politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months
I’m sure that this week’s tour of Britain by the anti Brexit bus, featured above, will bring some comfort to those who believe that leaving the EU is wrong and want to stop it.
Comments
-
£2bn a week? I think that's the hit to the economy if pineapple pizzas were banned.0
-
Fpt:Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't believe the juvenile attacks did work. What worked was him being in charge when the financial crash came and the degree to which the public saw him as being responsible for our poor state of readiness. He also suffered from his personality which was seen to be clunking and dour in comparison to Cameron. I don't really see that any of the more specific personal attacks on him worked very well at all.TGOHF said:We were told on here and elsewhere time and time again that juvenile attacks on Gordon Brown wouldn’t work and that he was a titan of good governance and integrity. All the way up until he was smashed at the election.
Corbyn starting from a far lower base - these blows are cumulative.
My sense at the time was that the juvenile attacks on Ed Miliband did work.
I wonder if it’s because his policy offer wasn’t bold enough to get people’s attention - so people focused on the silly stuff.
0 -
Second, like Remain. No matter how much they’d like to think they won.0
-
On topic - It wouldn’t amaze me if Boris did defect - but surely it would only be after becoming PM. We will have left by then I think.
If he takes over during the implementation phase I would guess a softer Brexit heavy on the symbolism.0 -
That the Remain bus got stuck in the narrow London streets yesterday is obviously a metaphor for something.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5418447/Anti-Brexit-battlebus-gets-STUCK-streets-London.html0 -
Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.0
-
Delusions of grandeur, like UKIPSandpit said:Second, like Remain. No matter how much they’d like to think they won.
I can't see this kind of thing making a huge difference, but the small swings in the middle are the thing that makes the difference and a strong campaign could affect that.
But would a small swing in public opinion shift the direction of Brexit?
I'm not sure, maybe but far from convinced.0 -
It is perhaps more useful of the bus to remind voters that BREXIT still isnt done and that there is so much to be resolved, as we approach the local elections in May, images such as this and the associated LEAVE splutter in the media are not going to help the Blues one bit0
-
OGH
This isn’t smart at all. Normal people will ignore it / it won’t even register enough to be ignored.
Politicos won’t change their mind.
From a stylistic purpose you can’t just clone an icon and change the message (apart from the fact the message itself is too complex) - if anything it’s just going to prompt recall of the original bus
So overall a resounding fail in my view0 -
The outcome of this little struggle in the White House will be interesting:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/20/us/politics/kushner-kelly-security-clearance-.html
(And the bus is an irrelevance.)0 -
I think Mike has this correct.Charles said:OGH
This isn’t smart at all. Normal people will ignore it / it won’t even register enough to be ignored.
Politicos won’t change their mind.
From a stylistic purpose you can’t just clone an icon and change the message (apart from the fact the message itself is too complex) - if anything it’s just going to prompt recall of the original bus
So overall a resounding fail in my view
The garish bus is of itself small potatoes in the great swirl of the BREXIT fallout but is more indicative of the unholy mess the government has descended into.
One might be tempted to contend that the government inspired BREXIT vacuum is simply being filled by a range of messages from all sides except that the closer the nation edges towards the exit door without clear direction then the louder, deeper and more closer to home these messages will have to Joe Public.
Clearly if the government edges toward a modicum of BREXIT competence then the damage to the Conservative party will be restricted, although it has to be said "BREXIT competence" isn't the tag one would immediately place on the backside of this donkey of a government.0 -
That’s a deadful prospect! How can you even think it?RobD said:£2bn a week? I think that's the hit to the economy if pineapple pizzas were banned.
0 -
Desperate stuff.0
-
It is a reminder that it won't all be over after we have left. Our relationship with the EU will continue to have a huge impact on UK politics. Brexit won't be over for decades.0
-
Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........0
-
Good morning all.
Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.
Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.
I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.0 -
If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of thingsswing_voter said:Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........
0 -
I think the logic of the bus is as long as it is being talked about it is doing its job. You are playing your part well.John_M said:Good morning all.
Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.
Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.
I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.0 -
Yes, yes, of course, it's all going according to plan, you big city types are far too cunning for this country girl *backs aways slowly*.Recidivist said:
I think the logic of the bus is as long as it is being talked about it is doing its job. You are playing your part well.John_M said:Good morning all.
Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.
Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.
I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.0 -
How very dare you Madam ....Charles said:
If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of thingsswing_voter said:Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........
PBers have been exiled to ConHome for much lesser crimes against PBdom ....0 -
Let's see what the Vox pops are like from Worcester. A reasonably typical place both in terms of lab Tory and leave remain sentiment0
-
Not my bus.John_M said:
Yes, yes, of course, it's all going according to plan, you big city types are far too cunning for this country girl *backs aways slowly*.Recidivist said:
I think the logic of the bus is as long as it is being talked about it is doing its job. You are playing your part well.John_M said:Good morning all.
Every time anyone mentions the £350m bus, I'm just going to point to this travesty. The campaign claim could at least be anchored to our gross contribution.
Whereas this figure is the end point of a fifteen year projection from a single economic model under a single scenario which is highly unlikely to be realised. It's not even good enough to be called a lie.
I do like the Freudian element to it though; they clearly think that Leavers are so thick they don't know what a 'billion' is. Like the Bourbons, the Chukkas of this world have forgotten nothing and learned nothing.0 -
Your substantive point is worth discussionJackW said:
How very dare you Madam ....Charles said:
If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of thingsswing_voter said:Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........
PBers have been exiled to ConHome for much lesser crimes against PBdom ....
It’s disspiritibg how many people spent so much energy trying to frustrate the democratic expression in the referendum and, in so doing, undermined the country’s negotiating position0 -
https://twitter.com/barristersecret/status/966565730631213056rkrkrk said:Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.
0 -
I haven't seen the bus on the TV news.
I have seen Damon Albarn on both Sky and the BBC. Yeah, more of him please.0 -
-
Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.0
-
The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.0
-
Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)Recidivist said:Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
0 -
Really? I thought it was a Dutch company anyway?Recidivist said:Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
0 -
Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke, the Remain-supporting Tory MPs, have been inspiring a rebellion to keep Britain in the customs union by tabling amendments to the Taxation (Cross-Border Trade) Bill, also known as the customs bill or trade bill.
Ministers have now decided to delay Commons votes on the issue for up to two months amid fears that they could result in defeats that jeopardise Brexit negotiations.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/corbyn-to-deliver-labours-brexit-road-map-tv26th8b20 -
I refuse to be told off for bitching about a narrow defeat by people for whom a more substantial one festered for over 40 years.DavidL said:The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.
Having said that, since no-one, I’m sure, believes any statistics from either side any more sending a large bus round the street with, probably, questionable statements on the side only adds to the congestion, both on the ground and mentally.0 -
The most significant recent development on the Brexit front is Jeremy Corbyn focusing on it in PMQs yesterday - and actually putting the PM on the spot. Corbyn never asks questions about Brexit. But now he has. Hmmm. That tells me something is happening inside the Labour party. Watch this space.0
-
Was my customer back in the 90s/early noughties. They're Anglo-Dutch - Lever Brothers of Port Sunlight fame merged with a Dutch margarine company. They were debating whether to settle for a single HQ when I was selling to them - it's a really cumbersome operation (though I used to prefer going to Blackfriars, Rotterdam is a bit shit).RobD said:
Really? I thought it was a Dutch company anyway?Recidivist said:Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
I think now, with a Dutch CEO and chairman, they may very well plump for Rotterdam, perhaps with the fig leaf of keeping their listing here.0 -
So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?Charles said:
Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)Recidivist said:Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
0 -
Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/barristersecret/status/966565730631213056rkrkrk said:Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.
0 -
Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.0 -
On the bus, we are STILL talking about how much impact the original had.
And how wanky the imitation looks.
Was that the aim?0 -
What negotiating position? The government has not yet decided one. That’s no-one’s fault but the government’s.Charles said:
Your substantive point is worth discussionJackW said:
How very dare you Madam ....Charles said:
If that was their objective they really are idiots. Analysis and discussion on pb.com is meaningless in the greater scheme of thingsswing_voter said:Will the head of the ONS dispute the figure like he did on the 2016 LEAVE figure? so far, at 6:35am its already generating discussion and analysis on PB.com - just as the backers intended.........
PBers have been exiled to ConHome for much lesser crimes against PBdom ....
It’s disspiritibg how many people spent so much energy trying to frustrate the democratic expression in the referendum and, in so doing, undermined the country’s negotiating position
0 -
Helluva finish in the ice hockey....0
-
Not really, though of course it's going to be seen through the prism of Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?Charles said:
Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)Recidivist said:Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
Unilever are an important company (a good old fashioned conglomerate). More worrying would be if they moved their research facilities from Colworth and Port Sunlight.
If they do move, Unilever House would be a fantastic development opportunity, it's truly beautiful.0 -
As a general rule when someone describes a political move as "desperate" it means in fact "effective"Casino_Royale said:Desperate stuff.
0 -
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
0 -
Yeah, you got me.MikeSmithson said:
As a general rule when someone describes a political move as "desperate" it means in fact "effective"Casino_Royale said:Desperate stuff.
Brexit is over.0 -
I have consistently said that the closeness of the result means that the government should be aiming for a soft Brexit, retaining as many as possible of the benefits of the EU whilst actually leaving. In my reading of the situation May is doing exactly that and Boris is backing her in that respect.OldKingCole said:
I refuse to be told off for bitching about a narrow defeat by people for whom a more substantial one festered for over 40 years.DavidL said:The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.
Having said that, since no-one, I’m sure, believes any statistics from either side any more sending a large bus round the street with, probably, questionable statements on the side only adds to the congestion, both on the ground and mentally.
Of course some of the more radical leavers are a bit disappointed by this and are making May's life difficult but so far their impact on the negotiations seems to have been negligible. The EU seem to have finally accepted that we mean it (despite the false hope given to them by our remainers) and now want a good deal with minimal disruption. As do we of course.
Your congestion point is well made.0 -
It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.0
-
I suspect the bigger news is Mrs May trying to bounce her cabinet and JRM’s declaration of war on Mrs May.0
-
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.0 -
The revolution will devour itself. Here is Brexit a supporting journo on the ERG letterAlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
What is most concerning about the letter — concerning for Leavers like me, or Remainers, or anyone who wants Britain to come through Brexit in one piece — is that the text is poorly thought through and recklessly stupid.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/rees-mogg-and-friends-are-playing-with-fire-x32l2r38z0 -
-
I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
https://www.change.org/p/2988816/u/22417930?utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_campaign=261707&sfmc_tk=E/GpZ/AQe9BzPP3/r0R6zzgyoaskqHulx9FsDGvKt8FhBoNHWwGO2qqG2mu+Vl0h&j=261707&sfmc_sub=599272621&l=32_HTML&u=47482955&mid=7259882&jb=3050 -
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.0 -
John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.0 -
Yeah yeahbut but we haven’t left yet, and in 15 years Britain will be a 3rd world country taking rules from Europe and shorn of all status in the world. Or something.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.0 -
A very rare example of a moderate Leaver dissociating himself from the extremists.Scott_P said:
The revolution will devour itself. Here is Brexit a supporting journo on the ERG letterAlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
What is most concerning about the letter — concerning for Leavers like me, or Remainers, or anyone who wants Britain to come through Brexit in one piece — is that the text is poorly thought through and recklessly stupid.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/rees-mogg-and-friends-are-playing-with-fire-x32l2r38z0 -
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.Fishing said:I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
https://www.change.org/p/2988816/u/22417930?utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_campaign=261707&sfmc_tk=E/GpZ/AQe9BzPP3/r0R6zzgyoaskqHulx9FsDGvKt8FhBoNHWwGO2qqG2mu+Vl0h&j=261707&sfmc_sub=599272621&l=32_HTML&u=47482955&mid=7259882&jb=3050 -
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.0 -
Yes, indeed the revived Brexit Bus is working well. The point of a publicity stunt is to get people talking. The "is it worth it?" tagline plays on both economic concerns, but also on the Brexit fatigue affecting even the political obsessives on here. Money well spent.JackW said:
I think Mike has this correct.Charles said:OGH
This isn’t smart at all. Normal people will ignore it / it won’t even register enough to be ignored.
Politicos won’t change their mind.
From a stylistic purpose you can’t just clone an icon and change the message (apart from the fact the message itself is too complex) - if anything it’s just going to prompt recall of the original bus
So overall a resounding fail in my view
The garish bus is of itself small potatoes in the great swirl of the BREXIT fallout but is more indicative of the unholy mess the government has descended into.
One might be tempted to contend that the government inspired BREXIT vacuum is simply being filled by a range of messages from all sides except that the closer the nation edges towards the exit door without clear direction then the louder, deeper and more closer to home these messages will have to Joe Public.
Clearly if the government edges toward a modicum of BREXIT competence then the damage to the Conservative party will be restricted, although it has to be said "BREXIT competence" isn't the tag one would immediately place on the backside of this donkey of a government.
Chucking rotten tomatoes from the cheap seats at our political masters is all part of participatory democracy. There is no reason at all for Remainers to "get behind" a policy mistake. Undermining the government at every turn is fair game. I note that the bus itinerary seems to be targetting places with Local elections pending.
0 -
That one will. And hopefully Canada and New Zealand and maybe the United States will too. Don't know about the others.Recidivist said:
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.0 -
It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.
I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.
In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.0 -
Yep - it’s not a happy picture. Low to non-existent growth in areas like plant and machinery, ICT, R&D, etc - the stuff that will underpin our competiveness in five to ten years’ time.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
0 -
Freedom of movement to Australasia would be vey popular, it would do wonders for net emigration!Recidivist said:
So you are saying that non-EU trade deals are going to come with freedom of movement strings attached? Not sure that's what leave supporters want to hear.Fishing said:I don't think the bus is a smart tactic. I have seen no evidence that the Leave bus in the campaign affected the polling or the end result at all, and then there was an actual campaign. Still, if it makes Blair, Clegg et al feel like there is a chance, and diverts them from more effective efforts to thwart democracy, then fair enough.
Off topic, I see the Australians are going to ask for reciprocal working rights, so hopefully CANZUK will actually happen:
https://www.change.org/p/2988816/u/22417930?utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_campaign=261707&sfmc_tk=E/GpZ/AQe9BzPP3/r0R6zzgyoaskqHulx9FsDGvKt8FhBoNHWwGO2qqG2mu+Vl0h&j=261707&sfmc_sub=599272621&l=32_HTML&u=47482955&mid=7259882&jb=3050 -
I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.0 -
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.FF43 said:
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.0 -
But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.OldKingCole said:
I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
0 -
The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.John_M said:
It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.
I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.
In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.0 -
You are, if I may say so, not helping.AlastairMeeks said:
The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.John_M said:
It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.
I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.
In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.0 -
Absolutely.OldKingCole said:
I refuse to be told off for bitching about a narrow defeat by people for whom a more substantial one festered for over 40 years...DavidL said:The economic modelling on the impact of banning of pineapple on pizza is quite robust compared to this nonsense. I know that our metropolitan elite are really not used to losing but it really is time that they grew up a bit and accepted the result. A campaign bus 20 months after they lost is beyond childish, its just stupid.
There appears to be a significant strain of Leaver belief which holds that democratic debate over Europe ceased with the referendum.
0 -
I'll put you down as a 'maybe' then.AlastairMeeks said:
The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.John_M said:
It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.
I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.
In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.0 -
Not to mention the Flexcit crew - the Norths and Norgrove - who blog or tweet each day on the arrant idiocy of the government’s approach.AlastairMeeks said:
A very rare example of a moderate Leaver dissociating himself from the extremists.Scott_P said:
The revolution will devour itself. Here is Brexit a supporting journo on the ERG letterAlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
What is most concerning about the letter — concerning for Leavers like me, or Remainers, or anyone who wants Britain to come through Brexit in one piece — is that the text is poorly thought through and recklessly stupid.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/rees-mogg-and-friends-are-playing-with-fire-x32l2r38z0 -
O/T
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA0 -
Interesting exchange with Dan Hannan yesterday, the epitome of the Brexiteer who wants to pretend he wasn't part of the same campaignAlastairMeeks said:The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
@DanielJHannan: Before the referendum, Eurosceptics were patronised as quaint, eccentric or nostalgic, but not illegitimate. Overnight, they somehow became hateful racists. Their crime? Winning.
@eugemeade: @DanielJHannan When Farage stood in front of the poster no one thought 'how quaint, how eccentric, how nostalgic'. Everyone thought 'hateful racist'0 -
It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.SouthamObserver said:
But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.OldKingCole said:
I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.0 -
Is socialism the answer to our obesity problem?AndyJS said:O/T
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA
I wonder if Corbyn still believes that they are an inspiration for us?0 -
Good morning, everyone.
F1: Mercedes/Ferrari unveil their cars today, and testing starts on the 26th. Mood music, of course, means more than the headline times.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2018/02/a-surprise-video-why-you-shouldnt-take.html0 -
Immigration figures out today, time to get my xenephobe on.0
-
Not proper socialism.AndyJS said:O/T
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA0 -
Not socialist enough. We need to wait for Venezula 2 : Socialist Harder. The Christmas hit of 2025.Casino_Royale said:
Not proper socialism.AndyJS said:O/T
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA0 -
Maybe it died when Remainer elites decided to throw themselves into campaigns for no Brexit or BINO (i.e. continued SM/CU membership). If they'd rallied behind something like EFTA from day one and tried to work with softer Leavers to get that, who knows.AlastairMeeks said:The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.
Leave won fair and square. Elitist attempts to reverse or render meaningless that victory have strengthened the more extreme Leavers.0 -
Moderate Leavers didn't do any such thing. But I've given up trying to debate on this now. Some battles you just can't win.John_M said:
I'll put you down as a 'maybe' then.AlastairMeeks said:
The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.John_M said:
In terms of reconciliation, I'm not sure I even understand what's expected of individuals like me I expect people to do as they please; campaign, demonstrate, argue, move on, whatever they wish. I'll respect whatever they decide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.AlastairMeeks said:John_M said:
I'm just .AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has the distrust of half the population and the active opposition of a third of the population, with both of those shares looking to be growing over time rather than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
This thread is written in hope more than fact. There will be a position on transition that goes forward to the European Council in March, and is agreed. The heads of terms for the new trade deal will follow, after a few ups and downs, by the Summer. And life will go on.
Too many Remainers are falling into a trap of taking a very gentle swing in right/wrong on the Brexit vote over the last 20 months, and simply extrapolating that far into the future, balancing against demographics trends, and assuming time wins their case for them.
Simplistic, and wrong.0 -
Guardian and Independent both very critical of his questioning.SouthamObserver said:The most significant recent development on the Brexit front is Jeremy Corbyn focusing on it in PMQs yesterday - and actually putting the PM on the spot. Corbyn never asks questions about Brexit. But now he has. Hmmm. That tells me something is happening inside the Labour party. Watch this space.
I hope Labour set out a position on Brexit soon.
My preference would be as soft a Brexit as possible - but I think we do have to leave since we had the referendum vote and opinion hasn’t changed.
id be delighted if they made some reference to rejoining eg - as the result is so close it’s conceivable that the issue isn’t settled (ref. Farage and Hanan when they thought they hadn’t lost)
And therefore govt should seek to agree some kind is speedy special exemption re entry process so we are prepared if the public changes its mind. That’s a total long shot though!0 -
The main reason our figures are not even better is that there has been a significant drop in the number of new cars being bought while we work out what to do about diesels. If you look at the breakdown transport is down 15%. And last year was the first year in about 8 that we did not have increased car production.OldKingCole said:
It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.SouthamObserver said:
But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.OldKingCole said:
I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.0 -
What do you mean?Casino_Royale said:
Not proper socialism.AndyJS said:O/T
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA0 -
I am comparing pre and post referendum, which is the only sensible comparison to make in a Brexit context. France and Germany improved by five percentage points over this period; we improved by two points. Investment is a sticky thing to measure, so arguably a one year period is a little meaningless, but at least we didn't go backwards.DavidL said:
You are misreading the chart. If you go to the end of figure 4 you get GFCF since 2008. Germany is top with 111.2, we are second with 109.3, the US is close behind on 109, everyone else is well back. The graph also shows that there is no evidence at all of any deterioration in our performance since 2016.FF43 said:
Those investment figures aren't particularly good, although not actually dire as you point out. GCF is down by about a half on pre referendum figures and significantly trailing our EU peers.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
We have now had 8 quarters in a row of increased GFCF, an unusually long and stable trend resulting in the graph at figure 3. Some of these increases have been quite modest but the startling thing is the lack of volatility since the vote, not the reverse.0 -
I’d imagine that the average price of cars made in the UK went up substantially last year. As the mass market slowed down, the likes of Rolls Royce, Aston Martin, Bentley, Lotus and McLaren all launched new models and can’t make enough of them to satisfy demand.DavidL said:
The main reason our figures are not even better is that there has been a significant drop in the number of new cars being bought while we work out what to do about diesels. If you look at the breakdown transport is down 15%. And last year was the first year in about 8 that we did not have increased car production.OldKingCole said:
It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.SouthamObserver said:
But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.OldKingCole said:
I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.0 -
The only thing that would really make a difference is polls showing big leads for Remain of at least 10%+ and even that would not guarantee a Remain win in a second EU referendum.
A defection is unlikely to be enough, after all the movement of Quentin Davies from the Tories to Labour when Brown became PM was not enough to win Brown the 2010 general election was it. Nor did defections from Labour and the Tories in the early 1980s to the SDP see the SDP win the 1983 general election0 -
Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.MarqueeMark said:
Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....Scott_P said:
twitter.com/barristersecret/status/966565730631213056rkrkrk said:Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.
Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?0 -
It was immigration which got Leave over 50%, a Brexit vote which does nothing to control immigration is a pointless vote and will lead to a far right or UKIP resurgence. Though of course it was largely Blair's failure to impose transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries in 2004 which was responsible for the Leave victoryAlastairMeeks said:
The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.John_M said:
It's hard to get my point across, I suppose. I don't think that democracy stopped in June 2016. I agree with David that a 52:48 indicates that the country would prefer, if I can anthropomorphise it, a gentle Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
I thought that Leavers wanted Brexit to be a success? That seems unlikely while it has nces.John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
This indicates to me that Mogg and his fellow travellers are pissing into the wind. I dislike Ultras on both sides of the argument.
I would be disappointed if Brexit were overturned in some fashion, but as long as it is done in a democratic fashion, that is more important. People might view Brexit as a joy or a calamity, but what's really important to the long term health of this country is that we respect our democracy and our institutions.
In terms cide, though I reserve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.0 -
On a very different note, you probably saw the news story about two teenage boys being stabbed to death within 24 hours if each other in Camden the other day. The second one - a 17 year-old - was murdered right outside my sister’s flat. Her boyfriend looked out of their front window and saw him lying dead in the street not 10 feet away. Apparently, the body was uncovered for an age. He’s an ex-policemen so has taken it in his stride, but it brings things home to you. Hidden away in affluent, metropolitan North London are these huge estates where young men - many from chaotic, dysfunctional homes - carry knives as a matter of routine and seek to kill each other. It’s going to take a lot of solving.0
-
I guess the problem is that on the referendum voting slip, there was only a simple, binary question. 33.6 million people voted Remain or Leave for 33.6 million different reasons. Unfortunately, there are a lot of complete arseholes on all sides of the equation. I'm not going to "own" anything I don't agree with, just because someone voted the same way as i did, just I don't expect any moderate Remain voter to "own" anything said by the likes of The New European or other proponents of the "UK IS DOOMED!!!!" gang. There doesn't seem to be any sight of reconciliation from any of the Leave or Remain Extremists, so why worry about it?AlastairMeeks said:
The idea of a gentle Brexit died when so-called moderate Leavers threw themselves in the referendum campaign behind xenophobic lies.John_M said:AlastairMeeks said:John_M said:
I'm just astonished they'd be so tacky and choose something that's so easily dismissed, even by the surly, stupid provincials of this land. Still, it's their money.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
To return to my point yesterday, I'm not seeking reconciliation with anyone, least of all random people on the Internet.
er than shrinking. Encouraging reconciliation would seem prudent in the circumstances.John_M said:
Tnet.AlastairMeeks said:It is slowly dawning on ardent Leavers that the Brexit debate isn't going away. They seem to have returned, in default of any more persuasive argument, to "suck it up losers". I doubt that is going to foster the uneasy reconciliation that they hope for.
ve the right to mock feeble efforts such as the one above.
If Brexit happens, the world will still turn. If it doesn't happen, through a democratic process, the world will still turn. If Brexit gets hijacked by any of the Remain or Leave extreme strains, the world might wobble a bit, but it'll even out.
As the Chief Architect of the whole farce used to say- "Chillax, play some Candy Crush!"0 -
Yes, that’s why I said they are low, not non-existent. The point is that at this stage in the economic cycle they should be much higher. That they’re not will prove problematic further down the line. We should be fixing the roof while the sun is shining, as someone once said. But we’re not.OldKingCole said:
It may well not be happening on the scale we need, but it is happening.SouthamObserver said:
But that’s exactly what’s not happening on anything like the scale we need, despite strong growth in the global economy and a very benign borrowing environment.OldKingCole said:
I’m inclined to agree with your penultimate line; were I still ‘in business’ and not smugly retirerd I would by now be saying that, having trod water for some considerable time, if I didn’t invest in some sensible way..... plant, technology and so on..... I would be in danger of falling seriously behind competitors. And, whether I liked it or not, looks like some form of Brexit is going to happen, and better to be a bit ahead of the game rather than running to catch afterwards.DavidL said:
Really? Have a look at this: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/businessinvestment/julytoseptemberrevisedresultsSouthamObserver said:
Business has no idea what we are leaving to, which is why investment levels are currently so low. That has significant implications for the future.DavidL said:Meanwhile, in the real world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43139077
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646
Borrowing continues to fall instead of a forecast rise, productivity improves by the most since 2008, we have the longest run in increasing industrial production for more than 20 years, almost full employment with a record number of people in work, house construction the highest since the crash, growth well above forecast, a modestly improving trend in our balance of payments as the emphasis switches from consumption to production...
Of course we haven't left yet but we are going to and business knows it. Where is the Brexit impact that was set out in such comprehensive Treasury models for the benefit of Project Fear? The one upside of an absurd 15 year forecast is that they won't be proven wrong so quickly this time.
The international comparisons are at paragraph 7. We are not quite top but well above average. The trend is at paragraph 6, figure 3. It is very positive. I would be the first to acknowledge that UK business has not invested enough long term for a long time and that we could and should do even better. But the idea that we have some form of investor paralysis on the back of Brexit is once again not vouched by the numbers.
0 -
Mr. Observer, indeed. Is there a head of steam there for more searches?0
-
We're agreed - the idea is as dumb as a brick. Guns and schools don't mix, period.Beverley_C said:
Arm the teachers and the next schoolshooter does not have to acquire weapons and bring them in. The weapons will already be there - just whack the teacher and take their weapon.MarqueeMark said:
Arm teachers, and the next schoolshooter takes a kid as a human shield - and starts shooting from behind them. Is the now armed teacher expected to risk killing the shield? No. Progress? Nil....Scott_P said:
twitter.com/barristersecret/status/966565730631213056rkrkrk said:Not a massive surprise - but looks like Trump is back on board with the NRA, calling for teachers to be armed.
Also, how long until some teacher shoots another teacher or pupil in a row / fight / argument?
Just when it looked as if Trump might just once do the right thing - normal service is resumed.0 -
On topic, they’ve got it all wrong.
These people should be working on a military coup to stop Brexit.
Get the military in and cite Russian interference and the people will accept it.
From an article today.
Russia ‘is a bigger threat to our security than terrorists’
The threat to Britain from states such as Russia and North Korea is greater than that posed by terrorism, the defence secretary said yesterday, marking a significant shift in security policy.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-is-a-bigger-threat-to-our-security-than-terrorists-5mjrmr58n
It would help the planning of the coup if Nigel Farage was indicted by Robert Mueller.0 -
Well it is an impressive level of equality, which is what the left believes in. And pretty much all patrimonial capital (Monbiot’s phrase from last night’s IQ debate - he got it from Piketty’s book - and said that tax rates of 83% were good because they destroyed it even if they did not raise revenue) has been destroyed. So why would it not be an inspiration?DavidL said:
Is socialism the answer to our obesity problem?AndyJS said:O/T
"Venezuelans reported losing on average 11 kilograms (24 lbs) in body weight last year and almost 90 percent now live in poverty, according to a new university study on the impact of a devastating economic crisis and food shortages."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-food/venezuelans-report-big-weight-losses-in-2017-as-hunger-hits-idUSKCN1G52HA
I wonder if Corbyn still believes that they are an inspiration for us?0 -
TSE with his normal disdain for democracy.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, they’ve got it all wrong.
These people should be working on a military coup to stop Brexit.
Get the military in and cite Russian interference and the people will accept it.
From an article today.
Russia ‘is a bigger threat to our security than terrorists’
The threat to Britain from states such as Russia and North Korea is greater than that posed by terrorism, the defence secretary said yesterday, marking a significant shift in security policy.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-is-a-bigger-threat-to-our-security-than-terrorists-5mjrmr58n
It would help the planning of the coup if Nigel Farage was indicted by Robert Mueller.0 -
No - worth lobbying for even if they didn’t get it. The Dutch withholding tax changes made it much more likely that it was going to Rotterdam. The potential role of the stichtung is important too.SouthamObserver said:
So another stupid, unnecessary mistake by the government to try to get them to stay?Charles said:
Their operational HQ has been in Holland for 70 years (the “Uni” bit of Uni-Lever)Recidivist said:Unilever moving its headquarters to Holland would be a big blow for the UK. I really hope they don't.
But everyone who screams about Brexit should be able to explain whey Relx (Reed Elsevier) chose London over Amsterdam last week.0
