliot said:
Not a good time to put an anti-Western activist as PM.Gardenwalker said:So,
We seem to have an attempted assassination on British soil by the Russians, and are on the eve of a trade war with the Americans.
“I’m just going outside the EU. I may be some time.”0 -
Even worse, a pound shop Alex Salmond.TheScreamingEagles said:Jose Mourinho a pound shop Jeremy Corbyn ?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/football/2018/mar/06/jose-mourinho-joins-rt-as-world-cup-pundit0 -
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TND reposted the above tweet:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/9710566331315527690 -
Scott forced him to leave - made it quite clear he would be put to sleep if he stayedGardenwalker said:So,
We seem to have an attempted assassination on British soil by the Russians, and are on the eve of a trade war with the Americans.
“I’m just going outside the EU. I may be some time.”0 -
Like Dennis Hopper and the Russian Dynamite Death Chair Act. Which is a thing which actually happened, to my ongoing surprise.williamglenn said:
For the time being his position is safe. Our best hope is that Theresa May can hold it all together and make all the negative forces cancel each other out.Elliot said:
Not a good time to put an anti-Western activist as PM.Gardenwalker said:So,
We seem to have an attempted assassination on British soil by the Russians, and are on the eve of a trade war with the Americans.
“I’m just going outside the EU. I may be some time.”
Description (video broken): https://dangerousminds.net/comments/dennis_hopper_and_his
Video: http://video.houstonchronicle.com/Dennis-Hopper-performs-the-Russian-Dynamite-Death-Chair-Act-30871511
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I am sure @Scott_P wouldn't do such a thing.Charles said:
Scott forced him to leave - made it quite clear he would be put to sleep if he stayedGardenwalker said:So,
We seem to have an attempted assassination on British soil by the Russians, and are on the eve of a trade war with the Americans.
“I’m just going outside the EU. I may be some time.”0 -
I would question the statement that they are identical. The Tory proposal is that developers lose planning permission, Labour were talking about having the land seized.Yorkcity said:0 -
and where Vauxhall sales haven't nose dived over the past few years as people spend their £200 a month on a BMW / Audi lease insteadphiliph said:
And this is news in some obscure universe where Ellesmere Port hasn't had a history of immanent closure threats from GM, I suppose.Scott_P said:
Edit to add I fully expect the plant to be closed with Brexit blamed as Peugeot will close the easiest plant to close...0 -
The latest ICM poll for The Guardian suggests, in addition, that Corbyn's pledge on the Customs Union has been a tactical error.
That wont go down well with the legion of LD remainers on this site.0 -
Well, she was certainly well and truly outmanoeuvered. Rudd did ok though IIRC.Sandpit said:
The debate was in Cambridge, and from memory the PM was in the West Country when Corbyn announced he would be there. She’d have needed a military helicopter to have made it, obviously hadn’t prepared for the debate, and as you say would have been seen as dancing to Corbyn’s tune. Those who protect her might have had something to say about it too.Benpointer said:
What tosh! Of course she could have changed her schedule and attended. I suspect two things prevented her: 1. She's just no good at that thinking-on-your-feet sort of thing. 2. It sould have looked like she was dancing to Corbyn's tune.Sandpit said:
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.
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Corbyn is hekped by the fact we have a parliamentary and not presidential system.
For example if we had a presidential system Callaghan may have beaten Thatcher in 19790 -
Its rather weird to see your old local pub and a restaurant you’ve been in dozens of times in the news, having been closed by a Russian assassination attempt. Both would have been pretty busy on a Sunday afternoon, so the lack of any other members of the public being in hospital is a good sign.williamglenn said:
TND reposted the above tweet:williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/9710566331315527690 -
Agreed, she was completely outmanoeuvred. Rudd was OK, but the biggest talking point of the night was that the PM wasn’t there.Benpointer said:
Well, she was certainly well and truly outmanoeuvered. Rudd did ok though IIRC.Sandpit said:
The debate was in Cambridge, and from memory the PM was in the West Country when Corbyn announced he would be there. She’d have needed a military helicopter to have made it, obviously hadn’t prepared for the debate, and as you say would have been seen as dancing to Corbyn’s tune. Those who protect her might have had something to say about it too.Benpointer said:
What tosh! Of course she could have changed her schedule and attended. I suspect two things prevented her: 1. She's just no good at that thinking-on-your-feet sort of thing. 2. It sould have looked like she was dancing to Corbyn's tune.Sandpit said:
Cynical but effective.oxfordsimon said:
And we have to remember that Corbyn did one of his cynical u-turns after first saying that he wouldn't attend a debate without May and then saying he would.rkrkrk said:
Yes - there's no way of knowing really.Danny565 said:
Also, I'm not entirely sure May skipping the debates was as much of a mistake as people say. Yes, it made her look chicken, but that's arguably better than her actually taking part in the debates, having a car-crash, and providing all sorts of "viral" clips that would've damaged her.
A disastrous performance would surely have been worse than simply not showing up.
At the time - she was so far ahead I can totally understand the logic (even if I hate the decision on a principles basis).
Labour didn’t name their attendee until after the Tories named Rudd a couple of days out, then announced with about four hours to go that it would be Corbyn. By that time the PM was miles away and wouldn’t have had time to get back and prepare. Unlike the LotO, the PM can’t change her schedule at short notice without a whole pile of hassle.0 -
Peter Kellner on the Irish Border question. Admirably clear, and with data on the oft-cited Norway-Sweden and US-Canada borders (both of which are a long way from being frictionless).
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/irish-hard-border-soft-brexit-technology-theresa-may-a8242461.html
"But what is clear is that the “Smart Border 2.0” proposals do involve physical infrastructure and border guards."0
