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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After last week’s shock YouGov 4% CON lead LAB edges back ahea

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,504

    A sizeable minority of Other Jedi?
    If they ask the sexuality question this time - with a free text field - the crosstabs with religion will be fascinating.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    stevef said:

    Not all UKIP voters went to the Tories.

    In constituencies that Labour won, a lot of UKIP supporters went to Labour. Labour is just as likely to lose UKIppers as the Tories.
    50% of UKIP voters went Tory, 20% went Labour
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    How does the non-Momentum candidate win? MI5 are rubbing out the pencil votes from labour members?
    Easy - the MPs ensure there is a coronation
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IMO the census ought to have an option for people who are non-practising members of a given religion. The way it is now forces people who are in that category to either put themselves into the same category as devout believers or to classify themselves as atheists. Maybe there should also be an agnostic box as well.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Interesting that you haven't joined in the PB Tory w***fest over this story. I assume you consider this is already priced in for Corbyn.

    Corbyn is a useless Soviet stooge isn't a remarkable revelation. If agents were compromised through his duplicity would be a different, if surprising issue.
    The issues change don't they as Corbyn gets closer to power
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    ydoethur said:

    It was part of a wider conclusion that as Britannia was peripheral to Roman interests it was one of the first places to be formally let go as central authority weakened. (That said, it spent a lot of time letting itself go as divers governors tried to build little kingdoms of their own or struck at the Imperial crown.) The throwaway line was really for his own ironic amusement as much as anything I think.
    I thought more recent research argued very much the opposite in that the British administrators saw Rome as corrupt and wanted their local example to reinforce what once was. (Something that I may just have imagined I read)

    If we did what Rome did proportionately to our resources we'd be flying to the stars. Some chance of having tackled the tricky problems like adding-up too.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,381

    My favourite colleague at work organised a petition to save Radio 3 when he was 8, not because he liked classical music (he was a Beatles fan) but "because I foresaw that a time might come when I liked it". I think that childhood isn't homogenous (or indeed adulthood) - children have moments of pentrating insights alternating with random silliness, and both can be endearing.
    In my experience, a fair number of children have a lot of interest in history. Even at the age of 7, I and my fellow Cub Scouts loved visiting places like the Tower of London and Hampton Court.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Omnium said:

    It feels to me like the Sun have something on Corbyn that isn't newsworthy in itself, but that will be if he's asked the right question and denies something or other in parliament. Or perhaps they're simply hoping that someone will come forwards with something or other.

    Just a hunch mind.

    Given how mad the guy is I think its frankly amazing that the Labour party have managed to keep his secrets buried. I'm completely sure he's not always had our nation's best interests at heart (and although that's not good, these things were some while ago), but can't really see treasonous goings on.

    Overall I imagine that the KGB and others would have viewed absolutely all of the current Labour leadership as completely worthless potential targets.

    Politicians that seem to be magically richer than their background suggests are of more current interest in my view (and before you ask the answer is no).

    It is hard to imagine anything more calculated to cause mayhem and damage to the UK than a Corbynista government. Nuff said.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Barnesian said:

    If I were Corbyn, I'd sue like Foot did, and win. Damage the Sun and get a new kitchen.
    "win" as a certainty betrays your proclivities.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,407
    AndyJS said:

    IMO the census ought to have an option for people who are non-practising members of a given religion. The way it is now forces people who are in that category to either put themselves into the same category as devout believers or to classify themselves as atheists. Maybe there should also be an agnostic box as well.

    There is, and you can say you're a true Jedi believer too. There isn't specifcally a non-practising category for each religion though. I guess the Jedi's objected.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252
    Sean_F said:

    In my experience, a fair number of children have a lot of interest in history. Even at the age of 7, I and my fellow Cub Scouts loved visiting places like the Tower of London and Hampton Court.
    A friend of mine grew up in the Tower of London. His father was Yeoman Warder.
  • Barnesian said:

    If I were Corbyn, I'd sue like Foot did, and win. Damage the Sun and get a new kitchen.
    *new soup kitchen.

    On the level of current damages, several I'd hope.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    The Tories not being able to handsomely defeat an opposition being led by someone who spied for the Soviet Union would be quite something.

    However, I find it hard to believe that the Soviets were so imcompetent they recruited someone who would not be in apposition to supply them with any info relating tot he British state. I guess what he may have been able to provide is insights into the tortuous relationships and enmities that characterised the far left back in the day (as they do now, too, of course). Having some insight into who was up and who was down might have been worthwhile in some small way - especially given the far left's control of some councils, especially in London.

    The bit you left out is "sleepers". Remarkable foresight by the Soviets. Russians have always been long game players.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129
    Omnium said:

    I thought more recent research argued very much the opposite in that the British administrators saw Rome as corrupt and wanted their local example to reinforce what once was. (Something that I may just have imagined I read)

    If we did what Rome did proportionately to our resources we'd be flying to the stars. Some chance of having tackled the tricky problems like adding-up too.
    Oh, indeed. I'm not necessarily endorsing his conclusion and as I noted there are good reasons to argue against it. I just thought - and still think - it's a great quote.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    You have to be 27 to have even been born at the time of the Soviet Union and 47 to have any real memory of the Berlin Wall coming down, coincidentally the age you were more likely to be a Tory than Labour voter at the last general election
    47? You're having a giraffe. I'm 38 and the Berlin wall falling was the defining moment of my life until 9/11.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,129

    The bit you left out is "sleepers". Remarkable foresight by the Soviets. Russians have always been long game players.
    This wasn't the Soviets. It was the Czechs.

    If they recruited Corbyn as a possible then they must have had many other Czechs that bounced.

    Good night.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    stevef said:

    No. Corbyn doesnt have 40% banked. This is the big mistake of Corbynista lap of honour runners since last June. Many of those 40% voted Labour believing Jeremy Corbyn would not be prime minister. Many of them voted Labour on that basis. Many voted Labour to stop Theresa may getting a landslide for a no deal Brexit. The Labour 40% is exeptionally soft and liable to crumble.
    I agree and am relieved that at least one other person on here sees it like that. I thought my view was formed more in hope than rationality. It still might be but at least I'm now not alone in my self deceit.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    A note to Joff Wild at SO from someone who has always kind of sided with you....I wish you’d STFU with your bizarre anti Corbyn posts. Leave that kind of nonsense to the Brexit and pcCOM ideologues...there are plenty of those around here who do not need a frustrated, articulate liberal left like yourself to encourage them.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    This wasn't the Soviets. It was the Czechs.

    If they recruited Corbyn as a possible then they must have had many other Czechs that bounced.

    Good night.
    And with so much money bouncing around, a Czech secret service operative was not stashing cash under the till. The Stazi, KGB agents were all playing the system.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028
    tyson said:

    A note to Joff Wild at SO from someone who has always kind of sided with you....I wish you’d STFU with your bizarre anti Corbyn posts. Leave that kind of nonsense to the Brexit and pcCOM ideologues...there are plenty of those around here who do not need a frustrated, articulate liberal left like yourself to encourage them.

    Yes I'm very surprised at the passion that Corbyn stirs up in many of the left on here. It's unnaturally intense. It can't be his policies. They are leftish but not extreme. It can't be the man. He's quite gentle, polite and anti-violence. It can't be the damage to the Labour Party. He did quite well against May against all expectations. I just don't understand the passion.

    I can understand why a Tory might be passionately against him. They can see his electoral threat. But a leftie? I agree it is perplexing why they would want to help the Tories undermine Corbyn.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,184
    Barnesian said:

    Yes I'm very surprised at the passion that Corbyn stirs up in many of the left on here. It's unnaturally intense. It can't be his policies. They are leftish but not extreme. It can't be the man. He's quite gentle, polite and anti-violence. It can't be the damage to the Labour Party. He did quite well against May against all expectations. I just don't understand the passion.

    I can understand why a Tory might be passionately against him. They can see his electoral threat. But a leftie? I agree it is perplexing why they would want to help the Tories undermine Corbyn.
    +1 Same here... perplexing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,184
    stevef said:

    No. Corbyn doesnt have 40% banked. This is the big mistake of Corbynista lap of honour runners since last June. Many of those 40% voted Labour believing Jeremy Corbyn would not be prime minister. Many of them voted Labour on that basis. Many voted Labour to stop Theresa may getting a landslide for a no deal Brexit. The Labour 40% is exeptionally soft and liable to crumble.
    "Many of those 40% voted Labour believing Jeremy Corbyn would not be prime minister." How can you know that? You might just as well say many of the 52% voted Leave believing Remain would win.
  • Alistair said:

    47? You're having a giraffe. I'm 38 and the Berlin wall falling was the defining moment of my life until 9/11.
    Defining moment? You'd have been 9 or 10 when the Berlin Wall came down in late 1989.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Yes I'm very surprised at the passion that Corbyn stirs up in many of the left on here. It's unnaturally intense. It can't be his policies. They are leftish but not extreme. It can't be the man. He's quite gentle, polite and anti-violence. It can't be the damage to the Labour Party. He did quite well against May against all expectations. I just don't understand the passion.

    I can understand why a Tory might be passionately against him. They can see his electoral threat. But a leftie? I agree it is perplexing why they would want to help the Tories undermine Corbyn.
    The Tories are probably more afraid of Corbyn being replaced by Yvette Cooper or Clive Lewis. As SO has said, Corbyn is ensuring the Tories stay at 40% regardless of the difficulties they're encountering.
  • AndyJS said:

    The Tories are probably more afraid of Corbyn being replaced by Yvette Cooper or Clive Lewis. As SO has said, Corbyn is ensuring the Tories stay at 40% regardless of the difficulties they're encountering.
    If labour had a mainstream leader I would be quite laid back aboit the next election
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252

    "Many of those 40% voted Labour believing Jeremy Corbyn would not be prime minister." How can you know that? You might just as well say many of the 52% voted Leave believing Remain would win.
    Many? Perhaps enough to make the difference. It seemed unlikely that Leave could win against the might of the Establishment. So it was easy to vote your conscience without expecting it to come about.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,600
    edited February 2018
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are probably more afraid of Corbyn being replaced by Yvette Cooper or Clive Lewis. As SO has said, Corbyn is ensuring the Tories stay at 40% regardless of the difficulties they're encountering.
    A poll last year had 7% fewer voters would consider voting for Cooper led Labour than Corbyn led Labour

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-tony-blair-support-election-2017-uk-prime-minister-polls-a7740921.html

    A Yougov poll at the same time had Labour on 33% under Cooper and Umunna with the Tories on 45% and 46% respectively compared to 35% under Corbyn (admittedly pre general election) with the Tories on 44%, only Khan did better than Corbyn getting Labour to 36% with the Tories on 45%.


    http://uk.businessinsider.com/poll-labour-would-go-backwards-under-yvette-cooper-or-chuka-umunna-2017-5
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,252

    +1 Same here... perplexing.
    Not if you take exception to your party being "intensely relaxed" about its broad church encompassing anti-semites and holocaust deniers ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,028
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories are probably more afraid of Corbyn being replaced by Yvette Cooper or Clive Lewis. As SO has said, Corbyn is ensuring the Tories stay at 40% regardless of the difficulties they're encountering.
    They won't be afraid of him being replaced by Yvette Cooper or Clive Lewis. They know there is no chance of that.

    The Tories staying at 40% in spite of their poor performance can easily be explained by the fact that they are the natural home for Brexiteers (all 52% of them). About a quarter of the Tory 40% are ex-Kippers. It doesn't need Corbyn to explain why the Tories are sticking at 40%.

    Lefties do the Tories work for them by knocking Corbyn.

  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Not if you take exception to your party being "intensely relaxed" about its broad church encompassing anti-semites and holocaust deniers ?
    Personally I think the politics of Corbyn and McDonnell are beyond contempt. They would have the entire economy collapse so we would all be "equal". I lived in Russia for a few months in the 90s after the collapse of communism. Ideology benefits no one if people don't hav enough to eat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    Barnesian said:

    They won't be afraid of him being replaced by Yvette Cooper or Clive Lewis. They know there is no chance of that.

    The Tories staying at 40% in spite of their poor performance can easily be explained by the fact that they are the natural home for Brexiteers (all 52% of them). About a quarter of the Tory 40% are ex-Kippers. It doesn't need Corbyn to explain why the Tories are sticking at 40%.

    Lefties do the Tories work for them by knocking Corbyn.

    A quarter? Seems a bit much, especially as the Tories were in the high thirties when UKIP were doing well.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    If labour had a mainstream leader I would be quite laid back aboit the next election
    Welcome to the club!

    Corbyn meant I had to vote Tory in 2017, If Labour had someone as leader who was mainstream I might even vote for them. But Corbyn, I just don't trust him on defence (with his policies you might as well not have a defence policy or armed services anyway). Then on the economy he wants to spend too much too quickly and this obsession with public ownership is frankly strange. I am not against public ownership for some monopolistic, strategically important or even loss making industries i.e. Nuclear power.

    No, my problem with Labour is they advocate some reasonable policies and then ruin it with totally inadequate defence policies or stupid economic policies. As a political consumer I am only interested in policies that offer positive outcomes for the people, not doing it for PC reasons. Another lunatic policy is banning defence industries from selling certain weapons, which is fine but what about the people who will be made unemployed? Obviously I feel bad for the people who are maimed and killed with the weapons but the people who perpetrate these horrors are going to buy them somewhere so it might as well give jobs to our people.
  • Welcome to the club!

    Corbyn meant I had to vote Tory in 2017, If Labour had someone as leader who was mainstream I might even vote for them. But Corbyn, I just don't trust him on defence (with his policies you might as well not have a defence policy or armed services anyway). Then on the economy he wants to spend too much too quickly and this obsession with public ownership is frankly strange. I am not against public ownership for some monopolistic, strategically important or even loss making industries i.e. Nuclear power.

    No, my problem with Labour is they advocate some reasonable policies and then ruin it with totally inadequate defence policies or stupid economic policies. As a political consumer I am only interested in policies that offer positive outcomes for the people, not doing it for PC reasons. Another lunatic policy is banning defence industries from selling certain weapons, which is fine but what about the people who will be made unemployed? Obviously I feel bad for the people who are maimed and killed with the weapons but the people who perpetrate these horrors are going to buy them somewhere so it might as well give jobs to our people.
    Fair summary
  • I suspect our new defence secretary is going to attack Corbyn in no uncertain terms
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    New thread...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,317
    dr_spyn said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/964620881359187968

    Czech mate?

    Surprised they couldn't find an image of him in front of a big communist banner...
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Barnesian said:

    Yes I'm very surprised at the passion that Corbyn stirs up in many of the left on here. It's unnaturally intense. It can't be his policies. They are leftish but not extreme. It can't be the man. He's quite gentle, polite and anti-violence. It can't be the damage to the Labour Party. He did quite well against May against all expectations. I just don't understand the passion.

    I can understand why a Tory might be passionately against him. They can see his electoral threat. But a leftie? I agree it is perplexing why they would want to help the Tories undermine Corbyn.
    I think a few of them are emotionally tied into the idea of Corbyn as the enemy from the warnings on his original election to the coup attempt that backfired. The election that didn't end in the predicted disaster seems to have tipped a few of them over the edge.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    stevef said:

    I keep posting the same point in response to the same sort of articles. If I posted an opposite point you would say I was contradicting myself. If repetition is what concerns you I suggest you address your criticism to remoaners who go on and on about Brexit even when it has nothing to do with the thread.

    1). Ed Miliband was 12 points ahead 2 years into the parliament, not three. That was indeed the peak.
    But even at this point in the parliament, previous oppositions have been further ahead than just one point.

    2). Not sure what point you are making here. The fact is that jeremy Corbyn is doing worse at this point in the parliament, than previous opposition leaders who went on to lose.

    In short all the polls right now are pointing to defeat at the next general election for Labour (led by Corbyn.

    Corbyn is performing a lot better than Gaitskell was managing in 1960 and 1961!
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