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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited December 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real problem for TMay from last night’s vote could be when the Brexit bill goes to the Lords

James Forsyth’s latest Spectator podcast makes a very good point about one consequence of last night’s Commons rebellion – it will make it much harder for the bill to get through the Upper House unamended.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,898
    I dedicate my 1st to saboteurs and traitors everywhere.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    They didn't have much luck amending the A50 bill, did they? *innocent face*
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,304
    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    @daodao

    No. Unless both the deal and no deal are so horrific that the public overwelmingly seek to reverse Brexit, that's a non starter.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    When do we get the report into the Treasury prediction of an immediate recession after a Leave vote ?

    The same Treasury which in March 2008 failed to predict a recession.

    Curious how Treasury predictions tend to be exactly what the Chancellor requires isn't it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Benpointer said:

    MikeL said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:



    That's true, but the very fact that there will be a Commons vote will ensure that May comes back a soft Brexit deal that is acceptable to the vast majority of MPs, who recognise the need to respect the EU-ref but in a way that doesn't trash the economy.

    Then, once the deal is passed by the HoC, the Tory headbangers will just have to suck it up, and shut up (at long last).

    It's the best way forward all considered.

    Or May calls their bluff because if they reject the deal it'll be no-deal Brexit.
    You forget that May is a Remainer!
    Ah, she's been lying about it all along.
    She campaigned for Remain IIRC
    I'm talking about all the speeches she's given since the referendum. Abundantly clear that she's not aiming for a soft Brexit.
    The trick she is trying to pull off is talk hard Brexit and walk soft.
    Yes, you are spot on.

    She has to ultimately go soft to get it through the Commons (and it's the least risk economically) - but as you say she must talk pretty hard to keep the hard Brexiteers on side - or at least enough to prevent them going off side.

    Whether 48 MPs go for a vote of no confidence who knows, but May should win such a vote easily because:

    1) Majority of Con MPs support Remain so want soft Brexit

    2) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a hard Brexiteer winning

    3) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a less voter friendly winner
    I agree with all that.

    And that is why I think it's increasingly likely she'll lead the Tories into the next GE. The question you have to ask is, assuming she doesn't voluntarily step down, when is the optimum time to attempt to oust her?

    Between now and March 2019? Not likely, barring an unforeseen disaster.

    During Transition? On what grounds if a sensible (dare I say popular) Brexit deal has been secured?

    After Transition but before the next GE? Not unless the polls show Labour well ahead.
    The middle option on the grounds a new leader for a new time, that she secured the transition and now it's time for a new leader to bring all together.

    Guff, of course, but relatively credible
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    another_richard said:

    When do we get the report into the Treasury prediction of an immediate recession after a Leave vote ?

    The same Treasury which in March 2008 failed to predict a recession.

    Curious how Treasury predictions tend to be exactly what the Chancellor requires isn't it.

    Well not always. They'd like predictions that say growth will always be up and borrowing down.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    People who can't be arsed to vote don't have any say in the matter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Cheeky.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    edited December 2017
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    MikeL said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:



    That's true, but the very fact that there will be a Commons vote will ensure that May comes back a soft Brexit deal that is acceptable to the vast majority of MPs, who recognise the need to respect the EU-ref but in a way that doesn't trash the economy.

    Then, once the deal is passed by the HoC, the Tory headbangers will just have to suck it up, and shut up (at long last).

    It's the best way forward all considered.

    Or May calls their bluff because if they reject the deal it'll be no-deal Brexit.
    You forget that May is a Remainer!
    Ah, she's been lying about it all along.
    She campaigned for Remain IIRC
    I'm talking about all the speeches she's given since the referendum. Abundantly clear that she's not aiming for a soft Brexit.
    The trick she is trying to pull off is talk hard Brexit and walk soft.
    Yes, you are spot on.

    She has to ultimately go soft to get it through the Commons (and it's the least risk economically) - but as you say she must talk pretty hard to keep the hard Brexiteers on side - or at least enough to prevent them going off side.

    Whether 48 MPs go for a vote of no confidence who knows, but May should win such a vote easily because:

    1) Majority of Con MPs support Remain so want soft Brexit

    2) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a hard Brexiteer winning

    3) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a less voter friendly winner
    I agree with all that.

    And that is why I think it's increasingly likely she'll lead the Tories into the next GE. The question you have to ask is, assuming she doesn't voluntarily step down, when is the optimum time to attempt to oust her?

    Between now and March 2019? Not likely, barring an unforeseen disaster.

    During Transition? On what grounds if a sensible (dare I say popular) Brexit deal has been secured?

    After Transition but before the next GE? Not unless the polls show Labour well ahead.
    The middle option on the grounds a new leader for a new time, that she secured the transition and now it's time for a new leader to bring all together.

    Guff, of course, but relatively credible
    Yes, if she's willing to step down but much harder if she digs her heels in.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    kle4 said:

    another_richard said:

    When do we get the report into the Treasury prediction of an immediate recession after a Leave vote ?

    The same Treasury which in March 2008 failed to predict a recession.

    Curious how Treasury predictions tend to be exactly what the Chancellor requires isn't it.

    Well not always. They'd like predictions that say growth will always be up and borrowing down.
    That is what Treasury has pretty much always said in its Budget forecasts.

    The predictions of 2016 and 2008 were only notable for the magnitude of their inaccuracy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    People who can't be arsed to vote don't have any say in the matter.
    Yes I agree. It was 'mischievous' of me to use those figures :smile:

    By the way, it is possible to be chievous as the opposite to mischievous?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    another_richard said:

    When do we get the report into the Treasury prediction of an immediate recession after a Leave vote ?

    The same Treasury which in March 2008 failed to predict a recession.

    Curious how Treasury predictions tend to be exactly what the Chancellor requires isn't it.

    I think you're being unfair on the Treasury team

    With official reports they provide a range of outcomes and assumptions to the Chancellor and try to guide him in the right direction.

    But ultimately which assumptions to use are the Chancellor's decisions
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Benpointer said:

    MikeL said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:



    That's true, but the very fact that there will be a Commons vote will ensure that May comes back a soft Brexit deal that is acceptable to the vast majority of MPs, who recognise the need to respect the EU-ref but in a way that doesn't trash the economy.

    Then, once the deal is passed by the HoC, the Tory headbangers will just have to suck it up, and shut up (at long last).

    It's the best way forward all considered.

    Or May calls their bluff because if they reject the deal it'll be no-deal Brexit.
    You forget that May is a Remainer!
    Ah, she's been lying about it all along.
    She campaigned for Remain IIRC
    I'm talking about all the speeches she's given since the referendum. Abundantly clear that she's not aiming for a soft Brexit.
    The trick she is trying to pull off is talk hard Brexit and walk soft.
    Yes, you are spot on.

    She has to ultimately go soft to get it through the Commons (and it's the least risk economically) - but as you say she must talk pretty hard to keep the hard Brexiteers on side - or at least enough to prevent them going off side.

    Whether 48 MPs go for a vote of no confidence who knows, but May should win such a vote easily because:

    1) Majority of Con MPs support Remain so want soft Brexit

    2) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a hard Brexiteer winning

    3) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a less voter friendly winner
    I agree with all that.

    And that is why I think it's increasingly likely she'll lead the Tories into the next GE. The question you have to ask is, assuming she doesn't voluntarily step down, when is the optimum time to attempt to oust her?

    Between now and March 2019? Not likely, barring an unforeseen disaster.

    During Transition? On what grounds if a sensible (dare I say popular) Brexit deal has been secured?

    After Transition but before the next GE? Not unless the polls show Labour well ahead.
    I agree with you too!

    All I would say is that if it goes to 2022 then she'll have already been in power 6 years and had a very demanding and stressful term of office due to Brexit. She has also already visibly aged - and that's after just 18 months as PM.

    So I think a voluntary step down in 2021 would still be most likely - I can't see her wanting to attempt to be a 10 year PM - which would take her up to 70.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    MikeL said:

    Benpointer said:

    MikeL said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:



    That's true, but the very fact that there will be a Commons vote will ensure that May comes back a soft Brexit deal that is acceptable to the vast majority of MPs, who recognise the need to respect the EU-ref but in a way that doesn't trash the economy.

    Then, once the deal is passed by the HoC, the Tory headbangers will just have to suck it up, and shut up (at long last).

    It's the best way forward all considered.

    Or May calls their bluff because if they reject the deal it'll be no-deal Brexit.
    You forget that May is a Remainer!
    Ah, she's been lying about it all along.
    She campaigned for Remain IIRC
    I'm talking about all the speeches she's given since the referendum. Abundantly clear that she's not aiming for a soft Brexit.
    The trick she is trying to pull off is talk hard Brexit and walk soft.
    Yes, you are spot on.

    She has to ultimately go soft to get it through the Commons (and it's the least risk economically) - but as you say she must talk pretty hard to keep the hard Brexiteers on side - or at least enough to prevent them going off side.

    Whether 48 MPs go for a vote of no confidence who knows, but May should win such a vote easily because:

    1) Majority of Con MPs support Remain so want soft Brexit

    2) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a hard Brexiteer winning

    3) Majority of Con MPs won't want to risk a less voter friendly winner
    I agree with all that.

    And that is why I think it's increasingly likely she'll lead the Tories into the next GE. The question you have to ask is, assuming she doesn't voluntarily step down, when is the optimum time to attempt to oust her?

    Between now and March 2019? Not likely, barring an unforeseen disaster.

    During Transition? On what grounds if a sensible (dare I say popular) Brexit deal has been secured?

    After Transition but before the next GE? Not unless the polls show Labour well ahead.
    I agree with you too!

    All I would say is that if it goes to 2022 then she'll have already been in power 6 years and had a very demanding and stressful term of office due to Brexit. She has also already visibly aged - and that's after just 18 months as PM.

    So I think a voluntary step down in 2021 would still be most likely - I can't see her wanting to attempt to be a 10 year PM - which would take her up to 70.
    Yes, you could well be right there.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    Charles said:

    another_richard said:

    When do we get the report into the Treasury prediction of an immediate recession after a Leave vote ?

    The same Treasury which in March 2008 failed to predict a recession.

    Curious how Treasury predictions tend to be exactly what the Chancellor requires isn't it.

    I think you're being unfair on the Treasury team

    With official reports they provide a range of outcomes and assumptions to the Chancellor and try to guide him in the right direction.

    But ultimately which assumptions to use are the Chancellor's decisions
    That's an explanation to defend 1.5% growth instead of 2.5% growth but not to defend failing to predict a recession in March 2008 and predicting an immediate recession after a Leave vote.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    edited December 2017
    Plaid's AM Steffan Lewis, at 33 the youngest AM and their Brexit spokesperson in the Welsh Assembly has been diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. Terrible news for his family just at Xmas. Must hope he receives the best treatment as soon as possible

    There is more to life than raw politics
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    The sensible once's do but not the fanatics and their are a good many of them
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    edited December 2017
    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    stevef said:

    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.

    The ballot paper option just said "Leave the European Union". Nothing about the Customs Union, Single Market or FoM.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/Senate_Fund/status/941402096116682753
  • stevefstevef Posts: 1,044
    tlg86 said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
    See how disingenuous the remainers are. They take those who chose not to vote and decide to allocate them to the remain camp.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    The sensible once's do but not the fanatics and their are a good many of them
    I don't think there are that many fanatics on either side but they tend to be very vocal (on both sides).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/BenMoshinsky/status/941254292337577984
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.

    The ballot paper option just said "Leave the European Union". Nothing about the Customs Union, Single Market or FoM.
    It's funny. The BBC showed clips of the referedum campaign including Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson and many others saying leave means leaving the single market and customs union. There was no prevarification and at the time it swayed my vote to remain
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Sort of on topic: does anyone know what JRM's saying about last week's deal? His last tweet can be read two ways:

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/940293189495410688

    "...he red lines have been repainted..." In the same place to reinforce them? Or does he mean they have moved?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.
    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:
    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    People who can't be arsed to vote don't have any say in the matter.
    They were being asked to vote on a meaningless question. Would you get out of bed on a cold summer`s morning to do that, still less go down to the polling station?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    The sensible once's do but not the fanatics and their are a good many of them
    I don't think there are that many fanatics on either side but they tend to be very vocal (on both sides).
    I am sure we can agree there are some on here
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/BenMoshinsky/status/941254292337577984

    Death come to us all, serious health problems to some of us and murder to a few politicians.

    Though perhaps Putin would still be elected even if he wasn't alive.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    another_richard said:

    Charles said:

    another_richard said:

    When do we get the report into the Treasury prediction of an immediate recession after a Leave vote ?

    The same Treasury which in March 2008 failed to predict a recession.

    Curious how Treasury predictions tend to be exactly what the Chancellor requires isn't it.

    I think you're being unfair on the Treasury team

    With official reports they provide a range of outcomes and assumptions to the Chancellor and try to guide him in the right direction.

    But ultimately which assumptions to use are the Chancellor's decisions
    That's an explanation to defend 1.5% growth instead of 2.5% growth but not to defend failing to predict a recession in March 2008 and predicting an immediate recession after a Leave vote.
    The Chancellor can choose whatever assumptions he wants - he's the boss. He just needs to be able to defend it in the Commons
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.

    The ballot paper option just said "Leave the European Union". Nothing about the Customs Union, Single Market or FoM.
    It's funny. The BBC showed clips of the referedum campaign including Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson and many others saying leave means leaving the single market and customs union. There was no prevarification and at the time it swayed my vote to remain
    Ministerial or campaign statements do not change what the question was, nor are binding. Another reason the Gov lost the a50 case as comments about the ref being binding were not law.

    Now, whether it would meet the spirit of the leave vote, and whether even if it wasn't if a majority were happy to stay in the singlecmarket, whether that would a good idea is a political issue.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    The sensible once's do but not the fanatics and their are a good many of them
    I don't think there are that many fanatics on either side but they tend to be very vocal (on both sides).
    I am sure we can agree there are some on here
    Indeed!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    PClipp said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.
    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:
    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    People who can't be arsed to vote don't have any say in the matter.
    They were being asked to vote on a meaningless question. Would you get out of bed on a cold summer`s morning to do that, still less go down to the polling station?
    A lot of activity going on for a meaningless question.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Reports from EU meeting that TM received applause from her fellow leaders after her speech to them tonight.

    She is the one to take us through this
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.

    The ballot paper option just said "Leave the European Union". Nothing about the Customs Union, Single Market or FoM.
    It's funny. The BBC showed clips of the referedum campaign including Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson and many others saying leave means leaving the single market and customs union. There was no prevarification and at the time it swayed my vote to remain
    Ministerial or campaign statements do not change what the question was, nor are binding. Another reason the Gov lost the a50 case as comments about the ref being binding were not law.

    Now, whether it would meet the spirit of the leave vote, and whether even if it wasn't if a majority were happy to stay in the singlecmarket, whether that would a good idea is a political issue.
    That's like saying a vote for Labour/Tory at the ballot box can't be interpreted as a vote for them to implement their manifesto.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    edited December 2017
    stevef said:

    tlg86 said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
    See how disingenuous the remainers are. They take those who chose not to vote and decide to allocate them to the remain camp.
    There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change.

    But it's all academic as far as Brexit is concerned - too late now. And at least this way Farage becomes an irrelevance!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    tlg86 said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
    See how disingenuous the remainers are. They take those who chose not to vote and decide to allocate them to the remain camp.
    There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change.

    But it's all academic as far as Brexit is concerned - too late now. And at least this way Farage becomes an irrelevance!
    And that is a bonus
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.

    The ballot paper option just said "Leave the European Union". Nothing about the Customs Union, Single Market or FoM.
    It's funny. The BBC showed clips of the referedum campaign including Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson and many others saying leave means leaving the single market and customs union. There was no prevarification and at the time it swayed my vote to remain

    But wasn’t that part of Project Fear?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.

    The ballot paper option just said "Leave the European Union". Nothing about the Customs Union, Single Market or FoM.
    It's funny. The BBC showed clips of the referedum campaign including Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson and many others saying leave means leaving the single market and customs union. There was no prevarification and at the time it swayed my vote to remain
    Ministerial or campaign statements do not change what the question was, nor are binding. Another reason the Gov lost the a50 case as comments about the ref being binding were not law.

    Now, whether it would meet the spirit of the leave vote, and whether even if it wasn't if a majority were happy to stay in the singlecmarket, whether that would a good idea is a political issue.
    That's like saying a vote for Labour/Tory at the ballot box can't be interpreted as a vote for them to implement their manifesto.
    The difference being there are published Labour/Tory manifestos. When was the Leave manifesto published?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited December 2017
    World-class trolling from Mike, ignoring the facts that the holding of the referendum had an overwhelming majority in the Commons and was agreed by the Lords, that everyone on both sides of the argument agreed that the decision of voters in the referendum was going to be respected even if wasn't legally binding, and - most important of all - that parliament has already, by an overwhelming majority, agreed to trigger Article 50 and therefore has already, overwhelmingly, reaffirmed the democratic legitimacy of the decision to leave the EU.

    Peers might not like it. LibDems don't like it. Many MPs don't like it. For that matter, I don't like it; but the United Kingdom has decided to leave the EU, perfectly democratically whether your metric is the popular vote or the proceedings of parliament. There is no getting away from this, and the argument that the poor benighted voters were misled won't wash: so far, the most surprising piece of new information is that the economic damage caused by Brexit uncertainty has been less that most observers (including me) expected. So you can't even argue that the facts have changed so much as to invalidate the referendum result.

    As for the latest development, Lord only knows what mess we would get into if parliament starts trying to undo or block an agreement between the UK government and the EU. It hardly bears thinking about; the off-chance that such a disaster might happen (with the added twist that it might put John McDonnell into No 11) is a good reason for pessimism, and for keeping your pension fund as diversified away from dependence on the UK economy as you can.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    edited December 2017
    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Blimey Faisal Islam confirmed TM received applause from her fellow leaders.

    Makes a change
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    PClipp said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.
    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:
    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    People who can't be arsed to vote don't have any say in the matter.
    They were being asked to vote on a meaningless question. Would you get out of bed on a cold summer`s morning to do that, still less go down to the polling station?
    QTWTAIY. What a preposterous argument.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,747
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Plaid's AM Steffan Lewis, at 33 the youngest AM and their Brexit spokesperson in the Welsh Assembly has been diagnosed with stage 4 cancer. Terrible news for his family just at Xmas. Must hope he receives the best treatment as soon as possible

    There is more to life than raw politics

    Well said.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Do your blood pressure a favour ans switch off SkyNews :)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    World-class trolling from Mike, ignoring the facts that the holding of the referendum had an overwhelming majority in the Commons and was agreed by the Lords, that everyone on both sides of the argument agreed that the decision of voters in the referendum was going to be respected even if wasn't legally binding, and - most important of all - that parliament has already, by an overwhelming majority, agreed to trigger Article 50 and therefore has already, overwhelmingly, reaffirmed the democratic legitimacy of the decision to leave the EU.

    Peers might not like it. LibDems don't like it. Many MPs don't like it. For that matter, I don't like it; but the United Kingdom has decided to leave the EU, perfectly democratically whether your metric is the popular vote or the proceedings of parliament. There is no getting away from this, and the argument that the poor benighted voters were misled won't wash: so far, the most surprising piece of new information is that the economic damage caused by Brexit uncertainty has been less that most observers (including me) expected. So you can't even argue that the facts have changed so much as to invalidate the referendum result.

    As for the latest development, Lord only knows what mess we would get into if parliament starts trying to undo or block an agreement between the UK government and the EU. It hardly bears thinking about; the off-chance that such a disaster might happen (with the added twist that it might put John McDonnell into No 11) is a good reason for pessimism, and for keeping your pension fund as diversified away from dependence on the UK economy as you can..

    Good post. I was with you until the last sentence - move your funds out of Blighty?! What a traitor!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Reports from EU meeting that TM received applause from her fellow leaders after her speech to them tonight.

    She is the one to take us through this

    The EU27 are magnanimous in victory.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    Charles said:

    another_richard said:

    Charles said:

    another_richard said:

    When do we get the report into the Treasury prediction of an immediate recession after a Leave vote ?

    The same Treasury which in March 2008 failed to predict a recession.

    Curious how Treasury predictions tend to be exactly what the Chancellor requires isn't it.

    I think you're being unfair on the Treasury team

    With official reports they provide a range of outcomes and assumptions to the Chancellor and try to guide him in the right direction.

    But ultimately which assumptions to use are the Chancellor's decisions
    That's an explanation to defend 1.5% growth instead of 2.5% growth but not to defend failing to predict a recession in March 2008 and predicting an immediate recession after a Leave vote.
    The Chancellor can choose whatever assumptions he wants - he's the boss. He just needs to be able to defend it in the Commons
    And does it say in those Treasury predictions 'Calculated on the basis of assumptions made by the Chancellor of the Exchequer' ?

    Perhaps you could point out where.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited December 2017
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    Winston Churchill once said when it was pointed out that his election victory was very narrow, said "One's enough"..

    THE meaningful vote regarding the EU was in June 2016, the referendum, and a majority voted to leave, and despite the disingenuousness of some of the remainers, it was a vote against freedom of movement, and a vote to leave ALL the EU. (including the single market which if we remained in it would mean we were members in all but name, still under EU control)

    Last night's vote makes no difference. If MPs or the unelected Lords try to frustrate Brexit, or try to impose a form of Brexit which means we are still under EU control, or with freedom of movement, then it will be frustrating the will of a majority of the People, and I think the consequences of that would be dire.

    The ballot paper option just said "Leave the European Union". Nothing about the Customs Union, Single Market or FoM.
    It's funny. The BBC showed clips of the referedum campaign including Cameron, Osborne, Gove, Johnson and many others saying leave means leaving the single market and customs union. There was no prevarification and at the time it swayed my vote to remain
    Ministerial or campaign statements do not change what the question was, nor are binding. Another reason the Gov lost the a50 case as comments about the ref being binding were not law.

    Now, whether it would meet the spirit of the leave vote, and whether even if it wasn't if a majority were happy to stay in the singlecmarket, whether that would a good idea is a political issue.
    That's like saying a vote for Labour/Tory at the ballot box can't be interpreted as a vote for them to implement their manifesto.
    Which oppositions do all the time of course, saying policy x or y is not supported In any case as leave could mean many things and not all in the government were on the same side, statements on what an option woukd mean were not meaningless but would not be iron clad either. So it's not the same as a GE.

    Additionally manifestos aren't always implemented, sometimes commitments are even reversed and it doesn't invalidate a vote. Even if people believed option a means x cannot happen, it doesn't mean x will not happen. The Brexit question was open ended and parliament was free to determine what it should mean. Had they decided that meant staying in the single market that might have been unwise given the comments beforehand and the expectations of many, but it was up to them to decide if the wanted to face that consequence.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Do your blood pressure a favour ans switch off SkyNews :)
    Apparently, the BBC do a news channel too!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Reports from EU meeting that TM received applause from her fellow leaders after her speech to them tonight.

    She is the one to take us through this

    The EU27 are magnanimous in victory.
    +1 :lol:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Right, got a pre-Christmas cold so I'm off to bed. Hopefully some from the evening lefty/remainer shift will be on soon to keep the red flag flying here in this sea of blue!

    :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    tlg86 said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
    See how disingenuous the remainers are. They take those who chose not to vote and decide to allocate them to the remain camp.
    There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change.

    But it's all academic as far as Brexit is concerned - too late now. And at least this way Farage becomes an irrelevance!
    Personally I think turnout thresholds, even a victory threshold other than simple majority, are not inherently bad ideas, though determine what things require them and what the thresholds should be are trickier questions. Given we've done without them for some really big decisions, it's harder to make the case nowm
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    edited December 2017


    Apparently, the BBC do a news channel too!
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Do your blood pressure a favour ans switch off SkyNews :)
    Do you know, over the last three months I have had a pre op medical, bi lateral hernia operation, blood tests, prick tests, ECG's (4), chest x rays, and all kind of monitoring but my blood pressure has been excellent , even when I was diagnosed with a suspect heart attack that did not happen.

    Sky news and BBC are on most of the time but all I ask from Sky is balance which BBC is reasonable good at
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Benpointer said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    World-class trolling from Mike, ignoring the facts that the holding of the referendum had an overwhelming majority in the Commons and was agreed by the Lords, that everyone on both sides of the argument agreed that the decision of voters in the referendum was going to be respected even if wasn't legally binding, and - most important of all - that parliament has already, by an overwhelming majority, agreed to trigger Article 50 and therefore has already, overwhelmingly, reaffirmed the democratic legitimacy of the decision to leave the EU.

    Peers might not like it. LibDems don't like it. Many MPs don't like it. For that matter, I don't like it; but the United Kingdom has decided to leave the EU, perfectly democratically whether your metric is the popular vote or the proceedings of parliament. There is no getting away from this, and the argument that the poor benighted voters were misled won't wash: so far, the most surprising piece of new information is that the economic damage caused by Brexit uncertainty has been less that most observers (including me) expected. So you can't even argue that the facts have changed so much as to invalidate the referendum result.

    As for the latest development, Lord only knows what mess we would get into if parliament starts trying to undo or block an agreement between the UK government and the EU. It hardly bears thinking about; the off-chance that such a disaster might happen (with the added twist that it might put John McDonnell into No 11) is a good reason for pessimism, and for keeping your pension fund as diversified away from dependence on the UK economy as you can..

    Good post. I was with you until the last sentence - move your funds out of Blighty?! What a traitor!
    +1 (assuming the traitor bit is a joke - this is why emojis exist people :))
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Benpointer said:

    Sort of on topic: does anyone know what JRM's saying about last week's deal? His last tweet can be read two ways:

    "...he red lines have been repainted..." In the same place to reinforce them? Or does he mean they have moved?

    It's a reference to his question to May at PMQs when he said she needed to give her red lines a new coat of paint.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    kle4 said:

    Benpointer said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    World-class trolling from Mike, ignoring the facts that the holding of the referendum had an overwhelming majority in the Commons and was agreed by the Lords, that everyone on both sides of the argument agreed that the decision of voters in the referendum was going to be respected even if wasn't legally binding, and - most important of all - that parliament has already, by an overwhelming majority, agreed to trigger Article 50 and therefore has already, overwhelmingly, reaffirmed the democratic legitimacy of the decision to leave the EU.

    Peers might not like it. LibDems don't like it. Many MPs don't like it. For that matter, I don't like it; but the United Kingdom has decided to leave the EU, perfectly democratically whether your metric is the popular vote or the proceedings of parliament. There is no getting away from this, and the argument that the poor benighted voters were misled won't wash: so far, the most surprising piece of new information is that the economic damage caused by Brexit uncertainty has been less that most observers (including me) expected. So you can't even argue that the facts have changed so much as to invalidate the referendum result.

    As for the latest development, Lord only knows what mess we would get into if parliament starts trying to undo or block an agreement between the UK government and the EU. It hardly bears thinking about; the off-chance that such a disaster might happen (with the added twist that it might put John McDonnell into No 11) is a good reason for pessimism, and for keeping your pension fund as diversified away from dependence on the UK economy as you can..

    Good post. I was with you until the last sentence - move your funds out of Blighty?! What a traitor!
    +1 (assuming the traitor bit is a joke - this is why emojis exist people :))
    It was!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Benpointer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Do your blood pressure a favour ans switch off SkyNews :)
    Apparently, the BBC do a news channel too!
    Why not try RT?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    williamglenn said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sort of on topic: does anyone know what JRM's saying about last week's deal? His last tweet can be read two ways:

    "...he red lines have been repainted..." In the same place to reinforce them? Or does he mean they have moved?

    It's a reference to his question to May at PMQs when he said she needed to give her red lines a new coat of paint.
    Ah right, he's on board then. Interesting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    MikeSmithson said:

    Benpointer said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Do your blood pressure a favour ans switch off SkyNews :)
    Apparently, the BBC do a news channel too!
    Why not try RT?

    Fake news!!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    Same here. And I wish the leavers would get on with leaving without all this melodrama.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    The idea the Leave vote is illegitimate or could be overturned is truly desperate stuff.

    Is this what the Remainer die-hards are turning to now the polls aren't moving in their favour anymore?

    Pathetic.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Apparently, the BBC do a news channel too!
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Do your blood pressure a favour ans switch off SkyNews :)
    Do you know, over the last three months I have had a pre op medical, bi lateral hernia operation, blood tests, prick tests, ECG's (4), chest x rays, and all kind of monitoring but my blood pressure has been excellent , even when I was diagnosed with a suspect heart attack that did not happen.

    Sky news and BBC are on most of the time but all I ask from Sky is balance which BBC is reasonable good at

    No offense, merely that watching the news is rarely good for BP!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    Recidivist said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    Same here. And I wish the leavers would get on with leaving without all this melodrama.
    Unfortunately some politicians (who have a lot more influence on matters than either you or I) do not believe that and are willing to do almost anything to make sure we don't leave. The most recent example being Andrew Adonis today.
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    Benpointer - “There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change”.

    Yes there is a case. I’d certainly have been happy had that been the threshold for the Maastrict Treaty. Europhiles weren’t interested in voter opinion then though.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    World-class trolling from Mike, ignoring the facts that the holding of the referendum had an overwhelming majority in the Commons and was agreed by the Lords, that everyone on both sides of the argument agreed that the decision of voters in the referendum was going to be respected even if wasn't legally binding, and - most important of all - that parliament has already, by an overwhelming majority, agreed to trigger Article 50 and therefore has already, overwhelmingly, reaffirmed the democratic legitimacy of the decision to leave the EU.

    Peers might not like it. LibDems don't like it. Many MPs don't like it. For that matter, I don't like it; but the United Kingdom has decided to leave the EU, perfectly democratically whether your metric is the popular vote or the proceedings of parliament. There is no getting away from this, and the argument that the poor benighted voters were misled won't wash: so far, the most surprising piece of new information is that the economic damage caused by Brexit uncertainty has been less that most observers (including me) expected. So you can't even argue that the facts have changed so much as to invalidate the referendum result.

    As for the latest development, Lord only knows what mess we would get into if parliament starts trying to undo or block an agreement between the UK government and the EU. It hardly bears thinking about; the off-chance that such a disaster might happen (with the added twist that it might put John McDonnell into No 11) is a good reason for pessimism, and for keeping your pension fund as diversified away from dependence on the UK economy as you can.

    The object of the amendment is to use the threat of a Commons veto as leverage over HMG negotiating team to ensure it takes into account demands of the Remainer rebels.

    Similar to what Verhofstadht is trying to do with the EU27 and Barnier.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    Casino_Royale said:

    The idea the Leave vote is illegitimate or could be overturned is truly desperate stuff.

    Is this what the Remainer die-hards are turning to now the polls aren't moving in their favour anymore?

    Pathetic.

    Oi!!!

    You're not due on until 11pm. Wait until the father of the chapel hears about this.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    trawl said:

    Benpointer - “There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change”.

    Yes there is a case. I’d certainly have been happy had that been the threshold for the Maastrict Treaty. Europhiles weren’t interested in voter opinion then though.

    Fair point. Bloody Tories eh?! :wink:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    The idea the Leave vote is illegitimate or could be overturned is truly desperate stuff.

    Is this what the Remainer die-hards are turning to now the polls aren't moving in their favour anymore?

    Pathetic.

    Oi!!!

    You're not due on until 11pm. Wait until the father of the chapel hears about this.
    I was due on at 9pm actually.

    But, I have failed to call anyone a traitor yet.

    So I might lose my job..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Benpointer said:

    Right, got a pre-Christmas cold so I'm off to bed. Hopefully some from the evening lefty/remainer shift will be on soon to keep the red flag flying here in this sea of blue!

    :wink:

    Look after yourself Ben. My wife, daughter and I have all had this winter coughing bug and it is very debilitating
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    Benpointer said:

    stevef said:

    tlg86 said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    Nah, 65.3% didn't vote to remain in the EU. ;)
    See how disingenuous the remainers are. They take those who chose not to vote and decide to allocate them to the remain camp.
    There is a case, with major constitutional changes, for the argument that a majority of registered voters need to vote for it... after all if you can't be arsed to vote, you do not really feel strongly about the need for change.

    But it's all academic as far as Brexit is concerned - too late now. And at least this way Farage becomes an irrelevance!
    I am afraid I am firmly of the opinion that if you can't be bothered to get out and vote you don't deserve to have your non-vote counted.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Apparently, the BBC do a news channel too!
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky reporting tonight is all so negative for TM. Hope Disney puts it out of it's misery

    Do your blood pressure a favour ans switch off SkyNews :)
    Do you know, over the last three months I have had a pre op medical, bi lateral hernia operation, blood tests, prick tests, ECG's (4), chest x rays, and all kind of monitoring but my blood pressure has been excellent , even when I was diagnosed with a suspect heart attack that did not happen.

    Sky news and BBC are on most of the time but all I ask from Sky is balance which BBC is reasonable good at

    No offense, merely that watching the news is rarely good for BP!

    I know you meant no offence and I am just pleased that in the end I came out with a good bill of health for a 74 year old
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Casino_Royale said:

    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    The idea the Leave vote is illegitimate or could be overturned is truly desperate stuff.

    Is this what the Remainer die-hards are turning to now the polls aren't moving in their favour anymore?

    Pathetic.

    Oi!!!

    You're not due on until 11pm. Wait until the father of the chapel hears about this.
    I was due on at 9pm actually.

    But, I have failed to call anyone a traitor yet.

    So I might lose my job..
    Right! No-one is to call anyone a traitor until I blow the whistle. Even if they do say Juncker!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    43.4%.

    That's the proportion of the electorate that voted to remain in 1975. Clearly the experiment had failed and we should have left then.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    edited December 2017


    If these start to be upheld then you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, by 1.9% above the 50% threshold, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested.


    However TM did fight the election on a Leave manifesto.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Recidivist said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    Same here. And I wish the leavers would get on with leaving without all this melodrama.
    Unfortunately some politicians (who have a lot more influence on matters than either you or I) do not believe that and are willing to do almost anything to make sure we don't leave. The most recent example being Andrew Adonis today.
    Yes , I was surprised at Andrew Adonis , always seemed a sensible diligent minister.On another point why did the government not make the referendum legally binding ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,577
    Yorkcity said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Recidivist said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    Same here. And I wish the leavers would get on with leaving without all this melodrama.
    Unfortunately some politicians (who have a lot more influence on matters than either you or I) do not believe that and are willing to do almost anything to make sure we don't leave. The most recent example being Andrew Adonis today.
    Yes , I was surprised at Andrew Adonis , always seemed a sensible diligent minister.On another point why did the government not make the referendum legally binding ?
    I would suggest arrogance. They never for a moment thought they were going to lose.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    another_richard said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    If these start to be upheld then you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, by 1.9% above the 50% threshold, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested.

    There is an awful lot I love about this site but it's impossible to take any thread header by Mike regarding Brexit seriously nowadays.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Recidivist said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    Same here. And I wish the leavers would get on with leaving without all this melodrama.
    Unfortunately some politicians (who have a lot more influence on matters than either you or I) do not believe that and are willing to do almost anything to make sure we don't leave. The most recent example being Andrew Adonis today.
    Yes , I was surprised at Andrew Adonis , always seemed a sensible diligent minister.On another point why did the government not make the referendum legally binding ?
    I would suggest arrogance. They never for a moment thought they were going to lose.
    Yes that has the ring of truth about it to me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    tlg86 said:

    another_richard said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    So a complication of the tax system which will be a minor disincentive to employ people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Recidivist said:

    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    daodao said:

    Is Brexit now holed below the waterline?

    No - all the conservative party accept we are leaving the EU - non of the rebels will support a remain proposition
    Not even Clarke or Soubry?
    Clarke and Soubry both said today we are leaving the EU in live interviews
    I think tbh most Remainers accept we are leaving. I certainly do (sadly).
    Same here. And I wish the leavers would get on with leaving without all this melodrama.
    Unfortunately some politicians (who have a lot more influence on matters than either you or I) do not believe that and are willing to do almost anything to make sure we don't leave. The most recent example being Andrew Adonis today.
    Yes , I was surprised at Andrew Adonis , always seemed a sensible diligent minister.On another point why did the government not make the referendum legally binding ?
    I would suggest arrogance. They never for a moment thought they were going to lose.
    I would suggest simple lack of carein drafting that it was needed. The Gov even tried arguing in the A50 case at one point that it was basically binding since why woukd parliament ask the people unless it was handing the decision to them, but as a non lawyer that just sounded dumb, iirc the av ref act did set out the result would be implemented
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The Alabama result won't be certified until Dec 28th and my guess is that Betfair & others won't pay out until then.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    tlg86 said:

    another_richard said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Nicky Morgan getting flayed alive on QT. Delicious.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    The Mail Online has gone to work on Nathan Lyon:

    https://tinyurl.com/yac8z986

    'We have two small children who I have to put first and unfortunately at the end of the day I'm the one who's being f**ked around here'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    TGOHF said:

    Nicky Morgan getting flayed alive on QT. Delicious.

    Blimey, it has changed a lot since I last saw it! Are roman colliseum's back?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,258
    TGOHF said:

    Nicky Morgan getting flayed alive on QT. Delicious.

    QT is all about confirmation bias. If someone you agree with gets booed it's proof that the audience is full of lefties/fascists. If someone you disagree with gets booed then the audience is full of right thinking sensible types.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    tlg86 said:

    another_richard said:

    Does this affect to people living in Scotland or people employed by Scottish based organisations ?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-42358527

    Living in Scotland, apparently. Sky News were interviewing people working for a fish packing company some of whom live in England and some who live in Scotland.
    The interview was from Eyemouth with one worker, living in Eyemouth and the other in Berwick. The Eyemouth worker and the boss were not impressed
    Well they voted for devolution as did the Welsh.You have to accept the result of the referendum.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:

    Nicky Morgan getting flayed alive on QT. Delicious.

    Blimey, it has changed a lot since I last saw it! Are roman colliseum's back?

    Audience had their thumbs down to Ms Morgan

    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/941440590998368258
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    SandyRentool said:

    "1.9% above the 50% threshold" - so that would be 3.8% ahead of the other side.

    Very mischievous spinning of the numbers by OGH!

    Nah. Mischievous spinning would be:

    "...you can hear the argument developing that the Leave victory, which only 37.5% of registered voters supported, does not have the same democratic legitimacy as has been suggested."
    People who can't be arsed to vote don't have any say in the matter.
    Yes I agree. It was 'mischievous' of me to use those figures :smile:

    By the way, it is possible to be chievous as the opposite to mischievous?
    It is not mis as in an opposite, but a corruption of Mes old French =bad and Chever =happen.
    Glad to be of service.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Trumpton:

    There is an expectation of something very notable dropping before Christmas as regards the whole Russia-related investigation.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Langworthy (Salford)

    Lab 601
    Con 183
    LD 125
    Greens 72
    Ind 55

    Lab hold
This discussion has been closed.

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