politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lea
Yesterday I highlighted the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the first full voting intention survey since Osborn’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. That had the CON lead down to 5%.
Comments
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"Yougov had CON lead down to 5%." My god, the PB Hodges would have been euphoric.
In other news another poll showing Labour in the 40's.
Swingback, swingback, my kingdom for my swingback.
Tic toc tic toc......I think Messina and Crosby are doing a mighty fine job.0 -
Headline has Labour lead +4 and the pie chart +3 – is that right ?0
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Labour +3 Con -1 = +4SimonStClare said:Headline has Labour lead +4 and the pie chart +3 – is that right ?
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Can we have Compouter seized for propagating a polling joke?compouter1 said:"Yougov had CON lead down to 5%." My god, the PB Hodges would have been euphoric.
In other news another poll showing Labour in the 40's.
Swingback, swingback, my kingdom for my swingback.
Tic Toc.
The DNS swab might indicate a direct connection to Ash.
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Populus swings erratically from poll to poll, perhaps because the UKIP rating is the main movement in other polls and it seems consistently low here.0
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ARF!!!AveryLP said:
Can we have Compouter seized for propagating a polling joke?compouter1 said:"Yougov had CON lead down to 5%." My god, the PB Hodges would have been euphoric.
In other news another poll showing Labour in the 40's.
Swingback, swingback, my kingdom for my swingback.
Tic Toc.
The DNS swab might indicate a direct connection to Ash.0 -
Somewhere down the line between now and the election someone in Tory HQ will point the finger at Crosby and Messina and say "What the hell are we paying these two hundreds of thousand of pound for"?
Surely?0 -
Are Crosby and Messina the Carrol and Torres of the politics world? Pre-signing a big reputation, post signing....duffers.0
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I don't think Messina has much to do with it, he only does a phone call once a week or something.compouter1 said:Somewhere down the line between now and the election someone in Tory HQ will point the finger at Crosby and Messina and say "What the hell are we paying these two hundreds of thousand of pound for"?
Surely?0 -
Cheers - memo to self, more thought before posting.compouter1 said:
Labour +3 Con -1 = +4SimonStClare said:Headline has Labour lead +4 and the pie chart +3 – is that right ?
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I read that as Crosby and Messina being very overweight!compouter1 said:Somewhere down the line between now and the election someone in Tory HQ will point the finger at Crosby and Messina and say "What the hell are we paying these two hundreds of thousand of pound for"?
Surely?
Then again I just read the Telegraph article that @TGOHF linked to on the last thread, and I barely understood a word of it, so maybe its me0 -
Pie chart has Labour share +3, but Tories are -1 so Labour lead is +4.SimonStClare said:Headline has Labour lead +4 and the pie chart +3 – is that right ?
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Now that is a job I want, hundreds of thousands a pound a year. No turning up to work and deliver bad advice by phone. Jealous.edmundintokyo said:
I don't think Messina has much to do with it, he only does a phone call once a week or something.compouter1 said:Somewhere down the line between now and the election someone in Tory HQ will point the finger at Crosby and Messina and say "What the hell are we paying these two hundreds of thousand of pound for"?
Surely?0 -
Can we have Nick Palmer internally body searched for a Labour economic policy ??
Although you can definitely pass the marigold gloves to some other lucky PBer !!
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Populus's polls show no material movement since July when compared on an average month by month basis.
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.0 -
The political Torres and Carrol couldn't score in a brother with a £50 stuck to their head.Verulamius said:Populus's polls show no material movement since July when compared on an average month by month basis.
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.0 -
...and how does one go about scoring in a brother?compouter1 said:
The political Torres and Carrol couldn't score in a brother with a £50 stuck to their head.Verulamius said:Populus's polls show no material movement since July when compared on an average month by month basis.
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.0 -
Oh dear....http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/johnmcternan1/100249444/iain-duncan-smith-joseph-stalin-or-humpty-dumpty/
Number 10 has had to step in to shore up support "Downing St has backed Iain Duncan Smith amid criticism over delays to the introduction of Universal Credit, insisting the transition is a "gradual process"
"The Secretary of State is leading this very important programme of welfare reform, which is so important to the economy and is the right thing to do..It's designed to be a gradual process," a spokesman said."0 -
https://www.facebook.com/pages/You-couldnt-score-in-a-brothel/252150389948Patrick said:
...and how does one go about scoring in a brother?compouter1 said:
The political Torres and Carrol couldn't score in a brother with a £50 stuck to their head.Verulamius said:Populus's polls show no material movement since July when compared on an average month by month basis.
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.
If you are still struggling : http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_Score_in_a_brothel_you_couldn't_score_in_a_brothel_mean_is_it_a_part_of_some_song_why_are_the_football_fans_singing_that#slide30 -
A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?0
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I think they were referring to your typo, spelling it as 'brother'.compouter1 said:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/You-couldnt-score-in-a-brothel/252150389948Patrick said:
...and how does one go about scoring in a brother?compouter1 said:
The political Torres and Carrol couldn't score in a brother with a £50 stuck to their head.Verulamius said:Populus's polls show no material movement since July when compared on an average month by month basis.
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.
If you are still struggling : http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_Score_in_a_brothel_you_couldn't_score_in_a_brothel_mean_is_it_a_part_of_some_song_why_are_the_football_fans_singing_that#slide30 -
Just found out that Vitali Klitschko, of boxing fame, is now a senior opposition politician in Ukraine.
Should the tories approach David Haye?
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Has anyone seen SeanT lately?
After reading of the unfunny joke fellow being arrested I fear for his non-blog about Mandela Mr. T might've been tried in a secret court and presently be languishing for an indeterminate period in a jail cell in an unspecified location.
Hmm. I did mean this to be amusing, but it's probably not far enough away from reality. That's a bit depressing.0 -
Ssshhh....it will all turn around, swingback, the economy will win it for them, the polls are wrong, UKIP will get 4%, Ed is crap, Balls is crap, Gideon is and economic wonder god.....I am with them, Lynton Crosby will sort them, the voters are in denial, when they get in the polling booth and see the parties, they will then vote Tory, Messina will sort them, look at the polling predictions from that man will all the equations, "we are gliding to victory", Dan tells us we are swinging back in the marginals,this is only a minor *ahem* short term blip........the vast majority on here believe it, leave them to it.Quincel said:A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?
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Quincel said:
A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?
I think it's way too soon to tell and polls now are fairly meaningless - they show the electorate is pretty p****d with all parties but the govt takes the most flak as you'd expect. It's clear they're very nervous about Labour and have little confidence in either Ed - as otherwise Labour would be out of the park by now. They do have the bolster of 2010 LD votes but it's not clear yet that they'll be there in 2015. As for UKIP I think that is mostly protest votes now many of which will return home in 2015 or more likely not vote.
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What utter bounders.Quincel said:
I think they were referring to your typo, spelling it as 'brother'.compouter1 said:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/You-couldnt-score-in-a-brothel/252150389948Patrick said:
...and how does one go about scoring in a brother?compouter1 said:
The political Torres and Carrol couldn't score in a brother with a £50 stuck to their head.Verulamius said:Populus's polls show no material movement since July when compared on an average month by month basis.
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.
If you are still struggling : http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_Score_in_a_brothel_you_couldn't_score_in_a_brothel_mean_is_it_a_part_of_some_song_why_are_the_football_fans_singing_that#slide30 -
Compouter1,
If we're being picky, Andy Carroll has two Ls.
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Probably just MOE. The two voting blocs seem pretty stable and although 'shifts' of this nature excite political geeks it is most probably just normal variation.
The rock-solid 39/32 split probably lives on.0 -
compouter1 said:
Ssshhh....it will all turn around, swingback, the economy will win it for them, the polls are wrong, UKIP will get 4%, Ed is crap, Balls is crap, Gideon is and economic wonder god.....I am with them, Lynton Crosby will sort them, the voters are in denial, when they get in the polling booth and see the parties they will vote Tory, Messina will sort them, look at the polling predictions from that man will all the equations, "we are gliding to victory", Dan tells us we are swinging back in the marginals,this is only a minor *ahem* short term blip........I am with them, the vast majority on here believe it, leave them to it.Quincel said:A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?
Good lord - a trolled up version of Tim - whatever next.0 -
That's fair enough, I'm just curious as to at what point you think the polls do become useful. If in December 2014 Populus publishes a poll like this one will you have the same thoughts, for example?felix said:Quincel said:A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?
I think it's way too soon to tell and polls now are fairly meaningless - they show the electorate is pretty p****d with all parties but the govt takes the most flak as you'd expect. It's clear they're very nervous about Labour and have little confidence in either Ed - as otherwise Labour would be out of the park by now. They do have the bolster of 2010 LD votes but it's not clear yet that they'll be there in 2015. As for UKIP I think that is mostly protest votes now many of which will return home in 2015 or more likely not vote.0 -
He has more Ls than goals this season.CD13 said:Compouter1,
If we're being picky, Andy Carroll has two Ls.0 -
Oi! Andy Carroll's form is not the problem; it's that we never see him play yet BFS builds the whole team around him. COYI.compouter1 said:Are Crosby and Messina the Carrol and Torres of the politics world? Pre-signing a big reputation, post signing....duffers.
Crosby though is a conundrum. What do people see in the man who led Howard to ridicule and defeat, saw Boris scrape home against a tired and discredited Ken, and whose dog-whistles to the right alienate the centre?
(And surely the whole point of a dog-whistle is that only dogs can hear it? That you appeal to UKIP without the centrists noticing? Classic examples include Bush deflecting criticism by saying "that's a comma" where only the committed Christian right recognised the allusion, and living on a ranch (since sold).)
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Good lord indeed.felix said:compouter1 said:
Ssshhh....it will all turn around, swingback, the economy will win it for them, the polls are wrong, UKIP will get 4%, Ed is crap, Balls is crap, Gideon is and economic wonder god.....I am with them, Lynton Crosby will sort them, the voters are in denial, when they get in the polling booth and see the parties they will vote Tory, Messina will sort them, look at the polling predictions from that man will all the equations, "we are gliding to victory", Dan tells us we are swinging back in the marginals,this is only a minor *ahem* short term blip........I am with them, the vast majority on here believe it, leave them to it.Quincel said:A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?
Good lord - a trolled up version of Tim - whatever next.0 -
UKIP don't really need to invest any money in someone such as Crosby to provide them with a dog whistle as Crosby does it for them.DecrepitJohnL said:
Oi! Andy Carroll's form is not the problem; it's that we never see him play yet BFS builds the whole team around him. COYI.compouter1 said:Are Crosby and Messina the Carrol and Torres of the politics world? Pre-signing a big reputation, post signing....duffers.
Crosby though is a conundrum. What do people see in the man who led Howard to ridicule and defeat, saw Boris scrape home against a tired and discredited Ken, and whose dog-whistles to the right alienate the centre?
(And surely the whole point of a dog-whistle is that only dogs can hear it? That you appeal to UKIP without the centrists noticing? Classic examples include Bush deflecting criticism by saying "that's a comma" where only the committed Christian right recognised the allusion, and living on a ranch (since sold).)
With regards The Irons, I don't think I have ever seen a team play for so long without a centre forward. I amazed they have got the points they have so far.0 -
Quincel said:
That's fair enough, I'm just curious as to at what point you think the polls do become useful. If in December 2014 Populus publishes a poll like this one will you have the same thoughts, for example?felix said:Quincel said:A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?
I think it's way too soon to tell and polls now are fairly meaningless - they show the electorate is pretty p****d with all parties but the govt takes the most flak as you'd expect. It's clear they're very nervous about Labour and have little confidence in either Ed - as otherwise Labour would be out of the park by now. They do have the bolster of 2010 LD votes but it's not clear yet that they'll be there in 2015. As for UKIP I think that is mostly protest votes now many of which will return home in 2015 or more likely not vote.
I would certainly not get over excited by one polling company at almost anytime - even in a year's time there'd need to be evidence of clear trend. One additional thought I'm not sure when push comes to shove that the electorate would go for a Miliband/Balls offering given their lack of economic credibility - but this may not show up till very late in the day. Clearly the voters hate austerity and all it has brought but I think deep down they know you can't live on credit forever.0 -
Crosby though is a conundrum.
Only for the left. Nobody on the right mentions Crosby.
The left are obsessed by him.0 -
The left are obsessed by smear and personality - it's what happens when you cannot debate the economy. They are also obsessed by polls, because they're afraid of what will happen in the polling booth.taffys said:Crosby though is a conundrum.
Only for the left. Nobody on the right mentions Crosby.
The left are obsessed by him.0 -
Talking of scoring in a brothe[l], here is a YouTube video which I urge all PBers to watch.Patrick said:
...and how does one go about scoring in a brother?compouter1 said:
The political Torres and Carrol couldn't score in a brother with a £50 stuck to their head.Verulamius said:Populus's polls show no material movement since July when compared on an average month by month basis.
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.
Roger would have been proud to have filmed it.
No spoilers, but do watch to the end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-a8dAHDQoo0 -
I hope he stays in the Tory Party as long as possible. They could be using the money on something more useful.felix said:
The left are obsessed by smear and personality - it's what happens when you cannot debate the economy. They are also obsessed by polls, because they're afraid of what will happen in the polling booth.taffys said:Crosby though is a conundrum.
Only for the left. Nobody on the right mentions Crosby.
The left are obsessed by him.
Speaking of polls, why is it polls are only dissected microscopically when they are good for a certain party on here. I assume you would be ignoring the polls if say the Tory Party were on 40% then?0 -
The Conservative case for PR in local elections...
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file/Northern Blues 7 Nov PUBLISH.pdf0 -
If you look carefully you will note that the current polls have barely changed in months - indeed if anything over the past year the Labour lead is down. I have not dissected any single polls on here but trolls do - on both sides - treat individual polls as if they were the ten commandments. Given that we are mid-term and recovering from the worst economic mess since the 1930's generally the current position is quite healthy for the govt. If you and other left-wingers were so confident of your position you'd be rather quieter - like me lurking a lot and posting a little.compouter1 said:
I hope he stays in the Tory Party as long as possible. They could be using the money on something more useful.felix said:
The left are obsessed by smear and personality - it's what happens when you cannot debate the economy. They are also obsessed by polls, because they're afraid of what will happen in the polling booth.taffys said:Crosby though is a conundrum.
Only for the left. Nobody on the right mentions Crosby.
The left are obsessed by him.
Speaking of polls, why is it polls are only dissected microscopically when they are good for a certain party on here. I assume you would be ignoring the polls if say the Tory Party were on 40% then?0 -
Well you learn something every day, under PR the Tory Party would have four councillors in Knowsley.RodCrosby said:The Conservative case for PR in local elections...
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file/Northern Blues 7 Nov PUBLISH.pdf0 -
Usual caveats, blah, blah, blah.
2010 Lib Dems:
Lab 38%
LD 37%
Con 9%
Grn 7%
UKIP 5%
SNP 1%
Gender split:
Female: 44% Lab 30% Con
Male: 38% Lab 36% Con
Scottish split:
Lab 34%
SNP 32%
Con 16%
LD 8%
UKIP 6%
Grn 3%
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Online_VI_09-12-2013_BPC.pdf0 -
The correct figure for 2010 Lib Dems as per Table 2 isStuart_Dickson said:Usual caveats, blah, blah, blah.
2010 Lib Dems:
Lab 38%
LD 37%
Con 9%
Grn 7%
UKIP 5%
SNP 1%
Gender split:
Female: 44% Lab 30% Con
Male: 38% Lab 36% Con
Scottish split:
Lab 34%
SNP 32%
Con 16%
LD 8%
UKIP 6%
Grn 3%
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Online_VI_09-12-2013_BPC.pdf
Lab 29%
LD 30%
Con 8%
UKIP 4%
SNP 1%
Green 6%
Others 1%
DK/WNV 21%
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0
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Twitter.com/EvidenceUK/status/407842549458411520/photo/1/largecurrystar said:
What evidence do you have that school standards improved under Labour, making exams easier to pass does not mean school standards are rising.BenM said:
School standards definitely improved under Labour - you need to understand how disastrous standards were under the last Tory government (and PISA was not around then, conveniently).JosiasJessop said:
We were already in reverse under Labour - see the results. It is obvious that despite the mantra of 'education, education, education', the schools were getting worse and not equipping our children with the skills they need.BenM said:
Gove and pals were shouting about how they were fixing that.john_zims said:@BenM
And Labour's state education legacy......a stunning bottom of the global league.
'Research by the respected Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) found that 16- to 24-year-olds lag close to the bottom of global league tables in literacy and numeracy.
According to figures, England is ranked 22nd out of 24 western countries in terms of literacy and 21st for numeracy – being outperformed by nations such as Estonia, Poland and Slovakia.'
Looks like we're going tinto reverse in Education under the Tories. Again.
If something is failing to such a degree, it is worth trying a different approach. Just because it fails in one place, does not mean the same concepts applied differently will not work. But it is a worrying indication.
But a return to the 1997-2010 status quo is also not an option.
And what people outside the Tory bubble fear from Tory meddling in education is that kind of slump again.
History did not start in 1997.0 -
George Osborne clearly hasn't lost his touch.0
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I should state that I am a UKIP member, but I'm beginning to think the UKIP vote won't return home in 2015. I did, or at least that some of it would, but I'm not so sure now.Quincel said:
That's fair enough, I'm just curious as to at what point you think the polls do become useful. If in December 2014 Populus publishes a poll like this one will you have the same thoughts, for example?felix said:Quincel said:A question for the posters who think the Coalition isn't in an electoral situation where panic stations are suitable: If the polls stay roughly as they are, at what point (ie. how little time left) would you say the situation will begin to look really bleak? Personally I was around 15-18 months (hence why I now think the election is almost won for Labour). A year, if the Euros don't shift the polls? Or less?
I think it's way too soon to tell and polls now are fairly meaningless - they show the electorate is pretty p****d with all parties but the govt takes the most flak as you'd expect. It's clear they're very nervous about Labour and have little confidence in either Ed - as otherwise Labour would be out of the park by now. They do have the bolster of 2010 LD votes but it's not clear yet that they'll be there in 2015. As for UKIP I think that is mostly protest votes now many of which will return home in 2015 or more likely not vote.
If the immigration from January next year is more than expected that will play into UKIP hands. Also just not being associated with Westminster at the moment is a bonus, what with the 11% pay rise.
I'm not sure ukip voters care about the "Vote UKIP get Labour" line anymore, who wants Dave anyway?0 -
Are you happy that your party are retaining just 30% of the people who voted for it in 2010 Mark?MarkSenior said:
The correct figure for 2010 Lib Dems as per Table 2 isStuart_Dickson said:Usual caveats, blah, blah, blah.
2010 Lib Dems:
Lab 38%
LD 37%
Con 9%
Grn 7%
UKIP 5%
SNP 1%
Gender split:
Female: 44% Lab 30% Con
Male: 38% Lab 36% Con
Scottish split:
Lab 34%
SNP 32%
Con 16%
LD 8%
UKIP 6%
Grn 3%
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Online_VI_09-12-2013_BPC.pdf
Lab 29%
LD 30%
Con 8%
UKIP 4%
SNP 1%
Green 6%
Others 1%
DK/WNV 21%
(By the way, your figures are no more "correct" or "incorrect" than my figures. You are just reporting different parameters.)0 -
BenM
Thanks for the chart.
Technical question: How do you insert a chart or graphic into a post?0 -
''I'm not sure ukip voters care about the "Vote UKIP get Labour" line anymore, who wants Dave anyway? ''
They don't care at all because they see no difference between labour and the modern tories.
And with reports Milli may be planning to ship in the Blairites to get labour past the election, they may have a point.0 -
I also don't think the "Vote UKIP get Labour" mantra is working anymore. The dislike of Cameron is so high amongst UKIP supporters it seems they want him out more than they don't want Miliband in.
On the other side of the coin, "Vote Lib Dem you will keep Clegg" will connect well with those Lib Dem to Labour switch over voters.0 -
The autumn statement was a technical status update on the economy - with virtually no policies announced that will benefit most of the voters bar retirement age and no more petrol taxes and free school meals (already priced in).
Not surprised it has no positive effect on the numbers.
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Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon7m
I've been parliamentary sketch writer for just two years - yet already I'm having the privilege of hearing a Commons speech by Gordon Brown0 -
Hello all. Quick economics update.
The big news out today is that Japan has revised down its third quarter growth rate, and it appears that Abenomics is not having the desired effect. When 3Q numbers were first released for Japan, they showed a (disappointing) 1.9% annualised growth rate. That has now been cut to 1.1%. The question is does this mean that money printing is an inefficient way of getting an economy growing, or is this just a blip? Just to put the scale of the money printing in context, the Japanese monetary base has leapt 52.5% in the last twelve months.
(Intriguingly, Japan now runs a significant, and growing, trade deficit.) Given Japanese-debt-to-GDP is c. 240% this could all turn fairly nasty. It is also a salutary reminder that without meaningful reform and liberalisation, money printing on its own is not enough.0 -
No , of course I am not happy with retaining just 30% of 2010 Lib Dem voters , nor was I happy in early 2009 when ICM polls were showing us retaining only 50 to 55% of 2005 Lib Dem voters but things did change .Stuart_Dickson said:
Are you happy that your party are retaining just 30% of the people who voted for it in 2010 Mark?MarkSenior said:
The correct figure for 2010 Lib Dems as per Table 2 isStuart_Dickson said:Usual caveats, blah, blah, blah.
2010 Lib Dems:
Lab 38%
LD 37%
Con 9%
Grn 7%
UKIP 5%
SNP 1%
Gender split:
Female: 44% Lab 30% Con
Male: 38% Lab 36% Con
Scottish split:
Lab 34%
SNP 32%
Con 16%
LD 8%
UKIP 6%
Grn 3%
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Online_VI_09-12-2013_BPC.pdf
Lab 29%
LD 30%
Con 8%
UKIP 4%
SNP 1%
Green 6%
Others 1%
DK/WNV 21%
(By the way, your figures are no more "correct" or "incorrect" than my figures. You are just reporting different parameters.)0 -
You can always rely on some things on PB...tim said:@paulwaugh: Not entirely sure No10 thought through @David_Cameron tweeting about "Little Ant & Little Dec" during Mandela tribute http://t.co/h7zoDbPOQZ
Given Cameron only became a supporter of sexual and racial equality rather late in life it seems fitting somehow
Patrick O'Flynn@oflynnexpress1m
People trying too hard to be offended at No10 putting out a tweet about something not Mandela-related IMO.0 -
What a waste of a days parly time - seriously bills etc get timed out and we have a day of mawk by numbers.Scrapheap_as_was said:Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon7m
I've been parliamentary sketch writer for just two years - yet already I'm having the privilege of hearing a Commons speech by Gordon Brown
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TGOHF you misunderstand the process. Ozzy had a good 'steady as you go' Autumn Statement. Balls had a jaw dropping inept shouty ranty redfaced incoherent reply that had his own side with their head in their hands and several papers speculating he must go. Now the Labour core vote is NEVER more exited than when they can elect an irresponsible spendy chocolate teapot into power and this display of crappiness has got them fizzing at the bunghole. Hence the Labour lead increases.TGOHF said:The autumn statement was a technical status update on the economy - with virtually no policies announced that will benefit most of the voters bar retirement age and no more petrol taxes and free school meals (already priced in).
Not surprised it has no positive effect on the numbers.
Phew - glad I cleared that up!0 -
@BenM The Pearson index is a meta-index that draws on a variety of sources. Only one third of its metrics are related to outputs. In its own words: "Over 60 indicators are included,
structured in three sections: inputs to education (such as education spending, school entrance age, pupil teacher ratio, school life expectancy, teacher salaries, among others), outputs of education (such as cognitive skills measured by international tests such as PISA, literacy rates, graduation rates, unemployment by educational attainment, labour market productivity, among others) and socio-economic environment indicators (social inequality, crime rates, GDP per capita, unemployment, among others). The Data Bank’s indicators were used to create the Index and conduct a correlations exercise.".
The Starting Well index doesn't measure outputs at all.
They should not be used to argue that Britain's educational systems are adequate.0 -
money printing on its own is not enough.
When you put it like that, the yen should be a screaming sell, but I notice it has already given up a good deal of ground in recent months.
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Peter Hain keeping it classy.
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Not so shallow and fake as Timtim said:@Scrapheap
I'm not offended, as ever I'm amused by the shallow fake Dave0 -
Anyone got any bets on Sadiq Khan becoming London Mayor ?
Can I point you to the round box under your desk..0 -
Has he died ?0
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Speaking of shallow and fake..
Simon Carr @simonsketch 33s
Gordon stats from the Commons:
I x 12. My x 4. Me x 2.
Nelson Mandela x 13.
Total: Gordon 18, Mandela 13.
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Whats happened to Sadiq - has he popped his clogs ?TGOHF said:Speaking of shallow and fake..
Simon Carr @simonsketch 33s
Gordon stats from the Commons:
I x 12. My x 4. Me x 2.
Nelson Mandela x 13.
Total: Gordon 18, Mandela 13.
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How many "He" & "His" ?TGOHF said:Speaking of shallow and fake..
Simon Carr @simonsketch 33s
Gordon stats from the Commons:
I x 12. My x 4. Me x 2.
Nelson Mandela x 13.
Total: Gordon 18, Mandela 13.0 -
I his "innocent" school chum just plead guilty to terrorism charges...Pulpstar said:
Whats happened to Sadiq - has he popped his clogs ?TGOHF said:Speaking of shallow and fake..
Simon Carr @simonsketch 33s
Gordon stats from the Commons:
I x 12. My x 4. Me x 2.
Nelson Mandela x 13.
Total: Gordon 18, Mandela 13.0 -
Speccies Xmas present to tim
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/coffee-shots-george-osborne-action-chancellor/
Get the tissues ready ...0 -
The opportunity for the Autumn statement to move many votes was always limited because most of the people interested in the state of the country's accounts already support the government. That opportunity, such as it was, disappeared with the death of Nelson Mandela.
What we are seeing in these polls is the usual noise, exacerbated in the case of Yougov by the preceding poll being anomolous giving Labour an exaggerated read.
From Labour's point of view this is good news. However much damage Balls sustained amongst the Parliamentary party by his abject performance it almost certainly did not reach their supporters, let alone cause them to think again. The clock is indeed ticking and the next potential change point is not obvious.
Drip, drip drip sometimes works but it can take hundreds of years to make a stalagmite.0 -
Is Babar Ahmed pleading guilty as part of a plea bargaining deal ? Those are completely dodgy and distort justice wrt the USA in my book at any rate.0
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http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/dec/06/extradited-british-terror-suspects-babar-ahmadPulpstar said:Is Babar Ahmed pleading guilty as part of a plea bargaining deal ? Those are completely dodgy and distort justice wrt the USA in my book at any rate.
"Two British terror suspects who were extradited to the US after an eight-year legal battle plan to change their pleas to guilty next week, a US court has said."
Suspects no more.
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au contraire. it's half a day when the eejits can't pass some more ill-thought through legislation. Shame it wasn't Mandela month.TGOHF said:
What a waste of a days parly time - seriously bills etc get timed out and we have a day of mawk by numbers.Scrapheap_as_was said:Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon7m
I've been parliamentary sketch writer for just two years - yet already I'm having the privilege of hearing a Commons speech by Gordon Brown0 -
Pathetic.TGOHF said:Speaking of shallow and fake..
Simon Carr @simonsketch 33s
Gordon stats from the Commons:
I x 12. My x 4. Me x 2.
Nelson Mandela x 13.
Total: Gordon 18, Mandela 13.0 -
Why exactly was he extradited to the US, he is not a US citizen and if he made those websites he did so in Tooting I'd imagine. OK So I am holding a betslip for Sadiq Khan so that might be colouring my judgement somewhat but quite honestly the whole thing stinks to high heaven.TGOHF said:
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/dec/06/extradited-british-terror-suspects-babar-ahmadPulpstar said:Is Babar Ahmed pleading guilty as part of a plea bargaining deal ? Those are completely dodgy and distort justice wrt the USA in my book at any rate.
"Two British terror suspects who were extradited to the US after an eight-year legal battle plan to change their pleas to guilty next week, a US court has said."
Suspects no more.0 -
I wonderv how many PB Osborne fetishists dashed off to drool over his pics in theSpeccie, how sad..0
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Tom Clark @guardian_clark 2m
Did Autumn statement do Dave & George any good? Guardian/ICM poll later ...
Is it too obvious?0 -
I must be missing something, precisely how does this story impact Sadiq Khan's mayoral ambitions?0
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I can imagine the Yanks told our two terrorist pals exactly what real life will be like in a 6x 8 cell for 25 years, that tends to sharpen the mind.0
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Talking of Mandela...
Can I suggest two points, both somewhat controversial but which will hopefully not get me arrested.
Firstly, I think it should be recognised that apartheid South Africa (although indisputibly morally repugnant) was, almost uniquely amongst African countries in the 60s-90s a country run by the rule of law. In probably the majority of countries in Africa, and quite possibly in the world, Mandela would simply have disappeared.
Think of the number of South and Central American bullies and dictators that operated in those decades, from the disappeared of Argentina, Chile, Nicaragua, Venezualia, the list is endless. Think of the brutal and repressive regimes in Cuba, China (who murdered millions in that time frame), Cambodia, Vietnam. Think of the sheer murderous lunacy of Uganda, the Central African Republic, Zimababwe, Libya and Sierra Leone amongst many others. Think of the torturers of the secret police of so many middle eastern countries.
In eastern Europe, certainly in the Soviet Union, even if he had lived he may well have been subjected to abusive psychiatric drugs and left a shell of what he was. The South African regime on Robben Island was brutal but he was not tortured or mained or destroyed. He has lived to the grand old age of 95, an innings beyond the ken of any English batsman in modern times.
I think that South Africa got its reward for this application of the rule of law (decency is far too strong a word of course). They got a man who developed into a moral giant who was able to help bring a deeply divided country together. He deserves great credit for this of course but just maybe not all the credit.
My second thought is to wonder why, despite this, SA was thought to be so far beyond everyone else's pale during this time in this world of horrors. Was there just a little bit of the South Africans being rather like us and that they should therefore know better? Was there at least some implicit racism in all that posturing?
Just a thought.0 -
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I'd like to note his sentence received and what would have been recieved with a Not guilty plea tbh.richardDodd said:I can imagine the Yanks told our two terrorist pals exactly what real life will be like in a 6x 8 cell for 25 years, that tends to sharpen the mind.
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The French economy will grow by 0.5% in the final three months of the year, said the country's central bank.
Rising industrial production prompted the Bank of France to raise its quarterly growth forecast from 0.4%.
The country's official Insee statistics agency is currently predicting 0.4% growth in the final quarter.
The upgrade comes after the bank's business sentiment survey rose to a two-year high in France, which emerged from recession at the start of 2013.
France's industrial sector index was found to be up to 101 points in the survey.
This marks the first time it rose to above 100, its long-term average, since May 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-253012370 -
DavidL
Excellent post.
The reason SA came for so much more mudslinging than all the other horrors is that racism is the worst crime bar none in the lefty pantheon. Kill a few million in the name of Marx and that's collateral damage. But racism - that's really bad. Objectively of course apartheid SA wasn't even near the front of the queue of 20th century evil regimes.0 -
Re the Mandela tribute in parliament - We have to be thankful Blair is not there anymore . He could do SeanT's 'tribute' and make it sound like a serious speech from the heart !0
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LOL. More dodgy stats from France to cover up the horror that is French industry. Every French partner that we have all say business is way down on last year, our own business is down YoY, the consumer good industry is down YoY, their car firms are circling the drain and the ministry of information in France want the world to believe that they are growing at a annualised rate of 2%. Pull the other one INSEE!Financier said:The French economy will grow by 0.5% in the final three months of the year, said the country's central bank.
Rising industrial production prompted the Bank of France to raise its quarterly growth forecast from 0.4%.
The country's official Insee statistics agency is currently predicting 0.4% growth in the final quarter.
The upgrade comes after the bank's business sentiment survey rose to a two-year high in France, which emerged from recession at the start of 2013.
France's industrial sector index was found to be up to 101 points in the survey.
This marks the first time it rose to above 100, its long-term average, since May 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-253012370 -
Hilary Benn now speaking, is certainly his fathers son - The voice, tone, accent, very slight lisp and style together with his hand gestures.0
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Good moaning! I was bruising the threads and I brung you a massage: The Frinch economy is being ponded like a duckside hacker.MaxPB said:
LOL. More dodgy stats from France to cover up the horror that is French industry. Every French partner that we have all say business is way down on last year, our own business is down YoY, the consumer good industry is down YoY, their car firms are circling the drain and the ministry of information in France want the world to believe that they are growing at a annualised rate of 2%. Pull the other one INSEE!Financier said:The French economy will grow by 0.5% in the final three months of the year, said the country's central bank.
Rising industrial production prompted the Bank of France to raise its quarterly growth forecast from 0.4%.
The country's official Insee statistics agency is currently predicting 0.4% growth in the final quarter.
The upgrade comes after the bank's business sentiment survey rose to a two-year high in France, which emerged from recession at the start of 2013.
France's industrial sector index was found to be up to 101 points in the survey.
This marks the first time it rose to above 100, its long-term average, since May 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-253012370 -
Shadsy is still worst price on Jowell and Khan amongst the realistic (15-1 or lower) contenders, those are my two main bets (Have a smidgen on Coe/Lammy) for the role. So obviously he wants Paddy Power/Winner to take cash on them...
Won't be throwing my Khan bet in the bin just yet
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AveryLP?richardDodd said:I wonderv how many PB Osborne fetishists dashed off to drool over his pics in theSpeccie, how sad..
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For "lefty" read righty, for "kill a few million in the name of Marx" read kill millions in the name of Hitler.Patrick said:DavidL
Excellent post.
The reason SA came for so much more mudslinging than all the other horrors is that racism is the worst crime bar none in the lefty pantheon. Kill a few million in the name of Marx and that's collateral damage. But racism - that's really bad. Objectively of course apartheid SA wasn't even near the front of the queue of 20th century evil regimes.
Evil is not the preserve of either extreme of the political spectrum.
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"Iceland to write €24,000 off every household mortgage":
http://www.thejournal.ie/iceland-goes-against-international-concern-writes-off-debt-1203320-Dec2013/?utm_source=shortlink0 -
LD selections:
Dulwich & West Norwood: James Barber
Lewisham Deptford: Michael Bukola
Lewisham East: Julia Fletcher0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
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