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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Blow for LAB as YouGov finds Corbyn’s approach to Brexit getti

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  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    There was never any compulsion to make an either or choice.

    What is Ireland part of?
    Dunno. I’m not Irish. They can feel what they want, good luck to them.

    I know how I feel, and how the EU made me feel awkward in retrospect, as a member.

    I’d rather be a good neighbour than a surly lodger to quote Mr Salmond.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    malcolmg said:

    You set a very low bar Mark
    Roy Jenkins , James Callaghan, Merlyn Rees, Frank Soskice and Chuter Ede actually did ok in the post of Home Secretary!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    There was never any compulsion to make an either or choice.

    What is Ireland part of?
    Always been much closer to Spain , Italy and other popish enclaves.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    edited March 2018
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Our literature and painting have always been entirely distinct, we take architecture from them but make it our own.
    Really?

    Shakespeares plays were often set in Italy, Denmark, Greece or Rome. They are often rooted in older European stories, as were Chaucer's. Our Royal family is ethnically German, and our Puritan revolution and Non-Conformist churches in the writings of the Swiss Calvin. There are many further interactions and cultural hybridisations with mainland Europe. Ours is a distinct strand, but is most definitely part of a broader European tapestry. Both ourselves and the continent are culturally richer and better for it.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    AndyJS said:

    The seat at the top of the list is interesting.
    I'm thinking it won't be Scottish.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    The UK has always had one foot inside Europe, and one foot out. Always has, always will. So black and white arguments either which way don't work.

    But, that in-and-of-itself is sufficient to explain why a federal Europe (obviously) wasn't for us.
    The UK is half European, half Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I'm thinking it won't be Scottish.....
    Out of 632 seats, Bedford is number 1. Here's the spreadsheet:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11T6XLQh2ss-Ul9UjG8TzJCvhEFMp0VmsbR8KbSZ_FL0/edit#
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    The UK has always had one foot inside Europe, and one foot out. Always has, always will. So black and white arguments either which way don't work.

    But, that in-and-of-itself is sufficient to explain why a federal Europe (obviously) wasn't for us.
    All European countries are the same. They manage it fine.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Well surprise , surprise! Wake up time for PB political anoraks - support for Remain isn’t necessarily a one-way vote winner. Just possibly this might even have cost Corbyn the next election.

    And I write as someone who voted ‘remain’....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2018

    Question for people who feel more at home in the Anglosphere: What do you think makes us different from Australians or Canadians? Perhaps it's our Europeanness.

    Quebec in the case of Canada.

    Perhaps Quebec should join the EU and we could join NAFTA
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    justin124 said:

    Roy Jenkins , James Callaghan, Merlyn Rees, Frank Soskice and Chuter Ede actually did ok in the post of Home Secretary!
    No Tories there Justin.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited March 2018
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    He and Dave should have got on well.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Jonathan said:

    All European countries are the same. They manage it fine.
    Albania and Switzerland? Or within the EU Denmark and Bulgaria? Yup no difference there, none at all, peas in a pod.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    justin124 said:

    Roy Jenkins , James Callaghan, Merlyn Rees, Frank Soskice and Chuter Ede actually did ok in the post of Home Secretary!
    yes but he was talking about the recent ones who were indeed very dire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Cookie said:

    This is fascinating.
    I would say we in the UK have most in common with:
    1) the ROI
    2) NZ
    3) Aus
    4) Canada
    5) Some European countries - let's say Netherlands, Norway, Denmark
    6) USA
    7) Some other European countries - Germany, Sweden, Finalnd
    8) Some other European countries - France, Italy, Spain

    5, 6, 7 and 8are very fluid though.

    As to Spain - I'd expect a Spaniard would have more in common with a Portuguese than most, and indeed the two languages are fairly close. But I'd also say a Spaniard would have more in common with an Arggentine than a German. But I'm not a Spaniard - I'm only guessing.

    I offer this as my opinion, and I would be interested to know what others think. I genuinely think language is massively important - the more polyglotally inclined and those with connections in Europe will obviously feel different, and there is no right answer.
    We share a monarch with NZ, Aus and Canada unlike with the ROI
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    edited March 2018
    HYUFD said:

    The UK is half European, half Anglosphere (USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand)
    You could say the same of Potugal and the Lusosphere, France and the Francosphere, Ireland and its diaspora, Spain and Latin America, Greece and its diaspora, the Pan-Slavism of Eastern Europe.

    British exceptionalism is a myth.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Foxy said:

    Really?

    Shakespeares plays were often set in Italy, Denmark, Greece or Rome. They are often rooted in older European stories, as were Chaucer's. Our Royal family is ethnically German, and our Puritan revolution and Non-Conformist churches in the writings of the Swiss Calvin. There are many further interactions and cultural hybridisations with mainland Europe. Ours is a distinct strand, but is most definitely part of a broader European tapestry. Both ourselves and the continent are culturally richer and better for it.

    We have links with them, of course we do, but we have links with lots of places. Shakespeare isn't a brilliant example: if someone who can write a whole play set in Venice with not a single nod to the whole canal thing, we can take it it's just a name to him. Our religious setup owes a lot more to being anti-European than being pro. And so on.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TGOHF said:
    Did he ask for a double and Dave bought a single?
  • Jonathan said:

    He and Dave should have got on well.
    Dave resigned - Junckers should have gone too but at least his legacy is that he lost the UK for the EU
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Out of 632 seats, Bedford is number 1. Here's the spreadsheet:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11T6XLQh2ss-Ul9UjG8TzJCvhEFMp0VmsbR8KbSZ_FL0/edit#
    Yet Bedford went Labour and we still have a Tory PM

    So of the marginals on that list I give it to Mid Derbyshire, Tory 1992, Labour 1997-2010, Tory 2010 - and the 29th closest to the national swing in 2017
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    welshowl said:
    :lol:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    welshowl said:

    Albania and Switzerland? Or within the EU Denmark and Bulgaria? Yup no difference there, none at all, peas in a pod.
    The idea that the UK is unique in balancing European and Global interests is absurd. The idea that France ir Germany have been inhibited in their global ambitions by the EU doesn't match the facts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    HYUFD said:

    We share a monarch with NZ, Aus and Canada unlike with the ROI
    Though she has a German-Greek husband, and cousins all over the royal houses of Europe, albeit some deposed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Dave resigned - Junckers should have gone too but at least his legacy is that he lost the UK for the EU
    Omg we actually agree on something. Juncker should have gone.
  • Jonathan said:

    Omg we actually agree on something. Juncker should have gone.
    And why should we not agree from time to time
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Foxy said:

    You could say the same of Potugal and the Lusosphere, Spain and the Francosphere, Ireland and its diaspora, Spain and Latin America, Greece and its diaspora, the Pan-Slavism of Eastern Europe.

    British exceptionalism is a myth.
    Absolutely
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    edited March 2018
    Jonathan said:

    The idea that the UK is unique in balancing European and Global interests is absurd. The idea that France ir Germany have been inhibited in their global ambitions by the EU doesn't match the facts.
    The French hard-left Eurosceptic Jean-Luc Mélenchon says that France is not European or Western: it is universal, because it is present on 5 continents. As nuts as our Brexiteers.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    We share a monarch with NZ, Aus and Canada unlike with the ROI
    We share a monarch with Papua New Guinea too, but I don't think we or they would consider them to be very culturally akin with us.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Yet Bedford went Labour and we still have a Tory PM

    So of the marginals on that list I give it to Lincoln
    In the past Bedford has tended to be more Tory leaning than Lincoln. After a very narrow win in 1966 , Labour failed to win Bedford again until 1997. Lincoln fell to the Tories for the first time since World War 2 in 1979. Of course, boundary changes may have affected voting patterns in both seats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Yet Bedford went Labour and we still have a Tory PM

    So of the marginals on that list I give it to Mid Derbyshire, Tory 1992, Labour 1997-2010, Tory 2010 -
    Yes but that would be thinking in terms of traditional bellwethers, which is to say where the result itself is in line with the national result. I was trying to do something slightly different and focus on the swing, which means that if one of the seats at the top of the list is declared early at the next election it may be possible to have a good idea of what the overall swing is going to be if the seat remains a good indicator of swing (which isn't guaranteed of course).

    In other words, if Bedford declares early next time and it's a 1% swing to Labour, it may be a fairly good indicator that the national swing will be around 1% to Labour as well, even if the swing is, say, 3% to Labour or 1% to the Conservatives with all the seats declared at that time. It would be best of course to take a selection of the seats at the top of the list rather than just one or two.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Foxy said:

    Though she has a German-Greek husband, and cousins all over the royal houses of Europe, albeit some deposed.
    None she still is Head of State of
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    rpjs said:

    We share a monarch with Papua New Guinea too, but I don't think we or they would consider them to be very culturally akin with us.
    We share a monarch with Yorkshire despite massive cultural differences.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    rpjs said:

    We share a monarch with Papua New Guinea too, but I don't think we or they would consider them to be very culturally akin with us.
    True but most Australians, New Zealanders and Canadians (outside of Quebec) are of British origin
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    The French hard-left Eurosceptic Jean-Luc Mélenchon says that France is not European or Western: it is universal, because it is present on 5 continents. As nuts as our Brexiteers.
    Having been to Noumea in New Caledonia, he is not wrong. It is very French.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    justin124 said:

    In the past Bedford has tended to be more Tory leaning than Lincoln. After a very narrow win in 1966 , Labour failed to win Bedford again until 1997. Lincoln fell to the Tories for the first time since World War 2 in 1979. Of course, boundary changes may have affected voting patterns in both seats.
    Mid Derbyshire (and its predecessor Amber Valley) is more representative than both yes, so I changed it
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414

    I don't feel very different from either Australians or Canadians.
    Does that include Quebecois and Inuit?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    In the past Bedford has tended to be more Tory leaning than Lincoln. After a very narrow win in 1966 , Labour failed to win Bedford again until 1997. Lincoln fell to the Tories for the first time since World War 2 in 1979. Of course, boundary changes may have affected voting patterns in both seats.
    Lincoln is number 30 in the list which means it's also a pretty good indicator of swing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    AndyJS said:

    Yes but that would be thinking in terms of traditional bellwethers, which is to say where the result itself is in line with the national result. I was trying to do something slightly different and focus on the swing, which means that if one of the seats at the top of the list is declared early at the next election it may be possible to have a good idea of what the overall swing is going to be if the seat remains a good indicator of swing (which isn't guaranteed of course).

    In other words, if Bedford declares early next time and it's a 1% swing to Labour, it may be a fairly good indicator that the national swing will be around 1% to Labour as well, even if the swing is, say, 3% to Labour or 1% to the Conservatives with all the seats declared at that time. It would be best of course to take a selection of the seats at the top of the list rather than just one or two.
    Perhaps but a bellwether seat is surely one where you can say as goes 'x' so goes the nation alongside reflecting national swing?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited March 2018
    malcolmg said:



    You set a very low bar Mark

    Low bars can still be tricky, if we expect people to limbo under them rather than jump over them.
    Foxy said:


    You could say the same of Potugal and the Lusosphere, France and the Francosphere, Ireland and its diaspora, Spain and Latin America, Greece and its diaspora, the Pan-Slavism of Eastern Europe.

    British exceptionalism is a myth.

    National identities are all mere constructs, in the end, they are as real as peoples' perceptions. If sufficient people believe Britain does not culturally fit with in Europe, or that said fit does not require absolutely engagement in a political union, it is not a myth to say it therefore exists.

    Personally I have no issue accepting that parts of our culture are closer to mainland europeans than the anglosphere, and vice versa. Surely one of the points of the EU, except for fanatics, was that while we share values with one another it was a melting pot of myriad peoples and cultures which retain distinct identities. Indeed, that is a gripe some have, that they believe we did not need to leave to emphasise our distinctness. That may well be true, but nor does it make our believing in a distinctness false, since within or without we are supposed to be distinct. Other nations, when it suits them, will always point to their uniqueness on some point. In that regard we are all both alike and exceptional at the same time really.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Jonathan said:

    The idea that the UK is unique in balancing European and Global interests is absurd. The idea that France ir Germany have been inhibited in their global ambitions by the EU doesn't match the facts.
    Only to the extent that Germany doesn't have very extensive global ambitions due to its history. France is similar to us, and its politics are similarly fractious as ours. And that's with them having far more direction over EU policy than we ever did.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Jonathan said:

    Omg we actually agree on something. Juncker should have gone.
    Of course he should. But accountability is not a thing in the EU.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    Yes but that would be thinking in terms of traditional bellwethers, which is to say where the result itself is in line with the national result. I was trying to do something slightly different and focus on the swing, which means that if one of the seats at the top of the list is declared early at the next election it may be possible to have a good idea of what the overall swing is going to be if the seat remains a good indicator of swing (which isn't guaranteed of course).

    In other words, if Bedford declares early next time and it's a 1% swing to Labour, it may be a fairly good indicator that the national swing will be around 1% to Labour as well, even if the swing is, say, 3% to Labour or 1% to the Conservatives with all the seats declared at that time. It would be best of course to take a selection of the seats at the top of the list rather than just one or two.
    National Swing appears to have become much less uniform than in the past- so it is probably quite a hit and miss exercise. At one time Gravesend - later Gravesham - was said to closely mirror national changes - though the seat has become much more volatile in recent decades and for the moment is safely Tory.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    malcolmg said:

    yes but he was talking about the recent ones who were indeed very dire.

    Jack Straw. "Machine-gunner" Blunkett. Charles Clarke. John Reid. Jacqui Smith (titter). Alan Johnson.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    TGOHF said:
    He should talk to some of his supporters - some were quoted gleefully on here yesterday about how dominating the EU would be to those outside of it and weaker than it, as a positive point for some reason. Listening and guiding is at least a nobler ambition.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Elliot said:


    Only to the extent that Germany doesn't have very extensive global ambitions due to its history. France is similar to us, and its politics are similarly fractious as ours. And that's with them having far more direction over EU policy than we ever did.

    Germany is hugely successful and ambitious globally .
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Mid Derbyshire (and its predecessor Amber Valley) is more representative than both yes, so I changed it
    There is still an Amber Valley seat.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TGOHF said:
    I’m sure they’re taking notes in Beijing. What a load of pompous twaddle.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Does that include Quebecois and Inuit?
    Yes. Because we have minorities in this country and Australia too, so while the Quebecois and Inuit may be a bit more "other"-ly than the Canadians I'd think of first so too in Australia are Aborigines and other minorities and so too in the UK are some minorities here.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited March 2018
    justin124 said:

    There is still an Amber Valley seat.
    Amber Valley is number 485 out of 632 for the last 3 elections. Not very accurate at forecasting the national swing recently. In 2015 and 2017 it moved to the Tories against the overall trend.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Jonathan said:

    We share a monarch with Yorkshire despite massive cultural differences.
    Oh come on. The rest of Britain isn't that far behind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    justin124 said:

    National Swing appears to have become much less uniform than in the past- so it is probably quite a hit and miss exercise. At one time Gravesend - later Gravesham - was said to closely mirror national changes - though the seat has become much more volatile in recent decades and for the moment is safely Tory.
    Birmingham Yardley was the mirror of national change until 1992, when it was lost to Labour despite Major winning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    justin124 said:

    There is still an Amber Valley seat.
    Mid Derbyshire was created in 2010 mainly from the old Amber Valley seat with a bit of Erewash and Derby added too
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,414
    Cookie said:

    This is fascinating.
    I would say we in the UK have most in common with:
    1) the ROI
    2) NZ
    3) Aus
    4) Canada
    5) Some European countries - let's say Netherlands, Norway, Denmark
    6) USA
    7) Some other European countries - Germany, Sweden, Finalnd
    8) Some other European countries - France, Italy, Spain

    5, 6, 7 and 8are very fluid though.

    As to Spain - I'd expect a Spaniard would have more in common with a Portuguese than most, and indeed the two languages are fairly close. But I'd also say a Spaniard would have more in common with an Arggentine than a German. But I'm not a Spaniard - I'm only guessing.

    I offer this as my opinion, and I would be interested to know what others think. I genuinely think language is massively important - the more polyglotally inclined and those with connections in Europe will obviously feel different, and there is no right answer.

    I think this is, by and large, accurate.

    I see two issues: Firstly some countries (India, South Africa, Belgium, Canada and Switzerland, among others) are inherently multi-language.

    There are plenty of Indians or South Africans who cannot converse with someone of their own country. (And I know a great many Flemish Belgians whose English is far, far better than their French.) And yet somehow these continue to be functioning countries.

    Secondly, to use the example of Marseilles earlier. I don't feel at home in Marseilles. But I feel very at home in Cap Ferrat and Eze, just down the coast. I think the differences inside countries can often be as large as the ones between countries. The town-rural divide being, to my mind, every bit as large as the one between most countries.
  • Soubry looking a bit dishevelled on News at 10
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Birmingham Yardley was the mirror of national change until 1992, when it was lost to Labour despite Major winning.
    That's true although in some ways it was always a rather unusual constituency because it had one of the highest percentage of working-class voters of any Tory seat until 1992.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Birmingham Yardley was the mirror of national change until 1992, when it was lost to Labour despite Major winning.
    Yardley did not fall to the Tories ,though, until 1959.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    BBC reporting May's speech went down well in Brussels. Also amusing to see how Corbyn's response was clearly pre-drafted given it went on the "not enough detail" line and the speech was very detailed.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Point of order: Spain is a very, very foreign country. Definitely not to be bracketed with France, Italy, or Portugal, despite the superficial similarities.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    HYUFD said:

    True but most Australians, New Zealanders and Canadians (outside of Quebec) are of British origin
    Decreasingly so.

    New Zealand is now over about 15% Maori, 7% Pacific Islanders,11% Asian, 2% Middle Eastern. Of the 2/3 of European heritage many are not British, indeed my own New Zealand family are part Dutch and part Maori.

    Much the same applies to Canada and Australia. Vancouver is quite Chinese, Melboune quite Greek and Italian etc etc.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    kle4 said:

    He should talk to some of his supporters - some were quoted gleefully on here yesterday about how dominating the EU would be to those outside of it and weaker than it, as a positive point for some reason. Listening and guiding is at least a nobler ambition.
    Like this one? :p

    https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/969342313045594112
  • Soubry looking a bit dishevelled on News at 10

    And her comments were ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    No country is more constrained by its history than Britain . Discuss.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Jonathan said:

    No country is more constrained by its history than Britain . Discuss.

    Or empowered by it. It cuts both ways.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    I think this is, by and large, accurate.

    I see two issues: Firstly some countries (India, South Africa, Belgium, Canada and Switzerland, among others) are inherently multi-language.

    There are plenty of Indians or South Africans who cannot converse with someone of their own country. (And I know a great many Flemish Belgians whose English is far, far better than their French.) And yet somehow these continue to be functioning countries.

    Secondly, to use the example of Marseilles earlier. I don't feel at home in Marseilles. But I feel very at home in Cap Ferrat and Eze, just down the coast. I think the differences inside countries can often be as large as the ones between countries. The town-rural divide being, to my mind, every bit as large as the one between most countries.
    I think your last line is overstated. I grew up in a big city (as a son of immigrants) and yet still feel more familiar with English country walks, pub cricket and orchards than I do with the local culture of Rome or Warsaw. Generally, I find the big divide is between megacities and the rest, rather than urban and rural.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2018
    Foxy said:

    Decreasingly so.

    New Zealand is now over about 15% Maori, 7% Pacific Islanders,11% Asian, 2% Middle Eastern. Of the 2/3 of European heritage many are not British, indeed my own New Zealand family are part Dutch and part Maori.

    Much the same applies to Canada and Australia. Vancouver is quite Chinese, Melboune quite Greek and Italian etc etc.
    So yes a clear majority of New Zealanders are still of British origin as is also the case in Canada (outside Quebec) and Australia.

    The fact they also have rising ethnic minority populations does not change much, so do we.

    London is almost 50% non white
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    AndyJS said:

    That's true although in some ways it was always a rather unusual constituency because it had one of the highest percentage of working-class voters of any Tory seat until 1992.
    Second most working class after Gosport.
  • And her comments were ?
    I couldn't tell you precisely. Not particularly impressed...
  • Tier 1 - Australia, Canada, and New Zealand

    Tier 2 - America

    Tier 3 - ROI, Scandinavia, The Netherlands, Germany,

    Tier 4 - Old Europe, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and the Eastern European countries

    Tier 900 - France
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Jonathan said:

    No country is more constrained by its history than Britain . Discuss.

    The second Amendment and America beg to disagree.

    But for the top prize I would give to Russia.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    Jonathan said:

    No country is more constrained by its history than Britain . Discuss.

    The Irish could give us a run for our money!

    Some countries just seem to have more history than future. It is one of the many things that we share with mainland Eurasia, and younger countries on other continents seem to have it the other way round.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Jonathan said:

    No country is more constrained by its history than Britain . Discuss.

    Germany. Case closed. They hugely constrain themselves, or try to be seen to at the least.

    In fairness they try to be exemplary, and generally are. And when they are not I’m sure it’s cock up not conspiracy.
  • I couldn't tell you precisely. Not particularly impressed...
    With her or she was not impressed
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    welshowl said:

    Germany. Case closed. They hugely constrain themselves, or try to be seen to at the least.

    In fairness they try to be exemplary, and generally are. And when they are not I’m sure it’s cock up not conspiracy.
    That's slightly different. Germany's history does not prevent it from having a totally clear view of its enlightened self-interest in the present day in the way that I think is true of both Russia and the UK.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    welshowl said:

    I’m sure they’re taking notes in Beijing. What a load of pompous twaddle.
    To be fair I think he is just rehashing what Blair said the UK's relationship with the EU should be.
    Jonathan said:

    No country is more constrained by its history than Britain . Discuss.

    I am uncomfortable with any claim that the UK is exceptional in any respect. Just for instance I think there were at least 10 genocides in the twentieth century, and I'd have thought any of the host countries would have a greater historical weight on their shoulders than any of the others.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Jonathan said:

    No country is more constrained by its history than Britain . Discuss.

    I don't know how one would begin to quantify that. There are plenty of nations still arguing over disputes minor or major stretching back hundreds of years and which inform their directions to great or lesser degrees. Constrained by history going back how far? To what extent does the impact of that history fluctuate? Are we only including negative constraints?
  • Tier 1 - Australia, Canada, and New Zealand

    Tier 2 - America

    Tier 3 - ROI, Scandinavia, The Netherlands, Germany,

    Tier 4 - Old Europe, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and the Eastern European countries

    Tier 900 - France

    Agree - lot of Scots connections with Canada and Scandinavia
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    welshowl said:

    Germany. Case closed. They hugely constrain themselves, or try to be seen to at the least.

    In fairness they try to be exemplary, and generally are. And when they are not I’m sure it’s cock up not conspiracy.
    Correct - if they had won WWII they wouldn’t be letting in 1M Syrian refugees.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Tier 1 - Australia, Canada, and New Zealand

    Tier 2 - America

    Tier 3 - ROI, Scandinavia, The Netherlands, Germany,

    Tier 4 - Old Europe, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and the Eastern European countries

    Tier 900 - France

    Different take.

    Tier 1 - France, USA.
    Tier 2 - Aus,NZ,Canada,ROI
    Tier 3 - Western Europe and Rest of Commonwealth
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601


    Tier 2 - America

    What, all several dozen of the countries there?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    HYUFD said:

    So yes a clear majority of New Zealanders are still of British origin as is also the case in Canada (outside Quebec) and Australia.

    The fact they also have rising ethnic minority populations does not change much, so do we.

    London is almost 50% non white
    If you discount the Irish! about 25% of "British" Australians and Kiwis are of Irish extraction. It is part of the strong strand of republicanism there.

    More than half of Australians have one or both parents born overseas. Decreasingly British.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    With her or she was not impressed
    Who in their right mind could be impressed with Soubry?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    welshowl said:

    Germany. Case closed. They hugely constrain themselves, or try to be seen to at the least.

    In fairness they try to be exemplary, and generally are. And when they are not I’m sure it’s cock up not conspiracy.
    Modern Germany is liberated from its history . Essentially it has to operate if the world began in 1990.
  • I've been using Andy's spreadsheet and it is interesting to see which seats have had the biggest cumulative swing to Con and which to Lab over the last 3 elections. The top 20 cumulative swings Con to Lab are mostly in London and the big cities:

    Bradford W
    Bethnal Green
    Poplar
    Brum Hall Green
    Walthamstow
    Ilford S
    Bristol W
    Hove
    Manc Withington
    E Ham
    Brum Hodge Hill
    Leicester S
    Dulwich
    Hackney S
    Hackney N
    Holborn
    Hammersmith
    Sheffield Hallam
    Edinburgh S
    Leyton

    The top 20 cumulative swings Lab to Con are in Scotland and the Midlands

    Aberdeen S
    Cannock
    Ayr
    Falkirk
    Bolsover
    Brigg
    Airdrie
    Moray
    Inverness
    Leics NW
    Kirkcaldy
    Glasgow E
    Linlithgow
    Kilmarnock
    Mansfield
    Lanark
    Warks N
    Livingstone
    Ayrshire Central
    Stoke N
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Jonathan said:

    Modern Germany is liberated from its history . Essentially it has to operate if the world began in 1990.
    Hmm, pretence and guilt are not liberation.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    edited March 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Modern Germany is liberated from its history . Essentially it has to operate if the world began in 1990.
    I found it very interesting to see the long-term polling showing that support for the EU in the UK peaked around the time of German reunification and the end of the Cold War (and of course the fall of Thatcher).
  • Who in their right mind could be impressed with Soubry?
    She was not impressed with May's speech
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Foxy said:

    If you discount the Irish! about 25% of "British" Australians and Kiwis are of Irish extraction. It is part of the strong strand of republicanism there.

    More than half of Australians have one or both parents born overseas. Decreasingly British.
    Do you think it's good if the British population decreases?
  • kle4 said:

    What, all several dozen of the countries there?
    That's the Americas isn't it?

    I mean of course Les États-Unis
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    Plenty of cultural commonality between Canada and the UK.

    Brampton is just like Southall, but with nicer houses.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Hmm, pretence and guilt are not liberation.
    That's deep. Not sure you're right.
  • Who in their right mind could be impressed with Soubry?
    Soubry herself maybe
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,535

    Tier 1 - Australia, Canada, and New Zealand

    Tier 2 - America

    Tier 3 - ROI, Scandinavia, The Netherlands, Germany,

    Tier 4 - Old Europe, Portugal, Italy, Poland, and the Eastern European countries

    Tier 900 - France

    France ranked far too high!
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    She was not impressed with May's speech
    Is that impressive enough to be impressed?
  • She was not impressed with May's speech
    Her fellow remainer, Nicky Morgan, was apparenty
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    Foxy said:

    If you discount the Irish! about 25% of "British" Australians and Kiwis are of Irish extraction. It is part of the strong strand of republicanism there.

    More than half of Australians have one or both parents born overseas. Decreasingly British.
    Given plenty of Brits still emigrate to Australia (It is our number 1 destination for emigration) having a parent born overseas in Australia does not really change the point a vast amount.

    Of course when the Australians voted on the monarchy 55% voted for, the same as voted No in Scotland and 3% more than voted Leave here
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited March 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Modern Germany is liberated from its history . Essentially it has to operate if the world began in 1990.
    But it doesn't though, the way it is now, the sort of country it wants to be, and not be, is based on what took place before. That's not a bad thing in their case, clearly, but just because they are reacting positively in response to their recent history does not mean they are not massively impacted and therefore contained by it. Heck, for any country that breaks so decisively away from either ancient tradition or more recent negative history, that break is itself showing the impact and constraint of said history due to the reaction to it.

    It's why I struggle with the idea we are more constrained by our history than other nations would be, it seems more likely all are equally constrained, but it shows itself more obviously in some than others, particularly when it comes to negative parts.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Jonathan said:

    That's deep. Not sure you're right.
    Have you read this (or listened to the original broadcasts)?

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Germany-Memories-Dr-Neil-MacGregor/dp/0241008336

    Absolutely fascinating stuff. History is ever-present in Germany, but unspoken. And it was a glorious history, until the 30th January 1933.

This discussion has been closed.