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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lea
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First full post Autumn poll from Populus online has LAB lead +4 – a different picture from YouGov
Yesterday I highlighted the Sunday Times YouGov poll – the first full voting intention survey since Osborn’s Autumn Statement on Thursday. That had the CON lead down to 5%.
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In other news another poll showing Labour in the 40's.
Swingback, swingback, my kingdom for my swingback.
Tic toc tic toc......I think Messina and Crosby are doing a mighty fine job.
The DNS swab might indicate a direct connection to Ash.
Surely?
Then again I just read the Telegraph article that @TGOHF linked to on the last thread, and I barely understood a word of it, so maybe its me
Although you can definitely pass the marigold gloves to some other lucky PBer !!
This includes the 2010 switchers sub samples.
Number 10 has had to step in to shore up support "Downing St has backed Iain Duncan Smith amid criticism over delays to the introduction of Universal Credit, insisting the transition is a "gradual process"
"The Secretary of State is leading this very important programme of welfare reform, which is so important to the economy and is the right thing to do..It's designed to be a gradual process," a spokesman said."
If you are still struggling : http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_Score_in_a_brothel_you_couldn't_score_in_a_brothel_mean_is_it_a_part_of_some_song_why_are_the_football_fans_singing_that#slide3
Should the tories approach David Haye?
After reading of the unfunny joke fellow being arrested I fear for his non-blog about Mandela Mr. T might've been tried in a secret court and presently be languishing for an indeterminate period in a jail cell in an unspecified location.
Hmm. I did mean this to be amusing, but it's probably not far enough away from reality. That's a bit depressing.
I think it's way too soon to tell and polls now are fairly meaningless - they show the electorate is pretty p****d with all parties but the govt takes the most flak as you'd expect. It's clear they're very nervous about Labour and have little confidence in either Ed - as otherwise Labour would be out of the park by now. They do have the bolster of 2010 LD votes but it's not clear yet that they'll be there in 2015. As for UKIP I think that is mostly protest votes now many of which will return home in 2015 or more likely not vote.
If we're being picky, Andy Carroll has two Ls.
The rock-solid 39/32 split probably lives on.
Good lord - a trolled up version of Tim - whatever next.
Crosby though is a conundrum. What do people see in the man who led Howard to ridicule and defeat, saw Boris scrape home against a tired and discredited Ken, and whose dog-whistles to the right alienate the centre?
(And surely the whole point of a dog-whistle is that only dogs can hear it? That you appeal to UKIP without the centrists noticing? Classic examples include Bush deflecting criticism by saying "that's a comma" where only the committed Christian right recognised the allusion, and living on a ranch (since sold).)
With regards The Irons, I don't think I have ever seen a team play for so long without a centre forward. I amazed they have got the points they have so far.
I would certainly not get over excited by one polling company at almost anytime - even in a year's time there'd need to be evidence of clear trend. One additional thought I'm not sure when push comes to shove that the electorate would go for a Miliband/Balls offering given their lack of economic credibility - but this may not show up till very late in the day. Clearly the voters hate austerity and all it has brought but I think deep down they know you can't live on credit forever.
Only for the left. Nobody on the right mentions Crosby.
The left are obsessed by him.
Roger would have been proud to have filmed it.
No spoilers, but do watch to the end.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-a8dAHDQoo
Speaking of polls, why is it polls are only dissected microscopically when they are good for a certain party on here. I assume you would be ignoring the polls if say the Tory Party were on 40% then?
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/images/dynamicImages/file/Northern Blues 7 Nov PUBLISH.pdf
2010 Lib Dems:
Lab 38%
LD 37%
Con 9%
Grn 7%
UKIP 5%
SNP 1%
Gender split:
Female: 44% Lab 30% Con
Male: 38% Lab 36% Con
Scottish split:
Lab 34%
SNP 32%
Con 16%
LD 8%
UKIP 6%
Grn 3%
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Online_VI_09-12-2013_BPC.pdf
Lab 29%
LD 30%
Con 8%
UKIP 4%
SNP 1%
Green 6%
Others 1%
DK/WNV 21%
You really need to take the numbers before the DKs are netted out.
If the immigration from January next year is more than expected that will play into UKIP hands. Also just not being associated with Westminster at the moment is a bonus, what with the 11% pay rise.
I'm not sure ukip voters care about the "Vote UKIP get Labour" line anymore, who wants Dave anyway?
(By the way, your figures are no more "correct" or "incorrect" than my figures. You are just reporting different parameters.)
Thanks for the chart.
Technical question: How do you insert a chart or graphic into a post?
They don't care at all because they see no difference between labour and the modern tories.
And with reports Milli may be planning to ship in the Blairites to get labour past the election, they may have a point.
On the other side of the coin, "Vote Lib Dem you will keep Clegg" will connect well with those Lib Dem to Labour switch over voters.
Not surprised it has no positive effect on the numbers.
I've been parliamentary sketch writer for just two years - yet already I'm having the privilege of hearing a Commons speech by Gordon Brown
The big news out today is that Japan has revised down its third quarter growth rate, and it appears that Abenomics is not having the desired effect. When 3Q numbers were first released for Japan, they showed a (disappointing) 1.9% annualised growth rate. That has now been cut to 1.1%. The question is does this mean that money printing is an inefficient way of getting an economy growing, or is this just a blip? Just to put the scale of the money printing in context, the Japanese monetary base has leapt 52.5% in the last twelve months.
(Intriguingly, Japan now runs a significant, and growing, trade deficit.) Given Japanese-debt-to-GDP is c. 240% this could all turn fairly nasty. It is also a salutary reminder that without meaningful reform and liberalisation, money printing on its own is not enough.
Patrick O'Flynn@oflynnexpress1m
People trying too hard to be offended at No10 putting out a tweet about something not Mandela-related IMO.
Phew - glad I cleared that up!
structured in three sections: inputs to education (such as education spending, school entrance age, pupil teacher ratio, school life expectancy, teacher salaries, among others), outputs of education (such as cognitive skills measured by international tests such as PISA, literacy rates, graduation rates, unemployment by educational attainment, labour market productivity, among others) and socio-economic environment indicators (social inequality, crime rates, GDP per capita, unemployment, among others). The Data Bank’s indicators were used to create the Index and conduct a correlations exercise.".
The Starting Well index doesn't measure outputs at all.
They should not be used to argue that Britain's educational systems are adequate.
When you put it like that, the yen should be a screaming sell, but I notice it has already given up a good deal of ground in recent months.
Can I point you to the round box under your desk..
Simon Carr @simonsketch 33s
Gordon stats from the Commons:
I x 12. My x 4. Me x 2.
Nelson Mandela x 13.
Total: Gordon 18, Mandela 13.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/12/coffee-shots-george-osborne-action-chancellor/
Get the tissues ready ...
What we are seeing in these polls is the usual noise, exacerbated in the case of Yougov by the preceding poll being anomolous giving Labour an exaggerated read.
From Labour's point of view this is good news. However much damage Balls sustained amongst the Parliamentary party by his abject performance it almost certainly did not reach their supporters, let alone cause them to think again. The clock is indeed ticking and the next potential change point is not obvious.
Drip, drip drip sometimes works but it can take hundreds of years to make a stalagmite.
"Two British terror suspects who were extradited to the US after an eight-year legal battle plan to change their pleas to guilty next week, a US court has said."
Suspects no more.
Did Autumn statement do Dave & George any good? Guardian/ICM poll later ...
Is it too obvious?
Can I suggest two points, both somewhat controversial but which will hopefully not get me arrested.
Firstly, I think it should be recognised that apartheid South Africa (although indisputibly morally repugnant) was, almost uniquely amongst African countries in the 60s-90s a country run by the rule of law. In probably the majority of countries in Africa, and quite possibly in the world, Mandela would simply have disappeared.
Think of the number of South and Central American bullies and dictators that operated in those decades, from the disappeared of Argentina, Chile, Nicaragua, Venezualia, the list is endless. Think of the brutal and repressive regimes in Cuba, China (who murdered millions in that time frame), Cambodia, Vietnam. Think of the sheer murderous lunacy of Uganda, the Central African Republic, Zimababwe, Libya and Sierra Leone amongst many others. Think of the torturers of the secret police of so many middle eastern countries.
In eastern Europe, certainly in the Soviet Union, even if he had lived he may well have been subjected to abusive psychiatric drugs and left a shell of what he was. The South African regime on Robben Island was brutal but he was not tortured or mained or destroyed. He has lived to the grand old age of 95, an innings beyond the ken of any English batsman in modern times.
I think that South Africa got its reward for this application of the rule of law (decency is far too strong a word of course). They got a man who developed into a moral giant who was able to help bring a deeply divided country together. He deserves great credit for this of course but just maybe not all the credit.
My second thought is to wonder why, despite this, SA was thought to be so far beyond everyone else's pale during this time in this world of horrors. Was there just a little bit of the South Africans being rather like us and that they should therefore know better? Was there at least some implicit racism in all that posturing?
Just a thought.
Rising industrial production prompted the Bank of France to raise its quarterly growth forecast from 0.4%.
The country's official Insee statistics agency is currently predicting 0.4% growth in the final quarter.
The upgrade comes after the bank's business sentiment survey rose to a two-year high in France, which emerged from recession at the start of 2013.
France's industrial sector index was found to be up to 101 points in the survey.
This marks the first time it rose to above 100, its long-term average, since May 2011.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25301237
Excellent post.
The reason SA came for so much more mudslinging than all the other horrors is that racism is the worst crime bar none in the lefty pantheon. Kill a few million in the name of Marx and that's collateral damage. But racism - that's really bad. Objectively of course apartheid SA wasn't even near the front of the queue of 20th century evil regimes.
Won't be throwing my Khan bet in the bin just yet
@DavidL
Would you feel the same way if SA had been a black minority regime denying the right to vote to a white majority?
Evil is not the preserve of either extreme of the political spectrum.
http://www.thejournal.ie/iceland-goes-against-international-concern-writes-off-debt-1203320-Dec2013/?utm_source=shortlink
Dulwich & West Norwood: James Barber
Lewisham Deptford: Michael Bukola
Lewisham East: Julia Fletcher