politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB shifts a notch on Brexit and backs a CON rebel Commons
Comments
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This is Trumpian trade logic.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course it is not optimised for us. If it were we not have a massive and growing trade deficit with the rest of the EU which more than wipes our our trade surplus with the rest of the world.TOPPING said:Yebbut the thing that is sometimes easy to forget, is that we have an optimised for us trade deal in the bag for nearly half our exports. That is the idiocy of trying to jettison that one and create new ones with other countries (including, of course, the EU). It is truly baby and bathwater territory.
You can optimise your sovereignty by being entirely self-sufficient and not trading with anyone at all, but not many people would like the outcome.0 -
Bearing in mind the previous thread, the elephant in the room is that we are heading for a second referendum, and most of the things that are said are positioning for that. Labour are setting impossible tests because they want to be able to reject the deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, in fact inasmuch as John McDonnell makes any sense at all, he seems to be advocating a very asymmetric relationship. Personally I think it's the least damaging of the poor options potentially available, but we shouldn't kid ourselves that it's anything other than signing up to EU rules (and probably third-party tariffs) on those items covered by any 'customs arrangement' or 'a customs union', or whatever you want to call it.williamglenn said:
The only way to avoid an asymmetric relationship is to remain in the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:Speaking at an event on Thursday, McDonnell said Labour was “not supporting membership of ‘the’ customs union, but we are looking at ‘a’ customs union”.
“The reason we’re saying ‘a’ customs union is because we don’t want the same asymmetric relationship that Turkey have got,” he said.0 -
Since nobody seems to be able to say quite what “a” customs union actually is in the context of the amendment (since it would be open to negotiation), the Govt should just amend it further to append a definition which aligns with what they seek to achieve.0
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It doesn't make UK-EU trade very much easier because you still have NTBs to contend with. These could be eliminated by remaining in the single market or other agreement - a customs union alone does not facilitate the free movement of goods.NickPalmer said:
"THE" CU is linked in with the rest of the EU deal and implies regulatory identity (not convergence or non-divergence or equivalence). "A" CU merely means agreement on common tariffs to third parties, plus anything else the participants decide to include. The big plus is that it makes UK-EU trade, specifically in Ireland, very much easier. The big minus is that you can't then run off and agree different tariffs with anyone else, ever.Dura_Ace said:
We get to enjoy the May regime for a bit longer with the second one.alex. said:What is the difference between "THE" Customs Union and "A" customs union?
If we do go down this route of a customs union then we might as well remain in the single market - why would you diverge if you can't use that to your advantage internationally?
At this point we'd be doing a lot of work to in effect recreate the EU from outside its
formal structures. What is the point? We might as well stay in. I say this as someone who spent countless hours campaigning to leave.0 -
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.0 -
You need to take that up with the UK consumer. What trade arrangements (with the EU, or anyone for that matter) can you envisage which would reverse that?Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course it is not optimised for us. If it were we not have a massive and growing trade deficit with the rest of the EU which more than wipes our our trade surplus with the rest of the world.TOPPING said:
Yebbut the thing that is sometimes easy to forget, is that we have an optimised for us trade deal in the bag for nearly half our exports. That is the idiocy of trying to jettison that one and create new ones with other countries (including, of course, the EU). It is truly baby and bathwater territory.Richard_Tyndall said:
No of course not. It might increase our trade deficit if we went for a bad deal. But the important point is that currently if we want to do any sort of deal with another country it has to be via the EU who are looking to do comprehensive trade deals which satisfy as much of the divergent needs of the 28 member states as possible. This inevitably means that such a deal will not be optimised for the UK.TOPPING said:
Are you absolutely sure that a FTA with, say, China won't simply increase our trade deficit? The only growth area for UK exports to there is in services.Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep I would agree withlike the WTO.Sandpit said:
Providrobably pass.alex. said:
So what is the Brexiteers objection to it? (or is it just about semantics ie. what it is called?).Sandpit said:
A Customs Union doesn’t exist yet, it would be for us to negotiate it. The CU very much already exists.alex. said:
Those talking about A CU really mean a comprehensive customs agreement without remaining in The CU.
If the Govt put a counter amendment rejecting "A Customs union" but advocating "a comprehensive customs agreement out side of The Customs Union" would it pass?
The ability to strike our own deals - and they need not be comprehensive FTAs - means that we can negotiate with China (or any other country) on the basis of specific areas that are good for us and for them.0 -
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That was a vote on process of course not substance. We will see how many rebel on actual policy detail.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
This amendment sounds like a Turkey to me. And Turkey only agreed to such a one sided customs union deal as they were desperate to join the EU - we of course are supposed to be leaving it.0 -
Not quite. We will NEED to have trade agreements with third parties whether we are in a customs union or not. The main reason for referring to A customs union is deliberate confusion. There needs to be a new document as THE current one only applies to EU members. So formally it is A different union with effectively the same terms.MaxPB said:
The Customs Union precludes outside trade relationships without EU involvement, "A" customs union doesn't.alex. said:What is the difference between "THE" Customs Union and "A" customs union?
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Looking forward to cherry picking and having my cake plus eating it.0
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Is the government still going with the three baskets approach?0
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Indeed. Much easier to justify rebelling when substance isn't the issue.brendan16 said:
That was a vote on process of course not substance. We will see how many rebel on actual policy detail.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
This amendment sounds like a Turkey to me. And Turkey only agreed to such a one sided customs union deal as they were desperate to join the EU - we of course are supposed to be leaving it.
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Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)0 -
Deficits or surpluses with particular countries or groups of countries, or in certain product areas, are to be expected in any circumstances. It is the overall current account balance that matters - and that is corrected by movements in the exchange rate.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course it is not optimised for us. If it were we not have a massive and growing trade deficit with the rest of the EU which more than wipes our our trade surplus with the rest of the world.TOPPING said:
Yebbut the thing that is sometimes easy to forget, is that we have an optimised for us trade deal in the bag for nearly half our exports. That is the idiocy of trying to jettison that one and create new ones with other countries (including, of course, the EU). It is truly baby and bathwater territory.Richard_Tyndall said:
No of course not. It might increase our trade deficit if we went for a bad deal. But the important point is that currently if we want to do any sort of deal with another country it has to be via the EU who are looking to do comprehensive trade deals which satisfy as much of the divergent needs of the 28 member states as possible. This inevitably means that such a deal will not be optimised for the UK.
The ability to strike our own deals - and they need not be comprehensive FTAs - means that we can negotiate with China (or any other country) on the basis of specific areas that are good for us and for them.
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I agree with what a few people have suggested, Labour will have done some private polling and decided that they can defeat the government on this without taking any pain.El_Capitano said:
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)0 -
A customs union will not eliminate all barriers, but the certainty that no duties will be payable makes a big difference to the sustainability of cross-border supply chains.chrisoxon said:
It doesn't make UK-EU trade very much easier because you still have NTBs to contend with. These could be eliminated by remaining in the single market or other agreement - a customs union alone does not facilitate the free movement of goods.NickPalmer said:
"THE" CU is linked in with the rest of the EU deal and implies regulatory identity (not convergence or non-divergence or equivalence). "A" CU merely means agreement on common tariffs to third parties, plus anything else the participants decide to include. The big plus is that it makes UK-EU trade, specifically in Ireland, very much easier. The big minus is that you can't then run off and agree different tariffs with anyone else, ever.Dura_Ace said:
We get to enjoy the May regime for a bit longer with the second one.alex. said:What is the difference between "THE" Customs Union and "A" customs union?
If we do go down this route of a customs union then we might as well remain in the single market - why would you diverge if you can't use that to your advantage internationally?
At this point we'd be doing a lot of work to in effect recreate the EU from outside its
formal structures. What is the point? We might as well stay in. I say this as someone who spent countless hours campaigning to leave.
Staying in the Single Market is only a minor step, which you seem to imply above, if you don’t care about freedom of movement from the EU. If so, you are in a very small minority of Leavers.
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IIRC, there was a Tory abstainer as well - can't remember who.El_Capitano said:
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)0 -
In a globalised world, not everyone is going to have a trade surplus. It should ebb and flow though as a systemic deficit or surplus is probably not good.geoffw said:
Deficits or surpluses with particular countries or groups of countries, or in certain product areas, are to be expected in any circumstances. It is the overall current account balance that matters - and that is corrected by movements in the exchange rate.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except of course it is not optimised for us. If it were we not have a massive and growing trade deficit with the rest of the EU which more than wipes our our trade surplus with the rest of the world.TOPPING said:
Yebbut the thing that is sometimes easy to forget, is that we have an optimised for us trade deal in the bag for nearly half our exports. That is the idiocy of trying to jettison that one and create new ones with other countries (including, of course, the EU). It is truly baby and bathwater territory.Richard_Tyndall said:
No of course not. It might increase our trade deficit if we went for a bad deal. But the important point is that currently if we want to do any sort of deal with another country it has to be via the EU who are looking to do comprehensive trade deals which satisfy as much of the divergent needs of the 28 member states as possible. This inevitably means that such a deal will not be optimised for the UK.
The ability to strike our own deals - and they need not be comprehensive FTAs - means that we can negotiate with China (or any other country) on the basis of specific areas that are good for us and for them.
However this has nowt to do with the EU.
On one hand, we love consuming too much, and the things we wish to consume tend to come from Europe.
On the other, we decimated our industrial base on the altar of the free market. So we don’t really make much (goods) the rest of the world wants, either.
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It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion0 -
And assuming that all Labour MP's back the amendment.El_Capitano said:
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)0 -
Socialism, hypnotism, patriotism, materialismwilliamglenn said:
The only way to avoid an asymmetric relationship is to remain in the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:Speaking at an event on Thursday, McDonnell said Labour was “not supporting membership of ‘the’ customs union, but we are looking at ‘a’ customs union”.
“The reason we’re saying ‘a’ customs union is because we don’t want the same asymmetric relationship that Turkey have got,” he said.
Fools making laws for the breaking of jaws
Asymmetricalism too.0 -
More like Turkish delight perhaps - or revani (Turkish semolina cake) which sounds like remaini.sarissa said:
AIUI, their 'have cake and eat it' policy is changing from Battenberg to Victoria Sponge.DanSmith said:Is the government still going with the three baskets approach?
Being in the EU customs union or being in a theoretical customs union with the EU? Do most MPs know the difference let alone most voters or what the latter means in practice as it would have to be negotiated.0 -
Using a customs union to eliminate duties is using a sledge hammer to crack a nut.RoyalBlue said:
A customs union will not eliminate all barriers, but the certainty that no duties will be payable makes a big difference to the sustainability of cross-border supply chains.chrisoxon said:
It doesn't make UK-EU trade very much easier because you still have NTBs to contend with. These could be eliminated by remaining in the single market or other agreement - a customs union alone does not facilitate the free movement of goods.NickPalmer said:
"THE" CU is linked in with the rest of the EU deal and implies regulatory identity (not convergence or non-divergence or equivalence). "A" CU merely means agreement on common tariffs to third parties, plus anything else the participants decide to include. The big plus is that it makes UK-EU trade, specifically in Ireland, very much easier. The big minus is that you can't then run off and agree different tariffs with anyone else, ever.Dura_Ace said:
We get to enjoy the May regime for a bit longer with the second one.alex. said:What is the difference between "THE" Customs Union and "A" customs union?
If we do go down this route of a customs union then we might as well remain in the single market - why would you diverge if you can't use that to your advantage internationally?
At this point we'd be doing a lot of work to in effect recreate the EU from outside its
formal structures. What is the point? We might as well stay in. I say this as someone who spent countless hours campaigning to leave.
Staying in the Single Market is only a minor step, which you seem to imply above, if you don’t care about freedom of movement from the EU. If so, you are in a very small minority of Leavers.0 -
There is nothing that says May can’t carry on trying at the same timeTheScreamingEagles said:
Under the FTPA, Parliament’s fixed five-year term can only be truncated in two ways. First, if more than two thirds of the House of Commons vote to call an election – and that means 434 of the 650 MPs, not just two thirds of those in the chamber.prh47bridge said:
I don't see anything in the FTPA that means Corbyn would get a chance to form a government.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes and no.rkrkrk said:
If she lost a vote on the customs union thing - would she have to go?TheScreamingEagles said:I still think it is more likely the ERG brings down Mrs May/The Government than the likes of Soubry and Clarke.
And would a new leader have to call a GE?
The FTPA complicates things.
The government would have to lose an explicit vote of no confidence and Corbyn would have 14 days to try and form a government.
Before the FTPA the PM did not automatically resign following loss of a confidence vote. The PM usually called an election and remained as PM until after the election (see, for example, Callaghan in 1979). They only resigned if they lost the election. Nothing in the FTPA changes that. There is no requirement for the PM to resign after losing a confidence vote. So my view is that, if May loses a confidence vote, she has 14 days to turn it around. If she cannot do so there is an election. Corbyn only gets a chance to form a government if he wins that election.
The second is more complicated. If a motion of no confidence is passed or there is a failed vote of confidence, there is a 14-day period in which to pass an act of confidence in a new government. If no such vote is passed, a new election must be held, probably a mere 17 working days later.
So it gives Corbyn the opportunity to try and form a government in those 14 days.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/not-so-fixed-term-parliaments-act0 -
You whittle down the options by a long process to a form of leaving that means staying, and hey presto, you have unity.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion0 -
So, we have to wait a week for May to shamble to the podium and say...what?
I don't wish to be unkind, but her lack of pace and inability to even pretend to be human is really irritating.0 -
The arguments about the EU will carry on and on and on for decades, it won't end in 2019 or at the end of the transition.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion0 -
The figure of 7 Tory rebels needed (unless I've misread Mr Mortimer) assumes that Hoey and Field vote against the amendment, and all other Labour MPs vote for it. That seems the most plausible outcome given previous voting records.Sean_F said:
And assuming that all Labour MP's back the amendment.El_Capitano said:
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)0 -
Nope.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion
It has retoxified the Conservative Party. There are many Conservative MPs who are not now or never were toxic and hence were drawn to a non-toxic Party. In that sense, in a re-toxified Party, those non-toxic MPs are part of a different party to the toxic/Kipperites.0 -
That is relying upon all Labour MPs except Field and Hoey backing the party. Are you so sure for example that Kelvin Hopkins - who was a leading Brexit campaigner and is currently suspended from the Labour party - will choose to support Corbyn over this?El_Capitano said:
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)0 -
On those numbers, I think the government has a majority of 4.El_Capitano said:
The figure of 7 Tory rebels needed (unless I've misread Mr Mortimer) assumes that Hoey and Field vote against the amendment, and all other Labour MPs vote for it. That seems the most plausible outcome given previous voting records.Sean_F said:
And assuming that all Labour MP's back the amendment.El_Capitano said:
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)0 -
Well, that is my Brexit prediction proved wrong.
I thought that the aviation excrement would hit the air conditioning in March....williamglenn said:twitter.com/iandunt/status/966964336261464065
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Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.0
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OT - in Selkirkshire by-election, coalition of Anybody but Ruth Davidson's Candidate elected the popular local independent first-time candidate Caroline Penman.
It took until the seventh transfer of votes to reach a decision.
SCon took 43.5% of the vote in May 2017.0 -
Vulnerable women are most likely being "extensively" abused across the UK and ministers need to urgently review sex exploitation laws, a report says.
David Spicer led a review in the wake of Operation Sanctuary which saw 18 people jailed for the sexual abuse of young women groomed in Newcastle.
The operation identified about 700 victims in total across the Northumbria Police area, 108 in Newcastle.
In the Newcastle case, most of the men were British-born but all came from Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indian, Iraqi, Iranian or Turkish communities.
Think tank the Quillam Foundation, which focuses on counter-extremism, said 84% of the 264 offenders convicted of grooming between 2005 and 2017 were of south Asian heritage.
Mr Spicer said the perpetrator he spoke to "displayed no regret" and "spoke in a derogatory manner about a lack of morals in British girls".
He also said the government needs to research the "profiles, motivations and cultural and background influences of perpetrators of sexual exploitation".
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-431535560 -
I'd add Justine Greening to the "at risk" list now, as well. Although she won't be quite as bitter as Nicky Morgan.Mortimer said:
IIRC, there was a Tory abstainer as well - can't remember who.El_Capitano said:
Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Sarah Wollaston, Jonathan Djanogly, and Stephen Hammond have signed the amendment.Mortimer said:
I suspect they'll win a vote, but only by one or two votes.GIN1138 said:
If they think they will lose.. Almost certainly.El_Capitano said:
The numbers are looking very tight for May. Wonder if she's still pursuing the policy of "oh, we might lose, let's not bring it to a vote"?
Remember how slim the Govt defeat was on the only amendment to the Brexit bill that passed the commons: 309 to 305. That was with 11 Tory Mps rebelling. That was with Hoey and Field voting with the Govt, which I suspect they'd do again.
Provided no more than 7 rebel, we'll squeak it.
Dominic Grieve has said he'll vote for it. Ken Clarke is nailed on.
That's seven rebels already. Only one more - Antoinette Sandbach, for example - and the vote is lost. (If Labour formally backs it, that is, which isn't guaranteed.)
Probably Heidi Allen is another.0 -
They're taking their lead from their elusive leader whose relationship with difficult questions is very much that of the mechanical hare with greyhounds. This is what she looks like when the mechanism breaks down.AlastairMeeks said:What will the Scottish cohort of Remainy Conservative MPs do about this "A customs union" amendment? Has anyone interviewed Ruth Davidson yet?
https://twitter.com/GAPonsonby/status/966388014955028480
This is the 'full' statement.
https://youtu.be/wfMhuwnAUZ80 -
I can't agree with that. Removing the whip is fine but my belief is that all votes should be free votes so I am hardly going to agree with punishing MPs by deselection. That should be a matter entirely for their local constituencies. Even in cases where I disagree with the MPs concerned there is a fundamental principle involved.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
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Just for clarification, is this the policy in the 2015 manifesto, the policy in the 2017 manifesto, the policy from last November, the policy from last December, the policy from last week, the policy from this week or tomorrow's policy?Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
0 -
The idea that Brexit is toxic to any but a tiny minority like yourself is just ludicrous.TOPPING said:
Nope.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion
It has retoxified the Conservative Party. There are many Conservative MPs who are not now or never were toxic and hence were drawn to a non-toxic Party. In that sense, in a re-toxified Party, those non-toxic MPs are part of a different party to the toxic/Kipperites.0 -
OT - It is of course possible for the government to lose the Soubry amendment vote. However, they'd then win on a vote of no confidence as all of the Tory rebels would then back the government. So I don't see how it brings the government down.0
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That’s quite a report, obviously didn’t go through the usual political correctness filter before it was published.David_Evershed said:Vulnerable women are most likely being "extensively" abused across the UK and ministers need to urgently review sex exploitation laws, a report says.
David Spicer led a review in the wake of Operation Sanctuary which saw 18 people jailed for the sexual abuse of young women groomed in Newcastle.
The operation identified about 700 victims in total across the Northumbria Police area, 108 in Newcastle.
In the Newcastle case, most of the men were British-born but all came from Bangladeshi, Pakistani, Indian, Iraqi, Iranian or Turkish communities.
Think tank the Quillam Foundation, which focuses on counter-extremism, said 84% of the 264 offenders convicted of grooming between 2005 and 2017 were of south Asian heritage.
Mr Spicer said the perpetrator he spoke to "displayed no regret" and "spoke in a derogatory manner about a lack of morals in British girls".
He also said the government needs to research the "profiles, motivations and cultural and background influences of perpetrators of sexual exploitation".
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-431535560 -
Paul Masterton, one of the Telegraph's Mutineers, is tweeting but not about this. It looks like they're keeping their powder dry for now.Theuniondivvie said:
They're taking their lead from their elusive leader whose relationship with difficult questions is very much that of the mechanical hare with greyhounds. This is what she looks like when the mechanism breaks down.AlastairMeeks said:What will the Scottish cohort of Remainy Conservative MPs do about this "A customs union" amendment? Has anyone interviewed Ruth Davidson yet?
https://twitter.com/GAPonsonby/status/966388014955028480
This is the 'full' statement.
https://youtu.be/wfMhuwnAUZ80 -
The bubble world of political betting.Richard_Tyndall said:
The idea that Brexit is toxic to any but a tiny minority like yourself is just ludicrous.TOPPING said:
Nope.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion
It has retoxified the Conservative Party. There are many Conservative MPs who are not now or never were toxic and hence were drawn to a non-toxic Party. In that sense, in a re-toxified Party, those non-toxic MPs are part of a different party to the toxic/Kipperites.0 -
This is fundamental to the UK Government's negotiating strategy and has been painstakingly decided by a balanced Brexit sub-committee (and ultimately by the Cabinet) that represents all strands of party opinion.Richard_Tyndall said:
I can't agree with that. Removing the whip is fine but my belief is that all votes should be free votes so I am hardly going to agree with punishing MPs by deselection. That should be a matter entirely for their local constituencies. Even in cases where I disagree with the MPs concerned there is a fundamental principle involved.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
Conservative MPs who take advantage of a hung parliament to conspire with the Opposition to overthrow it regardless, and bind the Government's hands, are guilty of betrayal and have no place in the Party.0 -
On the party being split, there are more of us then there are of them. Eventually the last EUphiles will be removed from the party and there will be no split. The last EUsceptic split was 93 MPs the last EUphile split was 12 MPs.0
-
When you have John Redwood, Bill Cash, JRM et al at the forefront of policy decision-making then you have a toxic party.Richard_Tyndall said:
The idea that Brexit is toxic to any but a tiny minority like yourself is just ludicrous.TOPPING said:
Nope.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion
It has retoxified the Conservative Party. There are many Conservative MPs who are not now or never were toxic and hence were drawn to a non-toxic Party. In that sense, in a re-toxified Party, those non-toxic MPs are part of a different party to the toxic/Kipperites.0 -
For every policy ?Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
0 -
Hey, we're keeping it real on the mean streets of the Internet. We are the everypersons of this great Kingdom. Totally street.Tykejohnno said:
The bubble world of political betting.Richard_Tyndall said:
The idea that Brexit is toxic to any but a tiny minority like yourself is just ludicrous.TOPPING said:
Nope.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion
It has retoxified the Conservative Party. There are many Conservative MPs who are not now or never were toxic and hence were drawn to a non-toxic Party. In that sense, in a re-toxified Party, those non-toxic MPs are part of a different party to the toxic/Kipperites.
Sadly, I have no idea what real people are thinking; no one of my acquaintance or my family members ever talk about it, or evinces any desire to do so if I raise the subject. My beloved will occasionally tolerate me musing on the topic, but not for long.0 -
Odd that they have no problem with their own morals - being molesters, rapists, abusers, etc.David_Evershed said:...
Think tank the Quillam Foundation, which focuses on counter-extremism, said 84% of the 264 offenders convicted of grooming between 2005 and 2017 were of south Asian heritage.
Mr Spicer said the perpetrator he spoke to "displayed no regret" and "spoke in a derogatory manner about a lack of morals in British girls".
Other peoples's morals are obviously more important ...0 -
2017 Manifesto:AlastairMeeks said:
Just for clarification, is this the policy in the 2015 manifesto, the policy in the 2017 manifesto, the policy from last November, the policy from last December, the policy from last week, the policy from this week or tomorrow's policy?Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
As we leave the EU, we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union but we will seek a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement.
So we'll be leaving THE customs union. Agreement/union (with the preceeding indefinite article) looks to be the point of the pinhead...
However do we have time to arrange "a" customs union with the EU before March next year ?0 -
It's balanced by having Anna Soubry saying "sling 'em out". In a way Brexit has just brought the whole country into the battle for the soul of the Conservative party.TOPPING said:
When you have John Redwood, Bill Cash, JRM et al at the forefront of policy decision-making then you have a toxic party.Richard_Tyndall said:
The idea that Brexit is toxic to any but a tiny minority like yourself is just ludicrous.TOPPING said:
Nope.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion
It has retoxified the Conservative Party. There are many Conservative MPs who are not now or never were toxic and hence were drawn to a non-toxic Party. In that sense, in a re-toxified Party, those non-toxic MPs are part of a different party to the toxic/Kipperites.0 -
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
0 -
Max is confusing rebels with Remainers. Plenty of the latter have never and never will rebel. Which is of course not to say that they are not biding their time for events.rkrkrk said:
Didn’t most Tory MPs back Remain?MaxPB said:On the party being split, there are more of us then there are of them. Eventually the last EUphiles will be removed from the party and there will be no split. The last EUsceptic split was 93 MPs the last EUphile split was 12 MPs.
0 -
Will the DUP MPs vote for or against a customs union?
Do they support the government or do they think a customs union would help prevent a border being set up between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland?0 -
They backed their party leader. A very different thing.rkrkrk said:
Didn’t most Tory MPs back Remain?MaxPB said:On the party being split, there are more of us then there are of them. Eventually the last EUphiles will be removed from the party and there will be no split. The last EUsceptic split was 93 MPs the last EUphile split was 12 MPs.
0 -
-
The Honourable Ian Paisley Jr previous statement was No surrender to Brussels I believe. The Gov't will be able to count on their support.David_Evershed said:Will the DUP MPs vote for or against a customs union?
Do they support the government or do they think a customs union would help prevent a border being set up between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland?0 -
It was a majority of Conservative voters voting Leave against the advice of the then party leader which was pivotal to the Leave victory.williamglenn said:
It's balanced by having Anna Soubry saying "sling 'em out". In a way Brexit has just brought the whole country into the battle for the soul of the Conservative party.TOPPING said:
When you have John Redwood, Bill Cash, JRM et al at the forefront of policy decision-making then you have a toxic party.Richard_Tyndall said:
The idea that Brexit is toxic to any but a tiny minority like yourself is just ludicrous.TOPPING said:
Nope.Charles said:
It has.TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember being told prior to the referendum that only a Leave victory would unite the Tory party.FF43 said:I assume the government would do a deal with their soft Brexit rebels* and water down their regulatory and customs proposals, or most likely push it out until next year when the second cliff edge will have its effect.
* noteworthy that you have to specify which group of Tory rebels you are referring to.
The arguments are about the form of leaving now - that heals quicker than a yes/no discussion
It has retoxified the Conservative Party. There are many Conservative MPs who are not now or never were toxic and hence were drawn to a non-toxic Party. In that sense, in a re-toxified Party, those non-toxic MPs are part of a different party to the toxic/Kipperites.
If only a majority of UKIP voters had voted Leave then Remain would have won comfortably0 -
Not much love here for these brave Tory MPs0
-
They are true patriots.Jonathan said:Not much love here for these brave Tory MPs
I love a sovereign Parliament in action.0 -
Doesn't that also mean that Churchill would never have been PM?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
0 -
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
0 -
Churchill was a dirty double rat.Stark_Dawning said:
Doesn't that also mean that Churchill would never have been PM?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
You can’t trust rats.0 -
Yes, I broadly agree. It would be a compromise between Leavers and Remainers, formally leaving (giving a potential to move away in time) while remaining in reality inside in most respects for now. It would kick down the road the question of whether and how far we would actually want to be really divergent.chrisoxon said:
It doesn't make UK-EU trade very much easier because you still have NTBs to contend with. These could be eliminated by remaining in the single market or other agreement - a customs union alone does not facilitate the free movement of goods.
If we do go down this route of a customs union then we might as well remain in the single market - why would you diverge if you can't use that to your advantage internationally?
At this point we'd be doing a lot of work to in effect recreate the EU from outside its
formal structures. What is the point? We might as well stay in. I say this as someone who spent countless hours campaigning to leave.
I'd suggest that this is May's normally modus operandi - split differences, seek a fudge, postpone hard choices - but also that it's perhaps close to what most people want: don't actually reverse the referendum, but don't do anything drastic for now. It is also close to the Parliamentary arithmetic.0 -
We really need the LIKE button backTheScreamingEagles said:
They are true patriots.Jonathan said:Not much love here for these brave Tory MPs
I love a sovereign Parliament in action.
0 -
They voted against their own government’s Queen Speech.Elliot said:
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
So much worse.0 -
What they mean by "lack of morals" is "not Muslim". I grew up in the Muslim community. While most Muslims are decent, kind-hearted people, there is an Islam nationalistic subset that regards non-Muslim girls as "kuffar scum". They do not dress modestly, showing their arms, legs, hair etc so deserve what they get. Often they will justify it by referring to how non-Muslim women were treated as sex slaves under the Rashidun Caliphs.Beverley_C said:
Odd that they have no problem with their own morals - being molesters, rapists, abusers, etc.David_Evershed said:...
Think tank the Quillam Foundation, which focuses on counter-extremism, said 84% of the 264 offenders convicted of grooming between 2005 and 2017 were of south Asian heritage.
Mr Spicer said the perpetrator he spoke to "displayed no regret" and "spoke in a derogatory manner about a lack of morals in British girls".
Other peoples's morals are obviously more important ...0 -
There's certainly a moral case for Mr Corbyn to try to form a government in the case of TMay losing a vote of no confidence.Should he be able to secure a working arrangement of some sort with the LDs,SNP and Greens,he would represent 52% of those who voted in GE2017,a good basis for the validation of a minority government.Some might say it's "the Will of The People".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results0 -
Four MPs out of the SCon cohort have either supported or signed the ERG 'No to vassalage, yes to buccaneering' letter which seems quite a high proportion, particularly since they're from constituencies that had strongish remain votes.AlastairMeeks said:
Paul Masterton, one of the Telegraph's Mutineers, is tweeting but not about this. It looks like they're keeping their powder dry for now.Theuniondivvie said:
They're taking their lead from their elusive leader whose relationship with difficult questions is very much that of the mechanical hare with greyhounds. This is what she looks like when the mechanism breaks down.AlastairMeeks said:What will the Scottish cohort of Remainy Conservative MPs do about this "A customs union" amendment? Has anyone interviewed Ruth Davidson yet?
https://twitter.com/GAPonsonby/status/966388014955028480
This is the 'full' statement.
https://youtu.be/wfMhuwnAUZ80 -
Amazing how much of this could have been avoided if Cameron's referendum had just been more specific about what we were voting for.0
-
It's interesting how many people have suddenly started saying they're bored/exhausted/fed up with Brexit. A definite change in mood in the last few days.0
-
I'm not sure. I think this negotiation is more important than any single year's legislative agenda.TheScreamingEagles said:
They voted against their own government’s Queen Speech.Elliot said:
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
So much worse.0 -
True, though I expect the new Tory Leader of the Opposition would relish fighting a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP, LDs and Greens at the next general electionvolcanopete said:There's certainly a moral case for Mr Corbyn to try to form a government in the case of TMay losing a vote of no confidence.Should he be able to secure a working arrangement of some sort with the LDs,SNP and Greens,he would represent 52% of those who voted in GE2017,a good basis for the validation of a minority government.Some might say it's "the Will of The People".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results0 -
All very well Nick, except this particular road has brick wall across it in March 2019. Cans kicked hard enough simply bounce off that wallNickPalmer said:...It would kick down the road the question of whether and how far we would actually want to be really divergent.
I'd suggest that this is May's normally modus operandi0 -
Suspect this is why arch-Brexiters are really so concerned about the transition period. It's essentially a tunnel through that wall for certain issues, into the vast open steppes of vague timescales and potential fudges.Beverley_C said:
All very well Nick, except this particular road has brick wall across it in March 2019. Cans kicked hard enough simply bounce off that wallNickPalmer said:...It would kick down the road the question of whether and how far we would actually want to be really divergent.
I'd suggest that this is May's normally modus operandi0 -
Your rebels: good. Hostile rebels: bad. The line of thought is simple enough, I grant you.Elliot said:
I'm not sure. I think this negotiation is more important than any single year's legislative agenda.TheScreamingEagles said:
They voted against their own government’s Queen Speech.Elliot said:
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
So much worse.0 -
Ok.Elliot said:
I'm not sure. I think this negotiation is more important than any single year's legislative agenda.TheScreamingEagles said:
They voted against their own government’s Queen Speech.Elliot said:
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
So much worse.
So following on with your premise, why do you hate a sovereign Parliament ?
I was assured that’s what the referendum was about and nowt to do with immigration.0 -
Indeed. And May would remain PM whilst she did so. Unless she resigns, Corbyn cannot become PM. Even if Corbyn managed to put a coalition together, May can simply sit tight and force a general election. Unless you think the Queen would force May to resign in this situation.Charles said:
There is nothing that says May can’t carry on trying at the same timeTheScreamingEagles said:
Under the FTPA, Parliament’s fixed five-year term can only be truncated in two ways. First, if more than two thirds of the House of Commons vote to call an election – and that means 434 of the 650 MPs, not just two thirds of those in the chamber.prh47bridge said:
I don't see anything in the FTPA that means Corbyn would get a chance to form a government.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes and no.rkrkrk said:
If she lost a vote on the customs union thing - would she have to go?TheScreamingEagles said:I still think it is more likely the ERG brings down Mrs May/The Government than the likes of Soubry and Clarke.
And would a new leader have to call a GE?
The FTPA complicates things.
The government would have to lose an explicit vote of no confidence and Corbyn would have 14 days to try and form a government.
Before the FTPA the PM did not automatically resign following loss of a confidence vote. The PM usually called an election and remained as PM until after the election (see, for example, Callaghan in 1979). They only resigned if they lost the election. Nothing in the FTPA changes that. There is no requirement for the PM to resign after losing a confidence vote. So my view is that, if May loses a confidence vote, she has 14 days to turn it around. If she cannot do so there is an election. Corbyn only gets a chance to form a government if he wins that election.
The second is more complicated. If a motion of no confidence is passed or there is a failed vote of confidence, there is a 14-day period in which to pass an act of confidence in a new government. If no such vote is passed, a new election must be held, probably a mere 17 working days later.
So it gives Corbyn the opportunity to try and form a government in those 14 days.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/not-so-fixed-term-parliaments-act0 -
You'd like to think that on an issue like Brexit they might have voted their conscience rather than their career.Richard_Tyndall said:
They backed their party leader. A very different thing.rkrkrk said:
Didn’t most Tory MPs back Remain?MaxPB said:On the party being split, there are more of us then there are of them. Eventually the last EUphiles will be removed from the party and there will be no split. The last EUsceptic split was 93 MPs the last EUphile split was 12 MPs.
0 -
I saw a theory recently that some of the motivation for the Leave was a rejection of complexity.AlastairMeeks said:The line of thought is simple enough, I grant you.
Life was simpler when everybody you met spoke English (only)
Life was simpler when our passports were Blue.
It would be simpler to use the NHS if the waiting rooms were empty.
A Free trade deal with the EU will be the simplest in history. We can get it done in an afternoon.
If that is true, it begs the question what happens when Brexit increases the complexity of life in almost every area.0 -
Who elects Parliament?TheScreamingEagles said:
Ok.Elliot said:
I'm not sure. I think this negotiation is more important than any single year's legislative agenda.TheScreamingEagles said:
They voted against their own government’s Queen Speech.Elliot said:
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
So much worse.
So following on with your premise, why do you hate a sovereign Parliament ?
I was assured that’s what the referendum was about and nowt to do with immigration.0 -
Who ?williamglenn said:It's interesting how many people have suddenly started saying they're bored/exhausted/fed up with Brexit. A definite change in mood in the last few days.
0 -
I think this also partially explains the Anglosphere envy. People look at countries like Australia and New Zealand through a romanticised lens and assume life is so much simpler there, and they don't have some European commissioner regulating their bananas.Scott_P said:
I saw a theory recently that some of the motivation for the Leave was a rejection of complexity.AlastairMeeks said:The line of thought is simple enough, I grant you.
Life was simpler when everybody you met spoke English (only)
Life was simpler when our passports were Blue.
It would be simpler to see the NHS if the waiting rooms were empty.
A Free trade deal with the EU will be the simplest in history. We can get it done in an afternoon.
If that is true, it begs the question what happens when Brexit increases the complexity of life in almost every area.0 -
I'm not confusing anything, there are Tory MPs who have voted for Brexit and Tory MPs who have voted against. Last time there were 12 of your lot. Not exactly the earth shattering figure that is being presented.TOPPING said:
Max is confusing rebels with Remainers. Plenty of the latter have never and never will rebel. Which is of course not to say that they are not biding their time for events.rkrkrk said:
Didn’t most Tory MPs back Remain?MaxPB said:On the party being split, there are more of us then there are of them. Eventually the last EUphiles will be removed from the party and there will be no split. The last EUsceptic split was 93 MPs the last EUphile split was 12 MPs.
0 -
There is a live test of more or less this scenario going on in New Zealand right now. I think Labour would head into a definite poll lead here if it happened, at the expense of Lib Dem and (In Scotland) SNP share.HYUFD said:
True, though I expect the new Tory Leader of the Opposition would relish fighting a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP, LDs and Greens at the next general electionvolcanopete said:There's certainly a moral case for Mr Corbyn to try to form a government in the case of TMay losing a vote of no confidence.Should he be able to secure a working arrangement of some sort with the LDs,SNP and Greens,he would represent 52% of those who voted in GE2017,a good basis for the validation of a minority government.Some might say it's "the Will of The People".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/01/newshub-poll-labour-soars-to-popularity-not-seen-for-a-decade.html0 -
https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/966971930631909376Pulpstar said:
Who ?williamglenn said:It's interesting how many people have suddenly started saying they're bored/exhausted/fed up with Brexit. A definite change in mood in the last few days.
https://twitter.com/OliverNorgrove/status/966981945392541697
https://twitter.com/WomaninHavana/status/9669324842387947520 -
I think we have to calm down and reflect a bit. Parliament gotta parliament.
I've said this before, forgive me for repeating this; as long as we keep following democratic processes, then in the long term, it doesn't really matter whether we're in or out of the EU. The health of our democracy is more important.0 -
To be fair, our own political processes- which can include things like deselection- are at least entirely under our control. So I don't think there's anything inconsistent about the "sovereignty" argument on that level. I don't think Leavers were every really interested in parliament vs. government sovereignty, no matter what the terminology they used was.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ok.Elliot said:
I'm not sure. I think this negotiation is more important than any single year's legislative agenda.TheScreamingEagles said:
They voted against their own government’s Queen Speech.Elliot said:
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
So much worse.
So following on with your premise, why do you hate a sovereign Parliament ?
I was assured that’s what the referendum was about and nowt to do with immigration.
For people who are really interested in fairly assessing the facts rather than just scoring points in political arguments, it's usually a good idea to imagine the sides reversed. So, Leavers, would you be happy with the whip being removed and MPs deselected if the PM and cabinet were going for an ultra-soft Brexit, and the rebels were trying to get a harder version? Close your eyes and try to really imagine that- picture the headlines, the speeches by a Remainer PM, the comment threads on sites like this. If you do that honestly and whole-heartedly, and you still come to the same conclusion, then good. And if you find you need to start shifting your argument ("oh, it's really more about not respecting the referendum than about betraying the government") then that's good too- you've discarded a bad argument and come up with a better one.0 -
Me for starters.Pulpstar said:
Who ?williamglenn said:It's interesting how many people have suddenly started saying they're bored/exhausted/fed up with Brexit. A definite change in mood in the last few days.
I’d like to go an entire week at work without having to think about Brexit.
I know we’ve made plans for a WTO/No Deal Brexit but it still terrifies me from a professional vantage.0 -
The Leavers will blame everyone else for not doing Brexit the correct way. Presumably the deportations will start soon after...Scott_P said:
I saw a theory recently that some of the motivation for the Leave was a rejection of complexity.AlastairMeeks said:The line of thought is simple enough, I grant you.
Life was simpler when everybody you met spoke English (only)
Life was simpler when our passports were Blue.
It would be simpler to use the NHS if the waiting rooms were empty.
A Free trade deal with the EU will be the simplest in history. We can get it done in an afternoon.
If that is true, it begs the question what happens when Brexit increases the complexity of life in almost every area.
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Oh. Twitter people.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/GeorgeTrefgarne/status/966971930631909376Pulpstar said:
Who ?williamglenn said:It's interesting how many people have suddenly started saying they're bored/exhausted/fed up with Brexit. A definite change in mood in the last few days.
https://twitter.com/OliverNorgrove/status/966981945392541697
https://twitter.com/WomaninHavana/status/9669324842387947520 -
Sunil_Prasannan said:
Who elects Parliament?TheScreamingEagles said:
Ok.Elliot said:
I'm not sure. I think this negotiation is more important than any single year's legislative agenda.TheScreamingEagles said:
They voted against their own government’s Queen Speech.Elliot said:
Did any of them side with the opposition to legally tie his hands in his negotiation with the EU?TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Dave had done that between 2010 and 2016 then Mrs May wouldn’t have to deal with the ERG lot.Casino_Royale said:Any Conservative MP who votes against Government policy should immediately have the whip removed, and de-selected.
So much worse.
So following on with your premise, why do you hate a sovereign Parliament ?
I was assured that’s what the referendum was about and nowt to do with immigration.
The Russians?
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First that poll is barely a few months after the general election and second the Nationals are still in front on voteshare (and almost certainly seats on that poll) and third Ardern is not Corbyn, after all she once worked for Blair.Pulpstar said:
There is a live test of more or less this scenario going on in New Zealand right now. I think Labour would head into a definite poll lead here if it happened, at the expense of Lib Dem and (In Scotland) SNP share.HYUFD said:
True, though I expect the new Tory Leader of the Opposition would relish fighting a Corbyn minority government propped up by the SNP, LDs and Greens at the next general electionvolcanopete said:There's certainly a moral case for Mr Corbyn to try to form a government in the case of TMay losing a vote of no confidence.Should he be able to secure a working arrangement of some sort with the LDs,SNP and Greens,he would represent 52% of those who voted in GE2017,a good basis for the validation of a minority government.Some might say it's "the Will of The People".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/01/newshub-poll-labour-soars-to-popularity-not-seen-for-a-decade.html
A Corbyn government would likely be as unpopular as the administration of Francois Hollande within a few years and if Hollande had stood for re election and not Macron he would have lost to the UMP candidate by a landslide0 -
Don’t worry, David Davis and Liam Fox will be in charge of the deportations.Beverley_C said:
The Leavers will blame everyone else for not doing Brexit the correct way. Presumably the deportations will start soon after...Scott_P said:
I saw a theory recently that some of the motivation for the Leave was a rejection of complexity.AlastairMeeks said:The line of thought is simple enough, I grant you.
Life was simpler when everybody you met spoke English (only)
Life was simpler when our passports were Blue.
It would be simpler to use the NHS if the waiting rooms were empty.
A Free trade deal with the EU will be the simplest in history. We can get it done in an afternoon.
If that is true, it begs the question what happens when Brexit increases the complexity of life in almost every area.
Those two cock juggling thunder twats are so incompetent they’ll end up deporting Leavers and importing loads of EU citizens.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Don’t worry, David Davis and Liam Fox will be in charge of the deportations.Beverley_C said:
The Leavers will blame everyone else for not doing Brexit the correct way. Presumably the deportations will start soon after...Scott_P said:
I saw a theory recently that some of the motivation for the Leave was a rejection of complexity.AlastairMeeks said:The line of thought is simple enough, I grant you.
Life was simpler when everybody you met spoke English (only)
Life was simpler when our passports were Blue.
It would be simpler to use the NHS if the waiting rooms were empty.
A Free trade deal with the EU will be the simplest in history. We can get it done in an afternoon.
If that is true, it begs the question what happens when Brexit increases the complexity of life in almost every area.
Those two cock juggling thunder twats are so incompetent they’ll end up deporting Leavers and importing loads of EU citizens. 0
