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SystemSystem Posts: 12,650
edited March 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for tomorrow’s big Brexit speech from Mrs. May

Former PM Tony Blair claims there is now a 50% chance Brexit won't happen https://t.co/CB9cDJEgo9 pic.twitter.com/obT3f0hLCy

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Comments

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    First
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,736
    Second. But Remainers think this could still be first.....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    MarqueeMark said:

    Second. But Remainers think this could still be first.....

    Third- something Arsenal Wenger dreams of
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:


    They have to be prepared to take a hit to protect membership, why would anyone else stay in if UK gets a good deal , it has to be markedly worse than being a member, other wise EU is dead. A hard rain is gonna fall or it is going to be very very expensive.

    Yes it does need to be worse than being a member, as you say leaving cannot appear an attractive prospect for anyone else down the line, but they still want things out of the negotiations just as we do (or else both sides would already have stopped talking), and there's a gap between giving us what all that we want, and telling us to eat shit and like it. The former would not work for them, but the latter is not the best option for them either. Something which is demonstrably worse for us than being in the EU, in their eyes, but which is enough for us to not crash out and not cooperate on even the things they do want, is best for everyone.

    It is clear, though, that fanatics on both sides want things as hard as possible. And if they are counting on the UK not being so stupid as to crash out and so to give in to all their demands they are bloody bonkers, since they believed that about Brexit in the first place and the vote still happened, so assuming the political scene will allow for us eat the shit they offer is unnecessarily risky.
    Quite. However, if they are so scared that the U.K. will look attractive as a model once outside and you’ve got to use a stick to keep the others in line, it’s not much of a club is it? It’s a prison.
    I do not think they need to have an intense worry in many more people seeing the demands of membership as outweighing the benefits, at the least in the short and medium term, but there is something to be said that they may have missed an opportunity to improve in Brexit's aftermath. One of the things that turned me from the EU in the end despite the dream of the EU being relatively attractive, was their constant reacting to events with glib lines about learning lessons, but then once a crisis was past the top EU bodies and people showing absolute contempt for the idea that meaningful reform should be attempted, sneering at populism once the threat had died down. It isn't in danger of collapsing, but they could have seized the chance to allay concerns and make it even stronger rather than react petulantly, even if they regard our own leaving as petulant.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited March 2018
    As Churchill said: "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else". Maybe that will apply to us vis-a-vis staying in? Shucks, maybe all the fuss will cause some EU reform.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited March 2018
    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    50% chance, what a dreamer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited March 2018
    Surely Parliament did consider the well-being of the people when they voted to trigger A50 despite knowing even a no deal scenario was a possibility, Sir John? I don't question the right of parliament to decide to vote again if it wanted, but somehow I get the impression if the MPs voted not to have a second referendum, you'd suggest we still needed one.

    It reminds me of the vote on parliament to have a vote on the final deal in a way - obviously it was billed as parliament emphasising its sovereignty over merely the government of the day, but it seemed to me if the vote had gone the other way the same would have been true, that parliament deciding it didn't need to have a final vote on the deal would still have been parliament exercising its sovereignty.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,296
    People will be more interested in what Carol Kirkwood has to say tomorrow than whatever wibble comes out of Tezzie's mouth.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,235
    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    SandyRentool said:

    People will be more interested in what Carol Kirkwood has to say tomorrow than whatever wibble comes out of Tezzie's mouth.

    I didn't know she had a speech coming up.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Mr Grant worries Barnier is overplaying his hand:

    https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/969259786754777088
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    Personally I do think the chances of Brexit not happening have increased, I'm just curious how he has quantified it as being a 50% chance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,757
    edited March 2018
    English lionesses thrashing the Frogettes 3 nil at half time.

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Mortimer said:

    50% chance, what a dreamer.

    He's triangulating (still). By saying 50% he's hoping people will think: ok not 50%, but maybe 20%, and start thinking it's a possibility.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Probably already posted but Polly actually wants Sinn Fein to take their seats in Westminster to thwart the democratic will of the British people...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/01/parliament-sinn-fein-saviours-brexit-impasse
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    I'm sure its at least 50% among the people he talks to but I doubt he's been anywhere near Sedgefield...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    MarkHopkins said:

    Mortimer said:

    50% chance, what a dreamer.

    He's triangulating (still). By saying 50% he's hoping people will think: ok not 50%, but maybe 20%, and start thinking it's a possibility.

    If he'd have said 5%, fewer people would laugh at him.....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited March 2018
    Tony Blair thinks.....

    He seemingly to me thought ( according to one of his ministers at least) devolution would kill Scottish nationalism stone dead, that having no transition controls on E Europeans was Ok, that reneging on a referendum on the EU constitution was ok, that giving away half our rebate because the French would reform the CAP (lol!!!!!!!!!!) and that invading Irsq was fine.

    Few have been so wrong about so much so often. Nobody squandered a political and economic legacy like he did.

    But he thinks Brexit should be reversed because the EU is on the cusp of reform on FOM.

    What an unspeakable fool.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    CarlottaVance said:

    Mr Grant worries Barnier is overplaying his hand:

    https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/969259786754777088

    The EU has a strong hand, and so has fallen back on its usual arrogance and condescension when it feels strong. It's an approach that is not necessary when it only enhances the position of UK hardliners, which is not without some cost to the EU if it leads to no deal at all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    Even the Blairite cheerleaders on here are beginning to give up on their Tone....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,235
    SandyRentool said:

    People will be more interested in what Carol Kirkwood has to say tomorrow than whatever wibble comes out of Tezzie's mouth.

    It’s not a fair comparison. Carol is talking about the weather, which Brits find really interesting. Poor Theresa is talking about Brexit and the EU which bores all normal people to tears.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.

    What we must all hope is that the UK economy performs well in the next decade, and that the deep weaknesses in our model can be painlessly addressed. The first signs (improving manufacturing, and a slight narrowing of our trade deficit) are encouraging: but we still run a massive current account deficit, and our savings rate is an all time low. Government debt, which fell as a percentage of GDP in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s, jumped in the 2000s, and continued rising in the 2010s. It's recently started downwards again, but we are far from out of trouble - especially as this decade has yet to see a single year of recession.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    Even the Blairite cheerleaders on here are beginning to give up on their Tone....
    There were Blairite cheerleaders?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,235
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    Personally I do think the chances of Brexit not happening have increased, I'm just curious how he has quantified it as being a 50% chance.
    Probably didn’t take him longer than 45 minutes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    That second point is a HUGE 'if'. Since the government hasn't taken control in the past 20 months, I see little prospect of it now.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    It so happens that UK withdrawal is not the worst of the EU’s current problems. The relationship between a government and the market in capitalist systems is all-consuming and fundamental. The EU is in that relationship with the overall EU economy. But this means that the relationship tends to reach into higher and higher levels of the public policy which ultimately determines the distribution of the burdens and benefits of a society, perhaps even fiscal policy. In a liberal democratic capitalist system, this means that there must be politics.

    The EU has the substance of traditional liberal democratic institutions, but it does not have the essence of liberal democracy, which rests on the relentless daily struggle of public opinion, causing and justifying law-making and government and administration. Resolving that problem is an urgent priority.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    I reckon its why we're leaving, and why ultimately, we're right to, even if the short term is uncomfortable.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited March 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish.

    That's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO. They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    Personally I do think the chances of Brexit not happening have increased, I'm just curious how he has quantified it as being a 50% chance.
    Probably didn’t take him longer than 45 minutes.
    Boom!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,294
    MarkHopkins said:

    Mortimer said:

    50% chance, what a dreamer.

    He's triangulating (still). By saying 50% he's hoping people will think: ok not 50%, but maybe 20%, and start thinking it's a possibility.

    Betfair has it at 20%
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,449
    For a lot of powerful people, a vote in favour of more Europe is irrevocable. A vote against must always be reversed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish, that's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO.

    They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    Once we're in transition, Rejoin becomes "take back control", and Brexiteers should know how potent that message can be. The difference is that this time it would be true.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,235
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.

    What we must all hope is that the UK economy performs well in the next decade, and that the deep weaknesses in our model can be painlessly addressed. The first signs (improving manufacturing, and a slight narrowing of our trade deficit) are encouraging: but we still run a massive current account deficit, and our savings rate is an all time low. Government debt, which fell as a percentage of GDP in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s, jumped in the 2000s, and continued rising in the 2010s. It's recently started downwards again, but we are far from out of trouble - especially as this decade has yet to see a single year of recession.

    Ah but we’ve cheated. No Labour government.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish, that's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO.

    They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    And given actual enthusiasm for the EU is (and likely has been for several decades) pretty low, I'd suspect its a fools' errand even starting that debate. It is going to be a niche hobby horse view for a few Lib Dems and the odd Blairite Metropolitan.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Benpointer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    That second point is a HUGE 'if'. Since the government hasn't taken control in the past 20 months, I see little prospect of it now.
    I don't know. Behind all the sound and fury and hysteria and Faisal Islam having a daily nervous breakdown I suspect behind the scenes negotiations haven't gone as badly as both sides like to make out...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Benpointer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    That second point is a HUGE 'if'. Since the government hasn't taken control in the past 20 months, I see little prospect of it now.
    A fair point - the next phase is crucial, in particular how the headbangers react to any compromise, of which there are bound to be plenty. The longer they are kept from kicking off even as some compromises are agreed, the riskier it becomes for continuity remainers to try to disrupt a potential deal with the fainter hope of, well remain, and risk a total crash out. Frankly I see the headbangers for whom no deal is the only true brexit as being the biggest risk to brexit occurring, since if they pull the plug on May too soon I can see Labour shifting gear again and a reversal happening. The further down the path we get, and thus the more brexit impacts are mitigated, however imperfectly for many remainers, and the less time there is to attempt a reversal and to stay after all, thus making no deal more likely if the deal is in the end disrupted.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    Even the Blairite cheerleaders on here are beginning to give up on their Tone....
    There were Blairite cheerleaders?
    A lot of left-wingers who used to think Blair was a evil neo-liberal warmongerer have recently decided that he is in fact a wonderful elder statesman to whom We All Must Listen.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    https://twitter.com/Maart2704/status/969165772781125633
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,757
    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish, that's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO.

    They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    Once we're in transition, Rejoin becomes "take back control", and Brexiteers should know how potent that message can be. The difference is that this time it would be true.
    Well tonight we have heard how Leave allows us to take back control of our borders, by having an open and unpoliced border.

    The next level of absurdity is what?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,736
    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish, that's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO.

    They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    Once we're in transition, Rejoin becomes "take back control", and Brexiteers should know how potent that message can be. The difference is that this time it would be true.
    You really are a complete loon.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
    Or not.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MarqueeMark said:

    Second. But Remainers think this could still be first.....

    It's the EU way - vote again until "correct" response given
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,235
    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish, that's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO.

    They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    Once we're in transition, Rejoin becomes "take back control", and Brexiteers should know how potent that message can be. The difference is that this time it would be true.
    Take control so we can give it away again? I’m going to put this down as a work in progress.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish.

    That's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO. They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    Short of a catastrophic recession, where millions end up out of work, the UK will not turn its back on Brexit. This isn't to do with "forces of Remain", it's because we had a referendum, and 85% of people accept the result.

    (This board is not representative of real life.)

    But the bigger worry I have is that in a quest for the "purest" Brexit possible, we end up with a very unhappy country, and one that takes a long time to heal.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Where is TMay giving her Brexit speech tomorrow, anyone know?

    PS Presumably not Cardiff!
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    John Major specifically ruled out a second referendum during the campaign.Another one to add to the growing list of individuals needlessly trashing their reputations on the rocks of Brexit.

    For heavens sake just tell them to keep quiet.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish, that's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO.

    They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    Once we're in transition, Rejoin becomes "take back control", and Brexiteers should know how potent that message can be. The difference is that this time it would be true.
    You are a wag.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.

    What we must all hope is that the UK economy performs well in the next decade, and that the deep weaknesses in our model can be painlessly addressed. The first signs (improving manufacturing, and a slight narrowing of our trade deficit) are encouraging: but we still run a massive current account deficit, and our savings rate is an all time low. Government debt, which fell as a percentage of GDP in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s, jumped in the 2000s, and continued rising in the 2010s. It's recently started downwards again, but we are far from out of trouble - especially as this decade has yet to see a single year of recession.

    Ah but we’ve cheated. No Labour government.
    Yet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    I think Donald Trump is only really pro Donald Trump.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,449
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
    To be a great power, you have to be prepared to take casualties and force your enemies to bend to your will.

    I don't think the EU has that appetite.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    We are going to look back in disbelief, as we push our supermarket trolleys down the nuclear winter roads, at the fact that on the day of Putin going all Kim Il Jong on the missile front, we were bickering about Irish customs checks.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    DavidL said:

    Is 50% even better than the chances of finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? Or was that even more certain?

    This is getting tedious.

    100% yesterday's man - a man of no credibility
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited March 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.


    Sure but once we're out the argument is transformed because OUT becomes the status quo and REMAIN become REJOIN... Which is a whole different kettle of fish.

    That's why the Forces Of Remain are so desperate to reverse it now, IMO. They know once we actually leave they've got to win a whole different argument to rejoin.
    But the bigger worry I have is that in a quest for the "purest" Brexit possible, we end up with a very unhappy country, and one that takes a long time to heal.
    Yes, that seems more likely. Those seeking the purest form who cannot be satisfied, people who falsely claim they want to be reached out to by leavers but who also cannot be satisfied, these are the sorts who, when found among the leaders here and in the EU, are actually making things worse. The problem is, of course, that in times of chaos and confusion small groups who are persuasive in their certainty can direct the moderate majority through that certainty and passion. No doubt many see Brexit itself as having been an example of that (though it would be fair to say in response to that, that the EU and its defenders really dropped the ball if so many were so uncertain about it that they were swayed).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,235
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/Maart2704/status/969165772781125633

    Inspired.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Benpointer said:

    Where is TMay giving her Brexit speech tomorrow, anyone know?

    PS Presumably not Cardiff!

    Benpointer said:

    Where is TMay giving her Brexit speech tomorrow, anyone know?

    PS Presumably not Cardiff!

    Actually there is only about 10cm so far of the white stuff. But it’s very powdery and drifting. And still coming down....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Snow?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Ishmael_Z said:

    We are going to look back in disbelief, as we push our supermarket trolleys down the nuclear winter roads, at the fact that on the day of Putin going all Kim Il Jong on the missile front, we were bickering about Irish customs checks.

    Putin is our friend. It's Juncker we should be worrying about.

    (c) Nigel Farage, 2018
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    I read that as the huge story being that Yorkshire and the north were to be broken, which I thought they already were. :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,449
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    On the subject of polling:

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/asking-how-your-friends-will-vote-could-increase-polling-accuracy/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.

    What we must all hope is that the UK economy performs well in the next decade, and that the deep weaknesses in our model can be painlessly addressed. The first signs (improving manufacturing, and a slight narrowing of our trade deficit) are encouraging: but we still run a massive current account deficit, and our savings rate is an all time low. Government debt, which fell as a percentage of GDP in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s, jumped in the 2000s, and continued rising in the 2010s. It's recently started downwards again, but we are far from out of trouble - especially as this decade has yet to see a single year of recession.

    Ah but we’ve cheated. No Labour government.
    Yet.
    Give it 18 months
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    rcs1000 said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    We are going to look back in disbelief, as we push our supermarket trolleys down the nuclear winter roads, at the fact that on the day of Putin going all Kim Il Jong on the missile front, we were bickering about Irish customs checks.

    Putin is our friend. It's Juncker we should be worrying about.

    (c) Nigel Farage, 2018
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russias-anti-eu-tweets-eclipsed-leave-campaign-8q6sr0hgm

    Anti-EU articles published by Russian media outlets had four times more social media impact before the Brexit vote than the official Leave campaigns, analysis suggests.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    They did, also said he'd be good for Brexit/The UK.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
    I thought the Borg was in the Delta Quadrant in our time, but I had no idea that was Brussels.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,666
    edited March 2018
    FPT
    williamglenn said:

    RobD said:



    Why? What do the shared legal frameworks as described in the GFA have to do with the EU?

    The EU is that framework. That's why the agreement talks about ensuring the council is represented in EU meetings.
    The framework is the council, not the EU. And it is the views of the Council that are represented at EU meetings, not the council itself.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
    Only yesterday you accepted that we'll be leaving.....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,296
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    So another government U-turn. 'Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!'

    Can I be the first to say #Hilary4Mayor
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,449
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    They did, also said he'd be good for Brexit/The UK.
    The latter is probably true. He's indifferent. Hilary Clinton would have been hostile.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,489
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Even better, he's now a "gun grabber". Of course he probably won't do anything useful, but I'm enjoying the spectacle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Mortimer said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
    Only yesterday you accepted that we'll be leaving.....
    He might still. A reversal of Brexit via us rejoining later would in fact be more powerful than merely reversing it by not leaving after all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,736
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    That jobs got your name all over it...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Mortimer said:

    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
    Only yesterday you accepted that we'll be leaving.....
    Today, we are leaving - present continuous.
    Next month, we'll be leaving - future continuous.
    April 2019, we will not have left - future *perfect*. ;)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,449
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Sure, but Trump has always loathed free trade.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    So another government U-turn. 'Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!'

    Can I be the first to say #Hilary4Mayor
    Dan Jarvis is going for it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,296
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    So another government U-turn. 'Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!'

    Can I be the first to say #Hilary4Mayor
    Dan Jarvis is going for it.
    I thought he was after the Sheffield job?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    Sean_F said:

    For a lot of powerful people, a vote in favour of more Europe is irrevocable. A vote against must always be reversed.

    When people who have been used to having things go their way experience the opposite you get to see how much of the facist they have within them.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,884
    williamglenn said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    This struck a chord yesterday - Professor Allott (Professor Emeritus of International Public Law at Cambridge University):

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/03/01/the-eu-legal-system-is-not-a-thing-you-can-leave/

    Yes, this struck a chord:

    Another urgent priority is to establish the EU in its rightful place as a great power on the global stage.

    The reversal of Brexit will be the moment the EU truly arrives as a great power on the global stage. It will have far more geopolitical significance than the Brexit vote itself, which turned out to be a damp squib.
    Seems to me it may be Brexit which does that. The Irish/Northern Ireland border issue points the way: the UK is no longer dealing with Ireland but with the EU.

    What Ireland wants will influence the EU but will not be completely definitive.

    Good evening, everybody.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    That jobs got your name all over it...
    If they give it the title Governor of Yorkshire I'm going for it.

    I won't go for any job with a crap title like Mayor or First Minister.

    I might consider First Lord of Yorkshire or Warden of the North.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Democracy? Bah Humbug!

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/969210238619529216
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    The problem with these kind of tariffs is that it's a slippery slope:

    First, you put it on the steel.
    But that makes US made cars more expensive, so you put it on foreign cars.
    This results in a tit-for-tat, where the Chinese kill their Boeing orders.
    Boeing then complains about competition from Airbus in the US, and there are tariffs on imports of other airplanes.

    I don't really want us to go down the plughole of protectionism, like we did in the 1920s and 30s.
    Protectionism on the rise. The UK's self-removal from the world's largest free trade area could not have been more ill-timed.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    another_richard said:

    Sean_F said:

    For a lot of powerful people, a vote in favour of more Europe is irrevocable. A vote against must always be reversed.

    When people who have been used to having things go their way experience the opposite you get to see how much of the facist they have within them.
    I remember my bleeding heart liberal SJW mates calling for the water cannon during the London riots, as the rioters were getting a bit near to their own houses....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    So another government U-turn. 'Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!'

    Can I be the first to say #Hilary4Mayor
    Dan Jarvis is going for it.
    I thought he was after the Sheffield job?
    If this deal people are hinting at, it will supersede that, it will cover the whole of Yorkshire, not just the Sheffield City Region.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,489
    Ishmael_Z said:

    We are going to look back in disbelief, as we push our supermarket trolleys down the nuclear winter roads, at the fact that on the day of Putin going all Kim Il Jong on the missile front, we were bickering about Irish customs checks.

    ++

    When the stories about Putin's enormous torpedo first surfaced a lot of "clever" people dismissed it as disinformation. Which might have made sense if it was not for the new submarines* Russia was building which appear to have a bloody great torpedo tube.

    If nothing else I think we can now declare that Cold War 2.0 has begun.

    * Three of them so far; one built, one being built, and one on the drawing board.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    So another government U-turn. 'Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!'

    Can I be the first to say #Hilary4Mayor
    Dan Jarvis is going for it.
    I thought he was after the Sheffield job?
    If this deal people are hinting at, it will supersede that, it will cover the whole of Yorkshire, not just the Sheffield City Region.
    The known universe then?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    That jobs got your name all over it...
    If they give it the title Governor of Yorkshire I'm going for it.

    I won't go for any job with a crap title like Mayor or First Minister.

    I might consider First Lord of Yorkshire or Warden of the North.
    Frankly the combined authorities merely being mayors really undermines them for me, not to mention being confusing. Some places have 3 different mayors. Lord mayors, city mayors and combined authority mayors.

    I doubt they have enough power to justify being governors or wardens of the north, but it would be much more badass.

    And don't get me started on PCCs, such a weak name. I'd heard people thought using Sheriff sounded too american, but I don't know if that is true.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Remember when people used to think Donald Trump was pro free trade?

    Did they? Opposition to free trade is his one consistent attitude.
    They did, also said he'd be good for Brexit/The UK.
    The latter is probably true. He's indifferent. Hilary Clinton would have been hostile.

    Trump is the most anti-UK president in living memory. On a personal level he is entirely indifferent to us, but his policies - such as initiating trade wars - run directly contrary to our interests

  • glwglw Posts: 10,489
    another_richard said:

    Sean_F said:

    For a lot of powerful people, a vote in favour of more Europe is irrevocable. A vote against must always be reversed.

    When people who have been used to having things go their way experience the opposite you get to see how much of the facist they have within them.
    Fascist is a bit strong, but their commitment to democracy and listening to the "will of the people" is a bit more flexible than is ideal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,666
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    That jobs got your name all over it...
    If they give it the title Governor of Yorkshire I'm going for it.

    I won't go for any job with a crap title like Mayor or First Minister.

    I might consider First Lord of Yorkshire or Warden of the North.
    Frankly the combined authorities merely being mayors really undermines them for me, not to mention being confusing. Some places have 3 different mayors. Lord mayors, city mayors and combined authority mayors.

    I doubt they have enough power to justify being governors or wardens of the north, but it would be much more badass.

    And don't get me started on PCCs, such a weak name. I'd heard people thought using Sheriff sounded too american, but I don't know if that is true.
    How about Viceroy of the North. :p
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    glw said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    We are going to look back in disbelief, as we push our supermarket trolleys down the nuclear winter roads, at the fact that on the day of Putin going all Kim Il Jong on the missile front, we were bickering about Irish customs checks.

    ++

    When the stories about Putin's enormous torpedo first surfaced a lot of "clever" people dismissed it as disinformation. Which might have made sense if it was not for the new submarines* Russia was building which appear to have a bloody great torpedo tube.

    If nothing else I think we can now declare that Cold War 2.0 has begun.

    * Three of them so far; one built, one being built, and one on the drawing board.
    Can we have the @rcs1000 update on how long Russia's economy can survive at the current natural resources prices....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/969336547785965568
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    LauraK on Mrs May's speech:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43250039
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This week could well be the final roll of the dice from the Forces Of Remain...

    They've dominated "the grid" right from Jezza on Monday... But it's hard to see how they can achieve another week of 24/7 hysteria like they've launched this week.

    If the polls don't move very much (I don't think they will personally) and the government starts taking control of the narrative following Theresa's speech, this could well be the death throes of REMAIN!

    We will be leaving the EU in 13 months time (give or take a month).

    However, the argument will rage on for a decade. There will be winners from Brexit, and there will be losers. And the losers will be sore. Everything that goes wrong - economically - in the UK in the next five, or even ten, years will be blamed on our non-membership of the EU.

    What we must all hope is that the UK economy performs well in the next decade, and that the deep weaknesses in our model can be painlessly addressed. The first signs (improving manufacturing, and a slight narrowing of our trade deficit) are encouraging: but we still run a massive current account deficit, and our savings rate is an all time low. Government debt, which fell as a percentage of GDP in the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s, jumped in the 2000s, and continued rising in the 2010s. It's recently started downwards again, but we are far from out of trouble - especially as this decade has yet to see a single year of recession.

    As a percentage of GDP the trade deficit has fallen quite a lot:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/timeseries/d28l/ukea

    The problem is that after twenty years of continuous trade deficits and a simultaneous tourism deficit we really need a few years of trade surpluses.

    If the current trend continues the UK's budget and trade (but not current account) deficits will end in a couple of years.

    And that will be used as an excuse for the government to turn on the spending taps.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    edited March 2018
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    That jobs got your name all over it...
    If they give it the title Governor of Yorkshire I'm going for it.

    I won't go for any job with a crap title like Mayor or First Minister.

    I might consider First Lord of Yorkshire or Warden of the North.
    Frankly the combined authorities merely being mayors really undermines them for me, not to mention being confusing. Some places have 3 different mayors. Lord mayors, city mayors and combined authority mayors.

    I doubt they have enough power to justify being governors or wardens of the north, but it would be much more badass.

    And don't get me started on PCCs, such a weak name. I'd heard people thought using Sheriff sounded too american, but I don't know if that is true.
    How about Viceroy of the North. :p
    Nah, infers a Royalist appointment.

    I'd accept the job of Viceroy of Scotland though.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Some generational food for thought on the American midterms. Series of tweets highlighting some Pew Research

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/969305861930803200?s=20
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,449
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Any ideas TSE?

    https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/969331468345446401

    Devolution for Yorkshire I believe.

    Rumours are they are going for a de facto Governor of Yorkshire.

    It has the name, YMCA (Yorkshire Mayoral Combined Authority)
    So another government U-turn. 'Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!'

    Can I be the first to say #Hilary4Mayor
    Dan Jarvis is going for it.
    I thought he was after the Sheffield job?
    If this deal people are hinting at, it will supersede that, it will cover the whole of Yorkshire, not just the Sheffield City Region.
    That's weird. Leeds, Bradford, Harrogate, Driffield, Richmond, Hull have nothing in common with Sheffield.
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