politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why those opposed to Brexit shouldn’t get too excited by the B

Remain had a 10% opinion poll lead on 23rd June 2016...

It is too easy for people to believe what they want to believe.

Ain't that the truth.

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/942527071821189120

TheScreamingEagles said:

twitter.com/Stephen_Curry/status/942504776390139905

Has the new league table of sex workers come out or something?

@robfordmancs: Instead of Die Hard I am being obliged to watch a film with Hugh Grant and Howard from Big Bang playing 1920s society poshos and Meryl Streep is in it as a rich lady who can't sing but for some reason sings on stage and people applaud.

This is not the Xmas movie I wanted.

@OnnMel: @robfordmancs I thought that was a lovely fun film. I’m watching Die Hard. Because it IS a Christmas film.

Dadge said:

Something tells me the philosopher wasn't Art Garfunkel.

Fun Fact:
Art has walked across the USA and across Europe. Not in one go, but there are worse hobbies.

The_Apocalypse said:

I don’t think this poll means anything.

I doubt many will change their minds, unless Brexit is a total disaster.

Remainers won't change their minds, even if it is a rip-roaring success?

The_Apocalypse said:

I don’t think this poll means anything.

I doubt many will change their minds, unless Brexit is a total disaster.

BMGs final poll before the referendum had remain ahead by 6 per cent. How accurate were they then.

Milliband as PM, Clinton in the White House, May with a 100 seat majority. Why bother letting tens of millions of people vote - lets just abolish elections and do a 'representative' sample of 1000 voters!

williamglenn said:

brendan16 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I don’t think this poll means anything.

I doubt many will change their minds, unless Brexit is a total disaster.

BMGs final poll before the referendum had remain ahead by 6 per cent. How accurate were they then.

That was a phone poll. They also did an online poll using the same methodology as this one which had Leave ahead. We learned from the referendum that the online polls were more accurate.

The final Populus poll - an online one - released at 10pm on 23 June 2016 had remain ahead by 10 per cent. No wonder Cameron was certain he had won - he was basing his confidence on his pollster - Populus!

Not all online pollsters were more accurate. Mori and Survation's final telephone polls were more accurate predictors than You gov and Populus's online polls.

The only poll that matters was the one in which 36 million voted - the most representative sample of all!

HYUFD said:

brendan16 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I don’t think this poll means anything.

I doubt many will change their minds, unless Brexit is a total disaster.

BMGs final poll before the referendum had remain ahead by 6 per cent. How accurate were they then.

Milliband as PM, Clinton in the White House, May with a 100 seat majority. Why bother letting tens of millions of people vote - lets just abolish elections and do a 'representative' sample of 1000 voters!

Most 2015 polls predicted a hung parliament, not a Miliband majority and about half had the Tories ahead, Clinton won the popular vote by 2% in 2016 just not the Electoral College. Both Yougov and Survation had May's lead down to 2015 levels or less by polling day suggesting she was not headed for a landslide. Even before the EU referendum some pollsters like ICM and TNS had Leave ahead, even if some like Populus and Comres and BMG had comfortable Remain leads.

So polls are not completely wrong but as you say guides not gospel.

Milliband didn't need a majority to become PM - I couldn't see the SNP propping up a Tory minority government. And that is what the bulk of polls predicted - a hung parliament with the SNP holding the balance.

Collectively the state polls and electoral college predictions based on them had Clinton way ahead - a 98 per cent chance we were told - all on the back of state polls. The national vote shares were irrelevant - as that isn't their electoral system.

As for Mrs May - even Labour couldn't believe the exit poll and they and their pollsters were certain they had lost.

I just find the idea that somehow we should stop Brexit - or even question it - on the back of a BMG poll beyond ridiculous. And of course we have a Tory and DUP government - whose voters clearly still back Brexit even on BMGs numbers.

We had a national poll on Brexit in June 2016 - the only relevant question for pollsters now should be how we Leave and on what terms.

Ally_B said:

brendan16 said:

HYUFD said:

brendan16 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I don’t think this poll means anything.

I doubt many will change their minds, unless Brexit is a total disaster.

BMGs final poll before the referendum had remain ahead by 6 per cent. How accurate were they then.

Milliband as PM, Clinton in the White House, May with a 100 seat majority. Why bother letting tens of millions of people vote - lets just abolish elections and do a 'representative' sample of 1000 voters!

Most 2015 polls predicted a hung parliament, not a Miliband majority and about half had the Tories ahead, Clinton won the popular vote by 2% in 2016 just not the Electoral College. Both Yougov and Survation had May's lead down to 2015 levels or less by polling day suggesting she was not headed for a landslide. Even before the EU referendum some pollsters like ICM and TNS had Leave ahead, even if some like Populus and Comres and BMG had comfortable Remain leads.

So polls are not completely wrong but as you say guides not gospel.

Milliband didn't need a majority to become PM - I couldn't see the SNP propping up a Tory minority government. And that is what the bulk of polls predicted - a hung parliament with the SNP holding the balance.

Collectively the state polls and electoral college predictions based on them had Clinton way ahead - a 98 per cent chance we were told - all on the back of state polls. The national vote shares were irrelevant - as that isn't their electoral system.

As for Mrs May - even Labour couldn't believe the exit poll and they and their pollsters were certain they had lost.

I just find the idea that somehow we should stop Brexit - or even question it - on the back of a BMG poll beyond ridiculous. And of course we have a Tory and DUP government - whose voters clearly still back Brexit even on BMGs numbers.

We had a national poll on Brexit in June 2016 - the only relevant question for pollsters now should be how we Leave and on what terms.

The government can't decide how we Leave and on what terms so what chance do the people have?

Leave 52%
Remain 48%

Sandpit said:

Woo, just woke up to find a gift in the Betfair account. For some reason I thought the sports awards were next weekend. Weird set of results on a low turnout, but was right to lay Joshua and back the outsiders.

Mine was a Pyrrhic victory: I had the same idea as you with the crucial difference that I did not back Mo amongst the outsiders.

This may sound crazy but who is Anthony Joshua? I had never heard of him until last night. Boxing is really a very minority sport and it's not shown much on mainstream television.

MikeSmithson said:

This may sound crazy but who is Anthony Joshua? I had never heard of him until last night. Boxing is really a very minority sport and it's not shown much on mainstream television.

World heavyweight champion - shows how much boxing has lost salience with the general public since it moved to PPV television.

He was the 1/5 favourite to win SPOTY for the last few months.

The BMG poll may turn out to be an outlier, or it may be the first indication that the mood is shifting. We won't know for a while. But it isn't important whether or not it indicates if a rerun of the 2016 referendum would give a different result today. The Brexit project is on and will have to run its course, and just how it turns out will determine the UK's future relationship with the EU. The fact that leading Brexiters have only just realised that post-leaving we are going to have to ape a lot of EU regulations isn't encouraging for the idea that Brexit will be any kind of success. That this situation can be described as being in a 'vassal state' isn't encouraging that they have got much of a grip on reality.

Good effort by Overton. Seems to have damaged Lyon's bowling hand. Now he can just cause injuries to the other 3....

Really disappointed with Ali in this series so far. He has been one of our most consistent players over the last couple of years but to keep getting out to 50mph non turning dollies when your team is under pressure is really good not enough.

MikeSmithson said:

This may sound crazy but who is Anthony Joshua? I had never heard of him until last night. Boxing is really a very minority sport and it's not shown much on mainstream television.

I remember him from the Olympics but not so much since to be honest. Boxing is nothing like as popular as it was 40 years ago despite the UK having more champions than ever. Not exactly a vintage year though with a shadow over Froome.

Broad goes of a duck. There was a time that he wasn't a tail ender but that was a long time ago.

Yowch. Poor Jimmy in the wars first up.

Casino_Royale said:

Very fair thread header.

The interesting political event this week is the cabinet debate tomorrow. And whether, indeed, it is a real debate.

Agreed. There's amazingly little coverage of it, since it may well decide the shape of Britain's future for decades to come. Journalists seem to have classified it as "too difficult" to write about.

Casino_Royale said:

Recidivist said:

The BMG poll may turn out to be an outlier, or it may be the first indication that the mood is shifting. We won't know for a while. But it isn't important whether or not it indicates if a rerun of the 2016 referendum would give a different result today. The Brexit project is on and will have to run its course, and just how it turns out will determine the UK's future relationship with the EU. The fact that leading Brexiters have only just realised that post-leaving we are going to have to ape a lot of EU regulations isn't encouraging for the idea that Brexit will be any kind of success. That this situation can be described as being in a 'vassal state' isn't encouraging that they have got much of a grip on reality.

Different to what you said yesterday, of course, when you said it was "all over".

The details weren't out when I wrote that. In fact it was you that alerted me to them. I thought we were looking at a 10% swing in opinion since the late summer. I found it credible because I had just been talking to a specialist retailer whose takings were down on previous years to the tune of going from typically £3,000 in the penultimate week before Xmas to zero this year. Not a farthing. Bugger all. He was blaming Brexit even though he had voted for it. I don't imagine his business is typical or even representative but it does suggest that shoppers are not spending as much as they used to and that in turn indicates that Brexit might be beginning to have a big effect on the real economy.

But yes I have changed my mind as new data has come to light. Lets see how the trend develops.

'The only person more useless than an English batsman is Nick Timothy.' Discuss.

ydoethur said:

'The only person more useless than an English batsman is Nick Timothy.' Discuss.

Do I take it your school has broken up for Christmas?

ydoethur said:

'The only person more useless than an English batsman is Nick Timothy.' Discuss.

That’s ever so harsh on Nick Timothy!

Mo Farah 83,524
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683

2016:

Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476

2015:

Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.

2014:

Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Metatron/Mr. Recidivist, that's an interesting question. If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?

Edited extra bit: gutted Farah won SPOTY, but only because I'd backed him last year and not this. Checked the odds a few hours beforehand, Joshua was layable at about 1.16, Hamilton around 14, Froome likewise, and everyone else was enormous.

Maybe the lesson for SPOTY is to lay the favourite?

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

'The only person more useless than an English batsman is Nick Timothy.' Discuss.

Do I take it your school has broken up for Christmas?

It has, yes. A great relief!

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Metatron/Mr. Recidivist, that's an interesting question. If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?

Edited extra bit: gutted Farah won SPOTY, but only because I'd backed him last year and not this. Checked the odds a few hours beforehand, Joshua was layable at about 1.16, Hamilton around 14, Froome likewise, and everyone else was enormous.

Maybe the lesson for SPOTY is to lay the favourite?

If the voting drops much more, it'll be possible to decide it by you and a few mates being arsed to take part.....

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

'The only person more useless than an English batsman is Nick Timothy.' Discuss.

Do I take it your school has broken up for Christmas?

It has, yes. A great relief!

Slacker.

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

'The only person more useless than an English batsman is Nick Timothy.' Discuss.

Do I take it your school has broken up for Christmas?

It has, yes. A great relief!

Slacker.

You know me Nigel, I jut don't ever do any work.

malcolmg said:

NickPalmer said:

tlg86 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This may sound crazy but who is Anthony Joshua? I had never heard of him until last night. Boxing is really a very minority sport and it's not shown much on mainstream television.

Interesting. Lennox Lewis in 1999 drew with Holyfield in March and then won in November. Calzaghe won his big fight against Kessler in November 2007 and benefited from the publicity surrounding the Mayweather v Hatton fight which Hatton lost.

So I wonder if Joshua suffered from his big win coming in the summer.

There's an element of punter bias here, I think. The male-dominated Dusk Till Dawn poker club in Nottingham routinely shows boxing on the screens, as do other clubs I've played in - I once complained that the volume was turned up really loud for the final and was told by several people that 80% of the attendees were keen - as they seemed to be.

If, as I suspect, Betfair also have a predominantly male audience, then punters may overestimate the chances of boxers in a wider contest like SPOTY, where name recognition is key. I've little interest in sport, but I know Mo Farah's name well and if I'd voted it might have been for him.

In the same way, ironically, I've been making modest profits out of betting on cricket, simply by assuming there's a Betfair bias to backing England in anything, so laying England tends to be good value. If one can spot a punter bias and is cold-blooded enough not to bet with one's heart, it can be profitable.

Helps that England are so crap

Cue jokes about Murray having been very British last year and very Scottish this...

malcolmg said:

NickPalmer said:

tlg86 said:

MikeSmithson said:

This may sound crazy but who is Anthony Joshua? I had never heard of him until last night. Boxing is really a very minority sport and it's not shown much on mainstream television.

Interesting. Lennox Lewis in 1999 drew with Holyfield in March and then won in November. Calzaghe won his big fight against Kessler in November 2007 and benefited from the publicity surrounding the Mayweather v Hatton fight which Hatton lost.

So I wonder if Joshua suffered from his big win coming in the summer.

There's an element of punter bias here, I think. The male-dominated Dusk Till Dawn poker club in Nottingham routinely shows boxing on the screens, as do other clubs I've played in - I once complained that the volume was turned up really loud for the final and was told by several people that 80% of the attendees were keen - as they seemed to be.

If, as I suspect, Betfair also have a predominantly male audience, then punters may overestimate the chances of boxers in a wider contest like SPOTY, where name recognition is key. I've little interest in sport, but I know Mo Farah's name well and if I'd voted it might have been for him.

In the same way, ironically, I've been making modest profits out of betting on cricket, simply by assuming there's a Betfair bias to backing England in anything, so laying England tends to be good value. If one can spot a punter bias and is cold-blooded enough not to bet with one's heart, it can be profitable.

Helps that England are so crap

Technically England and Wales of course, not that it would have made much difference this time

One result certainly wasn't a shock, Federer won overseas SPOTY.

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Mo Farah 83,524
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683

2016:

Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476

2015:

Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.

2014:

Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219

Such a dramatic drop in votes is just a recognition that the BBC =/= sport.

If they had any sense, they would quitly drop it.

Or let SKY buy it.

I'm not sure that's it, I think this year there just hasn't been any outstanding sporting performance by a British individual worthy of the BBC buildup. In previous years there has always been a standout person to win. This year Mo Farrah has won it, but he didn't have the best sporting year of his own career.

I can't think of a standout performance by an individual from 2017.

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Mo Farah 83,524
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683

2016:

Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476

2015:

Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.

2014:

Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219

Such a dramatic drop in votes is just a recognition that the BBC =/= sport.

If they had any sense, they would quitly drop it.

Or let SKY buy it.

I'm not sure that's it, I think this year there just hasn't been any outstanding sporting performance by a British individual worthy of the BBC buildup. In previous years there has always been a standout person to win. This year Mo Farrah has won it, but he didn't have the best sporting year of his own career.

I can't think of a standout performance by an individual from 2017.

Mo should arguably have won it last year so last year, he still won one world title this year and it was his last year of track and field so he deserved it.

Hamilton has already won it, Joshua has plenty of time to win it and Froome is too marred in controversy.

Mr Dancer,

"If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?"

If I were the proverbial Metropolitan Elite, what would I do? Definitely slowly stifle the progress towards leave until it gets bogged down in amendments, points of order, and legal challenges until the electorate is thoroughly fed-up. Then announce a tidying-up operation which means we go no further.

Make sure no one party can be blamed for the debacle so as to maintain a HoC common purpose. We'd end up with the worst of all worlds but mission achieved. Onward with the Euro State.

A second referendum is too easy to criticise, the BBC would have to have three weeks of neutrality, and the Barnier/Juncker duo are too risky.

brendan16 said:

TonyE said:

Metatron said:

If one starts to get consistent polls giving remain 10 points leads then a 2nd referendum becomes more and more likely.Thinking Tories must realise that Brexit produces lots of losers afterwards those losers will blame them for not giving a 2nd referedum

A couple of issues come up here.
1) Leave had a large lead going into the referendum if you believe the polls.
2) There is an opportunity for polling companies to use particular methodologies to create a narrative, knowing that this narrative could drive a particular outcome. Many people already think that polling is simply a way to lead or reinforce opinion rather then a gauge of it. That may or may not be true, I have no evidence either way, but the perception of it quite prevalent.

Ten of the last 13 polls before the referendum had remain ahead by up to 10 per cent?

Who says some or all of them aren't still getting it wrong big time? Cos if we believed the vast majority of polls Brexit wouldn't be happening!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

A year before the vote, it was the best polls for Leave that had them 10% behind. MORI had them 44% behind.

CD13 said:

Mr Dancer,

"If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?"

If I were the proverbial Metropolitan Elite, what would I do? Definitely slowly stifle the progress towards leave until it gets bogged down in amendments, points of order, and legal challenges until the electorate is thoroughly fed-up. Then announce a tidying-up operation which means we go no further.

Make sure no one party can be blamed for the debacle so as to maintain a HoC common purpose. We'd end up with the worst of all worlds but mission achieved. Onward with the Euro State.

A second referendum is too easy to criticise, the BBC would have to have three weeks of neutrality, and the Barnier/Juncker duo are too risky.

And UKIP would have a quicker revival than Lazarus if the 3 main parties reversed Brexit between them in the Commons with no second referendum, as the SNP proved in 2015 you can win a landslide under FPTP even if you lose a referendum and are behind in the polls by 10%. Even 35% could be enough to make UKIP largest party.

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Mo Farah 83,524
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683

2016:

Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476

2015:

Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.

2014:

Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219

Such a dramatic drop in votes is just a recognition that the BBC =/= sport.

If they had any sense, they would quitly drop it.

Or let SKY buy it.

I'm not sure that's it, I think this year there just hasn't been any outstanding sporting performance by a British individual worthy of the BBC buildup. In previous years there has always been a standout person to win. This year Mo Farrah has won it, but he didn't have the best sporting year of his own career.

I can't think of a standout performance by an individual from 2017.

Not AJ getting off the canvas vs Klitschko and then getting a stoppage?

Not when Tyson Fury toyed with Kiltschko two years ago. That really diminished Joshua's victory. He should never have been on the canvass.

brendan16 said:

CD13 said:

Mr Dancer,

"If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?"

If I were the proverbial Metropolitan Elite, what would I do? Definitely slowly stifle the progress towards leave until it gets bogged down in amendments, points of order, and legal challenges until the electorate is thoroughly fed-up. Then announce a tidying-up operation which means we go no further.

Make sure no one party can be blamed for the debacle so as to maintain a HoC common purpose. We'd end up with the worst of all worlds but mission achieved. Onward with the Euro State.

A second referendum is too easy to criticise, the BBC would have to have three weeks of neutrality, and the Barnier/Juncker duo are too risky.

Bar the process vote on a meaningful vote the Tories defeated every single amendment by 15 votes or more. When it came to the crunch on the substance the government has got its way so far in the Commons.. Are Tory MPs - even Soubry and Morgan - really going to vote down the final deal the government has negotiated?

The place of course where it could be delayed and blocked by the 'proverbial Metropolitan elite' is in the Lords. You can imagine how the tabloids would play it when it emerged unelected Peers were seeking to sabotage the 'will of the people' and the Commons! Voters might get bored or alternatively they might get rather annoyed with the Lords.

Tory voters are becoming more pro Brexit according to BMG - so why would the Tories drop something their supporters rather like.

If the Government needs to find a couple of thousand who would happily be a "Peer for a Year" to get Brexit through, it knows where to find us....

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Mo Farah 83,524
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683

2016:

Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476

2015:

Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.

2014:

Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219

Such a dramatic drop in votes is just a recognition that the BBC =/= sport.

If they had any sense, they would quitly drop it.

Or let SKY buy it.

I'm not sure that's it, I think this year there just hasn't been any outstanding sporting performance by a British individual worthy of the BBC buildup. In previous years there has always been a standout person to win. This year Mo Farrah has won it, but he didn't have the best sporting year of his own career.

I can't think of a standout performance by an individual from 2017.

Not AJ getting off the canvas vs Klitschko and then getting a stoppage?

Not when Tyson Fury toyed with Kiltschko two years ago. That really diminished Joshua's victory. He should never have been on the canvass.

It’s true; I blame Klitschko's complacency but that's a weak excuse.

But as they say you can only beat what's in front of you and so far he is world champion. We'll see what next year brings.

HYUFD said:

brendan16 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Metatron/Mr. Recidivist, that's an interesting question. If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?

Edited extra bit: gutted Farah won SPOTY, but only because I'd backed him last year and not this. Checked the odds a few hours beforehand, Joshua was layable at about 1.16, Hamilton around 14, Froome likewise, and everyone else was enormous.

Maybe the lesson for SPOTY is to lay the favourite?

If you delve deeper into the poll results - bearing in mind all the provisos above - support for leaving amongst Tory voters has increased according to BMG and is running at about 70 to 30. It's amongst Lib Dem and Labour voters on this poll where there has been a shift to remain - at least on the raw figures - as per the up down arrows BMG use.

Not quite sure why the Tories would drop a policy that is becoming increasingly popular with their own supporters - assuming we believe the BMG numbers? They won a majority in 2015 with 63 per cent of voters not voting for them.

Most voters don't like much of what the Tories are doing in government - but you don't need a majority of voters to win elections.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/CONFIDENTIAL-BMG-Independent-Poll-December-2017-EU-Ref-Tracker.xlsx

In fact more June 2017 Tories now support Leave than June 2017 Labour voters back Remain, a reverse of the June 2016 when more Tory voters voted Remain than Labour voters voted Leave.
LD and SNP voters strongly back Remain.

If Brexit was a thing like hanging that had no effect on anything else that would be a really strong argument. The trouble is that Brexit affects a lot of other things. The Tories could easily lose votes because say the NHS isn't performing as people expect it. That the reason is the lack of staff because of lower levels of immigration won't stop Brexit supporters switching votes away from the Tories.

IDS is doing his best to make John McDonnell look like the safe choice for the economy.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/942667033170399232

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Mo Farah 83,524
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683

2016:

Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476

2015:

Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.

2014:

Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219

Such a dramatic drop in votes is just a recognition that the BBC =/= sport.

If they had any sense, they would quitly drop it.

Or let SKY buy it.

I'm not sure that's it, I think this year there just hasn't been any outstanding sporting performance by a British individual worthy of the BBC buildup. In previous years there has always been a standout person to win. This year Mo Farrah has won it, but he didn't have the best sporting year of his own career.

I can't think of a standout performance by an individual from 2017.

Not AJ getting off the canvas vs Klitschko and then getting a stoppage?

Not when Tyson Fury toyed with Kiltschko two years ago. That really diminished Joshua's victory. He should never have been on the canvass.

It’s true; I blame Klitschko's complacency but that's a weak excuse.

But as they say you can only beat what's in front of you and so far he is world champion. We'll see what next year brings.

Nah, I think Klitschko couldn't handle Fury's carney boxing style but found it much easier against the more traditional Joshua. If anything it was Klitschko's complacency that allowed Joshua to get back in it, he could have finished Joshua a number of times, but maybe it's because he's older and slower he couldn't. Either way Fury doing the business in a much easier fashion two years prior is why Joshua didn't win last night. The match was memorable, but it wasn't an outstanding performance. Fury's probably was in 2015, though.

That is a fair enough view

Phew, thank goodness this isn't representative of a significant strand of national opinion.

https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/942684465003945984


https://twitter.com/goddersbloom/status/942664507939319809

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

TOPPING said:

MaxPB said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Mo Farah 83,524
Jonathan Rea 80,567
Jonnie Peacock 73,429
Anthony Joshua 73,411
Adam Peaty 63,739
Lewis Hamilton 60,627
Chris Froome 47,683

2016:

Murray received 247,419 votes, Brownlee 121,665 and Skelton 109,197, Farah 54476

2015:

Scot Murray, 28, won 361,446 of the 1,009,498 votes cast (35%), with Sinfield getting 278,353 (28%) and Ennis-Hill 78,898 (8%), Tyson Fury 72330.

2014:

Lewis Hamilton - F1 - 209,920
Rory McIlroy - golf - 123,745
Jo Pavey - athletics - 99,913
Charlotte Dujardin - dressage - 75,814
Lizzy Yarnold - skeleton - 23,188
Max Whitlock - gymnastics - 17,219

Such a dramatic drop in votes is just a recognition that the BBC =/= sport.

If they had any sense, they would quitly drop it.

Or let SKY buy it.

I'm not sure that's it, I think this year there just hasn't been any outstanding sporting performance by a British individual worthy of the BBC buildup. In previous years there has always been a standout person to win. This year Mo Farrah has won it, but he didn't have the best sporting year of his own career.

I can't think of a standout performance by an individual from 2017.

Not AJ getting off the canvas vs Klitschko and then getting a stoppage?

Not when Tyson Fury toyed with Kiltschko two years ago. That really diminished Joshua's victory. He should never have been on the canvass.

It’s true; I blame Klitschko's complacency but that's a weak excuse.

But as they say you can only beat what's in front of you and so far he is world champion. We'll see what next year brings.

Nah, I think Klitschko couldn't handle Fury's carney boxing style but found it much easier against the more traditional Joshua. If anything it was Klitschko's complacency that allowed Joshua to get back in it, he could have finished Joshua a number of times, but maybe it's because he's older and slower he couldn't. Either way Fury doing the business in a much easier fashion two years prior is why Joshua didn't win last night. The match was memorable, but it wasn't an outstanding performance. Fury's probably was in 2015, though.

Surely the point is that it's "Sports Personality" of the year. For me, if I had to pick a sportsman whose attitude and personality is the key element, I would pick Joshua. The way that he handled that fight with Klitchko, before, during and after the event, is the point to note. (Though admittedly, Klitchko himself also played a huge role in making that possible).

williamglenn said:

IDS is doing his best to make John McDonnell look like the safe choice for the economy.
https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/942667033170399232

It is May who decides not IDS, if IDS was in charge there would be no trade deal with the EU just straight to hard Brexit

hamiltonace said:

HYUFD said:

CD13 said:

Mr Dancer,

"If there are persistently large leads for Remain in polling, would it be likelier for a Commons revocation or a second referendum to occur?"

If I were the proverbial Metropolitan Elite, what would I do? Definitely slowly stifle the progress towards leave until it gets bogged down in amendments, points of order, and legal challenges until the electorate is thoroughly fed-up. Then announce a tidying-up operation which means we go no further.

Make sure no one party can be blamed for the debacle so as to maintain a HoC common purpose. We'd end up with the worst of all worlds but mission achieved. Onward with the Euro State.

A second referendum is too easy to criticise, the BBC would have to have three weeks of neutrality, and the Barnier/Juncker duo are too risky.

And UKIP would have a quicker revival than Lazarus if the 3 main parties reversed Brexit between them in the Commons with no second referendum, as the SNP proved in 2015 you can win a landslide under FPTP even if you lose a referendum and are behind in the polls by 10%. Even 35% could be enough to make UKIP largest party.

In England there is no doubt that the Tories are worried about UKIP but this is not the case in Scotland. A hard Brexit would threaten all the 12 seats won last year under a non hard Bexit manifesto. TM needs to thread the eye of a needle. If she veers too anti EU she will lose the commons but if she veers too close to the EU she fears a UKIP revival.

Which is why her FTA that ends free movement is the ideal solution.

Of course Labour should be worried about a UKIP revival too, Corbyn won 20% of 2015 UKIP voters