politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could the first by-election of the 2017 Parliament be at Ashfo

So we could have three by elections in Kent in 2018.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who would have thought that both Sir Micky Fallon and Damian Green would go in sex scandals before Boris.

Maybe Bonking Boris is always the perfect gentleman with the ladies?

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Who would have thought that both Sir Micky Fallon and Damian Green would go in sex scandals before Boris.

Maybe Bonking Boris is always the perfect gentleman with the ladies?

There's a joke to be made about his sexual performance and pulling out of leadership contests but then this is a family friendly website and I'm a good Muslim boy.

Mr. Eagles, ha, I stand corrected.

My knowledge of geography so far south it's almost French is not very strong, I confess.

Decent result for both Labour and the Tories here at the GE. Looks like the good voters of Ashford have decided it is probably the blue team but they haven't completely written off the red team !

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, ha, I stand corrected.

My knowledge of geography so far south it's almost French is not very strong, I confess.

The only map we need.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only map we need.

Did you see the first episode of The Grand Tour?

@JGForsyth: Damian Green not in his usual seat for Theresa May's statement on the Brexit negotiations

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only map we need.

Did you see the first episode of The Grand Tour?

I did.

Having called Canterbury completely wrong before the general election I shall refrain from making any predictions.

The only thing I will say is that there has been a truly massive amount of residential development around Ashford and the demographics in the constituency must be shifting. So past voting patterns won't necessarily be a good guide to what will happen next time.

I struggle to see where the 15% Con-Lab swing required for a Labour gain here in Ashford would come from.

I'd have thought their votes would be concentrated around the town of Ashford itself, whilst the Conservatives would be strong in the rural areas.

But, I hope Green stays.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Tory Party's social media are doing their damnedest to force me out of the Tory party.

https://twitter.com/CCHQPress/status/940245282062766081

(*) Needed on that poster I think ?

Also when are Scots and English & Welsh law becoming intertwined ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

So Green's goner, is he?

Presumably it was the cover up rather than any offence.

The alleged smearing might what gets him into trouble.

As in smearing then licking it off again?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

FPT: Good afternoon, everyone.

Mildly amused the EU repeatedly says nothing's agree until everything's agreed, and when Davis makes a similar comment suddenly people are wetting themselves.

On-topic: interesting possibility. Would seem to be a two horse race.

Mr. Eagles, if May's seat is the second, whose would be the third?

Eesh, I see your grasp of history is only matched by your grasp of geography.

Maidenhead is in Berkshire.

The other Kent seats that might see by-elections are Thanet South and Dover.

What’s happening re Charlie Elphicke?

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/940245549932011520

Tissue_Price said:

One for https://twitter.com/igavels . Who I see have already picked up on it!

But do Scottish judges use gavels? Or Northern Irish ones?

(I genuinely have no idea. Anybody know?)

@MatthewOToole2: Subtle but interesting change in the PM statement vs text of agreement on purpose of full alignment. Text refers to preservation of "all-island economy". Instead she said "economic cooperation across the island". Not sure they are the same thing.

The tone on both sides of the House on Brexit suggests the whole thing is increasingly being played as an Ealing comedy.

We just need somebody to break the fourth wall and ask, "Who wrote this rubbish?"

New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

The tone on both sides of the House on Brexit suggests the whole thing is increasingly being played as an Ealing comedy.

We just need somebody to break the fourth wall and ask, "Who wrote this rubbish?"

Boris Johnson or David Davis as Brian Rix?

Boris is probably more often without trousers in ‘unusual’ situations. Allegedly!

Barnesian said:

New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.

Could spoil Trump’s Christmas. Oh dear!!

With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

Damian Green 'says he will not quit but will have to be SACKED' over claims he had porn on his office computer as Theresa May is expected to decide his fate within days

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5167409/Damian-Green-not-quit-SACKED.html#ixzz50y9MDp7X

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

#Esther4HealthSec

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

#Esther4HealthSec

That would make my Christmas

rkrkrk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.

PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

Such brilliant insight and for free.

surbiton said:

Barnesian said:

New poll puts Jones 10% ahead.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/11/poll-alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-doug-jones-217287

Jones is still available at 4.5 on Betfair.

If this does not come about my faith in democracy will tumble. What's the point if child molesters get elected after it has been widely discussed ? And most of his ardent supporters are serious churchgoers.

I can imagine his supporters demanding the banning of Lolitas from shopping malls.

@JGForsyth: Anna Soubry praising Theresa May's plan and attacking Labour's position is bound to make Tory Brexiteers nervous

Mr. NorthWales, for now.

The Pompeians were full of beans before Pharsalus.

Paging Pong


https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/940255082582507520

UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

Carolus_Rex said:

Tissue_Price said:

One for https://twitter.com/igavels . Who I see have already picked up on it!

But do Scottish judges use gavels? Or Northern Irish ones?

(I genuinely have no idea. Anybody know?)

Scottish ones don't. Who knows what they get up to in Northern Ireland?

Mr. L, I hope you're not questioning the economic excellence of Finance Commissar Comrade McDonnell.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paging Pong


https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/940255082582507520

How exactly do you live in a small company?

Perhaps the curbs will be foussed on Buy-to-Let mortgages?

Just listening to Tezza on rewind.

"Fallback option of last resort."

Not so catchy, is it. Pretty darned important, that said!

No wonder Soubry is praising Tezza.

rkrkrk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rkrkrk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.

PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

Such brilliant insight and for free.

Indeed - we need more articles from that thread writer and rather fewer from whoever it was who tipped Michael Fallon.

But yes - if Hunt comes good, I will certainly make a donation!

That guy's a tool, he tipped Roy Moore to win at 4/6

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

I read an article somewhere in the last week or so where it said banks were moving away from lending to SME's because it required them to hold more capital relatively speaking than for mortgage lending . I think this is about that.

Not to mention this little thing called 'limited liability'.

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

UK shadow chancellor John McDonnell is considering making mortgage lending more onerous for British banks in an effort to push them to lend more to smaller companies.

The proposals were set out in “Financing Investment”, a report commissioned by the Labour leadership and written by GFC Economics, an independent economic research firm.

The report, which was published on Monday, also suggests that the Bank of England should be moved to Birmingham.

According to GFC, British banks are “diverting resources” away from vital industries and instead focusing on unproductive lending, such as consumer credit borrowing.

The paper argues that the Prudential Regulation Authority, the BoE’s City regulator, should use existing powers to make banks hold relatively more capital against their mortgage lending. The report’s authors say this would be an “incentive to boost SME lending growth”.

It could be politically risky to implement a policy that could diminish the supply of mortgages,

I read an article somewhere in the last week or so where it said banks were moving away from lending to SME's because it required them to hold more capital relatively speaking than for mortgage lending . I think this is about that.

Basel III risk weighting. Which is more likely to default and significantly less enthusiastic about providing credit support?

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

@JGForsyth: Anna Soubry praising Theresa May's plan and attacking Labour's position is bound to make Tory Brexiteers nervous

Rightly so. They'll soon have to explain why Brexit is nothing more than EU membership without the voting rights. The Tory party will be dead as a euro-sceptic force and Farage will feast on the carcass.

UKIPs gone and it aint coming back.

May refuses to rule out that 'full alignment' means keeping the common external tariff.

TheScreamingEagles said:

rkrkrk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With Damien Green missing and Jeremy Hunt in his place is Jeremy on his way to DPM and how about a new health sec and who

Hunt is still 28/1 as next Tory leader.
Surely that will plummet if he becomes DPM.

PB is so lucky that they had a thread writer who tipped Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.

Such brilliant insight and for free.

Yep - you, Nostradamus... and Diane Abbott.

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paging Pong


https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/940255082582507520

How exactly do you live in a small company?

Many small companies once had a flat above the business to live in.

The problem with a political betting site is that it leads to overspeculation based on how things look at a particular moment in time rather than cool analysis, and the greatest gains are to be made by predicting the most unlikely thing to happen.

Theresa May was never going to resign on the day after the general election. No prime minister in 400 years has ever resigned after being returned to power after a general election, and the Tories would rightly have been accused of undemocratically ditching the leader that had been chosen by the electorate as its preferred prime minister, and replacing her with one with no democratic mandate.

Damien Green might have to resign, but he is unlikely to stand down as an MP. Labour did not come a good second in 2017, it was 30 points behind the Tories in 2017. Canterbury was won because of the university students who lived there.

With regard to by elections in general, governments usually do lose them mid term. Neil Kinnock won sensational victories. in the 80s, early 90s, and was ahead in the polls for 8 out of 9 years -except at general election time. He was ahead by far more than Corbyn.

Green is unlikely to stand down as an MP, but the Tories need to lose 7 by elections to be in danger of brought down, and in 6 months there have been none. On that average it would take nearly 4 years for the Tories to be in danger.

The next election will almost certainly be in 2022. The Tories will have another leader, a better manifesto and line of attack against Labour, and those older people who did not turn out in 2017, will turn out in droves now they know that Corbyn is a threat.

stevef said:

The next election will almost certainly be in 2022. The Tories will have another leader, a better manifesto and line of attack against Labour, and those older people who did not turn out in 2017, will turn out in droves now they know that Corbyn is a threat.

Only part of your analysis I disagree with is that there's every chance Corbyn will be gone by 2022.

Mr. Thompson, how do you see Corbyn going?

Philip_Thompson said:

stevef said:

The next election will almost certainly be in 2022. The Tories will have another leader, a better manifesto and line of attack against Labour, and those older people who did not turn out in 2017, will turn out in droves now they know that Corbyn is a threat.

Only part of your analysis I disagree with is that there's every chance Corbyn will be gone by 2022.

I hope Corbyn is gone. I would happily vote for someone like Emily Thornberry, or any non Corbynista leader. Corbyn is so vain however, laps up all the Stalinist adoration, I cant see him standing down.

The_Apocalypse said:

If Labour want to make it harder to get a mortgage at a time when people are struggling to get on the housing ladder then they can wave goodbye to any prospect of getting power.
.

Surely the true Corbynistas don't want to get on the housing ladder?