politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will
Comments
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I agree. Even if she survives until March, she's far from sure of surviving to 2022.david_herdson said:I'm afraid I disagree with Mike. May will make it through the next few weeks and won't see it through to 2022. His comment in his header:
"The broad view within the parliamentary party has been in that Theresa May would stand down in 2019"
is right - but it may be that she has to be pushed into standing down. Her determination to fight on doesn't change that.
Mike's correct that for her and her supporters, there can always be found reasons for not acting now (or for a preferred but undefined 'later'), but some reasons are better than others. The intensity of the Brexit negotiations is a prime reason for not acting now but that reason will end in the Spring of next year. Yes, there'll still be the final exit arrangement to sort out but a few months' breathing space then might actually be a good thing.
The big difference between now and, say, Thatcher or Major's time, is that then there was one scheduled leadership election a year which both focussed attention on that time but also meant that the scope to act at any other given time was very limited. Now, a leadership election can be triggered at any point, which while the argument of 'now or never' no longer applies (unlike in 1990 when if Heseltine hadn't acted after Howe's resignation, Thatcher would undoubtedly have led the Tories into 1992), it also means that the parliamentary party can act on a trigger of any given moment.
I wouldn't yet discount a delegation of grey-suited men going to No 10 next year to advise the PM to take the graceful way out.0 -
Incidentally, Chapter 47 of Machiavelli's Discourses on Livy is very relevant to this topic.
It's about generals and particulars, with the people, at one time, being very against the senate. So, a chap locked the (knowing) senate up in a building, and offered to kill them one by one, once a replacement for every senator had been selected. The plebs put up one name, but that prompted mockery, and another, and likewise. All agreed the senate were horrid but the replacements got no support whatsoever, and, in the end, they agreed to let the senate resume its functions, having given the senators quite the fright.0 -
I cannot see any regulatory authority changing a comma of EU-wide legislation or regulation either now, in 2020, or for any time in future or for future EU rules & regs. In so doing I imagine they will wish to prove to the EU that they are good partners and hope for an invite to the table for the next working group.david_herdson said:
Whether or not it'd be a good idea in principle to copy the EU data protection legislation (yes, it would), the fact that the UK is still an EU member is rather pertinent in why the bill's going through.TOPPING said:
I bloody love this taking back control.stodge said:
..there is a UK Data Protection Bill going through Parliament which will put all the aspects of the GDPR into UK law.OldKingCole said:Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.
Unless we make it so!0 -
Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds0 -
Yes, it's been clear from the outset that Theresa wasn't going anywhere. GE 2017 is regarded as a kind of freakish anomaly, and it's just a case of counting the days until the electorate is given the chance to redeem itself and return Theresa will the thumping mandate that she's always deserved. As for the Tories, they should start showing some gratitude.0
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Page 109 of the balance sheet:Sandpit said:
Ouch. What chance they got in a few low-bidding wars with Carillion over the past few years?Yorkcity said:
https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.Pulpstar said:Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...
http://investors.capita.com/~/media/Files/C/Capita-IR-V2/documents/capita-annual-report-2016.pdf
2.7 billion of "intangible assets".
Also this is a great line in page 110 of the accounts:
The relative size of the Group’s intangible assets, excluding goodwill, makes the judgements surrounding the estimated useful lives material to the Group’s financial position and performance ^_~0 -
I'm a constituent of Soames and my view of him is quite torn down the middle. On the one hand he's a colourful character and I like his one nation politics. On the other, he's a bloody awful constituency MP who is never seen in his constituency for years on end (and it's only about 30 miles from Westminster). His whole constituency association is incredibly lazy and invisible, yet they somehow hold 90% plus of the council wards in the seat (Mid Sussex).Mortimer said:
It must be quite a compliment for Soames to be considered the first Tory MP likely to give up his seat....not.Nigelb said:
Just last year it was Rudd:Scott_P said:
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/08/will-nicholas-soames-step-aside-to-make-way-for-prime-minister-rudd/
Given the years of Tory inactivity here, this is the kind of seat where the Lib Dems might fancy their chances in a by-election. The seat voted Remain and the Lib Dems ran the Tories quite close prior to 2010.0 -
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!0 -
As you said, Mr T. that's called 'taking back control'!TOPPING said:
I cannot see any regulatory authority changing a comma of EU-wide legislation or regulation either now, in 2020, or for any time in future or for future EU rules & regs. In so doing I imagine they will wish to prove to the EU that they are good partners and hope for an invite to the table for the next working group.david_herdson said:
Whether or not it'd be a good idea in principle to copy the EU data protection legislation (yes, it would), the fact that the UK is still an EU member is rather pertinent in why the bill's going through.TOPPING said:
I bloody love this taking back control.stodge said:
..there is a UK Data Protection Bill going through Parliament which will put all the aspects of the GDPR into UK law.OldKingCole said:Interesting note on the BBC site about the security issues around Brexit, the need for data sharing and the need for common standards on data.
We manage it, sort of, with the US, so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.
Unless we make it so!0 -
Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.0
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Which is why there is a risk point this May.stodge said:Morning all
On topic, what else was Theresa May going to say ? No politician could or would say anything else - Margaret Thatcher wasn't a quitter on the Tuesday evening but had gone by Thursday morning. David Cameron wasn't going to quit if the EU Referendum was lost but then quit.
As to whether May should go that's for the Conservative Party to decide - it's got bugger all to do with the rest of us who just have to live with the consequences. As an outsider May is safe until or unless two things happen - a) she is clearly shown to be a loser and b) someone else is clearly shown to be a winner.
It's worth repeating - what did for Thatcher weren't the polls showing the Conservatives 10 points behind Labour with her as leader - they'd been in worse positions - but the polls showing the Conservative and Labour parties level under Heseltine and later Major.
The election became about her and the realisation among MPs in marginal seats they would lose with her and win without her and when it comes down to it self-preservation will trump loyalty any day and every day.0 -
She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.RochdalePioneers said:Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.
If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.
She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.
And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.0 -
I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.
https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/9586421267656007680 -
...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.Stark_Dawning said:Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.
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Is this deliberate? Trying to draw out a challenge?
"Oh, there is talk of a leadership challenge and I'm about to go to the other side of the road? Now would be a good time to make clear I'm here for the long haul, then!"0 -
There was in 1990 but the then Conservative Party Chairman Kenneth Baker used an adroit piece of spin to show how well the Conservatives had done based on some early and decent results in London (Brent went from Labour to NOC and the Conservatives gained Hillingdon) which masked some more disappointing results elsewhere.IanB2 said:
Which is why there is a risk point this May.
The Conservatives also benefitted from a poor LD result - in fact, the Conservatives lost 225 seats, the LDs 75 and Labour gained 300,
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Hmm, pleased I’m not one of their shareholders. When the company has so many forward contracts for income and expenditure - stretching in some cases many decades into the future - it’s not too difficult for a good team of accountants come up with almost any numbers they fancy for the annual report with subtle alterations of their model.Pulpstar said:
Page 109 of the balance sheet:Sandpit said:
Ouch. What chance they got in a few low-bidding wars with Carillion over the past few years?Yorkcity said:
https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.Pulpstar said:Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...
http://investors.capita.com/~/media/Files/C/Capita-IR-V2/documents/capita-annual-report-2016.pdf
2.7 billion of "intangible assets".
Also this is a great line in page 110 of the accounts:
The relative size of the Group’s intangible assets, excluding goodwill, makes the judgements surrounding the estimated useful lives material to the Group’s financial position and performance ^_~0 -
Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.stodge said:
There was in 1990 but the then Conservative Party Chairman Kenneth Baker used an adroit piece of spin to show how well the Conservatives had done based on some early and decent results in London (Brent went from Labour to NOC and the Conservatives gained Hillingdon) which masked some more disappointing results elsewhere.IanB2 said:
Which is why there is a risk point this May.
The Conservatives also benefitted from a poor LD result - in fact, the Conservatives lost 225 seats, the LDs 75 and Labour gained 300,
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.0 -
I deal with multi-year contracts in my day job. A common method, and the one we used (It is used alot in construction I understand) is to use the cost of the contract so far multiplied by the sales/total expected cost ratio.Sandpit said:
Hmm, pleased I’m not one of their shareholders. When the company has so many forward contracts for income and expenditure - stretching in some cases many decades into the future - it’s not too difficult for a good team of accountants come up with almost any numbers they fancy for the annual report with subtle alterations of their model.Pulpstar said:
Page 109 of the balance sheet:Sandpit said:
Ouch. What chance they got in a few low-bidding wars with Carillion over the past few years?Yorkcity said:
https://www.ft.com/content/dc010d3c-065c-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5 Capita shares drop 35% after profit warning.Pulpstar said:Profits warning for Crapita I see. Wonder how big the pension deficit in that one will be when it fails...
http://investors.capita.com/~/media/Files/C/Capita-IR-V2/documents/capita-annual-report-2016.pdf
2.7 billion of "intangible assets".
Also this is a great line in page 110 of the accounts:
The relative size of the Group’s intangible assets, excluding goodwill, makes the judgements surrounding the estimated useful lives material to the Group’s financial position and performance ^_~
However our accounts don't have 5+* the net total company equity in "intangibles" atop the balance sheet 0 -
I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.rottenborough said:
...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.Stark_Dawning said:Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.
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Mr. Dawning, sounds like you want the Patrick Party
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Another great blog by Michael Smithson – with the slight exception of this part: "There was what in hindsight was her disastrous decision not to participate in a TV debate with Jeremy Corbyn allowing Amber Rudd to stand in for her."
No hindsight was necessary – it was clearly a disastrous decision at the time.0 -
Somewhat misleading as the study relates to the US. We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers, so perhaps the reverse is true on this side of the Atlantic.OldKingCole said:
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!0 -
Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ
Has Corbyn actually done this?0 -
Nigelb said:
It's a load of hot air.0 -
Doubtful. When in the US it isn't hard to spot that the average waistline is somewhat narrower in Chicago or New York City than in Alabama or West Virginia.Anazina said:
Somewhat misleading as the study relates to the US. We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers, so perhaps the reverse is true on this side of the Atlantic.OldKingCole said:
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!0 -
Of course, if Momentum hadn't just canned 6,500 houses being built in Haringey.....Razedabode said:Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ
Has Corbyn actually done this?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42870086
Bloody NIMBY's.0 -
The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.CarlottaVance said:
More data you won't have an answer to:TheScreamingEagles said:CarlottaVance said:
So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?TheScreamingEagles said:A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election
More sloppy reporting.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958446561633161217
So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.0 -
Actually very true. The survey seems to be complete garbage.HHemmelig said:
Doubtful. When in the US it isn't hard to spot that the average waistline is somewhat narrower in Chicago or New York City than in Alabama or West Virginia.Anazina said:
Somewhat misleading as the study relates to the US. We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers, so perhaps the reverse is true on this side of the Atlantic.OldKingCole said:
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!0 -
You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.HHemmelig said:
She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.RochdalePioneers said:Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.
If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.
She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.
And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.0 -
I should imagine that Ruth will prove far too liberal and europhile for the rump reactionaries that still support the modern-day incarnation of a once great party.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.rottenborough said:
...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.Stark_Dawning said:Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.
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How did that work out for Labour?Stark_Dawning said:remember PODWAS?
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To be fair it seems like a much wider groundswell than just Momentum was responsible for canning it. For example the Tory columnist Peter Oborne was scathing about the development on Question Time last week.MarqueeMark said:
Of course, if Momentum hadn't just canned 6,500 houses being built in Haringey.....Razedabode said:Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ
Has Corbyn actually done this?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42870086
Bloody NIMBY's.0 -
Another one who responds to data with ad hom......how unoriginal......Anazina said:
The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.CarlottaVance said:
More data you won't have an answer to:TheScreamingEagles said:CarlottaVance said:
So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?TheScreamingEagles said:A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election
More sloppy reporting.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958446561633161217
So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'.0 -
Citation required.Anazina said:
We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainersOldKingCole said:
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!0 -
https://twitter.com/oflynnmep/status/958619972707680256Anazina said:
I should imagine that Ruth will prove far too liberal and europhile for the rump reactionaries that still support the modern-day incarnation of a once great party.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.rottenborough said:
...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.Stark_Dawning said:Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.
0 -
UK politics is entirely "We're always at war with Eastasia".Anazina said:
The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.
0 -
I can't stand Andrea Leadsom (and have a lot of sympathy for May), but she was dead right on that point. May's inability to empathise with the younger half of the electorate is a major cause of the mess she finds herself in.rottenborough said:
You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.HHemmelig said:
She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.RochdalePioneers said:Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.
If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.
She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.
And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.0 -
I think you'll find sectarianism and racism are inextricably linked in certain areas of West and Central Scotland. There aint no BAME in WATP.TheScreamingEagles said:I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.
https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/9586421267656007680 -
As usual misreported by MSM and those who wanted to force it through.HHemmelig said:
To be fair it seems like a much wider groundswell than just Momentum was responsible for canning it. For example the Tory columnist Peter Oborne was scathing about the development on Question Time last week.MarqueeMark said:
Of course, if Momentum hadn't just canned 6,500 houses being built in Haringey.....Razedabode said:Jeremy Corbyn announces Labour will buy every homeless person in the country a house https://t.co/w9TqsBzDiJ
Has Corbyn actually done this?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-42870086
Bloody NIMBY's.
Nice to see PB Tories like Marquee still believe in Carillion style deals
Wonder how many of the 6500 would be "affordable£ let alone affordable.0 -
Ruth's done a marvellous job getting the bigots and racists on board in Scotland, she may be able to pull off a similar trick with the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists down south.Anazina said:
I should imagine that Ruth will prove far too liberal and europhile for the rump reactionaries that still support the modern-day incarnation of a once great party.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm undecided about Ruth. The problem with political messiahs is that they can never live up to expectations. And when they fail to live up to expectations their opponents scent blood and their supporters start to panic. Even the mighty Dave saw the Tories get the collywobbles when he exhibited a couple of human flaws early on (remember PODWAS?). Better to go with someone low key who can pleasantly surprise.rottenborough said:
...and be elected leader before Ruth is given a safe English seat in a snap by-election.Stark_Dawning said:Boris must be getting nervous. All his attempts to undermine and humiliate Theresa and bully her out of the leadership have come to nought. If Theresa fights the next election then only two outcomes are possible: she wins against Jezza and so Boris is finished; Jezza becomes PM and the appalled Tories turn on the old guard and so Boris is finished. It's now or never for Boris. He has to strike.
0 -
Let me google that for you.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.Anazina said:
We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainersOldKingCole said:
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/0 -
I'm still chortling from the other day when you bridled at my calling you 'names' then went on to brand europhiles 'remaniacs' in your very next post.CarlottaVance said:
Another one who responds to data with ad hom......how unoriginal......Anazina said:
The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.CarlottaVance said:
More data you won't have an answer to:TheScreamingEagles said:CarlottaVance said:
So 100% of Tory voters at the GE were voting for May, not the Tories or their MP?TheScreamingEagles said:A poll published yesterday suggested that Mrs May has lost the support of three in ten voters who voted for her at the general election
More sloppy reporting.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/958446561633161217
So 63% of Tory voters voted for them because they had the best leader (slightly ahead of Cameron) - and 69% of them want May to stay as leader. Hardly backs up the Times assertion that 'a third of Tory voters have deserted May'. 0 -
Trump is considering making US 5G network a public build, partly for security reasons apparently.CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:
After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.0 -
What governmental organisation ever accepts computers from a foreign power, especially China or Russia? Sadly not too difficult to have predicted that outcome.CarlottaVance said:
After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yes. It never gained any traction. Nevertheless, the Tories were in a blind panic at the time, convinced, albeit momentarily, that they'd bought a dud. Thankfully Dave's supreme political skills soon became obvious for all to see and nerves were settled.MarqueeMark said:
How did that work out for Labour?Stark_Dawning said:remember PODWAS?
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Indeed I doubt there is much the way of open-mindedness from this chapTheuniondivvie said:
I think you'll find sectarianism and racism are inextricably linked in certain areas of West and Central Scotland. There aint no BAME in WATP.TheScreamingEagles said:I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.
https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/958642126765600768
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmGjiokfQ2A0 -
Interesting graphic from Reuters on Brexit & Fisheries:
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/BRITAIN-EU-FISHING/010060PQ194/index.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social0 -
Perhaps you should read it?Anazina said:
Let me google that for you.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.Anazina said:
We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainersOldKingCole said:
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
It would be naive to think that body-weight determines voting preferences.0 -
I would hesitate to generalise from the examples of May & Heath, two rather unusual individuals.HHemmelig said:
I can't stand Andrea Leadsom (and have a lot of sympathy for May), but she was dead right on that point. May's inability to empathise with the younger half of the electorate is a major cause of the mess she finds herself in.rottenborough said:
You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.HHemmelig said:
She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.RochdalePioneers said:Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.
If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.
She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.
And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
Emmanuel Macron has no children (though I suppose he acquired 3 step children from the wreckage of Brigitte's earlier marriage). Macron seems to have no difficulty empathising (whether it is largely simulated, or not is another matter).
Like you, I have some sympathy for 'Calamity May', though probably not to the extent of actually voting for her.
One of my relatives is (unwillingly) childless, and it has affected her deeply. I would not be too surprised if May's unwilling childlessness has had a substantial effect on her character.
0 -
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You are mistaking UK politics as a whole with the obsequious Tory party fanatics regularly sighted on this forum.YBarddCwsc said:
UK politics is entirely "We're always at war with Eastasia".Anazina said:
The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.0 -
She was half right. Her point about May was perhaps accurate, though not necessarily for the right reasons; her assertion that she herself was in touch is a good deal more debatable.HHemmelig said:
I can't stand Andrea Leadsom (and have a lot of sympathy for May), but she was dead right on that point. May's inability to empathise with the younger half of the electorate is a major cause of the mess she finds herself in.rottenborough said:
You are Andrea Leadsom and I claim my £5.HHemmelig said:
She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.RochdalePioneers said:Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.
If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.
She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.
And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.0 -
I wrote: We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainers.CarlottaVance said:
Perhaps you should read it?Anazina said:
Let me google that for you.CarlottaVance said:
Citation required.Anazina said:
We do know from surveys here that brexiteers are much more likely to be overweight than remainersOldKingCole said:
Takes me back to 50's/60's when it was reckoned the prettiest girls were in the Young Conservatives. Many a young man of my acquaintance joined for that reason.rkrkrk said:Good news for the pb.com tories:
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2018/jan/31/hunky-tory-attractive-people-more-likely-to-be-rightwing-study-finds
Situation changed later when the Young Liberals became fashionable. Don't think the Labour League of Youth ever tood much of a chance.
Preferred the Students Union myself!
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/30/the-weight-of-brexit-leave-vote-is-higher-in-areas-of-higher-obesity/
It would be naive to think that body-weight determines voting preferences.
That is true.
It is you that should try reading.
0 -
Looks like a nice building to be honest. Might be a better procurement model than subbing out to Carillion or Capita to just get the chinese in then bug comb and replace the electricsSandpit said:
What governmental organisation ever accepts computers from a foreign power, especially China or Russia? Sadly not too difficult to have predicted that outcome.CarlottaVance said:
After the Chinese effort was exposed, the AU acquired its own servers and declined China’s offer to configure them.TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
Really ? Look at University tuition fees -- all 3 parties opposed them in opposition. When they were in Government, all 3 enthusiastically adopted them.Anazina said:
You are mistaking UK politics as a whole with the obsequious Tory party fanatics regularly sighted on this forum.YBarddCwsc said:
UK politics is entirely "We're always at war with Eastasia".Anazina said:
The day after Theresa May is removed, Carlotta will never have been at war with Eastasia, and will have always been an enthusiastic champion of her deposition, and a robust supporter of her successor.
All three parties proposed taxes on the property wealth of the elderly (the Mansion Tax from the LibDems, The Death Tax from Labour, the Dementia Tax from the Tories). And all three parties attacked the principle of taxing property wealth of the elderly when the other lot proposed it.
Truly, we're always at war with Eastasia.0 -
Very interesting. Sounds like the current system is perfect for such an intertwined, co-dependent system as fishing national and international waters.CarlottaVance said:Interesting graphic from Reuters on Brexit & Fisheries:
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/BRITAIN-EU-FISHING/010060PQ194/index.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?0 -
It's Boris versus Hunt then.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Ruth will take whatever position on Brexit her audience wants to hear.HHemmelig said:
She is shallow, Scottish and a more devout Remainer than May.RochdalePioneers said:Davidson should have run in 2017 - her team had details maps of which seats to target, so she could and should have baggsied a good one.
If someone does fancy an Ermine coat to step aside for her, it becomes the solution for the Tory Party. She isn't mad like Boris. She isn't grey like Rudd or Cnut. She has some good old fashioned umph about her whilst still being clearly connected with the 21st century unlike most of the Tory MPs.
She'd win them the election. Which is why they won't go for her. The party has gone mad, and mad people elect mad people.
And aside from those three handicaps, remember that the only two Prime Ministers of modern times who haven't conformed to the "married with kids" stereotype have been amongst the least successful in office (Heath and May). That's no coincidence IMO as it makes it much harder for them to empathise with the lives of the average man and woman in the street.
Stand her next to some fishermen from Fraserburgh and you'll never hear a more fervent hard Brexiter than Ruth.0 -
There's an awesome building in Ginza called the Nakagin Capsule Tower made of pre-fabricated capsules. It was built in the 70s and the residents recently tried knock the whole thing down and rebuild because the capsules were old and outdated, much to the annoyance of the architect who said you should just replace the capsules, that's the whole point. Ultimately it was miraculously saved when the company that was supposed to knock it down and replace it will something boring went bankrupt in the nick of time.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't heard of this before:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/greystar-buys-modular-apartment-development-in-london-1517353051?mod=e2tw0 -
The vast bulk of our Cod doesn't come from the EU......I'm sure Gove will come up with something 'interesting'.........TOPPING said:
What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?CarlottaVance said:Interesting graphic from Reuters on Brexit & Fisheries:
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/BRITAIN-EU-FISHING/010060PQ194/index.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social0 -
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Completely off-topic, but how about a Biden-Kennedy double ticket?
Removes the age worry thing and lines Kennedy to be POTUS after a Biden single term.0 -
Thanks for that. Fascinating.edmundintokyo said:
There's an awesome building in Ginza called the Nakagin Capsule Tower made of pre-fabricated capsules. It was built in the 70s and the residents recently tried knock the whole thing down and rebuild because the capsules were old and outdated, much to the annoyance of the architect who said you should just replace the capsules, that's the whole point. Ultimately it was miraculously saved when the company that was supposed to knock it down and replace it will something boring went bankrupt in the nick of time.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't heard of this before:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/greystar-buys-modular-apartment-development-in-london-1517353051?mod=e2tw0 -
The Democrats would win with that ticket I suspect, but whether it'll happen or not, who knows. Probably notrottenborough said:Completely off-topic, but how about a Biden-Kennedy double ticket?
Removes the age worry thing and lines Kennedy to be POTUS after a Biden single term. 0 -
I remember seeing that decades ago (Tomorrow's World?) - great to see its surviving. Thanks for sharing.edmundintokyo said:
There's an awesome building in Ginza called the Nakagin Capsule Tower made of pre-fabricated capsules. It was built in the 70s and the residents recently tried knock the whole thing down and rebuild because the capsules were old and outdated, much to the annoyance of the architect who said you should just replace the capsules, that's the whole point. Ultimately it was miraculously saved when the company that was supposed to knock it down and replace it will something boring went bankrupt in the nick of time.CarlottaVance said:Hadn't heard of this before:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/greystar-buys-modular-apartment-development-in-london-1517353051?mod=e2tw0 -
Certainly would be a ticket that doesn't ignore the Rust Belt.Pulpstar said:
The Democrats would win with that ticket I suspect, but whether it'll happen or not, who knows. Probably notrottenborough said:Completely off-topic, but how about a Biden-Kennedy double ticket?
Removes the age worry thing and lines Kennedy to be POTUS after a Biden single term.0 -
Yes, that is exactly what the article says. It's complicated! I don't see how us seceding from the CFP will help us in particular.CarlottaVance said:
The vast bulk of our Cod doesn't come from the EU......I'm sure Gove will come up with something 'interesting'.........TOPPING said:
What exactly did Brexiters want again from this? That we should stop eating imported cod?CarlottaVance said:Interesting graphic from Reuters on Brexit & Fisheries:
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/BRITAIN-EU-FISHING/010060PQ194/index.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social
Any fishermen out there? To spell it out?0 -
Panda Bonds-haven't got a clue what they are but after TMay's visit to China,there'll be lots more of them so they must be a jolly good thing and Pandas are so cuddly.
Could Panda Bonds be her saviour?Could Panda Bonds be the rabbit that she produces from the hat?Can everyone have one?
0 -
The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/9586451689193635840 -
Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:
https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer0 -
He was open to debate and asked for opposing reasons. So not so much closed minded as a strong debater.Anazina said:
Indeed I doubt there is much the way of open-mindedness from this chapTheuniondivvie said:
I think you'll find sectarianism and racism are inextricably linked in certain areas of West and Central Scotland. There aint no BAME in WATP.TheScreamingEagles said:I’d always assumed Scots couldn’t be racist because they are too busy engaging in sectarianism.
https://twitter.com/PD_Politics/status/958642126765600768
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmGjiokfQ2A0 -
Mr. Glenn, negative, that's a Miliware viral infection, that leads politicians to speak of British Dreams and wanting to cap/freeze/dictate commodity prices.
If she starts promising free owls, then it's time for a replacement.0 -
May dressing in Chinese colours - clever. Cameron never did that.williamglenn said:The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/9586451689193635840 -
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.CarlottaVance said:Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:
https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer0 -
I noticed that too...bit more difficult for a chap - a red tie would do it - but he stuck with purple & blue - and of course the benches opposite him are awash with red ties.....David_Evershed said:
May dressing in Chinese colours - clever. Cameron never did that.williamglenn said:The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/9586451689193635840 -
Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......David_Evershed said:
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.CarlottaVance said:Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:
https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer0 -
Miss Vance, he could've worn a red cummerbund.0
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A few of us have been saying on here for months that we expect her to lead the Tories into the next GE... Partly that's because, as her words and actions show, she is no quitter; but mainly because, terrible though she is, there is no one better who could take over.0
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I have a red suit, shoes, and tie.CarlottaVance said:
I noticed that too...bit more difficult for a chap - a red tie would do it - but he stuck with purple & blue - and of course the benches opposite him are awash with red ties.....David_Evershed said:
May dressing in Chinese colours - clever. Cameron never did that.williamglenn said:The Maybot has been rolled back to version 1.1, codenamed the British dream.
https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/958645168919363584
Dave needs to start shopping at Selfridges&Co0 -
On Xi Jinping's State Visit Mrs May cut a dash in red then too:Morris_Dancer said:Miss Vance, he could've worn a red cummerbund.
https://www.dawn.com/news/12144600 -
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Then they have lost imho.Benpointer said:A few of us have been saying on here for months that we expect her to lead the Tories into the next GE... Partly that's because, as her words and actions show, she is no quitter; but mainly because, terrible though she is, there is no one better who could take over.
Can you imagine the campaign, the leaders debates etc etc?0 -
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.HHemmelig said:Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
http://www.onlondon.co.uk/drama-in-labour-newham-mayoral-candidate-selection-as-robin-wales-urges-open-selection/0 -
That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.CarlottaVance said:
Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......David_Evershed said:
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.CarlottaVance said:Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:
https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer
Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.0 -
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@PickardJE: The quote of the day is from Lord Bridges, former DEXEU minister:
"The prime minister must make choices. Keeping every option open is no longer an option".
@PickardJE: also I missed this corker from Bridges: "The years of Brexit are like dog years - each one feels like seven."0 -
Lidington’s debut at PMQs.0
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A few weeks ago I tipped David Lidington as next PM and today he's doing PMQs.
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It would be very good I think, for democracy, to see the end of this particularly powerful but unelected figure.Sandpit said:
That’s not a good look, the CS taking advantage of the gap over the holidays between Damian Green’s resignation and David Lidington’s appointment, to run with their own agenda.CarlottaVance said:
Apparently it was cross-departmental without Ministerial sign off....so looks like a Civil Service initiative.....the leaking designed to bounce the Cabinet into BINO......David_Evershed said:
Suely it will be Hammond and the same Treasury civil servants that got the short term forecasts wrong before the referendum.CarlottaVance said:Guido (I know, I know) reckons Heywood may behind the Brexit Project Fear 2 leak:
https://order-order.com/2018/01/31/10-questions-for-heywood-to-answer
Heywood could be in trouble here. Could be.0 -
Who is this 'Justice Minister'? If he was a Remainer from the outset then he should never have been allowed a ministerial position. If he's a Leaver getting cold feet, then he should just bugger of to the Lib Dems with rest of his kind!williamglenn said:0 -
I dont think May will lead the Tories into the next election in 2022, but she has no choice but to say that she will. If she admitted -as Blair did in 2006-that she would go before the election, then the next few years would be nothing but speculation and plots about who would take over -even worse than now.
The aging Elizabeth I always refused to name her successor saying that if she did people would follow the "rising sun" and neglect the "setting sun".0 -
Good start by Emily T but a strange subject to lead on
Great repost by David Lidington0 -
In London, given how the Jewish vote in Barnet hates Corbyn while they merely lacked enthusiasm for Ed Miliband, it is possible the only council the Tories lose in London is Kingston but they gain Havering through winning former UKIP seats meaning no net losses for the Tories and no net gains for Labour.stodge said:
London is going to be fascinating this May. The Conservatives might scrape through with minimal losses but it will be hard for them to retain Barnet and possibly Kingston. Richmond and Hillingdon are up for grabs and while I'm told the likes of Wandsworth and Westminster are safe I could envisage the Tory majorities in both Boroughs being significantly reduced.HHemmelig said:Wandsworth and Westminster were the key Tory successes trumpeted by Baker in May 1990. The Tories also gained Ealing and did very well in some loony left heartlands, notably Lambeth, where (yes it seems absolutely unbelievable today) they won a majority of wards in Streatham.
I expect May 2018 will be a mirror image of 1990, with the Tories doing terribly in London but mostly holding up OK elsewhere. Though for reasons HYUFD has often bored us with, a big swing in London might still not lose the Tories all that many councils. For that reason I'm not convinced the coming local elections will be all that damaging for May.
One of the more interesting contests will be in Havering where the Conservatives are the largest party but supported by the "East Havering Residents" against another group of Residents, UKIP and a few others. 7 of the 12 UKIP Councillors in London are in Havering so if those seats fall where will they go ?
In my Borough, Newham, some unexpected drama in the Mayoralty contest:
http://www.onlondon.co.uk/drama-in-labour-newham-mayoral-candidate-selection-as-robin-wales-urges-open-selection/
Indeed with the LDs having done so abysmally in 2014 if they gain Kingston and maybe Richmond plus a few Hone Counties seats and councils in opposition to Tory councils local plans for development it could be the yellows who finally have most to celebrate in May. Given Ed Miliband won the 2014 Local Elections by 2% over the Tories Corbyn is starting from a relatively high base in comparison to the general election and any further Labour gains from the Tories will likely be offset by Tory gains from UKIP given UKIP got 17% in 20140
