politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chris Rennard’s “Winning Here” – the requiem for the battered
Comments
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It would be seriously out of character for her but is there a chance that May just might tell the EU where to go with this nonsense and become, you know, popular? That would be a turn up for the books.0
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I have long believed the common brown rat has received very bad press over the years and that it remains unproven that it had anything whatsoever to do with it.DavidL said:
The 100 years war could have been even more violent, exploration (and conquest) of the rest of the planet would have started 100-200 years earlier, Islam would probably have not got nearly so far into Europe as it did (although they were affected as well of course) and there may even have been more Crusades.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, it's not often commented on, but even pre-Black Death the population was declining (about 10% over a few decades) due to repeated poor harvests. The plague's impact meant that the population at the end of the 14th century was something like 2.5m (3.5m at the end of the 13th), and wouldn't hit that relative high again for roughly 300 years.
European history could've been very different had the population not been reduced so rapidly.
The black death seriously knocked the stuffing out of western Europe, no question.0 -
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
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Today Barnier has angered a huge part of this Country and done enormous harm to his casewilliamglenn said:
So she's going to extend it to the whole UK?HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
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Working as I do in the corporate transactional sector, I see this in transactional terms. Our agreement with the EU in December was the Heads of Terms document, and what we have seen today is the first draft of the Purchase Agreement, the key transaction contract document.
In my sphere of work, it is very rare that the first draft of the Agreement completely reflects the Heads. More often than not, the lawyers who prepare the first draft of the document will take an aggressive stance and produce a document that is weighted heavily in favour of their client. In addition, the first draft of the Agreement will often expose the fact that there remain a number of issues that should have been resolved at Heads stage but haven't been.
This seems to be exactly what has happened here. It should come as no surprise that the EU's lawyers have produced a very aggressive and partisan document, and it should come as no surprise that we still need to agree issues not covered in December.
What happens from here? Well the first point is that no transaction document is ever agreed at the first draft stage. Second point is that the EU, by producing an aggressive document, will know that they will need to concede a number of key points throughout the process. Third point, the end document is usually one that is fair to both sides.0 -
We've been here before, it didn't turn out too well.DavidL said:It would be seriously out of character for her but is there a chance that May just might tell the EU where to go with this nonsense and become, you know, popular? That would be a turn up for the books.
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Yes they were but after the Plague there was no energy, personnel or resources to have another go. Add a few more million to the population of western Europe and a whole other set of pressures would have come into play.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, weren't the crusades (to the Holy Land, anyway) largely done by then, though?
As an aside, disease did really hollow out Constantinople, making it even harder to defend against the Turks.
Edit, pure speculation, but I also wonder if doing much for the Church was quite as popular after a series of horrors. As you said, it wasn't just the plague.0 -
Time to differentiate between a Uk built hard border and an EU (via their regional vassal state the ROI) built and manned hard border.SouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
"You build a border if you want to" should be May's line.
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82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html0 -
Wonder if the market thinks 'no deal' now more likely?
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/9688284045177364480 -
That's how hard climate change can hit you in pre-industrial societies.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, it's not often commented on, but even pre-Black Death the population was declining (about 10% over a few decades) due to repeated poor harvests. The plague's impact meant that the population at the end of the 14th century was something like 2.5m (3.5m at the end of the 13th), and wouldn't hit that relative high again for roughly 300 years.
European history could've been very different had the population not been reduced so rapidly.
Much of that was down to a diminution of the late medieval warm period, which affected harvests and probably made England more susceptible to nasty pandemics like the Plague.
Not the best time to be alive; it's a wonder we managed to fit in an hundred years war with France right in the middle of it, yet alone achieve several celebrated victories.0 -
Got it - so we take the international pariah, cannot be trusted, no trade deals and economic catastrophe route. I see.TGOHF said:
Time to differentiate between a Uk built hard border and an EU (via their regional vassal state the ROI) built and manned hard border.SouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
"You build a border if you want to" should be May's line.
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Exactly. Though given this is politics and note pure "money" so to speak, there is a greater danger of one side telling the other to "go stick it".GreenHeron said:Working as I do in the corporate transactional sector, I see this in transactional terms. Our agreement with the EU in December was the Heads of Terms document, and what we have seen today is the first draft of the Purchase Agreement, the key transaction contract document.
In my sphere of work, it is very rare that the first draft of the Agreement completely reflects the Heads. More often than not, the lawyers who prepare the first draft of the document will take an aggressive stance and produce a document that is weighted heavily in favour of their client. In addition, the first draft of the Agreement will often expose the fact that there remain a number of issues that should have been resolved at Heads stage but haven't been.
This seems to be exactly what has happened here. It should come as no surprise that the EU's lawyers have produced a very aggressive and partisan document, and it should come as no surprise that we still need to agree issues not covered in December.
What happens from here? Well the first point is that no transaction document is ever agreed at the first draft stage. Second point is that the EU, by producing an aggressive document, will know that they will need to concede a number of key points throughout the process. Third point, the end document is usually one that is fair to both sides.0 -
A cent ? Hardly bottled water and shotgun time.CarlottaVance said:Wonder if the market thinks 'no deal' now more likely?
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/9688284045177364480 -
Did the whole enemies of the people, they are sabotaging our election, no deal is better than a bad deal, citizens of nowhere thing pass you by??DavidL said:It would be seriously out of character for her but is there a chance that May just might tell the EU where to go with this nonsense and become, you know, popular? That would be a turn up for the books.
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You think the mandate of 2016 will last a hundred years? That's bordering on insane.welshowl said:
Because in 10, 15, 20, 100 years time we are still going to be neighbours.williamglenn said:
Why should they care about UK public opinion?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think this is their first serious mistake and will harden public opinion against themSlackbladder said:The EU have crossed the Rubicon in interferring with the internal structure of the UK.
WTO it is. Fuck Off EU.
The EU is repeating its apparent fixation with a 2- 4 year time frame and not giving (seemingly) much thought to the long term. Do they want "Canada" 21 miles from their "USA", similar but different, cooperative, friendly, supportive, or do they want a sort of Japan/China, spiky, suspicious, antagonistic relationship?0 -
Regulatory alignment means SM & CU, to all intents and purposes. This is impossiblle for TM. It is clear that the choice is between fully IN or completely OUT. Barnier has increased the risk of no deal.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
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No doubt due to evil capitalist blacksmith forges belching out CO2.Casino_Royale said:
That's how hard climate change can hit you in pre-industrial societies.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, it's not often commented on, but even pre-Black Death the population was declining (about 10% over a few decades) due to repeated poor harvests. The plague's impact meant that the population at the end of the 14th century was something like 2.5m (3.5m at the end of the 13th), and wouldn't hit that relative high again for roughly 300 years.
European history could've been very different had the population not been reduced so rapidly.
Much of that was down to a diminution of the late medieval warm period, which affected harvests and probably made England more susceptible to nasty pandemics like the Plague.
Not the best time to be alive; it's a wonder we managed to fit in an hundred years war with France right in the middle of it, yet alone achieve several celebrated victories.
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You forgot the outsourcing of maintaining our border to a foreign entity. Surely the very essence of taking back control?SouthamObserver said:
Got it - so we take the international pariah, cannot be trusted, no trade deals and economic catastrophe route. I see.TGOHF said:
Time to differentiate between a Uk built hard border and an EU (via their regional vassal state the ROI) built and manned hard border.SouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
"You build a border if you want to" should be May's line.0 -
I remembered that and that's why I said it would be out of character. But the EU are massively overplaying their hand here. A cynic might wonder if there is lots of stuff in the draft to be taken out so that the ultimate deal becomes more sellable. Just maybe they have learned from their complete incompetence with Cameron after all.TheScreamingEagles said:
We've been here before, it didn't turn out too well.DavidL said:It would be seriously out of character for her but is there a chance that May just might tell the EU where to go with this nonsense and become, you know, popular? That would be a turn up for the books.
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Max Moseley, Impress, and links to senior politicians gets an airing.
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Telegraph running commentary
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/28/brexit-eu-set-unveil-controversial-irish-border-treaty-theresa/
"Mr Barnier is asked why the document seems to accept there can be an east-west Irish border, but no north-south border.
Mr Barnier dodges the question, then gathers his papers and leaves the podium. "
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In Kelly's 'The Great Mortality', he lays the blame firmly at the foot, or possibly, whiskers of the marmot. Apparently trade routes shifted North under the Mongol khanate, and caravans from the east travelled through the marmotian heartlands. Bubonic plague is endemic among them.volcanopete said:
I have long believed the common brown rat has received very bad press over the years and that it remains unproven that it had anything whatsoever to do with it.DavidL said:
The 100 years war could have been even more violent, exploration (and conquest) of the rest of the planet would have started 100-200 years earlier, Islam would probably have not got nearly so far into Europe as it did (although they were affected as well of course) and there may even have been more Crusades.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, it's not often commented on, but even pre-Black Death the population was declining (about 10% over a few decades) due to repeated poor harvests. The plague's impact meant that the population at the end of the 14th century was something like 2.5m (3.5m at the end of the 13th), and wouldn't hit that relative high again for roughly 300 years.
European history could've been very different had the population not been reduced so rapidly.
The black death seriously knocked the stuffing out of western Europe, no question.
On topic, it's time for May to take a lead from that wise statesman Jay-Z.
"I got 99 problems but a hard border with the Republic of Ireland ain't one"
Admittedly the original scans better.0 -
Most people aren't following it, and those that are will only be doing so through their pre-existing prisms and prejudices.DavidL said:It would be seriously out of character for her but is there a chance that May just might tell the EU where to go with this nonsense and become, you know, popular? That would be a turn up for the books.
So, no. Unless Barnier and Juncker come over to London, take a slash on Winston Churchill's statue whilst being filmed and shouting insults at him in French, break into the Victoria Tower at night to secretly raise an EU flag over the Houses of Parliament, and both personally pledge in the Guildhall to put the Queen's Corgis out of their misery, and install Tusk as President in Buckingham Palace, then no.
And I'm not sure even then.0 -
That's a fall of just under a cent? Seems an appropriate response.CarlottaVance said:Wonder if the market thinks 'no deal' now more likely?
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/9688284045177364480 -
The EU won't last 100 years. Possibly not 40-50.williamglenn said:
You think the mandate of 2016 will last a hundred years? That's bordering on insane.welshowl said:
Because in 10, 15, 20, 100 years time we are still going to be neighbours.williamglenn said:
Why should they care about UK public opinion?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think this is their first serious mistake and will harden public opinion against themSlackbladder said:The EU have crossed the Rubicon in interferring with the internal structure of the UK.
WTO it is. Fuck Off EU.
The EU is repeating its apparent fixation with a 2- 4 year time frame and not giving (seemingly) much thought to the long term. Do they want "Canada" 21 miles from their "USA", similar but different, cooperative, friendly, supportive, or do they want a sort of Japan/China, spiky, suspicious, antagonistic relationship?
Just as the Thatcher reforms showed how a enterprising dynamic reforms in Britain could lead the way for soporific economies in Europe, so will Brexit.
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Makes sense to me. The one caveat is that even though it is the UK requiring the changes to the status quo, the UK has left it to the EC to draft the document and so to set the terms of the negotiation. That is obviously because the government is not capable of agreeing its own document, but it does allow changes to the first draft to be portrayed as victories - something that will suit both sides, of course, if we get to a final deal. This may just be a very clever way of side-lining the loons.GreenHeron said:Working as I do in the corporate transactional sector, I see this in transactional terms. Our agreement with the EU in December was the Heads of Terms document, and what we have seen today is the first draft of the Purchase Agreement, the key transaction contract document.
In my sphere of work, it is very rare that the first draft of the Agreement completely reflects the Heads. More often than not, the lawyers who prepare the first draft of the document will take an aggressive stance and produce a document that is weighted heavily in favour of their client. In addition, the first draft of the Agreement will often expose the fact that there remain a number of issues that should have been resolved at Heads stage but haven't been.
This seems to be exactly what has happened here. It should come as no surprise that the EU's lawyers have produced a very aggressive and partisan document, and it should come as no surprise that we still need to agree issues not covered in December.
What happens from here? Well the first point is that no transaction document is ever agreed at the first draft stage. Second point is that the EU, by producing an aggressive document, will know that they will need to concede a number of key points throughout the process. Third point, the end document is usually one that is fair to both sides.
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"100" was a long term figure I plucked out of the air to illustrate a general point. Who knows where we will be in 100 years time, or 25 for that matter, of course.williamglenn said:
You think the mandate of 2016 will last a hundred years? That's bordering on insane.welshowl said:
Because in 10, 15, 20, 100 years time we are still going to be neighbours.williamglenn said:
Why should they care about UK public opinion?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think this is their first serious mistake and will harden public opinion against themSlackbladder said:The EU have crossed the Rubicon in interferring with the internal structure of the UK.
WTO it is. Fuck Off EU.
The EU is repeating its apparent fixation with a 2- 4 year time frame and not giving (seemingly) much thought to the long term. Do they want "Canada" 21 miles from their "USA", similar but different, cooperative, friendly, supportive, or do they want a sort of Japan/China, spiky, suspicious, antagonistic relationship?
However, the EU deep down are pretty good at tactics to be sure, but I cannot fathom their strategic goal? Surely they either, in general terms want a "Canada" to continue my analogy, or they wish to convince a large majority of us of the worth of the EU "Project" so we settle down to being good Europeans in their eyes, (the latter being something similar to your view perhaps?). I cant see that saying you want to economically snip off a bit of the UK does either for them across the broad generality of UK voters.
Insert "Corsica" into their text instead of "NI" and replace "ECJ" with "Supreme Court in London" and see how that would play in France?
But it's a negotiation. Long way to go.0 -
Emily Thornberry having a hissy fit because Boris has left her urgent question stranded and for David Lidington to answer0
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When's 'That Speech' due? Is it tomorrow? Theresa needs to spell out, with the precision of a watchmaker and the clarity of a burbling creek, exactly what post-Brexit Britain will look like - NI border, customs arrangements, immigration levels, EU citizens' rights, the lot. Only then can we escape this quicksand.SouthamObserver said:
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
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VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html0 -
The UK let the EU set the agenda because hugely complicated draft documents proposing treaties, amendments, relationships, is exactly what the EU is all about whereas I'm sure our expertise on the issue is lacking and hence we probably couldn't have produced such a document even if we had wanted.
That in itself speaks a lot for our preparedness for the forthcoming negotiations.0 -
Not really - it is a conservative home survey and I as a member take part in these surveyslogical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html0 -
FridayStark_Dawning said:
When's 'That Speech' due? Is it tomorrow? Theresa needs to spell out, with the precision of a watchmaker and the clarity of a burbling creek, exactly what post-Brexit Britain will look like - NI border, customs arrangements, immigration levels, EU citizens' rights, the lot. Only then can we escape this quicksand.SouthamObserver said:
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
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Just when you think Brexit can't get any messier, the government seems to find a way to descend to another level of hell.0
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Daft negotiation tactics to reveal your hand with such clarity.Stark_Dawning said:
When's 'That Speech' due? Is it tomorrow? Theresa needs to spell out, with the precision of a watchmaker and the clarity of a burbling creek, exactly what post-Brexit Britain will look like - NI border, customs arrangements, immigration levels, EU citizens' rights, the lot. Only then can we escape this quicksand.SouthamObserver said:
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
You never sensibly tell a future employer what salary you want in £ and pence - you let them make the offer and respond.0 -
Only then can we be free!Big_G_NorthWales said:
FridayStark_Dawning said:
When's 'That Speech' due? Is it tomorrow? Theresa needs to spell out, with the precision of a watchmaker and the clarity of a burbling creek, exactly what post-Brexit Britain will look like - NI border, customs arrangements, immigration levels, EU citizens' rights, the lot. Only then can we escape this quicksand.SouthamObserver said:
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
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Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her0 -
Fixed that for you....Jonathan said:Just when you think Brexit can't get any messier, the EU seems to find a way to descend to another level of hell.
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WhyJonathan said:Just when you think Brexit can't get any messier, the government seems to find a way to descend to another level of hell.
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Jolyon's taking Miller badly:
Brexit is already undermining rule of law in the UK
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2018/02/brexit-already-undermining-rule-law-uk0 -
I think both sides are getting their tantrums out the way early.Jonathan said:Just when you think Brexit can't get any messier, the government seems to find a way to descend to another level of hell.
A necessary process both for the negotiations and the politics of selling it.0 -
And fits the mood music on a day where Toy'R'Us (UK) has gone into liquidation and Maplin appears to be about to do the same.DavidL said:
That's a fall of just under a cent? Seems an appropriate response.CarlottaVance said:Wonder if the market thinks 'no deal' now more likely?
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/968828404517736448
We're dooommmed Capt Mainwaring! We're all dooommmed!!!!
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Only in regards to the border between NI and the Republic. Though the UK might have to replicate that to appease the DUP.PeterC said:
Regulatory alignment means SM & CU, to all intents and purposes. This is impossiblle for TM. It is clear that the choice is between fully IN or completely OUT. Barnier has increased the risk of no deal.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
Free movement could still end though and we would still technically be out of the SM and CU0 -
I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.TGOHF said:
Daft negotiation tactics to reveal your hand with such clarity.Stark_Dawning said:
When's 'That Speech' due? Is it tomorrow? Theresa needs to spell out, with the precision of a watchmaker and the clarity of a burbling creek, exactly what post-Brexit Britain will look like - NI border, customs arrangements, immigration levels, EU citizens' rights, the lot. Only then can we escape this quicksand.SouthamObserver said:
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
You never sensibly tell a future employer what salary you want in £ and pence - you let them make the offer and respond.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.0 -
I always love non-A List people who think they have so many fascinating things to say that 1 autobiography isn't enough!
Volume 1 indeed...0 -
Does it really require an answer? Look at a map ...TGOHF said:Telegraph running commentary
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/28/brexit-eu-set-unveil-controversial-irish-border-treaty-theresa/
"Mr Barnier is asked why the document seems to accept there can be an east-west Irish border, but no north-south border.
Mr Barnier dodges the question, then gathers his papers and leaves the podium. "0 -
That is nothing to do with Brexit but the advance of the internet and on line sales. It is just going to get worse for the high street and the blame, if you want to apportion blame, is with every on line shopperBeverley_C said:
And fits the mood music on a day where Toy'R'Us (UK) has gone into liquidation and Maplin appears to be about to do the same.DavidL said:
That's a fall of just under a cent? Seems an appropriate response.CarlottaVance said:Wonder if the market thinks 'no deal' now more likely?
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/968828404517736448
We're dooommmed Capt Mainwaring! We're all dooommmed!!!!0 -
Did you miss the Florence speech ?TOPPING said:
I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.TGOHF said:
Daft negotiation tactics to reveal your hand with such clarity.Stark_Dawning said:
When's 'That Speech' due? Is it tomorrow? Theresa needs to spell out, with the precision of a watchmaker and the clarity of a burbling creek, exactly what post-Brexit Britain will look like - NI border, customs arrangements, immigration levels, EU citizens' rights, the lot. Only then can we escape this quicksand.SouthamObserver said:
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
You never sensibly tell a future employer what salary you want in £ and pence - you let them make the offer and respond.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.
The EU are forcing the pace and the Uk is slow handing them - their weakness shows in their desperation.0 -
You always bang on about this, but I see no evidence that the ConHome polls are in any way scientific or accurate.HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her0 -
The problem is the one identified months ago - the EU has flatly refused to enter into substantive discussions about the future relationship until the 'withdrawal' (including the Irish border) has been agreed, but the Irish border issue is entirely about the future relationship. What is the UK supposed to do faced with this nonsensical approach? All we can do is what Theresa May has been doing, namely saying we want to discuss the future relationship.TOPPING said:I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.0 -
A timely piece on the Irish border from Tom Harris.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/28/remainers-scaremongering-irish-border-becoming-actually-dangerous/0 -
Thank heavens the MPs have an opportunity to phrase a better question than that!HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her0 -
I have mingled with the proles on the Daily Mail, and I can report that the main stories are Harry & Meghan, snow, snow, dangerous snow and comforting food to eat during Snowmageddon.
The EU malarkey appears about halfway down, after Toys-R-Us and a murder.0 -
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Excellent post.GreenHeron said:Working as I do in the corporate transactional sector, I see this in transactional terms. Our agreement with the EU in December was the Heads of Terms document, and what we have seen today is the first draft of the Purchase Agreement, the key transaction contract document.
In my sphere of work, it is very rare that the first draft of the Agreement completely reflects the Heads. More often than not, the lawyers who prepare the first draft of the document will take an aggressive stance and produce a document that is weighted heavily in favour of their client. In addition, the first draft of the Agreement will often expose the fact that there remain a number of issues that should have been resolved at Heads stage but haven't been.
This seems to be exactly what has happened here. It should come as no surprise that the EU's lawyers have produced a very aggressive and partisan document, and it should come as no surprise that we still need to agree issues not covered in December.
What happens from here? Well the first point is that no transaction document is ever agreed at the first draft stage. Second point is that the EU, by producing an aggressive document, will know that they will need to concede a number of key points throughout the process. Third point, the end document is usually one that is fair to both sides.0 -
And they have shown their hand and caused great anger towards them from many which is likely, depending on how TM resists them to increase support for leavingTGOHF said:
Did you miss the Florence speech ?TOPPING said:
I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.TGOHF said:
Daft negotiation tactics to reveal your hand with such clarity.Stark_Dawning said:
When's 'That Speech' due? Is it tomorrow? Theresa needs to spell out, with the precision of a watchmaker and the clarity of a burbling creek, exactly what post-Brexit Britain will look like - NI border, customs arrangements, immigration levels, EU citizens' rights, the lot. Only then can we escape this quicksand.SouthamObserver said:
And today the EC has spelled out what it views as ongoing regulatory alignment for Northern Ireland. The PM has said that this is not acceptable. So time for her to spell out what is.HYUFD said:
By the regulatory alignment she agreed to in DecemberSouthamObserver said:
And she has also said again that there will be no hard border between NI and the RoI. So now it's time for her to explain how that is going to be achieved.Slackbladder said:Well May has just told Barnier where to stick this agreement it seems.
You never sensibly tell a future employer what salary you want in £ and pence - you let them make the offer and respond.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.
The EU are forcing the pace and the Uk is slow handing them - their weakness shows in their desperation.0 -
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Agreed - neither will get my votePeterMannion said:
Thank heavens the MPs have an opportunity to phrase a better question than that!HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her0 -
For the Stockholm syndrome Remainers there is no action the EU can take for which the blame cannot be laid solely at the door of HMG.Tissue_Price said:A timely piece on the Irish border from Tom Harris.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/28/remainers-scaremongering-irish-border-becoming-actually-dangerous/0 -
The EU is very willing - keen, even - to hear the UK government's proposals for cross-border trade in Ireland post-Brexit and how this will be managed - that is clear from the framework document signed in December. The problem is that the UK government has not come up with anything yet. Today's document is the EC's draft of what the fall-back position will be if the UK continues to fail to come up with proposals of its own.Richard_Nabavi said:
The problem is the one identified months ago - the EU has flatly refused to enter into substantive discussions about the future relationship until the 'withdrawal' (including the Irish border) has been agreed, but the Irish border issue is entirely about the future relationship. What is the UK supposed to do faced with this nonsensical approach? All we can do is what Theresa May has been doing, namely saying we want to discuss the future relationship.TOPPING said:I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.
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Media showing clip from PMQ's on EU Irish border demands and TM response 'And no UK prime minister could ever agree to that'
That is going to be popular0 -
Until ConHome start publishing their tables we can call them voodoo polls.JosiasJessop said:
You always bang on about this, but I see no evidence that the ConHome polls are in any way scientific or accurate.HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her0 -
She could explain what the future relationship looks like with reference to NI specifically. It would require a document, similar to the one that the EU has produced. You are saying that the EU's stance, which is either helpful or not depending upon your point of view, has completely hindered the UK government from saying anything they want either now, during the transition period, or post-transition as a future state between the two entities.Richard_Nabavi said:
The problem is the one identified months ago - the EU has flatly refused to enter into substantive discussions about the future relationship until the 'withdrawal' (including the Irish border) has been agreed, but the Irish border issue is entirely about the future relationship. What is the UK supposed to do faced with this nonsensical approach? All we can do is what Theresa May has been doing, namely saying we want to discuss the future relationship.TOPPING said:I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.
Now that really is nonsensical.0 -
Just media bubble stuffScott_P said:0 -
That's the problem with the EU crying wolf and faking bluster and threats - it becomes boring.John_M said:I have mingled with the proles on the Daily Mail, and I can report that the main stories are Harry & Meghan, snow, snow, dangerous snow and comforting food to eat during Snowmageddon.
The EU malarkey appears about halfway down, after Toys-R-Us and a murder.
They shot their load too early in 2017.0 -
ExactlyJohn_M said:I have mingled with the proles on the Daily Mail, and I can report that the main stories are Harry & Meghan, snow, snow, dangerous snow and comforting food to eat during Snowmageddon.
The EU malarkey appears about halfway down, after Toys-R-Us and a murder.0 -
It blows your theory about a wave of anger sweeping across the nation out of the water.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ExactlyJohn_M said:I have mingled with the proles on the Daily Mail, and I can report that the main stories are Harry & Meghan, snow, snow, dangerous snow and comforting food to eat during Snowmageddon.
The EU malarkey appears about halfway down, after Toys-R-Us and a murder.0 -
0
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The 2005 Conservative Home Tory members poll for the leadership which got Cameron's victory margin almost exactly right is evidence enough of its accuracyJosiasJessop said:
You always bang on about this, but I see no evidence that the ConHome polls are in any way scientific or accurate.HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her0 -
But why did Theresa May and David Davis agree to such a sequencing ?Richard_Nabavi said:
The problem is the one identified months ago - the EU has flatly refused to enter into substantive discussions about the future relationship until the 'withdrawal' (including the Irish border) has been agreed, but the Irish border issue is entirely about the future relationship. What is the UK supposed to do faced with this nonsensical approach? All we can do is what Theresa May has been doing, namely saying we want to discuss the future relationship.TOPPING said:I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.
He promised us the row of the summer over it then surrendered like a Frenchman.0 -
Today's mortality rate is 100%. How high was it back then?Morris_Dancer said:King Cole, mortality was very high due to disease. Believe the (initial) Black Death toll in London was 60%. Also, cities more prone to fire-related deaths.
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I don`t think anything would make the country "rally round" T May and her bunch of hapless clowns. Even though Corbyn & Co have been doing their best.SunnyJim said:In the same way that Obama's 'back of the queue' comment misunderstood the British psyche of bloody minded stubborn resistance to bullying so the EU may well find the UK's reaction to 'hard ball' may not be what they expected it would be.
Nothing will make a country rally round more than an unreasonable* external threat and, bar the ultra-remainer quislings, I can see a hardening in support for the government rather than a crumbling.
I don`t usually refer to people as a "bunch", though that is something that seems to be finding its way into our usage. In the present case, it is the best collective noun that I can think of.0 -
There are enough ERG Tory backbenchers and Eurosceptics to likely ensure 1 gets to the final 2, Tory MPs even put Leadsom in the final 2 in 2016PeterMannion said:
Thank heavens the MPs have an opportunity to phrase a better question than that!HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her0 -
It was said that Black Death sufferers had breakfast with their families and dinner with their ancestors.SandyRentool said:
Today's mortality rate is 100%. How high was it back then?Morris_Dancer said:King Cole, mortality was very high due to disease. Believe the (initial) Black Death toll in London was 60%. Also, cities more prone to fire-related deaths.
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Urrrm, that's not the way it works, is it? For one thing, you're having to go back thirteen years to prove its accuracy. Secondly, even an RNG could get such things correct occasionally. A stopped clock is correct twice a day.HYUFD said:
The 2005 Conservative Home Tory members poll for the leadership which got Cameron's victory margin almost exactly right is evidence enough of its accuracyJosiasJessop said:
You always bang on about this, but I see no evidence that the ConHome polls are in any way scientific or accurate.HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her
This is nothing to do with ConHome itself; I take all online polls pretending to take opinions with a massive dose of salt. They're almost all voodoo unless they go through some fairly severe hoops, which ConHome does not.
It seems more like you generally agree with the results it gets, and therefore you'd quite like it to be accurate.0 -
And a badly informed one. Border checks would, as they did previously, provide a very convenient and literal target for those who want a united Ireland.Tissue_Price said:A timely piece on the Irish border from Tom Harris.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/02/28/remainers-scaremongering-irish-border-becoming-actually-dangerous/
Not to understand this, to make the analogy with Camden and Islington (or Switzerland) is, as I say, to misunderstand the history of Ireland, of Irish Republicanism and of Irish Republicans and yes, to render the whole issue as a theoretical puzzle which can be solved logically.0 -
So Boris has a chap from Dublin renting his spare room Who knew?Scott_P said:
Edit: Beaten to it by CR!0 -
That will come as tonights news programmes focus on the stupid mistake by Barnier and of course TM speech on Friday will receive attention. Even Sky (Faisal Islam) is saying that TM's comment that no British PM can accept the EU position will play well in the Countrywilliamglenn said:
It blows your theory about a wave of anger sweeping across the nation out of the water.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ExactlyJohn_M said:I have mingled with the proles on the Daily Mail, and I can report that the main stories are Harry & Meghan, snow, snow, dangerous snow and comforting food to eat during Snowmageddon.
The EU malarkey appears about halfway down, after Toys-R-Us and a murder.0 -
I doubt that the EU is even remotely concerned about the opinions of the readership of the Daily Mail.TGOHF said:
That's the problem with the EU crying wolf and faking bluster and threats - it becomes boring.John_M said:I have mingled with the proles on the Daily Mail, and I can report that the main stories are Harry & Meghan, snow, snow, dangerous snow and comforting food to eat during Snowmageddon.
The EU malarkey appears about halfway down, after Toys-R-Us and a murder.
They shot their load too early in 2017.0 -
NEW THREAD
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Your intuition is probably correct.volcanopete said:
I have long believed the common brown rat has received very bad press over the years and that it remains unproven that it had anything whatsoever to do with it.DavidL said:
The 100 years war could have been even more violent, exploration (and conquest) of the rest of the planet would have started 100-200 years earlier, Islam would probably have not got nearly so far into Europe as it did (although they were affected as well of course) and there may even have been more Crusades.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, it's not often commented on, but even pre-Black Death the population was declining (about 10% over a few decades) due to repeated poor harvests. The plague's impact meant that the population at the end of the 14th century was something like 2.5m (3.5m at the end of the 13th), and wouldn't hit that relative high again for roughly 300 years.
European history could've been very different had the population not been reduced so rapidly.
The black death seriously knocked the stuffing out of western Europe, no question.
A recent study fingers human ectoparasites - fleas and lice:
http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/6/1304.full.pdf0 -
Given the 2005 Tory leadership contest was the last time the members were consulted Conservative Home can only do as well as it has leadership contest to measure and last time it did it got the result almost spot on.JosiasJessop said:
Urrrm, that's not the way it works, is it? For one thing, you're having to go back thirteen years to prove its accuracy. Secondly, even an RNG could get such things correct occasionally. A stopped clock is correct twice a day.HYUFD said:
The 2005 Conservative Home Tory members poll for the leadership which got Cameron's victory margin almost exactly right is evidence enough of its accuracyJosiasJessop said:
You always bang on about this, but I see no evidence that the ConHome polls are in any way scientific or accurate.HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her
This is nothing to do with ConHome itself; I take all online polls pretending to take opinions with a massive dose of salt. They're almost all voodoo unless they go through some fairly severe hoops, which ConHome does not.
It seems more like you generally agree with the results it gets, and therefore you'd quite like it to be accurate.
There is nothing wrong with online polls, yougov is now mainly online for example and Conservative Home filters out non members from its polls.
But if you want to believe Tory members will vote for Philip Hammond by a landslide be my guest!0 -
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So you're claiming it's accurate on one data point, and that from a long time ago? The problems with that should be obvious.HYUFD said:
Given the 2005 Tory leadership contest was the last time the members were consulted Conservative Home can only do as well as it has leadership contest to measure and last time it did it got the result almost spot on.JosiasJessop said:
Urrrm, that's not the way it works, is it? For one thing, you're having to go back thirteen years to prove its accuracy. Secondly, even an RNG could get such things correct occasionally. A stopped clock is correct twice a day.HYUFD said:
The 2005 Conservative Home Tory members poll for the leadership which got Cameron's victory margin almost exactly right is evidence enough of its accuracyJosiasJessop said:
You always bang on about this, but I see no evidence that the ConHome polls are in any way scientific or accurate.HYUFD said:
Conservative Home got the 2005 Tory leadership result almost spot on in its poll then, it is normally pretty accurate on Tory members sentiment.logical_song said:
VoodooHYUFD said:82% of Tory members oppose joining a Customs Union with the EU post Brexit according to the new Conservative Home poll with just 13% in favour
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-eight-in-ten-party-members-oppose-membership-of-a-customs-union-with-the-eu.html
The March next leader poll tomorrow or Friday should confirm if May goes Tory members will elect Boris or Mogg to succeed her
This is nothing to do with ConHome itself; I take all online polls pretending to take opinions with a massive dose of salt. They're almost all voodoo unless they go through some fairly severe hoops, which ConHome does not.
It seems more like you generally agree with the results it gets, and therefore you'd quite like it to be accurate.
There is nothing wrong with online polls, yougov is now mainly online for example and Conservative Home filters out non members from its polls.
But if you want to believe Tory members will vote for Philip Hammond by a landslide be my guest!
I have issues with the way 'proper' polling companies run their on-line polls, and see no evidence that ConHome are even that strenuous.
And BTW, I don't want to believe any such thing! 0 -
A decade of stagnant wages and productivty and falling home ownership because the law of supply and demand doesn't apply to immigrants apparently.SouthamObserver said:
The direct healthcare costs are - just as the UK can recover direct healthcare costs from other EU member states.another_richard said:
Aren't those healthcare costs recovered from the NHS ?SouthamObserver said:
That may be so in France, less so in Spain. But they are all big users of public services - and the older they are the more they use them. That is a cost for the host country.another_richard said:
The people who move from the UK to France and Spain tend to be affluent retirees with moey to spend ie the equivalent of permanent tourists.SouthamObserver said:
A number to.Cyclefree said:
The UK may well end up being the sick man of Europe. But it is precisely because it hasn't been that that it has been drawing in so many people to come and work here from elsewhere in Europe. It has acted as the employer for the unemployed young of the rest of Europe. And the rest of Europe has been a touch slow to recognise that that imposes costs (as well as benefits) on the UK to which those countries have been unwilling to contribute. The idea that it is only the UK which is guilty of wanting to cherry-pick is for the birds, frankly.daodao said:
Brexit hasn't yet happened. When the consequences of a hard Brexit dawn on the electorate in different parts of the UK, they will take action to try to reverse its adverse effects. I recall the map of the leave/remain areas of the UK on 24th June 2016 and it will bear fruit if a hard Brexit occurs. Cutting the UK (the sick man of Europe) down to size and stopping it prouncing in an Imperial manner on the world stage would be no bad thing in many foreigners' eyes.HYUFD said:
The DUP are still the biggest party in NI post Brexit and the SNP also lost almost half their MPs post Brexit
Had FoM resulted in other countries being inundated by Britain's unemployed young I am quite certain that the EU would have made changes to the rules.
I don't think there's much doubt that France and Spain are net financial beneficaries from British expats.
There is also little doubt that the UK is a net beneficiary from EU immigration.
And how does a town like Rotherham benefit from the thousands of East European Roma who have migrated there ?
Or does it not matter if 'people like them' are losing out as long as 'people like me' are benefitting ?
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I suspect that Kennedy's anti-Conservative beliefs play a large part in that.TheScreamingEagles said:I wonder if Lord Rennard regrets the silly decapitation strategy of 2005.
If they had focussed on more winnable seats they might have ended up with 80-100 MPs in 2005.
It was clear from 2003 onwards that the political pendulum was swinging rightwards.
The LibDems tried to stop that in 2005 instead of using it to their advantage.0 -
If there is no trade deal agreed then there is no deal at all. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Th trade deal is necessary to resolve the Irish Border issue.TheScreamingEagles said:
But why did Theresa May and David Davis agree to such a sequencing ?Richard_Nabavi said:
The problem is the one identified months ago - the EU has flatly refused to enter into substantive discussions about the future relationship until the 'withdrawal' (including the Irish border) has been agreed, but the Irish border issue is entirely about the future relationship. What is the UK supposed to do faced with this nonsensical approach? All we can do is what Theresa May has been doing, namely saying we want to discuss the future relationship.TOPPING said:I think we're beyond that playground faux wisdom approach.
The EU seems to have spelled out what they want. It is now our turn and, as @GreenHeron has noted, eventually come to some agreement. Without our side of the proposals, the negotiations will be conducted entirely with reference to the EU's document.
He promised us the row of the summer over it then surrendered like a Frenchman.
Even under WTO there is no need for a hard border since technology can cope with movements across the border - provided the UK and the EU agree. It's up to Ireland to get the EU to agree since hey would be the ones to suffer if there were barriers to exporting to NI.0
