politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP: circling the plughole

SECOND! Like Remain, Corbyn & Yes.....

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

CarlottaVance said:

On topic. While Mr Herdson is right that we see in Europe plenty of evidence of strongly right-wing parties making progress, apart from the UKIP/EU period there is no such tradition in the UK - on either the left or right. Both Labour & the Tories have managed to corral 'broad churches' which has meant the extremes have been inhabited by outright racists such as the BNP, or communists & Socialist Workers (sic). Of course where Momentum's entry into the Labour party leaves us, only time will tell - but (absent periods of delusion) both Labour & the Tories have generally recognised its more important to govern than to enjoy the intellectual purity of opposition.

I think that is almost certainly a function of our electoral system. Proportional representation gives much more power to small single-issue parties, where here they are - with very rare exceptions - almost completely irrelevant. Instead, hunting for such votes causes the big parties to reach out and establish a patchwork of different views so they can appeal as widely as possible.

Ken Clarke is a classic case, of course, but it is worth remembering the first Labour governments included Philip Snowden as well as George Lansbury. Even under Blair you had Cook and Brown in the same cabinet.

Although the leader is a problem, he is not the problem. The problem is that UKIP no longer serves any purpose within the political debate.

They have the 'having your dream come true' problem, which takes away much of their attraction (not just politically, but also the sense of radicalism/embuggerance/rebellion that voting for them used to offer).

Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/954345709616103424

dr_spyn said:

Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/954345709616103424

I think Liam Byrne wrote a short letter that may answer her question.

rkrkrk said:

CarlottaVance said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

I would be surprised. For many voters their raison d'être - Brexit - has been decided and however much we fret over the details if it looks 'more or less' like Brexit I can't see them getting much traction. `Even if they had a functioning organisation.....

If we maintain FOM, or something very like it - and are still sending billions to the EU - I don’t think that will feel like Brexit to former UKIP voters. And it will be the Tories who agreed such a deal.

Many countries have a right wing anti immigrant party/faction getting something like 10% of the vote - I don’t see why Britain should be different.

I would have thought FPTP would limit the appeal of such parties.

The problem is the leader – but could anyone else do better? Perhaps the same could be said of Vince Cable and the Lib Dems?

As for Boles, a shot might be fired, but is anyone actually going to take a risk to remove May. The tweet is noticed, but the thread header applies to the Tories as well.

UKIP is not a right wing party--it is a single issue party.

I joined UKIP in 2003, as there was the smell of an opportunity to leave the EU. It was a small, simple and sensible step. Our members can be proud that they made a significant contribution to freeing the UK from the EU's malign embrace.

Although UKIP would prefer a clean Brexit, nobody is listening to us now. The feeling from our supporters, rather than our members, is that our job is done.

Our most active members have enjoyed their involvement in British politics. They are reluctant to give it up. But there is nowhere for them to go.

david_kendrick1 said:

UKIP is not a right wing party--it is a single issue party.

I joined UKIP in 2003, as there was the smell of an opportunity to leave the EU. It was a small, simple and sensible step. Our members can be proud that they made a significant contribution to freeing the UK from the EU's malign embrace.

Although UKIP would prefer a clean Brexit, nobody is listening to us now. The feeling from our supporters, rather than our members, is that our job is done.

Our most active members have enjoyed their involvement in British politics. They are reluctant to give it up. But there is nowhere for them to go.

Well We shall see if the effect is as you hope, quite frankly the Youth of this nation have been sold up the river.

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

Sandpit said:

dr_spyn said:

Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/954345709616103424

LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.

Though she was born and brought up in Hereford:

https://twitter.com/beccahampstead/status/954146598925340672

RobD said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

I thought the telegraph headline had been debunked?

Lidington is flying a kite in floating the idea at all, even if heavily shrouded that the EU would "have changed".

https://twitter.com/simonmaloy/status/954556957406490624

Good morning, everyone.

I'm growing tired of the constant cold weather. At least it seems to be improving on Monday.

On-topic: there may well be a UKIP resurgence after the deal is done. There's likely to be co-operation/integration at some level, and the more there is the more sting for those who want us completely separate. In addition, with the rising shriek of EU-philia from some, there could be a counter movement (although I think that less likely as a cause for a purple resurrection as those who love the EU are disproportionately represented in the media).

Mr. Palmer, he might wait until we've left the EU before returning to politics. UKIP has baggage now, and was largely seen as a single issue party. Of course, he might prefer the media lifestyle, where you get to pontificate without responsibility for actually doing anything.

Sandpit said:

dr_spyn said:

Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/954345709616103424

LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.

The Tory 'secret plan to privatise the NHS' must be the most overplayed card ever...

My theory however is that the public don't agree - the political party who cried wolf, without the wolf ever appearing.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/simonmaloy/status/954556957406490624

OT is it just me who cannot abide the American "one year anniversary" which is now creeping in over here?

Its rather redundant.

@rcs1000 FPT

The real reason why the UK is preferred by Eastern Europeans is language. English is a transferable skill (and many already have the basics) plus there are already established communities where they can feel at home.

Of course economics are important but it’s not the only thing, especially for the temporary migrants you describe

NickPalmer said:

What do we think Farage will do next? "Quietly eschew the limelight" seems implausible. Might he offer to ride to the rescue of UKIP one more time? Or start a new party? Or is he just going to enjoy being a free-ranging provocative pundit?

When we get a particularly shit variation on BINO then May will give him a peerage as part of a campaign of assuagement and distraction of the Swollen Prostated Philanthropists who voted Leave.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Mortimer said:

Sandpit said:

dr_spyn said:

Good to see Labour Councillor wannabee in Hampstead reaching out to a wider audience in Hereford.

https://twitter.com/LauraPidcockMP/status/954345709616103424

LOL, and the brilliant-as-ever Ms Pidcock drawing attention to the planted member of the audience rather than the issue at hand.

The Tory 'secret plan to privatise the NHS' must be the most overplayed card ever...

My theory however is that the public don't agree - the political party who cried wolf, without the wolf ever appearing.

Mine is the posturing does not matter because patients, their friends and families can all see that the NHS has been getting worse recently.

Has it? Seems pretty much the same as it has always done to me.

Flip the stats on their head and things sound pretty good. Rather than 'loads of people had to wait for more than 4 hours', 90% of people seen and treated within 4 hours and st no charge.

I wish the left would stop doing down our wonderful NHS.

Ishmael_Z said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

I am not a closet kipper, but I think conflating them (as a party, not as individual supporters) with BNP/NF/EDL is wrong. They are different from and a lot funnier than that lot, and the BNP/NF/EDL slot is as far as I know currently occupied by the EDL.

Sure, UKIP stretched its wings beyond the 2-3% happy to vote for hard right racist parties, but now it is contracting to that core vote that has always been there. The interesting thing is not that 3%, but the other 10% or so that used to vote kipper. Most went Tory (though will they return to NOTA or nonvoting?), but part of their vote went to Corbynite Labour. Remember when Con take Bolsover was a meme here?

https://twitter.com/arellanov74/status/954616572961751040

Ishmael_Z said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

I am not a closet kipper, but I think conflating them (as a party, not as individual supporters) with BNP/NF/EDL is wrong. They are different from and a lot funnier than that lot, and the BNP/NF/EDL slot is as far as I know currently occupied by the EDL.

BNP = UKIP for pussies.

It’s getting to a point where I wonder if the US political system, widely admired around the world, has irretrievably broken down. It was never designed for the sort of partisanship we see now. Ironically, they are stuck with it because you need bipartisan support to change the system in the first place. Say what you will about the Westminster system, but if you can’t pass a budget, there’s an election to give somebody the chance to do so.

Alistair said:

A gov shutdown when they control all three branches of government is a special achievement for the Republicans.

Might give Trump more time for golf...

The modern left are mostly about identity politics and virtue signalling.The tories have positioned themselves in these areas.This leaves a huge opportunity for a party on the right to exploit if they can find a leader , a competent. organiser and financial backer.
Anecdotedly UKIP`s organisation has always been well under par and they were over dependent on 1 financial backer.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Twelve, technically, not true any more due to the Fix Term Parliament Idiocy.

Edited extra bit: Fixed*

Yes, true! Another reason to hate it... the biggest disappointment with the 2017 GE result was that it would stay on the statute book. I’m hoping the next government, Labour or Tory, returns to sanity on that front and sees it for what it is. A short-termist, Coalition-inspired bill to keep everyone in line for 5 years.

SouthamObserver said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
https://twitter.com/im_pulse/status/954352266030583809

Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.

Personally, I hope that UKIP disappear never to be heard of again.

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

DecrepitJohnL said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

I thought the telegraph headline had been debunked?

Here is the Telegraph's interview with Lidington, who rules out membership of the customs union and the EU, while raising the possibility of joining a changed customs union or EU.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/19/david-lidington-interview-britain-could-join-customs-union-eu/

And here's the full, unedited transcript:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/954478233214509056

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/954623552120074241

Cyclefree said:

Personally, I hope that UKIP disappear never to be heard of again.

its replacement could be far worse.

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

And online has been modified from the front page:

UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

to:

David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit

Foxy said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

A Senior member of the government discussing rejoining, however dressed up, is news.

Read what he said.

Alistair said:

The SNP must be absolutely delighted their mundane, run of the mill Facebook ad is now front page on various papers including the Scotsman.

Cheapest publicity ever.

I would like to think that the good people of Edinburgh Western might now have sufficient cause to regret their decision, but I fear not.

Miss Vance, that's quite the headline change.

Miss Vance (2), I don't believe Macron. It's like Chirac dangling CAP reform before Blair to get the rebate halved.

Recidivist said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

Rejoining is a pretty high probability. Leaving in a way that makes rejoining easier makes a lot of sense. It's good to know that senior people in government are leaning that way.

Rejoining the Customs Union would be a step in the direction of accession.

To propose that following Brexit, we should modify the deal to have a closer, softer, relationship is indeed a significant kite being flown.

Re-entry will grow as an idea, but it will be a while before it is government policy.

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

He didn’t - he was basically saying that in 20 parliament and the people may choose to discuss the issue and may choose to rejoin the EU (who knows what it will look like but it will almost certainly be different to today)

The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

Agreed. Misleading click bait seems to be the telegraph strategy these days.

Cyclefree said:

SouthamObserver said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
https://twitter.com/im_pulse/status/954352266030583809

Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.

Well it good to hear both sides , we had yours , so we deserve the other.

Mrs May speaking German:

https://twitter.com/tanit/status/954659862067204096

McVey makes first big decision:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42745616

Climbdown put out on a Friday.

Mr. rkrkrk, only got an A-level in it, but her pronunciation was fine (I used to call the EU the 'oi' in German, which annoyed my teacher no end).

CarlottaVance said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

And online has been modified from the front page:

UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

to:

David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit

That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.

Cyclefree said:

SouthamObserver said:

Oh, Jeremy Corbyn ...
https://twitter.com/im_pulse/status/954352266030583809

Ssh. Nick Palmer will be along in a minute to tell you that in a party of 550,000 this is an isolated incident, does not matter and does not tell you anything about the sort of party Labour has become under Corbyn’s leadership.

Wasn’t she the lady that even Owen Jones refused to share a platform with?

Looks like Henry Bolton has lost his spinner.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5289463/Hes-killed-party-Henry-Boltons-aide-quits-Ukip.html

CarlottaVance said:

Recidivist said:

CarlottaVance said:

Charles said:

Foxy said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

rkrkrk said:

For UKIP to return I think we need to see at least one of these two things:
1) continued multi billion pound payments to EU
2) continuation of freedom of movement

Surely we will see both of those things, with perhaps a slight modification to (2) in theory but not in practice: a hurdle so low that anyone can clear it because they come here to work or as refugees. Even most leading Brexiteers are in favour of continued immigration.

Ukip returning to previous levels doesn’t seem that unlikely to me.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. Ukip wore several hats -- anti-immigration, right-wing populism, anti-EU of course, and increasingly NOTA. These are not all the same thing, and during the referendum we saw the official Vote Leave campaign trying to get Nigel Farage to shut up about immigrants because he was alienating middle-class and ethnic minority leavers.

Although Ukip always picked up a handful of MEPs, at Westminster it was almost invisible until David Cameron excluded most backbenchers from his chumocracy and at the same time, the LibDems left the NOTA field. If May can avoid Cameron's mishandling of the party, then a Ukip revival might depend mainly on whether the LibDems maintain their current irrelevance.

UKIP are a dead parrot, but there will always be a couple of percent for a right wing BNP/NF/EDL type party. The hard right is as full of splitters as the hard left, though with even less point.

The more interesting thing is where their voters will go. The lazy assumption in the spring was that they would go Tory, but post Brexit will that breakdown even more next time? A surprising proportion moved straight to Corbynism, it is possible that more will do so.

Interesting that Liddington floated the idea of rejoining btw, albeit dressed in a fig leaf of the EU having changed.

The Telegraph headline was misleading click bait

And online has been modified from the front page:

UK Could Rejoin EU in Future, says May Deputy

to:

David Lidington interview: why Britain could join a customs union with the EU after Brexit

That's hilarious. But the cat is out of the bag now. Rejoining is back on the agenda.

You really should read what he said, not how it was reported......

Will do. But first I have to work on my project to convince a few million people that James Callaghan didn't say 'crisis, what crisis' and Margeret Thatcher's 'there is no such thing as society' was perfectly reasonable in context.

Unless the Tories capitulate in the Brexit talks completely and agree to keep the UK permanently in the single market and leave free movement in place there is little room for UKIP to progress. Indeed May even adopted their support for more grammar schools albeit that has not been pushed after the general election.

Sadly the best route for UKIP to have taken was to elect Anne Marie Waters rather than Henry Bolton at their last leadership election and go full Le Pen, Wilders or Freedom Party or AfD on a hardline anti radical Islam ticket which may have got them some traction in white working class areas especially in the North and Midlands. They may have been the new nasty party but they would not be the new joke party, indeed their predicament is so bad that Henry Bolton's love life appeared as a comic item on the Graham Norton show last night.