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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency pol
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling
Tonight we’ve got four new Alan Bown funded specific constituency polls carried out by Survation and the message is not good for the blues. Bown is a UKIP donor and national office holder.
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Here
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/03/another-polling-blow-for-the-tories-in-phase-2-of-the-con-marginals-polling-funded-by-a-ukip-donor/
and here
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/11/27/ukip-within-5-points-of-taking-thanet-south-according-to-new-constituency-poll-con-slips-from-1st-to-3rd/
Good evening, everyone.
Mr. Eagles, I believe Gustavus Adolphus was a Swedish chap. TA Dodge wrote a bio/history of his wars. Keep meaning to find it.
Annoyingly some new versions of Dodge's histories have been released and they're enormously abridged (but don't say so). That kind of thing really pisses me off.
On-topic: this may narrow. Right now Labour benefit hugely (although not quite exclusively, thanks to UKIP) from any voters not pro-Coalition. When the time comes to make a decision, hopefully people will shudder at the prospect of PM Miliband and vote for someone else.
Oh don't get me wrong my eyes are open. I don't see myself being in the same job in 5 years time. For me it's a short to medium term move that may help my future career outside of banking as I will gain experience outside of software development.
He has arranged the meeting for 4pm tomorrow at his office. He assured me it's not an interview and to dress casually...
The Battle of Breitenfeld was one of the better military victories in history, up there with the Battle of Alesia, in defeating a numerically superior opponent.
I believe it is 8 in total.
So one more to go.
Adolphus is probably too modern. I've begun reading (slowly) Vegetius' military thingummyjig. If there's a cheap version I might try Fronto next.
The informal chat is the right next step. Ask him, if you can, to introduce you to the analysts and fix a meeting with one or more over drinks.
Good luck.
At Alesia, the Romans were outnumbered 5.5 to 1
Best of luck mate and let him do most of the talking if you can would be my advice.
I also think your numerical comparison is a little on the generous side to the Romans (for Cannae, it's been too long since I read about Caesar for me to comment on Alesia).
Interviewers who like to talk never fail to employ themselves.
UKIP, 'pile'-ing up the votes for second places.
The GMB union, one of the UK's largest, said union members and Labour activists would be alarmed that Tory donors, bankers and businesspeople linked to the intelligence services were on Better Together's latest list of backers.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/16/better-together-donor-list-scottish-independence
Con -14
Lab +6
Swing = 10%, not 15% as per thread header.
F&H is, as others have said, unusual in that, as Michael Howard's seat, it was more vulnerable to national factors than BR&L. In 1997, Howard got 39% (John Aspinall stood as an independent) but that vote rebounded to 45% in 2001 and 54% (when Howard was Conservative leader) in 2005. 35% would represent a small slide from 1997.
I would argue that while Crewe looks very good for Labour, Yarmouth's numbers should be ringing alarm bells aplenty. The 37% Labour share equates to their 1979 and 1992 number when they lost comfortably to the Conservatives. The huge rise in UKIP distorts the scene considerably but that will be far more heartening for the Conservatives in terms of swing and potential than Crewe.
Not sure when I'll be buying new books, though. Poverty, a long reading list and probably receiving a few for Christmas means it could be a while.
Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise, a booming economy that will benefit not just our fundraisers..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.
Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.
Stand PB Hodges....Stand!
You've got a great chance..
Jelly on a plate.
Come on you Spurs and Blues....
Can you see what I did there?
[I quite like not actually supporting any team/driver in F1. It's less tribal than football anyway, it must be said].
Edited extra bit: a fine quote, Miss Carola the Great.
Unlike UKIP, the Pistols hit the ground running in Scotland. An unnholy admixture of Chas'n'Dave & Skrewdriver is probably more the Kipper mark.
But realistically, West Ham can't score in a brothel at the moment, they're near the relegation zone, you're near the champs league spots.
Oh dear, who did West Ham score three against away from home?
After spoiling Strictly last weekend for you, one of my friend's has managed to reveal and spoil the last episode of Homeland, that aired in the US last night and airs in the UK on Sunday.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2347947/Poll-Ed-Miliband-confused-Bert-form-Sesame-Street.html
From the snippets I've gleaned from here and there it would seem to be the least accurate title in the world (excepting Gordon Brown's proclamation of himself as Saviour of the World).
Interesting but I wouldn't be popping the champagne corks in Labour central office.
http://www.snopes.com/rumors/bert.asp
It is indeed bad news for the Conservatives, as many have posted, but the collapse of the LibDem vote is startling. 14% to 4% in Great Yarmouth is no great shakes - from also-ran to also-ran, effectively. But from 30% to 10% in Folkestone & Hythe is terrible for them.
See Dieppe 1943 and Operation Overlord in 1944
One of the big unknowns is exactly how much UKIP can utilise tactical voting and whether faced with Labour victory in their constiuency will Conservative voters be more willing to vote tactically if they have the option of voting UKIP?
there is however still Naughton = worst player in history of the universe + 1 day
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25407830
At least nobody appears to have been harmed.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%
How come I can't change my profile name to CarolatheGreat?
Anyway, will leave you with my biggest laugh of the day, a chrisdeerinRT: 11/10 RT @TheLadBible: Welling vs Maidstone, goalkeeper just let in a soft goal. Non league fans at their best pic.twitter.com/Intmn4HYCq
(Not directed at you btw... I've got over the spoiler).
Pop away, Compouter!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=V22_yC6Na30
He's going to have plenty of time to play Fruit Ninja come 2015
Signed: A. Pedant.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
Show me the crossover.......Show me the crossover!
I meant 1942.
twitter.com/MirrorJames/status/412705410206806017
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/watch-lord-hanningfield-new-expenses-2934895
If I were looking at a bet, I'd have a look at every seat where the LDs polled 15% or less in 2010 and consider them a potential lost deposit in 2015.
As for the YouGov poll which will doubtless give the Conservative majority on here a lift - it sits in startk contrast to today's Populsu number (40-33) and is the first poll for some time with the Tory number above 35 but we'll see.
Tottenham’s favoured options for a long-term appointment include Cesare Prandelli, the Italy coach, Fabio Capello, who is in charge of Russia, and Mauricio Pochettino, the Southampton manager, but none is expected to be available until the summer. Sherwood will be assisted by Steffen Freund, who was assistant to Villas-Boas.
2. PB Tories and Dan Hodges say it's a disaster and unravelling
3. Miliband gets a 3-month bump.
PB Tories then say it's a disaster because the poll bump is fading away.
You don't think he can pull any more populist policies out, but then you didn't like the energy price freeze in the first place so it's not surprising.
Cameron can't make the sort of promises and policies Miliband can.Ed would just have to pull out rail nationalisation or something to get another small boost, then the Tories would be scrambling to defend the impoverished railway owners, promising economic disaster, then a few weeks later support Cameron's watered down version.
And there's no such as peaking early, if she can't maintain my pace, whose fault is that?
Edit: It is the lagershed innit?
Steady on the economy
Minor changes on the NHS
Action on Europe and Immigration
Protect pensions
Ed`s the unknown factor.
5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6 = average 5.2.
So 2% is not a massive outlier.
Sure it's highly likely the lead will be back up to 5% to 7% tomorrow but even so it is still an encouraging poll for Con.
It takes its place in the average - average of today's YouGov and Populus is a Lab lead of 4.5% - which is a further edging down of the lead - and a continuation of the recent trend.
That said, for me the interesting divergence between Populus and YouGov relates to the combined Conservative-UKIP share. Populus has it at 41% but YouGov has 49% which strikes me as a huge difference.