Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest local by elections see a LAB loss to LDs on swing of 35% in strong Leave area
Falmouth, Smithick on Cornwall (Lab defence) Result: Lab 643 (60% +20% on last time), Con 184 (17% -7% on last time), Lib Dem 184 (17% -2% on last time), Green 57 (5% -11% on last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 459 (43%) on a swing of 13.5% from Con to Lab
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Thanks, Harry.
I'd love this to be a sign of a resurgence for the Lib Dems, as I feel there is both a market for them, and a position developing.
However I seriously doubt that the great invisible man, aka Cable, is the person to take advantage of any developments.
Podcast: The final bit on the death penalty (30 mins in) was interesting. I'm not sure I agree that public opinion is likely to shift from the current polling towards No during any death penalty referendum campaign, though. I also disagree that the issue isn't likely to come up - think it's quite likely it will be leveraged by social rightwingers in the medium term, especially in the case of a failed brexit. The upcoming tory leadership campaign presents just such an opportunity for an issue entrepreneur to make a name for themselves. I don't think it will happen, but it's not unthinkable.
If they get a chance to run another negative referendum campaign - in the leave mould - and get people angry enough - I think Yes would win. Crucially, win or lose, there's little incentive for those on the right to be liberal/anti-death penalty any more. The unthinkable has become thinkable.
Plus we had a de facto ban on the death penalty long before we joined the EC/EU.
Even JRM is opposed to the death penalty.
Off the top of my head the only Tory in the cabinet I think in favour of the death penalty is David Davis.
What a hypocrite he is, pretends to be the champion of civil rights yet...
You could argue we do have a death penalty. Parts of the military are able to take out a specific person as a target. Spooks? Who knows.
Probably a majority opinion that.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/profiles/david-davis-you-ask-the-questions-852351.html
I'm going to sound like Donald Rumsfeld and Alberto Gonzales, but they are enemy combatants.
@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 42% (-)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Jan
12:41 PM - Feb 2, 2018
75 75 Replies 201 201 Retweets 270 270 likes
The massive growth of the ethnic minority population likely over the next 30 years, muslims especially, could well tilt average public opinion back towards a more conservative stance on issues like the death penalty and homosexuality.
And we appear to be heading into quite a crime wave as we reap the whirlwind of years of police cuts and defective politically correct leadership, not to mention the worsening problems of terrorism.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if capital punishment was back in 30 years' time.
Labour should be out of sight
Deutsche Bank CRISIS: German giant posts £1.9 BILLION loss and blames US tax reform
DEUTSCHE Bank has blamed US tax reforms for a net loss of £1.9 billion (€2.2 billion) in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Deutsche Bank chief James von Moltke addresses revenue drop
The finance titan posted a £436 million (€497 million) loss for the year, marking the third consecutive annual loss for Deutsche Bank.
Reuters had forecast a net loss of £1.1 billion (€1.25 billion) for the German lender in the last quarter of 2017, however Deutsche exceeded this by a wide margin.
The bank said its profit margins had worsened due to a drop in investment bankin and changes to the system of taxation in the US, CNBC said.
It explained it had to cough up for a non-cash charge of around £1.2 billion (€1.4 billion), due to a valuation adjustment on Deferred Tax Assets in the US.
You could say that the Lib Dems are winning here
Mr. Eagles, if you had the same appreciation of classical history as Hans Gruber, you wouldn't hold such silly opinions.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/959447187791982593
Wasn't the reshuffle the omniomnisomethingsomething shambles? What about some other piece of utterly overhyped news? That was surely the corner turned?
Surely.
The Conservatives are doing their level best to knock ten bells out of each other....
My view is FWIW...we have a polarised and hardened electorate that has coalesced around 2 pretty even voting blocs and we are not going to see any change in voting intentions anytime soon
Passionate Brexiteers are seen as a “bunch of emotional nutcases” outside of the UK, former Tory Treasury minister Lord O’Neill has said.
The ex-Goldman Sachs chief economist, who quit his post as a minister last autumn, also hit out at Leave backers “trashing” civil servants in the Treasury, calling their claims “ridiculous nonsense”.
The assassination is going quite well
When Dave retired, his replacement should have been a Leaver except Boris.
A Leave Prime Minister, for example, might have felt able to unilaterally guarantee EU citizens’ rights from the outset. Mrs May, feeling she had to prove her steel to Brexiters, refused and allowed Europe to think she was using them as bargaining chips.
“This created a spiral of panicking and bad blood from the beginning,” reflects one Brussels watcher. It was Mrs May’s determination to show her Brexit credentials that convinced her to trigger Article 50 before the UK was ready, senior Leavers believe.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/time-running-out-brexiters/
Seriously though, modern algorithms take note of what journalists say so even the most ill informed can have an effect if his twitter account reaches wide enough (In the long run that means there is probably a market out there for overbought and oversold companies as journalists tend to hyperbole)
RichardN...I think you are too intelligent for your own good which isn't necessarily always a good thing in itself because it probably does (quite rightly so) lend an air of superiority.
But still there is a bottom line...if the numbers are not there for a hard Brexit or No Deal Brexit in the HoC...and those are the outcomes produced...then what happens?
But presumably there is a deal out there that will pass the HoC....and that will probably mean that in likelihood nothing much will change...
Anyhow I'm hunkered up with the Aussie Flu and going back to Netflix
Of course, these senior leavers never complained at the time of any of these decisions.
Also, polls.... Corbyn... not always the best guide outside election time
The only way this deadlock is probably going to be broken is the rise of a 3rd party.
Which, given the tribal nature of UK politics and the value still of the two brands, will never happen (for a long while)
After all Labour supported membership of the ERM until it went tits up and Labour led in the polls for pretty much the next decade.
As an aside, those wanting us to stay in the customs union are making an I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP party quite likely, and they could do well.
Just for you:
https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/opinion/f1/how-mercedes-and-ferrari-will-approach-f1-2018
He knows his stuff.
https://twitter.com/jacob_rees_mogg/status/959461694186688512
Of course, if they both screw it up, Red Bull will win the title, and maybe Alonso the Drivers'.
Sunday’s thread is now going to be
‘If the war criminal Blair can win a majority in 2005 then so can peace loving Corbyn in 2022’
The easiest negotiations are minimal change or minimal agreement. The first is more likely IMO and certainly better.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466538230304768
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/959466937704165378
From the viewpoint of wanting Labour to win, even though I think you are right to an extent, there are soft edges to the Tory vote that can be worn away* and assuming nobody changes their minds in a pro Tory direction whilst their in government the next few years a small demographic shift of a few older voters going and a few new adults joining the voting pool.
This is assuming everything else stays the same, I think Labour have a massive advantage come election campaign time.
*Look at yourself mentioning the not another UKIP party. Ultimately I think Brexit is a much more difficult issue for the Tories and could impact their vote.
There are some prime nut job replies to that JRM 'thread'.
If it goes to a membership vote he will romp home. Members love a fanatic, and Tories love a posh'un.
The markets think she is 90% likely to get one. That needs a vote of SPD members as to which:
"Of respondents who themselves identified as members of the SPD, 52 percent said they saw a "grand coalition" government positively, while 46 percent said they viewed it negatively."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-02/merkel-bloc-spd-still-face-heavy-lifting-in-coalition-talks
But, unlike others, I do seize on the new YouGov figures. Removing Don’t Knows, we are now nearly at 54% Remain / 46% Leave.
Yes, it’s one one poll, but the trend has been very consistent - with last month being the only anomaly.
The reason this is important is two-fold.
First, the design of the referendum was flawed. We simply did not know what Brexit meant, aside from formally leaving the EU. I find it obnoxious that people now seek to explain exactly what people voted for - it wasn’t on the ballot. As Brexit becomes clearer, a shift in sentiment is relevant.
Second, the results were very close, given the profound constitutional upheaval at stake. One cannot just ignore the 48, or Scotland, or Northern Ireland.
When feeling most optimistic I look on Brexit as a continued debate about our future relationship with Europe. What seems clear now is that WTO is off the table. It has lost the battle of ideas, and we are left with only a handful of options: An FTA outside the SM & CU (Canada); An FTA outside the SM and inside the/a CU (Turkey); EFTA/EEA (Norway); a new form of associate membership; and Remain with various opt-outs.
I agree with Mr Nabavi that the PM has actually been clear in her preference for the first option. However, I also think her modus operandi is to play for time and let both debate and political reality resolve itself. It is possible that she has realised Canada+ would seriously dent the auto industry among others, and is now preparing for the Turkey option. That of course, renders Liam Fox redundant - and I do think that the idea of trading beyond Europe is THE ideological backbone of Brexit. I’d be amazed if JRM and the ERG signed off on it, or Boris for that matter.
Personally, I think EEA/EFTA - or a near equivalent arrangement - during an extended transition period, is the right path, and I think the nature of our final resting place is still to play for. Once May’s deal is done, we should have another vote on whether to proceed per her deal or whether to stay in the EEA/EFTA. Not just Brexit - but the nature of Brexit - needs democratic legitimacy.
NEW THREAD
It is also unattainable in the time we have.
The problem is simple.
The EEA agreement is 41 pages long (and there aren't that many words on each page, some pages just list the parties to the agreement, and some are the table of contents). It is not a complicated agreement, because signatories are bound by a large portion of EU law.
The Canada deal is longer, because it deals with things on a sector by sector basis, and each area is negotiated according to special interests. It's over 1,500 pages long, and the font size looks smaller to me.
We can (and will) negotiate a bespoke agreement with the EU. It will likely be 3,000 pages long, because we want greater integration than Canada did, and with financial services included. We also need to come up with a system for managing compliance, as it is the individual countries that make up the EU (and not the EU itself) that is responsible for day-to-day implementation. This agreement will contain provisions that prevent the erection of NTBs, and these will limit the sovereignty of the British Parliament.
The chances of this deal being agreed by the end of 2018 are zero. The chances of it being fully locked down by the end of the transition period on 31 December 2020 are close to zero. No major trade negotiation - especially where one party has 27 members, all of whom have effective vetoes - gets done this quickly if it is bespoke in nature.
Before the EU vote, I said that the government should be explicit in what they wanted, and that would be a near immediate exit to time limited EEA. We would sign a five year agreement with the EU based on having all the rights and obligations as Norway. This would have a provision for a single one year extension.
This was, and is, the best solution to the problem (with the proviso that we've now managed to lose almost two years).