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Given the tightness of Mrs. May’s parliamentary position one way that could get Corbyn close to number ten is if LAB could pick up seats off CON in by-elections.
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EDIT: Also, First. I am king of the internet.
FPT (sorry): Nobody is asking anyone to vote on the same question again. The disingenuous comments on those advocating a "Second Referendum" start with calling it a second referendum because it implies all that happens is the same question will be asked again. More accurately, the 2016 Referendum was the Second Referendum following the first in 1975.
The term "Second Referendum" has been jumped on by those desperate for us to leave the EU as some form of subversion of democracy and we've had months on here of people banging on ad nauseam about "defying the will of the people".
What was suggested was a referendum on the outcome of the A50 negotiations and only then IF a treaty had been concluded between the UK Government and the EU.
Sounds reasonable - superficially perhaps but the gaping hole in the argument is what would rejecting the Treaty mean. One interpretation of the A50 process is if the British people rejected the negotiated Treaty the UK would leave the EU without any form of agreement and it would be WTO rules etc. Another is the rejection would send the process back to the beginning and would be an instruction to the Government to continue negotiation until an acceptable Treaty could be produced. Yet another interpretation could be the UK had decided to stop the whole thing and remain in the EU on the terms prevailing on 23/6/16.
None of these contradictory interpretations can be tested and verified - just as people voted LEAVE for a myriad of reasons so rejecting an A50 Treaty could be for many and varied reasons and without knowing what those were the referendum isn't a referendum at all.
So if you don't want to crash out of the EU without an agreement, you have to accept whatever gruel May and Davis dish up.
There is a converse here - let's say we do crash out without an agreement. IF, and it's a big if, that proves to be the economically dislocating event some believe it to be, the argument for seeking to re-join the EU might start to look attractive.
It was only when I got to university, some four years after the event, that someone finally explained to me why Stephen Milligan died with an orange in his mouth.
The clutch of Cameron-inspired Conservatives who became active post 2005 in their 20s and 30s and got elected in 2010 and 2015 will be around for a while as will the new younger Labour MPs of the 2017 intake.
Go back to the 1950s and there seemed to be 15-20 by-elections every year.
I think Labour have way more MPs aged over 70 than the Tories.
Then Peel Holdings - owners of said airport - quietly issue a press release pointing out that although the new mayor said during the campaign that he was in advanced discussions with them about taking back control, in fact no discussions had taken place or would take place as the airport isn't for sale. Not that the Tees Mayor has the legal authority to nationalise a Parmo never mind an airport.
So yes, he wants a Freeport. Presumably to allow the tax free export of Parmo takeaways to non-EU markets. Or in reality he needs to say something - anything - to try and sound like he still exists and has a job that has any meaning.
Mind you. If we get WTO Hard Brexit a Freeport might end up as the least worst option.
Latest Ipsos Mori has them tied on 38 each for “Satisfied” - both easily 10 points ahead of their predecessors’ lows.
Did it take as long as Mrs May?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/29/theresa-may-reject-eu-transition-offer-fight-citizens-rights/
"Theresa May will reject the EU’s proposed deal on the Brexit transition period and go into battle next week over freedom of movement and so-called “rule taking”."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parmo
I wonder if on Italian or Spanish tv they have chefs visiting obscure parts of Britain eulogising about the local street food in the manner Rick Stien does in their countries.
After the Boro Parmo they could try the Hull Pattie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Savoury_pattie
Anyway, back to the political point - these city-region mayors, or whatever they are called, are clearly pointless, imposed against the desires of the local population. Look at the shambles in Yorkshire. They almost make Police & Crime Commissioners look like a good idea.
A peerage or being a board member of a QUANGO might help you quit the Commons.
TBH a Parmo wasn't something I'd ever heard of until I moved here. And even then it doesn't have much reach outside Teesside. But if you want takeaway badness it can't be beaten.
Highest Quality shaped and processed Chicken "Breast". Coated in breadcrumbs. Layer of Bechamel Sauce. Ton of grated cheese on top. Serve floated on a bed of takeaway chips with either a side salad or preferably "creamed cabbage".
A Full Size Parmo is comfortably serves two. A half size is called a "Ladies" Parmo in some places. Like you're not a real man unless you can eat 1,400 calories of chicken and cheese...
It's more like 35 years of credit fueled spending.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/958270067959062528
< 40 20% 14% 17% 31% 21% 18%
40-60 52% 67% 67% 60% 50% 60%
60+ 27% 19% 17% 9% 29% 22%
Age of MPs at 2017 election per : http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7483/CBP-7483.pdf
Since 1979 the number of over 60s and over 70s has been increasing.
As the Tories won with their nationalisation policy, instead the Mayor attacks all of the councils for imposing damaging cuts (driven by their government grant being cut to £zero by his party). The councils are still getting on with trying to coordinate, but instead of dealing with issues that actually matter they have to respond to nonsense like "lets have a Freeport"
As for the Yorkshire one, its a great example of what happens when neighbouring areas disagree. We had the same up here - we've had separate "independence" referenda in Thornaby and Yarm from local blowhard politicians who hate Stockton. Both narrowly voted "yes" on a 20% turnout but disagreed as to what they should do if they had the power to break away from the unitary authority which they don't. So the proposed "Communities of Ingleby Thornaby and Yarm" authority proposed by Thornaby Town Council was rejected out of hand by town councils in Ingleby and Yarm.
Whilst we're on the subject of pointless, Town Councils. Which are Parish councils in a posh frock. Utterly pointless. And I say that as a Thornaby Town Councillor...
Is JRM’s ultimate loyalty to the UK or to Rome?
Apols if this is insulting I don’t know how the whole RC thing works.
Martin Bishop, who got lost near Chequers, the prime minister’s weekend residence in Buckinghamshire, saw Mrs May from a distance and thought she looked like a ‘safe pair of hands’.
But, he confirmed, this proved to be a ‘calamitous miscalculation’.
Bishop said: “I asked her the quickest way to A418 as I was trying to get to Leighton Buzzard and she replied, ‘We are committed to the A418 which we regard as an important partner’.
“I said ‘Yes, but which way do I go?’ to which she said, ‘the government values its relationship with the A418 going forward’.
“I said, ‘but what if I was planning to go forward, right now, towards Leighton Buzzard?’. To which she replied, ‘Philip Hammond’s recent comments about the A418 are not government policy’.”
Bishop added: “At this point I told her to just fuck off. She seemed genuinely surprised.”
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/driver-who-asked-theresa-may-for-directions-wished-he-was-dead-20180129143338
The UK also managed to run trade surpluses for much of the 1980s while the toursim deficit was much smaller then.
If it was Rome he would be Pro-EU.
From 2013.
Tory MP Rees-Mogg: ‘I take my whip from the Roman Catholic Church’
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/02/04/tory-mp-rees-mogg-i-take-my-whip-from-the-roman-catholic-church/amp/
I’m coming to the conclusion that the recent decision to overturn the anti Catholic laws might have been a mistake.
Just imagine the frottaging among Leavers if Sadiq Khan had said he took his whip from Mecca.
I suppose tolerating abortion is a vague analogy.
Skinner (Lab) 1932
Flynn (Lab) 1935
Clwyd (Lab) 1937
Robinson (Lab) 1938
Lab: 4 Con: 0
MPs born in the 1940s:
Clarke (Con) 1940
Cash (Con) 1940
Sheerman (Lab) 1940
Cunningham (Lab) 1941
Hopkins (Lab) 1941
Field (Lab) 1942
Campbell (Lab) 1943
Beckett (Lab) 1943
Gale (Con) 1943
Hodge (Lab) 1944
Bottomley (Con) 1944
Bailey (Lab) 1945
Ellman (Lab) 1945
Crausby (Lab) 1946
Hoey (Lab) 1946
Coffey (Lab) 1946
Beresford (Con) 1946
Barron (Lab) 1946
Godsiff (Lab) 1946
Chope (Con) 1947
Spellar (Lab) 1947
Howarth (Lab) 1947
Sharma (Lab) 1947
Pound (Lab) 1948
Davis (Con) 1948
Dromey (Lab) 1948
Soames (Con) 1948
Corbyn (Lab) 1949
Simpson (Con) 1949
Knight (Con) 1949
Evennett (Con) 1949
Stewart (Con) 1949
Lab: 20 Con: 12
Total born before 1950: Lab: 24, Con: 12
John Biffen.
" He called the results "Black Thursday", said the Conservatives needed to fight the next general election on a "balanced ticket" and that "no one seriously supposes that the Prime Minister would be Prime Minister throughout the entire period of the next Parliament".[6] This alienated him from Thatcher and resulted in his being dropped from the Cabinet after the 1987 General Election. His axing was no surprise, in that Thatcher's press secretary Bernard Ingham had already famously called him a "semi-detached" member of the Cabinet. Thatcher in her memoirs described Biffen's desire for a balanced ticket as "foolish" and "a recipe for paralysis."[7] In the month after his sacking Biffen criticised Thatcher's government as a "Stalinist regime"
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/01/was-jeremy-corbyn-s-youthquake-all-hot-air
The key takeaway is that Labour would benefit electorally if it switched its education spending priorities away from subsidising middle class students and their parents to focusing relentlessly on pre-school and primary. Which, of course, is what Angela Rayner was arguing for before the last election.
Even Imam Mayor Khan in London hasn't got much further than banning bikini posters on the tube.
So, the Treasury analysis was nonsense then, and it’s nonsense now. You just can’t predict something as complicated as the Brexit effect in the economy one year ahead, let alone 15 years.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/01/what-the-bbc-wont-tell-you-about-the-leaked-brexit-forecasts/
Because if equality means anything, it means forcing women to be covered up and making them unemployed if they make a career choice that isn't approved by the Mob...
Child care ranks high in the YouGov 'progressive policies':
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/958275951313522690
Either free trade is good because it increases economic growth or it doesn't. The Tories used to know which side of the argument they stood on.
And presenting them as a notional prize in a sporting event is a disgusting anachronism that can't last much longer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-28570436
And I think 'anti-gay' might be a more accurate description than 'Christian'
Instead of one-man-band vanity campaigns like Houchen's you'd have a joined-up democratic body that would actually be able to deliver on policy rather than just traipse down to London with a begging bowl every couple of months.
Then having Town Councils would make sense because they would be able to act like select committees, holding the regional administration to account.
On that bus example: it was a while ago, but that was basically using the Bible to say homosexuality was wrong, wasn't it? That's quite a difficult one. I do support the right of people to hold such views (even though my own is diametrically opposed to it), and always want to support the right of free speech to the maximum reasonable extent. On the other hand, homosexuality is not a choice, and publicly condemning people over demographics is not something we would tolerate for race or gender (well, except men, obviously, and white people).
On that basis, I'd come down on the side, assuming we're referring to the same instance, of not permitting it to be advertised.
Whilst that's an interesting area for discussion, it is, as I said, utterly irrelevant to the two things I mentioned above.
Labour probably did benefit more from its school funding pledges than tuition fees - I’m convinced by that. But the tuition fees pledge was helpful also.
And we are where we are. For Corbyn to go back on that pledge now would destroy his reputation for honesty. (That’s surely why the Tories propagated that story about writing off student debt).
A future Labour leader could probably get away with just significantly reducing student fees.
Mr. Ace, they're professional models earning good money. Also, F1 drivers receive a bonus if they win a race. That's a financial bonus, they don't get given a woman.
Why you and others want to take away freedom of choice from women because you don't agree with it is beyond me. The idea you empower women by denying them choice and taking work away from them is utter tosh.
Blatant exploitation of women - could easily be replaced by more chaste tailor's dummies.
Scrapping University Tuition Fees Would help Less Well off:
Con: 36
Lab: 46
LibD: 53
The evidence from Scotland (as the money's got to come from somewhere) is that Con voters are right, and Lib Dem voters wrong:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/cysuqg2jxx/InternalResults_180112_PoliciesQ_w.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-25909961
I’ve always thought anti-gay was synonymous with Christian as some Christians keep on telling us.
Everyone, including Junckers and Merkel, are paying a high price for these errors.
I expect us to leave but over time converge back to some close relarionship with the EU, even re-joining but that is not for now
Just like being in Glasgow except with less religious antagonism.
Even more crucial is that 1992-7, Labour won by elections on huge swings. Labour also won by elections 1987-92 under Kinnock on substantial swings. But Labour at that those times had large leads in the opinion polls. Labour now has a tiny lead, smaller than it held even under Miliband and Kinnock. Even if there were by elections, it is doubtful whether Labour could win them.
The opinion pollsters have also adjusted their methodologies to include a large turnout by the young on the presumption there was a youthquake in June 2017. But it now turns out there was no such youthquake. The polling companies may therefore be overestimating Labour's vote.
Whatever an election before 2022 is unlikely. The Tories will have a new leader, be better prepared, a more attractive manifesto, Brexit will be done and dusted, Corbyn will be 73 and it will show, and the Tories will be ruthless in exposing his economic incompetence.
2005, the polls overestimated Labour, 2010 the polls overestimated the Tories. 2015 the polls overestimated Labour, 2017 the polls overestimated the Tories, in 2022...............see the pattern?
https://twitter.com/nickfaith82/status/958283909728555008
I’ve cheated on Apple and bought a chromebook whilst the new MacBook Air comes out.
Islam: Free flying lessons
Overall: +7
Con: +51
Lab: -26
LibD: +11
Remain: -1
Leave: +17
18-24: -11
65+: +30
Comparative figures for May / Boris / Gove / JRM / Hunt / Rudd etc would be more useful, as would the views of Con MPs (which is the only groups that really matters - although of course it's not going to be available or reliable).
If May is toppled, the view in retrospect of the action will depend entirely on how the new leader does.