politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahea

System · February 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahead

New YouGov poll has LAB back in the leadCON 40% -2LAB 41%+3LD 8%=UKIP 4%+1

Read the full story here

CD13 · February 2018

Level pegging sounds about right. Two poor adverts for politics

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

Women changing their minds all the time...

RobD · February 2018

Gold standard revoked.

Morris_Dancer · February 2018

FPT: Mrs C, cheers for that answer. I do agree on complacency, and must admit that the Scottish referendum was also in my mind.

stevef · February 2018

The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.

TOPPING · February 2018

fpt

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Beverley_C said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Beverley_C said:

rcs1000 said:

marke09 said:
53 per cent of business leaders said the UK leaving the EU would be best for the EU economy overall, 53 per cent said it would be best for the interests of their company and 63 per cent said they favour Brexit on a personal level. http://www.cityam.com/280736/editors-notes-business-leaders-more-relaxed-brexit-than-you … via @CityAM
Interestingly, this is a survey of EU business people.
I am not surprised. They standrrent behaviour can hardly install confidence.
You do realise that the 53% was for UK business leaders?
No I do not. I took RCS1000's comment that is was an EU survey at face value.

Even so, for our business leaders to think that leaving the EU is best for the EU does not exactly sing British praises, does it?
f we leave the ERM / don't join the Euro when it's launched / rule out joining the Euro soon / hold an EU referendum / immediately after voting leave / invoke Article 50 / when we do leave.
Yes, of course. You are completely correct. The UK will become a land of milk and honey and golden sunshine.

I don't think he was suggesting that, merely that it won't be as bad as some doomsayers have predicted.
Project Fear rhetoric aside, where do you get these doomsayers' forecasts from.

AFAICS most sensible forecasts are for a few percentage points diminution in growth over the next few years or so.

Nothing that will bring doom to the country.

Now of course, a few percentage points foregone growth means billions of pounds not achieved which will likely affect those who need it most (a billion here, a billion there, etc...) but nothing for most to worry about and almost certainly nothing to affect 99% of PB Leavers, for example, who I would place in the upper decile of the country's population by wealth (those, of course, who haven't fucked off to live somewhere else, that is).
I'm glad we agree that the Treasury forecast wasn't sensible

The treasury forecast was similar to the NIESR one - 4% odd diminution in GDP vs otherwise by some date out in the future.

Only a few billion of foregone growth so nothing really to trouble us.

williamglenn · February 2018

https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/964537009372123139

SquareRoot · February 2018

Where we are is, don't look at polls singly, look at direction of travel over a period of months... that ..if you have any lingering belief in poll accuracy...

rcs1000 · February 2018

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.

You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.

rottenborough · February 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/sam_lister_/status/964537009372123139

German discovers sense of humour?

rcs1000 · February 2018

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.

Or to put it another way: oppositions aren't supposed to lose by-elections to the party of power. Extrapolating from that datapoint would lead one to be incredibly optimistic about Conservative gains from Labour in the upcoming 2017 General Election.

Oh wait.

TOPPING · February 2018

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.

Oh noooo - don't set him off again.

AlastairMeeks · February 2018

Both main parties are broadly keeping their coalition together. I doubt the ratings will change much unless the public decisively makes up its mind one way or the other about Brexit or Jeremy Corbyn steps down. Neither of those look likely to happen in the very short term.

David_Evershed · February 2018

Results for the Armthorpe By-Election held on Thursday 15 2018.

TYAS
Frank John
Labour Party
1,431 ELECTED

WILLIAMS
Martin
Independent
466

rottenborough · February 2018

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.

"why the Tories level pegging with Labour?"

I think we know the answer to that. It involves marmite.

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.

And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.

rcs1000 · February 2018

TOPPING said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Oh noooo - don't set him off again.

It's lions led by donkeys. Only the lions are actually sheep.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

It's always wise and profitable to underestimate Mrs May.

She sets the bar so low...

stevef · February 2018

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.

I keep posting the same point in response to the same sort of articles. If I posted an opposite point you would say I was contradicting myself. If repetition is what concerns you I suggest you address your criticism to remoaners who go on and on about Brexit even when it has nothing to do with the thread.

1). Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead 2 years into the parliament, not three. That was indeed the peak.
But even at this point in the parliament, previous oppositions have been further ahead than just one point.

2). Not sure what point you are making here. The fact is that jeremy Corbyn is doing worse at this point in the parliament, than previous opposition leaders who went on to lose.

In short all the polls right now are pointing to defeat at the next general election for Labour (led by Corbyn.

rottenborough · February 2018

https://twitter.com/PolitiStatsUK/status/964530532766879746

David_Evershed · February 2018

Theresa May holding talks with Angela Merkel in Berlin.

Who is seeking advice from whom?

williamglenn · February 2018

A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448

Yorkcity · February 2018

Labour held their seat in a by election in York.The Lib Dems did a lot better than 2015.Might be their coalition in national government is wearing off.As the current City of York council.Labour are the largest party.However they are in opposition , as the Conservatives and Lib Dems are in coalition to control the council.http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/15998114.Labour_hold_seat_in_Holgate_by_election/

stevef · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.

Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

I've written two threads for Sunday

1) One's a love letter to Stevef

2) Contains the greatest PB tip since I tipped Diane Abbott as Corbyn's successor.

rottenborough · February 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
I've written two threads for Sunday

1) One's a love letter to Stevef

2) Contains the greatest PB tip since I tipped Diane Abbott as Corbyn's successor.

What, greater than Hunt as next Leader?

TwistedFireStopper · February 2018

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448

Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

stevef · February 2018

This poll, and all the others recently suggests that Labour is heading for defeat in 2022.

That message may not be palatable for some, but unless there is a substantial end to the deadlock in the polls in the next 12 months, with Labour pulling ahead into a double figure leading, then there will be much shedding of tears and gnashing of tears in the Corbynista world on election night 2022.

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?

It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions away from Labour. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader, to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.

rottenborough · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

Gordon is cheating. The photo that has been morphed or whatever must be from his student days as Rector.

Andrew · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

I'm going to file that under 'things I hoped never to hear'

rcs1000 · February 2018

stevef said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
I keep posting the same point in response to the same sort of articles. If I posted an opposite point you would say I was contradicting myself. If repetition is what concerns you I suggest you address your criticism to remoaners who go on and on about Brexit even when it has nothing to do with the thread.

1). Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead 2 years into the parliament, not three. That was indeed the peak.
But even at this point in the parliament, previous oppositions have been further ahead than just one point.

2). Not sure what point you are making here. The fact is that jeremy Corbyn is doing worse at this point in the parliament, than previous opposition leaders who went on to lose.

In short all the polls right now are pointing to defeat at the next general election for Labour (led by Corbyn.

Beware of extrapolation from small datasets.

There might be a recession in 2021 and 2022, which leads to unemployment spiking to three million. Or it might be that the post Brexit economy is booming.

The Conservatives might be led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, who turns off moderate voters. The Conservatives might be led by Rory Stewart, who attracts them. Or they could be led by Mrs May.

Jeremy Corbyn could get sick, and be replaced by someone less voter repellent. Or he might not.

The LibDems might elect someone with charisma, energy and integrity. There may be some great cause - like the Iraq war was - that enables them to pick up protest votes. And there may not.

All these things could have an actual impact on the 2022 UK elections. Unlike the poll scores from eight months in.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I've written two threads for Sunday

1) One's a love letter to Stevef

2) Contains the greatest PB tip since I tipped Diane Abbott as Corbyn's successor.
What, greater than Hunt as next Leader?

I'll let you decide.

stevef · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.

Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come

TGOHF · February 2018

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768

RobD · February 2018

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448

The Wilson one is great. Still got the pipe!

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768

Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.

rottenborough · February 2018

Looks like May is about to pull another absolute policy belter:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/feb/16/theresa-may-details-tuition-fee-overhaul

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.

More than the IRA/Sinn Fein stuff?

AlastairMeeks · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

Jim Callaghan looks like the best friend of Cissie and Ada.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964533879267840009

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come

On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.

rottenborough · February 2018

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964533879267840009

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.
More than the IRA/Sinn Fein stuff?

If paid, yes. It's one thing a naive Labour MP chatting to a 'diplomat'. It's another taking payment.

It would need to be well documented, though, so that he can't simply deny it.

TGOHF · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.
More than the IRA/Sinn Fein stuff?
If paid, yes. It's one thing a naive Labour MP chatting to a 'diplomat'. It's another taking payment.

Story has legs.

stevef · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.

or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

I'm glad one of us said that.

Foxy · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

Looks a bunny boiler to me, though Ms Eden looks a bit of alright.

Yorkcity · February 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
It's always wise and profitable to underestimate Mrs May.

She sets the bar so low...

Well many set it high in April 17.Especially on here .Somebody must have lost a lot of money.However I have not read that yet.

TGOHF · February 2018

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.
or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger

She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

rottenborough said:
Looks like May is about to pull another absolute policy belter:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/feb/16/theresa-may-details-tuition-fee-overhaul

She should cut the nominal interest rate. It would cost virtually nothing, since few graduates pay off all their loans anyway. Of course it would benefit only the very well paid, but that seems to be what youngsters want.

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.
More than the IRA/Sinn Fein stuff?
If paid, yes. It's one thing a naive Labour MP chatting to a 'diplomat'. It's another taking payment.

It would need to be well documented, though, so that he can't simply deny it.

Does anyone remember whether MPs had to register financial interests back in those days?

MarqueeMark · February 2018

TGOHF said:

She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.

Nor a sneering smart-arse, which she teeters towards too much of the time.

stevef · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

rottenborough said:
Looks like May is about to pull another absolute policy belter:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/feb/16/theresa-may-details-tuition-fee-overhaul
She should cut the nominal interest rate. It would cost virtually nothing, since few graduates pay off all their loans anyway. Of course it would benefit only the very well paid, but that seems to be what youngsters want.

The Tories should scrap tuition fees altogether. If they wanted to be cleaver they should do it exactly one year before the next general election.

RobD · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

rottenborough said:
Looks like May is about to pull another absolute policy belter:

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/feb/16/theresa-may-details-tuition-fee-overhaul
She should cut the nominal interest rate. It would cost virtually nothing, since few graduates pay off all their loans anyway. Of course it would benefit only the very well paid, but that seems to be what youngsters want.

Plan 1 type loans seem to be much fairer than the current ones. I wonder if they'll go back to something like that. I'm being spoiled by the low interest cap, which is keeping the interest down at 1.25%, even when inflation is much higher.

rpjs · February 2018

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
The Wilson one is great. Still got the pipe!

They probably couldn't find a picture of him without one!

Foxy · February 2018

TGOHF said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.
or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger
She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.

I suspect her BMI is not far off British average.

TGOHF · February 2018

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.
or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger
She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.
I suspect her BMI is not far off British average.

Suspect its far in excess of recent elected PMs.

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.
More than the IRA/Sinn Fein stuff?
If paid, yes. It's one thing a naive Labour MP chatting to a 'diplomat'. It's another taking payment.

It would need to be well documented, though, so that he can't simply deny it.
Does anyone remember whether MPs had to register financial interests back in those days?

Nope.

The Register of financial interests only began in its current form in the 1990s after all the cash for questions stuff.

IIRC Prior to that you only had to declare any directorships, shares, and investments.

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.
More than the IRA/Sinn Fein stuff?
If paid, yes. It's one thing a naive Labour MP chatting to a 'diplomat'. It's another taking payment.

It would need to be well documented, though, so that he can't simply deny it.
Does anyone remember whether MPs had to register financial interests back in those days?
Nope.

The Register of financial interests only began in its current form in the 1990s after all the cash for questions stuff.

IIRC Prior to that you only had to declare any directorships, shares, and investments.

Yep, that's what I thought. Pity!

MarqueeMark · February 2018

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.

Well, he wanted to be paid £20,000 by Iranian TV, so why would you be surprised he wanted to be paid as a spy?

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.
Well, he wanted to be paid £20,000 by Iranian TV, so why would you be surprised he wanted to be paid as a spy?

Did I say I was surprised? Mind you, I'm a little surprised at the Czechs wasting their money if it's true, I'd have thought he'd have been happy to help the Soviet bloc for free.

Nigelb · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

You are living up to the twisted moniker....

The May one looks a bit like a more decrepit Prince Andrew.

TheJezziah · February 2018

I thought Brown was the hottest...

Also Major just looks like Major with a wig.

MarqueeMark · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

Looks like Pussy Galore.....

TheScreamingEagles · February 2018

Wasn't former Labour MP Robert Maxwell a spy for the Czechs? (And the Soviets and Israel too)

rural_voter · February 2018

TGOHF said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TGOHF said:
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/964532059225120768
Oops: if a paid informer, that would cut through.
More than the IRA/Sinn Fein stuff?
If paid, yes. It's one thing a naive Labour MP chatting to a 'diplomat'. It's another taking payment.
Story has legs.

There were rumours that Harold Wilson was suspiciously fond of trips to the Soviet Union. Probably he was just even-handed compared to the Daily Mail view of the world.

He then had trouble with MI5 in the 1970s which may have hastened his decision to retire.

Later, there was a newspaper story that Michael Foot was a spy. Libel damages were paid. But he clearly took Russian money so what to make of that?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/charlesmoore/7377111/Was-Foot-a-national-treasure-or-the-KGBs-useful-idiot.html

In other words, plus ca change.

[cont. from prev. thread ... if it works]

Beverley_C said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mrs C, just curious as to your views on Cameron's role in the referendum. Do you regret that he was unable to win it, lambast him for calling it in the first place, blame the EU/Cameron for the failed renegotiation etc?
I blame Cameron for his stupid complacency. He does not seem to have considered that he could lose. He did not allow studies of the outcome of losing - "There is no Plan B" - it all just seemed to be something that he expected would blow over with no trouble.

He clearly learned nothing from Sindyref which was won with an unspectacular margin and which, for quite a while, looked like it was going the other way.

Blair was even more messianic about the EU but did little to set out the benefits of it. 47 out of 51 counties in England didn't get the reasons for it and voted to leave.

Scott_P · February 2018

@Ned_Donovan: 2018 is wild, we're now at a point where former Soviet spooks are arguing over whether the Leader of the Opposition was a paid Czech security services informant or not

@PlasFron: @DPJHodges @mikelovestweets Jeremy Corbyn says, 'He's against all forms of spying'.

Scott_P · February 2018

https://twitter.com/mocent0/status/964554975216066561

stevef · February 2018

Scott_P said:
@Ned_Donovan: 2018 is wild, we're now at a point where former Soviet spooks are arguing over whether the Leader of the Opposition was a paid Czech security services informant or not

@PlasFron: @DPJHodges @mikelovestweets Jeremy Corbyn says, 'He's against all forms of spying'.

Jeremy is too incompetent to be a leader of the opposition let alone a spy.

TheJezziah · February 2018

Scott_P said:
@Ned_Donovan: 2018 is wild, we're now at a point where former Soviet spooks are arguing over whether the Leader of the Opposition was a paid Czech security services informant or not

@PlasFron: @DPJHodges @mikelovestweets Jeremy Corbyn says, 'He's against all forms of spying'.

It all adds into the phoney 80's conflict some people are having, were one side pretend they are some kind of revolutionary's and the other fighting against the communists...

The vast majority of normal people look on with some slight amusement.

stevef · February 2018

The Sun really doesnt have to make up ridiculous stories about Jeremy Corbyn being a spy.

The truth about Corbyn condemns him enough without the need for lies.

malcolmg · February 2018

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....

TFS, Specsavers for you my boy

RobD · February 2018

So COB is a double agent, working for the Tories and the Czechs. No wonder he performed so miserably at the last election.

malcolmg · February 2018

MarqueeMark said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

williamglenn said:
A bit of fun.
https://twitter.com/ross_chmiel/status/964035300203880448
Tony Blair is strangely hot as a woman.....
Looks like Pussy Galore.....

Is that a Trumpism

Gardenwalker · February 2018

Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).

malcolmg · February 2018

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.
or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger
She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.
I suspect her BMI is not far off British average.

So you are saying she is obese

MarqueeMark · February 2018

Jeremy Corbyn says, 'He's against all forms of spying'.

LibDems can forget about Cheltenham. That's GCHQ in the blue column.....

Big_G_NorthWales · February 2018

TheJezziah said:

Scott_P said:
@Ned_Donovan: 2018 is wild, we're now at a point where former Soviet spooks are arguing over whether the Leader of the Opposition was a paid Czech security services informant or not

@PlasFron: @DPJHodges @mikelovestweets Jeremy Corbyn says, 'He's against all forms of spying'.
It all adds into the phoney 80's conflict some people are having, were one side pretend they are some kind of revolutionary's and the other fighting against the communists...

The vast majority of normal people look on with some slight amusement.

If the allegations stand up he is going to have some explaining to do

RobD · February 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheJezziah said:

Scott_P said:
@Ned_Donovan: 2018 is wild, we're now at a point where former Soviet spooks are arguing over whether the Leader of the Opposition was a paid Czech security services informant or not

@PlasFron: @DPJHodges @mikelovestweets Jeremy Corbyn says, 'He's against all forms of spying'.
It all adds into the phoney 80's conflict some people are having, were one side pretend they are some kind of revolutionary's and the other fighting against the communists...

The vast majority of normal people look on with some slight amusement.
If the allegations stand up he is going to have some explaining to do

He's been a very naughty boy!

Foxy · February 2018

TGOHF said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The problem is that governments are not supposed to be level pegging with oppositions. governments between elections are supposed to be less popular than oppositions. When Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead in 2012, when Neil Kinnock was 20 points aheadm in 1990, that is how it was supposed to be. Governments recover some of their vote from between election polls as general election day approaches.

So the question remains: why the Tories level pegging with Labour? Why is Labour not tearing ahead? Becuae if the Tory government adds a few points on in 2022 as all governments do (even the ones that lose) then Labour is stuffed.
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.
or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger
She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.
I suspect her BMI is not far off British average.
Suspect its far in excess of recent elected PMs.

Possibly, just another way our masters are unlike we proles.

MarqueeMark · February 2018

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).

If only the Czechs had piped up in, say, August 2015......

Big_G_NorthWales · February 2018

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).

If proven it is a very serious charge

Scott_P · February 2018

https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/964558844398657537

welshowl · February 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If only the Czechs had piped up in, say, August 2015......

Didn’t want to be bounced into it?

Gets coat off peg....

NickPalmer · February 2018

Spy stuff - lol. On the polls, the one significant development is that UKIP's vote share is undeniably collapsing, and nobody is benefiting very noticeably. There was a time when the Conservatives expected to be the main beneficiaries - people posted here would regularly add their poll scores together to make a prediction. And it did seem logical, but probably UKLIP's vote was in reality mostly fed-up left-behind voters angry at everyone rather than dedicated right-wingers. I suspect that most were previous non-voters who are now going to return to that state.

stevef · February 2018

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If proven it is a very serious charge

It would be impossible to prove. Its the Sun doing what the Sun does best.....

MarqueeMark · February 2018

So....Corbyn falls under a Czech bus, the Labour Party has a blood-bath election for a new leader, which a non-Momentum candidate wins....a devoutly Remainer non-Momentum candidate. And sets about promptly and properly buggering Brexit.

Now, I wonder whose interest it is in for Brexit's bessy mate to be locked in the Tower?

/CynicalMode......

Foxy · February 2018

malcolmg said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.
or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger
She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.
I suspect her BMI is not far off British average.
So you are saying she is obese

I think the averageafemalefBMIain the UK is "overweight" with a substantial minority (!!) "obese".

Nigelb · February 2018

welshowl said:

MarqueeMark said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If only the Czechs had piped up in, say, August 2015......

MarqueeMark said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If only the Czechs had piped up in, say, August 2015......
Didn’t want to be bounced into it?

Gets coat off peg....

Yes - wanted to run over their records a couple of times to make sure there was no mistake...

stevef · February 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If only the Czechs had piped up in, say, August 2015......

I dont know why the Sun bothers with such ridiculous stories which are unproveable even if they contained a modicum of truth. This sort of thing only helps Corbyn.

Corbyn should be attacked by both his Labour and Tory opponents by showing him up for what he actually is rather than daft stories about spies.

Richard_Nabavi · February 2018

NickPalmer said:
Spy stuff - lol.

He wouldn't be the first:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Stonehouse

malcolmg · February 2018

Foxy said:

malcolmg said:

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

stevef said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

rcs1000 said:

stevef said:
The
You keep posting this same point.

Here's the thing:

1. We're not exactly mid-term, so comparing a peak opposition lead three years into a parliament with the current one, eight months in, is disingenuous.

2. The Labour Party is led by Jeremy Corbyn.
And:

3. Brexit is so uncertain and such a complete disruption that any read-across from the past has to be treated with even more scepticism than usual.
Is this the Brexit that Jeremy Corbyn voted for for 30 years, the Brexit that he failed to campaign against in the referendum, and the Brexit which he isnt opposing now?
It is. So far young Labour voters haven't quite cottoned on to that, but maybe they will, tilting voting intentions towards the Conservatives. Or maybe Brexit will increasingly be seen as a disaster and the Tories will get the blame, tilting voting intentions towards Labour.

It's very easy to construct plausible scenarios which range from a good Conservative majority under a new leader to a small Labour majority with the Tories even more split than they are now.

Who knows? It's more uncertain than any time I can remember.
Young people do not decide general elections -there is not enough of them.

It appears to be more uncertain than at any time -but if you look carefully enough you can see all the signs for the Labour defeat to come
On balance I agree with you that a poor Labour result (substantially worse than GE2017) is likely, for the reasons you've given. However I don't share your certainty; there are many unknowns, not least how much blood will be spilt in the civil war in the Conservative Party.
or whether Labour will have a different leader. An Emily Thornberry leadership would be a gamechanger
She'd need to lose weight - can't see a corpulent PM being elected.
I suspect her BMI is not far off British average.
So you are saying she is obese
I think the averageafemalefBMIain the UK is "overweight" with a substantial minority (!!) "obese".

you are being generous

rottenborough · February 2018

MarqueeMark said:
So....Corbyn falls under a Czech bus, the Labour Party has a blood-bath election for a new leader, which a non-Momentum candidate wins....a devoutly Remainer non-Momentum candidate. And sets about promptly and properly buggering Brexit.

Now, I wonder whose interest it is in for Brexit's bessy mate to be locked in the Tower?

/CynicalMode......

How does the non-Momentum candidate win? MI5 are rubbing out the pencil votes from labour members?

williamglenn · February 2018

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/tictoc/status/964558844398657537

Bad timing for this tweet.
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/964559730621472769

ReggieCide · February 2018

stevef said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If proven it is a very serious charge
It would be impossible to prove. Its the Sun doing what the Sun does best.....

just to be clear, whose arse do you think it is using?

stevef · February 2018

ReggieCide said:

stevef said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If proven it is a very serious charge
It would be impossible to prove. Its the Sun doing what the Sun does best.....
just to be clear, whose arse do you think it is using?

I dont understand the question. Please clarify.

Foxy · February 2018

stevef said:

MarqueeMark said:

Gardenwalker said:
Can anyone confirm whether we are supposed to take this new seriously?

The culture war jumped the shark with Trump, but surely if he took money from Czech security services, he must resign from the House (and, of course, the Leadership).
If only the Czechs had piped up in, say, August 2015......
I dont know why the Sun bothers with such ridiculous stories which are unproveable even if they contained a modicum of truth. This sort of thing only helps Corbyn.

Corbyn should be attacked by both his Labour and Tory opponents by showing him up for what he actually is rather than daft stories about spies.

Yep, much more concerning is current Russian interference in our elections and referendums than historic allegations.

williamglenn · February 2018

Here’s the indictment: https://www.justice.gov/file/1035477/download

MarqueeMark · February 2018

rottenborough said:

MarqueeMark said:
So....Corbyn falls under a Czech bus, the Labour Party has a blood-bath election for a new leader, which a non-Momentum candidate wins....a devoutly Remainer non-Momentum candidate. And sets about promptly and properly buggering Brexit.

Now, I wonder whose interest it is in for Brexit's bessy mate to be locked in the Tower?

/CynicalMode......

How does the non-Momentum candidate win? MI5 are rubbing out the pencil votes from labour members?

Just playing Fantasy Politics for a moment - if Corbyn had to step down because it turns out he was in the pay of a foreign security service (which has been vehemently denied, so that is what would do for him), but his successor comes from the Corbyn faction and carries on regardless, then surely that would be the point at which Labour has mass defections of MPs to some new party? So to prevent that, Momentum backs off - and Chuka gets a go as leader.....

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