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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so to re-shuffle day unless the media’s being very badly m

I can’t remember a reshuffle that has been trailed as long this one. On Saturday David Herdson very rightly set out the reasons why Theresa May should not be holding a reshuffle so soon after the general election.
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IMO she should take on Boris.
If he’s the only one she demotes - what’s he going to do?
Put Steve Baker in at FCO (or some other leaver) to maintain the balance.
Some might argue that Osborne’s subsequent behaviour and his obsessive personal vendetta (the day of the rail fare increases that story was relegated to page 6 of his freesheet while a “May blow” story on local election polling banished it from the front page) vindicates May’s decision.
It certainly hasn’t got “statesmanlike” or “rising above it” written all over it has it?
Osborne patronised and tried (unsuccessfully) to bully May for years. Only one of them is PM.
https://twitter.com/amykinla/status/950217594597879810
Other sensible and mature adults, David Cameron say, accepts their sacking, takes some time out from everything that is politics, writes a memoir and generally keeps himself to himself, eventually taking a job working to improve trade in a developing country.
Only those that have acted like children their whole political career, making nothing but enemies along the way, decide to carry on being spiteful children after their sacking, because it’s all they know how to do.
IMO a hugely talented politician, up there with Cameron as the best of his generation.
I hold no brief for Osborne, who in my view helped poison the well of British politics with his American-style partisanship, as well as being an appalling Chancellor who choked off the economic recovery he inherited, but some of the opprobrium he has faced for editing a newspaper that has dared to question the omniscience of the government shows the sense of entitlement of the right in much the same way as the Brexit quote above.
And it would still not surprise me to learn the over-theatrical dismissal was planned with Osborne himself.
Mrs May should rise above her over sensitivity to feeling patronised (reportedly why she wants to sack Greening, too).
Btw, you did notice my original post was in defence of Osborne (at least as a newspaper editor)?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/red-zone-map-reveals-rapid-spread-of-illness-across-london-and-uk-amid-rising-cases-of-australian-a3734056.html?CMP=ILC-refresh
Osborne would have been better advised to rise above it.
Woman treats man badly for one afternoon - bring on the personal vendetta!
Early news as the PM attempts to emulate the Golden Globes :
In solidarity Mrs May continues her diversity, inclusivity and crack down on unwanted rumpy pumpy as all promoted ministers will walk to the door of 10 Downing Street in a black dress.
One trap the PM might fall into is that describing sideways moves of junior ministers as promotion risks establishing a hierarchy of posts that will prove toxic later.
Of course there is still a frightening amount to do. No real progress was made in reducing the trade deficit, productivity growth (the price of high employment) was shockingly poor, the debt/GDP ratio is still at dangerous levels and investment has not been high enough compared to consumption. The point made downthread by @DecrepitJohnL that his targets were weapons against Labour rather than something he expected to be held to is also well made. But I think given the devastation he inherited he did well.
Reading about Fiona Hill, in particular, in Tim Shipman's book "Fall Out" is shocking.
Osborne was certainly not shy of issuing threats, buying patronage and shutting people out in the cold who defied him when he was Chancellor.
Mrs May and her staff were/are arrogant bullies who liked to humiliate anyone who crosses them.
George Osborne is typical of the behaviour meted out by them not atypical.
I didn't give her the nickname the poundshop Gordon Brown without reason.
They enjoyed sacking the SPADS/party staff on the evening of July 13th of 2016 with such glee. Some struggled to get home as they weren't allowed to retrieve their wallets/phones.
The staff she sacked in July 2016 were asked to join the campaign, they said no, which contributed to the result.
She and her staff regularly humiliated and denigrated David Cameron and his general election winning campaign.
She ignored Cameron for months.
Both Cameron and Sir John Major offered to help the Tories during the election campaign and were told 'No ta, Mrs May wants to own this result on her own, plus we don't need your help'
Her election campaign strategy was based on doing what Dave and George did. How'd that turn out?
Then she begged Dave to help her sell the DUP deal, an irony not lost on Dave.
Ask yourself, why has she exasperated party loyalists like JohnO with her behaviour?
But we are the only developed country where the structural imbalances from before the GFC have been almost entirely uncorrected.
That's no accident: George Osborne recognised the dangers of a negative feedback loop, where falling demand caused job losses, causing the savings rate to rise, and causing more job losses. The policies the government enacted were entirely designed to hold up demand.
But they ignored the fundamental problem the UK had, that consumer spending was already too high as a percentage of GDP, and the savings rate too low. By postponing the inevitable increase in the UK savings rate, the eventual readjustment will be even more painful. Let's put this in context for a second: the cumulative current account deficit for the UK since the GFC is around 30% of GDP.
You know he was helping several Tory MPs during the campaign.
He was devastated by the result, his and Dave's decade long hard work were undone in a few weeks by Mrs May.
He absolutely loathes the policies of Corbyn and wanted Corbyn to getting an absolute gubbing.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/02/good-factories-bad-shoppers-brexit-pattern-emerging
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Interestingly, 93% (!) of Germans rate Merkel as a good Chancellor, and 53% would like her to continue, though 69% are critical over the refugee policy. There's an overview of the various viewpoints here:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/06/angela-merkel-german-coalition-social-democrats-talks
Tell me if you think this guy is devastated, or over the moon about the result?
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZX5phmjAqjY
http://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/21996114/joe-root-taken-hospital-gastroenteritis
https://slate.com/arts/2018/01/did-oprah-just-announce-a-presidential-campaign.html
Let us hope Hunt and Mordaunt get promotions.
For a meme/joke currency it's not doing too badly. It has the potential to increase 100 fold from now, so might be worth a look for anyone who dabbles in crypto.
https://twitter.com/garethicke/status/950093355991601153
Can we have some actual good competent politicians?
Yer having a larf. Nobody outside of the left wing twitter mob gives an Aylesbury duck.
An Oprah Warren ticket is not impossible and would be hugely popular on the coasts and Chicago but is not necessarily what the Democrats need to win back the rustbelt states and the Electoral College where Trump has such a stranglehold in 2016
(And I speak as a man fortunate enough to have gotten out at the top.)
The plan Osborne got elected on was harsh savage cuts to eliminate the deficit fast.
I thought he was a pillock at Culture and was amazed when he was promoted to Health. And what a grand job he has done there. Add to that his cynical U-turn over his Brexit position, you have someone who should be sacked from the cabinet, rather than being made Tezzie's Veep.
I have little time for strikes anyway, but not even bothering to picket is pitiful. Nye Bevan will be turning in his grave.
"This company has no assets, no revenue, and no business plan but will use the accumulated funds actively to seek out opportunities."
He only took the reins of The Standard a month before Election Day and didn’t take proper control until a couple of weeks before Election Day.
Do you think he was wrong when he said in the paper’ editorial attacked the ‘disastrous manifesto’ and says Britain ‘could not have got off to a worse start’ in Brexit process?
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/may/30/osbornes-evening-standard-savages-theresa-mays-election-campaign
He criticised Corbyn & Labour’s policies more and was accused of being a racist for attacking Diane Abbott’s sums. Loughborough Uni analysed the front pages and stories and said The Standard was harsher on Labour/Corbyn.
They endorsed the Tories ‘
Evening Standard comment: Why we believe this country needs a strong Conservative team as the next government’
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-why-we-believe-this-country-needs-a-strong-conservative-team-as-the-next-a3558971.html?amp
You’ll have to trust me when I say he was gutted by the results but like me George is an optimist and when life hands you lemons you should make lemonade.
We thought the result should be used to oust the cancer that was Mrs May and her staff and replace her with someone better like Amber Rudd.
PS - Do you really think The Standard should be the mouth piece of the Tories? I prefer it to call it as it sees it.
Nobody wanted to risk growth, the question was the right balance and the policy difference was a difference in judgement on how to achieve the same outcome. There's no surprise Labour wanted to spend more than the Conservatives and increase the debt/have a higher deficit for longer.
Edited extra bit: and debt interest repayments well exceed the Defence or Education budgets, and are nearly as much as both combined. Slower cuts and we'd now be paying more on servicing the debt than on both those departments.
Has anyone ever quit their job without something to go to? Did it work out?
The paper quoted the Hayward analysis (not sure if even mentioned here) that the Conservatives are likely to lose Barnet and Kingston In May and could be in trouble in a number of their other Boroughs.
The paper's view on Sadiq Khan is far more equivocal and the criticisms far more muted.
Osborne's judgement was closer to being correct, I think.
As for Amber Rudd, I don’t think the electorate is looking for somebody to hector them in a joyless loud voice.
Otoh in recent years I've seen a lot of former colleagues treat redundancy as an excuse for a mid-life gap year world tour.