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Comments
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I don't bet on timescales over 12 months. I invest in stocks and shares and look for a return of 8% plus with no danger of losing all my investment.IanB2 said:
If you are prepared to wait, Sadiq Khan as next London mayor at 1.33 looks attractive to me, a return of about 13% p.a. over two and a half years. Hard to see Labour losing in London before the GE and hard to see Sadiq not wanting a second term, since he has stood down from parliament.partypoliticalorphan said:I just cashed out on Betfair. A bird in the hand... not that there are many political bets with a result in the near future in which to invest my modest winnings. Is there a market on whether Mrs May will win the vote this evening?
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I doubt you can get anything like that without some risk to capital, but of course not quite so risky as betting!partypoliticalorphan said:
I don't bet on timescales over 12 months. I invest in stocks and shares and look for a return of 8% plus with no danger of losing all my investment.IanB2 said:
If you are prepared to wait, Sadiq Khan as next London mayor at 1.33 looks attractive to me, a return of about 13% p.a. over two and a half years. Hard to see Labour losing in London before the GE and hard to see Sadiq not wanting a second term, since he has stood down from parliament.partypoliticalorphan said:I just cashed out on Betfair. A bird in the hand... not that there are many political bets with a result in the near future in which to invest my modest winnings. Is there a market on whether Mrs May will win the vote this evening?
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Create and maintain well funded refugee camps in Lebanon, return anyone found to be crossing the border into the EU, at the very least respect the Dublin protocol (the unilateral suspension of which vastly increased the crisis by encouraging the mass migration of people).williamglenn said:
What was the practical alternative to Merkel's decision back in August 2015? Any other approach certainly wouldn't have relieved other EU countries of the burden of dealing with refugees - quite the contrary.kyf_100 said:
It makes her an autocrat who was able to impose mass immigration not just on her own country, but the rest of the Schengen zone. Now the EU is demanding countries that won't take in "their fair share" of immigrants pay €250,000 per immigrant.TOPPING said:
Does all that make Merkel a moron?kyf_100 said:
That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.TOPPING said:
Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.
So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.
Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.
For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.
European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.
It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
It is the clearest example of the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU I can think of - that one country's leader can unilaterally impose a policy that has such a profound, dramatic and destabilising effect on every other country, without the citizens of that country having recourse to reject that leader at the ballot box.
And that is what makes her a moron.0 -
The practical approach was that proposed by Cameron. What Merkel did was to tell every migrant who had access to the message that if they could get to Germany they would be welcome to stay. She encouraged tens of thousands of extra hugely dangerous crossings of the Mediterranean and hundreds if not thousands of extra deaths occurred directly because of her actions.williamglenn said:
What was the practical alternative to Merkel's decision back in August 2015? Any other approach certainly wouldn't have relieved other EU countries of the burden of dealing with refugees - quite the contrary.
She hung countries like Hungary out to dry. They were trying to enforce the agreed Dublin 2 rules and she attacked them for it and unilaterally scrapped an agreement with no consultation with, or agreement from, other countries. She made things far worse for the front line countries not better.0 -
the practical alternative was to STFU and not cause a crisiswilliamglenn said:
What was the practical alternative to Merkel's decision back in August 2015? Any other approach certainly wouldn't have relieved other EU countries of the burden of dealing with refugees - quite the contrary.kyf_100 said:
It makes her an autocrat who was able to impose mass immigration not just on her own country, but the rest of the Schengen zone. Now the EU is demanding countries that won't take in "their fair share" of immigrants pay €250,000 per immigrant.TOPPING said:
Does all that make Merkel a moron?kyf_100 said:
That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.TOPPING said:
Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.
So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.
Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.
For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.
European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.
It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
It is the clearest example of the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU I can think of - that one country's leader can unilaterally impose a policy that has such a profound, dramatic and destabilising effect on every other country, without the citizens of that country having recourse to reject that leader at the ballot box.
And that is what makes her a moron.0 -
Momentum are likely to be a bigger threat to SK than the other political parties.IanB2 said:
If you are prepared to wait, Sadiq Khan as next London mayor at 1.33 looks attractive to me, a return of about 13% p.a. over two and a half years. Hard to see Labour losing in London before the GE and hard to see Sadiq not wanting a second term, since he has stood down from parliament.partypoliticalorphan said:I just cashed out on Betfair. A bird in the hand... not that there are many political bets with a result in the near future in which to invest my modest winnings. Is there a market on whether Mrs May will win the vote this evening?
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You need to keep perspective. AfD got 13 % of the vote, and Merkel, Schulz, Die Linke, FDP and the Greens got 87%. None of these could be described as far Right. Merkel is the preferred choice for Chancellor in all polls.kyf_100 said:
That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.TOPPING said:
Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.
So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.
Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.
For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.
European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.
It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
Everyone's political career comes to an end at some point, but Merkel retains support.0 -
Grieve amendment vote - Division called.
Result in 15 mins.0 -
What really fascinates me is the direct comparison between UKIP and the AFD. Under the British system, fear of UKIP at 12.6% led to the referendum - now for all the division that has come from that, one positive we can take from it is that it completely defused UKIP as a movement - by showing moderate Eurosceptics who were previously drawn towards the party that they were being listened to.foxinsoxuk said:
You need to keep perspective. AfD got 13 % of the vote, and Merkel, Schulz, Die Linke, FDP and the Greens got 87%. None of these could be described as far Right. Merkel is the preferred choice for Chancellor in all polls.kyf_100 said:
That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.TOPPING said:
Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.
So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.
Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.
For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.
European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.
It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
Everyone's political career comes to an end at some point, but Merkel retains support.
As a medical man, I'm sure you believe it's best to lance a boil rather than let it fester. We have lanced our boil, in Germany the situation is likely to get worse and worse.0 -
I agree it’s not formally in our hands, but the EU has little form in saying “No! That can stays here and no farther down the road!” This is the one that the EU will accept, on the basis that a bad Brexit hurts then as well as us, but a postponement involves no loss of face and doesn’t set a precedent for other would-be leavers.Richard_Tyndall said:
'Extend and fudge' is also not in our hands. That requires the agreement of all 27 other EU countries. 'Don't leave' will destroy the political system in this country and simply hand ammunition to the extremists.Polruan said:
The choice will also include “extend and fudge” and “don’t leave”. The reason that the government aren’t prepared to give ground here is that when the deal can’t live up to the mutually incompatible promises they’ve made, it has to be forced through and ancient history before the next GE. If they’re still negotiating and not making progress at that point they’re toast. So “extend and fudge” must be opposed even if it’s in the national interest.Richard_Tyndall said:
The problem being that it is not in the hands of the MPs to make those decisions, for all we wish it were. If the Government has negotiated a settlement and the MPs vote it down then the only realistic option on the table is a WTO relationship and no Brexit deal. Because I don't think there is a cat in hells chance that the EU are going to turn around and agree to renegotiate for something else with only a couple of months left before the deadline.Polruan said:
If it passes there are two options:CD13 said:I'm still don't understand the point behind the amendment.
If it passes there are two options.
One is that we crash out without a deal, as whatever the deal, the die-hard remain MPs will never agree with it.
Surely no one wants that?
Unless w very transparent.
There will be no second option.
A minority government will not be able to determine the form of Brexit without winning the agreement of MPs. It seems pretty clear that MPs won’t vote to overturn the referendum result but beyond that all possible forms (that were argued for by various Leavers) including EEA membership, customs union membership, CETA or WTO are legitimate endpoints.
A majority government that can whip its MPs successfully will be able to determine those terms.
I want MPs to vote on the final deal. But the idea that, realistically, the choice will be anything but 'The Deal' or 'No Deal' is pretty fanciful.
Inch by inch unarticulated changes in the status quo *might* get us things we want. Forcing definite statements over a short timescale will result in statements we definitely don’t want.0 -
Grieve amendment:
309 - 305
Govt DEFEAT.0 -
I see the Moon on the Stick element have won that amendment. Just silly.0
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Was there a Labour party meeting?Ishmael_Z said:
How many crowds were chanting "Death to the Jews" in London last w/e?TOPPING said:
How does the number of terrorist incidents in Germany vs here stack up?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).
Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?
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What a great day for Parliamentary sovereignty.0
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Who elects Parliament?TheScreamingEagles said:What a great day for Parliamentary sovereignty.
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Be interesting to see the division list. Felt like about 20 Tories said they were going to vote for the amendment.
Suggests no other amendments will get through.0 -
can someone explain to me does the amendment mean mp’s can prevent no deal brexit or not?0
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Maintaining border control, keeping her citizens safe, actually respecting that she campaigned and was elected as a conservative not as a open-borders fanatic...williamglenn said:
What was the practical alternative to Merkel's decision back in August 2015? Any other approach certainly wouldn't have relieved other EU countries of the burden of dealing with refugees - quite the contrary.kyf_100 said:
It makes her an autocrat who was able to impose mass immigration not just on her own country, but the rest of the Schengen zone. Now the EU is demanding countries that won't take in "their fair share" of immigrants pay €250,000 per immigrant.TOPPING said:
Does all that make Merkel a moron?kyf_100 said:
Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.TOPPING said:
Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
So you get a situation where the Germans will carry on sticking their fingers in their ears and going la la la, I'm not listening to you, which will mean the far right will continue to grow.
Contrast and compare that to GE2015 and GE2017, where UKIP won 12.6%, forced a referendum, then condemned themselves to irrelevance (1.8%) at GE2017 - effectively neutering the British "far" right.
For all its flaws, the British electoral system isn't half bad.
European history has given its cultures good reason to fear the rule of the mob, but in Britain revolution has largely taken place peacefully at the ballot box, with once mightly leaders humbled and brought to heel.
It is this difference between the UK and the rest of the EU states that makes our democratic cultures so fundamentally incompatible.
It is the clearest example of the democratic deficit at the heart of the EU I can think of - that one country's leader can unilaterally impose a policy that has such a profound, dramatic and destabilising effect on every other country, without the citizens of that country having recourse to reject that leader at the ballot box.
And that is what makes her a moron.
Basic stuff like that. Result: no Brexit, no far right upsurge across Europe, and easy 4th or even 5th term if she wanted it.0 -
The biggest problem is that this is yet another statute being required meaning that those waste of spacers in the HoL will be sticking their oar in yet again.TheScreamingEagles said:What a great day for Parliamentary sovereignty.
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Mr D,
"If MPs vote the deal down the EU is hardly going to give us a better deal, are they?"
No, but the MP's can force May back to ask for a non-leave deal.
Bryant has already stated that in the debate, and the EU will happily agree.0 -
nah Oxford Uni pillock fucks things up againTheScreamingEagles said:What a great day for Parliamentary sovereignty.
really we should shut the dump and turn it over to car manufacturing0 -
Only with the EU’s help.kjohnw said:can someone explain to me does the amendment mean mp’s can prevent no deal brexit or not?
They could force the government to request an extension to article 50 so we get time to get a good deal.0 -
Well done Tory remainders. Substantially increasing the chance of no deal here0
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Lancing a boil is a form of drainage of encapsulated pus. Draining it externally to remove it from the body is the aim. Dispersing that toxic material into tissues causes sepsis. Festering is better than that.kyf_100 said:
What really fascinates me is the direct comparison between UKIP and the AFD. Under the British system, fear of UKIP at 12.6% led to the referendum - now for all the division that has come from that, one positive we can take from it is that it completely defused UKIP as a movement - by showing moderate Eurosceptics who were previously drawn towards the party that they were being listened to.foxinsoxuk said:
You need to keep perspective. AfD got 13 % of the vote, and Merkel, Schulz, Die Linke, FDP and the Greens got 87%. None of these could be described as far Right. Merkel is the preferred choice for Chancellor in all polls.kyf_100 said:
That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.TOPPING said:
Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.
Everyone's political career comes to an end at some point, but Merkel retains support.
As a medical man, I'm sure you believe it's best to lance a boil rather than let it fester. We have lanced our boil, in Germany the situation is likely to get worse and worse.
I don't think the 2015 migrant crisis was well handled, but the root cause was the facilitation of the crisis by the Turkish authorities, and the refugee convention that establishes rights when a toe has touched territory. Of course the real root cause is the appalling regimes that people were fleeing. 85% of the refugees were from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Eritrea.0 -
Ah, so it's just a ploy to keep the UK in the EU after all? What a surprise.CD13 said:Mr D,
"If MPs vote the deal down the EU is hardly going to give us a better deal, are they?"
No, but the MP's can force May back to ask for a non-leave deal.
Bryant has already stated that in the debate, and the EU will happily agree.
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I'm glad that we don't have Judges like this guy Moore in this country.
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Available vote:RobD said:
How many abstentions? Seems like quite a few.MikeL said:Grieve amendment:
309 - 305
Govt DEFEAT.
650 - 7 SF - 4 Speakers - 4 tellers = 635 in theory.
However I believe MPs who chair the Committee of the whole house (ie they act like a Speaker just for the committee) also don't vote - Lilley (Con) and Hanson (Lab) are two of these. If we allow four of these (approx) that would leave 631.
Implying (approx) 17 abstentions - which looks high.0 -
Ken went to Cambridge.Alanbrooke said:
nah Oxford Uni pillock fucks things up againTheScreamingEagles said:What a great day for Parliamentary sovereignty.
really we should shut the dump and turn it over to car manufacturing
Gonville & Caius is where all the cool kids go.0 -
Is this just the first reading?MikeL said:Grieve amendment:
309 - 305
Govt DEFEAT.
Can it be reversed at later readings or in Committee?0 -
Another unexpected backer of the amendment was Charlie Elphicke, the MP for Dover who is currently suspended from the Conservative whip over sexual harassment allegations. Elphicke said voters had backed Brexit partly because they wanted to support “the rule of law”.0
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The irony of it is that an amendment voted for by Remainers could end up being used by Brexiteers to sabotage a deal, which will end up scuppering Brexit altogether.Pulpstar said:Well done Tory remainders. Substantially increasing the chance of no deal here
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Govt wins this one.0
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The MPs can over-rule the voters.
"We desperately needed a deal we can live with, and we got the best in the circumstances," they will cry.
No matter that we are leaving in name only.0 -
Next amendment (Lab):
297 - 316
Back to normal service.
(Total vote 613 vs 614 on Grieve amendment - implying a fair number absent / paired)0 -
More than ever Mrs May really regrets pissing away Dave’s majority.0
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Mr Glenn,
For once, I agree with you.
The MP Leavers have a majority, but I just wish for once, they'd be honest about their intentions.
Edit: Sorry, I mean MP Remainers0 -
what if the government fails to strike a deal - does parliament still get a vote or can the government just walk away and WTO0
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Well he doesn't exactly owe any favours.TheScreamingEagles said:Another unexpected backer of the amendment was Charlie Elphicke, the MP for Dover who is currently suspended from the Conservative whip over sexual harassment allegations. Elphicke said voters had backed Brexit partly because they wanted to support “the rule of law”.
Does anyone have a complete list of rebels from each side ?0 -
Rejoice0
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He’s a staunch Leaver too.Pulpstar said:
Well he doesn't exactly owe any favours.TheScreamingEagles said:Another unexpected backer of the amendment was Charlie Elphicke, the MP for Dover who is currently suspended from the Conservative whip over sexual harassment allegations. Elphicke said voters had backed Brexit partly because they wanted to support “the rule of law”.
Does anyone have a complete list of rebels from each side ?0 -
A bot attempting to give advice to teenagers (nsfw);
https://youtu.be/iHhwxpFOtl0
Needs a bit of refining....0 -
the best thing leaver MPs can do is trigger leadership challenge in new year . install a true leaver PM and call an election . make the campaign about Brexit0
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Why do you think I’m so in favour of electoral and constitution reform?DavidL said:
The biggest problem is that this is yet another statute being required meaning that those waste of spacers in the HoL will be sticking their oar in yet again.TheScreamingEagles said:What a great day for Parliamentary sovereignty.
There’s a theory that this bill will be a money so their Lordships won’t be able to play silly beggars.0 -
I think May tried that one....kjohnw said:the best thing leaver MPs can do is trigger leadership challenge in new year . install a true leaver PM and call an election . make the campaign about Brexit
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Not in their power to call an election.kjohnw said:the best thing leaver MPs can do is trigger leadership challenge in new year . install a true leaver PM and call an election . make the campaign about Brexit
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Next amendment:
294 - 3150 -
Certain way to end Brexitkjohnw said:the best thing leaver MPs can do is trigger leadership challenge in new year . install a true leaver PM and call an election . make the campaign about Brexit
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she wasnt a true leaver and stupidly made the campaign about social careFrancisUrquhart said:
I think May tried that one....kjohnw said:the best thing leaver MPs can do is trigger leadership challenge in new year . install a true leaver PM and call an election . make the campaign about Brexit
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Shh, don't tell them.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Certain way to end Brexitkjohnw said:the best thing leaver MPs can do is trigger leadership challenge in new year . install a true leaver PM and call an election . make the campaign about Brexit
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Finally. Months after it was first teased, we finally have the government defeat on this amendment. Obviously not what the government wanted, but I'd be wary of too much reaction frankly - we already knew the government position was on a knife edge, and if the EU did not already know that they are idiots.0
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So staunch he ticked the remain boxTheScreamingEagles said:
He’s a staunch Leaver too.Pulpstar said:
Well he doesn't exactly owe any favours.TheScreamingEagles said:Another unexpected backer of the amendment was Charlie Elphicke, the MP for Dover who is currently suspended from the Conservative whip over sexual harassment allegations. Elphicke said voters had backed Brexit partly because they wanted to support “the rule of law”.
Does anyone have a complete list of rebels from each side ?0 -
That is what taking back control means in a country split down the middle. It requires a deal that gets majority support of our Parliament.williamglenn said:
The irony of it is that an amendment voted for by Remainers could end up being used by Brexiteers to sabotage a deal, which will end up scuppering Brexit altogether.Pulpstar said:Well done Tory remainders. Substantially increasing the chance of no deal here
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Can someone explain to me how this vote makes sense? The EU aren't going to roll over if parliament tells May to go back and negotiate a better deal especially after spending years negotiating the deal put to a parliamentary vote.
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The Government needs to move on.kle4 said:Finally. Months after it was first teased, we finally have the government defeat on this amendment. Obviously not what the government wanted, but I'd be wary of too much reaction frankly - we already knew the government position was on a knife edge, and if the EU did not already know that they are idiots.
Storm in a tea cup0 -
These Tories are in Alice in Wonderland mode. We've seen Barnier is a tough negotiator. If we don't like the deal well leave without one.foxinsoxuk said:
That is what taking back control means in a country split down the middle. It requires a deal that gets majority support of our Parliament.williamglenn said:
The irony of it is that an amendment voted for by Remainers could end up being used by Brexiteers to sabotage a deal, which will end up scuppering Brexit altogether.Pulpstar said:Well done Tory remainders. Substantially increasing the chance of no deal here
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A government defeat in parliament is not a storm in a teacup.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government needs to move on.kle4 said:Finally. Months after it was first teased, we finally have the government defeat on this amendment. Obviously not what the government wanted, but I'd be wary of too much reaction frankly - we already knew the government position was on a knife edge, and if the EU did not already know that they are idiots.
Storm in a tea cup0 -
I did warn that Mrs May’s shameful behaviour towards Charlie Elphicke would have dire consequences.Pulpstar said:
So staunch he ticked the remain boxTheScreamingEagles said:
He’s a staunch Leaver too.Pulpstar said:
Well he doesn't exactly owe any favours.TheScreamingEagles said:Another unexpected backer of the amendment was Charlie Elphicke, the MP for Dover who is currently suspended from the Conservative whip over sexual harassment allegations. Elphicke said voters had backed Brexit partly because they wanted to support “the rule of law”.
Does anyone have a complete list of rebels from each side ?
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I don't think amendments can be reversed?David_Evershed said:
Is this just the first reading?MikeL said:Grieve amendment:
309 - 305
Govt DEFEAT.
Can it be reversed at later readings or in Committee?0 -
It makes one despair of Western civilization. I only hope I live long enough to enjoy the schadenfreude of watching what happens to leftism once their friends start dictating social policy.SeanT said:
A senior journo friend of mine has just spent two years working for the German equivalent of the BBC (English-language version). He started in the beeb and he's a dyed-in-the-wool lefty. Hates Tories. We have happy arguments all the time, usually about politics, sometimes rugby (he's a Taff). All in all he is a top bloke.oxfordsimon said:
It is not just the number of terrorist incidents that is important - it is other incidents and the reaction of the authorities to them. That is where the real problems lie.TOPPING said:
How does the number of terrorist incidents in Germany vs here stack up?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Topping, enclaves, rising crime/terrorism, little integration, rowing back of crucial values (it's already happening with free speech).
Mr. Tyndall, any chance that MPs will try and make the choice between the deal or status quo (ie remaining)?
He said he was utterly shocked, when he moved to Berlin, to discover how much the news there is neutered and censored to fit a politically correct, centrist social democrat version of events, especially anything to do with race, asylum seekers, refugees, Islam. There is no attempt at balance, they don't even pretend to give both sides to an argument.
Stories of, say, refugees raping German women are simply not covered. "Too controversial". If a story is SO big it cannot, in the end, despite the best efforts of press and police, be entirely ignored (e.g. the Cologne New Year refugee rape spree), then it is presented in the most Guardian way possible: the story is "Oh no, now there will be a rightwing backlash", or "pity the poor refugees getting blamed for the trivial, laddish misbehaviour of a few". That's it.
My friend was so incensed by the lack of balance (and recall he is leftwing) he complained, e.g. he asked: why can't we have a spokesman here from AfD, to give an alternative view? And he was simply told to fuck off, this is Germany, this is how we do things, we don't want to give Nazis airtime, refugees are brilliant, go away.
He has now left, in despair, and runs the entire broadcasting network on a sunny rich Caribbean island, and good luck to him.
I think the situation in the German press is much more nuanced and fair, but German broadcast media is hideously biased to a liberal bien pensant point of view, and TV is where most Germans get their news. And Germans are more regimented in their thinking and will follow a party line more dutifully than bolshy Brits.
That's how Merkel has got herself re-elected despite her migration disasters. Germans are not told the news. They are told what to think.0 -
If the Government/Leavers want to blame anyone blame IDS. It was his snide, personal bitching at Grieve that appears to have cemented Grieve's resolve.0
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In the context of Brexit a narrow defeat is a storm in the tea cup.Jonathan said:
A government defeat in parliament is not a storm in a teacup.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government needs to move on.kle4 said:Finally. Months after it was first teased, we finally have the government defeat on this amendment. Obviously not what the government wanted, but I'd be wary of too much reaction frankly - we already knew the government position was on a knife edge, and if the EU did not already know that they are idiots.
Storm in a tea cup
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sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?0
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Democracy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In the context of Brexit a narrow defeat is a storm in the tea cup.Jonathan said:
A government defeat in parliament is not a storm in a teacup.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government needs to move on.kle4 said:Finally. Months after it was first teased, we finally have the government defeat on this amendment. Obviously not what the government wanted, but I'd be wary of too much reaction frankly - we already knew the government position was on a knife edge, and if the EU did not already know that they are idiots.
Storm in a tea cup0 -
Another one:
292 - 3110 -
Dr Fox,
The MPs voted for the referendum because not to do would leave them open to the accusation of being ant-democratic if they didn't. Now they've voted to have the final say, because that is their version of democracy.
They can force May to return and ask for a non-leave leave to which the EU will, of course, agree to. The alternative is a no-deal leave which can be blamed totally on May and the Tories.0 -
No it is not, but a single defeat even on a significant amendment is not a hurricane either, especially when a meaningful vote may not be all that much of a big deal in the first place (why the government didn't just concede is another matter, and that they didn't is why it isn't nothing).Jonathan said:
A government defeat in parliament is not a storm in a teacup.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government needs to move on.kle4 said:Finally. Months after it was first teased, we finally have the government defeat on this amendment. Obviously not what the government wanted, but I'd be wary of too much reaction frankly - we already knew the government position was on a knife edge, and if the EU did not already know that they are idiots.
Storm in a tea cup0 -
Agree to an extent but if the motive is to stop Brexit that is an affront to democracy.Jonathan said:
Democracy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In the context of Brexit a narrow defeat is a storm in the tea cup.Jonathan said:
A government defeat in parliament is not a storm in a teacup.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government needs to move on.kle4 said:Finally. Months after it was first teased, we finally have the government defeat on this amendment. Obviously not what the government wanted, but I'd be wary of too much reaction frankly - we already knew the government position was on a knife edge, and if the EU did not already know that they are idiots.
Storm in a tea cup
However, the defeat will not result in a no confidence vote or a GE, so a storm in a tea cup it is0 -
Parliament then gets a non meaningful vote.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
Democracy eh.0 -
RobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
if that’s true then the option of no deal is still leverage the government holds with the EU thus strengthening our negotiating hand, we can still walk away if we wantRobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
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0
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Fairly inevitableTheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/9410303657198755860 -
May finally gets to sack a Hammond.TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
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Fuckwittery of the highest order. And MPs wonder why they have a reputation lower than a snake’s pubic wart....Razedabode said:Can someone explain to me how this vote makes sense? The EU aren't going to roll over if parliament tells May to go back and negotiate a better deal especially after spending years negotiating the deal put to a parliamentary vote.
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Remember Montie is always wrong, as we learned when he was Chief of Staff to IDS when he was leader.
https://twitter.com/montie/status/9410290726914498560 -
I don’t think the UK’s leverage has increased with the passage of this amendment. Why would the EU change their stance just because the UK parliament asked them to?kjohnw said:RobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
if that’s true then the option of no deal is still leverage the government holds with the EU thus strengthening our negotiating hand, we can still walk away if we wantRobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
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Is there something wrong with a party taking action against rebels? Sometimes a lighter hand might be preferable, but surely the whole point of whipping is supposed to be that there are consequences to rebelling on the really big stuff. I've no problem with the amendment, other than mild confusion over what some people backing it think will happen as a result, but I'm not feeling the outrage of someone losing a position for going against what is current policy.TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/9410303657198755860 -
Sacked for defying a three lined whip? I’m not exactly surprised...TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/9410303657198755860 -
Corbyn measuring up #10 garden for his allotment.....and I'm on Kayak looking for flights to Canada.0
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And then MPs wonder why people think they're essentially trying to overturn a referendum result. To many, this seems like another way to try and reel back on Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
Fuckwittery of the highest order. And MPs wonder why they have a reputation lower than a snake’s pubic wart....Razedabode said:Can someone explain to me how this vote makes sense? The EU aren't going to roll over if parliament tells May to go back and negotiate a better deal especially after spending years negotiating the deal put to a parliamentary vote.
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She’s created yet another needless enemy.RobD said:
Sacked for defying a three lined whip? I’m not exactly surprised...TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/941030365719875586
But don’t worry her majority is so huge, she won’t have to worry about another malcontent on the backbenches.
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the point is despite the amendment the government can still just threaten to walk away from a bad deal and go WTORobD said:
I don’t think the UK’s leverage has increased with the passage of this amendment. Why would the EU change their stance just because the UK parliament asked them to?kjohnw said:RobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
if that’s true then the option of no deal is still leverage the government holds with the EU thus strengthening our negotiating hand, we can still walk away if we wantRobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
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Ministers/party officials defying three-lined whips shouldn’t be sacked?TheScreamingEagles said:
She’s created yet another needless enemy.RobD said:
Sacked for defying a three lined whip? I’m not exactly surprised...TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/941030365719875586
But don’t worry her majority is so huge, she won’t have to worry about another malcontent on the backbenches.0 -
Why are you an enemy of Parliamentary sovereignty?MarqueeMark said:
Fuckwittery of the highest order. And MPs wonder why they have a reputation lower than a snake’s pubic wart....Razedabode said:Can someone explain to me how this vote makes sense? The EU aren't going to roll over if parliament tells May to go back and negotiate a better deal especially after spending years negotiating the deal put to a parliamentary vote.
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O/t us the collection of German Expressionist paintings in Leicester any good?foxinsoxuk said:
Lancing a boil is a form of drainage of encapsulated pus. Draining it externally to remove it from the body is the aim. Dispersing that toxic material into tissues causes sepsis. Festering is better than that.kyf_100 said:
What really fascinates me is the direct comparison between UKIP and the AFD. Under the British system, fear of UKIP at 12.6% led to the referendum - now for all the division that has come from that, one positive we can take from it is that it completely defused UKIP as a movement - by showing moderate Eurosceptics who were previously drawn towards the party that they were being listened to.foxinsoxuk said:
You need to keep perspective. AfD got 13 % of the vote, and Merkel, Schulz, Die Linke, FDP and the Greens got 87%. None of these could be described as far Right. Merkel is the preferred choice for Chancellor in all polls.kyf_100 said:
That or the German electoral system is a grave warning to us all about how complicated voting systems make it incredibly difficult to bring about a change in government.TOPPING said:
Having been in power for 12 years and having come through elections successfully, I think you must operate on the assumption that a) she is not a moron; and b) she has and had a democratic mandate to do what she did; and c) no one else would have been able to do it any better.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Brooke, not really EU policy so much as Merkel being a moron.
Merkel has failed, utterly, and the AFD winning 94 seats is symptomatic of that. Yet still Merkel won't budge, and the AFD are, of course, too right wing to do business with.
Everyone's political career comes to an end at some point, but Merkel retains support.
As a medical man, I'm sure you believe it's best to lance a boil rather than let it fester. We have lanced our boil, in Germany the situation is likely to get worse and worse.
I don't think the 2015 migrant crisis was well handled, but the root cause was the facilitation of the crisis by the Turkish authorities, and the refugee convention that establishes rights when a toe has touched territory. Of course the real root cause is the appalling regimes that people were fleeing. 85% of the refugees were from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Eritrea.0 -
Why would someone willing to take a principled stand no matter that it might have consequence react so poorly to there being a consequence? They defied the whip, they have received a punishment. Is it proportionate? IDK, but a reasonable person would neither be vindictive to the rebel moving forward, not vindictive toward person rebelled against.TheScreamingEagles said:
She’s created yet another needless enemy.RobD said:
Sacked for defying a three lined whip? I’m not exactly surprised...TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/941030365719875586
But don’t worry her majority is so huge, she won’t have to worry about another malcontent on the backbenches.
Why does that create an enemy? So long as she doesn't go all the sacking of GO on the guy, why would this have longer consequences?0 -
Suspect quite a few of the rebels would lose their seats in a GETheScreamingEagles said:
She’s created yet another needless enemy.RobD said:
Sacked for defying a three lined whip? I’m not exactly surprised...TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/941030365719875586
But don’t worry her majority is so huge, she won’t have to worry about another malcontent on the backbenches.0 -
Not sure the EU would buy that. The one positive Incan see is that May could justifiably say she needs a better deal for it to pass Parliament. Not sure the EU wild be keen to adjust the deal after it had been agreed by both parties.kjohnw said:
the point is despite the amendment the government can still just threaten to walk away from a bad deal and go WTORobD said:
I don’t think the UK’s leverage has increased with the passage of this amendment. Why would the EU change their stance just because the UK parliament asked them to?kjohnw said:RobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
if that’s true then the option of no deal is still leverage the government holds with the EU thus strengthening our negotiating hand, we can still walk away if we wantRobD said:
Since there is no deal to approve, no.kjohnw said:sorry if i’m being thick but if no deal can be agreed by the government does parliament still get a meaningful vote?
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This isn’t a proportional response.RobD said:
Ministers/party officials defying three-lined whips shouldn’t be sacked?TheScreamingEagles said:
She’s created yet another needless enemy.RobD said:
Sacked for defying a three lined whip? I’m not exactly surprised...TheScreamingEagles said:A pound shop Gordon Brown.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/941030365719875586
But don’t worry her majority is so huge, she won’t have to worry about another malcontent on the backbenches.
Far too quick to sack him to look vindictive.0 -
because people parliament has become the enemy of the people’s sovereigntyTheScreamingEagles said:
Why are you an enemy of Parliamentary sovereignty?MarqueeMark said:
Fuckwittery of the highest order. And MPs wonder why they have a reputation lower than a snake’s pubic wart....Razedabode said:Can someone explain to me how this vote makes sense? The EU aren't going to roll over if parliament tells May to go back and negotiate a better deal especially after spending years negotiating the deal put to a parliamentary vote.
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