politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Alabama result are starting to trickle in…

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Alabama result are starting to trickle in…

politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).

Read the full story here

Pong

fpt;

NickPalmer said:

Is there a link to the county-by-county results last time, to compare?

Even better;

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/htmlview?sle=true

Caveat Wasserman's assumptions....

RobD

rcs1000 said:

Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

rcs1000

Now I know I have £5 riding on this, but I think Jones might edge this.

NickPalmer

Pong said:

fpt;

NickPalmer said:

Is there a link to the county-by-county results last time, to compare?

Even better;

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1c9-tuc5E1ZzTEqecVp0D-cpxu2ab3ug9_XEt6R9vMcw/htmlview?sle=true

Caveat Wasserman's assumptions....

Excellent, thanks.

williamglenn

NY Times now projecting Jones +0.4%...

rcs1000

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%

Stereotomy

https://i.imgur.com/IrjT3Pc.png Jones doing better than expected

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%

And now just +0.1%...

RobD

Stereotomy said:

https://i.imgur.com/IrjT3Pc.png Jones doing better than expected

Would be even funnier if he had got so many votes it had underflowed.

Stereotomy

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%

And now just +0.1%...

+-15%

RobD

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

Based on the data so far, NY Times has Jones +0.2% as the final result.

They've got rid of the wiggle. Will be fun to watch how the bottom chart evolves

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

It's now reckoning Jones +0.4%

And now just +0.1%...

+0.3% now

Andrew

Pretty spectacular for Jones so far ...... but spectacular might only get him close to the line, not over it.

NickPalmer

Bullock county seems to be the Islington North of Alabama? - virtually no Moore voters!

rcs1000

Talledega was Trump +25%.

It is now 26% reported, and has Jones ahead by close to 20%.

Jones is looking good.

HYUFD

2% in

Jones 57%
Moore 42%
Write in 1%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

rcs1000

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

NickPalmer

Betfair flips - Jones now a strong favourite at 1.35.

Stereotomy

rcs1000 said:

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?

rcs1000

NickPalmer said:

Betfair flips - Jones now a strong favourite at 1.35.

If the big cities have better turnout than the countryside, then that's probably right.

NickPalmer

rcs1000 said:

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

On the Alsten bookmarks he only has to exceed 39% but in fact has 61% with 42% counted?

rcs1000

Jones +0.6% according to the NYT

Stereotomy

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?

538: "If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. He’d want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks."

Stereotomy

I like that NYT is ordering by %reported

rcs1000

Stereotomy said:

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?

538: "If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. He’d want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks."

And I suspect that misses higher relative turnout in Birmingham and Montgomery.

rcs1000

NickPalmer said:

rcs1000 said:

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

On the Alsten bookmarks he only has to exceed 39% but in fact has 61% with 42% counted?

https://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/alabama/

Stereotomy

Moore now on 63% in Limestone with 77% reporting

MikeSmithson

This is tight and I'm knackered and I'm going to bed.

RobD

Stereotomy said:

Stereotomy said:

rcs1000 said:

Limestone, Jones outperforming by 31%. Which is not quite enough.

Really? I have him doing just a shade better than needed according to the Wasserman spreadsheet?

538: "If you want an example of Moore underperforming, look to Limestone. We now have half the vote in there. Moore is up by 17 percentage points. He’d want a margin closer to 20-22 percent, based on the benchmarks."

He's now up 24 points.

MikeSmithson

Check this link for live Betfair pricing chart

https://betdata.io/alabama-election-2017

rcs1000

Stereotomy said:

Moore now on 63% in Limestone with 77% reporting

He got 73% last time around.

So that's a 10% "swing" to Jones. Which would result in a small Moore win.

*But*. Turnout in Limestone is down massively on 2016. How much will turnout be down in Democrat areas?

NickPalmer

Taking my 110% profit (...on £5) and heading for bed. Looks like Jones but need the big city votes to be sure. Good night all!

HYUFD

7% in

Jones 53.5%
Moore 45%
Write in 1.5%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

Stereotomy

Things looking a bit better for Moore now than they were a few minutes ago

AndyJS

Betfair favouring Jones by a margin not really justified by the results so far.

Pong

There's a long way to go...

"Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +14 to Moore +15. The more we know, the narrower our range will be."

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

rcs1000

NYT now reckons Moore +0.4%!

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

NYT now reckons Moore +0.4%!

and now +0.2%...

RobD

rcs1000 said:

NYT now reckons Moore +0.4%!

Now +0.9%. Bring back the wobble on the needles.

rcs1000

Montgomery and Jefferson turnouts are absolutely key.

FrancisUrquhart

CNN coverage of this is rubbish, not getting any real insight of what is going on.

HYUFD

10% in

Moore 54%
Jones 44%
Write in 1%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

HYUFD

15% in

Moore 50%
Jones 48%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share

MikeSmithson

I've cashed out on Betfair and now make a reasonable amount whoever wins

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

Montgomery and Jefferson turnouts are absolutely key.

Jones on 83% in Jefferson County with 25 of 172 precincts reporting.

rcs1000

NYT now Jones +0.2%

Stereotomy

The predictit comment thread is intense. https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama

Stereotomy

Stereotomy said:

The predictit comment thread is intense. https://www.predictit.org/Market/3299/Who-will-win-the-2017-US-Senate-special-election-in-Alabama

Reading these comments I think I understand why these markets swerve so wildly with live results.

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

NYT now Jones +0.2%

Moore +0.1%

rcs1000

What odds on a tie?

williamglenn

rcs1000 said:

NYT now Jones +0.2%

Their model is all over the place.

FrancisUrquhart

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

NYT now Jones +0.2%

Moore +0.1%

What the modern equivalent of a hanging chad?

rcs1000

OK. I have work in about seven hours time.

Night all.

Andrew

Jefferson numbers so far look a little low for Jones, too tired to dig into it more though.

Stereotomy

From Wasserman: "The reason it’s so difficult to tell what’s happening so far: Alabama’s precincts are so racially polarized that quick swings are the rule, not the exception."

FrancisUrquhart

Government Ban on Kaspersky Lab Software

President Donald Trump signed into law on Tuesday legislation that bans the use of Kaspersky Lab within the U.S. government, capping a months-long effort to purge the Moscow-based antivirus firm from federal agencies amid concerns it was vulnerable to Kremlin influence. From a report:

HYUFD

26% in

Moore 53%
Jones 45%

NYT forecasts tied and dead even

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Stereotomy

NYT suddenly jumps to Jones +1.1, 57% chance

Stereotomy

Now +2.7, 66%. Wow

Andrew

Much better for Jones in Jefferson in that latest batch.

RobD

Now +4.8%

HYUFD

33% in

Moore 53%
Jones 47%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Pong

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

NYT now Jones +0.2%

Their model is all over the place.

NYT now make Jones 1/3, moore 3/1

betfair 1/5 5/1

predictit ~evens the pair.

rcs1000

OK. Let me go out on a limb here. I think Jones does this by close to 5%. My totally hacked together spreadsheet assumes all % continue as is, and that you can simply extrapolate by % in.

It gives it to Jones by 4.8%.

Andrew

Jones might win Jefferson by >35% if it continues like this, that would be enough.

Stereotomy

Risk is that the Jefferson precincts that have been counted aren't representative. NYT is probably doing very similar to rcs's hacked together spreadsheet. I wouldn't feel secure until the Jefferson reporting % is much higher

Pong

I like NYT's confidence estimate.

I wonder if we can we persuade the NYT team to cover UK council byelections?

Stereotomy

Nate Cohn saying that turnout is what's hurting Moore

Stereotomy

NYT jumps to Jones +6.5, 85% chance

Stereotomy

Now +8.3, 90%

RobD

Jones now +8.3 on the forecast. They think it's all over....

Andrew

Another very strong batch for Jones from Jefferson. He's way ahead of benchmark there.

HYUFD

50% in

Moore 51.2%
Jones 47.5%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Pong

Jones 1.05 is too overconfident.

I've laid.

He's probably still won this though.

Stereotomy

And back to +4.5, 76%

JohnJacobJingle

the odds on betfair are crazy, do people backing Jones at this price actually have their own model? it seems way off to me.

The_Woodpecker

JohnJacobJingle said:

the odds on betfair are crazy, do people backing Jones at this price actually have their own model? it seems way off to me.

Agreed. Moore price coming in a little now...

HYUFD

62% in

Moore 53%
Jones 46%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Andrew

Soooo, Moore 7.4 ahead, and looks like Jones will close that gap by about 6% from remaining Jefferson/Montgomery alone, then approx another 2% combined from Mobile, Madison, Tuscaloosa and Dallas.

AndyJS

JohnJacobJingle said:

the odds on betfair are crazy, do people backing Jones at this price actually have their own model? it seems way off to me.

I managed to back Moore at 15/1 a bit earlier, knowing it would narrow at some point.

Andrew

Great dollop of Jefferson votes just hit the counters, continued v strong for Jones there.

Montgomery starts to be the more interesting now, only 3/99 reported.

JohnJacobJingle

ok so based on results 100% in Moore is winning easily when compared with 2016 Senate. However none of the big counties are 100% in yet. Has anyone drilled down on the actual precincts?

JohnJacobJingle

I'm only counting 22% of the vote at the moment.

The_Woodpecker

Lead now 22k, was 50k...now up to 25k!

AndyJS

JohnJacobJingle said:

ok so based on results 100% in Moore is winning easily when compared with 2016 Senate. However none of the big counties are 100% in yet. Has anyone drilled down on the actual precincts?

At the presidential election, the result in Jefferson County was Dem 51.55%, Rep 44.34%. At the moment, with about half the precincts in, it's Dem 82.9%, Rep 16.3%. Maybe suggests the Republican areas there haven't declared yet?

Andrew

.... and more than half of Montgomery just got added. Jones +45 so far, he'll maybe want a bit more than that.

JohnJacobJingle

yes that's what I'm wondering. Either the urban centres are completely different from the smaller counties in swing, or they are not comparing like with like.
How detailed is the NYT model? For big counties essential to compare by precinct, as 70% with 50% reporting doesn't necessarily mean that much.

RobD

Welcome to PB, John!

Andrew

Montgomery now running ahead of benchmark for Jones too.

Eyes on Baldwin, the last big bastion for Moore. Can maybe gain +10k or so there? (edit: just updated as I posted, maybe only +8k more to be had there)

HYUFD

81% in

Moore 49.6%
Jones 48.9%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

JohnJacobJingle

> Welcome to PB, John!

Thanks I've been here before during the last US election, but not sure what name I used.

williamglenn

HYUFD said:

Moore 49.6%
Jones 48.9%

Me and Mister Jones... We got a swing goin' on...

HYUFD

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

Moore 49.6%
Jones 48.9%

Me and Mister Jones... We got a swing goin' on...

Now Moore 49.4%
Jones 49%

85% in

Andrew

Think that's it for Moore - neck and neck reported, and what's still to report he's going to lose by miles.

HYUFD

86% in and tied

Moore 49.2%
Jones 49.2%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Barnesian

Jones is ahead

Nigelb

Still a squeaker...
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/12/alabama-election-results-2017-293309

The_Woodpecker

Crossover at 86%!

HYUFD

Jones now takes a small lead with 86% in

Jones 49.3%
Moore 49.1%

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones?smid=tw-share#eln-forecast-section

Looks like a narrow Jones win and first Democratic Senator in Alabama for 25 years

Goodnight

Andrew

This looks like it'll be spot on:
"HARRY ENTEN 9:52 PM
I’ll note, for what it’s worth, that the exit poll adjustment based on actual votes has Jones winning by between 2 and 3 percentage points."

edmundintokyo

rcs1000 said:

OK. Let me go out on a limb here. I think Jones does this by close to 5%. My totally hacked together spreadsheet assumes all % continue as is, and that you can simply extrapolate by % in.

It gives it to Jones by 4.8%.

This is a really fascinating race but to top it off we have a nail-biting rcs1000 vs Miscellaneous Punditry contest as well.