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Even in France the likes of Hamon and Melenchon have been sympathetic to a UBI and it is being pioneered in Finland by the centre right government. Unless and until automation sees only a minority in permanent paid employment it is unlikely to take off on a wide scale but if that does become the case it will likely be inevitable, probably funded by a robot tax or something similarFrancisUrquhart said:
But unlike the UK, Italy remains highly unreformed, so can least afford to entertain the idea of supporting something like UBI. France under Macron has recognized they have to get their shit together.HYUFD said:
If we move more and more to AI/high tech/globalized world such populist policies will become the norm in most developed countries as voters have nothing to lose, if for most people beyond those with the highest tech skills and most creativity the jobs on offer are insecure and temporary what do they have to lose from seeking a guaranteed minimum universal income whether in employment or not?FrancisUrquhart said:
There is clearly a significant proportion of the population that isn't willing to accept reality. Not sure how long that will remain feasible as move more and more to AI / high tech / globalized world, I always fear Italy becoming another Greece.dixiedean said:Blimey! Just been looking at the promises made by LN FI and 5 Star.
Cut retirement age, double pensions and a miimum income of 1000 Euro a month amongst others.
Cue outrage from those who thought the Labour Manifesto was extreme.0 -
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5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.Foxy said:The 5 star movement does seem to now have a fairly mainstream manifesto:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-programme-with-no-euro-referendum-idUKKBN1FB1LG0 -
I didn't say it was a right / left issue. My point was that in order to be in a position to be able to afford to offer something like that (which is hugely expensive) you need an economy that can support it in the future.dixiedean said:
UBI may have to come though, for reasons you alluded to earlier. It is also not necessarily a Left issue. Milton Friedman was a proponent.FrancisUrquhart said:
But unlike the UK, Italy remains highly unreformed, so can least afford to entertain the idea of supporting something like UBI. France under Macron has recognized they have to get their shit together.HYUFD said:
If we move more and more to AI/high tech/globalized world such populist policies will become the norm in most developed countries as voters have nothing to lose, if for most people beyond those with the highest tech skills and most creativity the jobs on offer are insecure and temporary what do they have to lose from seeking a guaranteed minimum universal income whether in employment or not?FrancisUrquhart said:
There is clearly a significant proportion of the population that isn't willing to accept reality. Not sure how long that will remain feasible as move more and more to AI / high tech / globalized world, I always fear Italy becoming another Greece.dixiedean said:Blimey! Just been looking at the promises made by LN FI and 5 Star.
Cut retirement age, double pensions and a miimum income of 1000 Euro a month amongst others.
Cue outrage from those who thought the Labour Manifesto was extreme.
The likes of the UK might be able to, due to large financial and high tech sector, and very flexible working conditions *. Italy can't.
* Presuming luddite Corbyn doesn't get in and kill the city, halt self-driving train / car development etc etc etc.0 -
The only day of the year where one can say Rog is (more then likely) right...stjohn said:Where are Oscar’s Roger Tips?
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Talking about AI / high tech future...totally O/T....the documentary on AlphaGO on Netflix is very interesting.
A British company (alright a British company owned by Google) leading the world.0 -
It does seem as if it is the left and right populists prospering and centre shrinking. Much like our election, and that worked out well so you can see why they wanted to copy it!dixiedean said:
5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.Foxy said:The 5 star movement does seem to now have a fairly mainstream manifesto:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-programme-with-no-euro-referendum-idUKKBN1FB1LG
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/970424747866710017?s=190 -
Best links to follow the Italian results:
Official results site
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
or if you want a map:
Corriere della sera
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/camera.shtml
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Senate count first.
first 6 polling stations have been uploaded on Ministry website
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/senato/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniSI0 -
Drastic reduction in business taxes - good to see them endorsing conservative policiesFoxy said:The 5 star movement does seem to now have a fairly mainstream manifesto:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-programme-with-no-euro-referendum-idUKKBN1FB1LG0 -
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Sorry, some confusion here. Was replying (or intending to) to HYUFD.FrancisUrquhart said:
I didn't say it was a right / left issue. My point was that in order to be in a position to be able to afford to offer something like that (which is hugely expensive) you need an economy that can support it in the future.dixiedean said:
UBI may have to come though, for reasons you alluded to earlier. It is also not necessarily a Left issue. Milton Friedman was a proponent.FrancisUrquhart said:
But unlike the UK, Italy remains highly unreformed, so can least afford to entertain the idea of supporting something like UBI. France under Macron has recognized they have to get their shit together.HYUFD said:
If we move more and more to AI/high tech/globalized world such populist policies will become the norm in most developed countries as voters have nothing to lose, if for most people beyond those with the highest tech skills and most creativity the jobs on offer are insecure and temporary what do they have to lose from seeking a guaranteed minimum universal income whether in employment or not?FrancisUrquhart said:
There is clearly a significant proportion of the population that isn't willing to accept reality. Not sure how long that will remain feasible as move more and more to AI / high tech / globalized world, I always fear Italy becoming another Greece.dixiedean said:Blimey! Just been looking at the promises made by LN FI and 5 Star.
Cut retirement age, double pensions and a miimum income of 1000 Euro a month amongst others.
Cue outrage from those who thought the Labour Manifesto was extreme.
The likes of the UK might be able to, due to large financial and high tech sector, and very flexible working conditions *. Italy can't.
* Presuming luddite Corbyn doesn't get in and kill the city, halt self-driving train / car development etc etc etc.
Your point is, however, well-made.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.0 -
Do they update the exit poll as the real results come in? I think not, from previous elections.0
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Though, as ever, it is easier to be a prophet condemning the rulers, than it is to rule:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Drastic reduction in business taxes - good to see them endorsing conservative policiesFoxy said:The 5 star movement does seem to now have a fairly mainstream manifesto:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-programme-with-no-euro-referendum-idUKKBN1FB1LG
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/04/turin-five-star-movement-mayor-chiara-appendino0 -
A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI0 -
I do wonder about the dark side of "marginal gains". Sky made a thing about not doing drugs (i.e. not cheating), which is fine but they also made a thing about gaining every advantage wherever they could - so it's hardly surprising if they've gamed the rules.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.0 -
Depressing.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.0 -
So far Berlusconi's centre right coalition looks to be in front on 44% with 5* on 32% and the centre left coalition on 20%
www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/camera.shtml?refresh_ce-cp0 -
It's a total of 25 votes.AndyJS said:A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")0 -
The commentary on RAI website speculating that Lega may outpoll Forza within the centre right block - tctc. Not sure whether that would open door to Salvini though, as other blocs would be needed for a majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:0 -
First projection for La7 (12% of the sampled polling stations)
5 Stars 33.1
PD 18.7
Lega 17.3
Forza Italia 14.1
Brothers of Italy 4.2
Free and Equal 3.3
+Europa 2.60 -
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If that is the case either Salvini or Di Maio would likely end up PM.Pro_Rata said:
The commentary on RAI website speculating that Lega may outpoll Forza within the centre right block - tctc. Not sure whether that would open door to Salvini though, as other blocs would be needed for a majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
So far 5* is largest party on 31%, then Lega on 24%, then PD on 17%, then FI on 15%
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI0 -
It's stil very early results, only 0.1% counted for the Senate0
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Theresa May was quite good on Marr this morning I thought.
All of a sudden she's actually starting to look competent....
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The first results are almost only from the North, it explains the Lega's big lead over Forza Italia at the moment0
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Do they need to house THAT many spies?FrancisUrquhart said:North of the M25 is going to get a tad busier...
Five new garden towns could be built between Oxford and Cambridge bringing thousands of new homes
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5460799/Five-new-garden-towns-built-Oxford-Cambridge.html0 -
Sarkozy’s lost it.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/970410851781005312?s=210 -
A constituency vote counts for the PR section and vice versa. One can vote in either or both sections. The main difference in choice - if you vote constituency only for a bloc your vote is split between the parties in the bloc for the PR section, in proportion with what the PR voters in your bloc have done.Chris_from_Paris said:
It's a total of 25 votes.AndyJS said:A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")
You cannot vote for a different bloc in the constituency and PR sections, any such ballots are void. This means voting in the PR section only is identical in effect to voting in both sections.0 -
If Italy was just the northern part it would be more like Switzerland - seems that applies to counting votes too.Chris_from_Paris said:The first results are almost only from the North, it explains the Lega's big lead over Forza Italia at the moment
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Italy doesn’t have much history of electing left-wing governments, does it? The centre right and populist right (Berlusconi) have dominated for decades as far as I can tell. Politically speaking its probably the least understood of any of the major European countries from a British perspective - and that is saying something!!Foxy said:
It does seem as if it is the left and right populists prospering and centre shrinking. Much like our election, and that worked out well so you can see why they wanted to copy it!dixiedean said:
5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.Foxy said:The 5 star movement does seem to now have a fairly mainstream manifesto:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-programme-with-no-euro-referendum-idUKKBN1FB1LG
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/970424747866710017?s=19
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Paul Johnson has already taken his knighthood off him?Scott_P said:0 -
I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.Pro_Rata said:
A constituency vote counts for the PR section and vice versa. One can vote in either or both sections. The main difference in choice - if you vote constituency only for a bloc your vote is split between the parties in the bloc for the PR section, in proportion with what the PR voters in your bloc have done.Chris_from_Paris said:
It's a total of 25 votes.AndyJS said:A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")
You cannot vote for a different bloc in the constituency and PR sections, any such ballots are void. This means voting in the PR section only is identical in effect to voting in both sections.0 -
I note that the Brothers of Italy are actually led by a woman - Giorgia Meloni. So much for sisterhood!AndreaParma_82 said:First projection for La7 (12% of the sampled polling stations)
5 Stars 33.1
PD 18.7
Lega 17.3
Forza Italia 14.1
Brothers of Italy 4.2
Free and Equal 3.3
+Europa 2.60 -
Well, looks like he's no longer one of those who thinks Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others that have been tried.williamglenn said:Sarkozy’s lost it.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/970410851781005312?s=21
It may well be true, of course, that lack of democracy does make things easier and is certainly not impossible for the people, on the whole, to still benefit, but he may be missing part of the point.
Centre-right (FI-EPP, LN-ENF, Fdl-*, NcI-*): 225-265HYUFD said:
Centre-left (PD-S&D, I-*, +E-*, CP-*)
God save us from the acronyms - at least our system mostly spares us that but for the basic types.0 -
Second projection for La7 (40% of the sampled polling stations) for Senate
5 Stars 33.6
PD 18.3
Lega 17.4
Forza Italia 14.1
Brothers of Italy 4.0
Free and Equal 3.3
+Europa 2.30 -
Five Star have often claimed they will not go into coalition, but it seems the mathematically simplest majority is Five Star-Liga.
Would be a weird Trumpite government, and certainly the Kremlin’s pick. Let’s see.0 -
It has tended to alternate between centre left and Forza Italia led Berlusconi right since the end of the Christian Democrats in the early 1990s. It was PM Berlusconi in 1994 then the centre left Dini and Prodi, D'Alema and Amato then Berlusconi again then Prodi again then Berlusconi a third time then the technocratic Modi followed by the centre left Letta, Renzi and Gentilioni and now it looks like Berlusconi is back again, at least as Kingmaker if not actual PMSouthamObserver said:
Italy doesn’t have much history of electing left-wing governments, does it? The centre right and populist right (Berlusconi) have dominated for decades as far as I can tell. Politically speaking its probably the least understood of any of the major European countries from a British perspective - and that is saying something!!Foxy said:
It does seem as if it is the left and right populists prospering and centre shrinking. Much like our election, and that worked out well so you can see why they wanted to copy it!dixiedean said:
5 Star seek to take votes from Left, Right and Centre. They are not so much a Populist Party, as anti-corruption and anti-business as usual.Foxy said:The 5 star movement does seem to now have a fairly mainstream manifesto:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-election-5star/italys-5-star-presents-election-programme-with-no-euro-referendum-idUKKBN1FB1LG
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/970424747866710017?s=190 -
Repulsive.williamglenn said:Sarkozy’s lost it.
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/970410851781005312?s=210 -
+ conservatives, I suspectElliot said:
The irony of European social democracy is that it has driven, through a constant search for the next minority issue, it's natural base towards the right.0 -
More than 120 K votes counted for the Senate (0.7% of polling stations)
Centre-right 39.3
M5S 30.4
Centre-left 22.9
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It is also pretty stupid to say Putin is not a populist. His whole thing is wrapping himself in the flag, promising to restore Russian greatness and demonising foreigners/the gays/America.0
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I could never understand how my fellow left wingers thought it a good idea to embrace identity politics. Encouraging working class people to divide themselves up into different identities rather than emphasising their commonality is nuts from an electoral coalition perspective.Mortimer said:
+ conservatives, I suspectElliot said:
The irony of European social democracy is that it has driven, through a constant search for the next minority issue, it's natural base towards the right.0 -
And how much grief would that cause in Brussels?Gardenwalker said:Five Star have often claimed they will not go into coalition, but it seems the mathematically simplest majority is Five Star-Liga.
Would be a weird Trumpite government, and certainly the Kremlin’s pick. Let’s see.0 -
I took a while to get my head round it, so did not pass up the opportunity to share. If you fancy explaining the various thresholds and how they interact with one another, be my guest though as my mind boggled a bit at that. Perhaps a slight seat boost to PD if some of their bloc partners fall below 1% but I wouldn't swear to that?Chris_from_Paris said:
I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.Pro_Rata said:
A constituency vote counts for the PR section and vice versa. One can vote in either or both sections. The main difference in choice - if you vote constituency only for a bloc your vote is split between the parties in the bloc for the PR section, in proportion with what the PR voters in your bloc have done.Chris_from_Paris said:
It's a total of 25 votes.AndyJS said:A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI
The first line mentioning 11 is the total of votes received by the candidates of thecentre-right coalition in the first past the post election. As can be seen in the final two lines, some people vote in the FPTP ("uninominale) but not the PR part ("proporzionale")
You cannot vote for a different bloc in the constituency and PR sections, any such ballots are void. This means voting in the PR section only is identical in effect to voting in both sections.0 -
Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.Elliot said:
While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.
So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.0 -
The bits before the "-" refer to the national party/list, the bits after the "-" refer to the European political party (or group in the European Parliament, there's an overlap) to which the national party/list is affiliated. Prior to Brexit you could describe UK elections in the same way, but it never caught on (it did in Ireland).kle4 said:
Centre-right (FI-EPP, LN-ENF, Fdl-*, NcI-*): 225-265
Centre-left (PD-S&D, I-*, +E-*, CP-*)
God save us from the acronyms - at least our system mostly spares us that but for the basic types.
Incidentally, does anybody know if the Labour Party will retain its membership of the Party of European Socialists post-Brexit?0 -
A Lega Nord Five star coalition would have a majority and be vaguely intellectually coherent. It would be the EUs worst nightmare though.Gardenwalker said:Five Star have often claimed they will not go into coalition, but it seems the mathematically simplest majority is Five Star-Liga.
Would be a weird Trumpite government, and certainly the Kremlin’s pick. Let’s see.
5 star continue to ally with UKIP in Brussels - although for 48 hours after the EU referendum Guy Verhofstadt persuaded Grillo to join the ALDE Lib Dem group. However the Liberal MEPs were not happy so this collapsed and they went back to the EFDD and UKIP.
Seems 5 star is anyone's - if the price is right.0 -
I thought EPP was unlikely to be a coincidence. Makes it better I suppose.viewcode said:
The bits before the "-" refer to the national party/list, the bits after the "-" refer to the European political party (or group in the European Parliament, there's an overlap) to which the national party/list is affiliated. Prior to Brexit you could describe UK elections in the same way, but it never caught on (it did in Ireland).kle4 said:God save us from the acronyms - at least our system mostly spares us that but for the basic types.
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Rai and Mediaset first projections (low coverage, 5-7%)
PD a bit better but still below 20% (Mediaset's projection have them just above it)
Lega a bit worse but still above FI0 -
Reads as lacking coherency even more than most parties or movements. Unpredictable, but then Italian politics looks like that generally from outside as viewed by a casual, infrequent observer.Gardenwalker said:Interesting primer on Five Star.
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/9686119897182658560 -
Russians like strong leaders - it suits their national psyche. Gorbachev was hated - because he was seen as weak and a sell out.Elliot said:It is also pretty stupid to say Putin is not a populist. His whole thing is wrapping himself in the flag, promising to restore Russian greatness and demonising foreigners/the gays/America.
Putin is a populist - but also popular with the majority of Russians.0 -
The '10 times better' party intrigues me. Wiki says their slogan is that Italy deserves to be 10 times better, so I suppose the name is not them saying they are 10 times better than any other party.0
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Once upon a time, so did Lance Armstrong.david_herdson said:
I do wonder about the dark side of "marginal gains". Sky made a thing about not doing drugs (i.e. not cheating) ......
Pretty much all elite sport is the same, but makes less attempt to catch the cheats than cycling does.
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TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.HYUFD said:
Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.Elliot said:
While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.
So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.0 -
They were also planning to change Italian citizenship laws to award citizenship to anyone born in Italy as opposed to needing to have an Italian citizen as a parent to be a Citizen. That is unlikely to have gone down well with working class voters.Elliot said:0 -
Pro_Rata said:
A boost seat for PD would be to have partners over 1% (thus counting for the total vote of coalitions) but under 3% (threshold to get PR seats).Chris_from_Paris said:
I took a while to get my head round it, so did not pass up the opportunity to share. If you fancy explaining the various thresholds and how they interact with one another, be my guest though as my mind boggled a bit at that. Perhaps a slight seat boost to PD if some of their bloc partners fall below 1% but I wouldn't swear to that?Pro_Rata said:
I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.Chris_from_Paris said:
s.AndyJS said:A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI0 -
Projection for Mediaset (50% coverage of sampled polling stations) for Senate
Pd: 18,7%
+Europa: 2,4%
FI: 14,2%
Lega: 16,0%
FdI: 4%
NcI: 1,2%
M5S: 32,8%
LeU: 3,6%
Projection for Rai (coverage 16%) for SSenate
Pd: 19,1%
+Europa: 2,5%
Altri Csx: 1,4%
FI: 14,5%
Lega: 16,0%
FdI: 4,2%
NcI: 1,3%
M5S: 32,2%
LeU: 3,5%0 -
Even in Denmark the Social Democrats are only polling just under 29% and in Finland just 20% (a fraction behind the governing centre right KOK)NickPalmer said:
TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.HYUFD said:
Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.Elliot said:
While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.
So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2019
If the best the social democrats can do in Europe is under a third of the vote it does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the future of social democracy on the continent0 -
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Chris_from_Paris said:
Thanks.Pro_Rata said:
A boost seat for PD would be to have partners over 1% (thus counting for the total vote of coalitions) but under 3% (threshold to get PR seats).Chris_from_Paris said:
I took a while to get my head round it, so did not pass up the opportunity to share. If you fancy explaining the various thresholds and how they interact with one another, be my guest though as my mind boggled a bit at that. Perhaps a slight seat boost to PD if some of their bloc partners fall below 1% but I wouldn't swear to that?Pro_Rata said:
I know, I was trying to explain the display of results in the Italian government site. I'm not sure everyone is very familiar with the intricacies of the Rosatellum.Chris_from_Paris said:
s.AndyJS said:A grand total of 11 votes counted for the lower house, unless 11 refers to candidates.
http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI0 -
Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/9704513736817909780 -
The EU under threat from West, South and EastHYUFD said:0 -
La7 projection for Senate (60% coverage)
Centre right 37.4
5 Stars 32.3
Centre left 22.9 (PD up at 18.9%)
Free and Equal 3.3%
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I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.0
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Good for AfD, bad for Germany.CarlottaVance said:Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/9704513736817909780 -
Good luck: it's certainly value.stjohn said:I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.
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The M5S seems to be doing incredibly well in the South. They will win a lot of uninominal seats there/AndreaParma_82 said:La7 projection for Senate (60% coverage)
Centre right 37.4
5 Stars 32.3
Centre left 22.9 (PD up at 18.9%)
Free and Equal 3.3%0 -
Unbelievably, Trump thinks VAT is a protectionist measure against the US.CarlottaVance said:Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/09/26/trumps-advisers-claim-vat-is-a-trade-barrier-subsidy-flat-out-untrue-simply-wrong/0 -
Not that it did him any good, but the Good Lady Wifi voted for DDL at the BAFTAs......stjohn said:I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.
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I hope Lesley Manville wins Best Supporting Actress. She’s terrific in everything she does.stjohn said:I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.
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I think that tweet is a bit simplistic, tbh.HYUFD said:0 -
Get Out as Best Picture might be worth a dabble too.....stjohn said:I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.
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Bad for all of us if he starts a trade war. Stupid man.Rhubarb said:
Good for AfD, bad for Germany.CarlottaVance said:Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/9704513736817909780 -
LockCarlottaVance said:Hey ho....its off to (trade) war we go....
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/970451373681790978herhim up, Lockherhim up....0 -
Good Lady Wifi voted for her too - again, it did no good! Can't see past Allison Janney though.Cyclefree said:
I hope Lesley Manville wins Best Supporting Actress. She’s terrific in everything she does.stjohn said:I’ve just had £9 on Daniel Day Lewis to win Best Actor in the Oscars at average odd approx 75/1. Oldman should win it for his terrific Churchill portrayal but a lot of credit is due to the make up and his odd are ridiculous. I believe this is DDL’s swan song.
0 -
It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.
Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.0 -
These things tend to go in waves. By 2025 things could easily have gone full circle.HYUFD said:
Even in Denmark the Social Democrats are only polling just under 29% and in Finland just 20% (a fraction behind the governing centre right KOK)NickPalmer said:
TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.HYUFD said:
Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.Elliot said:
While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.
So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2019
If the best the social democrats can do in Europe is under a third of the vote it does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the future of social democracy on the continent
Free trade and free movement will not stop under more right-leaning governments, so if that's what some people care about, their drift to the right will be short-lived.0 -
What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?0
-
Icarus is an interesting documentary.Dura_Ace said:
It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.
Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.0 -
On the generally poor performance of left wing parties in Europe:
This is why I believed despite all the negative polling that Corbyn would perform better than a more centrist Labour candidate, I just didn't think that had enough popular appeal left in the country.
Not sure the pro Brexit aspect alone really explains it.0 -
The richest teams have access to the most sophisticate (and most difficult to unmask) methods of cheating. It has always been the case.Dura_Ace said:
It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.
Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
It is still quite unfair to think of cycling as the only doping-plagued sport. For example Italian and Spanish football teams have been spared by very conciliatory local judges over the years...0 -
It won't stop completely but it will reduce but even the alternative to right wing populism is either liberal centrists like Macron and Rivera or populist socialists like Corbyn and Melenchon not social democrats as suchDadge said:
These things tend to go in waves. By 2025 things could easily have gone full circle.HYUFD said:
Even in Denmark the Social Democrats are only polling just under 29% and in Finland just 20% (a fraction behind the governing centre right KOK)NickPalmer said:
TThat's a bit generalised - the Danish and Finnish social democrat parties are both polling well (in Denmark the anti-immigrant People's Pary is losing ground, and in Finland the True Finns have split and left the government). Generally true, though.HYUFD said:
Ironically the only traditional centre left party in Europe still polling well is the British Labour Party, ironically because its leader despite being a traditional socialist backs leaving the EU and ending free movement.Elliot said:
While the only centre left leader in power after tonight of the main European nations (France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain) will be Macron in France who is basically more Blairite, Cleggite economic centrist than he is social democrat.
So it seems social democracy is dead in Europe for the moment, either the left goes full leftwing populist like Corbyn and Melenchon or centrist liberal like Macron and Rivera in Spain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_parliamentary_election,_2019
If the best the social democrats can do in Europe is under a third of the vote it does not inspire a great deal of confidence in the future of social democracy on the continent
Free trade and free movement will not stop under more right-leaning governments, so if that's what some people care about, their drift to the right will be short-lived.0 -
Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)FrancisUrquhart said:
Icarus is an interesting documentary.Dura_Ace said:
It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.
Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.0 -
What happens if you buy it off some dodgy Chinese ebay seller ;-)MarqueeMark said:
Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)FrancisUrquhart said:
Icarus is an interesting documentary.Dura_Ace said:
It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.
Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.0 -
Or get sent it as a BAFTA screener!FrancisUrquhart said:
What happens if you buy it off some dodgy Chinese ebay seller ;-)MarqueeMark said:
Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)FrancisUrquhart said:
Icarus is an interesting documentary.Dura_Ace said:
It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.
Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.0 -
I know, just yanking your chain.MarqueeMark said:
Or get sent it as a BAFTA screener!FrancisUrquhart said:
What happens if you buy it off some dodgy Chinese ebay seller ;-)MarqueeMark said:
Glad you enjoyed it. Been banging on about it for weeks now! (Although it is spelt Ikarus...)FrancisUrquhart said:
Icarus is an interesting documentary.Dura_Ace said:
It's absolutely rampant at every level of cycling. Even at my local club rides there are people (men and women) taking huge doses of tylenol and caffeine to chase Strava segments. A bit further up the scale at amateur events clembuterol and testosterone obtained via the darkweb are ubiquitous.kyf_100 said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_cyclingScott_P said:
"The acceptance of drug-taking in the Tour de France was so complete by 1930 that the rule book, distributed by Henri Desgrange, reminded riders that drugs would not be provided by the organisers."
And little has changed. Honestly, you're probably more likely to find drugs at a gathering of cyclists than you are at a rave.
I don't know anybody who is knowledgeable about pro cycling who ever thought Sky were clean.
Doping is expected, tolerated, sanctioned and concealed in pro cycling. As well as all that, motodoping is the new quiet epidemic that the UCI are failing to control.
EDIT: Well it was on the screener I watched! But not anywhere else it seems.... IMDB has it as Icarus.0 -
http://www.corriere.it/elezioni-2018/risultati-politiche/senato.shtml
The map is starting to get colors.
Blue in the North, yellow in the South, not much red...0 -
Forza Italia and Lega have agreed that which ever party gets most votes will nominate the centre right's candidate for PM. At present Lega is ahead - by 4 per cent on the latest tally - so if that remains the case Salvini would presumably be the preferred candidate.AndyJS said:What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?
So quite possible - but the centre right doesn't have a majority so would presumably need the support of 5 star or at least their abstention.0 -
It would be interesting to see how the Labour coalition would break down in terms of support were the UK to have a PR system. In Spain, for example, PSOE and Podemos combined have a level of support similar to Labour's here. A couple of years ago, Podemos was outpolling PSOE, but now that has been reversed. My guess is that you might see a similar dynamic in the UK - but until we get a voting system that actually gives people a positive reason to vote for parties we are not going to know.TheJezziah said:On the generally poor performance of left wing parties in Europe:
This is why I believed despite all the negative polling that Corbyn would perform better than a more centrist Labour candidate, I just didn't think that had enough popular appeal left in the country.
Not sure the pro Brexit aspect alone really explains it.
0 -
Thanks.brendan16 said:
Forza Italia and Lega have agreed that which ever party gets most votes will nominate the centre right's candidate for PM. At present Lega is ahead so in that case Salvini would presumably be the preferred candidate.AndyJS said:What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?
So quite possible - but the centre right doesn't have a majority so would presumably need the support of 5 star or at least their abstention.0 -
The support of M5S to a PM form the Lega would be extremely unpopular in the South where they had their best results and probably almost all their MPs in FPTP seats.brendan16 said:
Forza Italia and Lega have agreed that which ever party gets most votes will nominate the centre right's candidate for PM. At present Lega is ahead - by 4 per cent on the latest tally - so if that remains the case Salvini would presumably be the preferred candidate.AndyJS said:What are the chances of Matteo Salvini becoming prime minister with the results so far?
So quite possible - but the centre right doesn't have a majority so would presumably need the support of 5 star or at least their abstention.0 -
Yeah I can agree with that, it probably plays a small part in how bitter our politics has become. It is one thing to lose an election but to feel like your views don't even get a go is incredibly dispiriting.SouthamObserver said:
It would be interesting to see how the Labour coalition would break down in terms of support were the UK to have a PR system. In Spain, for example, PSOE and Podemos combined have a level of support similar to Labour's here. A couple of years ago, Podemos was outpolling PSOE, but now that has been reversed. My guess is that you might see a similar dynamic in the UK - but until we get a voting system that actually gives people a positive reason to vote for parties we are not going to know.
I think it is also what hit the BBC as well, with them trying to balance things between parties you wouldn't end up with many Brexit advocates because, especially pre referendum, only UKIP really fully supported it and some Conservatives, unless the thing was specifically a Brexit debate where they generally do try to even things up but in general debates which include Brexit it can end up not well represented as they try to balance for other things.
Similarly for a while with Corbyn if you just had one Labour MP appearing it could well be someone critical of Corbyn, add in other guests mainly from other parties then who generally weren't big fans of Corbyn either. Or if you just had pundits discussing events/news they may have a Pro Labour panelist but that person could quite likely be someone anti Corbyn leaving a discussion where they are all have an interest in attacking Corbyn and not defending him.
This isn't to say any kind of political show should have a perfectly even representation of pro and anti Corbyn or Brexit but it is probably what led to a lot of people getting annoyed, I found myself watching less political stuff as a result. Happy to see my views criticised and opposing facts offered but it is nice to at least see someone also defending those views and offering the alternative/counter argument, otherwise at best you tune out at worst you get annoyed.
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This discussion has been closed.