politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s “I’ll be PM by Xmas next year” boast fails impress pu

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I leave you lot alone for five minutes and an excellent new poster arrives.

Welcome @Anazina.

TOPPING said:

I leave you lot alone for five minutes and an excellent new poster arrives.

Welcome @Anazina.

Thanks

IanB2 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

IanB2 said:

Anazina said:

IanB2 said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Welcome to PB, and a great first post. Yes, our fruit and veg won't pick themselves and, barring a few vending machines, coffee will still need to be made and restaurant meals served. We have everything to lose by taking too rigid a line on movement, not least because Brexit has already made many EU workers feel less than welcome here.

It is a sad state of affairs brought about by a clear minority of the country. That doesn't get said enough. Those who voted Leave are in a minority of the population; those who voted Leave and are opposed to free movement a smaller minority still. I note several Leavers on here actually support free movement.

(I sense that HYUFD will be here very shortly to trot out a Central Office line, probably in a very long sentence without the benefit of punctuation).

And - a factoid often not appreciated - unless some of them change the habit of a lifetime, they are probably a minority of general election voters also.

You confidently make these statements but they are impossible to verify. The next twelve months will define the deal and whether or not we have a successful divorce. If TM does a deal that satisfies most but not the extremes on both sides that will end the debate until or unless a party decides to campaign at a GE to rejoin

Using MORI data (needs must)

% 2016 leavers = 51.9% x GE turnout 67% = 34.8

% 2016 remainers = 48.1% x GE turnout 74% = 35.6

So, all things remaining unchanged, 50.6% of 2017 GE voters were remainers.

Quote selectively if you like but I am not engaging in these assumptions. Wait to see facts

Regarding the misleadingly titled Freedom of Movement, as a Labour Leaver I am against because it is iniquitous. Why should a citizen of the rest of the EU have priority over a citizen of any other country in the world when it comes to living and working in the UK?

Why should a Jamaican nurse be at a disadvantage versus a Spanish nurse? An Indian doctor versus a German doctor?

We have a system at present that prioritises white Europeans over BAME people from the rest of the world. And for some reason 'liberals' are defending the status quo.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

Another harsh policy from Big Tess.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/phineasandferb/images/9/90/Little_Witch_Suzy_trapped_under_a_house.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20110307013818

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

3) Mrs May runs a poor campaign and a 1% swing gains Labour 14 seats and enough to turf the Tories out of office

4) Corbyn heads a rainbow coalition government.

5) I flee to Canada cursing the Brexiteers and Mrs may

Youve forgotten the bit about Mickey Mouse becoming Pope.

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Nigelb said:

kyf_100 said:

Anazina said:

kyf_100 said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Hello and welcome!

Out of interest, what do you find xenophobic about a country having control over who it does or doesn't let live and work there?

I presume you carefully control who you do or don't let into your house, sleep in your bed, rummage through your kitchen cabinets and eat all your crisps...

Thanks for the welcome.

Entering people's property without permission is a crime, as is stealing.

Poor analogy.

Good, so you have a basic concept of boundaries. Well, in 2016, there was this little vote where a lot of people said "actually, we are uncomfortable with anyone and everyone being able to come and go as they choose, because that is deleterious to the fabric of our society".

Just as I am not free to come into your home and start munching your crisps, so too the people of the UK voted in such a way that indicated a preference for allowing invited guests in, rather than the current free-for-all imposed on us by Brussels.

Good analogy.

Explain to me, again, what you find xenophobic about a desire to control one's borders and keep undesirables out?

I guess your neighbours don't visit you very often ?

When people come round, it is generally because they are invited and welcomed guests.

Meanwhile in just the last week the courts ruled it was unlawful under EU rules *even to prevent people from coming here to be homeless and sleep on the streets*

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/dec/14/home-office-policy-deport-eu-rough-sleepers-ruled-unlawful

It's madness. Complete and utter madness. I am tired of the remainer line that it is in some way "xenophobic" to want some kind of control over the number and type of people who are allowed to live in the country.

There is good immigration, the type that benefits the country and the economy, but not *all* immigration is good. That is why there needs to be some kind of control.

Anazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

Another harsh policy from Big Tess.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/phineasandferb/images/9/90/Little_Witch_Suzy_trapped_under_a_house.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20110307013818

Once we've escaped from the arbitrary strictures of the European Court, we'll be free to re-introduce all kinds of ancient traditions.

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election....

I think May is old enough to remember Ted Heath ?

But she’s not very bright and badly advised.

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

Corbyn will not be prime minister by Christmas 2018. Or 2019. Or 2020 Or 2021.....

When the election comes in 2022, Corbyn will be faced with many problems:

1). The older Tories who did not turn out in 2017, will almost certainly turn out against him in 2022.

2). Brexit will be done.

3). Corbyn already looks older than 69. In 2022 he will look older than 73.

4). There will be a new Tory leader.

5). The Tories will not make the same mistakes of 2017. They will have planned their election strategy for 4 years, and it will target Corbyn's economic black hole.

6). Piling up votes in seats Labour already holds will not be enough. Labour will have to win dozens of Tory non university marginals. Those who voted Tory in 2017 will have to vote for Corbyn.

Corbyn can go on writing to Santa and praying for a Red Christmas but it aint gonna come.

To be fair , I think Corbyn looks good for his age.The old sea dog type.

An old dog certainly, Captain Birdseye maybe, prime minister No.

I previously could not see him as Leader of Labour and the opposition , I could not see him and Labour getting 40% of the vote , and depriving May and the Conservatives of a large majority in June 17.I have read all the accomplished people on here over many years and none of them predicted how well he personally has done since 2015.

When he won the Labour leadership I wondered how on Earth he could do the job with no relevant experience. I was sure it would be a debacle, and at first it seemed to be just that. But he has spent 30 years following politics closely and critically analysing all the moves and developments. But he hasn't been personally involved in much, so probably has a very detached as a well as an informed perspective. Maybe that is in fact the best preparation? Perhaps the Tories should dig up John Redwood rather than Rees-Mogg?

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

3) Mrs May runs a poor campaign and a 1% swing gains Labour 14 seats and enough to turf the Tories out of office

4) Corbyn heads a rainbow coalition government.

5) I flee to Canada cursing the Brexiteers and Mrs may

Plus Osborne for the interest on student debt and the 1% public sector pay cap etc

Better take a thick coat for Canada in December too

Austerity and uni fees didn’t stop the Tories winning a majority in 2015.

Then, Cameron and Osborne had a reputation for knowing what they were doing, no matter that with hindsight, they really hadn't a clue....

OchEye said:

Nigelb said:

Anazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

Another harsh policy from Big Tess.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/phineasandferb/images/9/90/Little_Witch_Suzy_trapped_under_a_house.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20110307013818

Once we've escaped from the arbitrary strictures of the European Court, we'll be free to re-introduce all kinds of ancient traditions.

Droit de Seigneur will delight Boris...

I keep getting confused between the Droit de Seigneur and the Droit de Suite.

IanB2 said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

Yorkcity said:

stevef said:

Corbyn will not be prime minister by Christmas 2018. Or 2019. Or 2020 Or 2021.....

When the election comes in 2022, Corbyn will be faced with many problems:

1). The older Tories who did not turn out in 2017, will almost certainly turn out against him in 2022.

2). Brexit will be done.

3). Corbyn already looks older than 69. In 2022 he will look older than 73.

4). There will be a new Tory leader.

5). The Tories will not make the same mistakes of 2017. They will have planned their election strategy for 4 years, and it will target Corbyn's economic black hole.

6). Piling up votes in seats Labour already holds will not be enough. Labour will have to win dozens of Tory non university marginals. Those who voted Tory in 2017 will have to vote for Corbyn.

Corbyn can go on writing to Santa and praying for a Red Christmas but it aint gonna come.

To be fair , I think Corbyn looks good for his age.The old sea dog type.

An old dog certainly, Captain Birdseye maybe, prime minister No.

I previously could not see him as Leader of Labour and the opposition , I could not see him and Labour getting 40% of the vote , and depriving May and the Conservatives of a large majority in June 17.I have read all the accomplished people on here over many years and none of them predicted how well he personally has done since 2015.

Our PB Tory friends confidently thought he would be lucky to reach 25% in this year's GE

So did everyone else.

JWisemann said:

Has anyone actually got the text of the article?

‘there will probably be another election in the next 12 months’ and says he ‘will probably win. I’m ready to be Prime Minister tomorrow.’

https://graziadaily.co.uk/life/in-the-news/jeremy-corbyn-interview-exclusive/

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

OchEye said:

Nigelb said:

Anazina said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

Another harsh policy from Big Tess.

https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/phineasandferb/images/9/90/Little_Witch_Suzy_trapped_under_a_house.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20110307013818

Once we've escaped from the arbitrary strictures of the European Court, we'll be free to re-introduce all kinds of ancient traditions.

Droit de Seigneur will delight Boris...

That was another historical inaccuracy in Braveheart.

Prima nocta has never existed in this country.

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

In the scenario where May wants to 'ask the audience' because Brexit is on the rocks, she's perhaps more likely to call a second referendum than risk another GE.

Totally agree.She has already used one of her lifelines, and phoned a friend, then done the 50-50.

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

3) Mrs May runs a poor campaign and a 1% swing gains Labour 14 seats and enough to turf the Tories out of office

4) Corbyn heads a rainbow coalition government.

5) I flee to Canada cursing the Brexiteers and Mrs may

1) does not lead to 2). 1) leads to 1,000 new Brexiteering "Peers for a Year", as Mrs. May grows a pair and stuffs the House of Lords. Physically and metaphorically....

And to think, if only you'd played your cards differently, you too could have taken the ermine.... As it is - please leave Downing Street by the back door.

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

3) Mrs May runs a poor campaign and a 1% swing gains Labour 14 seats and enough to turf the Tories out of office

4) Corbyn heads a rainbow coalition government.

5) I flee to Canada cursing the Brexiteers and Mrs may

Plus Osborne for the interest on student debt and the 1% public sector pay cap etc

Better take a thick coat for Canada in December too

Austerity and uni fees didn’t stop the Tories winning a majority in 2015.

7 years of public sector pay cap rather than 5 years and high interest rates on debt contrasted with Corbyn's free tuition fees (not promised by Miliband) did. Though I do accept Osborne's IHT cut plan was a great move in 2015 and May's dementia tax plan a disaster in 2017

7 years into 'austerity' and the Tories were leading in the polls by as much as 25% and CCHQ thought they were on course for a near 300 seat majority.

Then Mrs May shat the bed.

You can't blame Osborne and 'austerity' for the hung parliament.

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

Countries with far far higher rates of immigration...

Even New Zealand Labour is cracking down on immigration in coalition with the populist NZ First

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

3) Mrs May runs a poor campaign and a 1% swing gains Labour 14 seats and enough to turf the Tories out of office

4) Corbyn heads a rainbow coalition government.

5) I flee to Canada cursing the Brexiteers and Mrs may

1) does not lead to 2). 1) leads to 1,000 new Brexiteering "Peers for a Year", as Mrs. May grows a pair and stuffs the House of Lords. Physically and metaphorically....

And to think, if only you'd played your cards differently, you too could have taken the ermine.... As it is - please leave Downing Street by the back door.

That would be a constitutional outrage and probably lead to a no-confidence motion.

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

And in October they charged me for the first time on a flight to Rome only that I refused their service which was chaotic as they tried to give a receipt and would not accept cash.

How far BA have fallen over the last few years

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

It doesn't work in the US, that's for sure.

Work permits will be fine at the bottom end of the work market - there'll always be a steady flow of low-skilled workers ready to come here for a few years to do low-paid jobs. The issue will be much more about attracting those with high-skills, where we will be competing with the US, Australia, Canada, the EU27. What will we offer that other countries can't? If you are a highly-skilled EU national, why bother getting a time-limited, restrictive work permit via the notoriously dysfunctional Home Office when you can go to 25 other countries with no red tape?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

And in October they charged me for the first time on a flight to Rome only that I refused their service which was chaotic as they tried to give a receipt and would not accept cash.

How far BA have fallen over the last few years

Though they make a healthy profit, the luxuries they leave for first class and business class not economy

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

It doesn't work in the US, that's for sure.

Work permits will be fine at the bottom end of the work market - there'll always be a steady flow of low-skilled workers ready to come here for a few years to do low-paid jobs. The issue will be much more about attracting those with high-skills, where we will be competing with the US, Australia, Canada, the EU27. What will we offer that other countries can't? If you are a highly-skilled EU national, why bother getting a time-limited, restrictive work permit via the notoriously dysfunctional Home Office when you can go to 25 other countries with no red tape?

Makes you wonder why any EU citizen goes to work in Canada, US, Australia etc...

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

Countries with far far higher rates of immigration...

Even New Zealand Labour is cracking down on immigration in coalition with the populist NZ First

So CANZUK free movement is off the table then?

Most Leave voters are not bothered about that provided we treat EU immigrants the same as CANZ immigrants

SandyRentool said:

Regarding the misleadingly titled Freedom of Movement, as a Labour Leaver I am against because it is iniquitous. Why should a citizen of the rest of the EU have priority over a citizen of any other country in the world when it comes to living and working in the UK?

Why should a Jamaican nurse be at a disadvantage versus a Spanish nurse? An Indian doctor versus a German doctor?

We have a system at present that prioritises white Europeans over BAME people from the rest of the world. And for some reason 'liberals' are defending the status quo.

That’s a good point. I’d never thought about it that way - thanks for providing a different perspective to think about.

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

3) Mrs May runs a poor campaign and a 1% swing gains Labour 14 seats and enough to turf the Tories out of office

4) Corbyn heads a rainbow coalition government.

5) I flee to Canada cursing the Brexiteers and Mrs may

Plus Osborne for the interest on student debt and the 1% public sector pay cap etc

Better take a thick coat for Canada in December too

Austerity and uni fees didn’t stop the Tories winning a majority in 2015.

7 years of public sector pay cap rather than 5 years and high interest rates on debt contrasted with Corbyn's free tuition fees (not promised by Miliband) did. Though I do accept Osborne's IHT cut plan was a great move in 2015 and May's dementia tax plan a disaster in 2017

7 years into 'austerity' and the Tories were leading in the polls by as much as 25% and CCHQ thought they were on course for a near 300 seat majority.

Then Mrs May shat the bed.

You can't blame Osborne and 'austerity' for the hung parliament.

You can blame Osborne for Brexit though. And with Brexit, you can explain some (but not all) of Mrs May's travails.....

Both Osbo and Clegg tried to persuade Cammo that he would be an idiot to press ahead with the referendum.

The Lords won't block Brexit - it'll Ping Pong probably only once, max twice. The Lords always folds in this situation.

Important to contrast with Tax Credits where it was a Statutory Instrument not subject to Ping Pong - ie one Lords vote killed it.

Also note The Times reported a few days that May will be appointing her first proper batch of new Peers since she became PM. Don't know how many but it will presumably close the gap - Con currently 49 behind Lab + LD.

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election....

I think May is old enough to remember Ted Heath ?

But she’s not very bright and badly advised.

But she is PM and your hero edits a local free-sheet.....

Dave's my hero and he earns inter alia 650,000 per year for one day a week.

I have a lot of time for Cameron 2010-2015 - a difficult job, well and bravely done.

The less said about 2015-2016, the better. But Osborne landed him in that - if they hadn't nuked the Lib Dems......

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic here's how Corbyn becomes Prime Minister by next Christmas.

1) In early 2018 The House of Lords is the site of attritional warfare over the Brexit bill

2) Mrs May decides to call a snap election to sock it to their Lordships and reform the House of Lords. Call it the 'Who Governs?' Election.

3) Mrs May runs a poor campaign and a 1% swing gains Labour 14 seats and enough to turf the Tories out of office

4) Corbyn heads a rainbow coalition government.

5) I flee to Canada cursing the Brexiteers and Mrs may

1) does not lead to 2). 1) leads to 1,000 new Brexiteering "Peers for a Year", as Mrs. May grows a pair and stuffs the House of Lords. Physically and metaphorically....

And to think, if only you'd played your cards differently, you too could have taken the ermine.... As it is - please leave Downing Street by the back door.

I'm not sure Her Majesty will authorise the creation of that many peers.

She'd point out her Mrs May's vision was rejected by the voters when they took away Dave's majority from her.

This would be the same Queen that, before the Referendum, was asking people for three good reasons to stay in the EU?

Yeah, right.....

The_Apocalypse said:

SandyRentool said:

Regarding the misleadingly titled Freedom of Movement, as a Labour Leaver I am against because it is iniquitous. Why should a citizen of the rest of the EU have priority over a citizen of any other country in the world when it comes to living and working in the UK?

Why should a Jamaican nurse be at a disadvantage versus a Spanish nurse? An Indian doctor versus a German doctor?

We have a system at present that prioritises white Europeans over BAME people from the rest of the world. And for some reason 'liberals' are defending the status quo.

That’s a good point. I’d never thought about it that way - thanks for providing a different perspective to think about.

This is the argument I made for a long time. But I always have to qualify that by saying that my solution is a very minority and unpopular one in that I would not introduce barriers for EU migrants, I would remove them for everyone. Anyone should be able to come here as long as they can support themselves either through work or independent means and they are not a risk to the country through terrorist or criminal activities.

As I say it is not a popular view so I am not holding my breath on it ever becoming policy for any of the main parties.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

And in October they charged me for the first time on a flight to Rome only that I refused their service which was chaotic as they tried to give a receipt and would not accept cash.

How far BA have fallen over the last few years

Though they make a healthy profit, the luxuries they leave for first class and business class not economy

I flew to Canada in Premium and it was little better and the staff only do the basics

Walsh largely removed the luxury element of BA true but it is no longer just a pension fund with wings

SandyRentool said:

Anazina said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Charles said:

Why did @Anazina get banned?

Has she been banned - I thought she has only started posting

I hope not! I am here!

Fake news from @Charles !!!

Showing up on my system with the "user banned carry on" avatar

I blamed the Christmas Gremlins (the best Christmas film)

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

It doesn't work in the US, that's for sure.

Work permits will be fine at the bottom end of the work market - there'll always be a steady flow of low-skilled workers ready to come here for a few years to do low-paid jobs. The issue will be much more about attracting those with high-skills, where we will be competing with the US, Australia, Canada, the EU27. What will we offer that other countries can't? If you are a highly-skilled EU national, why bother getting a time-limited, restrictive work permit via the notoriously dysfunctional Home Office when you can go to 25 other countries with no red tape?

Makes you wonder why any EU citizen goes to work in Canada, US, Australia etc...

No, it makes me wonder how we will persuade highly-qualified EU citizens to seek a UK work permit instead of one for Canada, the US or Australia

What do you see as our disadvantage versus other racist xenophobic work permit countries like the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong.......

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Regarding the misleadingly titled Freedom of Movement, as a Labour Leaver I am against because it is iniquitous. Why should a citizen of the rest of the EU have priority over a citizen of any other country in the world when it comes to living and working in the UK?

Why should a Jamaican nurse be at a disadvantage versus a Spanish nurse? An Indian doctor versus a German doctor?

We have a system at present that prioritises white Europeans over BAME people from the rest of the world. And for some reason 'liberals' are defending the status quo.

That there is a strong case for extending the system to more countries is hardly a good argument for cutting your nose off to spite your face and preventing FOM from the countries that are already signed up.

We have the current system because by the time we decided to join the EEC, France and the Low Countries had written the rules! * These left no room for giving more generous terms to previous 'allies'.

Neither the UK nor Scandinavia took seriously the 1950s talks which preceded the Treaty of Rome/EEC. The UK showed similar interest in the Coal and Steel Community, i.e. before the EEC.

In 1960 the UK set up EFTA as an EEC rival. Fast forward >55 years and EFTA has 13 million people. The EU-27 after (if) we leave has ~450 million.

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

And in October they charged me for the first time on a flight to Rome only that I refused their service which was chaotic as they tried to give a receipt and would not accept cash.

How far BA have fallen over the last few years

Though they make a healthy profit, the luxuries they leave for first class and business class not economy

Not much luxury in BA Business these days. I am trying Virgin Upper Class for my trip to HK in March. They also came in £700 cheaper than BA.

Give yourself plenty of time in the Club House - get a haircut, have something to eat, enjoy a cocktail or three. In the air they're not bad - on the ground they're in a league of their own (if its included, take the chauffeur to the private terminal & breeze through security...)

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

It doesn't work in the US, that's for sure.

Work via the notoriously dysfunctional Home Office when you can go to 25 other countries with no red tape?

Makes you wonder why any EU citizen goes to work in Canada, US, Australia etc...

No, it makes me wonder how we will persuade highly-qualified EU citizens to seek a UK work permit instead of one for Canada, the US or Australia

What do you see as our disadvantage versus other racist xenophobic work permit countries like the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong.......

I see our main disadvantage initially as being one of perception.

That's an admission and a half.

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

It doesn't work in the US, that's for sure.

Work via the notoriously dysfunctional Home Office when you can go to 25 other countries with no red tape?

Makes you wonder why any EU citizen goes to work in Canada, US, Australia etc...

No, Australia

What do you see as our disadvantage versus other racist xenophobic work permit countries like the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong.......

I see our main disadvantage initially as being one of perception. We are a country that is putting up a barrier to EU citizens that did not previously exist. Hopefully, we will realise we are in a serious competition for talent and do all we can to be as welcoming and hassle free as possible.

Alternatively, we're levelling the playing field for the other 94% of the planet.....

Perhaps. My guess - and I could be wrong - is that those who were voting to reduce immigration from the EU were not voting to increase it from elsewhere.

Anazina said:

SandyRentool said:

Regarding the misleadingly titled Freedom of Movement, as a Labour Leaver I am against because it is iniquitous. Why should a citizen of the rest of the EU have priority over a citizen of any other country in the world when it comes to living and working in the UK?

Why should a Jamaican nurse be at a disadvantage versus a Spanish nurse? An Indian doctor versus a German doctor?

We have a system at present that prioritises white Europeans over BAME people from the rest of the world. And for some reason 'liberals' are defending the status quo.

That there is a strong case for extending the system to more countries is hardly a good argument for cutting your nose off to spite your face and preventing FOM from the countries that are already signed up.

Plus people forget that FoM exists as a consequence of the comprehensive free trade agreement that is the EU single market. A true single market has to allow free movement of Iabour as well as goods, services and capital. Otherwise citizens of one country could accrue wealth by membership - for example as we do by being a financial hub, while blocking citizens of other member companies from the ability to share in that prosperity by working in that sector. Now, we could do a similar deal with other countries, but in practice the divergence in wealth and regulatory attitudes would be deeply problematic. For us, Aus and NZ would be the obvious matches, but distance precludes that - and they have their own reasons to oppose it. America next, where we face another problem - its light touch on regulation and size would leave us swamped economically and would be the opposite of control. India and China, agreeing such a deal would make Eastern European immigration look like a picnic. I agree we should perhaps offer more generous visa terms to places like the West Indies where we have historical ties or stable nations in the developing world as a reward for good governance, but we get little in return, and we can do that within the EU anyway.

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

TBF the food is better, so the experience is better (the old food was a negative experience). You just have to pay for it

The drink is exactly the same. But now you have to pay for it!

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

RobD said:

Anazina said:

FPT The complete obsession with ending 'free movement' is likely to be the undoing of a good deal for the UK. Reading HYUFD bang out the stock Central Office policy line hour after hour, day after day might have a hypnotic effect on the weaker of mind, but it hardly moves the process forward.

In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.

Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.

Freedom of movement within certain areas of the UK? The Home Office can barely manage as it is!

Good.

What's good about that?

Why do people who in most contexts think central planning is lunacy, think that the Home Office ought to be capable of planning the movement of people in a perfect and optimal way?

I think it’s a barmy idea!

But having the Home Office dole out work permits for Europeans based on deciding how many people each sector of the economy needs isn't?

Seems to work in many other countries....USA, Australia...New Zealand....Canada....

It doesn't work in the US, that's for sure.

Work permits with no red tape?

Language. Cultural. Colleagues. Global outlook.

In a lot of businesses in the tech sector and others English is the working language. In terms of global outlook, when you start putting up barriers you have one hell of a sell on your hands. I suspect we will get round all this by offering work permits on demand above a certain wage level and in certain industries. That will then give EU citizens a significant advantage, because they will still be able to travel here visa free to look for jobs.

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

TBF the food is better, so the experience is better (the old food was a negative experience). You just have to pay for it

The drink is exactly the same. But now you have to pay for it!

I rarely drink on planes. The coffee is much better

You have to pay for that now.

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

TBF the food is better, so the experience is better (the old food was a negative experience). You just have to pay for it

The drink is exactly the same. But now you have to pay for it!

I rarely drink on planes. The coffee is much better

You have to pay for that now.

Used to be quite a regular supporter of BA short haul.

But my experience since they've switched to a paid in flight model is that the stewards are too slow in dispensing/charging.

EasyJet is the winner now.

Flying Swissair to Zurich for NY. No idea that that's like...

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mrs May is putting Gove in the corner.

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/943067072065568768

I remember BA saying they were improving their customers’ in-flight service experience by getting rid of free food and drink, and charging for it instead.

TBF the food is better, so the experience is better (the old food was a negative experience). You just have to pay for it

The drink is exactly the same. But now you have to pay for it!

I rarely drink on planes. The coffee is much better

You have to pay for that now.

Yes, but I'm ok with that