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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s “I’ll be PM by Xmas next year” boast fails impress pu

We all remember the heady days of June this year when after doing surprisingly well at the general election Corbyn was reported to have a told people at Glastonbury that he would be PM by Christmas.
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27% for next year seems far too high.
Off topic from previous thread:
The amount of benefits that claimants are entitled to claim but didn't was estimated by DWP at over 12bn. Only 6/10 of those entitled to JSA actually claimed it.
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/645577/income-related-benefits-estimates-of-take-up-2015-16.pdf
The commission is planning tougher scrutiny of financial centres outside the EU that offer services to European clients, even as it insists that financial services will not be included in a Brexit trade deal with the UK.
Under such a scenario, the access to the EU market enjoyed by Britain’s financial services industry — home to about half the EU’s 6,000 investment companies — would be determined by whether the commission deems UK rules to be “equivalent” to EU standards, rather than by rights set out in a treaty.
https://www.ft.com/content/98c9a2b4-e4a0-11e7-97e2-916d4fbac0da
That's good.
https://twitter.com/spikedonline/status/943107240453656576
....and given he’s an ultra contrarian it’s as you’d expect.
The only snag is that Corbyn and his mini politburo look about as socially liberal as Ceausescu
In some part, the UK will have to fudge on free movement to get a decent deal. Ultimately even the witless Theresa May won't drive the economy to the wall on the back of xenophobic calls to lock out foreigners.
Regional visas would be one idea – free movement within London/Greater Manchester and other successful outward-looking cities where international colleagues are welcome. Canada uses a similar system, province by province.
Corbyn's trio of problems were a) he looked like an extremist b) he was unpopular c) no-one thought he could win.
The newly empowered and vocal Tory right have sorted out a) for him – he now looks like a moderate compared to them. Theresa May sorted out b) for him by holding an election where he scooped ~40% and held on to it afterwards. This the part of the strategy for c).
Out of interest, what do you find xenophobic about a country having control over who it does or doesn't let live and work there?
I presume you carefully control who you do or don't let into your house, sleep in your bed, rummage through your kitchen cabinets and eat all your crisps...
You are a classic example of the adage that the quality of posts is inversely proportional to the quantity and the first post from most posters is well worth reading.
I'm a little worried about the bureaucracy and policing of a regional visa system but it's worth looking at. I do think if employers want to bring in foreign workers said employers should provide for their accommodation and make an additional contribution toward their transport, use of medical services etc.
Don't worry about HYUFD - his lack of any kind of critical faculty where the Conservative Party is concerned is almost endearing.
Entering people's property without permission is a crime, as is stealing.
Poor analogy.
And bonus caps are fine - the UK regulators wanted them to be stricter but structured differently as they perversely increase systemic volatility.
I guess that's the problem with having politicians with no idea of financial services works setting the rules
(I sense that HYUFD will be here very shortly to trot out a Central Office line, probably in a very long sentence without the benefit of punctuation).
The 17.4 million who voted to LEAVE (and I include myself) might be wrong. People don't like being told they are wrong but they could be wrong - I could be wrong.
I've been wrong before - I don't feel "offended" by those telling me I might be wrong. I don't consider those who think I'm wrong "traitors" - that's a crass over-reaction.
Inasmuch as we have voted to LEAVE, it is incumbent on the Government to make it work for everyone not just the 17.4 million and not just because they are a larger group than the 16 million who voted REMAIN and the 13 million who didn't vote and also not just because they want to remain the party of Government.
If you don't vote your vote doesn't count
Westminster bubble people (including our GH) are still dining out on the ‘prime minister by xmas’ anecdote despite it being completely unverified second-hand gossip from someone else.
Corbyn derangement syndrome lives as strong as ever, it seems.
A good deal of actual Leave voters support freedom of movement.
Also the leak around the seal is equivalent of just over one shower and why do the media think ships have sea trials.
The level of journalism is so poor these days
Welcome, BTW.
Anything else we don't know. It's up to the government to chart what they believe to be the optimal course. And to be judged on their decisions at the next election
I would suggest that it is Tezzie who is holed below the waterline.
When the election comes in 2022, Corbyn will be faced with many problems:
1). The older Tories who did not turn out in 2017, will almost certainly turn out against him in 2022.
2). Brexit will be done.
3). Corbyn already looks older than 69. In 2022 he will look older than 73.
4). There will be a new Tory leader.
5). The Tories will not make the same mistakes of 2017. They will have planned their election strategy for 4 years, and it will target Corbyn's economic black hole.
6). Piling up votes in seats Labour already holds will not be enough. Labour will have to win dozens of Tory non university marginals. Those who voted Tory in 2017 will have to vote for Corbyn.
Corbyn can go on writing to Santa and praying for a Red Christmas but it aint gonna come.
http://www.pagefield.co.uk/insight/the-year-that-was-2017/
Ave atque Vale.
Obviously it is nonsense as Mike points out.
Release Barabbus!
https://www.cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance/trespass-and-nuisance-land
I hope not! I am here!
I do hope that abuse is called out from all sides and prosecutions follow and it will not only be the far right who will be caught out but elements of the far left.
Standards in public life and respect for MP's is at the core of our democracy and it will be interesting in time to see how the moderate labour MP's fare over the attacks they will come in for from the Corbynista's
Edit: sorry, just realized it is anti-Corbyn. Absolutely cracking gag, finest tradition of Gillray, etc.
2. Brexit might be done, but the issue won't have been forgotten and there might well be even more people who want to punish the govt for it by then.
3. I'll give you that he will look older. But the passage of time is beyond anyone's control.
4. There may be a new Tory leader. The question is whether it will be a better Tory leader.
5. I doubt the Tories will make the same mistakes again, but there are an infinite number of never previously made mistakes available. And I don't think the Tory's already undeserved reputation for economic competence will survive Brexit.
6. Piling up votes in Labour held seats was emphatically not what happened in 2017. In fact they lost some Labour seats. The electoral map in fact looks very favourable to Labour if they can shore up support in their one time heartlands. Throw in a Lib Dem revival or a UKIP revival as well and the Tories look very vulnerable. All three at the same time would seal their doom.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROKXlvYMKQc
Just as I am not free to come into your home and start munching your crisps, so too the people of the UK voted in such a way that indicated a preference for allowing invited guests in, rather than the current free-for-all imposed on us by Brussels.
Good analogy.
Explain to me, again, what you find xenophobic about a desire to control one's borders and keep undesirables out?
However no PM since 1945 has got the post after coming second in terms of seats.
% 2016 leavers = 51.9% x GE turnout 67% = 34.8
% 2016 remainers = 48.1% x GE turnout 74% = 35.6
So, all things remaining unchanged, 50.6% of 2017 GE voters were remainers.