IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?

The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.

*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.

The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place

That's a long time ago.

The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:

1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default;
2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.

Why do you think that translates into Ireland lobbying to give us a cakeist deal, rather than Ireland lobbying to enforce the spirit of the phase one agreement, no matter what the domestic political cost in the UK is.

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.

Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.

Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!

The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.

Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.

Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!

The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.

But the Canada deal does, as Pulpstar pointed out below?

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

We should conduct an experiment.

We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.

Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.

After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

Utter rubbish. The overwhelming majority of Tory voters want to end free movement, it is actually leaving it in place that would threaten the Tory Party and see mass defections to UKIP.

We should still get a FTA and end free movement but in a straight choice between the two the Tories have no alternative but to prioritise the latter.

You are also incorrect too, historically the Liberals have supported free trade for longer than the Tories have, at times the Tories have backed tariffs

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

A failure is a failure, whatever the excuse.

Remember, plenty of leavers told us how easy getting a deal would be, how the EU needs us more, etc. etc.. All those interview clips are still on file.

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?

The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.

*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.

The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place

That's a long time ago.

The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:

1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default;
2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.

Why do you think that translates into Ireland lobbying to give us a cakeist deal, rather than Ireland lobbying to enforce the spirit of the phase one agreement, no matter what the domestic political cost in the UK is.

1. Most Irish road exports to Europe go via the UK. Fewer barriers is better.
2. The N Irish border issue isn't entirely settled: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed etc. Driving too hard could drive the talks off the road and unravel phase 1.

In phase 1, Ireland had an incentive to push hard for a soft Brexit and it was supported by the Commission, who saw that solution as consistent with the integrity of the SM etc. Having banked that, it now has something to lose.

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.

Why should the EU change its rules?

Because it might want to retain it's huge trade surplus ?

The EU27 are 27 individual countries. As noted on here many times, there is no EU-wide demos. Given that, the most important thing for the EU as a whole is to maintain its current rules and structures. If you start messing around with them too much, you run the risk of the whole thing falling to pieces. The leeway the UK got inside the EU was exceptional. With us outside, there is no reason to give us any preferential treatment.

LOL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany

Number 1 exports: US
Number 1 imports: China

Number of deals with either of them that compromise the single market: Zero

So FTAs aren't actually that important after all?

Not for manufactured goods! Agriculture and services are a bit different though.

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Around 2/3 of British Lamb is exported, mostly to the EU. It is possible in the longterm to switch produce, but it would take years. In the meantime best not invest in sheep.

That will make Lamb expensive in EU and cheaper in UK

david_herdson said:

williamglenn said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?

The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.

*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.

The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place

That's a long time ago.

The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:

1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default;
2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.

Why do you think that translates into Ireland lobbying to give us a cakeist deal, rather than Ireland lobbying to enforce the spirit of the phase one agreement, no matter what the domestic political cost in the UK is.

1. Most Irish road exports to Europe go via the UK. Fewer barriers is better.
2. The N Irish border issue isn't entirely settled: nothing is agreed until everything is agreed etc. Driving too hard could drive the talks off the road and unravel phase 1.

In phase 1, Ireland had an incentive to push hard for a soft Brexit and it was supported by the Commission, who saw that solution as consistent with the integrity of the SM etc. Having banked that, it now has something to lose.

So Ireland has banked a soft Brexit, which it risks losing if it doesn't now agree to a harder Brexit? Your position is an incoherent as the cabinet's.

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.

Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.

Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.

Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!

FF43 is wrong. Both FTA and WTO are better for farmers in every sector than the current arrangements as long as there is no change to subsidies.

How's about that then:

https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/943121661146132480

LOL. Fat chance of that happening. Besides you are the one who keeps saying that the EU will not allow any picking and choosing. We are talking about reality here not your fantasies.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

We should conduct an experiment.

We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.

Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.

After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.

Only if Leaverstan are allowed to have a proper border with Remainerstan. Then where will you get your workers? Or your food, your power, your water?

hamiltonace said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.

Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.

Well since you are saying that the only alternative is no Brexit I would suggest you are screwed.

Richard_Tyndall said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.

Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.

Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Not true

The study is here:

https://www.nfuonline.com/assets/61142

If you look at the Figure ES1 on page 7 it shows the results for farm income for various scenarios with various amounts of direct subsidy.

For both FTA and WTO with the existing levels of subsidy every single sector including sheep and goats is better off (1st and 4th bars on each graph.) The only way it is worse off is with the removal of tariffs (Trade Liberalisation).

It's worth pointing out that this is only looking at income for farmers - not considering the availability of labour which will be a big factor I think.

It also doesn't consider any exchange rate effects - which so far have been presumably been positive for British farmers since their competitors have become more expensive in the UK, and their exports have become cheaper abroad.

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.

Why should the EU change its rules?

Because it might want to retain it's huge trade surplus ?

The EU27 are 27 individual countries. As noted on here many times, there is no EU-wide demos. Given that, the most important thing for the EU as a whole is to maintain its current rules and structures. If you start messing around with them too much, you run the risk of the whole thing falling to pieces. The leeway the UK got inside the EU was exceptional. With us outside, there is no reason to give us any preferential treatment.

LOL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany

Number 1 exports: US
Number 1 imports: China

Number of deals with either of them that compromise the single market: Zero

So FTAs aren't actually that important after all?

Not for manufactured goods! Agriculture and services are a bit different though.

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Around 2/3 of British Lamb is exported, mostly to the EU. It is possible in the longterm to switch produce, but it would take years. In the meantime best not invest in sheep.

Clearly you are another one who likes to just imagine things rather than actually listening to the people are in the business.

rkrkrk said:

Charles said:

What's more concerning is the cultural change and sense of entitlement. For example in the case that @Sandpit gave earlier: 30 years ago virtually no one would have thought that acceptable behaviour - now people nod and shrug

I think it’s gone the other way entirely.
The outrage level over benefits cheats is surely as high as it’s ever been.

As SO pointed out - a while back people didn’t mind you waiting for a job in your field - that’s all changed now. The stigma around being on benefits is huge.

I agree outrage has gone higher than ever before - there's a feedback loop.

My point was different: that virtually no higher rate taxpayer would have even dreamt of living with someone claiming single mother benefits, renting out their own house, and pocketing the difference.

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?

The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.

*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.

The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place

That's a long time ago.

The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:

1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default;
2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.

Yougov in September found the French wanted the UK to leave the EU by an even bigger margin than the British.

Most Germans, Danes, Finns and Swedes wanted the UK to stay.

The French still hate us as much as they always have (and much that I love France)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-french-people-uk-leave-eu-stay-franch-european-union-a7929156.html

That would be a more pertinent point then than what happened in 1963 or 1967.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

A failure is a failure, whatever the excuse.

Remember, plenty of leavers told us how easy getting a deal would be, how the EU needs us more, etc. etc.. All those interview clips are still on file.

So what? Most Leavers voted Leave to end free movement in large part if they cannot get a FTA and do that WTO terms it is then

Once again you're just going to have to be patient.

Free movement will end as long as we have a Tory PM and most likely in the short term under a Labour one too

felix said:

malcolmg said:

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The problem those in the liberal centre have is that they understand that this is a complicated world and that solutions to its inequalities are not easy to find - and even less easier to condense into Tweets and Facebook memes. People like Trump have no such issues and no great attachment to democracy, so do not worry about being dishonest. They will say whatever it takes. But in the end they will either lose power, because their solutions do not work; or they will need to engineer power grabs that allow them to stay in charge even when voters do not want them to.

Neither the liberals or the authoritarians are going to help the left behind people. The liberals will plonk them all on benefits and tell them to shut up, the authoritarians will cause long term issues that will end up doing more harm than good. The only difference is that one side is proposing jobs today, the other has given up. Worse is that the liberals are happy to allow multinational companies to benefit from Western markets (prices, stability) but use eastern labour (cost effective) and let the companies hold on to the huge gains they have made in the process. On the other side of the fence they are at least trying to ensure companies pay their way, even though restrictive trade practices will be harmful.

I am not so sure. If I look at the world's happiest and most prosperous countries I see countries where the liberal centre is in charge. I also see tax reform becoming a much bigger issue. It will take time and it will take international coordination - and we can expect the US to play no part (and the UK, too, post-Brexit), but it is going to happen. In the end, if there is democracy, the liberal centre - right or left, back and forth - will prevail because it is where most people sit. There are convulsions from time to time, but eventually everything reverts to the norm - unless guns prevent it.

The UK is one of the world's happiest and most prosperous countries.

What planet you on

Nowt happier than a grumpy old malcG

I am a ray of sunshine felix, despite the nasty tories best efforts

Richard_Tyndall said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.

Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.

Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!

FF43 is wrong. Both FTA and WTO are better for farmers in every sector than the current arrangements as long as there is no change to subsidies.

Not me wrong in that case - the NFU would be wrong. Given you cite the NFU as gospel that would be VERY strange! The NFU document I quoted, and which you clearly didn't read, is an update to the one from before the referendum that you linked.

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

david_herdson said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

I am unsure of Barnier's purpose in leaking this slide. Is it to set expectations of a very mediocre deal for the UK or is it to encourage the UK to ease its red lines so it can get a more ambitious deal?

The signals coming from the EU are mixed. It seems some want a clean break with a quick and crap deal for the UK, while others want to keep the UK in the EU system and will prevaricate if it achieves our subservience.The Irish are in the second camp, while I think the Germans are more in the first.

*PS what no-one in the EU will accept is delay that increases our cake, ie what May wants.

The French are more in the first, the Germans less so. After all the French vetoed our EEC entry in the first place

That's a long time ago.

The crucial point at the moment is that Germany has an unstable and distracted government. What that means is:

1. The Council lacks strong leadership, meaning that the Commission has greater latitude by default;
2. Those countries which really care about Brexit - Ireland, mainly - will be listened to more than would otherwise be the case.

Yougov in September found the French wanted the UK to leave the EU by an even bigger margin than the British.

Most Germans, Danes, Finns and Swedes wanted the UK to stay.

The French still hate us as much as they always have (and much that I love France)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-news-french-people-uk-leave-eu-stay-franch-european-union-a7929156.html

That would be a more pertinent point then than what happened in 1963 or 1967.

We have not fought more wars against France than any other nation on earth for nothing

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.
Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

The Irish border issue was effectively settled last week, if it had not been we would not have been allowed to move to FTA talks with the EU

joke of the day

I have come to the conclusion that Mr HYUFD belongs to the Pangloss group of Conservatives. A distinguished previous member was Neville Chamberlain.

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

We should conduct an experiment.

We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.

Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.

After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.

Only if Leaverstan are allowed to have a proper border with Remainerstan. Then where will you get your workers? Or your food, your power, your water?

Import them all?

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

hamiltonace said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

For the medical industry there are only 2 options (no brexit, hard brexit). The dividing line is switzerland which is no brexit and ukraine which is hard brexit. The hard brexit will be very hard. Medical device companies such as mine will have to decide if we want to continue supplying the UK market under whatever rules the MHRA now decides we must meet. We will still be able to ship to Europe as long as we accept their regulations but will have customs duties which will slow down shipments and add costs.

Twice a week someone from Galway drives product over to us waits while we process it and then drives back. This will probably be illegal in the hard Brexit future without all sorts of paperwork but who exactly is going to stop him? I can tell you he is the type of Irish guy who is not going to waste hours of his life without serious encouragement such as a man with a gun. These are the practicalities that the hard brexiters need to think about.

Switzerland is not a member of the EMA.

Amazingly I can get whatever medicine I want.

I genuinely don't understand this idea that there is no life after the EU. Other countries have been fine on the outside.

As williamglenn always says - time to accept our place at the heart of Europe and all that comes with it (including the euro). There is no alternative..etc

geoffw said:

RobD said:

Here's an updated one with a table on changes of prices:

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Looks like the only negative scenario would be if HMG decide to cut all subsidies etc. unilaterally.

Unilateral trade liberalisation clearly the best for consumers.

It would be.

And it is the job of the government to work on behalf of consumers, not producers.

But it wouldn't be a popular move in farming communities that were reliable votes for both the Conservatives and Brexit.

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.

Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.

Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!

The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.

But the Canada deal does, as Pulpstar pointed out below?

The Canada deal is subject to tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for agricultural produce. This allows you to import a certain amount of produce at a lower rate. Anything above the quota, which is set once for the entire EU incurs tariffs at prohibitive rates. There are TRQs on MFN imports, ie imports that don't benefit from a preferential trade arrangement.

Charles said:

rkrkrk said:

Charles said:

What's more concerning is the cultural change and sense of entitlement. For example in the case that @Sandpit gave earlier: 30 years ago virtually no one would have thought that acceptable behaviour - now people nod and shrug

I think it’s gone the other way entirely.
The outrage level over benefits cheats is surely as high as it’s ever been.

As SO pointed out - a while back people didn’t mind you waiting for a job in your field - that’s all changed now. The stigma around being on benefits is huge.

I agree outrage has gone higher than ever before - there's a feedback loop.

My point was different: that virtually no higher rate taxpayer would have even dreamt of living with someone claiming single mother benefits, renting out their own house, and pocketing the difference.

I don't think you're right about that at all - your example would be absolutely condemned nowadays, and I am confident stories like that used to happen thirty years ago.

TGOHF said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.

Ending free movement will make little difference at the bottom end - people will still come to do the kind of jobs that eastern Europeans living 10 to a room for a couple of years are prepared to do and locals are not. The issue will be much more about skilled workers. Why bother with the red tape and short-term nature of a work permit when you can just move to 27 other countries with no problem at all - especially when the Home Office has proved time and again that it is not fit for purpose when it comes to immigration control? It'll be the tech workers we so desperately need more of, the doctors, the academics and the others who have a choice of places to move that we lose out on. And that will be a shame.

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

FF43 said:

RobD said:

It'd be interesting to read the NFU study that Richard_Tyndall mentioned which said any scenario outside of the EU would be better for agricultural trade than staying in.

Not better under any scenario. Better for some farmers under some scenarios.

Outside CAP , we would be between columns 2 and 3. The more trade deals we have with third parties the more column 3 would apply than column 2. Which suggests we might not be doing many of these deals.

Very bad news for sheep farmers under any scenario and somewhat bad for crops. Other farmers, it depends. They could do well out of Brexit or badly.

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/latest-modelling-shows-impacts-of-different-brexit-deals42974/

Very bad news under any scenario? The first one is no change!

The chance of the UK securing a free trade agreement with the EU including primary agricultural produce, which is more favourable to it than membership of the EU, is 0%. Not approximately 0%. Actually 0%. Bear in mind the super-integrated Norwegian EEA doesn't include agricultural produce.

But the Canada deal does, as Pulpstar pointed out below?

The Canada deal is subject to tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for agricultural produce. This allows you to import a certain amount of produce at a lower rate. Anything above the quota, which is set once for the entire EU incurs tariffs at prohibitive rates. There are TRQs on MFN imports, ie imports that don't benefit from a preferential trade arrangement.

So I expect trade will continue between the UK and the EU after Brexit, with a lot of it under then lower rate. Aren't the quota applied to the countries exporting to the EU individually, rather than being the same for everyone? The total quota is set, but the allocation between the countries is different.

malcolmg said:

John_M said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

The problem those in the liberal centre have is that they understand that this is a complicated world and that solutions to its inequalities are not easy to find - and even less easier to condense into Tweets and Facebook memes. People like Trump have no such issues and no great attachment to democracy, so do not worry about being dishonest. They will say whatever it takes. But in the end they will either lose power, because their solutions do not work; or they will need to engineer power grabs that allow them to stay in charge even when voters do not want them to.

Neither the liberals or the authoritarians are going to help the left behind people. The liberals will plonk them all on benefits and tell them to shut up, the authoritarians will cause long term issues that will end up doing more harm than good. The only difference is that one side is proposing jobs today, the other has given up. Worse is that the liberals are happy to allow multinational companies to benefit from Western markets (prices, stability) but use eastern labour (cost effective) and let the companies hold on to the huge gains they have made in the process. On the other side of the fence they are at least trying to ensure companies pay their way, even though restrictive trade practices will be harmful.

I am not so sure. If I look at the world's happiest and most prosperous countries I see countries where the liberal centre is in charge. I also see tax reform becoming a much bigger issue. It will take time and it will take international coordination - and we can expect the US to play no part (and the UK, too, post-Brexit), but it is going to happen. In the end, if there is democracy, the liberal centre - right or left, back and forth - will prevail because it is where most people sit. There are convulsions from time to time, but eventually everything reverts to the norm - unless guns prevent it.

The UK is one of the world's happiest and most prosperous countries.

What planet you on

The planet where we're happier than the French, which we should be able to agree is the best thing in life.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Happiness_Report#2017_World_Happiness_Report

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

TGOHF said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

Stopping free movement doesn't mean no movement. It means there are rules rather than a free for all.

Ending free movement will make little difference at the bottom end - people will still come to do the kind of jobs that eastern Europeans living 10 to a room for a couple of years are prepared to do and locals are not. The issue will be much more about skilled workers. Why bother with the red tape and short-term nature of a work permit when you can just move to 27 other countries with no problem at all - especially when the Home Office has proved time and again that it is not fit for purpose when it comes to immigration control? It'll be the tech workers we so desperately need more of, the doctors, the academics and the others who have a choice of places to move that we lose out on. And that will be a shame.

Nonsense - the govt of the day will be able to set the rules and will be responsible for their enforcement - that is the essence of taking back control.

Not the unfettered chaotic free for all that is happening all over the EU.

I am sorry you did not understand my post.

NEW THREAD

MaxPB said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

Seems like the EU has a big red line - services in the FTA.

Wants its cake of being able to ship goods and the money but is totally inflexible on financial services.

Looks like their intransigence will earn them a hard Brexit.

Except it won't, not least because:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/943067653341696000

Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. If we hard Brexit then the agreement falls.

Get real. The government will be crucified if they come away with no deal. Whatever the Tory nutters might say.

Not if leaving free movement in is the price of that deal, though it seems not to be

Stopping free movement, if that required WTO, will be the end of the Tory Party. The party of business and free trade applying a policy which stops dead a significant portion of industry and sees basic foodstuffs short in supply and significantly more expensive would be the end.

Again, the "WTO will be alright" nutters are betting they know more about making airbus wings than GKN, or more about producing food than the people who import it grow it process it wholesale it sell it.

The level of pig-ignorant arrogance is astounding.

We should conduct an experiment.

We should partition the UK into Remainerstan and Leaverstan.

Remainerstan remains in the EU whilst Leaverstan goes full WTO.

After 5 years or so we should see which is the success.

Only if Leaverstan are allowed to have a proper border with Remainerstan. Then where will you get your workers? Or your food, your power, your water?

Import them all?

Yep. And we would make them pay punitive tariffs )

SouthamObserver said:

david_herdson said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/jennifermerode/status/943037113406238720

It also shows how EU red lines result in that. It doesn't state them but they're implicit in the arrows. Nowhere are the EU's principles up for discussion. Let's not just blame one side in this.

Why should the EU change its rules? We are the ones leaving and it is our government that has chosen to interpret the referendum result in the way that it has. There are consequences to decisions made at the ballot box and in the Cabinet room, and the people who took them have responsibility for them.

A. 50 envisages that a country may leave the EU, and that both the leaving country, and the EU, will negotiate in good faith.

We are breaking no obligations to the EU or its member States by leaving.

Nou Fil