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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

Tonight we’ve got four new Alan Bown funded specific constituency polls carried out by Survation and the message is not good for the blues. Bown is a UKIP donor and national office holder.

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles

Grim for the Tories.

Quincel

The Survation web-page with the details mentions links to the tables of the "7 polls published so far". More to come?

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

The Survation web-page with the details mentions links to the tables of the "7 polls published so far". More to come?

Three have already been published prior to today

Here

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/03/another-polling-blow-for-the-tories-in-phase-2-of-the-con-marginals-polling-funded-by-a-ukip-donor/

and here

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/11/27/ukip-within-5-points-of-taking-thanet-south-according-to-new-constituency-poll-con-slips-from-1st-to-3rd/

Morris_Dancer

FPT (Curse of the new thread):
Good evening, everyone.

Mr. Eagles, I believe Gustavus Adolphus was a Swedish chap. TA Dodge wrote a bio/history of his wars. Keep meaning to find it.

Annoyingly some new versions of Dodge's histories have been released and they're enormously abridged (but don't say so). That kind of thing really pisses me off.

On-topic: this may narrow. Right now Labour benefit hugely (although not quite exclusively, thanks to UKIP) from any voters not pro-Coalition. When the time comes to make a decision, hopefully people will shudder at the prospect of PM Miliband and vote for someone else.

MaxPB

FPT:

AveryLP said:

A few words of caution, Max. Deliberately devil's advocate to prompt a response.

No bank executive however senior has the power (nor should have the power) to offer employment to an individual met for the first time outside the bank in a purely social environment. This doesn't mean that the offer isn't genuine just that it will be "subject to contract" and you will almost certainly need to go through a formal interview and assessment process both at line management and HR levels before any offer can be formalised. Treat the offer as an invitation "to come in for a chat" at this stage.

A good analyst will first do his own analysis of any job offer and employer first. By asking for advice here you are doing that, but try to meet analysts of your age and proposed seniority first. Generally an analyst will work shorter hours than, say, those in corporate finance or in trading divisions, but there is a clear relationship between reward and effort and you are likely to be sucked into a hot house competitive culture if you want to progress.

Large organisations rarely thank those that commit to their success. And banks are amongst the worst offenders. Take a job on your terms only: i.e. if it makes sense to you at the time. Don't expect more from your employer and certainly don't fall for any of the paternalistic career path and lifetime support crap pedalled by HR executives. The City pays high so it is free to hire and fire. And there are few fifty year old equity analysts taking the tube into the City in the morning.

Are you a big company man or do you prefer the relationships and freedoms involved in working in a smaller more personal unit? Most of the friends I knew who started in equity analysis at large city institutions are now working for themselves doing something completely different (setting up a vineyard for example). Some have migrated to hedge funds where they are partners in much smaller units. Only one or two have survived the original corporate jungle and have become senior executives (one to be fair is not yet 50).

My final word is to go into any offer with your eyes open and your expectations real. Don't focus only on the money, or if you do, fix only on the short term and keep your options open for the future.

All said, go for it if the job offer is genuine and you think that there is a fit between your needs and the opportunity. Working in the City is an unquestioned opportunity to accelerate your climb up the money tree.

Thanks for taking the time ALP.

Oh don't get me wrong my eyes are open. I don't see myself being in the same job in 5 years time. For me it's a short to medium term move that may help my future career outside of banking as I will gain experience outside of software development.

He has arranged the meeting for 4pm tomorrow at his office. He assured me it's not an interview and to dress casually...

TheScreamingEagles

@Mr Dancer

The Battle of Breitenfeld was one of the better military victories in history, up there with the Battle of Alesia, in defeating a numerically superior opponent.

Quincel

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

The Survation web-page with the details mentions links to the tables of the "7 polls published so far". More to come?

Three have already been published prior to today

Here

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/03/another-polling-blow-for-the-tories-in-phase-2-of-the-con-marginals-polling-funded-by-a-ukip-donor/

and here

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/11/27/ukip-within-5-points-of-taking-thanet-south-according-to-new-constituency-poll-con-slips-from-1st-to-3rd/

I know, I meant the phrase "so far" is suggestive, not the number 7.

TheScreamingEagles

Quincel said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Quincel said:

The Survation web-page with the details mentions links to the tables of the "7 polls published so far". More to come?

Three have already been published prior to today

Here

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/12/03/another-polling-blow-for-the-tories-in-phase-2-of-the-con-marginals-polling-funded-by-a-ukip-donor/

and here

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/11/27/ukip-within-5-points-of-taking-thanet-south-according-to-new-constituency-poll-con-slips-from-1st-to-3rd/

I know, I meant the phrase "so far" is suggestive, not the number 7.

Sorry, I'm not having a very good evening so far.

I believe it is 8 in total.

So one more to go.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, why quote such an obscure battle rather than Cannae? And if you were going for obscurity Arausio would be better.

Adolphus is probably too modern. I've begun reading (slowly) Vegetius' military thingummyjig. If there's a cheap version I might try Fronto next.

AveryLP

MaxPB said:

FPT:

AveryLP said:

A few words of caution, Max. Deliberately devil's advocate to prompt a response.

No bank executive however senior has the power (nor should have the power) to offer employment to an individual met for the first time outside the bank in a purely social environment. This doesn't mean that the offer isn't genuine just that it will be "subject to contract" and you will almost certainly need to go through a formal interview and assessment process both at line management and HR levels before any offer can be formalised. Treat the offer as an invitation "to come in for a chat" at this stage.

A good analyst will first do his own analysis of any job offer and employer first. By asking for advice here you are doing that, but try to meet analysts of your age and proposed seniority first. Generally an analyst will work shorter hours than, say, those in corporate finance or in trading divisions, but there is a clear relationship between reward and effort and you are likely to be sucked into a hot house competitive culture if you want to progress.

Large organisations rarely thank those that commit to their success. And banks are amongst the worst offenders. Take a job on your terms only: i.e. if it makes sense to you at the time. Don't expect more from your employer and certainly don't fall for any of the paternalistic career path and lifetime support crap pedalled by HR executives. The City pays high so it is free to hire and fire. And there are few fifty year old equity analysts taking the tube into the City in the morning.

Are you a big company man or do you prefer the relationships and freedoms involved in working in a smaller more personal unit? Most of the friends I knew who started in equity analysis at large city institutions are now working for themselves doing something completely different (setting up a vineyard for example). Some have migrated to hedge funds where they are partners in much smaller units. Only one or two have survived the original corporate jungle and have become senior executives (one to be fair is not yet 50).

My final word is to go into any offer with your eyes open and your expectations real. Don't focus only on the money, or if you do, fix only on the short term and keep your options open for the future.

All said, go for it if the job offer is genuine and you think that there is a fit between your needs and the opportunity. Working in the City is an unquestioned opportunity to accelerate your climb up the money tree.

Thanks for taking the time ALP.

Oh don't get me wrong my eyes are open. I don't see myself being in the same job in 5 years time. For me it's a short to medium term move that may help my future career outside of banking as I will gain experience outside of software development.

He has arranged the meeting for 4pm tomorrow at his office. He assured me it's not an interview and to dress casually...

Max

The informal chat is the right next step. Ask him, if you can, to introduce you to the analysts and fix a meeting with one or more over drinks.

Good luck.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, why quote such an obscure battle rather than Cannae? And if you were going for obscurity Arausio would be better.

Adolphus is probably too modern. I've begun reading (slowly) Vegetius' military thingummyjig. If there's a cheap version I might try Fronto next.

Cannae, the Carthiginians were outnumbered 1.72 to 1

At Alesia, the Romans were outnumbered 5.5 to 1

MikeK

UKIP stands firmly anchored in the British political firmament.

Bobajob

MaxPB said:

FPT:

AveryLP said:

A few words of caution, Max. Deliberately devil's advocate to prompt a response.

No bank executive however senior has the power (nor should have the power) to offer employment to an individual met for the first time outside the bank in a purely social environment. This doesn't mean that the offer isn't genuine just that it will be "subject to contract" and you will almost certainly need to go through a formal interview and assessment process both at line management and HR levels before any offer can be formalised. Treat the offer as an invitation "to come in for a chat" at this stage.

A good analyst will first do his own analysis of any job offer and employer first. By asking for advice here you are doing that, but try to meet analysts of your age and proposed seniority first. Generally an analyst will work shorter hours than, say, those in corporate finance or in trading divisions, but there is a clear relationship between reward and effort and you are likely to be sucked into a hot house competitive culture if you want to progress.

Large organisations rarely thank those that commit to their success. And banks are amongst the worst offenders. Take a job on your terms only: i.e. if it makes sense to you at the time. Don't expect more from your employer and certainly don't fall for any of the paternalistic career path and lifetime support crap pedalled by HR executives. The City pays high so it is free to hire and fire. And there are few fifty year old equity analysts taking the tube into the City in the morning.

Are you a big company man or do you prefer the relationships and freedoms involved in working in a smaller more personal unit? Most of the friends I knew who started in equity analysis at large city institutions are now working for themselves doing something completely different (setting up a vineyard for example). Some have migrated to hedge funds where they are partners in much smaller units. Only one or two have survived the original corporate jungle and have become senior executives (one to be fair is not yet 50).

My final word is to go into any offer with your eyes open and your expectations real. Don't focus only on the money, or if you do, fix only on the short term and keep your options open for the future.

All said, go for it if the job offer is genuine and you think that there is a fit between your needs and the opportunity. Working in the City is an unquestioned opportunity to accelerate your climb up the money tree.

Thanks for taking the time ALP.

Oh don't get me wrong my eyes are open. I don't see myself being in the same job in 5 years time. For me it's a short to medium term move that may help my future career outside of banking as I will gain experience outside of software development.

He has arranged the meeting for 4pm tomorrow at his office. He assured me it's not an interview and to dress casually...

Max, I've had a few of those. I tend to go sharp suit and open neck in that scenario. Covers most bases. There's nothing worse sartorially IMO for a bloke than being told to dress casually
Best of luck mate and let him do most of the talking if you can would be my advice.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, there were few Carthaginians fighting. Mostly the cavalry was Numidian and the infantry Celtiberian, Liby-Phoenician and Gallic. And consider the opponents. Roman citizens fighting in full armour are rather more impressive than Celtic tribesmen.

I also think your numerical comparison is a little on the generous side to the Romans (for Cannae, it's been too long since I read about Caesar for me to comment on Alesia).

AveryLP

Bobajob said:

MaxPB said:

FPT:

AveryLP said:

...

Thanks for taking the time ALP.

Oh don't get me wrong my eyes are open. I don't see myself being in the same job in 5 years time. For me it's a short to medium term move that may help my future career outside of banking as I will gain experience outside of software development.

He has arranged the meeting for 4pm tomorrow at his office. He assured me it's not an interview and to dress casually...

...let him do most of the talking if you can would be my advice.

Excellent advice, Bobajob.

Interviewers who like to talk never fail to employ themselves.

Theuniondivvie

MikeK said:

UKIP stands firmly anchored in the British political firmament.

Initially I read that as 'fundament'.

UKIP, 'pile'-ing up the votes for second places.

TheScreamingEagles

Senior trade union leaders have said the Better Together campaign against Scottish independence risks being tarnished by significant donations from Tory donors and senior financiers.

The GMB union, one of the UK's largest, said union members and Labour activists would be alarmed that Tory donors, bankers and businesspeople linked to the intelligence services were on Better Together's latest list of backers.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/16/better-together-donor-list-scottish-independence

JohnLilburne

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, why quote such an obscure battle rather than Cannae? And if you were going for obscurity Arausio would be better.

Adolphus is probably too modern. I've begun reading (slowly) Vegetius' military thingummyjig. If there's a cheap version I might try Fronto next.

If you want a good introduction to the 40 Years War (in which Gustav Adolf played a big part) Peter H Wilson's Europe's Tradegy is a good start. But lacks maps, which is annoying as the action shifts from Bohemia to Schleswig to the Rhine and back again. Vegetius is worth a read, though.

MikeL

Bognor Regis swing is wrong in the thread header.

Con -14
Lab +6

Swing = 10%, not 15% as per thread header.

stodge

I commented on the Crewe numbers in the last thread. Looking at Bognor Regis & Littlehampton (BR&L), it's not as rock-solid Conservative as you might think. Yes, Nick Gibb got 51% in 2010 but the Tory share was 44-45% throughout the Labour years so the drop to 37% isnt as drastic as it seems.

F&H is, as others have said, unusual in that, as Michael Howard's seat, it was more vulnerable to national factors than BR&L. In 1997, Howard got 39% (John Aspinall stood as an independent) but that vote rebounded to 45% in 2001 and 54% (when Howard was Conservative leader) in 2005. 35% would represent a small slide from 1997.

I would argue that while Crewe looks very good for Labour, Yarmouth's numbers should be ringing alarm bells aplenty. The 37% Labour share equates to their 1979 and 1992 number when they lost comfortably to the Conservatives. The huge rise in UKIP distorts the scene considerably but that will be far more heartening for the Conservatives in terms of swing and potential than Crewe.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Lilburne, cheers for the recommendation.

Not sure when I'll be buying new books, though. Poverty, a long reading list and probably receiving a few for Christmas means it could be a while.

compouter1

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise, a booming economy that will benefit not just our fundraisers..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

Scrapheap_as_was

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

MonikerDiCanio

Theuniondivvie said:

MikeK said:

UKIP stands firmly anchored in the British political firmament.

Initially I read that as 'fundament'.

UKIP, 'pile'-ing up the votes for second places.

You're obviously disturbed by UKIP. Like a Bay City Rollers' fan in 1976 hearing her brother talking about the Sex Pistols.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

I've backed Hoddle, but it looks like Tim Sherwood for the rest of the season.

compouter1

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

AVB to Spurs what Messina and Crosby are to the Tories.......spent loads of money and in a worse position than when they come in.

Scrapheap_as_was

Gibber gibber wibble wobble.

Jelly on a plate.

Come on you Spurs and Blues....

Easterross

Evening all, while we Tories shouldn't be complacent, I well remember 1980-1982 when we were losing ultra safe seats in by-elections to the then new kids on the block the SDP. In 1983 we took them back. The 500 or so people in each constituency who participated were not being asked to elect a government. Let's see what happens in 2015. I suspect Tory holds across the board.

TheScreamingEagles

I've also backed Spurs to beat West Ham on Wednesday

compouter1

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Gibber gibber wibble wobble.

Jelly on a plate.

Come on you Spurs and Blues....

Both going in the wrong direction and being humped by the reds.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

I've backed Hoddle, but it looks like Tim Sherwood for the rest of the season.

Tim's got a great chance if he can get some results before the FA Cup match...

Scrapheap_as_was

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

AVB to Spurs what Messina and Crosby are to the Tories.......spent loads of money and in a worse position than when they come in.

I thought that was all Labour Governments.....


Can you see what I did there?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, are you trying to upset Spurs fans even more? Haven't they suffered enough?

[I quite like not actually supporting any team/driver in F1. It's less tribal than football anyway, it must be said].

compouter1

Easterross said:

Evening all, while we Tories shouldn't be complacent, I well remember 1980-1982 when we were losing ultra safe seats in by-elections to the then new kids on the block the SDP. In 1983 we took them back. The 500 or so people in each constituency who participated were not being asked to elect a government. Let's see what happens in 2015. I suspect Tory holds across the board.

http://www.aawaj.com/community/image/web/gallery/aononno_1281037854_04C091.jpg

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've also backed Spurs to beat West Ham on Wednesday

TSE you'll be renamed ToSsEr if you keep jinxing my effing team like this....

Carola

I beg you take courage, Tories; the brave soul can mend even disaster.

Morris_Dancer

Which reminds me, the tyre test is 17-19 December. Pirelli will be trying to make them pretty hard/durable, I suspect. Only problem is that that is contrary to what the FIA wants (a 2 stop average, I think).

Edited extra bit: a fine quote, Miss Carola the Great.

compouter1

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

AVB to Spurs what Messina and Crosby are to the Tories.......spent loads of money and in a worse position than when they come in.

I thought that was all Labour Governments.....


Can you see what I did there?

Lol! I did see what you did there. If only we can see was Bert and Ernie are supposed to be doing for the Blues for the hundreds of thousands of pounds. Go Funky Cold and Lynton.

Theuniondivvie

MonikerDiCanio said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MikeK said:

UKIP stands firmly anchored in the British political firmament.

Initially I read that as 'fundament'.

UKIP, 'pile'-ing up the votes for second places.

You're obviously disturbed by UKIP. Like a Bay City Rollers' fan in 1976 hearing her brother talking about the Sex Pistols.

Lol, say it wasn't so little sister!
Unlike UKIP, the Pistols hit the ground running in Scotland. An unnholy admixture of Chas'n'Dave & Skrewdriver is probably more the Kipper mark.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've also backed Spurs to beat West Ham on Wednesday

TSE you'll be renamed ToSsEr if you keep jinxing my effing team like this....

Oi, my strategy of backing whoever Liverpool are playing is yielding great success this season.

But realistically, West Ham can't score in a brothel at the moment, they're near the relegation zone, you're near the champs league spots.

JohnLilburne

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Lilburne, cheers for the recommendation.

Not sure when I'll be buying new books, though. Poverty, a long reading list and probably receiving a few for Christmas means it could be a while.

It took me a while to read. You learn a lot about the Holy Roman empire - the war itself doesn't break out until about page 275.

MikeK

Look in the Oven!

Thought this was rather funny pic.twitter.com/0ebqiJR81z

— Peter Kerr (@tyres2u) December 16, 2013

compouter1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've also backed Spurs to beat West Ham on Wednesday

TSE you'll be renamed ToSsEr if you keep jinxing my effing team like this....

Oi, my strategy of backing whoever Liverpool are playing is yielding great success this season.

But realistically, West Ham can't score in a brothel at the moment, they're near the relegation zone, you're near the champs league spots.

Oh dear, who did West Ham score three against away from home?

TheScreamingEagles

Carola said:

I beg you take courage, Tories; the brave soul can mend even disaster.

Payback and Karma are bitches.

After spoiling Strictly last weekend for you, one of my friend's has managed to reveal and spoil the last episode of Homeland, that aired in the US last night and airs in the UK on Sunday.

Scrapheap_as_was

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

AVB to Spurs what Messina and Crosby are to the Tories.......spent loads of money and in a worse position than when they come in.

I thought that was all Labour Governments.....


Can you see what I did there?

Lol! I did see what you did there. If only we can see was Bert and Ernie are supposed to be doing for the Blues for the hundreds of thousands of pounds. Go Funky Cold and Lynton.

Interesting you think of Bert and Ernie.... is this why?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2347947/Poll-Ed-Miliband-confused-Bert-form-Sesame-Street.html

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Lilburne, I recall someone or other telling me that the Holy Roman Empire wasn't holy, wasn't Roman, and wasn't an empire.

From the snippets I've gleaned from here and there it would seem to be the least accurate title in the world (excepting Gordon Brown's proclamation of himself as Saviour of the World).

compouter1

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

AVB to Spurs what Messina and Crosby are to the Tories.......spent loads of money and in a worse position than when they come in.

I thought that was all Labour Governments.....


Can you see what I did there?

Lol! I did see what you did there. If only we can see was Bert and Ernie are supposed to be doing for the Blues for the hundreds of thousands of pounds. Go Funky Cold and Lynton.

Interesting you think of Bert and Ernie.... is this why?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2347947/Poll-Ed-Miliband-confused-Bert-form-Sesame-Street.html

I was going to say Waldorf and Stadler, however, they were usually good at spotting a poor comedy show.

FrankBooth

Is it not likely that a major UKIP donor would be funding polls in seats where UKIP is likely to be doing disproportionately well? Going by this poll UKIP should be on for about a 24% vote share. I think not. And if we're dealing with seats where UKIP are doing well, then the likelihood is that the Tories are doing badly and so so the Con > Lab swing will be disproportionate.

Interesting but I wouldn't be popping the champagne corks in Labour central office.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

compouter1 said:

Stand PB Hodges...Stand!

Don't forget between now and the GE there will be swingback, better Economy, Ed will be crapper, Balls will be even crapper, Dave will look fantastic, the Universal Credit will be a success(oh wait there), the housing boom, wages will be 10% above inflation, petrol will be 50p a litre, there will be a crossover in the lead of the national opinion polls at Xmas(Cheers Avery,) UKIP will fall, Lib Dems will rise..........hold on, hold on......Dan Hodges has just been informed that an unnamed Tory informant has told him the Tory Party have done a similar poll which shows a 12% swing to the Tories.

Ignore all these Grudian, BBC lefty polls.

Stand PB Hodges....Stand!

With that level of insight, easy communication and articulacy, please apply to D. Levy, WH Lane.

You've got a great chance..

AVB to Spurs what Messina and Crosby are to the Tories.......spent loads of money and in a worse position than when they come in.

I thought that was all Labour Governments.....


Can you see what I did there?

Lol! I did see what you did there. If only we can see was Bert and Ernie are supposed to be doing for the Blues for the hundreds of thousands of pounds. Go Funky Cold and Lynton.

Interesting you think of Bert and Ernie.... is this why?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2347947/Poll-Ed-Miliband-confused-Bert-form-Sesame-Street.html

Ed Miliband Bert was linked to Osama Bin Laden

http://www.snopes.com/rumors/bert.asp

El_Capitano

This is a fascinating poll.

It is indeed bad news for the Conservatives, as many have posted, but the collapse of the LibDem vote is startling. 14% to 4% in Great Yarmouth is no great shakes - from also-ran to also-ran, effectively. But from 30% to 10% in Folkestone & Hythe is terrible for them.

TheScreamingEagles

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've also backed Spurs to beat West Ham on Wednesday

TSE you'll be renamed ToSsEr if you keep jinxing my effing team like this....

Oi, my strategy of backing whoever Liverpool are playing is yielding great success this season.

But realistically, West Ham can't score in a brothel at the moment, they're near the relegation zone, you're near the champs league spots.

Oh dear, who did West Ham score three against away from home?

Lulling them into a fall sense of security.

See Dieppe 1943 and Operation Overlord in 1944

smithersjones2013

On topic. Hmmmmm Farage has said he will look to the Libdems election tactics to build his base. Looking at those and previous Bown polls I can sense how a load of 'Only UKIP can stop the Tories/ Labour here' bar chart leaflets flooding numerous constituencies!

One of the big unknowns is exactly how much UKIP can utilise tactical voting and whether faced with Labour victory in their constiuency will Conservative voters be more willing to vote tactically if they have the option of voting UKIP?

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've also backed Spurs to beat West Ham on Wednesday

TSE you'll be renamed ToSsEr if you keep jinxing my effing team like this....

Oi, my strategy of backing whoever Liverpool are playing is yielding great success this season.

But realistically, West Ham can't score in a brothel at the moment, they're near the relegation zone, you're near the champs league spots.

Our only fit CB is suspended for this game - yes it's Dawson who is as mobile as a [insert large building of choice] - so we have no CBs at all potentially, no Sandro or Paulinho either.

there is however still Naughton = worst player in history of the universe + 1 day

Morris_Dancer

Fire bomb in Northern Ireland:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-25407830

At least nobody appears to have been harmed.

TheScreamingEagles

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Morris_Dancer

Never fear, Mr. Eagles, Red Ed's policy of smashing capitalism and confiscating profits wherever they may be found will see him through.

Carola

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carola said:

I beg you take courage, Tories; the brave soul can mend even disaster.

Payback and Karma are bitches.

After spoiling Strictly last weekend for you, one of my friend's has managed to reveal and spoil the last episode of Homeland, that aired in the US last night and airs in the UK on Sunday.

See? SEE? What goes around...

How come I can't change my profile name to CarolatheGreat?

Anyway, will leave you with my biggest laugh of the day, a chrisdeerinRT: 11/10 RT @TheLadBible: Welling vs Maidstone, goalkeeper just let in a soft goal. Non league fans at their best pic.twitter.com/Intmn4HYCq

(Not directed at you btw... I've got over the spoiler).

compouter1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Christ on a bike, it will be a subsection orgy on here tonight. Labour still on 38%.....that means I'm happy as at that percentage there can be no Tory government.

AveryLP

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Compouter is beginning to realise that the "champagne" he is drinking is 'asti spoumante'.

Pop away, Compouter!

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've also backed Spurs to beat West Ham on Wednesday

TSE you'll be renamed ToSsEr if you keep jinxing my effing team like this....

Oi, my strategy of backing whoever Liverpool are playing is yielding great success this season.

But realistically, West Ham can't score in a brothel at the moment, they're near the relegation zone, you're near the champs league spots.

Our only fit CB is suspended for this game - yes it's Dawson who is as mobile as a [insert large building of choice] - so we have no CBs at all potentially, no Sandro or Paulinho either.

there is however still Naughton = worst player in history of the universe + 1 day

Bah, he's no Djimi Traore, who can ever forget Traore's Cruyff turn on his own goal line?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=V22_yC6Na30

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Ignore that - let's focus on a political party sponsored poll.....and whether Ed Miliband should launch a populist campaign on the crisis in the unemployment rate of Premier League football managers...

compouter1

AveryLP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Compouter is beginning to realise that the "champagne" he is drinking is 'asti spoumante'.

Pop away, Compouter!

I do believe you are running out of polls Mr Avery....there is only 250 between now and the election.

MarkSenior

El_Capitano said:

This is a fascinating poll.

It is indeed bad news for the Conservatives, as many have posted, but the collapse of the LibDem vote is startling. 14% to 4% in Great Yarmouth is no great shakes - from also-ran to also-ran, effectively. But from 30% to 10% in Folkestone & Hythe is terrible for them.

But it is not a fall from 30 to 15% . The sample which Survation do not weight for past vote had the Lib Dems at only 21% .in the 2010 GE

SMukesh

Nice one Youguv.The Tories needed that!

TheScreamingEagles

Carola said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carola said:

I beg you take courage, Tories; the brave soul can mend even disaster.

Payback and Karma are bitches.

After spoiling Strictly last weekend for you, one of my friend's has managed to reveal and spoil the last episode of Homeland, that aired in the US last night and airs in the UK on Sunday.

See? SEE? What goes around...

How come I can't change my profile name to CarolatheGreat?

Anyway, will leave you with my biggest laugh of the day, a chrisdeerinRT: 11/10 RT @TheLadBible: Welling vs Maidstone, goalkeeper just let in a soft goal. Non league fans at their best pic.twitter.com/Intmn4HYCq

(Not directed at you btw... I've got over the spoiler).

I promise I won't spoil the final.

Freggles

THERE IS STILL GOOD NEWS FOR DAVID CAMERON

He's going to have plenty of time to play Fruit Ninja come 2015

compouter1

I can see Yougov becoming the new PB Hodges "Gold Standard" if we get any more like that.

TheScreamingEagles

Bah, there's only 4 more YouGov polls this year.

TheScreamingEagles

Overall I think this 2% lead is much of an outlier as the 12% lead was.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lulling them into a fall sense of security.

See Dieppe 1943 and Operation Overlord in 1944

What happened in Dieppe during 1943?

Signed: A. Pedant.

compouter1

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Ignore that - let's focus on a political party sponsored poll.....and whether Ed Miliband should launch a populist campaign on the crisis in the unemployment rate of Premier League football managers...

Lets focus on the polls then.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

Show me the crossover.......Show me the crossover!

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

This is starting to look disastrous for Labour. Miliband must sack Balls! Since his shambolic response to the Autumn Statement the political initiative has totally swung back to Osborne and the Tories. Moreover, all the kudos Miliband got from his energy-freeze thing has been frittered away. This can't be allowed to continue.

compouter1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Overall I think this 2% lead is much of an outlier as the 12% lead was.

Back to 7% tomorrow which will be followed by....poll what poll.

compouter1

Stark_Dawning said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

This is starting to look disastrous for Labour. Miliband must sack Balls! Since his shambolic response to the Autumn Statement the political initiative has totally swung back to Osborne and the Tories. Moreover, all the kudos Miliband got from his energy-freeze thing has been frittered away. This can't be allowed to continue.

LOL!

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lulling them into a fall sense of security.

See Dieppe 1943 and Operation Overlord in 1944

What happened in Dieppe during 1943?

Signed: A. Pedant.

I'm not having a very good night am I?

I meant 1942.

Easterross

compouter1 said:

AveryLP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Compouter is beginning to realise that the "champagne" he is drinking is 'asti spoumante'.

Pop away, Compouter!

I do believe you are running out of polls Mr Avery....there is only 250 between now and the election.

Are you also a part-time wine salesman part-time Cheshire farmer?

MonikerDiCanio

TheScreamingEagles said:

Overall I think this 2% lead is much of an outlier as the 12% lead was.

The 2% lead is in line with the trend , the 12% lead was freakish.

TheScreamingEagles

Another expenses scandal, involving the criminal Lord Hanningfield

twitter.com/MirrorJames/status/412705410206806017

Stark_Dawning

Let's not forget: in 2010 wise heads were predicting that by now Labour's lead would be double the Lib Dem and Tory polling combined.

Scrapheap_as_was

compouter1 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Ignore that - let's focus on a political party sponsored poll.....and whether Ed Miliband should launch a populist campaign on the crisis in the unemployment rate of Premier League football managers...

Lets focus on the polls then.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

Show me the crossover.......Show me the crossover!

Make your bleedin' mind up for god's sake!

MarkSenior

MarkSenior said:

El_Capitano said:

This is a fascinating poll.

It is indeed bad news for the Conservatives, as many have posted, but the collapse of the LibDem vote is startling. 14% to 4% in Great Yarmouth is no great shakes - from also-ran to also-ran, effectively. But from 30% to 10% in Folkestone & Hythe is terrible for them.

But it is not a fall from 30 to 15% . The sample which Survation do not weight for past vote had the Lib Dems at only 21% .in the 2010 GE

Note also the Bognor Regis/Littlehampton sample falsely has Labour narrowly in 2nd place at the 2010 GE

compouter1

Easterross said:

compouter1 said:

AveryLP said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cross over soon? only 5 more polls left this year by yougov

Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 1m
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead drops to two points - the lowest labour lead since Sept conferences:
CON 36%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%

Compouter is beginning to realise that the "champagne" he is drinking is 'asti spoumante'.

Pop away, Compouter!

I do believe you are running out of polls Mr Avery....there is only 250 between now and the election.

Are you also a part-time wine salesman part-time Cheshire farmer?

The man is banned on here and still people post about him. Tim is the PB Hodges opium.

TheScreamingEagles

TheScreamingEagles said:

Another expenses scandal, involving the criminal Lord Hanningfield

twitter.com/MirrorJames/status/412705410206806017

Here's the Mirror story

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/watch-lord-hanningfield-new-expenses-2934895

Scrapheap_as_was

compouter1 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Overall I think this 2% lead is much of an outlier as the 12% lead was.

Back to 7% tomorrow which will be followed by....poll what poll.

OK - £500 at Evens, I say it'll be 6% or less and you say it'll be 7% or more?

Floater

I have family in the Bognor area and talking to them I can fully understand why UKIP are pulling in supporters there.

stodge

El_Capitano said:

This is a fascinating poll.

It is indeed bad news for the Conservatives, as many have posted, but the collapse of the LibDem vote is startling. 14% to 4% in Great Yarmouth is no great shakes - from also-ran to also-ran, effectively. But from 30% to 10% in Folkestone & Hythe is terrible for them.

The collapse of the LD vote in F&H predates the Coalition and I believe from controlling the Council in the 1990s and briefly in the early 2000s, the Party is down to just one Councillor so the fall in vote comes as little surprise.

If I were looking at a bet, I'd have a look at every seat where the LDs polled 15% or less in 2010 and consider them a potential lost deposit in 2015.

As for the YouGov poll which will doubtless give the Conservative majority on here a lift - it sits in startk contrast to today's Populsu number (40-33) and is the first poll for some time with the Tory number above 35 but we'll see.

TheScreamingEagles

From the Times

Tottenham’s favoured options for a long-term appointment include Cesare Prandelli, the Italy coach, Fabio Capello, who is in charge of Russia, and Mauricio Pochettino, the Southampton manager, but none is expected to be available until the summer. Sherwood will be assisted by Steffen Freund, who was assistant to Villas-Boas.

Theuniondivvie

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lulling them into a fall sense of security.

See Dieppe 1943 and Operation Overlord in 1944

What happened in Dieppe during 1943?

Signed: A. Pedant.

I'm not having a very good night am I?

I meant 1942.

Whatever happens, don't peak too late (or early for that matter).

TheScreamingEagles

Also Rafa Benitez on the shortlist

Freggles

1. Ed talks about the Energy Price Freeze
2. PB Tories and Dan Hodges say it's a disaster and unravelling
3. Miliband gets a 3-month bump.

PB Tories then say it's a disaster because the poll bump is fading away.
You don't think he can pull any more populist policies out, but then you didn't like the energy price freeze in the first place so it's not surprising.

Cameron can't make the sort of promises and policies Miliband can.Ed would just have to pull out rail nationalisation or something to get another small boost, then the Tories would be scrambling to defend the impoverished railway owners, promising economic disaster, then a few weeks later support Cameron's watered down version.

TheScreamingEagles

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Lulling them into a fall sense of security.

See Dieppe 1943 and Operation Overlord in 1944

What happened in Dieppe during 1943?

Signed: A. Pedant.

I'm not having a very good night am I?

I meant 1942.

Whatever happens, don't peak too late (or early for that matter).

I'm at a stage where I'm happy if I peak at all.

And there's no such as peaking early, if she can't maintain my pace, whose fault is that?

Edit: It is the lagershed innit?

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Times

Tottenham’s favoured options for a long-term appointment include Cesare Prandelli, the Italy coach, Fabio Capello, who is in charge of Russia, and Mauricio Pochettino, the Southampton manager, but none is expected to be available until the summer. Sherwood will be assisted by Steffen Freund, who was assistant to Villas-Boas.

Ian Holloway or Neil Warnock would be a laugh wouldn't they too.... Lets sign up the chuckle brothers or Ant and Dec. Alan Hansen will be after a job in the summer, sort our defence out and we'd never score again....

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the Times

Tottenham’s favoured options for a long-term appointment include Cesare Prandelli, the Italy coach, Fabio Capello, who is in charge of Russia, and Mauricio Pochettino, the Southampton manager, but none is expected to be available until the summer. Sherwood will be assisted by Steffen Freund, who was assistant to Villas-Boas.

Ian Holloway or Neil Warnock would be a laugh wouldn't they too.... Lets sign up the chuckle brothers or Ant and Dec. Alan Hansen will be after a job in the summer, sort our defence out and we'd never score again....

They want a man with experience, I say go back to George Graham.

TGOHF

Did Ukip have visibility of which 4 seats would be polled ??????

SMukesh

Freggles said:

1. Ed talks about the Energy Price Freeze
2. PB Tories and Dan Hodges say it's a disaster and unravelling
3. Miliband gets a 3-month bump.

PB Tories then say it's a disaster because the poll bump is fading away.
You don't think he can pull any more populist policies out, but then you didn't like the energy price freeze in the first place so it's not surprising.

Cameron can't make the sort of promises and policies Miliband can.Ed would just have to pull out rail nationalisation or something to get another small boost, then the Tories would be scrambling to defend the impoverished railway owners, promising economic disaster, then a few weeks later support Cameron's watered down version.

Good point!We know what Cameron`s offering will be:
Steady on the economy
Minor changes on the NHS
Action on Europe and Immigration
Protect pensions

Ed`s the unknown factor.

TheScreamingEagles

half of the Premier League’s 20 clubs have managers — permanent or otherwise — whose experience in their present job amounts to 16 or fewer league matches. In contrast, Arsène Wenger has guided Arsenal for more than 17 years.

MikeL

Previous 6 YouGov polls had Lab leads of:

5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6 = average 5.2.

So 2% is not a massive outlier.

Sure it's highly likely the lead will be back up to 5% to 7% tomorrow but even so it is still an encouraging poll for Con.

It takes its place in the average - average of today's YouGov and Populus is a Lab lead of 4.5% - which is a further edging down of the lead - and a continuation of the recent trend.

Scrapheap_as_was

TheScreamingEagles said:

half of the Premier League’s 20 clubs have managers — permanent or otherwise — whose experience in their present job amounts to 16 or fewer league matches. In contrast, Arsène Wenger has guided Arsenal for more than 17 years.

He's out of contract in the summer though.... a reverse Sol?

stodge

MonikerDiCanio said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Overall I think this 2% lead is much of an outlier as the 12% lead was.

The 2% lead is in line with the trend , the 12% lead was freakish.

Not sure it is, Populus was showing a 7-point lead. Tonight's poll does look an outlier.

That said, for me the interesting divergence between Populus and YouGov relates to the combined Conservative-UKIP share. Populus has it at 41% but YouGov has 49% which strikes me as a huge difference.

AlastairMeeks

I'll be thinking more about the marginals polls than today's YouGov poll.