politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to Brexit shouldn’t get too excited by the B
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Don't think we need polling on that one. Voters must be sick to the back teeth of hearing about it.TGOHF said:Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...0 -
It does not need new converts, Brexit won the referendum, it is Remain who needs converts.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
Plus this poll was done before the phase 1 deal was agreed when no deal looked more of a risk.0 -
Brexiters protest too much about the BMG poll.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.0 -
If the NHS is your main issue you almost certainly vote Labour anyway. In any case May's work permits will still allow in needed NHS workersRecidivist said:
If Brexit was a thing like hanging that had no effect on anything else that would be a really strong argument. The trouble is that Brexit affects a lot of other things. The Tories could easily lose votes because say the NHS isn't performing as people expect it. That the reason is the lack of staff because of lower levels of immigration won't stop Brexit supporters switching votes away from the Tories.HYUFD said:
In fact more June 2017 Tories now support Leave than June 2017 Labour voters back Remain, a reverse of the June 2016 when more Tory voters voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave.brendan16 said:
If you delve deeper into the poll results - bearing in mind all the provisos above - support for leaving amongst Tory voters has increased according to BMG and is running at about 70 to 30. It's amongst Lib Dem and Labour voters on this poll where there has been a shift to remain - at least on the raw figures - as per the up down arrows BMG use.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Metatron/Mr. Recidivist, that's an interesting question. If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?
Edited extra bit: gutted Farah won SPOTY, but only because I'd backed him last year and not this. Checked the odds a few hours beforehand, Joshua was layable at about 1.16, Hamilton around 14, Froome likewise, and everyone else was enormous.
Maybe the lesson for SPOTY is to lay the favourite?
Not quite sure why the Tories would drop a policy that is becoming increasingly popular with their own supporters - assuming we believe the BMG numbers? They won a majority in 2015 with 63 per cent of voters not voting for them.
Most voters don't like much of what the Tories are doing in government - but you don't need a majority of voters to win elections.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/CONFIDENTIAL-BMG-Independent-Poll-December-2017-EU-Ref-Tracker.xlsx
LD and SNP voters strongly back Remain.0 -
A seam to be mined by someone if they are deft enough - convince the public that their side wants to move onto more pressing matters.rottenborough said:
Don't think we need polling on that one. Voters must be sick to the back teeth of hearing about it.TGOHF said:Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...
Doubt either side will though - too caught up in the minutiae of battle.0 -
At some point the fearless? reckless? (let's compromise on feckless) Brexiteers are going to want the country to unite around the new policy position to move forward. Right now, it looks far more likely to continue endlessly split, with a plurality opposed to this fundamental change in direction. So, yes, it needs new converts.HYUFD said:
It does not need new converts, Brexit won the referendum, it is Remain who needs converts.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
Plus this poll was done before the phase 1 deal was agreed when no deal looked more of a risk.
But they're not even trying.0 -
And then at least 24 months in transition. This won’t be over for years, and every month that goes by, support for it is slipping.TGOHF said:Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...0 -
There’s also organisations like the British Council and various British Business Group or British Business Council chapters around the world, who provide local networking for smaller businesses. The embassies mainly deal with very large or government deals.OldKingCole said:
Had an email from a relative in exporting the other day. I’d asked him about support from British Embassy services in his work and his reply was 'The service exists but it is useless. Unless you are BAE or Rolls Royce they are not interested. Other countries such as Canada and some EU countries put us to shame.'williamglenn said:IDS is doing his best to make John McDonnell look like the safe choice for the economy.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/9426670331703992320 -
Supplies of whitewash running low.
A Labour MP who allegedly pestered a young female official to "come back to my hotel" after blocking her from getting into a taxi is not facing an investigation after the party said the incident was not sexual harassment.
Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, failed to interview the woman after she submitted an official complaint or take evidence from another male MP who witnessed the incident.
The NEC subsequently claimed that there was "not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."
The MP who witnessed the incident said he was "baffled" that he had not been asked to make a statement before a decision was made on whether to take the complaint forward.
The woman said that the decision not to investigate the incident had made her feel like "a victim all over again".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/17/exclusive-labour-embroiled-latest-sexual-harassment-scandal/0 -
According to the pollsters, it usually lost the arguments before the Referendum too. Didn't seem to make much difference on the day.Gardenwalker said:
Brexiters protest too much about the BMG poll.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.0 -
Took 40 years for support for the EU to drain away sufficiently to overturn the previous referendum.williamglenn said:
And then at least 24 months in transition. This won’t be over for years, and every month that goes by, support for it is slipping.TGOHF said:Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...
We could have a referendum to come back in in 2057 I suppose.0 -
But the time for the argument was before the referendum. There is no argument to have now except for the details of how Brexit will work. The vast majority just want the government to get on with it so we can discuss other pressing issues.Gardenwalker said:
Brexiters protest too much about the BMG poll.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.0 -
17 million voted Leave, more than have ever voted for anything in the UK, all of them Brexiteers in some form.AlastairMeeks said:
At some point the fearless? reckless? (let's compromise on feckless) Brexiteers are going to want the country to unite around the new policy position to move forward. Right now, it looks far more likely to continue endlessly split, with a plurality opposed to this fundamental change in direction. So, yes, it needs new converts.HYUFD said:
It does not need new converts, Brexit won the referendum, it is Remain who needs converts.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
Plus this poll was done before the phase 1 deal was agreed when no deal looked more of a risk.
But they're not even trying.
May's policy of a FTA that ends free movement has support from most voters in the country except diehard Remainers like you and diehard Brexiteers0 -
What is firmly over is your dream of a UK in a United States of Europewilliamglenn said:
And then at least 24 months in transition. This won’t be over for years, and every month that goes by, support for it is slipping.TGOHF said:Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...0 -
Brexit was losing the argument far more convincingly in 2015. Then, public opinion turned.Gardenwalker said:
Brexiters protest too much about the BMG poll.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.0 -
TBF I’ve paraphrased. I’ll mention those when I see him, though. See what he says.Sandpit said:
There’s also organisations like the British Council and various British Business Group or British Business Council chapters around the world, who provide local networking for smaller businesses. The embassies mainly deal with very large or government deals.OldKingCole said:
Had an email from a relative in exporting the other day. I’d asked him about support from British Embassy services in his work and his reply was 'The service exists but it is useless. Unless you are BAE or Rolls Royce they are not interested. Other countries such as Canada and some EU countries put us to shame.'williamglenn said:IDS is doing his best to make John McDonnell look like the safe choice for the economy.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/9426670331703992320 -
Mr. F, it'd be intriguing to know how things would've gone without the migrant crisis/Merkel's lunatic siren call.0
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So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.0 -
Mr. Meeks, assuming we leave, political inertia then sides with staying out (as the political consensus prevents the electorate from slashing aid spending).
For that to change either a major party would need to make it a manifesto centrepiece by choice, or an EU-phile version of UKIP would be needed to unwillingly force a party to offer a referendum. It'd be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems fulfil that role or we end up with a new Eurosausage Party.0 -
Of course not, you barely post about anything else. The point is had you and other diehard Remainers put in as much effort campaigning for Remain as you do whinging about the result you might never have had a Brexit to forget in the first place!AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.0 -
Wasn’t that when the bus and the Turkish poster appeared?Sean_F said:
Brexit was losing the argument far more convincingly in 2015. Then, public opinion turned.Gardenwalker said:
Brexiters protest too much about the BMG poll.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.0 -
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
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Your point is a very good one, as are Peter Kellner's. But Peter's are the telling ones in the context of a second referendum to reverse Brexit. The only point of a second referendum in my opinion is to ratify a collective change of mind. That requires a significant amount of Bremorse - maybe 20% of those that voted Leave to decide they made a mistake. There is a small net movement to Remain, but not nearly enough to change course.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.0 -
Why? The one party backing cutting our aid budget received fewer than 2% of the votes in June.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, assuming we leave, political inertia then sides with staying out (as the political consensus prevents the electorate from slashing aid spending).
For that to change either a major party would need to make it a manifesto centrepiece by choice, or an EU-phile version of UKIP would be needed to unwillingly force a party to offer a referendum. It'd be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems fulfil that role or we end up with a new Eurosausage Party.0 -
That's the biggest Spartan if of the year.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
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Mr. Eagles, pish. When the big two parties, and smaller one such as SNP and Lib Dems, all agree on something, it's very hard for that to be changed unless the something in question is the most important thing to voters.
Likewise, I'd like to reduce foreign aid spending and put it into Defence and Health, but I won't vote UKIP as it'd risk the friend of Hamas getting into Number Ten.0 -
Cable was pressing the case for a second referendum in the Metro this morning as a commitment rather than not being ruled out like some in Labour have doneMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, assuming we leave, political inertia then sides with staying out (as the political consensus prevents the electorate from slashing aid spending).
For that to change either a major party would need to make it a manifesto centrepiece by choice, or an EU-phile version of UKIP would be needed to unwillingly force a party to offer a referendum. It'd be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems fulfil that role or we end up with a new Eurosausage Party.0 -
I am sure they are. However we are getting to the important point now: what do we actually want and can we have it? Those without answers are apparently meeting in secret to thrash it out. The rest of us should have a say.TGOHF said:Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...
Meanwhile I will repost this piece from Jonathan Portes
What parliament really wants – and quite right too – is a say about the much more fundamental question that will be discussed in phase 3 of the negotiations – what will the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU look like? Will we seek to maintain, as far as possible, the current degree of economic integration with the EU, even after we leave its political structures? That is, do we seek to remain, formally or through some alternative arrangements, in the EU single market and/or customs union? Or do we seek to disengage and negotiate a “deep and comprehensive trade arrangement” with the EU – that is, a comprehensive free trade agreement, with nothing like the degree of regulatory convergence implied by the single market. The latter would mean a very significant increase in barriers to trade – formal and informal – with our largest trading partner, but on the other hand offers the opportunity to shape our own regulatory framework and to conclude trade deals with the rest of world.
That is a genuinely meaningful choice. It is not one that was on the referendum ballot, and there are former remainers and leavers on both sides of the divide. It is not one that has ever been properly debated or decided, either in parliament or the country. Much of the debate has been of the “cake and eat it” kind. Indeed, Theresa May has so far refused to even have a proper discussion in cabinet, since she knows there is deep disagreement.
On this, the most fundamental issue, the EU27 aren’t seeking to impose their views. As EU representatives have said repeatedly, we have a binary choice to make, but it is our choice.0 -
I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.0
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Remember that logic when people cite that 80% of voters backed parties that want to leave the single market and customs unions in June.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, pish. When the big two parties, and smaller one such as SNP and Lib Dems, all agree on something, it's very hard for that to be changed unless the something in question is the most important thing to voters.
Likewise, I'd like to reduce foreign aid spending and put it into Defence and Health, but I won't vote UKIP as it'd risk the friend of Hamas getting into Number Ten.0 -
not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."...TheScreamingEagles said:Supplies of whitewash running low.
A Labour MP who allegedly pestered a young female official to "come back to my hotel" after blocking her from getting into a taxi is not facing an investigation after the party said the incident was not sexual harassment.
Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, failed to interview the woman after she submitted an official complaint or take evidence from another male MP who witnessed the incident.
The NEC subsequently claimed that there was "not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."
The MP who witnessed the incident said he was "baffled" that he had not been asked to make a statement before a decision was made on whether to take the complaint forward.
The woman said that the decision not to investigate the incident had made her feel like "a victim all over again".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/17/exclusive-labour-embroiled-latest-sexual-harassment-scandal/
WTAF ?0 -
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.0 -
I really hope you are right!theakes said:I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.
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"Madness??? THIS IS BREXIT!!!!!"AlastairMeeks said:
That's the biggest Spartan if of the year.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.0 -
The perception is more important than the reality I suspect.AlastairMeeks said:
That's the biggest Spartan if of the year.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
All it needs I reckon is avoid a major recession, reduce immigration and convincingly claim to have given substantially more money to the NHS.
Arguably they are on course/Can still deliver on all 3.0 -
Except as even BMG says their poll swing comes entirely from referendum non voters moving to Remain (and that has likely narrowed post Phase 1 deal), over 90% of Leave voters still back Leave.theakes said:I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.
Plus if we do Remain even by 10% in an EU referendum 2 that would not end the matter, UKIP would just return on am SNP style agenda to keep the issue alive for an EU referendum 3 (or 4 if you count 1975)0 -
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!0 -
@rcs1000 made the point in 2015 that pollsters missed the extent of the Lib Dem collapse because of this effect. People had conveniently 'forgotten' their previous support for the Lib Dems, so poll weightings disguised the true swing away from them.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.0 -
Had it not been for the Lord Ashcroft constituency polling then the Lib Dem hammering wouldn't have been a shock.williamglenn said:
@rcs1000 made the point in 2015 that pollsters missed the extent of the Lib Dem collapse because of this effect. People had conveniently 'forgotten' their previous support for the Lib Dems, so poll weightings disguised the true swing away from them.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.0 -
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.0 -
Ian Botham says he’s personally met more people who said they were at the last two days of the 1981 Headingly Test, than the ground could hold at the time.rkrkrk said:
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!0 -
Sir Ian Botham says based amount of people who tell him they were there at Headingley 1981 some half a million people attended the match.rkrkrk said:
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!0 -
We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.0
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Very trueHYUFD said:
Technically England and Wales of course, not that it would have made much difference this timemalcolmg said:
Helps that England are so crapNickPalmer said:
There's an element of punter bias here, I think. The male-dominated Dusk Till Dawn poker club in Nottingham routinely shows boxing on the screens, as do other clubs I've played in - I once complained that the volume was turned up really loud for the final and was told by several people that 80% of the attendees were keen - as they seemed to be.tlg86 said:
Interesting. Lennox Lewis in 1999 drew with Holyfield in March and then won in November. Calzaghe won his big fight against Kessler in November 2007 and benefited from the publicity surrounding the Mayweather v Hatton fight which Hatton lost.MikeSmithson said:This may sound crazy but who is Anthony Joshua? I had never heard of him until last night. Boxing is really a very minority sport and it's not shown much on mainstream television.
So I wonder if Joshua suffered from his big win coming in the summer.
If, as I suspect, Betfair also have a predominantly male audience, then punters may overestimate the chances of boxers in a wider contest like SPOTY, where name recognition is key. I've little interest in sport, but I know Mo Farah's name well and if I'd voted it might have been for him.
In the same way, ironically, I've been making modest profits out of betting on cricket, simply by assuming there's a Betfair bias to backing England in anything, so laying England tends to be good value. If one can spot a punter bias and is cold-blooded enough not to bet with one's heart, it can be profitable.
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Partly because many of its supporters will have passed on.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.0 -
Because it would have been undemocratic to tell the majority of people that they could not have what they wanted.rottenborough said:
Partly because many of its supporters will have passed on.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.0 -
Is that last word a question or an answer?rottenborough said:
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.0 -
Perhaps that’s the legend I am thinking of instead...Sandpit said:
Ian Botham says he’s personally met more people who said they were at the last two days of the 1981 Headingly Test, than the ground could hold at the time.rkrkrk said:
Absolutely- the effect will work the other way as well.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
Perhaps a bit like how (maybe urban legend) a much larger than plausible number of people reckon they were at the 1966 World Cup final!0 -
ydoethur said:
Is that last word a question or an answer?rottenborough said:
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.
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For goodness sake Remoaners. You lost. Get over it. Opinion polls are fallible, often wrong and we are not governed by polls. We are leaving the EU.0
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I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.0 -
We lost. Now it is time to Think Again.stevef said:For goodness sake Remoaners. You lost. Get over it. Opinion polls are fallible, often wrong and we are not governed by polls. We are leaving the EU.
0 -
I agree with Peter Kellner.
It has been a fascinating 24 hours, though. First, we find out that Tory Brexiteers in the Cabinet are seeking to use our departure from the EU as a way to reduce employee rights. And this morning we learn that another prominent Tory Brexiteer believes that far from offering British business a golden tomorrow, our EU departure is something that they are going to have to "suck up"!! It's good to see that some honesty is emerging, but those sunlit uplands are looking further away than ever.0 -
I live in the West Midlands and see no sign of Brexit regret at all. I do not think I know anyone who has changed their mind one way or another.theakes said:I live in the North Midlands and have been saying for six months or more that colleagues who suprisingly voted leave have been saying they regret it. Made on the immigration issue which they now see as not the main matter. The swings noted over the past 3 months are very represenative of this. Unemployment has now bottomed out and will begin to rise over the next 6 months, Inflation will probably stay around 2.5 - 3.5%, prices will continue to increase, and I foreee that by the summer recess the political situation and balance in the government will have shifted as well. The change in public opinion will then allow Labour to come out for Remain, following which it should be downhill to another Referendum in October 2018. Then thankfully the world can get back to normal and most importantly government can focus on what really matters in this country instead of diverting so much resources and energy to Brexit to the detriment of almost everything else.
0 -
Brexit isn't going to be overturned. It is, however, shaping up to be unpopular in the long term. Leavers don't seem worried by that yet. If I were a Leave supporter, that possibility would be keeping me awake at night.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.0 -
Yep - that is absolutely correct. The problem is that it is a politically impossible choice to make because it goes against everything that Tory Leave campaigners told voters during the referendum campaign - and everything the government has said since the vote.FF43 said:
I am sure they are. However we are getting to the important point now: what do we actually want and can we have it? Those without answers are apparently meeting in secret to thrash it out. The rest of us should have a say.TGOHF said:Need some polling on whether the public are bored of discussing Brexit.
Going to be a long 15 months...
Meanwhile I will repost this piece from Jonathan Portes
What parliament really wants – and quite right too – is a say about the much more fundamental question that will be discussed in phase 3 of the negotiations – what will the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU look like? Will we seek to maintain, as far as possible, the current degree of economic integration with the EU, even after we leave its political structures? That is, do we seek to remain, formally or through some alternative arrangements, in the EU single market and/or customs union? Or do we seek to disengage and negotiate a “deep and comprehensive trade arrangement” with the EU – that is, a comprehensive free trade agreement, with nothing like the degree of regulatory convergence implied by the single market. The latter would mean a very significant increase in barriers to trade – formal and informal – with our largest trading partner, but on the other hand offers the opportunity to shape our own regulatory framework and to conclude trade deals with the rest of world.
That is a genuinely meaningful choice. It is not one that was on the referendum ballot, and there are former remainers and leavers on both sides of the divide. It is not one that has ever been properly debated or decided, either in parliament or the country. Much of the debate has been of the “cake and eat it” kind. Indeed, Theresa May has so far refused to even have a proper discussion in cabinet, since she knows there is deep disagreement.
On this, the most fundamental issue, the EU27 aren’t seeking to impose their views. As EU representatives have said repeatedly, we have a binary choice to make, but it is our choice.
0 -
We get that. What does it mean, though? The winners haven't got a Scooby.stevef said:For goodness sake Remoaners. You lost. Get over it. Opinion polls are fallible, often wrong and we are not governed by polls. We are leaving the EU.
0 -
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.0 -
More seriously, while I can see the logic I'm dubious about the effect of minimum thresholds. They can easily start a 'we wuz robbed' narrative that ends by causing much greater trouble down the line.rottenborough said:ydoethur said:
Is that last word a question or an answer?rottenborough said:
Why or why did Cameron not insist on a threshold for a Leave vote. Madness.
Take Scotland 1979. Roughly the same split as Brexit (51-49) but on a 63% turnout. Therefore the failure to meet the required 40% threshold became a constant running sore in constitutional affairs from 1979 to 1997 and did much damage to both the main parties north of the border.
If my maths is correct, 38% voted to leave. That's a big number. If a 40% threshold had been applied, nothing would be happening - except that Nigel Farage would be likely to be our next PM, a la Sturgeon's brutal hammering of the Unionists in 2015, a fate almost as bad as Jeremy Corbyn being PM.
Although in theory it might have acted as a wake up call to the EU to do something sane like close down the Parliament, prosecute Juncker and Barnier and revert power to the Heads of Government where it belongs, as has been proven brutally many times the EU does not pay heed to votes merely because they reveal the union has an existential level lack of popular legitimacy. More likely Juncker would have claimed endorsement of his and the EU's personal popularity (as Verhofstadt did) and carried on illegally misappropriating the powers of the Heads of Government to the Commission.
So I think even as a Remainer I would argue a threshold might have been even more disastrous than a leave vote. Remember, the issues are only becoming clear to leavers, if indeed they are, as they arise in negotiations.0 -
£350m per week deux, referendum boogaloo?Sean_F said:
Brexit was losing the argument far more convincingly in 2015. Then, public opinion turned.Gardenwalker said:
Brexiters protest too much about the BMG poll.AlastairMeeks said:Peter Kellner makes good points. All of them miss the point that Brexit seems to be making no new converts and if anything losing support.
For a major policy and cultural shift, that bodes very ill indeed.
In fact, there hasn’t been a majority for Brexit since Feb 2017.
As you say, Brexit is losing the argument.0 -
Yes - holding another referendum with a close result would be even more damaging to national cohesion and the body politic than the first one. We shouldn't rule out another electoral process, which could be either a general election or a referendum, on the exit deal when it is clear what that will be but there is not enough information or evidence that people have changed their minds to justify another one at the moment.FF43 said:
Your point is a very good one, as are Peter Kellner's. But Peter's are the telling ones in the context of a second referendum to reverse Brexit. The only point of a second referendum in my opinion is to ratify a collective change of mind. That requires a significant amount of Bremorse - maybe 20% of those that voted Leave to decide they made a mistake. There is a small net movement to Remain, but not nearly enough to change course.0 -
Matt d'Ancona has picked up on Boris's plagiarism, which was noted on here yesterday:
Boris Johnson, increasingly seen by younger Tories as a Nokia to the Moggster’s iPhone X, plays catch-up, deploying an identical form of words in a Sunday Times article. What, the foreign secretary asked, would be the point of mirroring EU laws: “we would have gone from a member state to a vassal state”. To which one is sorely tempted to respond: what were you expecting, mate? The sound you hear is the oak beams of Brexit groaning and cracking under the weight of its internal contradictions. The true believers want simultaneously to escape the tyranny of Brussels but – somehow – to retain all the commercial benefits of the single market.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/17/brexit-will-of-the-people-vassal-state-populism0 -
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....AlastairMeeks said:
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.0 -
Two points:CarlottaVance said:
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....AlastairMeeks said:
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
1) Xenophobes don't tend to get death threats.
2) Leave supporters actually want Brexit to work, so they need to make a success of it. But for some reason they're not trying.0 -
If you are convinced Leave supporter, then you are going to believe that Brexit will work out, so no need for sleepless nights. If it doesn't work out it will be the EU's fault.AlastairMeeks said:
Brexit isn't going to be overturned. It is, however, shaping up to be unpopular in the long term. Leavers don't seem worried by that yet. If I were a Leave supporter, that possibility would be keeping me awake at night.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.
0 -
The tale of so many tales:
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........0 -
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much larger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
I cannot understand why REMAIN supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a swivel-eyed xenophobe.
0 -
That's why I wrote a piece a year ago pointing out Leavers were Juncker's Fifth Columnists.Richard_Tyndall said:
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much lrger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.0 -
Not even multiple election winners Thatcher and Blair got more than 50% of the vote.stevef said:We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.
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Indeed.rkrkrk said:
The perception is more important than the reality I suspect.AlastairMeeks said:
That's the biggest Spartan if of the year.rkrkrk said:
If it goes well - then I could imagine 20 years from now that many Remainers have convinced themselves they did vote Leave.AlastairMeeks said:So the view of Leavers is that those who think that Brexit was the wrong choice are just going to forget about that once Brexit is done?
It's a view I suppose.
All it needs I reckon is avoid a major recession, reduce immigration and convincingly claim to have given substantially more money to the NHS.
Arguably they are on course/Can still deliver on all 3.
One thing that the continuity Remainers are contributing to the country is the continual playing down of expectations.
In the spirit of Christmas; thanks chaps!
0 -
It must take some gall to sit in sunny Australia and imagine you have the right to lecture people who actually live here what they should & shouldn't do. You're not Rupert Murdoch are you?archer101au said:
IDS is right. Business obviously wants the status quo, and business is very important, but we do not run the whole country for the benefit of business or even for the economy. There are bigger issues at stake. They can adapt to Brexit.williamglenn said:IDS is doing his best to make John McDonnell look like the safe choice for the economy.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/9426670331703992320 -
Remainers, surely.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I wrote a piece a year ago pointing out Leavers were Juncker's Fifth Columnists.Richard_Tyndall said:
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much lrger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.0 -
Just one correction, the 8 year period starts when we leave, not at he end of the transition period. So it will run for EU citizens to 2027 not 2029.surbiton said:The tale of so many tales:
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........
Moreover you are committing the normal error of claiming that because we have to pay £39 billion to leave we should instead pay £15 billion a year for ever. Not exactly a winning or even logical argument.0 -
And is why you were wrong then and are wrong now. You really never learn do you.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I wrote a piece a year ago pointing out Leavers were Juncker's Fifth Columnists.Richard_Tyndall said:
All of which dreaming of course ignores the reality that the EU is changing and will continue to change, becoming a far closer union than it is now with far less power for national Parliaments. The idea that the British would ever seek to rejoin after we have left is simply pipe dreams. More to the point nor would the EU want us to rejoin on our current terms after all the trouble we have cause them for the last 40 years. So you are now going to be looking at persuading a majority of the population that Euro membership and paying a much lrger contribution are both going to be a cracking idea. Good luck with that Gromit.TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.0 -
We will be leaving in name only. There will be no change to any aspect of EU membership apart from the UK's participation in the political structure until at least 2021. FoM, the single market and customs union and decisions of the ECJ will continue to apply.surbiton said:The tale of so many tales:
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........0 -
Your point (1) is rubbish. Farage and Griffin, for example, have had a deluge of death threats. And look no further than Pim Fortyn in the Netherlands for an example of a xenophobe where the threat came true.AlastairMeeks said:
Two points:CarlottaVance said:
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....AlastairMeeks said:
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
1) Xenophobes don't tend to get death threats.
2) Leave supporters actually want Brexit to work, so they need to make a success of it. But for some reason they're not trying.0 -
On topic.
BMG's Mike Turner gives his thoughts.
https://twitter.com/pollstermike/status/9427078680206745600 -
Didn't BMG (phone) have Remain 6% ahead one week before the referendum?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic.
BMG's Mike Turner gives his thoughts.
https://twitter.com/pollstermike/status/9427078680206745600 -
I thought he lived in America and it was his eldest son lived in Australia? The one that isn't involved in the family - firm.HHemmelig said:
It must take some gall to sit in sunny Australia and imagine you have the right to lecture people who actually live here what they should & shouldn't do. You're not Rupert Murdoch are you?archer101au said:
IDS is right. Business obviously wants the status quo, and business is very important, but we do not run the whole country for the benefit of business or even for the economy. There are bigger issues at stake. They can adapt to Brexit.williamglenn said:IDS is doing his best to make John McDonnell look like the safe choice for the economy.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/9426670331703992320 -
More importantly, "this poll shares the same methodology as BMG’s pre-Referendum polling, which consistently reported Leave ahead in the run-up to the EU referendum in 2016, and also called the correct outcome."TheScreamingEagles said:On topic.
BMG's Mike Turner gives his thoughts.
https://twitter.com/pollstermike/status/9427078680206745600 -
A client I spoke to a couple of weeks ago volunteered how good and proactive they were. He runs a $100m public company, so definitely not huge (although not small either).OldKingCole said:
Had an email from a relative in exporting the other day. I’d asked him about support from British Embassy services in his work and his reply was 'The service exists but it is useless. Unless you are BAE or Rolls Royce they are not interested. Other countries such as Canada and some EU countries put us to shame.'williamglenn said:IDS is doing his best to make John McDonnell look like the safe choice for the economy.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/9426670331703992320 -
Their online poll had Leave ahead by 10%.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't BMG (phone) have Remain 6% ahead one week before the referendum?TheScreamingEagles said:On topic.
BMG's Mike Turner gives his thoughts.
https://twitter.com/pollstermike/status/942707868020674560
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum0 -
Not surprising given Nigel Farage's recent Jew Baiting stuff is it?The_Apocalypse said:0 -
I have no idea how you can be so clueless? Yes Nigel Farage has never had police protection and death threats! I must have imagined that time his car was attacked on camera.AlastairMeeks said:
Two points:CarlottaVance said:
Bit like Remain supporters then, except Leavers are 'uneducated swivel eyed xenophobes' rather than 'traitors'.....the benefits of a better educated and more extensive vocabulary.....AlastairMeeks said:
I cannot understand why Leave supporters have been making no effort to convert the uncommitted to their cause. Quite the opposite, they have reconstituted themselves as a cult with everyone who is unconvinced branded a traitor.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
1) Xenophobes don't tend to get death threats.
2) Leave supporters actually want Brexit to work, so they need to make a success of it. But for some reason they're not trying.0 -
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.0 -
Except ...surbiton said:The tale of so many tales:
1. WE will not pay a penny. WE will just walk away.
We are committed to pay £39 billion. We now have to put this into our legislation as soon as possible before phase 2 can even start.
2. The EU will be gagging to have a trade deal with us. BMW, Prosecco etc. will force the EU.
The current deal goes on, at least until 2021. There is no guarantee that there will be a trade deal even then. So much for them "gagging" to sign an FTA.
3. ECJ jurisdiction continues at least until 2021. Regarding EU citizens, it will continue for 8 years after that.
Any more.........
1. The EU has made it abundantly clear the £39 billion is money we already owe due to having been members. It is a settling of old bills, not a new fee. Every penny of which we'd owe plus more debts accruing all the time if we'd remained.
2. So we have a deal until at least 2021 and yes they are going to sign an FTA still.
3. ECJ jurisdiction would have continued forever had we remained. When we joined there was a seven year transition, having a two year (or 8 on a couple of issues) transition on leaving isn't the end of the world.0 -
Saw this on twitter - I expect Jess Philips and co to take Labour to task on this, really depressing to see Labour handle cases in this way.TheScreamingEagles said:Supplies of whitewash running low.
A Labour MP who allegedly pestered a young female official to "come back to my hotel" after blocking her from getting into a taxi is not facing an investigation after the party said the incident was not sexual harassment.
Labour's ruling body, the National Executive Committee, failed to interview the woman after she submitted an official complaint or take evidence from another male MP who witnessed the incident.
The NEC subsequently claimed that there was "not sufficient prima facie evidence" to suggest that the event she described "was motivated by a protected characteristic."
The MP who witnessed the incident said he was "baffled" that he had not been asked to make a statement before a decision was made on whether to take the complaint forward.
The woman said that the decision not to investigate the incident had made her feel like "a victim all over again".
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/17/exclusive-labour-embroiled-latest-sexual-harassment-scandal/0 -
With all 27 of his followers I'm sure he's setting the world alight.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Having seen the details of the BMG poll, I find almost all of the sub-data plausible. The one which slightly surprised me was the "Male" split 54% back back Remain now and up, whereas "Female" support is 47% and down.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/0 -
That's why I hope Brexit turns out to be a success, I really don't want to join the single currency.TwistedFireStopper said:
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
It is also why I get so frustrated at berks like JRM being so absolutist.0 -
I assume it is inadvertent, but your post is misleading. It wasn't IDS who used the phrase "suck up" - he just said that British business would have to come to terms with the fact that we are leaving. "Suck it up" was the provocative addition by the person who retweeted it.SouthamObserver said:I agree with Peter Kellner.
It has been a fascinating 24 hours, though. First, we find out that Tory Brexiteers in the Cabinet are seeking to use our departure from the EU as a way to reduce employee rights. And this morning we learn that another prominent Tory Brexiteer believes that far from offering British business a golden tomorrow, our EU departure is something that they are going to have to "suck up"!! It's good to see that some honesty is emerging, but those sunlit uplands are looking further away than ever.0 -
Yeah, I'm a Russian bot. My real name is Dennis Sunilovsky, and my oligarch "dacha" is in the provincial spa town of Novosunilsk!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Then you are a Eurosceptic after all!TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I hope Brexit turns out to be a success, I really don't want to join the single currency.0 -
So in the few weeks we've had
1) Farage and his Jewish Lobby comments
2) Leave.EU repeating a famous anti-Semitic trope about George Soros
3) Godfrey Bloom with this https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/942664507939319809
I think it is time to proscribe UKIP as a racist organisation like Combat 180 -
And your point is ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Not even multiple election winners Thatcher and Blair got more than 50% of the vote.stevef said:We are not governed by opinion polls -the same polls which gave May a landslide at the general election. We had a referendum, the only poll that mattered.It was the largest vote for change in British political history. Period.
0 -
Yes, I feel the same. Think of all that good work by Thatcher and Major that allowed us to have our cake and eat it. Then Boris came along and ruined it. Such a waste.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's why I hope Brexit turns out to be a success, I really don't want to join the single currency.TwistedFireStopper said:
That's a plausible scenario, except that rejoining would mean going full-fat EU, and currently, I don't think the country is up for that. Maybe after a few years of the Brexit Apocalypse we might be....TheScreamingEagles said:
It won't be via a second referendum, if we rejoin, I think this is the most plausible route if Brexit turns out to be economically sub-optimal.TwistedFireStopper said:
I think that will depend on how Brexit is overturned. If there is a second referendum and remain wins convincingly, then most people will just shrug their shoulders and get on with life. If it's a fudge with the likes of Blair, Clegg, Osborne and the rest throwing spanners in the works and it grinds to a halt, i can see it being worse for the country than actually Brexiting.Dura_Ace said:
Iraq war syndrome. It's hard to find anyone who will admit to being an enthusiastic proponent of it. So it will be with Brexit 15 years hence.FF43 said:
I was looking at a poll the other day - I can't remember which one. A curious fact fell out of the figures. A net two percentage points of Leave voters now say they voted Remain. Not massive, but curious.
One party will propose rejoining the single market and customs union and they win the general election and implement their manifesto.
After a few years they'll propose rejoining and if they win, that manifesto commitment will be honoured.
The sooner we Leave, the sooner we Rejoin.
It is also why I get so frustrated at berks like JRM being so absolutist.0
