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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebeller Italia. The next problem coming down the tracks for the EU
The EU is already wrestling with Brexit and with a renaissance of illiberalism in Poland and Hungary challenging its long-held views of European values. What it really doesn’t want is a third front. Italy seems set to disoblige.
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Edit - my own bet is to lay 5 star movement to win most deputies...
I’m hoping given the uncertainties, potential for inefficient vote share and maybe a PD revival - that 1.6 is too short. (Betfair).
Dyor
What I don't understand is why you would elect two chambers using essentially the same system, at the same time. What's the point ?
Australia have the benefit of not having to work out a batting method on a difficult pitch during their innings, England having done the hard work for them.
Excellent from Buttler, though.
England finish 302/6, which didn’t look at all likely when they were 107/4 after 23 overs.
Aus 1.9 on Betfair to chase the runs, value seems to be with the visitors at that price.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/cricket/event/28549146/multi-market?marketIds=1.139124398&marketIds=1.139124400
Are those last two overs enough to turn the game ?
Even allowing for Cummins' horror show, that's seriously good batting by Woakes and Buttler.
Edit - don't forget either that Australia have got to win or lose the series - so they'll be under heavy pressure as well to score fast.
That said: It is for the various Italian tribes to decide. The choices are there and good-luck finding a worthwhile one.
So if their top four don't get the score to 250, game over.
Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. Immigration and the EU/Germany do make for a potentially bitter cocktail in Italian politics.
In unrelated news, after a short hiatus (rights change) my fantastic comedy The Adventures of Sir Edric is back up. Think Blackadder meets Lord of the Rings: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Adventures-Sir-Edric-Thaddeus-White-ebook/dp/B00GCAF2CI/
However, the EU's clear dislike of Catalonia's declaration of independence may have put back that desire for now.
Wouldn't go so far as to say they were different cultures though. There were variations, but not much more than between say, Kent and Yorkshire or Dublin and Kerry or Cardiff and Blaenau Ffestiniog.
Italy is divided but so is the UK, and so is England within itself. No nation is perfectly homogenous.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pursuit-Italy-History-Regions-Peoples/dp/0141043415
Whatever you think of the argument, it's a hugely informative book, which I learned loads from.
They have Finch and Smith. These guys need centuries each. If on of them is out in the next half an hour, game and series is probably pretty much over.
Despite being a founding member Italy has always punched well below its weight in EU affairs. I expect that to continue and the mess/confusion that is Italian politics to continue as well.
Dare I say it but this is looking easy for England.
Just cannot keep that Berlusconi down either.
Italy’s complaint is that its attempts to deal with the humanitarian problem of people dying at sea has resulted in it bearing the brunt of the burden and that the existing EU rules and other international treaties have proved wholly inadequate to dealing with this issue. In this they are probably right. They are also annoyed at the French who have taken steps to stop entry by illegals into France via Ventimiglia, causing problems in that small town - a less publicised version of the same issue faced by France around Calais.
Mantaining the EU’s external borders will continue to be one of the big issues for the EU for the next few years and, therefore, for countries such as Italy.
Fantasy really is worst of all genres. Utterly morally and creatively bankrupt.
Anyway, The Adventures of Sir Edric is very well-rated so do give the reviews a look.
That said, even as it is my favourite genre, the casual attitude to slaughter and autocratic societies beholden to single leader has long been one that would be easy to make very dark. Indeed, some good works do just that openly but exploring the underbelly. But the truth is its hard to make truly complex societies from scratch, so you use archetypes. And delving into actually realistic mundane politics rather than simplistic states is boring - I had to cut 20000 words from a story, centred around political factions arguing constitutional matters, for just such a reason.
It is intesting that most fantasy stories, even those involving societies of millions, have governance and judicial structures more akin to mere tribes.
Fantasy did go down a bit of a dead end with LOTR knock offs IMO. But the likes of Joe Abercrombie, George Martin et al. have brought more realism and rejected a good guy/bad guy dichotomy which I enjoy.
And then you have a genius like Terry Pratchett...
Italy has thrived in spite of its political class not because of it. It has been very pro-EU in part because it saw that institution as infinitely more capable than its homegrown politics. But it has never proved a counter-weight to the Frnco-German alliance and has never really had any ideas of its own. For very many years the Christian Democrats were only really interested in maintaining their power and benefiting in whatever way they could from that power, including obtaining for themselves and their clients the benefits of EU membership, patronage and money.
Clientilismo is at the heart of Italian politics. The strains now are in part because there are less goodies to share around and more demands to be satisfied, including those of migrants/refugees ending up in Italy purely as a result of geography.
https://twitter.com/WalkerMarcus/status/954997370961432577
PS - Congratulations to Morris Dancer for his job at The Times.
Anyway, I have a mighty three manual name with my name on it. Have a good morning.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturgeon's_law
(I tend to put it at 95% ...)
On topic the big problem for Italy is economic. Their growth has been abysmal since the crash. The ECB has really not helped and they are fed up.
England’s to lose now.
I think with fantasy popular consciousness runs some way behind the genres development, in the way I am told until a couple of breakout dark hits like Watchmen and the Dark Knight Returns popular thought considered comics to be more like Adam West's Batman. But I'm not a comic reader so cannot be sure of that.
But modern fantasy is indeed more varied in tome and setting, and morality, than people think. I do find it harder to read something of deliberately simple morality like some David Eddings for how little the heroes care about slaughtering their enemies.
Mr. Eagles, I wish.
Chapeau for the Five Star/Silk and Steel reference.
After Smith they’ve not really got a lot of batting left, Finch was a huge wicket, he was starting to swing it a bit and look quite dangerous.
Farage has spoken to friends, including his financial backer Arron Banks, about forming a breakaway party if Bolton, 54, loses a vote of confidence today at a special meeting of Ukip’s national executive committee.
Banks and Farage met for dinner to discuss the plans on January 11, only a few days after the committee began an investigation into Bolton’s private life.....
....It is understood that an announcement on the new movement, which does not yet have a name, could be made as soon as this week if Ukip loses its fourth leader in 16 months. The organisation is expected to be modelled on the structure of the Conservative Party with local associations around the country to give the movement a reach that Ukip lacks. Focus groups have been convened to determine what kinds of policies will appeal.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nigel-farage-may-launch-new-brexit-party-vmx8573lg
And it's clearly not true. I can think of just one sequence of the books, containing the same characters, which are vastly different. Guards guards, men at arms, feet of clay, jingo, the fifth elephant, night watch, thud. All the same principle cast, but very different in plot.
Meanwhile, another Yorkshireman reaches the Australian Open quarter final...
Have we all got both teams odds-against?
Still, the WEP leader got a spot on the front page with other leaders in one paper, so why not UKIP part 2 being front line straight away I guess.
On names, the obvious joke is to call it en March. Proven success
https://www.termometropolitico.it/1284708_sondaggi-elettorali-19-gennaio.html
Even though Berlusconi's centre right block will likely win most seats as the article suggests Berlusconi is barred from office so I would expect Luigi Di Maio, as Five Star leader and thus leader of the largest party in the lower chamber to become PM with Berlusconi playing kingmaker in the background and pulling many of the strings of the new governmemt
The concept that handouts fuel EU enthusiasm was popped a bit in the UK referendum Wales and Cornwall both of whom received some big funding (esp Cornwall) had some big LEAVE votes, whilst big contributor areas (London for eg) was big REMAIN I think you are being a bit naive
Our last ten overs were 102/0.
Marr's recorded interview with Macron on now.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/955008938998722560
Mr. HYUFD, good, backed Five Star with a small sum to be the largest party.
But whilst there might be some prepared to die in a ditch to rejoin the EU, how many will want to do the same to reopen Brexit - "For A Few Billions More"?
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/01/macron-trump-economics/549944/
I'm like an 18th Century missionary civilising the heathen natives.
ambulance,I will do so with a smile on my face.The Tories really the stupid party.They cannot see they are killing off 3 old Tories for every 1 old Labourite like me.The Tories are killing off their own voters!
Watch out for a Tory down-tick,a considerable one were we to have a bad flu epidemic.
When asked why he said better one of theirs should die than a Loyalist Orangeman!
Just that the campaign message you endorse might have been unfortunately misunderstood....
We'll also have a ridiculous number of compounds, seven in 2018, with the hypersoft and super-hard (ahem) joining the current five dry compounds.
France is back on the calendar and, somewhat worryingly, the US is yet to be confirmed. Murmurings that Vietnam will be added in the near future (don't get excited. It'll probably be a shitty street circuit).
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/technical/2018/1/what-are-the-new-f1-technical-rules-for-2018-.html
Couple of comments. Italy is actually traditionally fed up, despite its cheerful reputation - polls comparing levels of national contentment have usually shown it near the bottom of the developed country lead. That gives fertile ground for snake oil salesmen, a description which Berlusconi arguably fits and 5 Star certainly fits.
5 Star in particular are completely unpredictable - they will adopt whatever policies come into their heads as popular and then drop them again - the Euro referendum idea is a good example. This does mean they are potentially up for deals, but they're unstable partners. Berlusconi, for all his faults, is more attuned to stable government, and a centre-right minority government with some sort of 5 Star deal by a Berlusconi ally looks conceivable.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Sandpit, cheers.