politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Things are so bad with Mrs May that some Tory MPs want Nick Ti
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Things are so bad with Mrs May that some Tory MPs want Nick Timothy back to provide direction
Well this is how bad Mrs May's indecision over Brexit is, some Tory MPs want her to bring back Nick Timothy. Top scoop as usual from @ShippersUnbound. https://t.co/OM7N4jXzRO pic.twitter.com/oAoe2tWbZP
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
This has to be a joke, hasn't it?
Just thinking aloud....
I don't think that's entirely accurate - procrastination seems to be Mrs May's default state of mind.
Mrs May is, ultimately, more acceptable to the Soubry's, Clarke's, and Hammond's of this world than (say) JRM. And Mrs May is more acceptable to the JRMs, Fox's, etc of this world than Amber Rudd.
If there were an alternative to Mrs May that had "star quality", and who was a proven vote winner (and who wasn't Boris), then it might be different. But Conservative MPs - above all - wish to be re-elected. It is not clear who would be a better vote winner than Mrs May.
I saw the sickening sight of Chuka Umunna and Anna Soubrey joined at the hip on Marr this morning. I really really hope Soubrey loses her seat next time. Their interview could be summarised thus:
"Of course we accept the referendum result of 2016 (sincere and hurt look on Soubrey's face at the very idea that she does not). Of course Brexit will happen -(although it may not) because the People were wrong deceived and misguided to vote for it. We (Chuka and Anna) know better than the People what is in the national interest. All that we do we do for the country and for our constituents (although Anna's constituency and the country voted Leave) because we know better than they what is good for them.
So, (continues Anna Umunna) we believe that although people voted for Brexit, what they really voted for Brexit in name only. What the People were really voting for in the referendum was to stay completely under the EU's control via the Single Market and Customs Union. People in June 2016 were demanding that Freedom of Movement continues, that the UK has no control over her borders or laws. And People were also demanding in 2016 that the EU controls who we trade with via the Customs Union.
The People did not really vote for independence from the EU in 2016. Goodness me no. Its only fanatics like Mogg and Gove who want that. So we Chuka Soubrey, who know better than the People what is in the national interest will be doing our best to ensure that that what we want happens."
Arrogance personified with two talking heads. Ms Soubrey, I will raise my glass to you losing your seat in 2022.
Low likelihood outcome.
Up to 200 seasonal jobs have gone at Haygrove’s farm in Ledbury, Herefordshire, and some of the company’s raspberry and blueberry-growing will be relocated to Yunnan province in China because of uncertainty over migrant labour due to Brexit.
Angus Davison, the founder of Haygrove, said: “In the UK we employ 230 full-time and 1,150 seasonal workers, but we are now reducing that to 950 because of Brexit nervousness.” The company has a turnover of £101m.
“We are already out of time,” he says, explaining that he can’t afford to wait for Theresa May to reveal her immigration policy as this year’s harvest was planned last year.
Davison has written to Theresa May, pleading with her to take urgent action. “Unless a seasonal workers scheme is put in place, you must expect to see the steep decline of this significant rural employer and source of food,” he wrote.
“It is appreciated that treating one industry differently to another is difficult; however agriculture, unlike construction and hospitality, can be exported. If enough people are not made available to do the work, the work can be taken to the people.”
The prime minster has not replied.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/11/british-farmer-moves-fruit-growing-to-china-over-brexit-uncertainty
Those wanting a hard Brexit will have to accept that the economy will be hard hit and that a hard border will re-appear in Northern Ireland. May should think about the country and her legacy rather than clinging desperately to 'power'.
She has one chance, face down the Brexiteers and go for a soft Brexit. If they bring her down the Tories should choose Hammond without a vote and accept that they may lose a few MPs. If necessary get the SNP and Libdems to back them on crucial Brexit votes.
First Brexit came for the EMA, but I did not speak out because I have no dealings with the medicines agency...
I'll get my coat...
David Cameron's former guru.
Mrs May's Brexit position is almost indistinguishable from Mr Corbyn's apart from Mr Corbyn might keep the UK in the customs union or something close to it. There is far more in common between Mrs May and Mr Corbyn on Brexit than either has to Mr Umunna and his pro single market position and Mr Rees Mogg and his WTO terms position without any regulatory alignment
But Parliament would have to vote to reapply for EU membership in effect. Which is approximately as likely as Skawkbox or Breitbart making an an honest and useful contribution to political debate.
But none did.
Edit: And if they had won I have no doubt they would have followed up on that policy perfectly legally.
Just as if the Liberal Democrats win an election, they can take us back in. The flying pig would offer a convenient way of getting to Brussels to open talks as well!
Therefore likewise any future parliament that tries to rejoin the EU will stumble against the obstacle of the 2016 referendum. Parliament might be sovereign in theory, but it derives its power from the People. Governments with majorities in the Commons never have more than 50% of the vote, and therefore no future government in practice could override the 2016 referendum. If a future parliament wanted to rejoin it would have to hold another referendum.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/current-issue
But anyway the most likely route back in is one small step at a time. It would also have been the best way to leave. It might be emotionally satisfying to flounce out like a melodramatic tart if that is the kind of thing you like to do. But as we are finding it isn't very practical.
Cameron was not only crap at referendums, he seemed to be a poor judge of character.
I think it was Mr Dancer who suggested the other day that the Scottish win looked tasty odds?
King Bongo, I've had that used against me a few times. Mildly irksome.
Mr. Eagles, reminds me of a (very) old joke. Antigonus Monopthalmus was seen as a harsh master, but after he had died and other men ruled, a farmer, digging in his field when a passer-by asked him what he was doing, answered: "I'm looking for Antigonus."
EDIT Although looking again, he really needs to add a monocle....
The main argument against [remaining in the Customs Union] is that it would preclude Britain from striking its own, separate trade deals with non-EU countries. The hard Brexiters will be angry. Liam Fox will be out of a job. Deprived of his government expense account, long-haul airlines will take a small hit to their profit margins. I think Britain can live with that.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/feb/11/since-this-government-cant-govern-parliament-must-take-charge
The idea of remaining in the Customs Union is certainly building up a head of steam. This will expose the 'Hannan Option' as the pipe dream it probably always was, and will reduce Brexit to the less noble status as a migrant-control measure, but hey ho. Let's go for it and save ourselves further grief.
As for the Irish border, things might be further along if the cantankerous gnome Varadkar hadn't halted the electronic borders work that was being done when Kenny was Taoiseach[sp].
They are not bound. What they are not, is immune from any consequences that would arise from ignoring the previous parliament's actions.
Mr. Sandpit, this seems to be a common thing for me. Last year, a few times. Mr Putney and others thanked me for tips I, er, hadn't made...
Anyway, I've been betting with dinky sums and I'm glad others are winning.
I don't think another plebiscite would be at all desirable, and I voted Leave. It's not a good mechanism for deciding long-term national strategies.
I doubt the UK will move far away from the EU in political or even regulatory terms. That's partly because (at least in my industry) standards are increasingly set globally.
While we're certainly right to be navel-gazing about Brexit, the EU also has some interesting decisions to make about the Eurozone and the mechanisms needed to make it sustainable. Once we've left, there's only Denmark with a treaty opt-out from the Euro. There's likely to be a new treaty to deal with the accession of the western Balkan states. There's a general question to be answered on how to deal with countries on the periphery; Ukraine, Turkey, perhaps even Belarus (or even the UK).
[And by We, I include some of my Polish friends who are about as British in outlook as I am - argumentative, like drinking beer and have a case of slight envy/distrust of our German friends]
Have they considered paying their workers more? Just a thought.
I'd be more concerned about transport.
(*) I am about as far from being an expert as it is possible to get
1,150 seasonal, paid during the relevant periods.
Without knowing the length of the season, it's hard to make any such conclusions.
It's people like these (who are old friends of mine and whose fears for their business under Brexit were one thing that tipped me to remain) who will face problems. Small fruit farms operate on tight margins because they get ruthlessly squeezed on price and appearance (rather than quality) by supermarkets and juicers for their products, and they're only ever a couple of bad years away from real trouble as it is due to the capital intensive nature of the business.
This will tighten their margins further, which is not helpful.
An economist might say, go and do something else. However there are issues. Doing something else and importing our fruit negatively impacts our balance of payments, and will not help our drinks industry (cider and beer are big business). It is also going to make land management more difficult.
So look further down the chain for the real bite.
So not going to impact the long term employment levels in the UK
My coat is on the hook I think...