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System · December 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Alabama result are starting to trickle in…

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Pong · December 2017

fpt;

NickPalmer said:
Is there a link to the county-by-county results last time, to compare?

Even better;

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/htmlview?sle=true

Caveat Wasserman's assumptions....

RobD · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

rcs1000 · December 2017

Now I know I have £5 riding on this, but I think Jones might edge this.

NickPalmer · December 2017

Pong said:
fpt;

NickPalmer said:
Is there a link to the county-by-county results last time, to compare?
Even better;

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/htmlview?sle=true

Caveat Wasserman's assumptions....

Excellent, thanks.

williamglenn · December 2017

NY Times now projecting Jones +0.4%...

rcs1000 · December 2017

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:
Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%

Stereotomy · December 2017

https://i.imgur.com/IrjT3Pc.png Jones doing better than expected

rcs1000 · December 2017

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:
Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones
It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%

And now just +0.1%...

RobD · December 2017

Stereotomy said:
https://i.imgur.com/IrjT3Pc.png Jones doing better than expected

Would be even funnier if he had got so many votes it had underflowed.

Stereotomy · December 2017

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:
Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones
It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%
And now just +0.1%...

+-15%

RobD · December 2017

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:
Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones
It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%
And now just +0.1%...

+0.3% now

Andrew · December 2017

Pretty spectacular for Jones so far ...... but spectacular might only get him close to the line, not over it.

NickPalmer · December 2017

Bullock county seems to be the Islington North of Alabama? - virtually no Moore voters!

rcs1000 · December 2017

Talledega was Trump +25%.

It is now 26% reported, and has Jones ahead by close to 20%.

Jones is looking good.

HYUFD · December 2017

2% in

Jones 57%
Moore 42%
Write in 1%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

rcs1000 · December 2017

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

NickPalmer · December 2017

Betfair flips - Jones now a strong favourite at 1.35.

Stereotomy · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?

rcs1000 · December 2017

NickPalmer said:
Betfair flips - Jones now a strong favourite at 1.35.

If the big cities have better turnout than the countryside, then that's probably right.

NickPalmer · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

On the Alsten bookmarks he only has to exceed 39% but in fact has 61% with 42% counted?

rcs1000 · December 2017

Jones +0.6% according to the NYT

Stereotomy · December 2017

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:
Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.
Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?

538: "If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. He’d want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks."

Stereotomy · December 2017

I like that NYT is ordering by %reported

rcs1000 · December 2017

Stereotomy said:

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:
Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.
Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?
538: "If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. He’d want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks."

And I suspect that misses higher relative turnout in Birmingham and Montgomery.

rcs1000 · December 2017

NickPalmer said:

rcs1000 said:
Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.
On the Alsten bookmarks he only has to exceed 39% but in fact has 61% with 42% counted?

https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/alabama/

Stereotomy · December 2017

Moore now on 63% in Limestone with 77% reporting

MikeSmithson · December 2017

This is tight and I'm knackered and I'm going to bed.

RobD · December 2017

Stereotomy said:

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:
Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.
Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?
538: "If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. He’d want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks."

He's now up 24 points.

MikeSmithson · December 2017

Check this link for live Betfair pricing chart

https://betdata.io/alabama-election-2017

rcs1000 · December 2017

Stereotomy said:
Moore now on 63% in Limestone with 77% reporting

He got 73% last time around.

So that's a 10% "swing" to Jones. Which would result in a small Moore win.

*But*. Turnout in Limestone is down massively on 2016. How much will turnout be down in Democrat areas?

NickPalmer · December 2017

Taking my 110% profit (...on £5) and heading for bed. Looks like Jones but need the big city votes to be sure. Good night all!

HYUFD · December 2017

7% in

Jones 53.5%
Moore 45%
Write in 1.5%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

Stereotomy · December 2017

Things looking a bit better for Moore now than they were a few minutes ago

AndyJS · December 2017

Betfair favouring Jones by a margin not really justified by the results so far.

Pong · December 2017

There's a long way to go...

"Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +14 to Moore +15. The more we know, the narrower our range will be."

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

rcs1000 · December 2017

NYT now reckons Moore +0.4%!

rcs1000 · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
NYT now reckons Moore +0.4%!

and now +0.2%...

RobD · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
NYT now reckons Moore +0.4%!

Now +0.9%. Bring back the wobble on the needles.

rcs1000 · December 2017

Montgomery and Jefferson turnouts are absolutely key.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2017

CNN coverage of this is rubbish, not getting any real insight of what is going on.

HYUFD · December 2017

10% in

Moore 54%
Jones 44%
Write in 1%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

HYUFD · December 2017

15% in

Moore 50%
Jones 48%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

MikeSmithson · December 2017

I've cashed out on Betfair and now make a reasonable amount whoever wins

williamglenn · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
Montgomery and Jefferson turnouts are absolutely key.

Jones on 83% in Jefferson County with 25 of 172 precincts reporting.

rcs1000 · December 2017

NYT now Jones +0.2%

Stereotomy · December 2017

The predictit comment thread is intense. https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama

Stereotomy · December 2017

Stereotomy said:
The predictit comment thread is intense. https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama

Reading these comments I think I understand why these markets swerve so wildly with live results.

rcs1000 · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
NYT now Jones +0.2%

Moore +0.1%

rcs1000 · December 2017

What odds on a tie?

williamglenn · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
NYT now Jones +0.2%

Their model is all over the place.

FrancisUrquhart · December 2017

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:
NYT now Jones +0.2%
Moore +0.1%

What the modern equivalent of a hanging chad?

rcs1000 · December 2017

OK. I have work in about seven hours time.

Night all.

Andrew · December 2017

Jefferson numbers so far look a little low for Jones, too tired to dig into it more though.

Stereotomy · December 2017

From Wasserman: "The reason it’s so difficult to tell what’s happening so far: Alabama’s precincts are so racially polarized that quick swings are the rule, not the exception."

FrancisUrquhart · December 2017

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President Donald Trump signed into law on Tuesday legislation that bans the use of Kaspersky Lab within the U.S. government, capping a months-long effort to purge the Moscow-based antivirus firm from federal agencies amid concerns it was vulnerable to Kremlin influence. From a report:

HYUFD · December 2017

26% in

Moore 53%
Jones 45%

NYT forecasts tied and dead even

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Stereotomy · December 2017

NYT suddenly jumps to Jones +1.1, 57% chance

Stereotomy · December 2017

Now +2.7, 66%. Wow

Andrew · December 2017

Much better for Jones in Jefferson in that latest batch.

RobD · December 2017

Now +4.8%

HYUFD · December 2017

33% in

Moore 53%
Jones 47%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Pong · December 2017

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:
NYT now Jones +0.2%
Their model is all over the place.

NYT now make Jones 1/3, moore 3/1

betfair 1/5 5/1

predictit ~evens the pair.

rcs1000 · December 2017

OK. Let me go out on a limb here. I think Jones does this by close to 5%. My totally hacked together spreadsheet assumes all % continue as is, and that you can simply extrapolate by % in.

It gives it to Jones by 4.8%.

Andrew · December 2017

Jones might win Jefferson by >35% if it continues like this, that would be enough.

Stereotomy · December 2017

Risk is that the Jefferson precincts that have been counted aren't representative. NYT is probably doing very similar to rcs's hacked together spreadsheet. I wouldn't feel secure until the Jefferson reporting % is much higher

Pong · December 2017

I like NYT's confidence estimate.

I wonder if we can we persuade the NYT team to cover UK council byelections?

Stereotomy · December 2017

Nate Cohn saying that turnout is what's hurting Moore

Stereotomy · December 2017

NYT jumps to Jones +6.5, 85% chance

Stereotomy · December 2017

Now +8.3, 90%

RobD · December 2017

Jones now +8.3 on the forecast. They think it's all over....

Andrew · December 2017

Another very strong batch for Jones from Jefferson. He's way ahead of benchmark there.

HYUFD · December 2017

50% in

Moore 51.2%
Jones 47.5%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Pong · December 2017

Jones 1.05 is too overconfident.

I've laid.

He's probably still won this though.

Stereotomy · December 2017

And back to +4.5, 76%

JohnJacobJingle · December 2017

the odds on betfair are crazy, do people backing Jones at this price actually have their own model? it seems way off to me.

The_Woodpecker · December 2017

JohnJacobJingle said:
the odds on betfair are crazy, do people backing Jones at this price actually have their own model? it seems way off to me.

Agreed. Moore price coming in a little now...

HYUFD · December 2017

62% in

Moore 53%
Jones 46%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Andrew · December 2017

Soooo, Moore 7.4 ahead, and looks like Jones will close that gap by about 6% from remaining Jefferson/Montgomery alone, then approx another 2% combined from Mobile, Madison, Tuscaloosa and Dallas.

AndyJS · December 2017

JohnJacobJingle said:
the odds on betfair are crazy, do people backing Jones at this price actually have their own model? it seems way off to me.

I managed to back Moore at 15/1 a bit earlier, knowing it would narrow at some point.

Andrew · December 2017

Great dollop of Jefferson votes just hit the counters, continued v strong for Jones there.

Montgomery starts to be the more interesting now, only 3/99 reported.

JohnJacobJingle · December 2017

ok so based on results 100% in Moore is winning easily when compared with 2016 Senate. However none of the big counties are 100% in yet. Has anyone drilled down on the actual precincts?

JohnJacobJingle · December 2017

I'm only counting 22% of the vote at the moment.

The_Woodpecker · December 2017

Lead now 22k, was 50k...now up to 25k!

AndyJS · December 2017

JohnJacobJingle said:
ok so based on results 100% in Moore is winning easily when compared with 2016 Senate. However none of the big counties are 100% in yet. Has anyone drilled down on the actual precincts?

At the presidential election, the result in Jefferson County was Dem 51.55%, Rep 44.34%. At the moment, with about half the precincts in, it's Dem 82.9%, Rep 16.3%. Maybe suggests the Republican areas there haven't declared yet?

Andrew · December 2017

.... and more than half of Montgomery just got added. Jones +45 so far, he'll maybe want a bit more than that.

JohnJacobJingle · December 2017

yes that's what I'm wondering. Either the urban centres are completely different from the smaller counties in swing, or they are not comparing like with like.
How detailed is the NYT model? For big counties essential to compare by precinct, as 70% with 50% reporting doesn't necessarily mean that much.

RobD · December 2017

Welcome to PB, John!

Andrew · December 2017

Montgomery now running ahead of benchmark for Jones too.

Eyes on Baldwin, the last big bastion for Moore. Can maybe gain +10k or so there? (edit: just updated as I posted, maybe only +8k more to be had there)

HYUFD · December 2017

81% in

Moore 49.6%
Jones 48.9%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

JohnJacobJingle · December 2017

> Welcome to PB, John!

Thanks I've been here before during the last US election, but not sure what name I used.

williamglenn · December 2017

HYUFD said:
Moore 49.6%
Jones 48.9%

Me and Mister Jones... We got a swing goin' on...

HYUFD · December 2017

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:
Moore 49.6%
Jones 48.9%
Me and Mister Jones... We got a swing goin' on...

Now Moore 49.4%
Jones 49%

85% in

Andrew · December 2017

Think that's it for Moore - neck and neck reported, and what's still to report he's going to lose by miles.

HYUFD · December 2017

86% in and tied

Moore 49.2%
Jones 49.2%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Barnesian · December 2017

Jones is ahead

Nigelb · December 2017

Still a squeaker...
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/12/alabama-election-results-2017-293309

The_Woodpecker · December 2017

Crossover at 86%!

HYUFD · December 2017

Jones now takes a small lead with 86% in

Jones 49.3%
Moore 49.1%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Looks like a narrow Jones win and first Democratic Senator in Alabama for 25 years

Goodnight

Andrew · December 2017

This looks like it'll be spot on:
"HARRY ENTEN 9:52 PM
I’ll note, for what it’s worth, that the exit poll adjustment based on actual votes has Jones winning by between 2 and 3 percentage points."

edmundintokyo · December 2017

rcs1000 said:
OK. Let me go out on a limb here. I think Jones does this by close to 5%. My totally hacked together spreadsheet assumes all % continue as is, and that you can simply extrapolate by % in.

It gives it to Jones by 4.8%.

This is a really fascinating race but to top it off we have a nail-biting rcs1000 vs Miscellaneous Punditry contest as well.