politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we edge towards to the year end three seasonal political be

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.

The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.

I think it'll be GE2022, because the Government will want to bank some quick wins in the first 12 months post-Brexit: think new immigration controls, blue passports, a few new trade deals, and extra cash for the NHS.

The next election will hinge on leadership, the economy and whether austerity has ended or not, though, with the Conservatives having a harder time making the running just due to being in office for 12 years.

Much also depends on the economy

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

Australian ABC news projects John Alexander has won the by election today in Bennelong (John Howard's old seat) for the governing LNP coalition after a close fight with Labor. That will provide some relief to PM Turnbull and ensure he keeps his very narrow 1 seat majority. The by election was called after Alexander was found to be half British and he has now renounced his dual nationality to stay in the Parliament


http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-16/liberal-john-alexander-to-win-bennelong-by-election-antony-green/9265316

"Found to be half-British" - that's weird. Most Australians have British heritage, and there's over a million Brits living there.

True. The last PM Tony Abbott was born in London too and both he and Turnbull went to Oxford, indeed apart from New Zealand Australia is the most British nation in the world, hence the Ashes still has such resonance.

However for some reason you cannot legally be a dual citizen and an Australian MP

https://twitter.com/BigSportGB/status/941952752883728384

Recidivist said:

Sean_F said:

Benpointer said:

Dura_Ace said:

MaxPB said:

Rudd isn't in a safe enough seat. She's very vulnerable to being out of the commons, no way can she be the next leader.

If Joe 90 loses her seat then the Horde have lost the GE and will be replacing her as leader anyway so her marginal status is irrelevant.

I disagree, I don't think that takes the demographics in Hastings (and the way this is changing) into account; think Brighton but 40 years behind. I could well see the Tories scraping a narrow majority overall but losing Hastings at the next GE.

I'm surprised that the Conservatives still hold Hastings. I guess the Conservative vote in Rye and other outlying villages is so overwhelming that it enables them to just about hold the seat.

I don't think people in Rye think of themselves as an outlying village. But you are right. There is a solid Tory vote there and it will not be an easy seat for Labour even in a good year.

Population of Rye = circa 5,000; population of Hastings = circa 90,000.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I remember when Verstappen fell from 251 to 51. Nothing to do with me, of course, but that was quite the tumble. And still overpriced, as it turned out.

Cheers for your tip. When's the final result?

Around 8.45pmish

Given that the result is down to the public vote I'd be surprised if it's anything else than:

1) Joe
2) Debbie
3) Alexandra
4) Gemma

Personally, lost interest since Mollie and AJ were eliminated. OK, she couldn't really dance, but they were soooh cute together!

RochdalePioneers said:

Write off the Mogg at your peril. The only issue in town is Brexit, not only is the issue not finished but a significant body of opinion is forming that the direction of travel is a BETRAYAL.

A chap who can represent that thinking whilst looking and sounding like a proper Tory for a change (unlike these so-called 'modernisers' like Cameron and May) will go a long way. And once members and associations make that clear to their MPs I can't see how he fails to make the final two. And then win.

Mogg vs Corbyn. I bet the Lib Dems still fail to get more than a dozen seats...

Associations do not make these things clear to MPs and even if they did, the MPs would ignore them. Unlike Labour's silly rules, Tory MPs votes are secret for good reason.

Gadfly said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

[Apologies for ropey Latin].

If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.

I concur that it is not unreasonable to think that the system might be struggling, but for the record, the Times has today published a letter from the Director of Public Prosecutions, Alison Saunders, in which she says "It is incorrect to suggest that the CPS would withhold such data in order to save costs. The CPS is clear about its obligations to disclose relevant material that could assist the defence case. Cost considerations play no part in decisions over disclosure."

Without doubt, all the emergency services are at breaking point due to chronic under funding but this case just seems plain wrong.

Dura_Ace said:

Casino_Royale said:

Great tips, David.

I'm also considering Gavin Williamson at 50/1. Yes, he's being bloody obvious about it, but he's made an impressive start, and is clearly hungry for it (and ruthless enough to fight for it) and some of his moves in Defence are very much calculated to appeal to the Tory base.

Williamson is Steerpike made flesh.

If ever he had harboured a conscience in his tough narrow breast he had by now dug out and flung away the awkward thing — flung it so far away that were he ever to need it again he could never find it. High-shouldered to a degree little short of malformation, slender and adroit of limb and frame, his eyes close-set and the colour of dried blood, he is climbing the spiral staircase of the soul of Gormenghast, bound for some pinnacle of the itching fancy — some wild, invulnerable eyrie best known to himself; where he can watch the world spread out below him, and shake exultantly his clotted wings

"If one good deed in all my life I did,
I do repent it with my very soul."

ThomasNashe said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, I remember when Verstappen fell from 251 to 51. Nothing to do with me, of course, but that was quite the tumble. And still overpriced, as it turned out.

Cheers for your tip. When's the final result?

Around 8.45pmish

Given that the result is down to the public vote I'd be surprised if it's anything else than:

1) Joe
2) Debbie
3) Alexandra
4) Gemma

Personally, lost interest since Mollie and AJ were eliminated. OK, she couldn't really dance, but they were soooh cute together!

In a four horse race is she really a 4% chance?

She’s been in fewer dance offs than Alexandra and as many as Debbie.

ThomasNashe said:

david_herdson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Write off the Mogg at your peril. The only issue in town is Brexit, not only is the issue not finished but a significant body of opinion is forming that the direction of travel is a BETRAYAL.

A chap who can represent that thinking whilst looking and sounding like a proper Tory for a change (unlike these so-called 'modernisers' like Cameron and May) will go a long way. And once members and associations make that clear to their MPs I can't see how he fails to make the final two. And then win.

Mogg vs Corbyn. I bet the Lib Dems still fail to get more than a dozen seats...

Associations do not make these things clear to MPs and even if they did, the MPs would ignore them. Unlike Labour's silly rules, Tory MPs votes are secret for good reason.

Thankfully, pragmatism appears to have won over ideology in the last week or so. And I just can't see him getting the backing of more than a handful of Tory MPs.

Indeed. Why would they put their own, never mind their party's, future in the hands of someone who is completely untested in ministerial office, in any ability to manage a party or run an election, and who goes out of his way to appear out of touch, both personally and in some of his social attitudes?

It should be remembered that in Labour - with Momentum types (for which there's no Tory equivalent) and with open nominations - the PLP still remain overwhelmingly opposed to Corbyn, even if much more quietly these days.

ThomasNashe said:

david_herdson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Write off the Mogg at your peril. The only issue in town is Brexit, not only is the issue not finished but a significant body of opinion is forming that the direction of travel is a BETRAYAL.

A chap who can represent that thinking whilst looking and sounding like a proper Tory for a change (unlike these so-called 'modernisers' like Cameron and May) will go a long way. And once members and associations make that clear to their MPs I can't see how he fails to make the final two. And then win.

Mogg vs Corbyn. I bet the Lib Dems still fail to get more than a dozen seats...

Associations do not make these things clear to MPs and even if they did, the MPs would ignore them. Unlike Labour's silly rules, Tory MPs votes are secret for good reason.

Thankfully, pragmatism appears to have won over ideology in the last week or so. And I just can't see him getting the backing of more than a handful of Tory MPs.

The full consequences of that welcome pragmatism will only gradually become completely clear over the course of the next year. It will not be pretty on the Tory benches. But they can scrap away happy in the knowledge that the Corbyn firewall will keep them competitive.

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Mortimer said:

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Hmmmm ....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-strengthen-uk-data-protection-law

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.

The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.

I think it'll be GE2022, because the Government will want to bank some quick wins in the first 12 months post-Brexit: think new immigration controls, blue passports, a few new trade deals, and extra cash for the NHS.

The next election will hinge on leadership, the economy and whether austerity has ended or not, though, with the Conservatives having a harder time making the running just due to being in office for 12 years.

I doubt we’ll have any trade deals by 2022. No-one’s going to do one with us until our final relationship with the EU is sorted out. Then there’ll have to be negotiations. Liam Fox will be doing nothing but collecting air miles for the next few years. We could have blue passports now. I’m really durprised it hasn’t happened. As you say, it would be a very quick win.

You doubt, because you are pessimism personified.

The future framework of our relationship with the EU will be negotiated by March 2019, when we'll be formally out. The 2-year transition period will be used to negotiate deals to take effect in 2021, whereupon the new relationship with the EU will also take effect.

It's not as simple as you suggest, regarding blue passports.

Blue passports are another one of those Remainer tropes. Never heard any Leavers actually asking for them.....

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.

The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.

I think it'll be GE2022, because the Government will want to bank some quick wins in the first 12 months post-Brexit: think new immigration controls, blue passports, a few new trade deals, and extra cash for the NHS.

The next election will hinge on leadership, the economy and whether austerity has ended or not, though, with the Conservatives having a harder time making the running just due to being in office for 12 years.

I doubt we’ll have any trade deals by 2022. No-one’s going to do one with us until our final relationship with the EU is sorted out. Then there’ll have to be negotiations. Liam Fox will be doing nothing but collecting air miles for the next few years. We could have blue passports now. I’m really durprised it hasn’t happened. As you say, it would be a very quick win.

You doubt, because you are pessimism personified.

The future framework of our relationship with the EU will be negotiated by March 2019, when we'll be formally out. The 2-year transition period will be used to negotiate deals to take effect in 2021, whereupon the new relationship with the EU will also take effect.

It's not as simple as you suggest, regarding blue passports.

OK. I'm a remainer, but for me blue passports would not be a 'quick win' at all. 1) Aesthetically, I prefer the burgundy ones but, more importantly; 2) symbolically, I would no longer be identified as an EU citizen. EU citizenship is something I value highly, and find in no way incompatible with being a British citizen.

MaxPB said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Gadfly said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

[Apologies for ropey Latin].

If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.

I concur that it is not unreasonable to think that the system might be struggling, but for the record, the Times has today published a letter from the Director of Public Prosecutions, Alison Saunders, in which she says "It is incorrect to suggest that the CPS would withhold such data in order to save costs. The CPS is clear about its obligations to disclose relevant material that could assist the defence case. Cost considerations play no part in decisions over disclosure."

Without doubt, all the emergency services are at breaking point due to chronic under funding but this case just seems plain wrong.

It definitely looks like the police thought they could withhold the key evidence to get their prosecution rate up. This whole rubbish about how few rape cases end in a prosecution has put too much pressure on them to try and game the cases and lock up innocent people. Just so they can get the numbers. Disgusting.

It's difficult to tell whether the police behaviour was deliberate wrongful behaviour, or simply incompetence - though there is reportedly an attitude of 'if in doubt let the courts sort it out' regarding rape cases.

As far as the CPS is concerned, there is clearly a long standing systemic problem with disclosure of evidence, as clearly set out in this report by the CPS inspectorate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40638513

Addressing clearly identified problems is obviously more difficult when resources are stretched (and Hayes himself says the cuts have taken things to breaking point), but there seems to be an utter lack of effective leadership.
The CPS statement about the case was disgraceful.

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Hmmmm ....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-strengthen-uk-data-protection-law

A close mate was in Ox when our class lists were posted - he text to let me know I had a 2:2.

His text saying 'only joking' took about 5 minutes to arrive. Painful - but character building

So you got a Douglas then ?

My croquet improved immeasurably during Finals, though.

Why did Oxford get rid of theirs in 2009?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Hmmmm ....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-strengthen-uk-data-protection-law

A close mate was in Ox when our class lists were posted - he text to let me know I had a 2:2.

His text saying 'only joking' took about 5 minutes to arrive. Painful - but character building

So you got a Douglas then ?

My croquet improved immeasurably during Finals, though.

Why did Oxford get rid of theirs in 2009?

No idea. Bizarre.

Class lists are very meritocratic.

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

HYUFD said:

2021 is also a strong bet for the date of the next general election, as that would also be after Brexit and just as the transition period would be ending.

The Tory membership will also be likely to pick a Leaver to succeed May and to ensure we do genuinely leave both the EU and single market and end free movement post Brexit. Boris, JRM and Davis and Gove all stand a chance but I think MPs will likely put forward Davis and Rudd and the membership would then pick Davis. Let us also not forget Cameron only won with the membership in 2005 after the party had been in opposition for 8 years, in 2001 members put purity over proven ability and IDS easily beat Clarke with opposition to the Euro proving the pivotal litmus test. I expect being a proven Leaver to be the key litmus test next time.

I think it'll be GE2022, because the Government will want to bank some quick wins in the first 12 months post-Brexit: think new immigration controls, blue passports, a few new trade deals, and extra cash for the NHS.

The next election will hinge on leadership, the economy and whether austerity has ended or not, though, with the Conservatives having a harder time making the running just due to being in office for 12 years.

I doubt we’ll have any trade deals by 2022. No-one’s going to do one with us until our final relationship with the EU is sorted out. Then there’ll have to be negotiations. Liam Fox will be doing nothing but collecting air miles for the next few years. We could have blue passports now. I’m really durprised it hasn’t happened. As you say, it would be a very quick win.

You doubt, because you are pessimism personified.

The future framework of our relationship with the EU will be negotiated by March 2019, when we'll be formally out. The 2-year transition period will be used to negotiate deals to take effect in 2021, whereupon the new relationship with the EU will also take effect.

It's not as simple as you suggest, regarding blue passports.

No, I doubt because I know trade deals take a long time to do and no sane country would agree anything with the UK until they are completely clear on what the UK’s final relationship with the EU will be: how far our laws & regulations will be aligned, the level of access UK-based businesses will have to the single market, and so on. The attractiveness of the UK as a free trade partner and the kind of concessions that both sides would make to get a deal will be dependent on how Brexit turns out. There is also the issue of bandwidth - you can’t just whistle up trade negotiators. If ours are working on a complex disengagement from the EU, they will not be working on other stuff.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Gadfly said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

[Apologies for ropey Latin].

If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.

I concur that it is not unreasonable to think that the system might be struggling, but for the record, the Times has today published a letter from the Director of Public Prosecutions, Alison Saunders, in which she says "It is incorrect to suggest that the CPS would withhold such data in order to save costs. The CPS is clear about its obligations to disclose relevant material that could assist the defence case. Cost considerations play no part in decisions over disclosure."

Without doubt, all the emergency services are at breaking point due to chronic under funding but this case just seems plain wrong.

It definitely looks like the police thought they could withhold the key evidence to get their prosecution rate up. This whole rubbish about how few rape cases end in a prosecution has put too much pressure on them to try and game the cases and lock up innocent people. Just so they can get the numbers. Disgusting.

It's difficult to tell whether the police behaviour was deliberate wrongful behaviour, or simply incompetence - though there is reportedly an attitude of 'if in doubt let the courts sort it out' regarding rape cases.

As far as the CPS is concerned, there is clearly a long standing systemic problem with disclosure of evidence, as clearly set out in this report by the CPS inspectorate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40638513

Addressing clearly identified problems is obviously more difficult when resources are stretched (and Hayes himself says the cuts have taken things to breaking point), but there seems to be an utter lack of effective leadership.
The CPS statement about the case was disgraceful.

Apparently there were 40,000 messages through various platforms.

Seems like somebody couldn’t be arsed to go through them all.

Will the accuser be charged for false accusations? Perjury, perhaps?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Gadfly said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

[Apologies for ropey Latin].

If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.

I concur that it is not unreasonable to think that the system might be struggling, but for the record, the Times has today published a letter from the Director of Public Prosecutions, Alison Saunders, in which she says "It is incorrect to suggest that the CPS would withhold such data in order to save costs. The CPS is clear about its obligations to disclose relevant material that could assist the defence case. Cost considerations play no part in decisions over disclosure."

Without doubt, all the emergency services are at breaking point due to chronic under funding but this case just seems plain wrong.

It definitely looks like the police thought they could withhold the key evidence to get their prosecution rate up. This whole rubbish about how few rape cases end in a prosecution has put too much pressure on them to try and game the cases and lock up innocent people. Just so they can get the numbers. Disgusting.

It's difficult to tell whether the police behaviour was deliberate wrongful behaviour, or simply incompetence - though there is reportedly an attitude of 'if in doubt let the courts sort it out' regarding rape cases.

As far as the CPS is concerned, there is clearly a long standing systemic problem with disclosure of evidence, as clearly set out in this report by the CPS inspectorate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40638513

Addressing clearly identified problems is obviously more difficult when resources are stretched (and Hayes himself says the cuts have taken things to breaking point), but there seems to be an utter lack of effective leadership.
The CPS statement about the case was disgraceful.

Apparently there were 40,000 messages through various platforms.

Seems like somebody couldn’t be arsed to go through them all.

Will the accuser be charged for false accusations? Perjury, perhaps?

Unlikely. Will look like the CPS trying to deflect from their huge mistake.

Plus as a rule they don’t like charging complainants in these sorts of crimes lest it puts off others coming forward.

Mr. Eagles, if the case just isn't proven I think that's fair enough. But if an accuser has been proved or there's strong evidence she (or he) has lied to maliciously make a false accusation that should absolutely be prosecuted.

The media, police and politicians should recall justice is for everyone, both the accusers and the accused.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Hmmmm ....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-strengthen-uk-data-protection-law

A close mate was in Ox when our class lists were posted - he text to let me know I had a 2:2.

His text saying 'only joking' took about 5 minutes to arrive. Painful - but character building

And what is wrong with a Desmond?

In Mod. History? I think 4 people in the entire year got a Tutu.

Mortimer said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Hmmmm ....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-strengthen-uk-data-protection-law

A close mate was in Ox when our class lists were posted - he text to let me know I had a 2:2.

His text saying 'only joking' took about 5 minutes to arrive. Painful - but character building

And what is wrong with a Desmond?

In Mod. History? I think 4 people in the entire year got a Tutu.

So you’re just like George Osborne CH?

He too got a 2:1 in Modern History.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

Gadfly said:

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. F, easier to blame the evil government than take responsibility for a massive screw-up.

Mr. Punter, quis eligiet ipsos eligeres?

[Apologies for ropey Latin].

If you consider the significant cuts in police and justice funding, then it's not unreasonable to think the system might be struggling.
On the other hand, bringing unnecessary or plainly unjust cases to court simply compounds the problem.

...Cost considerations play no part in decisions over disclosure."

Without doubt, all the emergency services are at breaking point due to chronic under funding but this case just seems plain wrong.

It definitely looks like the police thought they could withhold the key evidence to get their prosecution rate up. This whole rubbish about how few rape cases end in a prosecution has put too much pressure on them to try and game the cases and lock up innocent people. Just so they can get the numbers. Disgusting.

It's difficult to tell whether the police behaviour was deliberate wrongful behaviour, or simply incompetence - though there is reportedly an attitude of 'if in doubt let the courts sort it out' regarding rape cases.

As far as the CPS is concerned, there is clearly a long standing systemic problem with disclosure of evidence, as clearly set out in this report by the CPS inspectorate:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40638513

Addressing clearly identified problems is obviously more difficult when resources are stretched (and Hayes himself says the cuts have taken things to breaking point), but there seems to be an utter lack of effective leadership.
The CPS statement about the case was disgraceful.

Apparently there were 40,000 messages through various platforms.

Seems like somebody couldn’t be arsed to go through them all.

And then refused the evidence to the defense on the grounds there was nothing material in there.
Failure properly to review, and refusal to disclose evidence is a systemic problem leading to numerous miscarriages of justice - in this case only averted by a persistent trial lawyer and a judge ordered disclosure.

The young man involved lost two years of his life, and was extremely lucky to escape a wrongful conviction.
The CPS statement makes it sound as though the system worked as it should.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Mortimer said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Hmmmm ....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-strengthen-uk-data-protection-law

A close mate was in Ox when our class lists were posted - he text to let me know I had a 2:2.

His text saying 'only joking' took about 5 minutes to arrive. Painful - but character building

And what is wrong with a Desmond?

In Mod. History? I think 4 people in the entire year got a Tutu.

Which year? Must be much more recent than mine as you got a text message...

2008.

justin124 said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Mortimer said:

Paging TSE.

Fen Poly and the EU:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2017/12/15/eu-regulations-set-defeat-cambridge-universitys-300-year-old/

Enough to make you a Leaver?

Hmmmm ....
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-to-strengthen-uk-data-protection-law

A close mate was in Ox when our class lists were posted - he text to let me know I had a 2:2.

His text saying 'only joking' took about 5 minutes to arrive. Painful - but character building

And what is wrong with a Desmond?

Surely it depends on when it was awarded? Back in the 1960s and 1970s most students ended up with a 2:2 and were chuffed to get anything better - but for the last twenty years or so anything less than a 2:1 is widely perceived as pretty much a waste of time. That is what rampant grade inflation has done for us!

That is always my excuse after getting a 2:2 in 1968

To be honest I'm fairly contemptuous of people without a 1st...

And a Phd...

In a proper subject.

Alistair said:

To be honest I'm fairly contemptuous of people without a 1st...

And a Phd...

In a proper subject.

Ah, smug mode.

Alistair said:

justin124 said:

Alistair said:

felix said:

malcolmg said:

felix said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

I’m backing her.

If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

That's still quite a tall order -

- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.

Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.

I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.

Cuckoo

Ahem - border seats, Aberdeenshire seats - you really think the Tories will lose them all on current polling. You obviously haven't had your daily turnip yet.

John Lamont has spent his career trying g to become MP of BRS, he gave up his Holyrood seat to do so - he isn't moving.

Dumfries and Galloway has a large Labour 3rd place to squeeze for an anti-terrorism vote.

Only DCT of the borders seat is a viable seat for Mundell to step down and Davidson to take over.

Labour has the potential to recover to be back in serious contention in Dumfries & Galloway. I would expect most tactical voting to unwind next time.

I have no f'ing clue what will happen in D&G next time out. But my take away is that I wouldn't call it a safe Tory seat - and if Davidson was to stand there it would surely coalesce an anti-tory tactical vote.

To stand and lose in Scotland would completely shatter Ruth's credibility and damage the SCON brand which is pretty much built on her non-Tory like reputation, perhaps she could inherit May's seat

And Frank Bough had an even rarer and far more distinguished fourth.

JohnO said:

And Frank Bough had an even rarer and far more distinguished fourth.

How did he manage that?

You can tell I'm tired, I can't think of a single 'I bet Frank Bough enjoyed being punished like that' gag

felix said:

calum said:

Alistair said:

justin124 said:

Alistair said:

felix said:

malcolmg said:

felix said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

I’m backing her.

If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

That's still quite a tall order -

- She would need to find a winnable and probably therefore English seat.
- Win the local constituency party's nomination.
- Garner sufficient support of the Parliamentary Party to go into the final ballot.
- Short of there being a "coronation", win the Tory membership vote.

Taking account of the above, it might require a two stage process for her to become say the leader after next, which could take 9 years or more and by which time there are likely to be other, as yet unidentified contenders.

I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.

Cuckoo

Ahem - border seats, Aberdeenshire seats - you really think the Tories will lose them all on current polling. You obviously haven't had your daily turnip yet.

John Lamont has spent his career trying g to become MP of BRS, he gave up his Holyrood seat to do so - he isn't moving.

Dumfries and Galloway has a large Labour 3rd place to squeeze for an anti-terrorism vote.

Only DCT of the borders seat is a viable seat for Mundell to step down and Davidson to take over.

Labour has the potential to recover to be back in serious contention in Dumfries & Galloway. I would expect most tactical voting to unwind next time.

I have no f'ing clue what will happen in D&G next time out. But my take away is that I wouldn't call it a safe Tory seat - and if Davidson was to stand there it would surely coalesce an anti-tory tactical vote.

To stand and lose in Scotland would completely shatter Ruth's credibility and damage the SCON brand which is pretty much built on her non-Tory like reputation, perhaps she could inherit May's seat

She likes a challenge as proven in the Scottish parliament seat she won. I'd be very confident she'd win almost any existing Scottish Tory seat with ease.

She'd struggle to win my seat, Stirling, which was delivered by tactical voting by the Orange Trade Union Corbynista vote, which was led by the Vice-Chairman of the local Labour party - who is also an ex-miner.

archer101au said:

SouthamObserver said:

No, I doubt because I know trade deals take a long time to do and no sane country would agree anything with the UK until they are completely clear on what the UK’s final relationship with the EU will be: how far our laws & regulations will be aligned, the level of access UK-based businesses will have to the single market, and so on. The attractiveness of the UK as a free trade partner and the kind of concessions that both sides would make to get a deal will be dependent on how Brexit turns out. There is also the issue of bandwidth - you can’t just whistle up trade negotiators. If ours are working on a complex disengagement from the EU, they will not be working on other stuff.

So the logic of your position is that the UK should leave now on WTO terms and come back and negotiate a trade agreement with the EU later. In the meantime we can focus our limited resources on other trade deals and, of course, save the 45 bn that we are handing to the EU in exchange for nothing. That would provide far more certainty to our trading partners and business than living in transition purgatory for an indeterminate amount of time whilst the EU screw us around. Sound right?

There's just the small matter of Northern Ireland which prevents any of this from being conceivable...

felix said:

calum said:

Alistair said:

justin124 said:

Alistair said:

felix said:

malcolmg said:

felix said:

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic I agree with David except about laying Ruth Davidson.

I’m backing her.

If she formally announces her intention to stand at Westminster her price is going to collapse.

That's still quite a tall order -

I think there are several Scottish seats she could easily win on current polling - if they became vacant.

Cuckoo

Ahem - border seats, Aberdeenshire seats - you really think the Tories will lose them all on current polling. You obviously haven't had your daily turnip yet.

John Lamont has spent his career trying g to become MP of BRS, he gave up his Holyrood seat to do so - he isn't moving.

Dumfries and Galloway has a large Labour 3rd place to squeeze for an anti-terrorism vote.

Only DCT of the borders seat is a viable seat for Mundell to step down and Davidson to take over.

Labour has the potential to recover to be back in serious contention in Dumfries & Galloway. I would expect most tactical voting to unwind next time.

I have no f'ing clue what will happen in D&G next time out. But my take away is that I wouldn't call it a safe Tory seat - and if Davidson was to stand there it would surely coalesce an anti-tory tactical vote.

To stand and lose in Scotland would completely shatter Ruth's credibility and damage the SCON brand which is pretty much built on her non-Tory like reputation, perhaps she could inherit May's seat

She likes a challenge as proven in the Scottish parliament seat she won. I'd be very confident she'd win almost any existing Scottish Tory seat with ease.

Er! No. Ruthies Remainer stance has not made her many friends in the North East fishing communities, but from speaking to some conservatives, she is not particularly popular in the party. She is not collegiate and surrounds herself with her own clique supporters She had to leave Glasgow as a couple of her constituency branches there were going to deselect her, while her move to Edinburgh put more than a few noses out of joint. While the 12 new scon MP's are very much aware of how much they "owe" Ruthie and do what she tells them to do... Feels like she may be looking for another challenge though, before things implode on her.

As a joke I heard recently, if Ruthie leaves Holyrood for Westminster, it will increase the IQ of both...

felix said:

Lol - she won - quit making excuses. You don't get to step into the minds of the voters you just acknowledge their wisdom and move on.

Well done for not stepping into the minds of those voters in all those constituencies that you say Ruthie would walkover.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Alistair said:

To be honest I'm fairly contemptuous of people without a 1st...

And a Phd...

In a proper subject.

I'm kinda like that.

I'm contemptuous of anyone who hasn't got a first from a university that was around in the 13th century.

As for PhDs, they should be be only awarded to people in the medical or science disciplines.

Calling yourself a Doctor after you've studied the history of how needlework oppressed women is an outrage.

BSc. (Hons.) and PhD (both in Biochemistry) from Imperial College

Coruscant's finest university

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

All this talk of who got what degree. Surely only those with a First in PPE should be allowed to post on PB?

Not a real degree according to the Cameron haters.

Only legal, history, science, or engineering degrees count as proper degrees

Merkel got a proper degree, and a PhD!

On PB.com, why does the quality of a poster's contributions always have an inverse relationship to the level of education the poster claims to have attained?

Heartrending.

https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/942002511690510336

Stark_Dawning said:

On PB.com, why does the quality of a poster's contribution always have an inverse relationship to the level of education the poster claims to have attained?

Not sure if we have enough pre-schoolers on here to test that hypothesis.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

All this talk of who got what degree. Surely only those with a First in PPE should be allowed to post on PB?

Not a real degree according to the Cameron haters.

Only legal, history, science, or engineering degrees count as proper degrees

Not Greats?

And why should vocational courses like law be taught in proper universities?

I consider Literae Humaniores a history degree.

Fair enough.

Fysics_Teacher said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

All this talk of who got what degree. Surely only those with a First in PPE should be allowed to post on PB?

Not a real degree according to the Cameron haters.

Only legal, history, science, or engineering degrees count as proper degrees

Not Greats?

And why should vocational courses like law be taught in proper universities?

I consider Literae Humaniores a history degree.

Fair enough.

It was a degree I seriously considered reading, but declined.

Stark_Dawning said:

On PB.com, why does the quality of a poster's contributions always have an inverse relationship to the level of education the poster claims to have attained?

It's an age thing: the older you are the more experience you have and the less likely you are to have gone to university. Throw in some grade inflation and that is the result.