politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Setting the scene for the May local elections –
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Setting the scene for the May local elections –
Thanks to David Cowling, former head of political research at the BBC, for compiling this table.
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It should be Con -484 Lab +601 Lib +90
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_local_elections,_1980
For the early missing years wikipedia gives:
1978 Con +275 Lab -461 Lib -163
1979 Con -423 Lab +766 Lib +136
1981 Con -1193 Lab +988 Lib +306
1982 Con -98 Lab -225 All +395
Con +238
LibD -1788
Since then, in the 4n+2 round, Con are all of -12 out of c4200 seats being contested (Lab is +395, LD -519 and Others +182).
'Scots Tories 'will launch bid to form next government'
Ruth Davidson said her party hoped to win the 2021 Holyrood elections.'
https://tinyurl.com/y9efsptv
If silly analogies from the UK and such unwillingness to even contemplate even some give and take from the EU (which even in a strong position they would need to do) is what we can expect, it does seem like the sensible thing to do would be to declare right now that there is no possibility of a deal, and for each side to stop bothering and focus solely on mitigating measures.
If you are saying his comments are merely reinforcing 'Brexit means Brexit' then I assume you are also not concerned about the negotiations, since there is only one outcome. In which case why have people been moaning about the government doing a poor job of it since there is only one outcome?
Clearly the options are hard exit, or remain and that is it. If that is the choice you want, fine, it is now the one we have. If that means a terrible end for this country that's, well, terrible, but we can at least stop pretending negotiating has a point if 'brexit means brexit' means we cannot ask for anything.
Neil Kinnock's Labour won huge numbers of council seats for example in 1986, just a year before losing the general election by a landslide.
And Labour did even better in 1991, before losing its fourth general election in a row in 1992.
William Hague's Tories did very well in 2000 and 2001 in local elections before losing its second biggest landslide ever to Labour in 2001.
Commons returns from Easter recess on Monday 16 April - so I wonder if vote might be just before Local Elections - possibly using that as leverage with rebels?
Alternatively, if May fears defeat might the vote not just be put off until the Autumn? Is there any reason why any of the Brexit related Bills need to complete their passage so far in advance of Brexit?
Might Govt therefore just stall all legislation until negotiations much further advanced?
That isn't my preference - I've always believed that for all our government's fault and the EU commission and EU leaders' faults, everyone believed that with some give and take everyone could arrive at a deal of some kind - but as he is someone of such sense as you say, let us assume he is right and stop all this anxiety ahead of March 2019 and unequivocally state all negotiations are ceasing and both sides can stop bullshitting and start preparing for a hard exit without the distraction of pretending negotiation will achieve anything.
Tusk is all that is wrong with the EU. He’s got influence over my life but I’ve never had the chance to fire him.
His witterings anger me and just nudge me into the let’s just tell them to fuck right off column. We’ll live.
It appears that Rick Gates , former Trump aide and associate of Paul Manafort, who has turned on his former pal in a plea deal, may be about to drag Congressman Dana Rohrabacher into the messy pit. Rohrabacher has long been suspected of being in the pocket of Russian interests and may well have some questions to answer about just how entangled he is with them.
Hence it being clear the idiots are running the show on both sides.
Although that didn't stop the Polish government supporting Germany rather than Czechoslovakia in 1938.
Big mistake.
Negotiation means both sides will get something, even if one gets more out of it than the other. You and Tusk both appear to be saying we will get nothing, but we have to give them things for the transition, which isn't a negotiation.
What is slightly more concerning is that he is his masters voice. I genuinely thought that after stage one had been sorted some sort of reality had broken out. I fear that the ever more irritating actions of our remainers has got the EU back into lala land. Hey ho.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Kawczynski
It would be ironic if the Brexit supporting MP born in Poland had berated a British born person who was suffering hard times.
From Wiki "In October 2013, Kawczynski received widespread press attention for berating a one-legged wheelchair user for begging outside the Houses of Parliament."
Surely a man after your own heart another_Richard!
The EU objective is stability of the longlterm project. We do notnwant to be in the SM or CU, or to have the relationship of accession countries. More like Belarus than anything.
I have a lot of time for Vince Cable but I think he is a bit too old to be leading a tiny parliamentary party that is unlikely to be in Government for a very long time. What the LD need is somebody with youth and vigour, not someone drawing their pension, whilst he exudes stability and experience the LD are not really electorally in a place to capitalize on this. They need a risk taker like Charles Kennedy i.e. opposing the Iraq war.
I imagine they'll rerun the weighting exercise post-Brexit and reallocate votes accordingly. It's going to be quite hard to form a blocking minority against the EZ countries once we're gone.
https://www.yorkmix.com/news/york-council-crisis-7-things-need-know-current-shambles/
1 we want the U.K. to be clear about what it wants so we can say no.
2. We must say no because making others less hesitant about going down this path could be fatal to the project.
3. We can always count on the broadcast media, some of the press and remainer orientated MPs to support our position, no matter how absurd or self defeating.
4. This will ultimately push the U.K. into agreeing a deal which addresses our budget crisis.
5. Well, that’s it really.
The people who I might potentially lose my temper with are the lard-arses who drive around supermarkets in little buggy cars.
Congratulations.
https://www.twitter.com/sarahwollaston/status/966828020374888448
Communist Party of Britain?
Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist)?
Communist Party of Great Britain (Marxist-Leninist)?
Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee)?
New Communist Party of Britain?
Revolutionary Communist Group?
Revolutionary Communist Party of Britain (Marxist-Leninist)?
Or even further afield?!
Wouldn't it be easier to buy at the supermarket ?
Fair play to Tusk, he's doing his best to save us from another May-is-really-from-Mars speech next Friday. As a great man once said, 'Everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the face'.
Unless Mi6 were using the spy who loved manholes for our own interests.
It is a very sad day for millions of genuine labour party members who must be in despair
Abject surrender is so undignified.
Heck, the webpage for the SIS not only has the logo include MI6, it has a video entitled 'SIS(MI6) at a glance' and then gives up the pretense, as the 'latest' crawl of updates shows stories like 'MI6 chief does X' and 'MI6 does y'.
The SIS at least has their url actually be www.sis etc. whereas the security service don't bother and just have www.MI-5 etc.
There are 800k in total aren't there
Time for an early night
xx
It'll happen again. That's how EU negotiations always work. They always run into a crisis. There is always a moment when they look hopeless. And they always end up agreeing a fudge, just enough to keep the show on the road. Expect a deal with lots of loose ends, to be haggled over for years.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
By the way, I'm the newly-elected Secretary of Surrey SW CLP. Such power, and one so young. Our total number of elected councillors is, uh, zero.