politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35% in strong Leave area
Falmouth, Smithick on Cornwall (Lab defence) Result: Lab 643 (60% +20% on last time), Con 184 (17% -7% on last time), Lib Dem 184 (17% -2% on last time), Green 57 (5% -11% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 459 (43%) on a swing of 13.5% from Con to Lab
Comments
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Thirst.
Thanks, Harry.
I'd love this to be a sign of a resurgence for the Lib Dems, as I feel there is both a market for them, and a position developing.
However I seriously doubt that the great invisible man, aka Cable, is the person to take advantage of any developments.0 -
fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.0 -
I'm not sure how much the lack of media attention garnered by the Lib Dems is really Cable's fault. He pops up every now and again to give his opinion, particularly on financial and business matters. I think the problem is more that the Conservatives and, to a lesser extent, Labour are hogging all the attention with their attention-grabbing internal strife and involvement in the tragi-comedy of Brexit. The sensible and united Lib Dems are simply too boring to report on. They could do with instigating a scandal or two!JosiasJessop said:Thirst.
Thanks, Harry.
I'd love this to be a sign of a resurgence for the Lib Dems, as I feel there is both a market for them, and a position developing.
However I seriously doubt that the great invisible man, aka Cable, is the person to take advantage of any developments.0 -
And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.0 -
I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.rpjs said:
And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.
Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.
Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.
What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...0 -
Chances of reintroducing the death penalty in my opinion? 5% or less in the next 30 years.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
You could argue we do have a death penalty. Parts of the military are able to take out a specific person as a target. Spooks? Who knows.0 -
We would have to denounce the Sixth and Thirteenth Protocols of the ECHR to reinstate the death penalty, but its not of itself incompatible with remaining subject to the ECHR. The death penalty is also forbidden by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights as given legal force by the Lisbon Treaty so abolition is de jure part of the EU acquis. Abolition is also a requirement for membership of the Council of Europe so we'd have to leave that too.TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.rpjs said:
And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.
Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.
Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.
What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...0 -
"I do not campaign to restore the death penalty. (Actually I have never even made a speech on the subject, but it seems to fascinate interviewers.) But it is my personal, moral, opinion that, in the most serious multiple murder cases, where the evidence is overwhelming (not just beyond reasonable doubt), it is justifiable."TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.rpjs said:
And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.
Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.
Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.
What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...
Probably a majority opinion that.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/david-davis-you-ask-the-questions-852351.html0 -
Taking out people in the battlefield/who are a clear and present danger to the public isn't a death penalty.philiph said:
Chances of reintroducing the death penalty in my opinion? 5% or less in the next 30 years.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
You could argue we do have a death penalty. Parts of the military are able to take out a specific person as a target. Spooks? Who knows.
I'm going to sound like Donald Rumsfeld and Alberto Gonzales, but they are enemy combatants.0 -
BTW the only country in Europe that currently has the death penalty (and consequently is the only European country not to be a member of the Council of Europe is Belarus. I wonder if they'd be interested in a FTA?rpjs said:
We would have to denounce the Sixth and Thirteenth Protocols of the ECHR to reinstate the death penalty, but its not of itself incompatible with remaining subject to the ECHR. The death penalty is also forbidden by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights as given legal force by the Lisbon Treaty so abolition is de jure part of the EU acquis. Abolition is also a requirement for membership of the Council of Europe so we'd have to leave that too.TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.rpjs said:
And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.
Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.
Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.
What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...0 -
Cheers, I suspect reintroduction of the death penalty is a non starter.rpjs said:
We would have to denounce the Sixth and Thirteenth Protocols of the ECHR to reinstate the death penalty, but its not of itself incompatible with remaining subject to the ECHR. The death penalty is also forbidden by the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights as given legal force by the Lisbon Treaty so abolition is de jure part of the EU acquis. Abolition is also a requirement for membership of the Council of Europe so we'd have to leave that too.TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought it was an ECHR thing not a CJEU thing.rpjs said:
And of course reinstating the death penalty would be incompatible with membership of the EU.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.
Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.
Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.
What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...0 -
Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
0 -
I'd like to think you're right about that, but I think it's quite complacent.philiph said:
Chances of reintroducing the death penalty in my opinion? 5% or less in the next 30 years.Pong said:fpt;
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
You could argue we do have a death penalty. Parts of the military are able to take out a specific person as a target. Spooks? Who knows.
The massive growth of the ethnic minority population likely over the next 30 years, muslims especially, could well tilt average public opinion back towards a more conservative stance on issues like the death penalty and homosexuality.
And we appear to be heading into quite a crime wave as we reap the whirlwind of years of police cuts and defective politically correct leadership, not to mention the worsening problems of terrorism.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if capital punishment was back in 30 years' time.0 -
You know it's a slow friday when PB starts on the death penalty....0
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The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
Surely a ban is a quite sufficient deterrent ?Slackbladder said:You know it's a slow friday when PB starts on the death penalty....
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First we start on those who like pineapple on pizza, then those who think Die Hard is a Christmas film.Slackbladder said:You know it's a slow friday when PB starts on the death penalty....
0 -
All is not well with Germany v Trump and US
Deutsche Bank CRISIS: German giant posts £1.9 BILLION loss and blames US tax reform
DEUTSCHE Bank has blamed US tax reforms for a net loss of £1.9 billion (€2.2 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Deutsche Bank chief James von Moltke addresses revenue drop
The finance titan posted a £436 million (€497 million) loss for the year, marking the third consecutive annual loss for Deutsche Bank.
Reuters had forecast a net loss of £1.1 billion (€1.25 billion) for the German lender in the last quarter of 2017, however Deutsche exceeded this by a wide margin.
The bank said its profit margins had worsened due to a drop in investment bankin and changes to the system of taxation in the US, CNBC said.
It explained it had to cough up for a non-cash charge of around £1.2 billion (€1.4 billion), due to a valuation adjustment on Deferred Tax Assets in the US.0 -
Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
You could say that the Lib Dems are winning here
Mr. Eagles, if you had the same appreciation of classical history as Hans Gruber, you wouldn't hold such silly opinions.0 -
Liz Truss prepares for Number 10.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/9594471877919825930 -
In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
Brilliant.Big_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Wasn't the reshuffle the omniomnisomethingsomething shambles? What about some other piece of utterly overhyped news? That was surely the corner turned?
Surely.0 -
In case anyone has nothing better to do, you should be able to catch a Sky News interview with me (on live exports, praising the government) around 830.0
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Hmm - 'cough up' for 'non-cash charge'? Does this journalist have the faintest clue what these words mean?Big_G_NorthWales said:It explained it had to cough up for a non-cash charge of around £1.2 billion (€1.4 billion), due to a valuation adjustment on Deferred Tax Assets in the US.
0 -
Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plusAlastairMeeks said:
In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon0 -
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/oneillnutces_uk_5a747294e4b01ce33eb2243b
Passionate Brexiteers are seen as a “bunch of emotional nutcases” outside of the UK, former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill has said.
The ex-Goldman Sachs chief economist, who quit his post as a minister last autumn, also hit out at Leave backers “trashing” civil servants in the Treasury, calling their claims “ridiculous nonsense”.0 -
This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The assassination is going quite well0 -
Looks that way Tyson but logically Corbyn should be out of sight and he is nottyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon0 -
Theresa May is doing her best to steal all of Don’t Know’s positions.TheScreamingEagles said:
This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
Predictable remainer and remainer commentswilliamglenn said:http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/oneillnutces_uk_5a747294e4b01ce33eb2243b
Passionate Brexiteers are seen as a “bunch of emotional nutcases” outside of the UK, former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill has said.
The ex-Goldman Sachs chief economist, who quit his post as a minister last autumn, also hit out at Leave backers “trashing” civil servants in the Treasury, calling their claims “ridiculous nonsense”.0 -
You might have noticed there was something of a media campaign the other way during the election (and the 2ish years leading up to it), remind me again just how far the Conservatives ended up out of sight thanks to that?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's
Labour should be out of sight
0 -
You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plusAlastairMeeks said:
In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
What a surprise. Eurofanatic who was a senior member of a company involved in some of the EU's biggest scandals continues in his efforts to undermine Brexit. I suspect he has had rather more than the traditional 30 pieces of silver for his efforts.williamglenn said:http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/oneillnutces_uk_5a747294e4b01ce33eb2243b
Passionate Brexiteers are seen as a “bunch of emotional nutcases” outside of the UK, former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill has said.
The ex-Goldman Sachs chief economist, who quit his post as a minister last autumn, also hit out at Leave backers “trashing” civil servants in the Treasury, calling their claims “ridiculous nonsense”.0 -
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Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrativeAlastairMeeks said:
You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plusAlastairMeeks said:
In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
Are you really trying to excuse Corbyn's labour not being way aheadTheJezziah said:
You might have noticed there was something of a media campaign the other way during the election (and the 2ish years leading up to it), remind me again just how far the Conservatives ended up out of sight thanks to that?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico's
Labour should be out of sight0 -
I take it you don't read daily newspapers then.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrativeAlastairMeeks said:
You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plusAlastairMeeks said:
In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
This piece confirms something I've been thinking about for a while.
When Dave retired, his replacement should have been a Leaver except Boris.
A Leave Prime Minister, for example, might have felt able to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens’ rights from the outset. Mrs May, feeling she had to prove her steel to Brexiters, refused and allowed Europe to think she was using them as bargaining chips.
“This created a spiral of panicking and bad blood from the beginning,” reflects one Brussels watcher. It was Mrs May’s determination to show her Brexit credentials that convinced her to trigger Article 50 before the UK was ready, senior Leavers believe.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/time-running-out-brexiters/0 -
We'll be paying down the depreciation and the deficit.Richard_Nabavi said:
Hmm - 'cough up' for 'non-cash charge'? Does this journalist have the faintest clue what these words mean?Big_G_NorthWales said:It explained it had to cough up for a non-cash charge of around £1.2 billion (€1.4 billion), due to a valuation adjustment on Deferred Tax Assets in the US.
Seriously though, modern algorithms take note of what journalists say so even the most ill informed can have an effect if his twitter account reaches wide enough (In the long run that means there is probably a market out there for overbought and oversold companies as journalists tend to hyperbole)0 -
Thanks to those thoughtful replies top my Brexit conundrum earlier...Nabavi, Oblitus et FF...
RichardN...I think you are too intelligent for your own good which isn't necessarily always a good thing in itself because it probably does (quite rightly so) lend an air of superiority.
But still there is a bottom line...if the numbers are not there for a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit in the HoC...and those are the outcomes produced...then what happens?
But presumably there is a deal out there that will pass the HoC....and that will probably mean that in likelihood nothing much will change...
Anyhow I'm hunkered up with the Aussie Flu and going back to Netflix0 -
Virtual Reality Wensleydale cheese factory?williamglenn said:Liz Truss prepares for Number 10.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/9594471877919825930 -
Only read on line including the mail and guardian but mostly Sky and BBCAlastairMeeks said:
I take it you don't read daily newspapers then.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrativeAlastairMeeks said:
You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plusAlastairMeeks said:
In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
Intern world.SandyRentool said:
Virtual Reality Wensleydale cheese factory?williamglenn said:Liz Truss prepares for Number 10.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/9594471877919825930 -
Comment of the day.williamglenn said:
Theresa May is doing her best to steal all of Don’t Know’s positions.TheScreamingEagles said:
This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
Leavers were always going to cry betrayal. Like true communists, its not the ideology that is at fault, only the implementation.TheScreamingEagles said:This piece confirms something I've been thinking about for a while.
When Dave retired, his replacement should have been a Leaver except Boris.
A Leave Prime Minister, for example, might have felt able to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens’ rights from the outset. Mrs May, feeling she had to prove her steel to Brexiters, refused and allowed Europe to think she was using them as bargaining chips.
“This created a spiral of panicking and bad blood from the beginning,” reflects one Brussels watcher. It was Mrs May’s determination to show her Brexit credentials that convinced her to trigger Article 50 before the UK was ready, senior Leavers believe.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/time-running-out-brexiters/
Of course, these senior leavers never complained at the time of any of these decisions.0 -
Just pointing out that if you think this media coverage that May and the Tories are now having is such a major factor then why the hell was the election so close when the media had spent 2 years going at Corbyn and Labour even harder whilst also praising May and the Conservatives?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you really trying to excuse Corbyn's labour not being way ahead
Also, polls.... Corbyn... not always the best guide outside election time
0 -
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen (for a long while)0 -
For me, @Richard_Nabavi 's comment to you at 12:43 on the previous thread is a lucid account of where the EU argument should be, i.e. between a customs union a la Turque and Canada++. I doubt there is much appetite in the Commons for a no deal outcome, though that would be my preference, followed up by negotiations with the EU after we have left.tyson said:Thanks to those thoughtful replies top my Brexit conundrum earlier...Nabavi, Oblitus et FF...
RichardN...I think you are too intelligent for your own good which isn't necessarily always a good thing in itself because it probably does (quite rightly so) lend an air of superiority.
But still there is a bottom line...if the numbers are not there for a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit in the HoC...and those are the outcomes produced...then what happens?
But presumably there is a deal out there that will pass the HoC....and that will probably mean that in likelihood nothing much will change...
Anyhow I'm hunkered up with the Aussie Flu and going back to Netflix
0 -
"Those who think that they know, but are mistaken , and act upon their mistake , are the most dangerous people to have in charge."williamglenn said:
Theresa May is doing her best to steal all of Don’t Know’s positions.TheScreamingEagles said:
This poll also has 'Don't Know' beating Theresa May on the best PM question.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0 -
I think by UK you really mean England, and to a lesser extent Wales.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen (for a long while)0 -
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Shouldnt be happening to a government in waiting......0
-
Mr. Slackbladder, I've said before that I think Corbyn's an anchor for both main parties. If he gets replaced by a non-far left moron, then that'll either immediately open up room for a third party (if his successor is poor) or, once said successor goes away and has a lacklustre replacement, there will then be room for a third party.
As an aside, those wanting us to stay in the customs union are making an I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP party quite likely, and they could do well.0 -
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
He didn't enter office as a war criminal - he was only a war criminal for part of that decade!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Whereas Corbyn has been an IRA supporter throughout his career.SandyRentool said:
He didn't enter office as a war criminal - he was only a war criminal for part of that decade!TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Good afternoon, Mr.D.Morris_Dancer said:Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
You could say that the Lib Dems are winning here
Mr. Eagles, if you had the same appreciation of classical history as Hans Gruber, you wouldn't hold such silly opinions.
Just for you:
https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opinion/f1/how-mercedes-and-ferrari-will-approach-f1-20180 -
I’ll dig out Philipe Sands piece on it.Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
He knows his stuff.0 -
He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .stevef said:
Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Did I miss his trial and acquittal?Yorkcity said:
He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .stevef said:
Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Yes lol I think we all must have.Maybe it was on Jeremy Kyle one morning when I was at work.SandyRentool said:
Did I miss his trial and acquittal?Yorkcity said:
He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .stevef said:
Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
It looks like both successful councillors won on local issues, which is as it should be.0
-
Rees-Mogg doubles down.
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/9594616941866885120 -
My word you lot are easy to wind up.SandyRentool said:
Did I miss his trial and acquittal?Yorkcity said:
He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .stevef said:
Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.0 -
Mr. B, cheers for that. Was vaguely aware of the Mercedes' rake angle, but not Ferrari stretching their car philosophy.
Of course, if they both screw it up, Red Bull will win the title, and maybe Alonso the Drivers'.
0 -
I'm no fan of JRM, but he has a point about contacts between officials and Charles Grant (see the three tweets previous to the one you quoted).williamglenn said:Rees-Mogg doubles down.
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/9594616941866885120 -
I know.Anorak said:
My word you lot are easy to wind up.SandyRentool said:
Did I miss his trial and acquittal?Yorkcity said:
He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .stevef said:
Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
Sunday’s thread is now going to be
‘If the war criminal Blair can win a majority in 2005 then so can peace loving Corbyn in 2022’0 -
I'm most intrigued by this idea that ministers should accept responsibility. Mr Rees-Mogg's fellow travellers have been quite averse to this idea up to this point.0
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The more I think about it the more I am convinced Canada and any pluses is unworkable. There's too much to negotiate. It's not just the FTA (which took actual Canada more than a decade to get from initial soundings to interim implementation). We have also have fisheries, citizenship, nuclear fuels, nuclear waste, normal waste, energy markets, airline operations and safety etc plus 800 third party agreements to sort out at the same time.tyson said:Thanks to those thoughtful replies top my Brexit conundrum earlier...Nabavi, Oblitus et FF...
RichardN...I think you are too intelligent for your own good which isn't necessarily always a good thing in itself because it probably does (quite rightly so) lend an air of superiority.
But still there is a bottom line...if the numbers are not there for a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit in the HoC...and those are the outcomes produced...then what happens?
But presumably there is a deal out there that will pass the HoC....and that will probably mean that in likelihood nothing much will change...
Anyhow I'm hunkered up with the Aussie Flu and going back to Netflix
The easiest negotiations are minimal change or minimal agreement. The first is more likely IMO and certainly better.0 -
For the first time the majority of the seven main German pollsters have the Social Democrats below 20%:
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/0 -
Mr. JS, not heard anything about the coalition talks for a few days. Is there a formal time limit for them to either agree or call fresh elections?0
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Whenever I see a Corbynite on twitter branding Blair a war criminal, I read it in the voice of General Melchett denouncing the "Flanders Pigeon Murderer".TheScreamingEagles said:
I know.Anorak said:
My word you lot are easy to wind up.SandyRentool said:
Did I miss his trial and acquittal?Yorkcity said:
He was not and he is not under any jurisdiction .stevef said:
Blair was a war criminal in 1992? Seriously?Yorkcity said:
Bullshite under what jurisdiction ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Indeed. They were led by a war criminal.stevef said:
Labour wasnt led by a hard left Marxist during that decade.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon a bad Brexit might break the deadlock.Slackbladder said:
Absolutely. There's 50odd percent of the electorate which will never vote Tory, and 50odd percent which will never vote labour. That limits the ability of any party to be able to get a majorty in the future.tyson said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen.
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
Sunday’s thread is now going to be
‘If the war criminal Blair can win a majority in 2005 then so can peace loving Corbyn in 2022’0 -
The loss side of that from any Labour perspective is no other Labour candidate, especially if it is one from the right drains the Conservative vote (by being less scary) whilst keeping enough of the Labour vote to actually win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Slackbladder, I've said before that I think Corbyn's an anchor for both main parties. If he gets replaced by a non-far left moron, then that'll either immediately open up room for a third party (if his successor is poor) or, once said successor goes away and has a lacklustre replacement, there will then be room for a third party.
As an aside, those wanting us to stay in the customs union are making an I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP party quite likely, and they could do well.
From the viewpoint of wanting Labour to win, even though I think you are right to an extent, there are soft edges to the Tory vote that can be worn away* and assuming nobody changes their minds in a pro Tory direction whilst their in government the next few years a small demographic shift of a few older voters going and a few new adults joining the voting pool.
This is assuming everything else stays the same, I think Labour have a massive advantage come election campaign time.
*Look at yourself mentioning the not another UKIP party. Ultimately I think Brexit is a much more difficult issue for the Tories and could impact their vote.0 -
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/959463876038406144williamglenn said:Rees-Mogg doubles down.
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/959461694186688512
There are some prime nut job replies to that JRM 'thread'.0 -
A while back I thought about doing a thread comparing Corbyn to Brigadier Sir Bernard Proudfoot Smith.Anorak said:Whenever I see a Corbynite on twitter branding Blair a war criminal, I read it in the voice of General Melchett denouncing the "Flanders Pigeon Murderer".
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He is indeed the polar opposite of Jezza, but with similar appeal.Scott_P said:/twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466231022653445
twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466538230304768
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466937704165378
If it goes to a membership vote he will romp home. Members love a fanatic, and Tories love a posh'un.0 -
It's a reasonable to question contacts between civil servants and think-tanks and discussion of unpublished papers. Jacob Rees-Mogg continues to misrepresent Grant's commentary, however. Grant's claim is that the Treasury has clear evidence that leaving the Customs Union is more damaging than any benefit from third party deals that are enabled by leaving the CU, which is the official policy. The Treasury is withholding this information because of the policy but believes it will need to come out later. Grant probably needs to have a clearer idea of an off the record briefing. I guess he isn't a journalist.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'm no fan of JRM, but he has a point about contacts between officials and Charles Grant (see the three tweets previous to the one you quoted).williamglenn said:Rees-Mogg doubles down.
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/9594616941866885120 -
Not sure, good questions.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JS, not heard anything about the coalition talks for a few days. Is there a formal time limit for them to either agree or call fresh elections?
0 -
That came out in the focus group I read. Essentially if you are going to elect a caricature, you might as well go for the most authentically fake one - ie Rees-Mogg rather than Johnson.Foxy said:
He is indeed the polar opposite of Jezza, but with similar appeal.Scott_P said:/twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466231022653445
twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466538230304768
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466937704165378
If it goes to a membership vote he will romp home. Members love a fanatic, and Tories love a posh'un.0 -
By only 51 v 46 % the Germans support a fourth term for Merkel.AndyJS said:For the first time the majority of the seven main German pollsters have the Social Democrats below 20%:
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
The markets think she is 90% likely to get one. That needs a vote of SPD members as to which:
"Of respondents who themselves identified as members of the SPD, 52 percent said they saw a "grand coalition" government positively, while 46 percent said they viewed it negatively."0 -
Hmm, just lost power for a few minutes. Same thing happened a few days ago. Bit odd.0
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Deadline is Sunday but I think that's self imposedAndyJS said:
Not sure, good questions.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JS, not heard anything about the coalition talks for a few days. Is there a formal time limit for them to either agree or call fresh elections?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/merkel-bloc-spd-still-face-heavy-lifting-in-coalition-talks0 -
Russian hacks?Morris_Dancer said:Hmm, just lost power for a few minutes. Same thing happened a few days ago. Bit odd.
0 -
Mr. Borough, it affected a few other houses, I think. Also, not much is interweb-connected (no connected kettle or anything like that).0
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Is there a single day now without JRM being in the headlines? 0
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Perhaps it's the Russian's?Morris_Dancer said:Hmm, just lost power for a few minutes. Same thing happened a few days ago. Bit odd.
0 -
But the Tories have a better way of electing a leader. Tory MPs choose the two candidates to be put to the members, filtering out the extremists who would most appeal to members but not voters. Anne Widdecome would have been Tory leader years ago if not for this.FF43 said:
That came out in the focus group I read. Essentially if you are going to elect a caricature, you might as well go for the most authentically fake one - ie Rees-Mogg rather than Johnson.Foxy said:
He is indeed the polar opposite of Jezza, but with similar appeal.Scott_P said:/twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466231022653445
twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466538230304768
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466937704165378
If it goes to a membership vote he will romp home. Members love a fanatic, and Tories love a posh'un.0 -
NEW THREAD0
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Slow day.
But, unlike others, I do seize on the new YouGov figures. Removing Don’t Knows, we are now nearly at 54% Remain / 46% Leave.
Yes, it’s one one poll, but the trend has been very consistent - with last month being the only anomaly.
The reason this is important is two-fold.
First, the design of the referendum was flawed. We simply did not know what Brexit meant, aside from formally leaving the EU. I find it obnoxious that people now seek to explain exactly what people voted for - it wasn’t on the ballot. As Brexit becomes clearer, a shift in sentiment is relevant.
Second, the results were very close, given the profound constitutional upheaval at stake. One cannot just ignore the 48, or Scotland, or Northern Ireland.
When feeling most optimistic I look on Brexit as a continued debate about our future relationship with Europe. What seems clear now is that WTO is off the table. It has lost the battle of ideas, and we are left with only a handful of options: An FTA outside the SM & CU (Canada); An FTA outside the SM and inside the/a CU (Turkey); EFTA/EEA (Norway); a new form of associate membership; and Remain with various opt-outs.
I agree with Mr Nabavi that the PM has actually been clear in her preference for the first option. However, I also think her modus operandi is to play for time and let both debate and political reality resolve itself. It is possible that she has realised Canada+ would seriously dent the auto industry among others, and is now preparing for the Turkey option. That of course, renders Liam Fox redundant - and I do think that the idea of trading beyond Europe is THE ideological backbone of Brexit. I’d be amazed if JRM and the ERG signed off on it, or Boris for that matter.
Personally, I think EEA/EFTA - or a near equivalent arrangement - during an extended transition period, is the right path, and I think the nature of our final resting place is still to play for. Once May’s deal is done, we should have another vote on whether to proceed per her deal or whether to stay in the EEA/EFTA. Not just Brexit - but the nature of Brexit - needs democratic legitimacy.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
It is a clear position.Richard_Nabavi said:Not so. She's been 100% clear that we won't be in the SIngle Market and Customs Union, and that within those parameters she wants as comprehensive a trade deal as we can get, with the aim of a deal closer than Canada's. How on earth can anyone claim that is unreasonable or unclear? Of course we can't say for sure how much of deal better than Canada's we can get, which causes uncertainty, but the blame for that uncertainty lies squarely with the EU, who for over a year have refused to discuss the future relationship. It's bonkers to blame Theresa May for that, but hopefully the lumbering EU bureaucracy will start discussing the main issue soon.
It is also unattainable in the time we have.
The problem is simple.
The EEA agreement is 41 pages long (and there aren't that many words on each page, some pages just list the parties to the agreement, and some are the table of contents). It is not a complicated agreement, because signatories are bound by a large portion of EU law.
The Canada deal is longer, because it deals with things on a sector by sector basis, and each area is negotiated according to special interests. It's over 1,500 pages long, and the font size looks smaller to me.
We can (and will) negotiate a bespoke agreement with the EU. It will likely be 3,000 pages long, because we want greater integration than Canada did, and with financial services included. We also need to come up with a system for managing compliance, as it is the individual countries that make up the EU (and not the EU itself) that is responsible for day-to-day implementation. This agreement will contain provisions that prevent the erection of NTBs, and these will limit the sovereignty of the British Parliament.
The chances of this deal being agreed by the end of 2018 are zero. The chances of it being fully locked down by the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020 are close to zero. No major trade negotiation - especially where one party has 27 members, all of whom have effective vetoes - gets done this quickly if it is bespoke in nature.
Before the EU vote, I said that the government should be explicit in what they wanted, and that would be a near immediate exit to time limited EEA. We would sign a five year agreement with the EU based on having all the rights and obligations as Norway. This would have a provision for a single one year extension.
This was, and is, the best solution to the problem (with the proviso that we've now managed to lose almost two years).0 -
Nor listen to the Today programme's distinctly pro-Brexit tone.AlastairMeeks said:
I take it you don't read daily newspapers then.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Agree the 6% but it should be way more with the media's non stop anti Brexit narrativeAlastairMeeks said:
You can either place credence in this poll or not. Your call.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Grasping at straws - tell me when it is 15% plusAlastairMeeks said:
In the same poll, "Wrong to Leave" polls 6% ahead. Perhaps the public are listening to that self-indulgent clap trap from London centric pro remain media and politicos after all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The media's daily assassination of TM and the conservatives is just not working. The public are not listening to the self indulgent clap trap coming out of the London centric pro remain media and politico'sBig_G_NorthWales said:Britain Elects
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
Labour should be out of sight0
