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The big question is how public and political opinion reacts in the days after a second referendum is announced and the burden of adherence to the 2016 result is lifted.
It shows one of the dangers of polling. Anyone who DNV'd on this one really can't be arsed.
There is no guarantee that all those who support Remain now would automatically support Rejoin. Inertia is a powerful force and once we're out rejoining is not the same as never leaving in the first place.
Mike does it for the lolz.
(actually a Vanilla bug)
They end up here
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/categories/general
If we exit, we'll go into a status quo "vassal state" position, so Rejoin will suddenly have absolute ownership of the "take back control" message.
The opinion is static on the EU and is unlikely to change unless something unexpected comes along. It will continue to be divisive for years to come, sadly
On the lecturers strike all the spokespeople interviewed today studiously ignore the 6 billion pension deficit but as public sector workers they no doubt think it is petty cash and someone else will pay
It must be extremely close.
I accept that the percentage of participation was higher.
What am I missing?
Total votes cast in 1992: 33,614,074
Total votes cast in 2016: 33,577,342
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
1992 General Election: 33,614,074
2016 Referendum: 33,577,342
So 1992 has it by a whisker.
The other inference - that a very large number of DNVs from 2016 would vote an an EURef2 (and would vote for the Brussels bureaucracy at that), seems counter-intuitive at best. Most of those who don't vote in a 72% turnout are likely to be very disengaged from politics. My expectation is that the vast majority of those who could have voted but didn't in 2016, wouldn't vote at a second time of asking.
"Outriders Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke have tabled the amendment [to stay in a customs union], and with Labour’s support it would almost certainly be carried — the surest sign of which is that Tory whips have just delayed the vote."
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-tories-rift-over-customs-union-is-a-gift-for-corbyn-a3773201.html
By not voting, they disenfranchised themselves.
Children are taught in Citizenship classes at school that if they dont get out and vote, then they cant really complain if they get the government they dont like, or if things happen they dont like.
Were these non voters not paying attention in class? Or are they just dumb?
Whatever, they cannot expect a new referendum just because they did not get off their ass on referendum day, anymore than general elections can be re-run because people who didnt vote dont like the government.
The one sound argument that remoaners do have on this issue -and I am surprised they dont make more of it -was the failure to give the vote in the referendum to 16-18 year olds. This was an injustice -and again if the leader of the opposition had made a big issue of it, it would have been much more difficult for the government to refuse.
There has to come a point however when remoaners instead of focussing all their energy on the futility of stopping Brexit, for which there was the biggest vote for change in British political history, and transferring that energy post Brexit to rejoining the EU -after a referendum. That way, the democratic wishes of those who voted to leave in 2016 will be honoured, while at the same time giving a voice and an opportunity for those who want the UK to be in the EU, particularly those who were denied, or denied themselves such a voice in 2016.
9% of remainers have moved. I can't believe they thought remain was a good idea then and now they are convinced it should be leave because it is all going soooo well. I suspect they are more of the mood of: it was a democratic decision, lets get on with it, etc.
However that argument can't be used for the 14% of leave voters moving so their motives must be different, i.e. this is one hell of a cockup; thought it would be easier than this, etc!
1992 brought us the Cones Hotline.
Will 2016 bring us the Immigrant Hotline?
"Hello, I've seen some people standing around, look like immigrants, don't think they should be here."
EURef: 33,577,342 votes cast
1992GE: 33,614,074 votes cast
The 1992 figure may be higher - I don't know whether that includes ballot papers ruled invalid (the EURef figure does: it's 33,551,983 on valid votes).
Now they don't believe that.
It also doesn't give us a clear sense of how big the groups at the top are and so how many people have switched their views comparatively?
Big mess.
I'm not sure 'can't be arsed' is a particularly accurate description of their views ...if you put that view to my youngest, you'd get a thick ear.
Still, absent a much larger move in the polls, the referendum is highly unlikely to be overturned.
We were told there'd be an immediate recession, sky rocketing interest rates and inflation, mass unemployment, stock market and house price collapses, a punishment budget etc
Instead we have had no recession, continuing growth, record high employment, lowest unemployment rate since before we joined the EEC, interest rates as they were before the referendum, inflation at standard levels, record high stock market prices and house price inflation continuing at a standard rate.
There could definitely be some who fell for the fearmongering and have seen what's happened since and thought "well that's not too bad afterall".
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/746488316510482433
Your sympathy is neither here nor there.
I'd have thought an overwhelming majority would have not been able to vote and then would prefer Remain today. If so, it's a pretty meaningless stat, unless there is a serious move to extend the franchise to EU citizens for a rematch.
That right hand column therefore represents maybe 1 in 5 of those who could have voted. Assuming they now have an opinion and could be arsed to get out and vote this time, rather than still be "meh, what's the point?" about it all.
So it looks like a classic LibDem piece of artwork!
As I’m not a subscriber I can’t read the article. Would be good to read all the figures rather than just some.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/mueller-asking-if-manafort-promised-banker-white-house-job-return-n849916
Mueller is not messing around.
can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever...
It was created by Professor Sir John Curtice (pbuh)
1) Do you like pineapple on pizza?
2) Is AV the greatest voting system known to man?
Your answers will determine if your comments automatically end in the spam trap.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.sportsjoe.ie/amp/football/two-arsenal-fans-engage-in-possibly-the-best-twitter-argument-of-all-time-28446
And besides, everyone has off days.
It's called politics.
xx
He does the exit poll.
Brilliant.....
Also, good afternoon, everyone.
Take a deep breath.
*goes to watch The Beatles documentary "Eight Days a Week"......*
All of this makes sense in the context of a EZ with a single currency, single interest rate and a single market. There is pressure to standardise and integrate their laws, even in areas where the EU is not currently active. My daughter, however, indicated that for the first time it made her understand where Leave were coming from (I obviously failed miserably). It all seemed incredibly remote, not particularly democratic and not something that the UK was ever going to want to adopt.
This is where the EU is going. It really has to if the Euro is going to remain stable and its membership secure. The EU we voted to leave was already on that road. Without us it is likely to travel down the integration road even faster. We will never be able to rejoin the EU that Cameron tried to sell to us in 2016. It simply will not exist.
Goes down a bomb in Baghdad.
The stance you outline is also moving the EU and its member states further from democratic nation-states towards bureaucratic conformity.
It doesn’t worry me, not because I’m an old man, but because I think that it shows a logical progression.
There is a fundamental political cultural divide between the UK and EU that reached breaking point in 2016, and cannot be bridged.
If you believe in such a thing as EU citizenship, it makes sense that the laws should be similar throughout all member States. I encountered this a few years ago, when there were proposals for an EU inheritance law, and I drafted a long submission against, on behalf of Wood Green Animal Shelters.
https://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/2018/feb/22/the-solution-to-university-pensions-better-fund-managers
Anthony Hesketh is a senior lecturer at Lancaster University Management School
The article should serve as a warning against attending Lancaster University Management School, if that is the level of understanding by the lecturers. To see why, look at the comments, especially the one by 'northarbour'.
https://www.poemhunter.com/poem/the-lesson/