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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months
I’m sure that this week’s tour of Britain by the anti Brexit bus, featured above, will bring some comfort to those who believe that leaving the EU is wrong and want to stop it.
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My sense at the time was that the juvenile attacks on Ed Miliband did work.
I wonder if it’s because his policy offer wasn’t bold enough to get people’s attention - so people focused on the silly stuff.
If he takes over during the implementation phase I would guess a softer Brexit heavy on the symbolism.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5418447/Anti-Brexit-battlebus-gets-STUCK-streets-London.html
I can't see this kind of thing making a huge difference, but the small swings in the middle are the thing that makes the difference and a strong campaign could affect that.
But would a small swing in public opinion shift the direction of Brexit?
I'm not sure, maybe but far from convinced.
This isn’t smart at all. Normal people will ignore it / it won’t even register enough to be ignored.
Politicos won’t change their mind.
From a stylistic purpose you can’t just clone an icon and change the message (apart from the fact the message itself is too complex) - if anything it’s just going to prompt recall of the original bus
So overall a resounding fail in my view
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/us/politics/kushner-kelly-security-clearance-.html
(And the bus is an irrelevance.)
The garish bus is of itself small potatoes in the great swirl of the BREXIT fallout but is more indicative of the unholy mess the government has descended into.
One might be tempted to contend that the government inspired BREXIT vacuum is simply being filled by a range of messages from all sides except that the closer the nation edges towards the exit door without clear direction then the louder, deeper and more closer to home these messages will have to Joe Public.
Clearly if the government edges toward a modicum of BREXIT competence then the damage to the Conservative party will be restricted, although it has to be said "BREXIT competence" isn't the tag one would immediately place on the backside of this donkey of a government.
Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.
Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.
I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.
PBers have been exiled to ConHome for much lesser crimes against PBdom ....
It’s disspiritibg how many people spent so much energy trying to frustrate the democratic expression in the referendum and, in so doing, undermined the country’s negotiating position
I have seen Damon Albarn on both Sky and the BBC. Yeah, more of him please.
Ministers have now decided to delay Commons votes on the issue for up to two months amid fears that they could result in defeats that jeopardise Brexit negotiations.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/corbyn-to-deliver-labours-brexit-road-map-tv26th8b2
Having said that, since no-one, I’m sure, believes any statistics from either side any more sending a large bus round the street with, probably, questionable statements on the side only adds to the congestion, both on the ground and mentally.
I think now, with a Dutch CEO and chairman, they may very well plump for Rotterdam, perhaps with the fig leaf of keeping their listing here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
And how wanky the imitation looks.
Was that the aim?
Unilever are an important company (a good old fashioned conglomerate). More worrying would be if they moved their research facilities from Colworth and Port Sunlight.
If they do move, Unilever House would be a fantastic development opportunity, it's truly beautiful.
Brexit is over.
Of course some of the more radical leavers are a bit disappointed by this and are making May's life difficult but so far their impact on the negotiations seems to have been negligible. The EU seem to have finally accepted that we mean it (despite the false hope given to them by our remainers) and now want a good deal with minimal disruption. As do we of course.
Your congestion point is well made.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
What is most concerning about the letter — concerning for Leavers like me, or Remainers, or anyone who wants Britain to come through Brexit in one piece — is that the text is poorly thought through and recklessly stupid.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/rees-mogg-and-friends-are-playing-with-fire-x32l2r38z
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
https://www.change.org/p/2988816/u/22417930?utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_campaign=261707&sfmc_tk=E/GpZ/AQe9BzPP3/r0R6zzgyoaskqHulx9FsDGvKt8FhBoNHWwGO2qqG2mu+Vl0h&j=261707&sfmc_sub=599272621&l=32_HTML&u=47482955&mid=7259882&jb=305
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
Chucking rotten tomatoes from the cheap seats at our political masters is all part of participatory democracy. There is no reason at all for Remainers to "get behind" a policy mistake. Undermining the government at every turn is fair game. I note that the bus itinerary seems to be targetting places with Local elections pending.
This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.
I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.
In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.
There appears to be a significant strain of Leaver belief which holds that democratic debate over Europe ceased with the referendum.
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA
@DanielJHannan: Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were patronised as quaint, eccentric or nostalgic, but not illegitimate. Overnight, they somehow became hateful racists. Their crime? Winning.
@eugemeade: @DanielJHannan When Farage stood in front of the poster no one thought 'how quaint, how eccentric, how nostalgic'. Everyone thought 'hateful racist'
I wonder if Corbyn still believes that they are an inspiration for us?
F1: Mercedes/Ferrari unveil their cars today, and testing starts on the 26th. Mood music, of course, means more than the headline times.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/a-surprise-video-why-you-shouldnt-take.html
Leave won fair and square. Elitist attempts to reverse or render meaningless that victory have strengthened the more extreme Leavers.
This thread is written in hope more than fact. There will be a position on transition that goes forward to the European Council in March, and is agreed. The heads of terms for the new trade deal will follow, after a few ups and downs, by the Summer. And life will go on.
Too many Remainers are falling into a trap of taking a very gentle swing in right/wrong on the Brexit vote over the last 20 months, and simply extrapolating that far into the future, balancing against demographics trends, and assuming time wins their case for them.
Simplistic, and wrong.
I hope Labour set out a position on Brexit soon.
My preference would be as soft a Brexit as possible - but I think we do have to leave since we had the referendum vote and opinion hasn’t changed.
id be delighted if they made some reference to rejoining eg - as the result is so close it’s conceivable that the issue isn’t settled (ref. Farage and Hanan when they thought they hadn’t lost)
And therefore govt should seek to agree some kind is speedy special exemption re entry process so we are prepared if the public changes its mind. That’s a total long shot though!
A defection is unlikely to be enough, after all the movement of Quentin Davies from the Tories to Labour when Brown became PM was not enough to win Brown the 2010 general election was it. Nor did defections from Labour and the Tories in the early 1980s to the SDP see the SDP win the 1983 general election
Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
If Brexit happens, the world will still turn. If it doesn't happen, through a democratic process, the world will still turn. If Brexit gets hijacked by any of the Remain or Leave extreme strains, the world might wobble a bit, but it'll even out.
As the Chief Architect of the whole farce used to say- "Chillax, play some Candy Crush!"
Just when it looked as if Trump might just once do the right thing - normal service is resumed.
These people should be working on a military coup to stop Brexit.
Get the military in and cite Russian interference and the people will accept it.
From an article today.
Russia ‘is a bigger threat to our security than terrorists’
The threat to Britain from states such as Russia and North Korea is greater than that posed by terrorism, the defence secretary said yesterday, marking a significant shift in security policy.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-is-a-bigger-threat-to-our-security-than-terrorists-5mjrmr58n
It would help the planning of the coup if Nigel Farage was indicted by Robert Mueller.
But everyone who screams about Brexit should be able to explain whey Relx (Reed Elsevier) chose London over Amsterdam last week.