politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How opinion on Brexit has moved since the referendum
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The objection is that they are - or appear not be - not primarily consulting their own electorates about the proposed changes, how they should be made and when and what they should be. It appears to be more about bureaucratic tidiness than democratic accountability. Co-ordination is fine. But not at the expense of democracy.Recidivist said:
I read that, and until I got to the last paragraph I was expecting a 'and this was the light bulb moment that made me realise the EU is a perfectly normal development and nothing to be worried about'.DavidL said:My daughter voted remain and is currently doing a year in Groningen on an Erasmus scheme. A course she is doing this term is on the integration of European law. It involves a lot of politics. What she has been taught is that most of the Parliaments, at least in the western EU, are increasingly reluctant to act on their own. If they think the law should be changed in a particular area they will first check what all their neighbours are doing and what they think about it. They may run it past the Commission who can assist them in giving a wider European context and check with the European Parliament. Where possible they will seek to make the change in coordination with others.
All of this makes sense in the context of a EZ with a single currency, single interest rate and a single market. There is pressure to standardise and integrate their laws, even in areas where the EU is not currently active. My daughter, however, indicated that for the first time it made her understand where Leave were coming from (I obviously failed miserably). It all seemed incredibly remote, not particularly democratic and not something that the UK was ever going to want to adopt.
This is where the EU is going. It really has to if the Euro is going to remain stable and its membership secure. The EU we voted to leave was already on that road. Without us it is likely to travel down the integration road even faster. We will never be able to rejoin the EU that Cameron tried to sell to us in 2016. It simply will not exist.
What exactly is wrong with neighbours co-ordinating their systems so they work well together? Why is this a process you would want to oppose? Isn't it just straight forward common sense of the kind we used to think we were good at in the UK? And if that is what everyone else is doing isn't it even more important that we get involved ourselves?0 -
"nobody persecutes people from Derbyshire"NickPalmer said:
The argument, which on the whole I agree with, is that in the former case it sends a message to be frightened to everyone with a non-white skin, many of whom will already have experienced some degree of unpleasantness. In the latter case, it really doesn't send a message to everyone with a mobile phone.TheScreamingEagles said:
I made that point a while back.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that kind of thing always sounds odd to me. Would sending unknown powder to a (soon-to-be) member of the royal family be less serious if it had a politically correct note enclosed, explaining that the individual was being targeted for reasons unrelated to demography?
If someone kicks my head because they don’t like the colour of my skin or kicks my head in to steal my mobile phone it’s still going to hurt me the same.
When minorities are completely accepted and never encounter systematic victimisation, it becomes time to drop such special rules - for instance, nobody persecutes people from Derbyshire, so there's no need to give them extra protection. But we're not there yet with non-white people.
Well they wouldn't, as they know we're brilliant and from the best place in the world. Anyone born in the cesspit called Yorkshire, and especially South Yorkshire, is fair game ...
(runs for cover)0 -
I'm actively trying to be helpful to Leave supporters, identifying their task. They seem highly resistant to getting any help for some reason, even though they have proven manifestly inadequate to the task so far.TGOHF said:
Says the poster who is relying on his opponents dying of old age..AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers are abjectly failing to make any headway with either group at present - the reverse, if anything. The lack of curiosity on Leavers' part about this never ceases to surprise me.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.0 -
Polls indicate, amongst the polled public, a small shift to wrong decision.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.
Polls indicated Remain would win. Polls can often be a poor indicator of public opinion; not least given their sample size restrictions.
The only poll that mattered saw a 1m majority for Leave.
I'm eminently relaxed about Brexit becoming embedded, especially given the antics of both fervent Remainers and the EU since the Brexit vote....0 -
Despite all those antics, the public have looked at Leavers and decided that they look worse. Let that sink in.Mortimer said:
Polls indicate, amongst the polled public, a small shift to wrong decision.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.
Polls indicated Remain would win. Polls can often be a poor indicator of public opinion; not least given their sample size restrictions.
The only poll that mattered saw a 1m majority for Leave.
I'm eminently relaxed about Brexit becoming embedded, especially given the antics of both fervent Remainers and the EU since the Brexit vote....0 -
We're not trying to convert people to a new religion. There are better things I can do with my time than trying to persuade people who voted Remain to recant. From my point of view, acquiescence is fine. Enthusiasm is unnecessary.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers are abjectly failing to make any headway with either group at present - the reverse, if anything. The lack of curiosity on Leavers' part about this never ceases to surprise me.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful wn way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.0 -
His actions seem particularly egregious:FrancisUrquhart said:
Oxfam, Save The Children, Labour Party advisor, complaints which were hushed up in order to get a job with yet another charity...seems to be a bit of a pattern.Big_G_NorthWales said:Justin Forsyth resigns from UNICEF
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/author/justin-forsyth
An investigation by BBC Radio 4's PM programme found that the complaints against Mr Forsyth included women receiving a series of inappropriate texts and comments on how they looked, what they were wearing and how he felt about them.
If they did not respond, Mr Forsyth would follow up his messages with an email, asking if they had seen the text.
If they still did not respond, he would ask someone to send them to him for a "quick word".
*) A senior manager makes inappropriate comments and sends similar text messages.
*) If the recipient did not respond, send them an email.
*) If there is still no response, ask them to come in 'for a quick word'.
Not the behaviour anyone, yet alone a senior manager, should be exhibiting. The potential for it becoming even more creepy is obvious.0 -
Exactly so.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.0 -
There will be no task.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm actively trying to be helpful to Leave supporters, identifying their task. They seem highly resistant to getting any help for some reason, even though they have proven manifestly inadequate to the task so far.TGOHF said:
Says the poster who is relying on his opponents dying of old age..AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers are abjectly failing to make any headway with either group at present - the reverse, if anything. The lack of curiosity on Leavers' part about this never ceases to surprise me.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.
Similar to there being no task to convince voters to campaign for the USA to rejoin the Uk, to keep the pound or to ditch the metric system and return to imperial measurements.
There is simply no realistic chance of it happening.
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You paint a picture of considerable support from the public for Leave being a mistake. Now who is guilty of wishful thinking? There is no significant Buyers' Remorse over Brexit, which you no doubt find as unfathomable as the original decision to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.0 -
Most people are not that concerned with what Leavers are doing....AlastairMeeks said:
Despite all those antics, the public have looked at Leavers and decided that they look worse. Let that sink in.Mortimer said:
Polls indicate, amongst the polled public, a small shift to wrong decision.AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.
Polls indicated Remain would win. Polls can often be a poor indicator of public opinion; not least given their sample size restrictions.
The only poll that mattered saw a 1m majority for Leave.
I'm eminently relaxed about Brexit becoming embedded, especially given the antics of both fervent Remainers and the EU since the Brexit vote....0 -
Of-topic:
SpaceX has just failed to catch three million dollars falling from space:
https://www.instagram.com/p/BfgRX-lgIt6/
They're getting closer.0 -
Congratulations on your Nelsonian determination to ignore the distinct shift towards the public believing that Leave was the wrong decision.MarqueeMark said:
You paint a picture of considerable support from the public for Leave being a mistake. Now who is guilty of wishful thinking? There is no significant Buyers' Remorse over Brexit, which you no doubt find as unfathomable as the original decision to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Y6T44tzIcJosiasJessop said:Of-topic:
SpaceX has just failed to catch three million dollars falling from space:
www.instagram.com/p/BfgRX-lgIt6/
They're getting closer.0 -
Wake me when it reaches "I Should Give a Shit" levels....AlastairMeeks said:
Congratulations on your Nelsonian determination to ignore the distinct shift towards the public believing that Leave was the wrong decision.MarqueeMark said:
You paint a picture of considerable support from the public for Leave being a mistake. Now who is guilty of wishful thinking? There is no significant Buyers' Remorse over Brexit, which you no doubt find as unfathomable as the original decision to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.0 -
Almost exactly the same percentage of Remainers have moved to Leave as Leave have to Remain. As MM said there has been very little Buyers Remorse. There has been a move of non voters to Remain but if you think they are going to be committed enough to swing it next time, once we have already left, you are in for a very nasty shock.AlastairMeeks said:
Congratulations on your Nelsonian determination to ignore the distinct shift towards the public believing that Leave was the wrong decision.MarqueeMark said:
You paint a picture of considerable support from the public for Leave being a mistake. Now who is guilty of wishful thinking? There is no significant Buyers' Remorse over Brexit, which you no doubt find as unfathomable as the original decision to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.0 -
12 months before the vote, public opinion favoured Remain by between 10 - 44%. Opinion can fluctuate.AlastairMeeks said:
Congratulations on your Nelsonian determination to ignore the distinct shift towards the public believing that Leave was the wrong decision.MarqueeMark said:
You paint a picture of considerable support from the public for Leave being a mistake. Now who is guilty of wishful thinking? There is no significant Buyers' Remorse over Brexit, which you no doubt find as unfathomable as the original decision to Leave.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.0 -
That statement is about as honest as all the rest you make. In other words not at all.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm actively trying to be helpful to Leave supporters, identifying their task. They seem highly resistant to getting any help for some reason, even though they have proven manifestly inadequate to the task so far.TGOHF said:
Says the poster who is relying on his opponents dying of old age..AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers are abjectly failing to make any headway with either group at present - the reverse, if anything. The lack of curiosity on Leavers' part about this never ceases to surprise me.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.0 -
Support for the return of capital punishment was shown in polling for 20 years from the mid-80s.
Didn't come back.
But rejoin is different or something..0 -
I repeat a point I made this morning. I was under the impression that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success. If half the population, and rising, is distrustful of the decision and a third, and rising, is actively hostile to it, the chances of Brexit being a success do not look good.Richard_Tyndall said:
That statement is about as honest as all the rest you make. In other words not at all.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm actively trying to be helpful to Leave supporters, identifying their task. They seem highly resistant to getting any help for some reason, even though they have proven manifestly inadequate to the task so far.TGOHF said:
Says the poster who is relying on his opponents dying of old age..AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers are abjectly failing to make any headway with either group at present - the reverse, if anything. The lack of curiosity on Leavers' part about this never ceases to surprise me.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.
So I would have thought that it was in Leavers' interests to think about how they are going to change the minds of the unpersuaded. So far, Leavers have been spending all their time reconfirming all the unpersuaded's prejudices about them.0 -
Shocking piece of goalkeeping from Scotland's top club.0
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Vassal state ahoy.
The UK will lose its rebate from the EU at end of 2020 if it seeks to extend the Brexit transition beyond then, the Guardian has learned.
The loss of the rebate, which to some has been a symbol of British influence in Europe since Margaret Thatcher demanded “our money back”, is expected to fuel Tory Brexiters’ demands to keep the transition period as short as possible.
The rebate on the UK payments to the EU budget is worth £4.5bn a year on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/uk-to-lose-eu-rebate-in-2021-even-in-extended-brexit-transition0 -
Seem to be more Ivory Coast flags than Scottish in the away end.TheScreamingEagles said:Shocking piece of goalkeeping from Scotland's top club.
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Theresa May needs to stay as PM/Tory Leader until at least the May elections.
I've just come up with an awesome pun for that night, regardless of the results.0 -
Neither the UK government nor the EU's negotiation position is a transition beyond 2020TheScreamingEagles said:Vassal state ahoy.
The UK will lose its rebate from the EU at end of 2020 if it seeks to extend the Brexit transition beyond then, the Guardian has learned.
The loss of the rebate, which to some has been a symbol of British influence in Europe since Margaret Thatcher demanded “our money back”, is expected to fuel Tory Brexiters’ demands to keep the transition period as short as possible.
The rebate on the UK payments to the EU budget is worth £4.5bn a year on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/uk-to-lose-eu-rebate-in-2021-even-in-extended-brexit-transition0 -
Best not to extend the transition.TheScreamingEagles said:Vassal state ahoy.
The UK will lose its rebate from the EU at end of 2020 if it seeks to extend the Brexit transition beyond then, the Guardian has learned.
The loss of the rebate, which to some has been a symbol of British influence in Europe since Margaret Thatcher demanded “our money back”, is expected to fuel Tory Brexiters’ demands to keep the transition period as short as possible.
The rebate on the UK payments to the EU budget is worth £4.5bn a year on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/uk-to-lose-eu-rebate-in-2021-even-in-extended-brexit-transition0 -
I went to an Old Firm match back in 2000, didn't see a single Scottish flag, was like a match between Côte d'Ivoire and The Netherlands.TGOHF said:
Seem to be more Ivory Coast flags than Scottish in the away end.TheScreamingEagles said:Shocking piece of goalkeeping from Scotland's top club.
0 -
I don't think the transition is going to end on a single date. There are likely to be all sorts of loose ends left, some of which will take longer than 20 months to resolve.0
-
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.0 -
Well there was that position paper that suggested the transition stage last as long as it took to get everything sorted.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Neither the UK government nor the EU's negotiation position is a transition beyond 2020TheScreamingEagles said:Vassal state ahoy.
The UK will lose its rebate from the EU at end of 2020 if it seeks to extend the Brexit transition beyond then, the Guardian has learned.
The loss of the rebate, which to some has been a symbol of British influence in Europe since Margaret Thatcher demanded “our money back”, is expected to fuel Tory Brexiters’ demands to keep the transition period as short as possible.
The rebate on the UK payments to the EU budget is worth £4.5bn a year on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/uk-to-lose-eu-rebate-in-2021-even-in-extended-brexit-transition0 -
The government really hasn't had much difficulty in the Commons with Brexit business.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.0 -
And the point is still wrong no matter how many times you repeat it. At any given time a good 50% or more of the population are unhappy with the government and considerably more than a third are actively hostile to it. The only time this matters is at elections. Brexit will be what it is. You agreeing with it or not is not going to make a blind bit of difference to its success or otherwise. And given that you are such an extremist when it comes to this subject and your warped views of Leave voters most of us have concluded that outside of the entertainment of PB arguments there really is no point trying to satisfy you. You are beyond help.AlastairMeeks said:
I repeat a point I made this morning. I was under the impression that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success. If half the population, and rising, is distrustful of the decision and a third, and rising, is actively hostile to it, the chances of Brexit being a success do not look good.Richard_Tyndall said:
That statement is about as honest as all the rest you make. In other words not at all.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm actively trying to be helpful to Leave supporters, identifying their task. They seem highly resistant to getting any help for some reason, even though they have proven manifestly inadequate to the task so far.TGOHF said:
Says the poster who is relying on his opponents dying of old age..AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers are abjectly failing to make any headway with either group at present - the reverse, if anything. The lack of curiosity on Leavers' part about this never ceases to surprise me.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.
So I would have thought that it was in Leavers' interests to think about how they are going to change the minds of the unpersuaded. So far, Leavers have been spending all their time reconfirming all the unpersuaded's prejudices about them.0 -
I was assaulted, and threatened on two separate occasions in Coventry City centre circa 1998/9. Both times I'm reasonably confident it was due to being white.NickPalmer said:
The argument, which on the whole I agree with, is that in the former case it sends a message to be frightened to everyone with a non-white skin, many of whom will already have experienced some degree of unpleasantness. In the latter case, it really doesn't send a message to everyone with a mobile phone.TheScreamingEagles said:
I made that point a while back.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that kind of thing always sounds odd to me. Would sending unknown powder to a (soon-to-be) member of the royal family be less serious if it had a politically correct note enclosed, explaining that the individual was being targeted for reasons unrelated to demography?
If someone kicks my head because they don’t like the colour of my skin or kicks my head in to steal my mobile phone it’s still going to hurt me the same.
When minorities are completely accepted and never encounter systematic victimisation, it becomes time to drop such special rules - for instance, nobody persecutes people from Derbyshire, so there's no need to give them extra protection. But we're not there yet with non-white people.0 -
I'll ask again: how many Leave voters do you think were voting for more trade deals?TGOHF said:Labour aim for "worst Brexit"
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/966728665756262400
It always amazes me that some diehard Brexiteers always say "the will of the people" has to be respected on Brexit generally, yet then, when it comes to the specifics of what type of Brexit we should have, suddenly "the will of the people" doesn't matter anymore.0 -
*Raises hand*Danny565 said:
I'll ask again: how many Leave voters do you think were voting for more trade deals?TGOHF said:Labour aim for "worst Brexit"
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/966728665756262400
It always amazes me that some diehard Brexiteers always say "the will of the people" has to be respected on Brexit generally, yet then, when it comes to the specifics of what type of Brexit we should have, suddenly "the will of the people" doesn't matter anymore.
That's specifically what I voted for.0 -
The chances of having the main stuff in place by end 2020 are approximately zero. Unless it's a transition to the void there will need to be another transition period. The second cliff edge will start kicking in next year.SeanT said:
Is that true? I thought that the Moggster was angry, recently, because HMG was hinting they wanted transition to last til 2021, or possibly be entirely open-ended.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Neither the UK government nor the EU's negotiation position is a transition beyond 2020TheScreamingEagles said:Vassal state ahoy.
The UK will lose its rebate from the EU at end of 2020 if it seeks to extend the Brexit transition beyond then, the Guardian has learned.
The loss of the rebate, which to some has been a symbol of British influence in Europe since Margaret Thatcher demanded “our money back”, is expected to fuel Tory Brexiters’ demands to keep the transition period as short as possible.
The rebate on the UK payments to the EU budget is worth £4.5bn a year on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/uk-to-lose-eu-rebate-in-2021-even-in-extended-brexit-transition0 -
Let’s say we have another referendum, and Remain win 55-45. The next prime minister would not be Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be Nigel Farage.0 -
Backing the customs union is fine from Corbyn's perspective.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Backing the single market is not as it requires free movement which means he has no chance of winning the majority of Tory marginals which voted Leave (especially if coupled with a second EU referendum which could cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it out0 -
If Corbyn wants to be known as the man who signed up the Uk to pay hefty contributions so we could agree not to make any free trade deals then that is "brave"...Danny565 said:
I'll ask again: how many Leave voters do you think were voting for more trade deals?TGOHF said:Labour aim for "worst Brexit"
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/966728665756262400
It always amazes me that some diehard Brexiteers always say "the will of the people" has to be respected on Brexit generally, yet then, when it comes to the specifics of what type of Brexit we should have, suddenly "the will of the people" doesn't matter anymore.0 -
IANAL, but AIUI nowadays you could ask for it to be investigated as a hate crime, and the police would be obliged to do so.Pulpstar said:
I was assaulted, and threatened on two separate occasions in Coventry City centre circa 1998/9. Both times I'm reasonably confident it was due to being white.NickPalmer said:
The argument, which on the whole I agree with, is that in the former case it sends a message to be frightened to everyone with a non-white skin, many of whom will already have experienced some degree of unpleasantness. In the latter case, it really doesn't send a message to everyone with a mobile phone.TheScreamingEagles said:
I made that point a while back.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that kind of thing always sounds odd to me. Would sending unknown powder to a (soon-to-be) member of the royal family be less serious if it had a politically correct note enclosed, explaining that the individual was being targeted for reasons unrelated to demography?
If someone kicks my head because they don’t like the colour of my skin or kicks my head in to steal my mobile phone it’s still going to hurt me the same.
When minorities are completely accepted and never encounter systematic victimisation, it becomes time to drop such special rules - for instance, nobody persecutes people from Derbyshire, so there's no need to give them extra protection. But we're not there yet with non-white people.0 -
It depends what the "main stuff" is. A lot can be achieved in a couple of years of serious talking - and nothing concentrates the mind better than a deadline.FF43 said:
The chances of having the main stuff in place by end 2020 are approximately zero. Unless it's a transition to the void there will need to be another transition period. The second cliff edge will start kicking in next year.SeanT said:
Is that true? I thought that the Moggster was angry, recently, because HMG was hinting they wanted transition to last til 2021, or possibly be entirely open-ended.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Neither the UK government nor the EU's negotiation position is a transition beyond 2020TheScreamingEagles said:Vassal state ahoy.
The UK will lose its rebate from the EU at end of 2020 if it seeks to extend the Brexit transition beyond then, the Guardian has learned.
The loss of the rebate, which to some has been a symbol of British influence in Europe since Margaret Thatcher demanded “our money back”, is expected to fuel Tory Brexiters’ demands to keep the transition period as short as possible.
The rebate on the UK payments to the EU budget is worth £4.5bn a year on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/uk-to-lose-eu-rebate-in-2021-even-in-extended-brexit-transition0 -
OK, that's fine. But do you accept that you're in a vanishingly small minority of Leave voters?Philip_Thompson said:
*Raises hand*Danny565 said:
I'll ask again: how many Leave voters do you think were voting for more trade deals?TGOHF said:Labour aim for "worst Brexit"
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/966728665756262400
It always amazes me that some diehard Brexiteers always say "the will of the people" has to be respected on Brexit generally, yet then, when it comes to the specifics of what type of Brexit we should have, suddenly "the will of the people" doesn't matter anymore.
That's specifically what I voted for.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/9283599373103841280 -
I think you underestimate Nigel Farage's unpopularity.RoyalBlue said:
Let’s say we have another referendum, and Remain win 55-45. The next prime minister would not be Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be Nigel Farage.
He's Mr Finished Third In A Two Horse Race.0 -
No I don't.Danny565 said:
OK, that's fine. But do you accept that you're in a vanishingly small minority of Leave voters?Philip_Thompson said:
*Raises hand*Danny565 said:
I'll ask again: how many Leave voters do you think were voting for more trade deals?TGOHF said:Labour aim for "worst Brexit"
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/966728665756262400
It always amazes me that some diehard Brexiteers always say "the will of the people" has to be respected on Brexit generally, yet then, when it comes to the specifics of what type of Brexit we should have, suddenly "the will of the people" doesn't matter anymore.
That's specifically what I voted for.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/928359937310384128
"Control" "Sovereignty" "Laws" "Decions" and "Democracy" are all synonyms of what was voted for.
Immigration only has one synonym there: borders. The reason its in big text is not because it was the main issue (it wasn't), its because its the only word used to define that issue.0 -
I have no idea either (I imagine it would depend on the exact circumstances), but it's worth pointing out that there would be rebels in the opposite direction from the Leaver side. Dunno how many though.SeanT said:
That's precisely because Jeremy Corbyn has helped them out, every time, even whipping his MPs to support Brexit, on occasion.Sean_F said:
The government really hasn't had much difficulty in the Commons with Brexit business.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
But if Jeremy has a Damascene conversion to Remoan, the maths in the Commons becomes very dodgy indeed. What would people like Soubry do, if the choice was 1. support TMay and ensure Hard Brexit, or 2. vote against May, assist Corbyn into power, and get a 2nd referendum?
I have no idea.0 -
Indeed we voted Leave despite not because of Farage.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think you underestimate Nigel Farage's unpopularity.RoyalBlue said:
Let’s say we have another referendum, and Remain win 55-45. The next prime minister would not be Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be Nigel Farage.
He's Mr Finished Third In A Two Horse Race.
If Farage had fronted Leave then I would have probably voted Remain.0 -
Not quite...Lord Farage of Strasbourg!TheScreamingEagles said:
I think you underestimate Nigel Farage's unpopularity.RoyalBlue said:
Let’s say we have another referendum, and Remain win 55-45. The next prime minister would not be Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be Nigel Farage.
He's Mr Finished Third In A Two Horse Race.0 -
As long as there are more Labour rebels than Tory ones the Government still wins. There are half a dozen or so Labour MPs who will vote with the Government if necessary.SeanT said:
That's precisely because Jeremy Corbyn has helped them out, every time, even whipping his MPs to support Brexit, on occasion.Sean_F said:
The government really hasn't had much difficulty in the Commons with Brexit business.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
But if Jeremy has a Damascene conversion to Remoan, the maths in the Commons becomes very dodgy indeed. What would people like Soubry do, if the choice was 1. support TMay and ensure Hard Brexit, or 2. vote against May, assist Corbyn into power, and get a 2nd referendum?
I have no idea.0 -
Group (b) isn't very big at the moment, which is a problem. You need to get people from (a) to to (b). Being realistic on the red lines would help with that.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.0 -
Lets not forget the Corbyn is a lifelong fan of mass migration. He wants us to let in everyone in Calais.HYUFD said:
Backing the customs union is fine from Corbyn's perspective.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Backing the single market is not as it requires free movement which means he has no chance of winning the majority of Tory marginals which voted Leave (especially if coupled with a second EU referendum which could cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it out
His objections to the EU are Bennite in origin. He is against capitalism, restrictions on state aid etc - he is not against migration.0 -
What evidence do you have that (b) isn't very big?FF43 said:
Group (b) isn't very big at the moment, which is a problem. You need to get people from (a) to to (b). Being realistic on the red lines would help with that.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.0 -
Same for mePhilip_Thompson said:
Indeed we voted Leave despite not because of Farage.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think you underestimate Nigel Farage's unpopularity.RoyalBlue said:
Let’s say we have another referendum, and Remain win 55-45. The next prime minister would not be Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be Nigel Farage.
He's Mr Finished Third In A Two Horse Race.
If Farage had fronted Leave then I would have probably voted Remain.0 -
He is against allowing free movement if it stops him winning a general election to implement his plans for socialism and mass nationalisation. Those plans and the potential of the ECJ to block them of course mean he will never back the single market, free movement or notPhilip_Thompson said:
Lets not forget the Corbyn is a lifelong fan of mass migration. He wants us to let in everyone in Calais.HYUFD said:
Backing the customs union is fine from Corbyn's perspective.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Backing the single market is not as it requires free movement which means he has no chance of winning the majority of Tory marginals which voted Leave (especially if coupled with a second EU referendum which could cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it out
His objections to the EU are Bennite in origin. He is against capitalism, restrictions on state aid etc - he is not against migration.0 -
The promise - not of a second referendum - but of a referendum on “the deal” would truly put the cat among the pigeons.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
If Corbyn was clever he would, after pretending to be Remain-ish for the last 18 months, pretend to be slightly Brexit-ish for the next, casting a “deal” referendum as democracy in action.
He only needs to win the centre of gravity in parliament which is so painfully and delicately poised. Sinn Fein are in London today. Would they, too, decide Paris is worth a mass, in this case, a referendum promise from Corbyn in the event of his premiership?0 -
Bollocks. Nigel, and UKIP, are a busted flush.RoyalBlue said:
Let’s say we have another referendum, and Remain win 55-45. The next prime minister would not be Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be Nigel Farage.
The Tory right would scoop up the backstabbed vote.0 -
Good luck in a GE with that.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets not forget the Corbyn is a lifelong fan of mass migration. He wants us to let in everyone in Calais.HYUFD said:
Backing the customs union is fine from Corbyn's perspective.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Backing the single market is not as it requires free movement which means he has no chance of winning the majority of Tory marginals which voted Leave (especially if coupled with a second EU referendum which could cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it out
His objections to the EU are Bennite in origin. He is against capitalism, restrictions on state aid etc - he is not against migration.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?0 -
(b) is substantial. It includes half of Conservative MP's.FF43 said:
Group (b) isn't very big at the moment, which is a problem. You need to get people from (a) to to (b). Being realistic on the red lines would help with that.Sean_F said:
IMHO you need to differentiate between (a) those who think Brexit was the wrong decision and hate it and (b) those who think it was the wrong decision and can live with it. The latter are not going to campaign to rejoin, short of catastrophe, especially if the EU moves towards further integration. Brexiteers should certainly reach out to group (b) but they'd be wasting their breath with group (a).AlastairMeeks said:
Leavers back in "suck it up losers" mode. The idea that Brexit will be embedded if the public continue to believe it to be the wrong decision in hindsight is for the birds.Mortimer said:
+100.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it doesn't matter. You need to learn a lesson from Humpty Dumpty. Once the egg is cracked we move on.AlastairMeeks said:
In all your posting, I find a lot of wishful thinking. Your ability to disregard the pretty constant message from the YouGov polling that on balance the public thinks that Leave was a mistake, a message that Leave are completely failing to combat, is in its own way impressive.MarqueeMark said:
In your posting, I find replacing "Remain supporters" with "Alistair Meeks" throughout better conveys the sense of what you are saying.AlastairMeeks said:
Remain supporters look at the appalling waxworks who embody Leave and run from that. What they would run to is far less relevant.MarqueeMark said:
But a referendum to Rejoin - whatever it will be rejoining, whenever that is - will be fighting against the status quo. Rejoins prospects are going, ahem, down down, deeper and down.....AlastairMeeks said:This chart nicely illustrates my point from my thread yesterday morning. Few are changing their minds and the movement is being driven primarily by non-voters at the referendum.
If no one changes their mind, Leave have a big problem: their support is a lot older and will be replaced sooner rather than later. Demography isn't destiny but nor is it irrelevant.
Until it is known what we would be asked to join, and the costs associated with rejoining, looking to the "demographics" is absurd.
Leavers really need to start giving some thought as to how they're going to start winning new converts. Because the diehards are going to die off.0 -
If the government made a clear decision now on Norway plus customs union and focused on delivery of those I agree two years is just about doable. Not least because the gap between the transition and the end state is quite small. But they won't, so it isn't.Philip_Thompson said:
It depends what the "main stuff" is. A lot can be achieved in a couple of years of serious talking - and nothing concentrates the mind better than a deadline.FF43 said:
The chances of having the main stuff in place by end 2020 are approximately zero. Unless it's a transition to the void there will need to be another transition period. The second cliff edge will start kicking in next year.SeanT said:
Is that true? I thought that the Moggster was angry, recently, because HMG was hinting they wanted transition to last til 2021, or possibly be entirely open-ended.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Neither the UK government nor the EU's negotiation position is a transition beyond 2020TheScreamingEagles said:Vassal state ahoy.
The UK will lose its rebate from the EU at end of 2020 if it seeks to extend the Brexit transition beyond then, the Guardian has learned.
The loss of the rebate, which to some has been a symbol of British influence in Europe since Margaret Thatcher demanded “our money back”, is expected to fuel Tory Brexiters’ demands to keep the transition period as short as possible.
The rebate on the UK payments to the EU budget is worth £4.5bn a year on average.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/22/uk-to-lose-eu-rebate-in-2021-even-in-extended-brexit-transition
Don't forget the mass of third party agreements that need to be recast under any Brexit scenario. It's not just the FTA with the EU.0 -
No it is not. The majority of Labour gains last June came in Leave seats.SeanT said:
A lot of his nationalisation stuff is perfectly legal in the EU. Some of his crazier expropriation of property isn't (but then it isn't legal under ECHR, apparently, and there's no sign of him leaving that)HYUFD said:
Backing the customs union is fine from Corbyn's perspective.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Backing the single market is not as it requires free movement which means he has no chance of winning the majority of Tory marginals which voted Leave (especially if coupled with a second EU referendum which could cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it out
Being in the EU would hamper his communist instincts, but Remoanering to a 2nd referendum is the obvious (only?) quick route to prime ministerial power, and - remember - Jeremy is an old man in a hurry. Of whom we must all be wary.
With 2/3 of parliamentary constituencies voting Leave it would be political suicide for Corbyn to be seen to try and reverse the EU referendum and he knows it which is why he has always without fail made clear a Labour government under his leadership will leave the single market.
Under FPTP it is pointless for Labour to win huge majorities in London, Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff if it loses key marginals like Thurrock, Barrow, Peterborough and Mansfield Corbyn has to win to become PM and all of which voted strongly Leave mainly to reduce immigration0 -
/s/probably/definitely.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed we voted Leave despite not because of Farage.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think you underestimate Nigel Farage's unpopularity.RoyalBlue said:
Let’s say we have another referendum, and Remain win 55-45. The next prime minister would not be Jeremy Corbyn.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be Nigel Farage.
He's Mr Finished Third In A Two Horse Race.
If Farage had fronted Leave then I would have probably voted Remain.0 -
I've made this point about SF before. There is already power under the GFA to call a referendum. Corbyn would just have to pledge to them to use it. Coupled with a change to the oath.... I can see how the prize of power on the back of getting SF in the House must be a huge draw to the Momentum wing. Even if it does paint them as hypocrites for monaing about the Tories dealing wth the DUP. Nothing new in Labour and hypocrisy being bed fellows.....Gardenwalker said:
The promise - not of a second referendum - but of a referendum on “the deal” would truly put the cat among the pigeons.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
If Corbyn was clever he would, after pretending to be Remain-ish for the last 18 months, pretend to be slightly Brexit-ish for the next, casting a “deal” referendum as democracy in action.
He only needs to win the centre of gravity in parliament which is so painfully and delicately poised. Sinn Fein are in London today. Would they, too, decide Paris is worth a mass, in this case, a referendum promise from Corbyn in the event of his premiership?0 -
Up to 8 Labour MP's would vote with the government.SeanT said:
That's precisely because Jeremy Corbyn has helped them out, every time, even whipping his MPs to support Brexit, on occasion.Sean_F said:
The government really hasn't had much difficulty in the Commons with Brexit business.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
But if Jeremy has a Damascene conversion to Remoan, the maths in the Commons becomes very dodgy indeed. What would people like Soubry do, if the choice was 1. support TMay and ensure Hard Brexit, or 2. vote against May, assist Corbyn into power, and get a 2nd referendum?
I have no idea.0 -
Mr Corbyn may not change his mind but he does, so I understand, accept the decision of the collective even where it differs from his own wish.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
Good evening, everybody.0 -
He won't say that in a GE. He will simply ignore the issue of migration, campaign on other issues and then be willing to concede free movement if he gets elected as its a concession he doesn't care about - or even views as one of the parts of the EU he actually likes.TGOHF said:
Good luck in a GE with that.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets not forget the Corbyn is a lifelong fan of mass migration. He wants us to let in everyone in Calais.HYUFD said:
Backing the customs union is fine from Corbyn's perspective.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Backing the single market is not as it requires free movement which means he has no chance of winning the majority of Tory marginals which voted Leave (especially if coupled with a second EU referendum which could cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it out
His objections to the EU are Bennite in origin. He is against capitalism, restrictions on state aid etc - he is not against migration.
The idea that a lifelong fan of mass migration like Corbyn will be against a particular form of Brexit because of immigration is for the birds. Corbyn isn't against immigration at all.0 -
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?0 -
He is when it will cost him the marginals he has to win to win a general election to leave free movement uncontrolledPhilip_Thompson said:
He won't say that in a GE. He will simply ignore the issue of migration, campaign on other issues and then be willing to concede free movement if he gets elected as its a concession he doesn't care about - or even views as one of the parts of the EU he actually likes.TGOHF said:
Good luck in a GE with that.Philip_Thompson said:
Lets not forget the Corbyn is a lifelong fan of mass migration. He wants us to let in everyone in Calais.HYUFD said:
Backing the customs union is fine from Corbyn's perspective.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Backing the single market is not as it requires free movement which means he has no chance of winning the majority of Tory marginals which voted Leave (especially if coupled with a second EU referendum which could cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it out
His objections to the EU are Bennite in origin. He is against capitalism, restrictions on state aid etc - he is not against migration.
The idea that a lifelong fan of mass migration like Corbyn will be against a particular form of Brexit because of immigration is for the birds. Corbyn isn't against immigration at all.0 -
On most of the votes on the EU Withdrawal Bill approx six Lab MPs voted with the Govt.Sean_F said:
Up to 8 Labour MP's would vote with the government.SeanT said:
That's precisely because Jeremy Corbyn has helped them out, every time, even whipping his MPs to support Brexit, on occasion.Sean_F said:
The government really hasn't had much difficulty in the Commons with Brexit business.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
But if Jeremy has a Damascene conversion to Remoan, the maths in the Commons becomes very dodgy indeed. What would people like Soubry do, if the choice was 1. support TMay and ensure Hard Brexit, or 2. vote against May, assist Corbyn into power, and get a 2nd referendum?
I have no idea.
But on the most important vote - and the only one the Govt lost - only two Lab MPs voted with the Govt - Field and Hoey.
Reports suggested Skinner (and Campbell?) changed their mind on the day - they would have voted with the Govt but they saw a chance of a Govt defeat so they switched.
May has to assume the same may well happen again - I think she can probably only 100% rely on Field and Hoey.0 -
He already has the vast majority of Remainers. There are penny packets of Remain voters he can win from the Lib Dems and SNP, but he'd be ceding ground in the East and West Midlands and parts of the North to the Conservatives.SeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?0 -
The - perhaps wishful? - analysis suggests Corbyn advocating a path to Remain is a net gain to him.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
There are Leavers and Remainers on both sides, but there seems to be a crucial set of centrists who would flick Labour if the offer is right - enough to outweigh those coming the other way.0 -
It's funny.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed we voted Leave despite not because of Farage.
If Farage had fronted Leave then I would have probably voted Remain.
One of my friends is a staunch Leaver (he's a lot like Casino Royale), the other week he admitted to me had he have known Brexit would be implemented by Liam Fox and David Davis then not only would he have voted Remain he'd have gone out campaigning for Remain too.0 -
Familiar pattern,
Glimmer of hope tweet/comment from Labour source
Remainers engage in frottaging
The route to Remain is examined - it's thin gruel when you think about it - oh well
Rinse and repeat in a week0 -
I think some of the Leavers - and May - sense this, and there is real fear.SeanT said:
But what if - horror - Jeremy simply decides to lie? And say "I am personally Brexit, but people deserve a vote on the final deal, with the option of Remaining, blah blah blah anyway more importantly I will abolish tuition fees, I will give seven trillion to the NHS, I will renationalise failing railways so travel is free, and everyone gets a ten metre long golden dildo, or a new 22 year old wife, on the Thursday after I win"HYUFD said:
No it is not. The majority of Labour gains last June came in Leave seats.SeanT said:
A lot?) quick route to prime ministerial power, and - remember - Jeremy is an old man in a hurry. Of whom we must all be wary.HYUFD said:
Bauld cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it outSeanT said:
We will neof NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
With 2/3 of parliamentary constituencies voting Leave it would be political suicide for Corbyn to be seen to try and reverse the EU referendum and he knows it which is why he has always without fail made clear a Labour government under his leadership will leave the single market.
Under FPTP it is pointless for Labour to win huge majorities in London, Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff if it loses key marginals like Thurrock, Barrow, Peterborough and Mansfield Corbyn has to win to become PM and all of which voted strongly Leave mainly to reduce immigration
Would Leave voters really care that much about a 2nd vote they tell him to F Off? Dunno. but I do know there are millions of Remain voters who would back him just for the chance of that 2nd vote.
I wouldn’t vote Corbyn - not even for a golden dildo - but a crucial net 100,000 or so would.0 -
SeanT's the one who is doing the frottagingTGOHF said:Familiar pattern,
Glimmer of hope tweet/comment from Labour source
Remainers engage in frottaging
The route to Remain is examined - it's thin gruel when you think about it - oh well
Rinse and repeat in a week0 -
Labour would need to tone down some of the radical talk of appropriations and sweeping privatisations "for the workers". They'd hit 50% then with remainers + tory haters + red-rose-on-a-donkey voters.Gardenwalker said:
The - perhaps wishful? - analysis suggests Corbyn advocating a path to Remain is a net gain to him.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
There are Leavers and Remainers on both sides, but there seems to be a crucial set of centrists who would flick Labour if the offer is right - enough to outweigh those coming the other way.
I mean, they're on 42% with a lunatic in charge, a leninist as shadow chancellor, and a bonkers set of disjointed, unimplementable policies.0 -
Very hard to predict when and what will go to vote in Commons.
Discussion between Andrew Neil and Laura K on Daily Politics yesterday said vote this Oct (which itself might get pushed back to Jan / Feb 2019) might just on a single page "Heads of Agreement" which could be very waffly.
All detailed negotiations might only be done after we leave in March 2019 - and then final vote only once everything agreed.
So crunch Commons vote might not be until late 2019 or even into 2020.0 -
It was this story/tweet this morning that made me think the government doesn't have the votes.MikeL said:Very hard to predict when and what will go to vote in Commons.
Discussion between Andrew Neil and Laura K on Daily Politics yesterday said vote this Oct (which itself might get pushed back to Jan / Feb 2019) might just on a single page "Heads of Agreement" which could be very waffly.
All detailed negotiations might only be done after we leave in March 2019 - and then final vote only once everything agreed.
So crunch Commons vote might not be until late 2019 or even into 2020.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/9666251829527101440 -
Anorak said:
The thing is, Corbyn’s Brexit deal doesn’t even have to make sense. It just needs to sound good. The government has shown it’s possible to carry on a policy of utter nonsense - at least rhetorically - with no obvious penalty.Gardenwalker said:
Labour would need to tone down some of the radical talk of appropriations and sweeping privatisations "for the workers". They'd hit 50% then with remainers + tory haters + red-rose-on-a-donkey voters.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
I mean, they're on 42% with a lunatic in charge, a leninist as shadow chancellor, and a bonkers set of disjointed, unimplementable policies.0 -
Gardenwalker said:
The penalty is that they're neck-and-neck with a lunatic, a leninist, and a bonkers set of disjointed, unimplementable policiesAnorak said:
The thing is, Corbyn’s Brexit deal doesn’t even have to make sense. It just needs to sound good. The government has shown it’s possible to carry on a policy of utter nonsense - at least rhetorically - with no obvious penalty.Gardenwalker said:
Labour would need to tone down some of the radical talk of appropriations and sweeping privatisations "for the workers". They'd hit 50% then with remainers + tory haters + red-rose-on-a-donkey voters.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It is his one BIG chance of overthrowing the government, and actually becoming Prime Minister. An incredible achievement. If he doesn't, and Brexit goes ahead, he will very probably be a loser again in 2022, if he hasn't already retired or died or whatever by then.RoyalBlue said:Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
I mean, they're on 42% with a lunatic in charge, a leninist as shadow chancellor, and a bonkers set of disjointed, unimplementable policies.
0 -
There are plenty of LibDems who would NEVER vote Labour. Given how well Labour did in 2017, and the LibDems on 6-7% in the polls, Corbyn has probably already stripped most of those who were ever likely to go to him.SeanT said:But nearly all the Lib Dem voters in these seats would back Corbyn. Surely. That's 2.3m voters.
It would be a very very tight election. Just like the referendum. And Corbyn would be in with a real shout of winning.0 -
https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/966733894753144833
LOL, can’t wait to see the reaction of gamers.0 -
Haiti have banned Oxfam.
Ouch.0 -
https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/966754381998821376TGOHF said:Haiti have banned Oxfam.
Ouch.0 -
Yes, I think that's right.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was this story/tweet this morning that made me think the government doesn't have the votes.MikeL said:Very hard to predict when and what will go to vote in Commons.
Discussion between Andrew Neil and Laura K on Daily Politics yesterday said vote this Oct (which itself might get pushed back to Jan / Feb 2019) might just on a single page "Heads of Agreement" which could be very waffly.
All detailed negotiations might only be done after we leave in March 2019 - and then final vote only once everything agreed.
So crunch Commons vote might not be until late 2019 or even into 2020.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/966625182952710144
I wonder how May might fudge it - might she agree to an amendment which says Govt has the OPTION of going into a Customs Union - but isn't committed either way.
Or something similar?0 -
The ERG folk accept that fudge.MikeL said:
Yes, I think that's right.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was this story/tweet this morning that made me think the government doesn't have the votes.MikeL said:Very hard to predict when and what will go to vote in Commons.
Discussion between Andrew Neil and Laura K on Daily Politics yesterday said vote this Oct (which itself might get pushed back to Jan / Feb 2019) might just on a single page "Heads of Agreement" which could be very waffly.
All detailed negotiations might only be done after we leave in March 2019 - and then final vote only once everything agreed.
So crunch Commons vote might not be until late 2019 or even into 2020.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/966625182952710144
I wonder how May might fudge it - might she agree to an amendment which says Govt has the OPTION of going into a Customs Union - but isn't committed either way.
Or something similar?
They’ll demand no customs union of any sort.-1 -
0
-
If Corbyn came out for a second Referendum and/or staying in the single market and leaving free movement in place (which he won't) the Tories could well win a small majority through sweeping Leave voting marginals even if Labpur won the popular vote through huge majorities in urbsn areasSeanT said:
But nearly all the Lib Dem voters in these seats would back Corbyn. Surely. That's 2.3m voters.Sean_F said:
He already has the vast majority of Remainers. There are penny packets of Remain voters he can win from the Lib Dems and SNP, but he'd be ceding ground in the East and West Midlands and parts of the North to the Conservatives.SeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It y then.RoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
It would be a very very tight election. Just like the referendum. And Corbyn would be in with a real shout of winning.0 -
Pacific Islander Remainers get very excited at every tidbit of anti-Brexit news or even rumours.
It has never helped their cause. In fact, it hurts it.
This is the golden rule of Brexit.0 -
Corbyn cannot sweep to victory, the best he can hope for is cobbling together a rainbow coalition without about 5 parties with a tiny majority.SeanT said:
I'm being provocative, but not playful. The maths is seriously do-able for Labour, if only they weren't led by ideological nutters. Public opinion is slightly anti-Leave. Public opinion is quite strongly FOR a 2nd referendum. 50:36 IIRC.TheScreamingEagles said:
SeanT's the one who is doing the frottagingTGOHF said:Familiar pattern,
Glimmer of hope tweet/comment from Labour source
Remainers engage in frottaging
The route to Remain is examined - it's thin gruel when you think about it - oh well
Rinse and repeat in a week
If Corbyn switches to Yes, let's have a 2nd referendum (but stays personally Brexity) then he could sweep to victory, I reckon.
I'm not pleased by this prospect. The idea of a Corbyn government makes me nauseous. I'm just saying that, given the continuing strife and confusion in Tory ranks, it becomes ever more possible to see a Corbyn route to victory via some significant gesture towards Remainerism - ie that 2nd vote on The Deal.
OK now I am having my second G&T0 -
Of the top 20 Labour target seats held by the Tories only 3 voted Remain and 17 LeaveGardenwalker said:
The - perhaps wishful? - analysis suggests Corbyn advocating a path to Remain is a net gain to him.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It isRoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
There are Leavers and Remainers on both sides, but there seems to be a crucial set of centrists who would flick Labour if the offer is right - enough to outweigh those coming the other way.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour0 -
IMHO Labour will win the next GE, whatever their policies. It will be very interesting how their interpretation of communism/socialism be be enacted in present day conditions.Anorak said:Labour would need to tone down some of the radical talk of appropriations and sweeping privatisations "for the workers". They'd hit 50% then with remainers + tory haters + red-rose-on-a-donkey voters.
I mean, they're on 42% with a lunatic in charge, a leninist as shadow chancellor, and a bonkers set of disjointed, unimplementable policies.
Probably the EU referendum was lost because the EU wasn't working for too many people. So capitalism not working for too many people will lead to a similar vote for change.
But people nowadays have such high expectations (do we realise just how high our expectations are?) and communism doesn't seem to have a very good track record.
So I'm expecting that Mr Corbyn's '70s/'80s dreams will be heavily modified by what people will put up with. It will be interesting to see the outcome.
0 -
They would if it means immigration from the EU remaining unchecked and potentially reversing their voteSeanT said:
But what if - horror - Jeremy simply decides to lie? And say "I am personally Brexit, but people deserve a vote on the final deal, with the option of Remaining, blah blah blah anyway more importantly I will abolish tuition fees, I will give seven trillion to the NHS, I will renationalise failing railways so travel is free, and everyone gets a ten metre long golden dildo, or a new 22 year old wife, on the Thursday after I win"HYUFD said:
No it is not. The majority of Labour gains last June came in Leave seats.SeanT said:
A lot?) quick route to prime ministerial power, and - remember - Jeremy is an old man in a hurry. Of whom we must all be wary.HYUFD said:
Bauld cost Labour working class seats too) and also the single market means the ECJ could block his nationalisation plans which is why Corbyn has firmly ruled it outSeanT said:
We will neof NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
With 2/3 of parliamentary constituencies voting Leave it would be political suicide for Corbyn to be seen to try and reverse the EU referendum and he knows it which is why he has always without fail made clear a Labour government under his leadership will leave the single market.
Under FPTP it is pointless for Labour to win huge majorities in London, Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff if it loses key marginals like Thurrock, Barrow, Peterborough and Mansfield Corbyn has to win to become PM and all of which voted strongly Leave mainly to reduce immigration
Would Leave voters really care that much about a 2nd vote they tell him to F Off? Dunno. but I do know there are millions of Remain voters who would back him just for the chance of that 2nd vote.0 -
Not one poll has Labpur winning the next general election at present, winning enough seats to do a deal with the SNP maybeAnneJGP said:
IMHO Labour will win the next GE, whatever their policies. It will be very interesting how their interpretation of communism/socialism be be enacted in present day conditions.Anorak said:Labour would need to tone down some of the radical talk of appropriations and sweeping privatisations "for the workers". They'd hit 50% then with remainers + tory haters + red-rose-on-a-donkey voters.
I mean, they're on 42% with a lunatic in charge, a leninist as shadow chancellor, and a bonkers set of disjointed, unimplementable policies.
Probably the EU referendum was lost because the EU wasn't working for too many people. So capitalism not working for too many people will lead to a similar vote for change.
But people nowadays have such high expectations (do we realise just how high our expectations are?) and communism doesn't seem to have a very good track record.
So I'm expecting that Mr Corbyn's '70s/'80s dreams will be heavily modified by what people will put up with. It will be interesting to see the outcome.0 -
I knew you’d pop up with your Pacific Island jibes.Mortimer said:Pacific Islander Remainers get very excited at every tidbit of anti-Brexit news or even rumours.
It has never helped their cause. In fact, it hurts it.
This is the golden rule of Brexit.
The question is not, what is the route to Remain? The question is, what is Corbyn’s route to power?
Personally, I’d prefer to Brexit than see Corbyn as PM.0 -
You’re right about a referendum on the deal.SeanT said:
I'm being provocative, but not playful. The maths is seriously do-able for Labour, if only they weren't led by ideological nutters. Public opinion is slightly anti-Leave. Public opinion is quite strongly FOR a 2nd referendum. 50:36 IIRC.TheScreamingEagles said:
SeanT's the one who is doing the frottagingTGOHF said:Familiar pattern,
Glimmer of hope tweet/comment from Labour source
Remainers engage in frottaging
The route to Remain is examined - it's thin gruel when you think about it - oh well
Rinse and repeat in a week
If Corbyn switches to Yes, let's have a 2nd referendum (but stays personally Brexity) then he could sweep to victory, I reckon.
I'm not pleased by this prospect. The idea of a Corbyn government makes me nauseous. I'm just saying that, given the continuing strife and confusion in Tory ranks, it becomes ever more possible to see a Corbyn route to victory via some significant gesture towards Remainerism - ie that 2nd vote on The Deal.
OK now I am having my second G&T
That would be interesting, especially if it was conducted under AV.0 -
Yes, but that doesn’t take into consideration the idea of Leavers voting for an ostensibly Brexity Corbyn advocating a “vote on the deal”.HYUFD said:
Of the top 20 Labour target seats held by the Tories only 3 voted Remain and 17 LeaveGardenwalker said:
The - perhaps wishful? - analysis suggests Corbyn advocating a path to Remain is a net gain to him.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It isRoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
There are Leavers and Remainers on both sides, but there seems to be a crucial set of centrists who would flick Labour if the offer is right - enough to outweigh those coming the other way.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour0 -
I don't think that is right. Many LibDems were upset with Labour at the 2017 election that they weren't more pro remain. I'm sure many LibDems withheld their tactical vote for Labour in Labour/Tory marginals as the Tory and Labour policies on Europe were very similar.MarqueeMark said:
There are plenty of LibDems who would NEVER vote Labour. Given how well Labour did in 2017, and the LibDems on 6-7% in the polls, Corbyn has probably already stripped most of those who were ever likely to go to him.SeanT said:But nearly all the Lib Dem voters in these seats would back Corbyn. Surely. That's 2.3m voters.
It would be a very very tight election. Just like the referendum. And Corbyn would be in with a real shout of winning.
If Corbyn went full Remain, I would certainly vote Labour in a Labour/Tory marginal.
I think the next election, if it comes before Mar 2019, will see tactical voting between Labour and LibDems on a massive scale.0 -
Killer stat for Labour.HYUFD said:
Of the top 20 Labour target seats held by the Tories only 3 voted Remain and 17 LeaveGardenwalker said:
The - perhaps wishful? - analysis suggests Corbyn advocating a path to Remain is a net gain to him.HYUFD said:
The vast majority of Remainers are voting Labour anyway, however so are a number of working class Leave voters, especially in the marginals which will decide the next general electionSeanT said:
I disagree. He could offer a 2nd referendum, but say his personal opinion whether we should Leave or Remain is undecided. i.e. Continue the helpful vagueness, not alienate too many Leavers, but reap millions of grateful Remainers.Sean_F said:
Jeremy Corbyn going full Remain would cost his party votes, not gain them. His current stance is brilliant, in terms of maximising the Labour vote.SeanT said:
It must be very tempting for Corbyn to go full Remoaner now. It isRoyalBlue said:
Staying in a customs union and staying in a customs union and the Single Market are very different things. The former does not allow immigration control from the EU. The latter does.SeanT said:
We will never rejoin the EU after we Brexit. But will we Brexit?williamglenn said:
We'll be rule taking and cash giving from the outside. What will characterise rejoining is that we will regain a say in the affairs of the EU.TGOHF said:I'd say it is very relevant. Voters appear very resistant to change - unless the situation is so bad that lancing the boil is required - like Brexit.
Once we have left, the resistance to rejoining will be high - particularly as it will involve a lot of rule taking and cash giving.
Guido has this story.
https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/966735461799559168
If Corbyn backed staying in the SM, CU and a 2nd referendum (with the option of Remain) he could topple the government, & win the election. Within the next 6 months. BUT he is a lifelong eurosceptic with a history of NEVER changing his mind. A piquant moment.
Yet Full on Remoanerism goes against everything he stands for, he is a Bennite eurosceptic, to the bone.
What price power, Jeremy?
There are Leavers and Remainers on both sides, but there seems to be a crucial set of centrists who would flick Labour if the offer is right - enough to outweigh those coming the other way.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour0
