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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The hard way. Gaining votes is not enough

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    South coast fisherman have always been opposed to it as well. And I can see their point. Never worked out why so many farmers are anti-EU though. I am sure someone on here can enlighten me.
    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Farmers get extremely attached to their land in a way that most of us would find hard to understand.
  • calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    Quite right
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    Which makes me wonder, is a non-confidentiality agreement legal if it is used to supress reporting of criminal behaviour?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    calum said:

    The staffing agency that hired 130 hostesses to work at the Presidents Club charity dinner last month has told the women they can disregard the confidentiality agreements they signed in order to report criminal behaviour to the police.

    https://www.ft.com/content/22589cee-10be-11e8-8cb6-b9ccc4c4dbbb

    They couldn’t enforce them anyway if there was a criminal complaint...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Maybe there's something in David Goodhart's ‘Somewheres’ versus ‘Anywheres’ analysis... Farmers tend to be very much 'somewheres', for obvious reasons.
    Hadn't seen that, but it looks really interesting. Thanks for drawing it to my attention.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    Which makes me wonder, is a non-confidentiality agreement legal if it is used to supress reporting of criminal behaviour?
    No.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sean_F said:

    Farmers get extremely attached to their land in a way that most of us would find hard to understand.
    Especially when it farmed over generations - I spent some time in the Summer Country last year walking his land with a farmer whose family had worked that patch for close to a thousand years. There is a very different feel when people talk about making changes that might take 2 or 3 generations to see in their full glory
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Charles said:

    Especially when it farmed over generations - I spent some time in the Summer Country last year walking his land with a farmer whose family had worked that patch for close to a thousand years. There is a very different feel when people talk about making changes that might take 2 or 3 generations to see in their full glory
    Such privilege is a world where many have insufficient security to plan for next week.
  • Sean_F said:

    I think that Theresa May's government will win over Remain voters like Carlotta Vance, HYUFD, John O, Ydoethur. I don't think that there is anything they could do to win over you, or voters who share your beliefs.
    Carlotta? She became a devotee of Theresa and Theresa's brand of Leaviness the instant Theresa assumed the leadership.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    Not sure that this has been linked to previously, but it's a very detailed analysis of how difficult it is going to be for the UK to replicate the trade agreements it currently has through the EU. Obviously, the Brexit loons will have no interest whatsoever, but it may give more pragmatic, thoughtful Leave supporters cause for concern.
    https://twitter.com/CoppetainPU/status/963410432504614912

    There is so much hard work to be done in this area. The idea that it is being done by Fox is deeply depressing. It is not going to be straightforward but most of the issues can be sorted and agreed with considerable diligence, intelligence and realism. I'm scoring Fox 0/3 on that count.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    They couldn’t enforce them anyway if there was a criminal complaint...
    They could if the complaint failed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171
    Ishmael_Z said:

    They could if the complaint failed.
    Bit late then, surely?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Such privilege is a world where many have insufficient security to plan for next week.
    Yes, it’s a privilege (I was just a visitor) but one which carries with it many obligations and duties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    John_M said:

    Good evening Anne.

    It might not take forty years. If the UK rejoins the EU, it will do sans opt outs, just as the western Balkan states will. That would be healthier - I don't think there's much future for countries outside the Eurozone.
    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
  • Genuine question Casino - what makes you say that about our post-EU fisheries and agriculture policies? Do you have a link to some information?
    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
  • PlankPlank Posts: 71
    I am a bit under the weather today so spent sometime inside leafing through my copy of this month's "The Farmer". An article on the back page claimed that the average advertised salary in Agriculture was 9.5 percent higher in 2017 compared to 2016. Although the data may need a health warning as it was based on research paid for by a job site (CV-Library).
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    To be fair Charles, had the referendum gone the other way there would still have been a "small, but influential and vocal group... trying to frustrate the vote", just on the other side.
    No, because the mechanics are asymmetrical. The government wouldn't have been obliged to do or not do anything after a remain vote, so where would leave direct a Gina miller type attack? And who would have been the Gina Miller figure, incidentally? I suspect leave would have struggled to find a figure head as ostensibly rational and attractive as her.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527
    HYUFD said:

    If anything Europe will split into two in a few decades between a Eurozone inner core and an EFTA outer core if the euro becomes a requirement of EU membership
    The debate in Poland is moving towards joining the Euro.

    http://www.rp.pl/Finanse/301019939-Przyjecie-euro---list-otwarty-Premierze-Morawiecki-juz-czas-na-euro.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    They could if the complaint failed.
    I don’t think the courts would allow a contract that prevented a complaint to the police to stand as valid
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    I don’t think the courts would allow a contract that prevented a complaint to the police to stand as valid
    On reflection I think you are right.
  • Well done Spurs 2 - 2
  • DavidL said:

    There is so much hard work to be done in this area. The idea that it is being done by Fox is deeply depressing. It is not going to be straightforward but most of the issues can be sorted and agreed with considerable diligence, intelligence and realism. I'm scoring Fox 0/3 on that count.
    Why was Liam appointed in the first place is what I want to know. His is arguably the most vital job of Brexit. If DD screwed up then the idea was that we'd have all these other trade deals to cushion the blow; but if Liam hasn't done them then it's economic Armageddon time. The nation's future is in Liam's hands as surely as it was in Churchill's in 1940.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    John_M said:

    It already is a requirement. The only two countries with an opt out are the UK and Denmark. For political reasons, countries have been allowed to play silly sods with respect to ERM II, but they're all under a treaty obligation to join.
    Which none of them in reality will ever implement, Sweden and Denmark both voted against the Euro in referendums and most of Eastern Europe has no interest in joining the Eurozone either
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594

    The debate in Poland is moving towards joining the Euro.

    http://www.rp.pl/Finanse/301019939-Przyjecie-euro---list-otwarty-Premierze-Morawiecki-juz-czas-na-euro.html
    Not according to the polling
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,171

    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.
    It would be great to see a cap applied to the maximum subsidy claimable by any one individual or business. The amount of our taxes paid to some large landowners is truly outrageous, e.g:
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/paul-dacre-langwell-estate
  • Scott_P said:
    So the prospect of Boris's great speech of healing and consolidation lasted, what, 48 hours?
  • Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
    I think we're at a point in the Brexit process where the costs are obvious and immediate, whilst the benefits will take time to both become apparent and feed through. The UK economy and world will develop in ways we cannot possibly know today. It's a decision about tomorrow, not just today.

    I hope to win you over in time. Keeping it positive and about a brighter future is key, I agree.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited February 2018
    Charles said:

    Alastair, with the greatest of respect, you are neither representative of, nor understand, the British people
    When May apparently told Osborne that he should know his party better I wonder whether she prefaced that using "with the greatest respect".
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,623
    Charles said:

    Yes, it’s a privilege (I was just a visitor) but one which carries with it many obligations and duties.
    Which the vast majority of farmers are singularly failing to fulfil.

    Guardians of the countryside my arse.

    Time to buy another 4x4, paid for by the rest of us via the Brussels magic money tree.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    edited February 2018

    Well there's a positive vision of Brexit. If it was like that across the board it might even win me over. And even if it didn't at least I'd have some nice wild flowers to look at in the time freed up by lost orders.
    It is a vision of British farming protected against agribusiness in a way rather incompatible with an FTA with chlorinated chicken land.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Toms said:

    When May apparently told Osborne that he should know his party better I wonder whether she prefaced that using "with greatest respect".

    And now he speaks to the Nation while she cowers in No 10
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    Scott_P said:
    Still waiting for that senior minister to resign and call for Mrs M's replacement.....

    The Sun seem to be way off on politics recently. Is Shippers getting all the scoops? Deserves to, given the way he can write.
  • Mortimer said:

    Still waiting for that senior minister to resign and call for Mrs M's replacement.....

    The Sun seem to be way off on politics recently. Is Shippers getting all the scoops? Deserves to, given the way he can write.
    The Sun article isn't a scoop; Boris's people will have briefed them.
  • PlankPlank Posts: 71



    Time to buy another 4x4, paid for by the rest of us via the Brussels magic money tree.

    Pish. Mitsubishi will sell a Hybrid 4x4 at 40% off the list price as a Business to Business fleet sale (even if a fleet of one). If sold after 4 years the various tax reliefs will cover the depreciation making the vehicle effectively free. Brussels magic money tree not required.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,527

    I hope to win you over in time. Keeping it positive and about a brighter future is key, I agree.
    The future’s bright. The future’s European.

    The UK reversing Brexit will be an event of real geopolitical significance in a way that Brexit wasn’t able to be.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,667



    I'm going on publicly available information that UK policy will shift from land/crop based subsidy by acreage to one based on biodiversity, preserving habitats and woodland, and public access. I also expect strengthening of animal welfare standards.

    I expect something similar for fisheries.

    Looks like it on the first para, and very welcome. Haven't heard anything about fisheries yet - there is a Bill coming later this year, though.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    Which none of them in reality will ever implement, Sweden and Denmark both voted against the Euro in referendums and most of Eastern Europe has no interest in joining the Eurozone either
    With the changes to QMV last May, and the simple fact that the EZ countries agree their position before any CoM meeting, I think the political dynamics will change. Without the UK, the EZ can outvote the others.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,594
    edited February 2018
    John_M said:

    With the changes to QMV last May, and the simple fact that the EZ countries agree their position before any CoM meeting, I think the political dynamics will change. Without the UK, the EZ can outvote the others.
    If it came to a forced choice between staying in the EU and joining the Euro or leaving and joining Norway in EFTA Sweden and Denmark would be likely to leave. Given a similar choice I would also expect Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic etc to leave the EU too
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Scott_P said:

    And now he speaks to the Nation while she cowers in No 10
    The New Statesman you mean? I'm not sure who else he has been talking to.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,977
    John_M said:

    With the changes to QMV last May, and the simple fact that the EZ countries agree their position before any CoM meeting, I think the political dynamics will change. Without the UK, the EZ can outvote the others.
    Not a recipe for harmony however.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Foxy said:

    It is a vision of British farming protected against agribusiness in a way rather incompatible with an FTA with chlorinated chicken land.
    Well we don't have either a high value biodiverse agro policy or a free market free for all FTA yet, so we might as well enjoy this brief period while there are still possibilities. A bit like when you are applying for jobs but before you have got one.
  • NEW THREAD
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    HYUFD said:

    If it came to a forced choice between the staying in the EU and joining the Euro or leaving and joining Norway in EFTA Sweden and Denmark would be likely to leave. Given a similar choice I would also expect Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic etc to leave the EU too
    I think we're collectively speculating in advance of any evidence. There are interesting times ahead for both the EU and the UK. I'm wary of making predictions, so all I can do is point at what little data there is out there.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    British luvvie Minnie Driver stepping down as Oxfam ambassador.

    The brand is pretty toxic.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,236



    Talk to some young people.

    Brexit is the only political topic I have ever heard my 19 year old nephew and 16 year old niece mention. There is clearly a grievance there but whether they'll ever get off Rocket League and Snapchat respectively to do anything about it remains to be seen.
This discussion has been closed.