politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll boost for TMay as she struggles to hang on at Number 10
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Poll boost for TMay as she struggles to hang on at Number 10
With much of the talk at Westminster being over whether there will be a confidence vote on TMay’s leadership there’s some encouragement for her in a YouGov poll.
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We already have a free trade arrangement for nearly half our exports. You are about to dismantle that and try to recreate it from scratch.
That, I'm afraid, is bonkers. By all means go the sovereignty* route, but don't be an idiot on the likely economic outcome of leaving the EU.
*we always were, obvs.
IE not the EU.
Eurotrak - Government approval (net):
GB: -33
DE: -51
FR: -31
DK: -23
Swe: -46
Fin: -41
Nw: ±0
So Mrs May aint doing that bad on that measure either vs 'the world's darling' Macron, or Mutti.....
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/28wjbaqogx/Eurotrack_January2018_w.pdf
And certainly in my anecdotal experience canvassing, although the shine on May certainly dulled as the campaign went on, there will still SOME voters in the last few days who said they preferred Labour's policies to Tory policies, but would vote Tory anyway because they liked and trusted May. Is it democratically justifiable for the entire basis of their votes to be disregarded?
These estimates match the long term Treasury projections that have held up so far (early days) and third party analysis. They are all working off the same data. Saying you shouldn't believe any forecast because they are not always right is ignorant and damaging if it gets in the way of informed decision making.
My personal view is that the projections are best case for each of the scenarios. In practice there will be uncertainty and disruption that adds to these costs. My most likely outcome of EEA equivalent would only be a 2% GDP cost if the government was working systematically to that goal from June 2016, coordinating with the EU all the way. The delays, arguments and diversions to WTO and Canada+ would add significantly to that cost. It probably would end up more costly than the best case FTA, predicted to be 5%. A reversion to WTO is likely to be chaotic and and a lot more costly than the modelled 8%
Against that, I do expect the pols to aim to mitigate Brexit. The purpose of this report isn't to convince people to stay in the EU. It is to make politicians aware that their Brexit choices have consequences and provide data to inform those choices.
My central prediction within a wide band of likely outcomes is that Brexit will have a medium term cost in the high single digits %GDP. It's a real cost in jobs and welfare - it would be the equivalent of most of the healthcare budget for instance - but if people think it's a cost worth paying...
The EU 27 (excluding UK) make up just under 18.5% of GDP and falling annually. The EU is where money was once upon a time.
We'd be crazy not to make some form of trade deal with Europe but the real opportunities are in the rest of the world not our ageing continent. Once free from Europe, so the free trade Brexit theory goes, we have a big wide world to trade with.
https://twitter.com/MarcusFysh/status/745349996011192321
Off topic, here is a petition for freedom of movement with Canada, Australia and New Zealand. I've heard many worse ideas.
https://www.change.org/p/parliaments-of-canada-australia-new-zealand-and-the-united-kingdom-advocate-and-introduce-legislation-promoting-the-free-movement-of-citizens-between-canada-australia-new-zealand-and-the-united-kingdom?recruiter=415220298&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=autopublish&utm_term=autopublish&utm_content=nafta_fb_canonical_share_3:control
I did meet Kinnock once and have never forgotten the conversation.It was back in late September 1974 in the course of the October election held that year. I was living in Pembrokeshire and about to return for my second year at university.He had come down to campaign for the local Labour candidate in what was a key marginal seat, and I spent the morning doorknocking with him and a group of party workers.At lunchtime, we retired to the party HQ and I sat chatting to him over a pint. I always remember him looking me straight in the eye as he smoked away on his pipe. He asked me about my career plans, and following my reply - to the effect that I was uncertain - he said to me 'Go to the Bar Boy! That is where the money is!' I was surprised to hear this from someone who at the time was seen as a firebrand of the Left - and in the light of what happened to him subsequently it has always made me wonder as to what really 'drives' him. I doubt that Benn- Skinner - or indeed Corbyn - would have spoken in those terms.
They can guess - but it will be a guess.
If Treasury forecasters were so accurate perhaps we wouldn't be £2 trillion in debt and would have closed the deficit by now? People don't trust forecasters anymore - because recent history has taught them Mystic Meg could provide more accurate data than many of them.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), well, quite. Whatever the economic outcome, it'll be indicative of woe, woe, and thrice woe.
I doubt they go sunbathing in January in Bournemouth, mind.
Perish the thought that people of any background actually do what Labour says is their raison d'etre and makes a success of themselves.
Instant class traitor/capitalist running dog.
There has been pressure on a new PM (not that any of them acted on it) since as long as I can recall, when they take office mid term to call an election. On YouTube somewhere is the news item when Thatcher resigned. Second item was Kinnock and Mandelson walking down the street with Kinnock demanding an election.
Do you trust everything in the ladbible too?
I’ve always thought that somewhere like India would be a good starting point for a trade deal, they have high tariffs on imports of things like cars, and are increasingly making more hi-tech things themselves which they’d like to export to us. We need to use the early trade deals for a competitive advantage over the EU, so if we can make Jaguar cars noticeable cheaper in India than Mercedes cars that will be to our benefit. The Indian shareholders at JLR will be happy too. As a bonus, we’ll even send them Vijay Malliya for free, India have been trying to get him deported from London for years.
You seem to be in a paranoid minority of one.
https://twitter.com/baddiel/status/958341240138891264
https://twitter.com/MichelleMone/status/958344791804334080
Leavers seem to think that FTAs are a silver bullet and suddenly we'll be exporting champions. Germany exports much more than us because it has better products and better export sales capability. We need to focus on improving our exporting capabilities and not rely on FTAs to solve the problem. It won't. Average tariffs are typically single digit so a free trade deal (i.e. tariff free) gives less of an advantage than exchange rate movements in a typical year.
New FTAs are a red herring but they are the driving force behind rejecting staying in the Customs Union.
Provide one prediction in economics with the phenomenal accuracy of the prediction of the Lamb shift or the spectrum of fluctuations in the microwave background.
How racist of you to ignore their immigrants and indigenous peoples.
https://www.reuters.com/article/poland-economy-gdp/polands-2017-gdp-growth-of-4-6-pct-fastest-since-2011-idUSL8N1PP32S
The problems seen in the EU was that the migration is all one way and the migrants are entitled to housing benefits and tax credits.
Edit and the biggest problems. India is very protectionist.
Oil and Pharmaceutical companies routinely do thirty year projections because of the long term nature of their investments. The decsion on the EU is long term
The alternative is to guess or follow your prejudice.
I complimented the waitress on the food and the surroundings. "Yes, it is nice in Buda by the castle. But in Pest there are many dirty Roma."
I thought of Meeks in the Land of the Xenophobes, as I withheld my tip.
That said, the Roma population of Hungary is substantial. It's hard to estimate because on censuses etc many Roma who can pass as white will decline to self-identify as Roma. It's maybe 1 in 10.
It's like a KKK rally..
Canada, NZ and Australia are progressive multi cultural societies with which we share common legal systems, a common language, a common head of state, historic cultural and sporting links, common parliamentary systems and strong family ties. When people are asked in the UK where they would like to emigrate too those three countries top the list. Wouldn't it be quite useful to have freedom of movement with nations you might actually want to move to - barely 14000 Brits have moved to Eastern Europe since 2004.
Freedom of movement is only productive if it is two way - it's not much use when as we have it's totally one way with the vast majority of EU members.
Nothing racist about Canzuk - as for Eastern European attitudes no comment! Canzuk won't happen though - half the country would I be on the first plane to Sydney, Vancouver and Auckland!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1275878/Three-quarters-Britons-want-emigrate-Australia-popular-destination.html
Brexiters are able to simultaneously believe that they’ll be better off outside the EU and that all facts are essentially unknowable except as personally divined.
Brexistentialism.
I accept the economic models in the sense that even if they're wrong, they're going to be consistently wrong and therefore of some utility for comparison purposes. I think you'd have to be very Panglossian indeed to cavil that, from an economic perspective, in decreasing order of attractiveness, it goes: EU membership, EEA, FTA, WTO.
But then I've always felt that way; the pre-EUref IFS impact report was very balanced and compared both a range of scenarios and a range of models (from the Chicken Little Credit Suisse to the frankly bonkers 'Economists for Brexit').
Au revoir mes amis, I shall return in the Summer. Look to my return at first light on the fifth day.
Sounds like an excellent lunch was had.
At least they got to see the analysis before Ministers did:
https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/civil-servants-kept-forecasts-from-ministers/
I see a preferential trade deal with a rapidly expanding country of nearly a billion people as a good thing.
The North East economy already underperforms - its GDP per person is just 80pc of the European average. If one takes the overall estimate of a 5pc dent to growth, then all things being equal, the average North Eastener will be poorer than the average Lithuanian come 2030.
Actually that’s a pretty safe tip, as Lithuania is surely growing more quickly than the North East.
Perhaps we’ll be sending Geordies to nanny in Vilnius!
I wonder what the DUPpers make of the impact on Northern Ireland?