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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s “I’ll be PM by Xmas next year” boast fails impress pu

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  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?

    As a multi-lingual chap, I can say the best language in the world is Latin. It is the language of Catullus 16, then French is rather impressive, especially cursing in, it is like wiping your arse with silk.

    The language of Shakespeare is number 3.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?
    I see you not using any other language than English on this forum?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The “backlash” against Star Wars: The Last Jedi, explained
    Why the latest film in the galaxy-spanning franchise has proved so unexpectedly polarizing"

    https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/12/18/16791844/star-wars-last-jedi-backlash-controversy

    Saw it last night and thought it was the best since the originals
    Having seen it twice I now rate the series (in part with nostalgia factor): 6, 8, R1, 5, 7, 3, 4, 2, 1 (Yes I know 4 started it all and is objectively superior to 3, which certainly has more flaws, but IDK, the expanded scope and concluding nature of it make it more fun).

    But enough Star wars, good night folks.
    That ranking is blasphemous. 6 as the best?! 3 above(!) 4. What the hell?!?
    The first two to be released are the best in my opinion. I'd be surprised if the new one is better than either of those two.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?

    As a multi-lingual chap, I can say the best language in the world is Latin. It is the language of Catullus 16, then French is rather impressive, especially cursing in, it is like wiping your arse with silk.

    The language of Shakespeare is number 3.
    English has vocabulary from Latin and French, as well as Germanic and choice words from a whole host of other world languages.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    "The “backlash” against Star Wars: The Last Jedi, explained
    Why the latest film in the galaxy-spanning franchise has proved so unexpectedly polarizing"

    https://www.vox.com/culture/2017/12/18/16791844/star-wars-last-jedi-backlash-controversy

    Saw it last night and thought it was the best since the originals
    Having seen it twice I now rate the series (in part with nostalgia factor): 6, 8, R1, 5, 7, 3, 4, 2, 1 (Yes I know 4 started it all and is objectively superior to 3, which certainly has more flaws, but IDK, the expanded scope and concluding nature of it make it more fun).

    But enough Star wars, good night folks.
    That ranking is blasphemous. 6 as the best?! 3 above(!) 4. What the hell?!?
    The first two to be released are the best in my opinion. I'd be surprised if the new one is better than either of those two.
    It's not. People are getting starry eyed, it happened with 7 as well, but eventually the natural order returned.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Regarding the misleadingly titled Freedom of Movement, as a Labour Leaver I am against because it is iniquitous. Why should a citizen of the rest of the EU have priority over a citizen of any other country in the world when it comes to living and working in the UK?

    Why should a Jamaican nurse be at a disadvantage versus a Spanish nurse? An Indian doctor versus a German doctor?

    We have a system at present that prioritises white Europeans over BAME people from the rest of the world. And for some reason 'liberals' are defending the status quo.

    EDIT

    I would accept that we have historic links with the likes of France, and indeed open borders were not an issue when EU membership was restricted to our close European neighbours with not dissimilar levels of economic development. The problem arises from prioritising immigration of white Europeans from Eastern European countries with which we have absolutely nothing in common either historically or culturally, and from which our own economy diverges massively.
    Those Prussian soldiers who won the battle of Waterloo with us. Where did they come from?
    You could argue that the the Prussians and British were fighting against the resurgance of a brutal regime that had sought to weld european nations together under an unwanted hegemony. British foreign policy used to be ensuring a balance of power existed on the continent of europe. We forget that at our peril.
    Didn't the vote change all that?

    Most voters in Europe want to stick together. To threaten to dictate policy to Europeans under British arms, like Michael Howard, is untenable in the 21st century. A more unkind observation would be that it reflects the basic unwillingness of anti-Europeans to think any thoughts about Europe less stale than 1945.
    Spain and Portugal and parts of Germany and Italy were occupied by Napoleon, France, the Benelux nations and Denmark and Greece and Austria by the Nazis, Finland by the Soviets, most of Eastern Europe by the Nazis and Soviets. We were never occupied by any of them, neither was Switzerland so it is understandable neither ourselves nor the Swiss feel the need to be in the EU
    Time to bone up on Finnish history?
    During the Winter War from 1939-1940 the USSR invaded Finland and Finland ceded 11% of its land area to the Soviets as a result.
    Not occupying a country really is it?. Although I suspect the Finns were peeved. However on that basis we lost the Channel Islands.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    Charles said:

    5,6,7,8

    No wait, that's my favourite Steps song.

    5, 8, R1, 4, 6, 3,2,1

    I've never watched for than the originals (4,5,6?) and don't see why people are so obsessed by such mediocre films
    Nostalgia and fun. Think Brexit, but harmless and fun.
  • EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    After Geordie!
  • kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:



    Time to bone up on Finnish history?

    During the Winter War from 1939-1940 the USSR invaded Finland and Finland ceded 11% of its land area to the Soviets as a result.
    Not occupying a country really is it?. Although I suspect the Finns were peeved. However on that basis we lost the Channel Islands.
    Finland was occupied by the Russian Empire (pre-revolution) 1809 to 1918.
  • EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    After Geordie!
    Ha'way the lads!
  • I believe that most commentators and most certainly the majority of voters understimate the magnitude of change that is occuring within Labour. Momentum/Corbyn/Mcdonell have not really become normalised as they have not been put under real scrutiny. A significant number of the urban remainer vote will be repulsed by Corbynista economics and "anti-imperialism" if its true nature is revealed before the next election.

    The civil war in Labour will restart in some form as well - surely the centre right of Labour are not simply going to cave in to Momentum as they are deselected? Corbyn and co are constrained at the moment by official LP policy and Momentum mean to change that (more nationalisation, no nukes etc.) By God it is going to be lively!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,678

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:



    Time to bone up on Finnish history?

    During the Winter War from 1939-1940 the USSR invaded Finland and Finland ceded 11% of its land area to the Soviets as a result.
    Not occupying a country really is it?. Although I suspect the Finns were peeved. However on that basis we lost the Channel Islands.
    Finland was occupied by the Russian Empire (pre-revolution) 1809 to 1918.
    HYUFD said Soviets and confirmed 1939-40 in subsequent post.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?

    As a multi-lingual chap, I can say the best language in the world is Latin. It is the language of Catullus 16, then French is rather impressive, especially cursing in, it is like wiping your arse with silk.

    The language of Shakespeare is number 3.
    English has vocabulary from Latin and French, as well as Germanic and choice words from a whole host of other world languages.
    English is not precious about external adoptions in the way that French is and widely spoken today (both as a first language and probably the most widely spoken second language), unlike Latin which I'm sure has to be a joke - what's "television" in Latin? I'm sure I'll be told!
  • rcs1000 said:


    Putting my economist hat on for a second, the Eurozone doesn't have a private sector debt problem. (See: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS?year_high_desc=true). Italians, Germans, Greeks and French don't owe very much money. The Spanish and the Irish did owe lots, but in both cases, private sector debt has come down very sharply in the last decade.

    The problem the Eurozone has is with low confidence leading to excessive savings rates, and therefore sluggish economic growth. Indeed, we and the Eurozone have mirror image problems: their savings rate is too high, resulting in big current account surpluses, while ours is too low resulting in a current account deficit as we such up all their production.

    We need to raise our savings rate, they need to lower theirs.

    Some historic trends in private sector debt (% GDP):

    2001 UK 122, Germany 112, France 77, Italy 61, Spain 95, Neth 112, Greece 50, Eire 72
    2004 UK 138, Germany 106, France 76, Italy 68, Spain 116, Neth 114, Greece 62, Eire 105
    2007 UK 171, Germany 97, France 89, Italy 82, Spain 167, Neth 114, Greece 85, Eire 158
    2010 UK 188, Germany 88, France 96, Italy 93, Spain 170, Neth 115, Greece 112, Eire 133
    2013 UK 152, Germany 82, France 96, Italy 91, Spain 146, Neth 115, Greece 118, Eire 104
    2016 UK 134, Germany 77, France 98, Italy 86, Spain 111, Neth 110, Greece 109, Eire 47 (!)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    @PBMODERATOR

    We can disagree on Brexit, or which of Corbyn or May is best to run the country, but the gentleman rating French above English is really going too far !
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?

    As a multi-lingual chap, I can say the best language in the world is Latin. It is the language of Catullus 16, then French is rather impressive, especially cursing in, it is like wiping your arse with silk.

    The language of Shakespeare is number 3.
    English has vocabulary from Latin and French, as well as Germanic and choice words from a whole host of other world languages.
    Hindi too?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?

    As a multi-lingual chap, I can say the best language in the world is Latin. It is the language of Catullus 16, then French is rather impressive, especially cursing in, it is like wiping your arse with silk.

    The language of Shakespeare is number 3.
    English has vocabulary from Latin and French, as well as Germanic and choice words from a whole host of other world languages.
    Hindi too?
    And other languages from the Subcontinent too.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,044


    Not an answer to your question, but a comment.

    In some cases "shortage of labour at the bottom end of the market" just indicates an economic activity that doesn't make sense to do in the UK anymore (or at least to do so in a labour-intensive manner) because nobody is willing to do that work at the pay level necessary to render it profitable. The low end of textile work, for example.

    In other cases, particularly seasonal work (e.g. agriculture) or short-term (e.g. domestic work/au pairs) it makes sense to use temporary visas.

    Something that's concerned me for a long time is what opportunities are out there for people with low skills, particularly if they're not fit or willing for manual labour. The obvious answer is "encourage them to up-skill" but, as someone who worked in adult education, I'm pretty sure it's more complicated than that.

    It isn't entirely about being 'willing' to do the work.

    In more labour-intensive days, many people with little mental ability were employed usefully and to their own benefit. Such places as hospitals provided sheltered working environments for many people who nowadays are considered of no use to society.

    The threshold of being considered of no use to society is simply getting higher. Perhaps there will come a time when people towards the genius end of the spectrum will find themselves of no use, somewhat before the whole of the population is considered useless.

    Good evening, everybody. I've been reading threads with interest but my broadband is rather fragile so I haven't been posting. Not fair to post & run, so forgive me if it happens now.
  • I believe that most commentators and most certainly the majority of voters understimate the magnitude of change that is occuring within Labour. Momentum/Corbyn/Mcdonell have not really become normalised as they have not been put under real scrutiny. A significant number of the urban remainer vote will be repulsed by Corbynista economics and "anti-imperialism" if its true nature is revealed before the next election.

    The civil war in Labour will restart in some form as well - surely the centre right of Labour are not simply going to cave in to Momentum as they are deselected? Corbyn and co are constrained at the moment by official LP policy and Momentum mean to change that (more nationalisation, no nukes etc.) By God it is going to be lively!

    It already has:

    Reports tonight that a constituency labour party chair has resigned in protest at the bullying and corruption by Corbynista's who she has claimed have rigged a candidate selection. Kay Dickinson who was in charge of Morecambe and Lunesdale CLP announced her resignation on social media in an explosive post tearing into the increasing hard left influence within the party
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    edited December 2017
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    EPG said:

    Regarding the misleadingly titled Freedom of Movement, as a Labour Leaver I am against because it is iniquitous. Why should a citizen of the rest of the EU have priority over a citizen of any other country in the world when it comes to living and working in the UK?

    We have a system at present that prioritises white Europeans over BAME people from the rest of the world. And for some reason 'liberals' are defending the status quo.

    EDIT

    I would accept that we have historic links with the likes of France, and indeed open borders were not an issue when EU membership was restricted to our close European neighbours with not dissimilar levels of economic development. The problem arises from prioritising immigration of white Europeans from Eastern European countries with which we have absolutely nothing in common either historically or culturally, and from which our own economy diverges massively.
    Those Prussian soldiers who won the battle of Waterloo with us. Where did they come from?
    You could argue that the the Prussians and British were fighting against the resurgance of a brutal regime that had sought to weld european nations together under an unwanted hegemony. British foreign policy used to be ensuring a balance of power existed on the continent of europe. We forget that at our peril.
    Didn't the vote change all that?

    Most voters in Europe want to stick together. To threaten to dictate policy to Europeans under British arms, like Michael Howard, is untenable in the 21st century. A more unkind observation would be that it reflects the basic unwillingness of anti-Europeans to think any thoughts about Europe less stale than 1945.
    Spain and Portugal and parts of Germany and Italy were occupied by Napoleon, France, the Benelux nations and Denmark and Greece and Austria by the Nazis, Finland by the Soviets, most of Eastern Europe by the Nazis and Soviets. We were never occupied by any of them, neither was Switzerland so it is understandable neither ourselves nor the Swiss feel the need to be in the EU
    Time to bone up on Finnish history?
    During the Winter War from 1939-1940 the USSR invaded Finland and Finland ceded 11% of its land area to the Soviets as a result.
    Not occupying a country really is it?. Although I suspect the Finns were peeved. However on that basis we lost the Channel Islands.
    "peeved" might understate Finns' feelings on the matter
  • The civil war in Labour will restart in some form as well - surely the centre right of Labour are not simply going to cave in to Momentum as they are deselected?

    Is there going to be a bloodbath of MPs deselected? Do the Labour Left even need to push for this to happen, given the chances of MPs standing down in existing constituencies (with some having gone in 2015 and before) and new constituencies being won by left-wing candidates?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,692

    rcs1000 said:


    Putting my economist hat on for a second, the Eurozone doesn't have a private sector debt problem. (See: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS?year_high_desc=true). Italians, Germans, Greeks and French don't owe very much money. The Spanish and the Irish did owe lots, but in both cases, private sector debt has come down very sharply in the last decade.

    The problem the Eurozone has is with low confidence leading to excessive savings rates, and therefore sluggish economic growth. Indeed, we and the Eurozone have mirror image problems: their savings rate is too high, resulting in big current account surpluses, while ours is too low resulting in a current account deficit as we such up all their production.

    We need to raise our savings rate, they need to lower theirs.

    Some historic trends in private sector debt (% GDP):

    2001 UK 122, Germany 112, France 77, Italy 61, Spain 95, Neth 112, Greece 50, Eire 72
    2004 UK 138, Germany 106, France 76, Italy 68, Spain 116, Neth 114, Greece 62, Eire 105
    2007 UK 171, Germany 97, France 89, Italy 82, Spain 167, Neth 114, Greece 85, Eire 158
    2010 UK 188, Germany 88, France 96, Italy 93, Spain 170, Neth 115, Greece 112, Eire 133
    2013 UK 152, Germany 82, France 96, Italy 91, Spain 146, Neth 115, Greece 118, Eire 104
    2016 UK 134, Germany 77, France 98, Italy 86, Spain 111, Neth 110, Greece 109, Eire 47 (!)
    Ireland is a slight cheat because their GDP was sharply revised upwards - not thanks to growth, but due to historic miscalculations. Nevertheless, it is absolutely fascinating to see how they have successfully deleveraged. (Worth remembering, of course, that some of the decline is due to writing off bad debts rather than payback.)

    The main conclusion of the World Bank numbers, and this is one that is backed up by looking at the aggregate consumer loans portion of the big quotes banks, is that we all owe quite a bit less money than in 2007.

    Which is a salutatory reminder that the next crisis (and there will be one) will not be the same as the last one. It is unlikely to be the result of excessive private sector indebtedness, but will instead be something entirely different. (Bitcoin?)
  • kjh said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:



    Time to bone up on Finnish history?

    During the Winter War from 1939-1940 the USSR invaded Finland and Finland ceded 11% of its land area to the Soviets as a result.
    Not occupying a country really is it?. Although I suspect the Finns were peeved. However on that basis we lost the Channel Islands.
    Finland was occupied by the Russian Empire (pre-revolution) 1809 to 1918.
    HYUFD said Soviets and confirmed 1939-40 in subsequent post.
    The Soviets didn't occupy the whole country like the Russian Empire did. Sweden exchanged Finland (given to Russia) for Norway (gained from Denmark).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited December 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    @PBMODERATOR

    We can disagree on Brexit, or which of Corbyn or May is best to run the country, but the gentleman rating French above English is really going too far !

    Je ne regrette rien.

    I only learned French so I could insult the singes capitulards mangeurs de fromage in their own language.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Peston thinks Corbyn and McDonnell are edging towards supporting a second referendum:

    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1966566813668054
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,494



    No, making sure that everyone has an equal chance no matter where they come from. Given that, as people like you rightly keep saying, we are still going to need all these immigrants the whole point is that those migrating from outside the EU will have a far better chance of getting in when EU citizens do not have an unfair advantage.

    I was going to reply that unfortunately many people have very definite preferences for what backgrounds immigrants have. But on reflection that's a lot less true than it used to be, isn't it? You don't often here people say something like "All Poles are (whatever)", because they've now met enough Poles to realise it sounds silly. And while people are uneasy about the presence of ISIS sympathisers, they've generally resisted any temptation to conclude that all Pakistanis are like that. There are still difference in attitude, but less than there were. In 50 years, I suspect such attitudes will seem weird, like being suspicious of all redheads.
  • rcs1000 said:


    Ireland is a slight cheat because their GDP was sharply revised upwards - not thanks to growth, but due to historic miscalculations.

    Feeling an ignoramus here, but my understanding was that GDP revisions over such errors don't just affect one year's data, but are usually applied retroactively (though with difficulty and considerable educated guesstimation) across the whole series.

    Obviously my belief is wrong, as a quick glance at this graph will confirm - approx 26% uprating of GDP in 2015.

    Are there retrospectively updated figures actually available for Ireland? Any reason why the World Bank figures haven't been?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111

    Peston thinks Corbyn and McDonnell are edging towards supporting a second referendum:

    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1966566813668054

    I hope they do. They'll lose 10% of their support within a month.
  • NEW THREAD

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Ishmael_Z said:

    EPG said:

    Quite right. I would say that Poland is one of the most culturally similar countries to Britain in Europe. I personally know a number of Britons who've married Poles in recent years - hardly likely if they're strange and alien. As for the suggestion that the Leavers' prime purpose was to clear the way for more Arab refugees and Asians - laughable cant.

    With Poles we're talking about a bunch of people many of whom like to drink beer and eat stodgy starchy foods and are suspicious-yet-also-envious of the Germans. From the UK perspective, these are not exactly Martians or moonmen.
    I think it's partially the curse of English becoming the lingua franca. People regard speaking a foreign tongue as some kind of sorcery.
    English is the best language in the world.
    You have compared it with every one of the 7000 odd other languages currently spoken to reach that conclusion?

    As a multi-lingual chap, I can say the best language in the world is Latin. It is the language of Catullus 16, then French is rather impressive, especially cursing in, it is like wiping your arse with silk.

    The language of Shakespeare is number 3.
    The best word I have come across is Portuguese. Saudade. Pronounced roughly sow - dah - che. It means deep melancholic longing. I also like the diminutive in Portuguese, which is inho. So Ronaldinho is 'little Ronaldo'. In fact Ronaldinho's real name is Ronaldo, but he is called Ronaldinho to distinguish him from the older Ronaldo.
  • Pulpstar said:

    @PBMODERATOR

    We can disagree on Brexit, or which of Corbyn or May is best to run the country, but the gentleman rating French above English is really going too far !

    Je ne regrette rien.

    I only learned French so I could insult the singes capitulards mangeurs de fromage in their own language.
    Bravo
  • stodge said:

    HYUFD said:



    Ironically it may be in the Tories' best interests for Corbyn to narrowly win next time (or even better become PM after the Tories won most seats).

    Winning narrowly in 1992 saw the Tories fail to win another overall majority for 23 years, had Kinnock narrowly won the 1992 general election a Heseltine or Portillo led Tory Party would have had a real shot of being back in power after 5 years

    Possibly. It was the scale of the defeat that stunned the Conservatives in 1997 not the fact of it.

    The Conservatives I spoke to expected to lose but thought the polls were wrong and Blair would win a majority of 30-50 which could be overturned at the next election. Most didn't expect a landslide - the choice of Hague was the consequence of the landslide. Had the Labour majority been 30 rather than 150, Portillo or Clarke would have won.

    To speculate on a winter's night - let's assume Corbyn wins a majority of 25 in 2022 (not inconceivable, I'm sure you'd agree). Who would lead the Conservatives in opposition - JRM, Hunt, A.N Other, S.O Else ? I do agree the analogy with October 1974 could be valid but it might not be.

    That is rubbish, and a good illustration of how political activists usually totally misread the feeling in other parties. I worked as an intern in CCHQ in 1996 and I can tell you that the Tories from the very top downwards fully expected to be buried under the mother of all landslides. You can easily verify this by reading many autobiographies from leading figures of the time (including Major's), and you will find the same general recollection from most blue rinse ladies who went canvassing in 97.
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Mortimer said:

    Peston thinks Corbyn and McDonnell are edging towards supporting a second referendum:

    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/1966566813668054

    I hope they do. They'll lose 10% of their support within a month.
    Those UKIP votes which Labour unexpectedly picked up in June would go straight back to the Tories.
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