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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The CBI give a thumbs up to Corbyn and Brussels said to be looking “kindly” at speech
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CBI praising the Marxist...LOL!
The key will be how it goes down with working class Labour Leave voters, given staying in the Customs Union does not require free movement Corbyn should be OK
I think zero votes are going to be moved by Labour's Customs Union shift. For all the delusions of some of the Brexit commentariat, Leave voters in the country were not voting for lots of trade deals - the reasons were immigration, more money for public services, and a generic protest vote. Customs Union membership doesn't preclude any of those. Just because it goes against the pet projects of a handful of Tory politicians, that doesn't mean it's "betraying the will of the people".
That said, I'm also sceptical whether (m)any Remain voters are going to switch their votes to Labour just on the basis of this. A great many of them don't have Brexit as their top priority, and even fewer actually understand the intricacies of the various aspects of the EU - on all the doors I knocked on during the election, only one person ever even used the terms "Single Market" or "Customs Union" (the terms "soft Brexit" and "hard Brexit" did come up a little more often, to be fair, but still not much at all).
Corbyn would be far more damaging as PM. And yet he might be....
That would be the hard Brexit faction of the Tories, who have been dragging May away from the centre of public opinion since Brexit night itself.
Or not. That was me being an idiot ...
Gove -and Harris get it. He doesn’t miss a few on here...
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/968203570502930436
"Comrades, our own Parliamentary Party don't know our full potential. They will do everything possible to test us; but they will only test their own embarrassment. We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates! Then, and when we are finished, the only sound they will hear is our laughter, while we sail to Coventry, where the sun is warm, and so is the... Comradeship!
"A great day, Comrades! We sail into history!"
It does not seem a cri de coeur for a radical environmental policy or free trade deals with Korea.
That means they will - above all else - support whatever is closest to the status quo, but it does not mean they are in the pockets of Brussels.
"This is not to dispute that Brexit is a bad idea, or that the people who have taken charge of the process are inept beyond words."
It's a funny old world, as someone once said. The day the CBI supports Jeremy Corbyn is the one where several sharks appear to have been jumped.
Of course, the predictable response comes from the usual suspects who seem unable to accept the tectonic plates and the political certainties they have preached have and are being undermined.
It's all politics and politics is a rough trade as someone else once said and if the name of the game in Opposition is to make life difficult for the Government.
As I explained this morning, we are crystallising around two visions of Britain post-EU membership - the Corbyn/CBI version sees a close economic relationship defined through the CU which would allow Corbyn to protect and expand workers' rights and protections and throw a bone of sorts on immigration (detail to be confirmed). We would follow the EU on trade with the rest of the world and many might wonder what was the point of leaving the EU - yes, we would be gone politically but economically it would cast a long shadow.
The other version is "Global Britain" which seems full of romanticised nautical imagery all about buccaneering and piracy (both highly illegal and unpleasant in their time) in which Britain, free of the EU shackles, builds bespoke economic relationships with all nations across the world and is able to draw in the investment and skills that the EU cannot match.
I'm not convinced by either. For all the rhetoric, as for many others, the Devil will be in the details.
Now that huge numbers of poorer voters support the Conservatives, and loads of well-heeled lefties support Labour, it's not so clear cut.
This is not to dispute that Brexit is a bad idea, or that the people who have taken charge of the process are inept beyond words.
I believe that the next GE will see Mr Corbyn become PM, so I've reconciled myself to that.
I voted Leave because
(a) I don't believe 'More Europe' is the answer to every problem;
(b) I don't believe that the UK population will be submissive to ever-increasing rule-by-unelected-bureaucrat;
(c) I'm afraid that at some future time (maybe 50 years off) the whole thing will end in war.
I hope I'm wrong and certainly wish the EU well.
As long as we actually do undock from the EU so that we are not part & parcel of their political project, that's fine by me. Divergence can happen in its own time & its own way.
IIRC Mr Cameron said he'd achieved that concession, but it wasn't in a Treaty and we've been gulled before like that.
Does this mean that the EU will agree to the UK belonging to a customs union AND being free to negotiate trade deals elsewhere. Is that what "looking kindly" means?
The ball is in the EU court. Lets hear from the EU soon -this week?
Broadly agree with your position. I was more worried about future disbenefits than some halcyon land of milk and honey.
You're correct that Cameron did get an opt-out of ever-closer-union and a promise that it would be in the next treaty, honest injun.
But doesnt he know that the EU doesnt allow countries to do what he is asking? You cant be in a customs union and have freedom to negotiate trade deals elsewhere which is what he says he wants.
Is he dumb?
Whether it is in the interests of the economy as a whole is another matter
The anti-CU argument asserts the UK can get better deals on its own (presumably that's the message May, Davis, Johnson and Fox will be re-iterating ad nauseam in the next few weeks). The problem is no one knows that - yes, I'm sure we will get nice deals with Canada, Australia and New Zealand but what about China, India and the other developing countries ?
Why should they be nice to us in deference to the much larger market that is the EU ?
"that the Government will have a negotiating objective with the EU to retain the ability to conduct independent trade negotiations with third countries. To the extent that membership of a Customs Union does not preclude that, it will also be a negotiating objective to come to a new Customs Union arrangement with the EU to avoid tariffs between the EU and the UK"
How could Labour oppose that, since it is effectively their policy?
Why should the low-skilled working class care about the economy as a whole, rather than themselves and their families? Nobody claims that trickle down is much of a thing any more, and if they accurately judge that restricting immigration might make their lives marginally less rubbish, they are entitled to vote accordingly without a chorus of pram-detoyers screeching "xenophobe" at them.
That doesn't matter though as this is a position worked out to influence the course of UK politics and nothing else.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-02-26/eu-might-look-kindly-on-labour-s-customs-union-brexit-plan?__twitter_impression=true
Just to reiterate, Turkey is in the wonderful position of having to give tariff free access to all those countries that have FTAs with the EU but is not allowed the same tariff free access in return.
The deal is horrendously one sided and does not serve them well at all. They had said that if TTIP was passed they would be forced to leave the CU.
If Labour’s idea were to become the U.K.’s position, it would likely be received positively in Brussels and across the bloc because it would be seen as beneficial to EU businesses, according to two people familiar with the EU’s Brexit negotiations.
But they don't need our custom etc. etc.
BTW, if Jezza does help us to have our cake and eat it in this regard, then fantastic.
Though only a tiny percent are interested in Fox's ficticious trade deals.
This is the bit that genuinely baffles me. How would restricting immigration make anyone's life less rubbish? It's a genuine question.
The CBI therefore are a shambles. I've no idea how they managed to get there, but get there they did.
It may be wrong but it is a powerful argument for people at the bottom of society.
It's often said that being in a Customs Union prevents the UK having its own trade deals. That's not strictly the case. The UK will have its own trade deals, and needs to have them, whether it is in a customs union or not. The problem for Britain is that having given the third party the access it wants through the EU customs union, the third party has no incentive to reciprocate.and to open its markets to the UK. This incidentally isn't a problem limited to being in a customs union. It applies also to any trade deal rolled over from an EU agreement.
The UK can deal with this reluctance of the third party to open its markets in two ways.
It can offer third parties preferential arrangements that go beyond tariff rates. For example on access to services.
It can ask the EU to include the UK in their negotiations with third parties, so the UK gets the same access as the EU. The EU doesn't owe the UK any favours and doesn't derive any direct benefit from doing so, so it will ask what it gets from the arrangement. It could derive ak significant indirect benefit. The addition of the UK market to the EU one makes for a more compelling offer to the third party, allowing it to drive a harder bargain. Keeping the UK closely aligned with the EU way of doing things would be a prize for the EU. It's possible the UK would offer more explicit quids pro quo. The UK would with this cooperation not only be able to get access to third party markets while in a customs union. It would get better access than it could on its own. Corbyn may be onto something here.
Minus 8 tonight in Rome.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3169070
Mr Restricted Supply of workers drives higher wages and Mrs Less competition for scarce public services would like to meet you, to understand how anyone couldn't understand that unrestricted EU immigration can make life worse for many groups.
I thought we'd moved on from this, anyway, Mr Gardenwalker wrote a very good post ceding the 'immigration is always wonderful for everyone' position a couple of weeks ago.
I even include immigration in that.
We were told the public didn't care about the Corbyn "Czech spy story" - well guess what - only 3% of people are even aware of the story - irrespective of what they think of it.
The detail of what Corbyn said today won't matter in the slightest. All that could matter is if there is a perception that he is moving in a way that people like / dislike.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK?original_referer=http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/03/04/the-latest-batch-of-ashcroft-marginals-polling-finds/&tw_i=573192912663650304&tw_p=tweetembed
Yes, that's a valid point. It was the "accurately judge" that caught my eye.
There's trouble brewing though - either immigration won't come down as promised post-brexit or if it does come down it isn't going to improve the lot of anyone.
' Indeed, a remainer friend of mine has just lived through this. She's had Nigerian neighbours for the last two years, they've sold and an "investor" bought the house who has rented it out as a HMO to five Romanians. A few days ago she said "I get why people voted leave" and was asking for advice on how to have the landlord sanctioned and the people evicted. Her reasons - they are loud, they play music late into the night, they shout at each other all the time, they leave rubbish out on the front lawn, they are constantly drunk and they "leer" at her when she leaves the house if they are on the front lawn.
She used to wear "living next to Africans" as a badge of non-racist/leaver honour. '
Now think what might be the effect when its not five Romanians moving into the house next door but five thousand East European Roma moving into a town like Rotherham.
The Americans aren't particularly (at least certainly not under Trump). Look at how they are attempting to "renegotiate" NAFTA, and how they've decided their existing FTA with South Korea doesn't work. And even when they do deign to enter into FTAs, the requirements for US dominated ISDS to police them make them pretty unattractive,
The Chinese aren't that keen either: their deal with Switzerland is extremely one-sided, for example. They also demand control of dispute resolution mechanisms. And India is a classic example of government being captured by producer interests.
The countries that generally are (quite) pro-Free Trade are mid-sized countries. So, South Korea, Canada, Switzerland, and Australia to name a few. The issue here is that the EU already has deals with three of those four, so our deals there will largely only replicate what we already have.
I really don't understand why Dr Fox has ruled out membership of EFTA. (Not EFTA/EEA, just simple EFTA.) It comes with a host of deals with Canada, etc. It does not preclude us making our own arrangements. It could even begin to generate a European counterweight to the EU.
Even Leavers think Leavers are simpletons.
I hope it improves markedely within the next month - going on a Med cruise at the end of March. Brrr!
"They believe the rather simplistic idea that if the immigrants were not there..."
These are simplistic (and wrong) ideas but I would not call you a simpleton. There are far too many other terms I could use for you.
People are fed up, unhappy, not being paid enough, insecure, scared. They know that whoever they vote for at a GE, the government gets in (and they have the t-shirt to prove it), so given one chance to hit back at The Man, they took it. And who can blame them.
The tragi-comic element is seeing people who believe themselves to cut a more intellectual dash floundering when pushed as to why they voted Leave. What hurts almost more than anything is to have David Davis (David Davis!) tell them that they got it wrong and that we were sovereign all along, just that it didn't feel like it.
As you can see from this evening, even arch PB Leavers think Leavers are a bunch of simpletons.
Saying an idea is simplistic is not the same as saying people are simpletons. It is only arrogant elitists like you who believe they are the same.
As I said you have some simplistic ideas as well. You display them daily on here.
You said that the Leavers believed a simplistic idea. Ergo they are simpletons.
What I believe about the economy and GDP (pause for chuckle at your adoption of the hard left's dismissal of GDP as being any kind of relevant measure) you would take 10,000 years to understand.